Protector Forsikring

Investor Presentation • Feb 4, 2021

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Q4 2020 and preliminary year end results

Investor presentation

Oslo, February 4th 2021

Sverre Bjerkeli Chief Executive Officer

Our new CEO as of September 2021

…when co-founder and CEO leaves according to retirement plan

• Henrik is 38 years old
• Educated from University of Colorado Boulder
• Worked in Protector since 2007
• Currently in lead of UK business and Public sector Nordic
• Have been deeply involved in establishing Sweden and Denmark
• Sverre's deputy CEO last five years
• Well respected professional, cultural and personal role model across borders
• Will be 'at the helm' of a strong top management team and a strong Protector-team

Our DNA

Vision The Challenger Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative

Bold

Committed

Result highlights 2020 A year for the history books – earnings per share at NOK 12

• Net combined ratio at 94.8% (103.8% in 2019) Turnaround
• GWP growth at 8% (2% in local currencies) Profitability comes first

• Average price increases Nordics at 13.7%

• Investment return of MNOK 970, or 8.0%

• Profit after tax of MNOK 982 (MNOK -5) EPS at NOK 12
• Solvency Capital Ratio at 188% solidity opens up for a shareholder distribution

Source: NTB

Result highlights Q4 Investments returning MNOK 448, and growth at 33%

• Net combined ratio at 95.4% (111.1% in Q4 2019)
• GWP growth at 33% (30% in local currencies), in a small quarter
• Average price increases Nordics at 9.5%

• Gjerdrum land slide has a effect of MNOK 45

• Net investment return of MNOK 448, or 3.4%

• Profit after tax of MNOK 442 (MNOK 37)

Volume update High Nordic client churn turning to normal in Q4

• GWP of MNOK 5 516 in 2020 (MNOK 5 100)
• MNOK 416 (8%) GWP growth (2% in LCY)
  • Driven by UK and Nordic price increases
• GWP of MNOK 729 in Q4 2020 (MNOK 549)
• MNOK 180 (33% GWP growth (30% in LCY)
  • Driven by UK, Sweden and Norway
  • Still moderate/high Nordic price increases
• Renewal rate at 83% in 2020; client churn higher than normal
• Q4 2020 marked a changing trend renewal rate at 94.3%
• New sales has been slow on average renewals/tenders not taken to market due to uncertainties relating to Covid-19

in MNOK
Business unit	FY '20	FY '19	Q4 '20	Q4 '19
Sweden	1 607	1 550	249	191
Norway	1 383	1 540	134	96
UK	1 328	853	277	188
Denmark	973	937	60	69
Finland	226	221	9	4
Protector	5 516	5 100	729	549
COI (in exit)	240	356	49	69
Protector incl. COI	5 757	5 457	778	618

Claims update Claims ratio at 84.6% – Denmark lagging behind

• Claims ratio improving significantly due to Nordic price and clean up activities

8

• Run-off losses at 2.2% in 2020 (-1.2% for FY 2019)
• Run-off losses at 3.5% in Q4 (-0.9% for Q4 2019)
• Large losses at 8.8% (6.8%), against 7% normalized
• Positive Covid-19 effect in 2020 estimated to approx. 1%
• Denmark with run-off losses, underlying much better
• Finland with run-off gains, underlying ok
• Norway with run-off gains, underlying good

	FY '20	FY '20	FY '19	FY '19
Business unit	Gross	Net	Gross	Net
Norway	81 %	80 %	100 %	99 %
Sweden	79 %	80 %	90 %	84 %
Denmark	113 %	115 %	96 %	99 %
UK	64 %	71 %	73 %	86 %
Finland	72 %	74 %	142 %	143 %
Protector	82.2 %	84.6 %	94.6 %	95.2 %

Business unit	Q4 '20 Gross	Q4 '20 Net	Q4 '19 Gross	Q4 '19 Net
Norway	74 %	72 %	132 %	116 %
Sweden	69 %	71 %	78 %	74 %
Denmark	131 %	133 %	93 %	97 %
UK	68 %	69 %	77 %	81 %
Finland	101 %	102 %	224 %	228 %
Protector	82.3 %	83.8 %	103.6 %	99.7 %

Large losses and run-off Gross large losses¹ of MNOK 156 (11.1%)

• Gross large losses of MNOK 156, or 11.1% in Q4
• Gross large losses at 8.8% in 2020
• Gross large loss definition slightly changed;

• Reserve changes > MNOK 10 included, excluding Workers' Comp claims (they are normally run-offs), and normalized level down from 8% to 7%.

• Net run-off loss at 2.2 % in 2020 (-1.2% in 2019)

• Net run-off loss at 3.5% in Q4 (-0.9% in Q4 2019)
• Some volatility in reserves must be expected within certain products/segments.

9

¹ Gross large losses defined as losses or loss adjustments > MNOK 10 ² Two very large claims capped at MNOK 100

Protector Combined Ratio Net CR at 94.8% in 2020 – underlying better

FY 2020

	Norway		Sweden			Denmark		UK		Finland		Protector
	FY 2020	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019
Gross premium written	1 383	1 540	1 607	1 550	973	937	1 328	853	226	221	5 516	5 100
Gross premium earned	1 443	1 584	1 605	1 492	983	922	1 131	744	217	254	5 380	4 996
Net premium earned	1 293	1 367	1 402	1 265	861	786	864	505	194	225	4 614	4 148
Gross combined ratio	89.7 %	105.7 %	91.8 %	101.5 %	119.2 %	102.5 %	76.8 %	84.7 %	77.5 %	147.1 %	92.5 %	102.8 %
Net claims ratio	80.2 %	99.2 %	79.8 %	83.7 %	115.1 %	98.8 %	70.7 %	86.4 %	74.0 %	143.1 %	84.6 %	95.2 %
Net cost ratio	6.1 %	6.1 %	12.8 %	11.0 %	9.6 %	5.9 %	14.2 %	12.7 %	3.5 %	10.6 %	10.2 %	8.6 %
Net combined ratio	86.3 %	105.3 %	92.7 %	94.7 %	124.7 %	104.7 %	84.9 %	99.1 %	77.5 %	153.7 %	94.8 %	103.8 %

Q4 2020

	Norway		Sweden		Denmark		UK		Finland		Protector
	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	Q4 2020	Q4 2019
Gross premium written	134	96	249	191	60	69	277	188	9	4	729	549
Gross premium earned	358	391	412	391	252	247	326	223	57	64	1 404	1 316
Net premium earned	320	345	357	347	222	214	239	171	52	56	1 189	1 133
Gross combined ratio	83.8 %	139.1 %	83.6 %	90.0 %	139.2 %	101.1 %	81.1 %	88.7 %	106.1 %	229.2 %	94.0 %	113.2 %
Net claims ratio	72.1 %	116.1 %	71.1 %	74.1 %	132.8 %	96.7 %	69.2 %	80.7 %	102.0 %	227.6 %	83.8 %	99.7 %
Net cost ratio	4.7 %	9.8 %	15.2 %	11.9 %	12.7 %	8.2 %	15.6 %	14.1 %	7.2 %	20.8 %	11.6 %	11.4 %
Net combined ratio	76.8 %	125.9 %	86.2 %	86.0 %	145.5 %	105.0 %	84.8 %	94.8 %	109.1 %	248.4 %	95.4 %	111.1 %

Gjerdrum land slide – 10 people have lost their lives

Largest Norwegian landslide in recent times – a small municipality left wounded

• Supporting our client Gjerdrum kommune is nr. 1 priority
• Norwegian Natural Perils Pool arrangement distribute risk and claims
• MNOK 900 in total estimated market claim from the pool arrangement
• Claims distribution towards pool members dependent on national fire insurance market share
• Gjerdrum land slide claim reserved in Q4 2020 with MNOK 45

lysforgjerdrum

COVID-19 effects 2020 and onwards

Approx. 1% positive effect in 2020, neutral impact expected going forward

• Some positive effects from frequency business (motor)
• Corporate fleets still on the road since logistics are mainly intact
• Some segments driving less (taxi and bus)
• Idle vehicles resulting in some lost volume in some countries
• Some negative effects from business interruption covers in UK
• UK Test case appeal ruled in insurance companies' disfavour
• Positive effects in 2020 estimated to 1%
• Neutral effect in total expected going forward, however with uncertainties

Cost development and Nordic cost program

Volume decrease in Nordics put pressure on cost advantage

• Still cost leader in the world but advantage shrinking in the Nordics
• Cost "the real way" is what you (and we) should focus on
• Gross cost incl. claims handling ex. broker commissions¹
• Long term bonus levels high in 2020 (linked to share price development)
• Introduction to Nordic cost program (CL8) → more to be shared at Capital Market Day in March
• Denmark and Finland far too high on cost
• Some improvements possible in Sweden and Norway
• IT & HQ are very good
• UK will grow into lower cost ratios as critical mass continue to develop

Volume 2021 and underlying realities 10% premium growth in local currencies in 2021

• 5% premium growth on January 1st (4% in LCY), despite phasing out MNOK 200 (9%)
• Exiting WC Health and Welfare segments in Norway government decision to including Covid-19 in workers' compensations product
• Exiting WC as single product in Denmark massive capital consumption and poor profitability over time
• Both exit situation are close to 100% out of our books per 1.1 renewal, no remaining exits going forward
• Moderate/high Nordic price increases also in 2021
• Hardening market
• Our competitors do also increase prices significantly
• Covid-19 World-wide reinsurance implications
• Normalized client churn in Q4 2020 and 1.1.2021

• We expect to grow premiums 10% (LCY) in 2021

Combined ratio considerations 2021

Improvements on it's way

Investments

Investment is core

Investments AUM up 23% - CAGR last 5 years at 15.2%

Investment performance Gain of MNOK 970 in 2020 and MNOK 448 in Q4

• 2020 return on investment portfolio at 8.0%, or MNOK 970
• Equity portfolio returning 36.1%, ex. put options

• Bond portfolio has gained 5.0%

• Q4 return on investment portfolio at 3.4%, or MNOK 448

• Equity portfolio returning 29.5%, ex. put options
• Bond portfolio returning 0.5%

• Remember that we invest for the long run; quarterly gains or losses will to a great extent be unrealized.

Bond portfolio statistics 5% return in 2020

• Bond portfolio returning 5.0%, or MNOK 536 in 2020
• Returning 0.5%, or MNOK 58 in quarter
  • Significant administrative cost effect in Q4 due to long term bonus agreements
• Running yield at 2.3%, before cost of risk
• Avg. spread up 121bps and avg. ref. rate down 99bps relative to YE2019
• HY portfolio totalling BNOK 4.0
• Net increase of MNOK 2 189 from YE2019 and MNOK 395 from Q3 '20
• HY fund investment totalling MNOK 1 009 (average credit rating at B)
• Volatile year, but very strong Nordic HY market in Q420
• DNB Markets Nordic HY index yielding -0.8% in 2020 and +3.2% in Q4
• Higher risk than avg. last 5 years during 2020. Still low losses, -0.1%
• Two bond positions with losses > MNOK 1, totalling MNOK 12

Portfolio data	31.12.20	30.09.20	31.12.19
Size bond & cash eq. (MNOK)1	11 603	11 788	9 757
Avg. ref. rate (NIBOR, STIBOR, etc.)	0.2%	0.1%	1.2%

Size bond & cash eq. (MNOK)1	11 603	11 788	9 757
Avg. ref. rate (NIBOR, STIBOR, etc.)	0.2%	0.1%	1.2%
Avg. spread/risk premium (bps)	210	205	89
Yield	2.3%	2.1%	2.1%
Duration	0.4	0.3	0.4
Credit duration2	1.4	1.6	2.0
Avg. rating3	A-	A	A+

¹ Size excludes forward foreign currency contracts

²Avg. includes bank deposits

³Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating

¹Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating

Equity portfolio statistics Portfolio returning 36.1% in 2020

• Equities gaining 36.1% in 2020, or 447 MNOK
• Equities gaining 29.5% in Q4, following a strong Q3.
• Equity share at 13.5%, up from 10.1% YE2019.
• Equity share at 9.8% by Q3 '20
• Discount to estimated intrinsic value at 26%
• Currently 16 companies in the portfolio
• No travel-, oil- or oil service companies

2020 investments – an outstanding year. Exceeding our long-term earnings power

2020 – an investment year for the history books

Disciplined investment approach and watchlist-preparations makes it possible to take advantage of opportunities in volatile periods

• Bond focus on credit quality and discipline has a price in years with low / no volatility; investors should expect periods of "underperformance"
• Concentrated equity portfolio where volatility outside of benchmark is to be expected

Actions taken – aggressively buying when the opportunity arise

1

2

3

• Frequent communication between Board, CEO, CFO, CRO and investments to assess risk capacity in volatile periods
• More than doubling High Yield portfolio with investments of BNOK 2 within a month in 2020

Return of MNOK 970 and a significant contributor to company ROE of 44% in 2020

• Do not get too excited about strong returns nor too disappointed of poor results in any given year measure us on long-term performance
• We will strive to always prioritize capital allocation alternatives with a goal to maximize shareholder return

Capital allocation alternatives – more to be said at CMD Goal to maximize shareholder return

Our DNA

Vision

The Challenger

Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative

Bold

Committed

Profit and loss 2020 profit of MNOK 982 – EPS at NOK 12

NOKm	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019
Gross premiums written	728.9	548.8	5 516.3	5 100.5	8% GWP growth
Gross premiums earned	1 404.5	1 315.6	5 379.6	4 995.8
Gross claims incurred	(1 155.3)	(1 363.2)	(4 424.6)	(4 723.9)
Earned premiums. net of reinsurance	1 189.0	1 132.9	4 613.5	4 147.5	11% growth in net earned premiums
Other insurance related income	7.4	2.0	19.5	10.5
Claims incurred. net of reinsurance	(996.3)	(1 129.7)	(3 901.4)	(3 949.1)	Net claims ratio down 10.6%-points
Sales cost	(93.3)	(65.3)	(331.3)	(233.5)
Administration cost	(71.0)	(61.0)	(221.3)	(179.9)	Growth arising from markets where broker commissions are present
Commission from reinsurer	26.2	(2.3)	81.6	57.2
Other insurance related income/expenses	(0.9)	4.9	5.5	(5.2)
Technical result	53.6	(120.6)	246.6	(163.0)
Other income/costs	(19.1)	(8.3)	(67.0)	(50.3)
Net financial income	413.6	107.3	865.2	141.4
Profit before tax	448.0	(21.5)	1 044.8	(71.9)
Tax	(36.2)	29.4	(160.0)	(4.1)
Discontinued operations	31.0	29.1	94.3	71.5
Net comprehensive income	(0.5)	0.3	2.4	(0.3)
Profit for the period	442.2	37.3	981.6	(4.9)	Highest profit ever – by far
Claims ratio. net of reinsurance	83.8 %	99.7 %	84.6 %	95.2 %
Expense ratio. net of reinsurance	11.6 %	11.4 %	10.2 %	8.6 %
Combined ratio. net of reinsurance	95.4 %	111.1 %	94.8 %	103.8 %
Gross claims ratio	82.3 %	103.6 %	82.2 %	94.6 %
Gross expense ratio	11.7 %	9.6 %	10.3 %	8.3 %
Gross combined ratio	94.0 %	113.2 %	92.5 %	102.8 %
Retention rate	84.7 %	86.1 %	85.8 %	83.0 %
Earnings per share	5.4	0.5	12.0	(0.1)

Balance sheet SCR-ratio at 188%

In millions	31.12.2020	31.12.2019
Owner-occupied property	0.0	12.8
Financial assets	11 988.6	9 219.8
Derivatives	47.9	32.6
Bank deposits	263.2	343.3
Other assets	2 554.9	2 705.2
Discontinued operations	1 895.7	2 428.5
Total assets	16 750.3	14 742.2
Total equity	3 030.5	2 019.3
Subordinated loan capital	1 473.0	1 243.3
Total reserves	9 185.1	8 339.2
Derivatives	61.4	45.5
Other liabilities	1 888.7	1 542.6
Discontinued operations	1 111.6	1 552.2
Total equity and liabilities	16 750.3	14 742.2

• Change in SCR-ratio driven by investment result and improved expectations on technical profitability
• Our downside is still protected by financial options and a solvencybased reinsurance agreement

Solvency II

Composition of SCR:

• Net insurance risk 69%
• Net market risk 22%
• Other risks 9%

Eligible SII capital:

26

0

• No dividend subtracted from eligible capital
• Guarantee provision subtracted from own funds

EK Sub.debt Int.assets Rev.net

tech.prov.

Risk margin Guarantee

fund & other liab. Unutilized funding

OF

Eligible SII capital

Distribution to shareholders NOK 3 per share for 2020

• Dividend of MNOK 246.9 (NOK 3 per share) to be considered by the Board in connection with the approval of annual accounts
• Subject to approval by the Norwegian Financial Supervisory Authority
• SCR ratio adjusted for such a dividend would be 176%
• Quarterly assessment going forward
• Dividend policy will be communicated during CMD 10 March

Summary 2020 and 2021 outlook 10% growth and CR 90-92% expected in 2021

• Profit after tax of MNOK 982 (MNOK -5) – EPS at NOK 12

• 2020 dividend of NOK 3 per share, and quarterly assessment going forward

• We expect 10% growth in 2021 and a combined ratio within the range of 90-92%.

• Welcome to our Capital Market Day March 10th at 10am

Our DNA

Vision

The Challenger

Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative

Bold

Committed

Appendix

Discontinued business

CR Protector incl. COI at 94.5% for 2020 – GWP take-down slower than expected

FY 2020

	COI		Protector incl. COI
	FY 2020	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019
Gross premium written	240	356	5 757	5 457
Gross premium earned	240	356	5 620	5 352
Net premium earned	169	224	4 782	4 372
Gross claims ratio	94.1 %	75.8 %	82.8 %	93.3 %
Gross cost ratio	0.0 %	1.6 %	9.8 %	7.8 %
Gross combined ratio	94.1 %	77.4 %	92.6 %	101.1 %
Net claims ratio	88.9 %	58.0 %	84.7 %	93.3 %
Net cost ratio	-1.9 %	-1.6 %	9.8 %	8.1 %
Net combined ratio	87.0 %	56.5 %	94.5 %	101.4 %

Q4 2020

	COI		Protector incl. COI
	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	Q4 2020	Q4 2019
Gross premium written	49	69	778	618
Gross premium earned	49	69	1 454	1 385
Net premium earned	44	37	1 233	1 170
Gross combined ratio	112.6 %	141.5 %	94.6 %	114.6 %
Net claims ratio	101.9 %	128.6 %	84.4 %	100.6 %
Net cost ratio	-0.4 %	7.0 %	11.2 %	11.2 %
Net combined ratio	101.5 %	135.6 %	95.6 %	111.9 %

Profit & loss – incl. discontinued business 2020 profit of MNOK 982 – EPS at NOK 12

NOKm	Q4 2020	Q4 2019	FY 2020	FY 2019
Gross premiums written	778.2	617.8	5 756.7	5 456.6
Gross premiums earned	1 453.8	1 384.6	5 619.9	5 351.9
Gross claims incurred	(1 210.9)	(1 460.4)	(4 650.8)	(4 993.7)
Earned premiums. net of reinsurance	1 233.3	1 170.1	4 782.4	4 371.6
Other insurance related income	7.4	2.0	19.5	10.5
Claims incurred. net of reinsurance	(1 041.5)	(1 177.5)	(4 051.5)	(4 079.1)
Sales cost	(93.3)	(65.7)	(331.3)	(239.3)
Administration cost	(71.0)	(61.0)	(221.3)	(179.9)
Commission from reinsurer	26.3	(4.5)	84.8	66.4
Other insurance related income/expenses	(2.4)	2.8	(2.3)	(11.8)
Technical result	51.4	(135.9)	260.8	(72.1)
Other income/costs	(20.4)	(10.1)	(74.1)	(61.6)
Net financial income	448.5	156.6	969.6	157.2
Profit before tax	479.4	10.7	1 156.2	23.5
Tax	(36.7)	26.3	(177.0)	(28.0)
Profit before components of comprehensive income	442.7	37.0	979.2	(4.5)
Components of comprehensive income	(0.5)	0.3	2.4	(0.3)
Profit for the period	442.2	37.3	981.6	(4.9)
Claims ratio. net of reinsurance	84.4 %	100.6 %	84.7 %	93.3 %
Expense ratio. net of reinsurance	11.2 %	11.2 %	9.8 %	8.1 %
Combined ratio. net of reinsurance	95.6 %	111.9 %	94.5 %	101.4 %
Gross claims ratio	83.3 %	105.5 %	82.8 %	93.3 %
Gross expense ratio	11.3 %	9.2 %	9.8 %	7.8 %
Gross combined ratio	94.6 %	114.6 %	92.6 %	101.1 %
Retention rate	84.8 %	84.5 %	85.1 %	81.7 %
Earnings per share	5.4	0.5	12.0	(0.1)

Key ratio description

Ratio

(1)Claims ratio, net of reinsurance (2)Expense ratio, net of reinsurance (3)Combined ratio, net of reinsurance (4)Gross claims ratio (5)Gross expense ratio (6)Gross combined ratio (7)Retention rate (8)Earning per share

Ratio calculation

(1)Claims incurred in % of earned premiums, net of reinsurance (2)Operating expenses in % of earned premiums, net of reinsurance (3)Net claims ratio + net expense ratio (4)Gross claims incurred in % of gross premiums earned (5)Sales and administration costs in % of gross premiums earned (6)Gross claims ratio + gross expense ratio (7)Earned premiums, net of reinsurance in % of gross earned premiums (8)Profit before other comprehensive income divided by weighted number of shares