Investor Presentation • Feb 13, 2020
Investor Presentation
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| Start | Finish | Time (min) | Subject | Presenter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 08:15 | 15 | 1. Financial update Q4 2019 | Rolf Barmen/Ole Johan Langenes |
| 08:15 | 08:25 | 10 | Q&A | |
| 08:25 | 08:50 | 25 | 2. CEO state of the union | Rolf Barmen |
| 08:50 | 09:10 | 20 | 3. Regulations and M&A | Arnstein Flaskerud |
| 09:10 | 09:25 | 15 | Break | |
| 09:25 | 09:35 | 10 | 4. Innovation | Arnstein Flaskerud |
| 09:35 | 09:55 | 20 | 5. Consumer segment | Christian Kalvenes |
| 09:55 | 10:15 | 20 | 6. Business segment | Roger Finnanger |
| 10:15 | 10:25 | 10 | 7. New financial targets | Ole Johan Langenes |
| 10:25 | Rolf Barmen (CEO) 10:50 |
25 | Q&A |
Rolf Barmen (CEO) Ole Johan Langenes (Acting CFO)
Oslo, 13th February
Rolf Barmen (CEO)
Favourable market dynamics driving strong profitability growth
| 1 # of deliveries (end of period) |
Δ in # of deliveries (QoQ) | |
|---|---|---|
| 622 092 | 2 637 | |
| Increase of 3 % YoY |
Of which org. growth 2 637 |
|
| 2 Volume sold |
Gross revenue | |
| 4 002 GWh | NOK 2 047m |
|
| Increase of 1 % YoY |
Decrease of -6 % YoY |
|
| 3 Net revenue (adj.) 2 K6 |
3 EBIT (adj.) |
|
| NOK 372m |
NOK 148m |
|
| Increase of 22 % YoY 9 |
Increase of 38 % YoY K7 |
|
| Basic EPS (reported) | K13NIBD (cash) | |
| NOK 1.20 |
(NOK 581m) | |
| Increase of 76 % YoY |
K19NIBD/LTM EBITDA: -0.85 |
Sources: Company information
3) Adj. Net revenue and EBIT are reported figures adjusted for any estimate deviations on sales and distribution of electricity related to previous reporting periods, special items, unrealised gains and losses on financial derivatives and depreciations from acquisitions
Rolf Barmen (CEO)
1) Temperature figures from met.no's monthly reports
2) Weekly system prices in NOK from Nordpool, forward prices from Montel
# of electricity deliveries1 ('000)
1) Number of electricity deliveries at the end of the period
1) Number of electricity deliveries at the end of the period
• 4% YoY Alliance volume decrease YoY, as Vesterålskraft is now included in the Consumer and Business segments
Key highlights in Q4 2019 # of Mobile subscribers1 ('000)
Sources: Company information
1) Number of mobile subscribers at the end of the period
Ole Johan Langenes (Acting CFO)
Sources: Company information
1) New Growth Initiatives figures are excluded from the calculations, as high volumes with very low margins distorts the analysis
• EBIT improvement of 41 NOKm with the Consumer segment as the main driver
Sources: Company information
5 pp margin expansion driven by net revenue growth
Increase in adj. net revenue is driven by improved margins, primarily from value added services
Stable development in EBIT margin YoY
Adj. net revenue and adj. EBIT improvement driven by Alliance
Sources: Company information
Net working capital1 (NOKm)
Sources: Company information
Sources: Company information
1) OpFCF defined as EBITDA adj. less CAPEX excl. M&A and payments to obtain contract assets
2) Non-cash NWC relates to items included in "change in NWC" that are not affecting net cash position. Other includes interest, tax, change in long-term receivables, proceeds from non-current receivables, proceeds from other long-term liabilities, share based payment expense, change in post-employment liabilities, payment of lease liability and adjustments made on EBITDA.
Ole Johan Langenes (Acting CFO)
margins with minor positive impact from
• EBIT margin in line with target
M&A
• EBIT performance in line with targets
Sources: Company information
1) 2019 figures are not audited
2) All targets are on an organic basis
| Targets | Status | |
|---|---|---|
| Group | Ambition to act as a consolidator in a fragmented market |
One acquisition in 2019 |
| Cap.ex. | Targeted to be in the area of NOK 50m annually on an organic basis over the next three years |
In line with targets (50 NOKm) |
| Leverage | Moderate leverage with variations intra-year due to seasonality in net working capital Current balance sheet enabling substantial capacity to finance acquisitions |
Currently net cash position, supporting M&A ambitions |
| Dividend | Attractive and increasing dividend Target pay-out ratio of at least 80% (based on adjusted net income) |
Proposed dividend of 3.0 NOK per share2,3 |
1) Base line for the financial targets is adjusted 2018 financials
2) Subject to approval at the annual general meeting
3) How the dividend is calculated:
[(Adjusted EBIT + net finance)*(1-average tax rate) – amortisation of acquisition debt]*pay-out ratio
[(491 NOKm+8 NOKm)*(1-22%)-55.6 NOKm]*94.0%=313.5 NOKm, equivalent of a DPS of 3.0 NOK with the current number of shares outstanding
Rolf Barmen (CEO)
Oslo, 13th February
| Rolf Barmen |
|---|
| Chief Executive Officer |
Ole Johan Langenes Acting Chief Financial Officer
Arnstein Flaskerud EVP - Head of Strategy and M&A
Christian Kalvenes EVP - Head of Consumer
Roger Finnanger EVP - Head of Business
Alf Kåre Hjartnes EVP - Head of Technology and Digitalisation
Solfrid Aase EVP - Head of Alliance
Solfrid Andersen EVP - Head of Operations
Source: Company information
1) Number of deliveries in the Consumer and Business segment. In addition: ~30k deliveries in Extended Alliance Number of deliveries and subscribers at the end of 2019
Source: Company information
1) NGAAP until 2015, IFRS for 2016 and 2017. 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 excluding estimate deviations, other gains & losses, special items and depreciation of acquisitions
We observe that We believe that
XXk = Number of electricity deliveries
Fjordkraft is positioned to take lead in the consolidation
Scale including 'Fjordkraft Factory' supporting ability to
Alliance offering building relations to regional / local utilities
Profile adding to attractiveness as partner to utilities
Management and organisation with ambition to consolidate
Listed shares as an attractive acquisition currency
Sources: Company information
• National players get a natural diversification to local price risk
Fjordkraft has a low risk tolerance with clear mandates and strict governance Exposure to volatility in various markets supports margin upside
Source:
Source:
Number of mobile subscribers ('000)1
Source: Company information
1) Number of mobile subscribers at the end of the period. Targeting 125 thousand subscribers at the end of 2020.
| Capital Markets Day | 2020
| 1 | Operating in the attractive Norwegian electricity retailing market with an unparalleled demand profile and a level playing field favouring strong national brands such as Fjordkraft |
|---|---|
| 2 | A proven business model providing 'need to have' electricity combined with sought after value-added services - supporting differentiation and margin robustness |
| 3 | The leading and most recognized electricity retail brand in Norway |
| 4 | Unmatched platform for distribution of best in class service offering to consumer and business customers across Norway |
| 5 | Strong competitive advantages and a robust platform for further organic and bolt-on acquisition driven growth |
| 6 | Attractive financial profile based on a robust business model with limited capital expenditure requirements resulting in solid bolt-on acquisition and dividend capacity |
Arnstein Flaskerud (EVP Head of Strategy, M&A, Innovation and Regulations)
Oslo, 13th February
The EU Third Energy Package with change of authority and a new independent appeal body
Digitalisation of the industry. Smart meters and Elhub streamlining processes between all the players
Unbundling of vertically integrated companies, and separation of the end user business and monopoly activities
Significant positive effects for independent retail companies with existing strong national brands such as Fjordkraft
Change from voluntary to mandatory one invoice imposes all electricity suppliers to invoice grid fee
New Grid fee models based on Power Tariffs Max load and Time of use
Economies of scale in billing
Sources: Company information
Margin squeeze tests bi-annually to evaluate Telenor's pricing scheme
This has led to several price reductions to our wholesale procurement
2017 - 2019 2020 - 2022
Telenor are mandated to provide both linear price models and bulk price model
More balanced regulations
Sources: Company information
| National players National (50- players 150k) (50 >) |
Typically have strong regional positions and national presence – facing increased competition from larger national players |
Typically have strong regional positions and national presence – increased competition from larger national players Players Deliveries |
facing ≈ 10 ≈ 1000' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional Regional players players (10-50k) (10 - 50k) |
The smaller regional players typically have strong regional positions, that may be challenged by unbundling and increased regional consolidation |
The smaller regional players typically have strong regional presence, that may be challenged by unbundling and increased local consolidation Players Deliveries |
≈ 15 ≈ 350' |
| Local Local players players (<10k) (< 10k) |
Smaller local players with very good local customer relationships, but typically with limited scale and mass business to operate a profitable stand alone retail business |
Smaller local players with very good local customer relationships, but typically with limited scale and mass to operate a profitable stand alone retail Players Deliveries |
≈ 100 ≈ 250' |
Sources: Company information
| Driver | Description | |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory changes | Significant loss of competitive advantage for (regional/local) players | |
| Merging of grid companies | Consolidation in other parts of the value chain is supporting a more horizontal structure and can trigger divestment of retail portfolios |
|
| Merging of municipalities | Significant owners of our prospects and substantial value comes into play |
|
| Intense competition | Incumbents are rigged for local competition – lack of national brand and distribution channels will lower market share and profitability |
|
| Technology development | Increasing technological debt due to digitalisation of both internal and external processes + customer expectations and VAS competition |
|
| Complexity and scale | Building up a strong defense and adding more sales and customer service resources is costly |
M&A roadmap 2020-2022 Targeting a total of 265K new deliveries from M&A
| 1 | We expect that M&A activities will fulfill a major part of our Roadmap to Growth |
|---|---|
| 2 | Regulations both in the electricity market and the mobile market are supporting Fjordkraft's growth strategy |
| 3 | The electricity market is highly fragmented and provides a substantial number of attractive M&A prospects |
| 4 | Fjordkraft has the ambitions and experience to consolidate, and offers a wide range of attractive M&A alternatives |
Arnstein Flaskerud (EVP Head of Strategy, M&A, Innovation and Regulations)
Oslo, 13th February
| Existing services | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Loyalty and new purchases |
| related to core business | |
| 2 | New customers, organic, |
| M&A, expanded alliance | |
| 3 | New products and services |
| from other industries | |
| 4 | New markets, |
| Internationalization |
More money from each customer
Sources: TNS Kantar Growth model
Collects value from products and services
Collects value from the platform users
| First mover | Fast second | |
|---|---|---|
| Must be able to handle high uncertainty related to: • Technology development • Customers adoption This role demands willingness to take uncertain bets and a culture based on high flexibility |
Must win the battle of dominant market design Must be able to scale fast • Brand • Sales • Distribution • Operations |
|
| When it comes to technology-driven innovation, Fjordkraft | will primarily use a Fast Second |
Strategy, which requires careful timing and the ability to act and scale fast
Sources: Fast Second – C. C. Markides and P. A. Geroski
| Consumer | Business | New Growth Initiatives | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Digital customer front end - overview and control |
Full-Service Solar (PPA) |
Joint venture software company (Metzum AS) offering standard software components from the Fjordkraft Factory to grid companies and suppliers |
|
| Marketplace offering goods from quality 3rd party |
Full-Service Heat Pumps (PPA) |
Fjordkraft Spin Off. Offering rating and billing services to grid companies and to Fjordkraft's Extended Alliance segment |
|
| vendors | EV Charging |
Web based solution supporting implementation of climate accounting, climate initiatives and climate neutrality |
| 1 | Our focus is to stay closest to the customer and develop our core business, in parallel with looking at new growth areas |
|---|---|
| 2 | Our competitive advantage will normally be that we have the most cost-efficient muscles for new growth areas |
| 3 | When it comes to technology-driven innovation, we will primarily use a Fast Second Strategy |
| 4 | Now it's time to generate spin-offs and to develop platform business models in parallel with our linear business model |
Christian Kalvenes (EVP Head of Consumer)
Oslo, 13th February
Source: Company information, TNS Kantar, Norsk Kundebarometer
| Spot products | Variable products | Value added services |
|---|---|---|
| Product characteristics: • The customer's price follows the spot price |
Product characteristics: • Discretionary pricing with a notification period of up to 14 days |
Product characteristics: • Differentiating and supplementary products to our core products |
| • The customer is fully exposed to the spot price volatility |
• More steady and predictable prices for the customer |
• Includes i.a. insurance products and flexible payment solutions |
| • Fixed nominal markup with no price or volume risk for Fjordkraft |
• Short term price risk within the notification period for Fjordkraft |
Sources: Company information
Fjordkraft is perfectly positioned:
Targeting mid-single digit net revenue growth on an organic basis.
Targeted to gradually go down towards a sustainable level of slightly above 30% on an organic basis, driven by increased competition.
Maintaining current net revenue growth target for 2020- 2022:
Targeting mid-single digit net revenue growth on an organic basis.
Revised target for 2020-2022: Targeting a sustainable level of 32-34% on an organic basis.
| Organic growth | Net rev. per del. | Competition | Digitalisation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic growth ambitions of 2-3 % annually |
• Core product margin expected to be stable • Value Added Services enable Net Revenue expansion per delivery |
Competition expected to increase over the coming years |
Maintaining focus and investments in a digitalised customer experience will be important going forward |
62 Source: Company information, TNS Kantar, Norsk Kundebarometer 1) Based on market share and customer awareness data from Kantar TNS Energibarometer Q4 2019
Current target for 2020: Targeting 125k subscribers at the end of 2020
Current target for 2020: Targeting positive EBIT at the end of 2020
Maintaining target for 2020 – continued focus on growth:
Maintaining target for 2020 – new target for 2022:
Roger Finnanger (EVP Head of Business)
Oslo, 13th February
Source: Company information, Kantar TNS, Energibarometeret
Size:From 0 – 10 GWh
Balanced distribution with two internal and two external teams within telemarketing
National presence with four teams covering mid-sized customers
| Spot products | Variable products | Spot w/ risk management | Value added services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product characteristics: • The customer's price follows the spot price |
Product characteristics: • Discretionary pricing with a notification period of up to 14 days |
Product characteristics: • Spot with risk management such as index hedging, fixed |
Product characteristics: • Differentiating and supplementary products to our core products, |
| • The customer is fully exposed to the spot price volatility |
• More steady and predictable prices for the |
price, options etc. • Hedging is mainly done |
enabling increased insight and control |
| • Fixed nominal markup with |
customer | back-to-back, reducing Fjordkraft's risk exposure |
• Includes i.a. a web-based reporting tool with energy |
| no price or volume risk for Fjordkraft |
• Short term price risk within the notification period for Fjordkraft |
• Attractive for businesses seeking to manage budgets through predictable electricity |
monitoring and management functionality and various green additional products |
Product mix
costs
Spot w/ risk management Spot Variable
Energy mapping – a complete inspection of energy usage in the building
Customers receive a report on energy consumption and suggested measures to reduce consumption
Energy Rating – an overall energy efficiency assessment of a building
Targeting around double digit net revenue growth on an organic basis
Maintaining current net revenue growth target for 2020: Targeting double digit net revenue growth in 2020, then a decrease to a sustainable level of mid-single digit growth
Targeted to increase to above 55% on an organic basis, driven by scale effects
Revised target for 2020-2022: Targeting a sustainable level of 52-54% on an organic basis
Organic growth ambitions of ~5% annually
Competition expected to increase over the coming years
Investments in new and attractive products and value added services will be important to win the battle for customers
| 1 | Strong distribution power provides rapid market penetration on new products and services |
|---|---|
| 2 | A high brand awareness and large customer portfolio makes Fjordkraft an attractive partner for new sustainable solutions |
| 3 | New value added services strengthens Fjordkraft's position and climate commitment |
| 4 | Long term contracts reducing churn and defending revenue |
Ole Johan Langenes (Acting CFO)
Oslo, 13th February
| Group | Targeting high-single digit net revenue growth on an organic basis Targeting an EBIT margin of 36-38% Ambition to act as a consolidator in a fragmented market |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | Growth Targeting mid-single digit net revenue growth on an organic basis |
||
| EBIT Targeting a sustainable level of 32-34% on an organic basis margin |
|||
| Business | Targeting double digit net revenue growth in 2020, followed by a sustainable mid-single digit annual growth in 2021 and 2022 Growth |
||
| EBIT Targeting a sustainable level of 52-54% on an organic basis margin |
|||
| New growth |
Targeting a stable nominal EBIT from 2019 to 2020. Positive development in both Alliance and Mobile, while new spin offs negatively affect the segment EBIT in 2020 with in the area of -10 NOKm. |
||
| initiatives | NGI targeted to comprise up towards 5% of group EBIT in 2022 |
||
| Cap.ex. | Targeted to be in the area of NOK 50m annually on an organic basis |
||
| Tax rate | Prevailing corporate tax rate for Norway – 22% for 2020 |
||
| Leverage | Moderate leverage with variations intra-year due to seasonality in net working capital Current balance sheet enabling substantial capacity to finance acquisitions |
||
| Dividend | Target pay-out ratio of at least 80% of net income, adjusted for certain cash and non-cash items2 Attractive and increasing dividend |
1) All targets are based on adjusted figures, further described under alternative performance measures in the quarterly report 2)Adjusted EBIT + net finance – estimated tax – amortisation of acquisition debt
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