Investor Presentation • Feb 11, 2020
Investor Presentation
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Aker BP ASA
11 February 2020
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document. Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document. Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
Karl Johnny Hersvik CEO
High efficiency, profitable growth and value creation
Kjetel Digre SVP Operations & Asset Development
Maximizing value of our assets
Evy Glørstad SVP Exploration & Asset Initiation
Creating value through exploration
David Tønne CFO
Maximizing returns through the cycle
All speakers
Q&A session
| 10:00 | Break | 11:30 | 12:15 – 12:45 |
|---|---|---|---|
Capital Markets Update
11 February 2020
The need for energy to support rising prosperity
The need for CO2 emissions to fall dramatically
World population will continue to increase…
… and human prosperity is closely linked to energy consumption
Energy-related CO2 emissions must come down to reach the Paris goals
1) Source: UN's World Population Prospects 2019 2) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2019. The Sustainable Development Scenario, according to the IEA, identifies a pathway consistent with key energy-related sustainable development goals for emissions, access and air quality (e.g. the Paris Agreement)
Global petroleum liquids demand (mmboepd)
Oil and gas a large share of the energy mix
Average annual upstream oil and gas investment estimates (USD bill. 2018)
Produce efficiently to return high value from oil & gas resources to our stakeholders
Reduce emissions from our operations focusing on the total footprint
Contribute with data, know-how and technology to other industries
Creating the leading independent offshore E&P company
Total resources1 (billion boe)
Net production2 (mboepd)
205-220
1.84
Production cost4 (USD/boe)
<5
CO2 emissions3 (kg/boe)
Annual shareholder return since 20165
51%
~10
Dividend6 (USD mill.)
850
1) Sum of oil and gas 2P reserves and 2C resources per year-end 2019 2) Production target 2020 3) CO2 Kg/boe target 4) Cost target 2020 5) Bloomberg TSR from January 2016 6) Plan for dividend payment 2020
>205*
Photo: Aker BP office
in 2020 from three projects
First offshore single-trip multi-frac well stimulation
One team – common goals – shared incentives
Logos represents acquisitions, mergers and asset transactions by Aker BP in Norway in the respective year. (M&A: mergers & acquisitions) 21
Production ambition (mboepd)
500
Dividends, USD million
Capital Markets Update 2020
Kjetel Digre SVP Operations & Asset Development
Production cost (USD/boe)
Large resource base with highly attractive economics…
Break-even for non-sanctioned projects (USD/boe)1) 2C contingent resources
Production ambition non-sanctioned projects
… yields increased production
Mboepd
NOAKA 34% Valhall area 25% Ula area 18% Alvheim area 9% Skarv 9% Other 6% 931 mmboe ~75% liquids
300
MILLION BOE
ÆRFUGL BREAK-EVEN PRICE
\$15
Substantial improvements through alliances
Accelerated production
Start-up in first half of 2020
Reserves addition of 85% last three years (mmboe, net)
Tremendous improvment on Skarv adds volume and value
USD per barrel
Reduced export pressure and reduced energy use in the gas cleaning process 1 2
Rescheduling in collaboration with other operators in the area
37
Skarv production outlook1) (net mboepd)
Alvheim (PL203) - 65%, Volund (PL150) - 65%, Vilje (PL036 D) - 46.9%, Bøyla/Frosk (PL340) - 65%, Skogul (PL460) - 65% 39
80 MILLION BOE
VALHALL FLANK WEST BREAK-EVEN PRICE
A new standard for flank developments
Alliance strategy vital for project success
Excellent safety performance
Key technology to enable increased recovery
45
15
Resources: 2.2-3.2 bn boe
2P reserves: 2.7 bn boe
Recovery ambition above 70%
Plateau production phase 1 of 440 mboepd (Q2 20)
Plateau production phase 2 of 660 mboepd (Q2 22)
Break even oil price below USD 20 per barrel Currently ~350 mboepd 0.67 kg per barrel
Production cost below USD 2 per barrel
Photo: Equinor
SAFETY
LOW EMISSIONS
LOW COST HIGH PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
PROFITABLE GROWTH
Capital Markets Update 2020
Evy Glørstad SVP Exploration and Asset initiation
Maximize value of operated hubs
60 %
Explore for new hub potential
40 %
Smart integration of data and technology
Discovery estimated to 80-200 mmboe recoverable
Potential tie-in to NOAKA development solution
Appraisal well planned in 2020
Follow up on 2019 successes with appraisal and new targets
Apply new technology to create new opportunities
Utilize existing infrastructure and search for new core areas
Capital Markets Update 2020
David Tønne Chief Financial Officer
1) Assuming USDNOK of 8.5 in 2020 and onwards
2) Free cash flow: Net cash flow from operating activities after tax minus Net cash flow used in investment activities. Before dividends
67
Break-even for non-sanctioned projects (USD/boe)1)
Capitalized interest is excluded. Assuming USDNOK of 8.5 in 2020 and onwards 70
Carbon pricing consistent with meeting climate goals
Investments tested against cost of carbon emissions consistent with IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario
Requires a carbon price of USD 100/tonne CO2 in 2030
Production cost (USD/boe)
Abandonment spend (USD million)
Exploration spend (USD million)
• Fully deductible same year at 78% tax rate
Current producing fields and sanctioned and non-sanctioned projects
1) Free cash flow: Net cash flow from operating activities minus Net cash flow used in investment activities Assuming USDNOK of 8.5 in 2020 and onwards
Leverage ratio Net debt / 12m EBITDAX BBB- (stable) Ba1 (stable) BBB- (stable) 1.2 - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 Targeting leverage ratio below ~1.5x
High debt capacity – low utilization
Debt facilities USD million
Bond maturities USD million
Tax-adjusted net debt per 31.12.2019 USD billion
Leverage ratio - an approximation including all investments and dividends
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 \$ 50/bbl \$ 80/bbl \$ 65/bbl
3.0
Leverage ratio: Net debt/EBITDAX. Effect of oil put options are not included 2) All capex incl. sanctioned, non-sanctioned and NOAKA, Abex and Expex (no upsides from Exploration activity included). Static scenarios with no change in investment behavior or impact on supplier costs from changes in oil price 78
Tax payments - USD million
79
Dividends, USD million
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Dividend plan USD million
\$ 50/bbl
\$ 80/bbl
\$ 65/bbl
82
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