Investor Presentation • Feb 14, 2019
Investor Presentation
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| Start - finish | Time (min) | Subject | Presenter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 - 09:15 | 15 | 1. Financial update | Rolf Barmen/Birte Strander |
| 09:15 - 09:40 | 25 | 2. CEO state of the union | Rolf Barmen |
| 09:40 - 09:50 | 10 | Q&A | |
| 09:50 - 10:10 | 20 | 3. Regulations and M&A | Arnstein Flaskerud |
| 10:10 - 10:25 | 15 | 4. The Power market and the Fjordkraft Factory | Ingeborg Morken |
| 10:25 - 10:35 | 10 | Q&A | |
| 10:35 - 10:45 | 10 | Break | |
| 10:45 - 11:00 | 15 | 5. Consumer segment | Christian Kalvenes |
| 11:00 - 11:15 | 15 | 6. Business segment | Roger Finnanger |
| 11:15 - 11:25 | 10 | Q&A | |
| 11:25 - 11:30 | 5 | 7. Concluding remarks | Rolf Barmen |
| 11:30 - 12:00 | 30 | Lunch |
Rolf Barmen Chief Executive Officer
Birte Strander Chief Financial Officer
Arnstein Flaskerud EVP - Head of Strategy and M&A
Christian Kalvenes EVP - Head of Consumer
Ingeborg Morken EVP - Head of Operations
Roger Finnanger
Alf Kåre Hjartnes EVP - Head of Technology
Jeanne Tjomsland EVP - Head of Group Marketing, Communications & HR
Solfrid Aase EVP - Head of Alliance
Rolf Barmen (CEO)
3
Strong performance in a competitive quarter
| • | Adjusted net revenue was NOK 304.6m, +15% YoY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | -- | ----------------------------------------------- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Quarter over quarter growth:
| Key Highlights | |
|---|---|
| 2 # of deliveries (end of period) |
Net change in # of deliveries |
| 604 973 | 8 687 |
| Increase of 14 % YoY |
Of which org. growth: 2 108 |
| 3 Volume sold |
Gross revenue |
| 3 961 GWh | NOK 2 179,1m |
| Increase of 9 % YoY |
Increase of 55 % YoY |
| 4 Net revenue (adj.) 2 |
4 EBIT (adj.) K6 |
| NOK 304,6m |
NOK 107,1m |
| Increase of 15 % YoY 9 |
35 % Adj. EBIT margin (this q.) K7 |
| EPS (reported) | K13NIBD (cash) |
| NOK 0,68 |
(NOK 131,2m) |
| Increase of 5 % YoY |
K19NIBD/LTM EBITDA: -0,27 |
Sources: Company information
4) Adj. Net revenue and EBIT are reported figures adjusted for any estimate deviations on sales and distribution of electricity related to previous reporting periods and unallocated items (incl. unrealised gains and losses on financial derivatives, depreciations from acquisitions and non-recurring cost/revenue)
Birte Strander (CFO)
5 pp adj. EBIT margin contraction YoY
Volume growth accounting for ~60% of the adj. net revenue improvement
6 pp adj. EBIT margin improvement YoY, driven by scale and net revenue growth
Adj. net revenue growth driven by Mobile
Sources: Company information
Birte Strander (CFO)
| Capital Markets Day | 2019
competitive market
Sources: Company information 1) 2018 figures are not audited 2) All targets are on an organic basis
at a higher level than expected in a
• EBIT margin stronger than targeted, driven by net revenue performance
3) Implies an EBIT margin within the specified range, depending on interpretation
| Status | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group |
Ambition to act as a consolidator in a fragmented market | Three acquisitions in 2018 |
|||
| Acquisition | # of deliveries |
Purchase price |
Expected annual synergies 2018 |
Expected annual synergies 2019 |
Status |
| TrønderEnergi Marked |
~61,200 | 278 NOKm | >5 NOKm | >15 NOKm | |
| Oppdal Everk |
~5,200 | 18 NOKm | – | ~1 NOKm | Synergies realized as expected in 2018 Well on track in 2019 |
| Etne Kraftlag |
~1,600 | Confidential (at seller's request) |
– | ~0,5 NOKm | |
| Targeted to be in the area of NOK 35 – 40m annually on an organic basis over the next three Cap.ex. In line with targets (34 NOKm) years |
|||||
| Dividend |
Attractive and increasing dividend Target pay-out ratio of at least 80% (based on adjusted net income) |
Proposed dividend of 2.2 NOK per share2,3 |
2) Subject to approval at the annual general meeting
3) How the dividend is calculated:
[(Adjusted EBIT + net finance)*(1-average tax rate) – amortisation of acquisition debt]*pay-out ratio [(390 NOKm+5 NOKm)*(1-23.6%)-27.8 NOKm]*83.9%=229.9 NOKm, equivalent of a DPS of 2.2 NOK
Rolf Barmen (CEO)
Oslo, 14th February
1.4 million people are supplied with electricity from Fjordkraft!
Source: Company information 1) Number of deliveries and subscribers at the end of 2018
= Share of 2018 net revenues (adj.)
Source: Company information
1) NGAAP until 2015, IFRS for 2016 and 2017. 2016, 2017 and 2018 excluding estimate deviations, other gains & losses, special items and depreciation of acquisitions
| We observe that | We believe that |
|---|---|
| • Our industry is fragmented • Our business environment is becoming increasingly more complex • All retail business across all industries suffer from deflation sooner or later • All winning players across all industries possess competitive advantages |
• We are in a pole position to act as the consolidator • Our products still need to be actively sold • Managing share of wallet and price elasticity is key to maintain profitability • We possess and are able to maintain well defined competitive advantages |
| Our observations and our beliefs are transformed into a clear business plan and roadmap to growth |
We observe that We believe that
XXk = Number of electricity deliveries
Management and organisation with ambition to consolidate
Scale including 'Fjordkraft Factory' supporting ability to
Alliance offering building relations to regional / local utilities
Profile adding to attractiveness as partner to utilities
Substantial financial fire power
Listed shares as an attractive acquisition currency
Our observations and our beliefs are transformed into a clear business plan and roadmap to growth
Sources: Company information
| We observe that | We believe that |
|---|---|
| • Complexity fuels consolidation |
|
| • Complexity increases |
• GAAFA companies likely to search for partners like us |
| • Electricity needs to be sold |
• Small disruptive players likely to search for partners like us |
| • Larger companies more profitable |
• For big companies outside the industry, |
| • Lower tech barriers, increased commercial barriers, increased financial barriers |
leveraging brand awareness and sales distribution systems into electricity retailing will not be accretive |
| • Foreign competitors deciding to enter the Norwegian market, might find Fjordkraft attractive |
Our observations and our beliefs are transformed into a clear business plan and roadmap to growth
Our observations and our beliefs are transformed into a clear business plan and roadmap to growth
We observe that We believe that
• Winning players across all industries possess competitive advantages
Our observations and our beliefs are transformed into a clear business plan and roadmap to growth
| Group | Targeting high-single digit net revenue growth on an organic basis Targeting a stable EBIT margin on an organic basis Ambition to act as a consolidator in a fragmented market |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth Targeting mid-single digit net revenue growth on an organic basis |
|||||
| Consumer | EBIT Targeted to gradually go down towards a sustainable level of slightly above 30% on an organic basis, driven by increased margin competition |
||||
| Targeting around double digit net revenue growth on an organic basis Growth |
|||||
| Business | EBIT Targeted to increase to above 55% on an organic basis, driven by scale effects margin |
||||
| New growth initiatives |
Targeting substantial growth in number of customers in both Extended Alliance and Mobile EBIT loss in 2019 targeted lower than 2018. Positive run rate EBIT expected from second half of 2020 |
||||
| Cap.ex. | Targeted to be in the area of NOK 40m annually on an organic basis |
||||
| Leverage | Moderate leverage with variations intra-year due to seasonality in net working capital Current balance sheet enabling substantial capacity to finance acquisitions |
||||
| Dividend | Attractive and increasing dividend Target pay-out ratio of at least 80% of net income, adjusted for certain cash and non-cash items2 |
1) Base line for the financial targets is adjusted 2018 financials. All targets are adjusted figures
2) Adjusted EBIT + net finance – estimated tax – amortisation of acquisition debt
Arnstein Flaskerud (EVP Head of Strategy and M&A)
Oslo, 14th February
Sources: Company information
Sources: Company information
2 million (+0.8 million) people supplied with electricity from Fjordkraft
875k deliveries (+235k) through growing the customer base
Organic
Alliance
M&A
Vision / Target
The market is evolving in a direction of increased complexity in every part of the value chain - growing the need for scale
Incumbents are rigged for local competition – lack of national brand and distribution channels
Higher churn erodes their local markets shares and forces them out of their protected home markets
Building up a strong defense and adding more sales and customer service resources is costly
| National players National (50- players 150k) (50-150k) |
Typically have strong regional positions and national national players presence – facing increased competition from larger national players |
Typically have strong regional positions and national presence – facing increased competition from larger Players Deliveries |
≈ 10 ≈ 850' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional Regional players players (10-50k) (10-50k) |
The smaller regional players typically have strong regional positions, that may be challenged by unbundling and increased regional consolidation |
The smaller regional players typically have strong regional presence, that may be challenged by unbundling and increased local consolidation Players Deliveries |
≈ 20 ≈ 400' |
| Local Local players players (<10k) (<10k) |
Smaller local players with very good local customer relationships, but typically with limited scale and mass business to operate a profitable stand alone retail business |
Smaller local players with very good local customer relationships, but typically with limited scale and mass to operate a profitable stand alone retail Players Deliveries |
≈ 100 ≈ 250' |
Sources: Company information
| Prospecting | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic considerations | ||||
| Company triggers | Competition | Brand | ||
| Transaction structure | ||||
| Portfolio acquisition | Company acquisition | |||
| Valuation methods | ||||
| DCF | Multiples | Benchmark | Churn out | |
| Cost synergies | ||||
| Due diligence | ||||
| Financial | Legal | Commercial | ||
| Transaction funding | ||||
| Operations | FK shares Debt |
|||
| SPA | ||||
| Synergy realization | ||||
| Evaluation |
| 1 | We expect that our M&A activities will fulfill a major part of our Roadmap to Growth |
|---|---|
| 2 | Regulations both in the electricity market and the mobile market are supporting Fjordkraft's growth strategy |
| 3 | The electricity market is highly fragmented and provides a substantial number of attractive prospects |
| 4 | Our M&A methodology secures both sustainable valuation and facilitates realization of synergies |
Ingeborg Morken (EVP Head of Operations)
Oslo, 14th February
The wholesale market consists of several markets where bids are submitted and where prices are determined:
In addition to the system price, Nord Pool sets area prices, which take into account congestion in the grid
Norway has five bidding zones/ price areas
Financial electricity trading can take place either bilaterally or on Nasdaq OMX Commodities AS (Nasdaq OMX) exchange
All contracts are settled financially without any physical electricity deliveries
At Nasdaq OMX, players can hedge prices for purchase and sale of 1 MW split by days, weeks, months, quarters and years
Financial products include
| Risk exposure | ||
|---|---|---|
| Consumer | Business | |
| the exposure to the uncertainty of actual volume Volume risk – |
Low | N/A |
| Electricity prices risk – the exposure to fluctuations in electricity area price |
Low | Low |
| Foreign exchange risk – the exposure to currency fluctuations |
N/A | N/A |
| Electricity Certificates risk – the exposure to fluctuations in electricity certificate price |
Limited | Low |
| Financial counterparty risk – the exposure to counterpart not being able to settle hedging contracts |
Low | Limited |
Fjordkrafts overall approach to market risk
Fjordkraft seeks to reduce market risk to a low level Exposure to price volatility support margin upside
Sources: Company information
Sources: Company information
| Cost per invoice |
# of invoices per month |
Cost per relocation |
# of relocations per year |
Cost per new sale |
# of new sales per year |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 2012 | NOK 9.4 |
~200k | NOK 218 | ~8k | NOK 137 | ~40k |
| In 2017 |
NOK 5.501 | ~420k | NOK 122 | ~75k | NOK 68 | ~200k |
| In 2018 | NOK 4.621 | ~500k | NOK 118 | ~80k | NOK 65 | ~190k |
| Cost saving | ~ NOK 29m per year | ~ | NOK 8m per year | ~ | NOK 14m per year |
Expecting further downward trend underpinning our competitive advantages
Sources: Company information
| 1 | Fjordkraft has a thorough governance to monitor risk |
|---|---|
| 2 | In the Power market - our size and partner model give us unique advantages |
| 3 | Overall Fjordkraft seeks to reduce market risk to a low level, but exposure to price volatility supports margin upside |
| 4 | A scalable and cost-effective Fjordkraft factory, expecting further downward cost trend underpinning our competitive advantages. |
Christian Kalvenes (EVP Head of Consumer)
Oslo, 14th February
Source: Company information, TNS Kantar, Norsk Kundebarometer
| Local | • Located all over Norway, but operates in small geographical areas |
|---|---|
| Regional | • Located all over Norway and operates in relatively large geographical areas |
| National | • Located and operates all over Norway. Our toughest competitors are found in this category |
| Niche | • Located and operates all over Norway. Challenges the current market situation with new concepts and technology |
Source: Company information
Spot 51 %
Variable 49 %
Electricity supply agreements with add-on services
Differentiated offering of electricity supply agreements matching the customers' various needs and preferences with respect to risk and flexibility
| Capital Markets Day | 2019
A
B
Source: Company information, SSB 1) Market churn figures from NVE
Targeting positive run rate EBIT in second half of 2020
Still too early to conclude, but preliminary analyses show more than 50% reduced electricity churn for customers with both electricity and mobile subscription from Fjordkraft
1) EPSI rating 2018
| 1 | The no 1 electricity retail brand in the consumer segment |
|---|---|
| 2 | Industry leading nationwide distribution platform and omnichannel strategy |
| 3 | Market leading value proposition addressing differentiated consumer needs |
| 4 | Large retention toolkit spearheaded by market leading mobile offering that's making massive impact on churn, customer satisfaction and loyalty |
Targeting mid-single digit net revenue growth and an EBIT margin slightly above 30%
Roger Finnanger (EVP Head of Business)
Oslo, 14th February
Source: Company information, TNS Kantar
National players
Source: Company information
| Electricity supplier selection criteria | Fjordkraft's offering to address criteria |
|
|---|---|---|
| • • • |
Competitive terms Predictable and correct invoicing Consumption reports |
• Flexible and tailored solutions for large customers • Products for all risk profiles for SMEs |
| • | Flexible solutions | • Value added services such as reporting systems and climate management tools ("Min Bedrift") |
| • | Experience and competence in energy trading |
• Energy labelling & energy mapping |
| • | Follow-up meetings and counselling | • Climate reporting tool |
Customers' willingness to pay increases through differentiated services, follow-up meetings and counselling
Source: Company information 1) Based on number of deliveries at the end of the year
Systematic training of sales resources to increase hit rate
Increase the market penetration of additional services to strengthen customer satisfaction and loyalty
Implementing switching barriers in all sales channels
Source: Company information, NVE 1) Market churn figures from NVE
| 1 | Operating in the attractive Norwegian electricity retailing market with an unparalleled demand profile and a level playing field favouring strong national brands such as Fjordkraft |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2 | A proven business model providing 'need to have' electricity combined with sought after value-added services - supporting differentiation and margin robustness |
|
| 3 | The leading and most recognized electricity retail brand in Norway | |
| 4 | Unmatched platform for distribution of best in class service offering to consumer and business customers across Norway |
|
| 5 | Strong competitive advantages and a robust platform for further organic and bolt-on acquisition driven growth |
|
| 6 | Attractive financial profile based on a robust business model with limited capital expenditure requirements resulting in solid add-on acquisition- and dividend capacity |
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