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Gjensidige Forsikring ASA

Investor Presentation Jul 14, 2020

3606_rns_2020-07-14_1e88c8ee-4c54-4879-890a-13acaeb4f82a.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Gjensidige Forsikring Group

2nd quarter 2020 results 14 July 2020

Best ever second quarter result

  • Pre-tax profit NOK 2,477m
  • Underwriting result NOK 1,344m
  • 11.2% premium growth
  • Strong underlying frequency loss ratio
  • Slighty positive effect of Covid-19
  • Large losses broadly in line with expectation, run-off gains slightly higher than planned
  • Good cost control
  • Financial result NOK 1,159m, return 1.9%
  • Return on equity 11.1%1)

APMs are described at www.gjensidige.no/reporting in a document named APMs Gjensidige Forsikring Group Q2 2020. 1) Annualised, YTD

Solid operations

  • Strong employee efforts to ensure excellent customer service and critical functions
  • More flexible customer solutions and handling as response to Covid-19
  • Effective pricing measures in Norway
  • Maintaining superior market position
  • Good progress outside Norway
  • Implementation of new core-IT system on track

Strong customer retention in Norway

Strong customer and sustainability rankings and employee feedback

Strong customer recognition

High employee satisfaction and engagement

Moving forward to deliver on our sustainability goals

  • BREEAM certification recognised as criteria for higher claims settlement in Commercial segment
  • Partnered with ZERO Conference
  • Accelerating ambition to reach climate neutrality in 2020
  • Decided to become a signatory to UN PRI and UNEFI
  • GJF included in FTSE4Good index

Three key focus areas

Financial performance

Significant rise in financial result and record high underlying underwriting result

NOK m Q2 2020 Q2 2019 YTD 2020 YTD 2019
Private 747 584 1 267 979
Commercial 523 493 1 016 826
Denmark 237 221 413 324
Sweden (15) 14 5 35
Baltics 48 14 53 20
Corporate Centre/costs related to owner (76) (72) (181) (152)
Corporate Centre/reinsurance (119) 4 (172) 23
Underwriting result 1 344 1 258 2 401 2 056
Pension 34 39 69 93
Financial result from the investment portfolio 1 159 513 (361) 1 195
Amortisation and impairment losses of excess value (44) (63) (96) (125)
Other items (16) (24) (34) 1 535
Profit/(loss) before tax expenses 2 477 1 723 1 980 4 754

11.2 per cent premium growth

Premium development

Key drivers – premium development

  • Private +4.9%
  • Price driven
  • Commercial +11.1%
  • Price and volume driven
  • Denmark +23.0%
  • Positive 8.3% in local currency, price and volume driven
  • Sweden +15.7%
  • Positive 2.4% in local currency, price driven
  • Baltics +7.5%
  • Negative 5.3% in local currency, price and volume driven

Strong underlying loss ratio

Loss ratio development

Key drivers

  • Improved underlying frequency loss ratio
  • Effective pricing measures
  • Positive impact from lower activity because of the pandemic
  • Higher large losses and lower run-off gains

Continued good cost control – cost ratio 14.5 per cent

Cost development

NOK m

Key drivers – cost development

  • Strong cost discipline across the Group
  • Cost ratio 13.9 per cent excluding Baltics

Lower profit for Pension operation

Profit and return Assets under management

Investment return of 1.9 per cent, reflecting market recovery

Investment return per asset class Portfolio mix as at 30.6.2020

Very solid solvency position, well above target range

Solvency margin misc. assumptions

  • Solid capitalisation and capital buffers well within risk appetite
  • FSA approved partial internal model 283%
  • Own partial internal model 350%1)

Strong capital generation

  • Capital generation driven by a strong underwriting result and financial returns
  • Generated NOK 2.5 billion in eligible own funds, creating increased dividend capacity
  • Board intends to distribute dividends to shareholders as soon as the situation allows

1) Operating SII earnings comprise SII underwriting result and SII financial result of the match portfolio after tax Gjensidige Forsikring Group 14

Moving ahead on operational targets

Metric Status Q2 2020 Target 2022
Customer satisfaction
(CSI)
78 > 78, Group
Customer retention 91% > 90%, Norway
79% > 85%, outside Norway
Sales effectiveness +6.6% + 10%, Group
Automated tariffs 48% 100%, Group
Digital claims reporting 80% 80%, Norway
Claims straight-through
processing
16% 64%, Norway
Claims cost NOK 322 million Reduce by NOK 500
million, Group
Claims related
CO
-intensity
2
1.7 1) Reduce year by year,
Group
  • Focus on digital customer interactions
  • Simplification is key to enhanced efficiency
  • Process optimisation and automation necessary to secure sufficient agility

1) CO Gjensidige Forsikring Group 2 -emissions in tonnes from claims handling processes, divided by earned premiums in NOK million from general insurance. Only reported annually. 15

Concluding remarks

  • Strong and best ever second quarter result
  • Higher activity and domestic vacations expected to change claims pattern in Q3 vs Q2
  • High asset quality and balanced risk appetite in investment portfolio
  • Very strong capital position maintain intention to distribute dividends as soon as situation allows

Annual financial targets through 2022

Metric Target
Combined ratio 86-89%1)
Cost ratio <15%
Solvency margin (PIM) 150-200%
ROE after tax 2)
>20%
UW result outside Norway NOK 750m
3)
(in 2022)
Dividends Nominal high and stable
(and >80% over time)

Appendix

Roadshows and conferences post Q2 2020 results

Date Location Participants Event Arranged by
17 August Oslo CFO Jostein Amdal
IRO Kjetil Gill Østvold
Roadshow Arctic
19 August London
(tel. meetings)
CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow Morgan Stanley
20 August Bergen/Stavanger
(tel. meetings)
CEO Helge Leiro Baastad
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow Pareto
26 August Helsinki
(tel. meetings)
EVP Communication and Shared Services Janne Flessum
IRO Kjetil Gill Østvold
Roadshow Danske
10 September München
(tel. meetings)
EVP Communication and Shared Services Janne Flessum
IRO Kjetil Gill Østvold
Roadshow Nordea
14 September London
(tel. meetings)
CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Conference Barclays
22 September London
(tel. meetings)
CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Conference BofA

General insurance – cost ratio and loss ratio per segment

Private Commercial

Gjensidige Forsikring Group 19

Denmark

General insurance – cost ratio and loss ratio per segment

Sweden Baltics

Effect of discounting of claims provisions

Effect of discounting on CR – Q2 2020 Assumptions

  • Only claims provisions are discounted (i.e. premium provisions are undiscounted)
  • Swap rates in Norway, Sweden and Denmark
  • Euroswap rates in the Baltic countries

Appendix

Large losses 5.1 percentage points – higher than expected

Large losses – reported vs. expected Large losses per segment

Gjensidige Forsikring Group CC = corporate centre. Large losses: Losses > NOK 10m. Weather related large losses are included. Large losses in excess of NOK 30m are charged to the Corporate Centre while up to NOK 30m per claim is charged to the segment in which the large loss occurred. The Baltics segment has, as a main rule, a retention level of EUR 0.5m. The Sweden segment has a retention level of NOK 10m. 22

Large losses development

~ NOK 1.25bn in large losses expected annually Large losses per segment – actual vs. expected

Run-off gains 4.3 percentage points – higher than expected

Expected Reported

Run-off development

Expected average annual run-off gains of ~4 pp (~NOK 1bn) through 2022

Gjensidige Forsikring Group 25

Quarterly underwriting results Seasonality in Nordic general insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring Group

26

1) Reported UW result for Q1 2016 was NOK 1,251m. Adjusted for a non-recurring income of NOK 477m related to the pension plans, the UW result was NOK 774m.

2) Reported UW result for Q3 2016 was NOK 712m. Adjusted for a non-recurring NOK 120m restructuring cost the UW result was NOK 832m.

3) Reported UW result for Q4 2016 was NOK 700m. Adjusted for a non-recurring NOK 44m increase in provision for restructuring cost and NOK 23m provision for increased pay-roll tac the UW result was NOK 767m

4) Reported UW result for Q3 2018 was NOK 573m. Adjusted for a non-recurring NOK 80m restructuring cost the UW result was NOK 653m.

5) Reported UW result for Q4 2018 was NOK 1,914m. Adjusted for the extra run-off gains of NOK 1.1bn the UW result was NOK 834m .

Appendix

Investment strategy supporting high and stable nominal dividends

Match portfolio

  • Duration and currency matching versus technical provisions (undiscounted)
  • Credit element for increased returns
  • Some inflation hedging

Match portfolio

  • Compounding and focused on absolute returns
  • Dynamic risk management
  • Tactical allocation
  • Active management fixed income and equities
  • Normal risk premiums basis for asset allocation and use of capital

Key characteristics

  • Limited risk appetite
  • Currency hedging vs NOK ~ 100%
  • Limit +/- 10% per currency
  • Marked-to-market recognition
  • Except bonds at amortised cost
  • Stable performance

Investment portfolio

Asset class Investments, key elements1) Benchmark
Match
portfolio
Money market Norwegian money market ST1X index
Bonds at amortised cost Government
and corporate bonds
Yield provided in quarterly reports
Current bonds Mortgage, sovereign and corporate bonds, investment grade bond funds and loan funds
containing secured debt
IBOX COR
1-3 years
QW5C index
Free portfolio
Money market Norwegian
money market
ST1X index
Other bonds IG
bonds in internationally diversified funds externally managed and current bonds
Global Agg
Corp
LGCPTRUH index
High Yield bonds Internationally diversified funds externally managed BOAML global HY
HWIC index
Convertible bonds Internationally diversified funds externally managed BOAML global 300 conv
VG00 index
/ Exogen
factors
Current equities Mainly
internationally and domestic diversified funds externally managed
MSCIAC
NDUEACWF
index
PE funds Oil/ oil-service/ general (Norwegian and Nordic funds) OSEBX index
/ oil price
Property 50% of Oslo Areal IPD index Norway / Exogen
factors
Other Miscellaneous

1) See quarterly report for a more detailed description Gjensidige Forsikring Group

Asset allocation – as at 30.6.2020

Match portfolio

  • Carrying amount: NOK 36.6bn
  • Average duration: 3.4 years

Money market Bonds at amortised cost Current bonds

Free portfolio

  • Carrying amount: NOK 26.4bn
  • Average duration fixed-income instruments: 3.9 years

  • Money market

  • Other bonds
  • High Yield
  • Convertible bonds
  • Current equities
  • PE-funds
  • Property
  • Other

Contribution from the portfolios

Asset allocation as at 30.6.2020 Quarterly investment returns

Balanced geographical exposure

Match portfolio Free portfolio, fixed-income instruments

Figures as at 30.6.2020. Geographical distribution relates to issuers and does not reflect actual currency exposure. Gjensidige Forsikring Group 31

Credit and counterparty risk

  • The portfolio consists mainly of securities in rated companies with high creditworthiness (Investment grade)
  • Issuers with no official rating are mainly Norwegian savings banks, municipalities, credit institutions and power producers and distributors 1)

Credit exposure Total fixed income portfolio

Split - Rating Match portfolio Free portfolio
NOK bn % NOK bn %
AAA 14.2 38.8 2.8 16.6
AA 3.1 8.6 3.7 21.5
A 6.2 17.0 3.9 22.9
BBB 4.2 11.4 1.8 10.4
BB 0.2 0.5 0.5 2.7
B 0.7 1.8 0.2 1.1
CCC or lower 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
Internal rating1) 5.2 14.3 3.0 17.6
Unrated 2.7 7.3 1.2 7.0
Fixed income portfolio 36.6 100.0 17.1 100.0
Split - Counterparty Match portfolio Free portfolio
NOK bn % NOK bn %
Public sector 4.9 13.5 6.9 40.5
Bank/financial institutions 19.7 53.8 6.4 37.4
Corporates 11.9 32.7 3.8 22.1
Total 36.6 100.0 17.1 100.0

Capital position per operational areas

(NOK bn) Approved partial
internal model
(Group)
Approved partial
internal model
(general
insurance)
Own partial internal
model (Group)1)
Own partial internal
model (general
1)
insurance)
Gjensidige Pensjons
forsikring
Capital available 28.1 25.9 28.2 26.0 2.5
Capital requirement 9.9 8.8 8.1 6.9 1.7
Solvency
margin
283% 294% 350% 378% 148%

Capital Generation year to date

Solvency II eligible own funds

Bridging the gap between IFRS equity and Solvency II capital

NOK bn

Gjensidige Forsikring Group Figures as at 30.6.2020. GPF = Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring. Deferred tax: All differences in valuation of assets and liabilities are adjusted for tax. Tax is assumed on the security provision. Miscellanious: Main effects are related to the guarantee scheme provision and different valuation of Oslo Areal. 35

Solvency II capital requirements

NOK
bn
Approved partial
internal model
(Group)
Own partial
internal model
(Group)1)
Eligible own funds 28.1 28.2
Capital charge for non-life and health uw
risk
7.8 6.4
Capital charge for life uw
risk
1.9 1.9
Capital charge for market risk 6.6 5.7
Capital charge for counterparty
risk
0.4 0.4
Diversification (4.7) (4.8)
Basic SCR 12.0 9.6
Operational
risk
0.9 0.9
Adjustments (loss-absorbing capacity of
deferred tax)
(3.0) (2.4)
Total solvency capital requirement 9.9 8.1
Surplus 18.2 20.2
Solvency ratio 283% 350%

Scope regulatory approved PIM

Solvency II sensitivities for the approved partial internal model

Figures as at 30.6.2020. The legal perspective is the regulatory approved version of the partial internal model. Solvency margins reflect best estimate reserves. UFR-sensitivity is very limited. Gjensidige Forsikring Group

Subordinated debt capacity

Intermediate Equity Content Constraint
S&P 25% of
TAC
For the general
insurance group, both
Solvency II Tier 1 and
Tier 2 instruments are
classified as Intermediate
Equity Content. Capital
must be regulatory
eligible in order to be
included.
T1
T2
Constraint
SII Max 20% of
Tier 1 capital
Max 50% of
SCR less other
T2 capital
items
Must be satisfied at
group and solo level

Principles for capacity Capacity and utilisation

  • Tier 1 remaining capacity is NOK 3.8-4.7bn
  • Utilised Tier 1 debt capacity: NOK 1.0bn
  • Tier 2 capacity is fully utilised for the insurance group
  • Utilised sub debt: NOK 1.5bn1)
  • Utilised natural perils fund and guarantee scheme: NOK 3.4bn

Reduced Solvency II regulatory uncertainty

Element Solvency surplus
effect (NOK bn)
Comment
Guarantee scheme provision ~ (0.1)

0.5
Increase in provision suggested, no news regarding treatment in Solvency II

Annualised return on equity 11.1 per cent

Equity (NOK m) Annualised return on equity (%)

Market leader in Norway

Market share – Commercial Market share – Private

Growth opportunities outside Norway

Gjensidige Forsikring Group Sources: Insurance Sweden, 1st quarter 2020 (Gjensidige including Vardia), The Danish Insurance Association 2nd quarter 2019. Baltics Insurance Supervisory Authorities of Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia Statistics, competitor reports, and manual calculations, 1st quarter 2020 42

Ownership

No Shareholder Stake (%)
1 Gjensidigestiftelsen 62.24
2 Folketrygdfondet 4.58
3 Deutsche Bank 3.16
4 BlackRock Inc 2.77
5 Societe Generale 1.60
6 Nordea 1.28
7 State Street Corporation 1.21
8 The Vanguard Group, Inc 1.05
9 ORIX Corporation 1.04
10 Danske Bank 0.97
Total 10 largest 79.89

10 largest shareholders 1) Geographical distribution of shares 2)

Gjensidige Foundation ownership policy:

  • Long term target holding: >60%
  • Can accept reduced ownership ratio in case of acquisitions and capital issues when in accordance with Gjensidige's overall strategy

Disclaimer

This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (the "Company"). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligations to update or correct any of the information set out herein.

These materials may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and is not prepared or made in connection with, an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, it does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, its affiliates or any of their respective advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "US Securities Act"), and are offered and sold only outside the United States in accordance with an exemption from registration provided by Regulation S of the US Securities Act.

This presentation should not form the basis of any investment decision. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offering documents published in relation to such an offering. For further information about the Company, reference is made public disclosures made by the Company, such as filings made with the Oslo Stock Exchange, periodic reports and other materials available on the Company's web pages.

Gjensidige Forsikring provides alternative performance measures (APMs) in the financial reports, in addition to the financial figures prepared in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The measures are not defined in IFRS (International Financial Report Standards) and are not necessarily directly comparable to other companies' performance measures. The APMs are not intended to be a substitute for, or superior to, any IFRS measures of performance, but have been included to provide insight into Gjensidige's performance and represent important measures for how management governs the Group and its business activities. Key figures that are regulated by IFRS or other legislation, as well as non-financial information, are not regarded as APMs. Gjensidige's APMs are presented in the quarterly report and presentation. All APMs are presented with comparable figures for earlier periods. The APMs have generally been used consistently over time. Definitions and calclualtions can be found at www.gjensidige.no/reporting.

Notes

Notes

Investor Relations

Mitra Hagen Negård

Head of Investor Relations [email protected] Mobile: +47 95 79 36 31

Kjetil Gill Østvold

Investor relations officer [email protected] Mobile: +47 46 86 30 04

Address: Schweigaards gate 21, PO Box 700 Sentrum, 0106 Oslo, Norway www.gjensidige.no/ir

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