Investor Presentation • Oct 30, 2020
Investor Presentation
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This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Protector Forsikring ASA (the "Company"). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligationsto update or correct any of the information set out herein.
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Oslo, October 30th 2020 Investor presentation
Sverre Bjerkeli Chief Executive Officer
Vision
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative
Bold
Committed
Price increases Nordics ≈ 14%
Investment return of MNOK 334, or 2.6%
| in MNOK | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business unit | Q3 '20 | Q3 '19 | YTD '20 | YTD '19 |
| Norway | 162 | 307 | 1 249 | 1 444 |
| Sweden | 207 | 170 | 1 358 | 1 358 |
| Denmark | 58 | 67 | 913 | 868 |
| UK | 238 | 178 | 1 051 | 664 |
| Finland | 7 | 11 | 217 | 216 |
| Protector | 671 | 732 | 4 787 | 4 552 |
6
| PROTECTOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| insurance |
| Q3 '20 | Q3 '20 | Q3 '19 | Q3 '19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business unit | Gross | Net | Gross | Net |
| Norway | 75 % | 72 % | 97 % | 96 % |
| Sweden | 78 % | 80 % | 89 % | 85 % |
| Denmark | 116 % | 117 % | 83 % | 86 % |
| UK | 65 % | 74 % | 65 % | 35 % |
| Finland | 66 % | 68 % | 111 % | 112 % |
| Protector | 80,6 % | 83,0 % | 88,2 % | 84,1 % |
| YTD '20 | YTD '20 | YTD '19 | YTD '19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business unit | Gross | Net | Gross | Net |
| Norway | 83 % | 83 % | 90 % | 94 % |
| Sweden | 83 % | 83 % | 94 % | 87 % |
| Denmark | 106 % | 109 % | 97 % | 100 % |
| UK | 62 % | 71 % | 71 % | 89 % |
| Finland | 62 % | 64 % | 114 % | 115 % |
| Protector | 82,2 % | 84,8 % | 91,3 % | 93,5 % |
| Quarter 3 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNOK | Norway | Sweden | Denmark | UK | Finland | Protector | ||||||
| Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | |
| Gross premium written | 162 | 307 | 207 | 170 | 58 | 67 | 238 | 178 | 7 | 11 | 671 | 732 |
| Gross premium earned | 345 | 412 | 400 | 381 | 246 | 239 | 298 | 189 | 51 | 70 | 1 340 | 1 291 |
| Net premium earned | 314 | 360 | 349 | 348 | 216 | 206 | 224 | 135 | 45 | 63 | 1 147 | 1 112 |
| Gross combined ratio | 84,8 % | 101,5 % | 89,1 % | 99,2 % | 120,8 % | 87,7 % | 77,5 % | 76,3 % | 71,1 % | 114,9 % | 90,5 % | 95,3 % |
| Net claims ratio | 71,8 % | 96,2 % | 80,2 % | 84,6 % | 116,6 % | 85,7 % | 73,9 % | 35,1 % | 67,8 % | 111,8 % | 83,0 % | 84,1 % |
| Net cost ratio | 8,0 % | 5,5 % | 11,8 % | 11,2 % | 8,5 % | 4,1 % | 14,7 % | 9,0 % | 3,5 % | 6,7 % | 10,4 % | 7,5 % |
| Net combined ratio | 79,7 % | 101,7 % | 91,9 % | 95,8 % | 125,1 % | 89,8 % | 88,6 % | 44,0 % | 71,3 % | 118,4 % | 93,4 % | 91,6 % |
• Large losses higher than normal in Q3, and slightly higher than normal YTD (9.8% vs. 8%)
• Some reserve losses in Q3 (3.5%) and YTD (1.6%)
Year to date MNOK Norway Sweden Denmark UK Finland Protector YTD 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 YTD 2019 Gross premium written 1 249 1 444 1 358 1 358 913 868 1 051 664 217 216 4 787 4 552 Gross premium earned 1 085 1 193 1 194 1 101 731 674 805 521 160 190 3 975 3 680 Net premium earned 973 1 022 1 045 917 640 572 625 334 143 169 3 425 3 015 Gross combined ratio 91,7 % 94,8 % 94,6 % 105,5 % 112,4 % 103,0 % 75,0 % 83,0 % 67,3 % 119,5 % 92,0 % 99,1 % Net claims ratio 82,8 % 93,6 % 82,9 % 87,3 % 109,0 % 99,6 % 71,3 % 89,3 % 63,9 % 115,1 % 84,8 % 93,5 % Net cost ratio 6,6 % 4,8 % 12,0 % 10,6 % 8,5 % 5,0 % 13,6 % 12,0 % 2,2 % 7,2 % 9,7 % 7,5 % Net combined ratio 89,4 % 98,3 % 94,9 % 97,9 % 117,5 % 104,6 % 84,9 % 101,3 % 66,1 % 122,3 % 94,5 % 101,1 %
Volume development and combined ratio
No reason why growth should not continue
Nordic price increases at 14% YTD
Biggest country in Protector
Hans Didring Country Manager Sweden
| in MNOK | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWP | 69 | 147 | 325 | 521 | 815 | 1078 | 1350 | 1550 | 1358 |
| % of PRF portfolio | 6 % | 10 % | 17 % | 22 % | 28 % | 30 % | 32 % | 30 % | 28 % |
| % Motor | 45 % | 52 % | 54 % | 52 % | 52 % | 50 % | 45 % | 49 % | 50 % |
| Gross Cost | 19 % | 19 % | 16 % | 13 % | 16 % | 13 % | 11 % | 11 % | 12 % |
| Net CR | 154 % | 121 % | 98 % | 87 % | 88 % | 87 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % |
| Accumulated profits | -20 | -35 | -21 | 43 | 133 | 255 | 309 | 414 | 500 |
6 years to reach 1 bNOK Norway 10 years
Profit the fourth year.
st billion in GWP reached
Henrik Høye Director Commercial & Public lines
Stuart Winter Country Manager UK
Low deductibles should lead to disciplined market behaviour in the long run
Significant increase in opportunities, despite C-19, in Commercial sector
| In MNOK | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public | 18 | 128 | 177 | 237 | 342 |
| Housing | 0 | 60 | 123 | 155 | 167 |
| Commercial | 7 | 65 | 204 | 461 | 543 |
| Protector UK | 25 | 253 | 505 | 853 | 1 051 |
| - Property |
16 | 108 | 192 | 313 | 522 |
| - Motor |
7 | 71 | 184 | 378 | 320 |
*YTD pr. Q3 2020
18
A disciplined total market, but with variations
20
FCA Test Case
• No cover – Indirect impact through vehicle usage reduction
FCA Test Case
The need for clarity?
• 14 Insurers (including Protector – coinsurance basis)
Complex judgement (162 pages) which is wrong to summarise, but in general:
Widely portrayed as a victory for Insured's and for providing clarity in relation to cover
However, COVID 19 Exclusions / Clarifications were being provided from March onwards.
Policy cover:
Support the customers, manage the risk, reduce the exposure
H&S at work guidance
Risk Management Bulletins
• Coronavirus Act guidance
• Cover extensions – Devolved responsibilities
20%
1 Equity return excludes return on put options 2 Total return includes return on put options 28
HY fund investment totalling MNOK 514
Cost of risk expectations improved in Q3.
| Avg. ref. rate (NIBOR, STIBOR, etc.) |
0.2% | 0.1% |
|---|---|---|
| Avg. spread/risk premium (bps) |
235 | 205 |
| Yield | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Duration | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 30.06.20 | 30.09.20 |
|---|---|
| 11 857 | 11 788 |
| 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 235 | 205 |
1 Size excludes forward foreign currency contracts
2Avg. includes bank deposits
3Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower rating.
Credit duration2 1.9 1.6 Avg. rating3 A A
*40% Stockholm, 20% Copenhagen, Helsinki and Oslo
Vision
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Credible
Innovative
Bold
Committed
| in MNOK | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q1-Q3 2020 | Q1-Q3 2019 | FY '19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross premiums written | 671,4 | 732,4 | 4 787,4 | 4 551,6 | 5 100,5 |
| Gross premiums earned | 1 339,6 | 1 291,3 | 3 975,1 | 3 680,2 | 4 995,8 |
| Gross claims incurred | (1 080,2) | (1 139,0) | (3 269,3) | (3 360,8) | (4 723,9) |
| Earned premiums, net of reinsurance | 1 147,3 | 1 112,0 | 3 424,5 | 3 014,6 | 4 147,5 |
| Other insurance related income | 3,9 | 2,2 | 12,1 | 8,6 | 10,5 |
| Claims incurred, net of reinsurance | (952,3) | (935,2) | (2 905,0) | (2 819,4) | (3 949,1) |
| Sales cost | (86,5) | (53,7) | (238,0) | (168,2) | (233,5) |
| Administration cost | (46,0) | (38,0) | (150,3) | (118,9) | (179,9) |
| Commission from reinsurer | 13,6 | 8,4 | 55,4 | 59,5 | 57,2 |
| Other insurance related expenses Update table |
4,9 | (9,4) | 6,4 | (10,1) | (5,2) |
| Technical result | 80,9 | 84,2 | 193,0 | (42,5) | (163,0) |
| Add H1 columns Other income/costs |
(14,4) | (14,7) | (47,8) | (42,1) | (50,3) |
| Net financial income | 264,7 | (15,3) | 451,6 | 34,1 | 141,4 |
| Profit before tax | 331,2 | 54,1 | 596,9 | (50,4) | (71,9) |
| Tax | (25,7) | (33,4) | (123,7) | (33,6) | (4,1) |
| Discontinued operations | 41,6 | (26,6) | 63,4 | 42,5 | 71,5 |
| Net comprehensive income | (3,3) | (2,4) | 2,8 | (0,6) | (0,3) |
| Profit for the period | 343,8 | (8,3) | 539,3 | (42,1) | (4,9) |
| Claims ratio, net of ceded business (1) |
83,0 % | 84,1 % | 84,8 % | 93,5 % | 95,2 % |
| Expense ratio, net of ceded business (2) |
10,4 % | 7,5 % | 9,7 % | 7,5 % | 8,6 % |
| Combined ratio, net of ceded business (3) |
93,4 % | 91,6 % | 94,5 % | 101,1 % | 103,8 % |
| Gross claims ratio (4) |
80,6 % | 88,2 % | 82,2 % | 91,3 % | 94,6 % |
| Gross expense ratio (5) |
9,9 % | 7,1 % | 9,8 % | 7,8 % | 8,3 % |
| Gross combined ratio (6) |
90,5 % | 95,3 % | 92,0 % | 99,1 % | 102,8 % |
| Retention rate (7) |
85,6 % | 86,1 % | 86,1 % | 81.9 % | 83,0 % |
| Earnings per share (8) |
4,2 | (0.07) | 6,6 | (0.51) | (0,1) |
Earned premium effect from previous price increases
Relatively more volume from markets with higher broker/agent costs
Increased cost:
Commissions to brokers/agents, long term bonus plan, and increased underlying cost
| In millions | 30.09.2020 | 30.09.2019 | 31.12.2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owner-occupied property | 0.0 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| Financial assets | 11,757.0 | 9,318.4 | 9,219.8 |
| Derivatives | 99.3 | 21.2 | 32.6 |
| Bank deposits | 65.5 | 103.5 | 343.3 |
| Other assets | 2,679.3 | 2,812.8 | 2,705.2 |
| Discontinued operations |
2,132.2 | 2,660.9 | 2,428.5 |
| Total assets | 16,733.4 | 14.929,8 | 14,742.2 |
| Total equity | 2,574.6 | 1,978.5 | 2,019.3 |
| Subordinated loan capital | 1,243.3 | 1,243.3 | 1,243.3 |
| Total reserves | 10,052.7 | 8,696.2 | 8,339.2 |
| Derivatives | 47.6 | 19.8 | 45.5 |
| Other liabilities | 1,554.6 | 1,417.4 | 1,542.6 |
| Discontinued operations | 1,260.6 | 1,574.6 | 1,552.2 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 16,733.4 | 14,929.8 | 14,742.2 |
Composition of SCR:
Eligible SII capital:
| SHAREHOLDER NAME | # SHARES | % |
|---|---|---|
| AWILHELMSEN CAPITAL HOLDINGS AS | 7 435 437 | 8,63 % |
| STENSHAGEN INVEST AS | 7 126 353 | 8,27 % |
| VERDIPAPIRFOND ODIN NORDEN | 6 747 599 | 7,83 % |
| CITIBANK EUROPE PLC | 4 616 123 | 5,36 % |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG GAMBA | 3 550 082 | 4,12 % |
| HVALER INVEST AS* | 3 186 809 | 3,70 % |
| CLEARSTREAM BANKING S.A. | 2 290 098 | 2,66 % |
| ARTEL AS | 1 800 000 | 2,09 % |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG NORGE | 1 742 016 | 2,02 % |
| UTMOST PANEUROPE DAC - GP11940006 |
1 565 405 | 1,82 % |
| PERSHING LLC | 1 546 110 | 1,79 % |
| AS TANJA | 1 228 942 | 1,43 % |
| JOHAN VINJE AS | 1 187 841 | 1,38 % |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG AKTIV | 1 161 943 | 1,35 % |
| UBS AG | 1 135 431 | 1,32 % |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET PARETO INVESTMENT | 1 135 000 | 1,32 % |
| DYVI INVEST AS | 1 040 933 | 1,21 % |
| NORE-INVEST AS | 1 030 637 | 1,20 % |
| FROGNES AS | 899 916 | 1,04 % |
| AVANZA BANK AB | 871 062 | 1,01 % |
| 20 LARGEST | 54 696 051 | 63,49 % |
| TREASURY SHARES | 4 269 376 | 4.96% |
| OTHER | 27 190 178 | 31,56 % |
| TOTAL SHARES | 86 155 605 | 100.00% |
*CEO Sverre Bjerkeli
1 Share price adjusted for dividends, no reinvestment of dividends. Data pr. 30.09.2020
Vision
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Credible
Innovative
Bold
Committed
| COI | Protector incl. COI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | |||
| Gross premium written | 64 | 89 | 735 | 821 | ||
| Gross premium earned | 64 | 89 | 1 404 | 1 380 | ||
| Net premium earned | 56 | 48 | 1 203 | 1 160 | ||
| Gross combined ratio | 98,1 % | 107,5 % | 90,9 % | 96,1 % | ||
| Net claims ratio | 88,8 % | 103,6 % | 83,3 % | 84,9 % | ||
| Net cost ratio | -3,1 % | 0,2 % | 9,7 % | 7,2 % | ||
| Net combined ratio | 85,7 % | 103,9 % | 93,0 % | 92,1 % |
| COI | Protector incl. COI | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD 2020 YTD 2019 YTD 2020 YTD 2019 | ||||
| Gross premium written | 191 | 287 | 4 978 | 4 839 |
| Gross premium earned | 191 | 287 | 4 166 | 3 967 |
| Net premium earned | 125 | 187 | 3 549 | 3 201 |
| Gross combined ratio | 89,3 % | 62,0 % | 91,9 % | 91,6 % |
| Net claims ratio | 84,3 % | 44,0 % | 84,8 % | 90,6 % |
| Net cost ratio | -2,4 % | -3,3 % | 9,3 % | 6,9 % |
| Net combined ratio | 81,8 % | 40,7 % | 94,1 % | 97,6 % |
• Volume somewhat higher than expected – will exceed MNOK 200 in 2020
• Net CR 93.0% incl. discontinued business
• Discontinuation progressing in a good way and according to plan.
(1)Claims ratio, net of ceded business (2)Expense ratio, net of ceded business (3)Combined ratio, net of ceded business (4)Gross claims ratio (5)Gross expense ratio (6)Gross combined ratio (7)Retention rate (8)Earning per share
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