Investor Presentation • Feb 17, 2021
Investor Presentation
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Oslo, 17 February 2021 Sverre Molvik, CEO
Operational and financial update
Market
Outlook and summary
Completed, ongoing and upcoming projects
EBITDA** margin (NGAAP)
Per cent
Per cent
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
** EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies
Highlights
Operational and financial update Market
Outlook and summary
Note: Sales value is adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures
Units sold are sales contracts entered into with customers pursuant to the Norwegian Housing Construction Act. In accordance with the IFRS, they are recognised as income on delivery.
Note: Sales value is adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures
*Total columns show Selvaag Bolig's gross sales **Columns excluding dotted areas show Selvaag Bolig's net sales
Sales value 12 months rolling Units sold 12 months rolling
Units sold are sales contracts entered into with customers pursuant to the Norwegian Housing Construction Act. In accordance with the IFRS, they are recognised as income on delivery.
Units
Note: Number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures
· Q4 2020: 92% of construction volume in Greater Oslo Area*
· Expected completions for the full year 2021: 867 units
Note: Sales value and number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures * Includes: Oslo, Lørenskog, Follo, Tønsberg, Asker
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding *Q1 2020 adjusted EBITDA margins of 56.1% excluding other gains of NOK 1 029m financial expenses included in project costs.
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs.
NOK million NOK million
* Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting (NGAAP) Note: EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies
NOK million
Note: Amounts < NOK -20m < NOK 20m are excluded from the cash flow overview
-415
Net change in borrowings
Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December 2020
Note: UP transaction completed in Q12020. Land bank reduction of NOK 657 million booked
NOK million
582
1 491
NOK million
* Part of SBO land bank not included in the UP transaction
Total Q3 2020 net interest-bearing debt NOK 2 510 million
NOK million
* Margin to 3m NIBOR
** Repurchase agreements portfolio B
*** + 2.00% fee at property repurchase
* Repurchase agreements portfolio B
** Includes EPS of NOK 11.02 and DPS of NOK 22 from UP transaction
Proposed dividend for H2 2020 NOK 3.00 per share * Excluding earnings and dividend from UP transaction
Fee structure:
Eliminates need for equity when purchasing land, as SBO pay 50% of purchasing price at construction start and 50%
Benefits for Selvaag Bolig:
land plots
(break fee)
More efficient and predictable funding of existing and new
Increases competitiveness when making land purchases - Down-side risk for SBO limited to 48 months option premium
Selvaag Bolig sold most of its land bank to Urban Property in January 2020, entering a long-term and strategic partnership. Urban Property is a financially sound, well capitalized and predictable partner.
Residential development value chain: cooperation between Selvaag Bolig and Urban Property
| Lilleakerveien 47 Oslo |
Årstadfältet Stockholm |
|
|---|---|---|
| · Western part of Oslo |
· Söderort transformation district |
|
| · Up to 150 units |
· 120 units |
· 150 units
Operational and financial update
Outlook and summary
23 Note: Completions exclusive of student- and senior housing * Estimates based on actual start and time of construction
Sources: Historic data: Statistics Norway (SSB), Forecasted housing completions: Hawii analyse, Forecasted housing need: Prognosesenteret Note: Number of persons per household in Oslo: 1.90
Note: Housing demand calculated on parameters such as number of persons per household, lag on housing development, housing demolition
Source: SA - ECON Nye Boliger
* Adjusted for temporary withdrawals or cancellations during the period
Source: SA - ECON Nye Boliger
* Adjusted for temporary withdrawals or cancellations during the period
Source: Eiendomsverdi
Source: Eiendomsverdi
Source: Eiendomsverdi
Source: Eiendomsverdi
* Include Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg
Source: Eiendom Norge
* Nominal price change
** Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg
Highlights Operational and financial update Market Outlook and summary
· Targeting new areas for future growth
· Record high Q4 and H2 sales value
Next event: 1 st quarter 2021 26 May 2021
Source: Oslo Børs
The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 40 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the company's liquidity forecasts and capital adequacy.
The company will maintain an equity ratio of minimum 30 per cent
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
* All numbers in brackets from previous quarter
| # of shares | % share |
|---|---|
| 50 180 087 | 53,5% |
| 6 049 720 | 6,5% |
| 2 652 746 | 2,8% |
| 2 632 236 | 2,8% |
| 1 989 929 | 2,1% |
| 1 853 972 | 2,0% |
| 1 540 053 | 1,6% |
| 870 000 | 0,9% |
| 776 249 | 0,8% |
| 709 324 | 0,8% |
| 650 000 | $0,7\%$ |
| 650 000 | 0,7% |
| 601 588 | 0,6% |
| 600 000 | $0,6\%$ |
| 547 221 | 0,6% |
| 528 300 | 0,6% |
| 522 650 | 0,6% |
| 510 603 | 0,5% |
| 510 005 | 0,5% |
| 500 000 | 0,5% |
| 74 874 683 | 79,9% |
| 18 891 005 | 20,1% |
| 93 765 688 | 100,0% |
* Further information regarding shareholders is presented at: http://sboasa.no/en
| SELVAAG AS | 50 180 087 | 53,5% |
|---|---|---|
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB * | 6 049 720 | 6,5% |
| PARETO INVEST AS | 2 652 746 | 2,8% |
| Morgan Stanley & Co. Int. Plc. * | 2 632 236 | 2,8% |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG GAMBA | 1 989 929 | 2,1% |
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London * | 1 853 972 | 2,0% |
| State Street Bank and Trust Comp * | 1 540 053 | 1,6% |
| MUSTAD INDUSTRIER AS | 870 000 | 0,9% |
| J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. * | 776 249 | 0,8% |
| Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. * | 709 324 | 0,8% |
| Landkreditt Utbytte | 650 000 | 0,7% |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET HOLBERG NORGE | 650 000 | 0,7% |
| SANDEN AS | 601 588 | 0,6% |
| BANAN II AS | 600 000 | 0,6% |
| SPARHANS AS | 547 221 | 0,6% |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET EIKA SPAR | 528 300 | 0,6% |
| Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. * | 522 650 | 0,6% |
| Morgan Stanley & Co. International | 510 603 | 0,5% |
| J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. * | 510 005 | 0,5% |
| SEB PRIME SOLUTIONS SISSENER CANOP | 500 000 | 0,5% |
| Total 20 largest shareholders | 74 874 683 | 79,9% |
| Other shareholders | 18 891 005 | 20,1% |
| Total number of shares | 93 765 688 | 100,0% |
Source: Eiendomsverdi
* Stavanger area includes: Randaberg, Sandnes, Sola, Stavanger
Share of total population in Oslo and Akershus Share of total population growth in Oslo and Akershus
Source: Statistics Norway
Land bank exposure
Trondheim 460 units
Geographical spread
Stockholm 310 units
Greater-Oslo 9 122 units
Stavanger 758 units
Bergen 754 units
Note: The numbers represent the size of the land portfolio as at 30 September 2020. All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures. 1) Greater Oslo area: Oslo, Akershus, Buskerud, Vestfold and Østfold, 2) The residential property development portfolio consists of land plots that are to be paid for when planning permission is received. The portfolio has a development potential of ~6 250 residential units.
45
Lørenskog 2 080 units Lørenskog Stasjonsby 625 units Skårer bolig 850 units
LSV 300 units
Pallplassen 305 units
2 080 units
Oslo South 315 units Gjertsrud Stensrud 315 units
Follo/Østfold 1 495 units Langhus 215 units Solberg 122 units Ski 88 units Grenseveien 340 units Fredrikstad 730 units
Lillestrøm
Bjerke 1 025 units
*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures
*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures
Units
Operating revenues Adjusted EBITDA-margin
*Q1 2020 adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.0% excluding other gains of NOK 1 029m
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs. The difference compared to reported EBITDA is due to interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in JVs.
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs.
* Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting (NGAAP)
NOK million
** Project margins are exclusive of overhead costs
* Net income attributable to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA
** Based on equity at the start of the period (attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA)
Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m Q1 2020 Net income including Other gains of NOK 1 029m
| Income statement IFRS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (figures in NOK million) | Q4 2020 | Q4 2019 | 2020 | 2019 |
| Total operating revenues | 1 347.2 | 1 414.4 | 2 698.0 | 3 368.8 |
| Project expenses | (934.9) | (936.7) | (1 967.6) | (2 279.5) |
| Other operating expenses | (80.9) | (88.8) | (256.8) | (274.1) |
| Associated companies and joint ventures | 2.8 | (13.7) | 135.0 | 62.2 |
| EBITDA | 334.3 | 375.2 | 608.5 | 877.5 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | (2.5) | (2.8) | (9.8) | (12.7) |
| Other gains (loss) | 16.4 | - | 1 045.1 | - |
| EBIT | 348.2 | 372.4 | 1 643.8 | 864.7 |
| Net financial expenses | (0.7) | 2.3 | 9.7 | (10.7) |
| Profit/(loss) before taxes | 347.5 | 374.6 | 1 653.5 | 854.0 |
| Income taxes | (103.5) | (96.1) | (129.9) | (199.5) |
| Net income | 243.9 | 278.6 | 1 523.6 | 654.5 |
| (figures in NOK million) | Q4 2020 | Q3 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 383.4 | 383.4 | 383.4 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 7.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 |
| Investments in associated companies and joint ventures | 406.9 | 398.6 | 430.3 |
| Other non-current assets | 228.1 | 236.2 | 280.4 |
| Total non-current assets | 1 025.7 | 1 023.6 | 1 099.6 |
| Inventories (property) | 3 940.8 | 4 274.6 | 3 636.7 |
| - Land | 909.3 | 979.0 | 1 020.8 |
| - Land held for sale | |||
| - Work in progress | 2 911.0 | 3 171.6 | 2 433.2 |
| - Finished goods | 120.5 | 123.9 | 182.6 |
| Other current receivables | 119.0 | 491.8 | 133.3 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 885.3 | 361.3 | 1 178.7 |
| Assets held for sale | - | - | 864.2 |
| Total current assets | 4 945.1 | 5 127.7 | 5 812.8 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 5 970.8 | 6 151.2 | 6 912.4 |
| Equity attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA* | 2 430.0 | 2 170.8 | 3 374.2 |
| Non-controlling interests | 7.8 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Total equity | 2 437.8 | 2 178.6 | 3 382.1 |
| Non-current interest-bearing liabilities | 1 100.3 | 1 255.6 | 1 092.3 |
| Other non-current non interest-bearing liabilities | 132.3 | 151.9 | 124.2 |
| Total non-current liabilities | 1 232.6 | 1 407.5 | 1 216.5 |
| Current interest-bearing liabilities | 1 368.1 | 1 616.1 | 1 161.0 |
| Other current non interest-bearing liabilities | 932.2 | 949.1 | 1 152.8 |
| Total current liabilities | 2 300.4 | 2 565.1 | 2 313.9 |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | 5 970.8 | 6 151.2 | 6 912.4 |
* Corresponding to a book value of NOK per share 25.92
| Cash flow statement | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (figures in NOK million) | Q4 2020 | Q4 2019 | 2020 | 2019 |
| Net cash flow from operating activities | 922.9 | 943.7 | 1 615.7 | 985.9 |
| Net cash flow from investment activities | 4.7 | (9.7) | 413.8 | 64.1 |
| Net cash flow from financing activities | (403.6) | (243.6) | (2 322.9) | (528.4) |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents | 524.0 | 690.4 | (293.4) | 521.7 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at start of period | 361.3 | 488.3 | 1 178.7 | 657.0 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | 885.3 | 1 178.7 | 885.3 | 1 178.7 |
| Q4 19 | Q1 20 | Q2 20 | Q3 20 | Q4 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units sold | 140 | 164 | 142 | 178 | 199 |
| Construction starts | 248 | 15 | 31 | 196 | 254 |
| Units completed | 254 | 89 | 104 | 212 | 286 |
| Units delivered | 214 | 114 | 122 | 212 | 272 |
| Units under construction | 1 504 | 1 431 | 1 357 | 1 342 | 1 310 |
| Proportion of sold units under construction | 70 % | 76 % | 78 % | 77 % | 74 % |
| Completed unsold units | 56 | 37 | 25 | 19 | 19 |
| Sales value of units under construction (NOK million) | 7 155 | 6 742 | 6 327 | 6 660 | 6 413 |
| Number of employees | 87 | 87 | 87 | 85 | 85 |
Note: EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies
| Property | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| (figures in NOK million) | development | Other | Total |
| Operating revenues | 937.9 | 11.5 | 949.4 |
| Project expenses | (697.2) | (0.2) | (697.4) |
| Other operating expenses | (15.5) | (67.8) | (83.3) |
| EBITDA (percentage of completion) | 225.2 | (56.6) | 168.6 |
| Note: Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting. | |||
| IFRS EBITDA for the quarter, per segment | |||
| Operating revenues | 1 335.7 | 11.5 | 1 347.2 |
| Project expenses | (934.7) | (0.2) | (934.9) |
| Other operating expenses | (13.0) | (67.8) | (80.9) |
| Share of income (losses) from associated companies | |||
| and joint ventures | 2.8 | - | 2.8 |
| EBITDA | 390.8 | (56.6) | 334.3 |
| Units in production | 1 310 | N/A | N/A |
| Units delivered | 272 | N/A | N/A |
Note: EBITDA is operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and other gains (losses).
| Property | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| (figures in NOK million) | development | Other | Total |
| Operating revenues | 3 165.2 | 50.7 | 3 215.9 |
| Project expenses | (2 316.4) | (0.7) | (2 317.1) |
| Other operating expenses | (48.5) | (218.3) | (266.8) |
| EBITDA (percentage of completion) | 800.4 | (168.4) | 632.0 |
| Note: Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting. | |||
| IFRS EBITDA full year per segment | |||
| Operating revenues | 2 647.3 | 50.7 | 2 698.0 |
| Project expenses | (1 966.7) | (0.7) | (1 967.4) |
| Other operating expenses | (38.7) | (218.3) | (257.0) |
| Share of income (losses) from associated companies | |||
| and joint ventures | 135.0 | - | 135.0 |
| EBITDA | 776.9 | (168.4) | 608.5 |
| Units in production | I/A | N/A | N/A |
| Units delivered | I/A | N/A | N/A |
NOK million
Units
Source: Selvaag Bolig and Eurostat
Household debt in % of net disposable income (2019) Homeownership rate (2018)
Source: OECD, Prognosesenteret
Homeownership rate among immigrants in Norway (per year living in Norway)
Source: Bloomberg, UN
* Central bank rates
Wages & disposable income 2019 – 2023e Prices & interest rates 2019 – 2023e
Source: Central Bank of Norway
Example apply a land ownership period in Urban Property of 3-4 years, and a finance cost of 4% on all capital employed in the project
| 1 | PROJECT CALCULATIONS 2 |
PROJECT CALCULATIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEFORE URBAN PROPERTY | AFTER URBAN PROPERTY | ||||
| Figures for illustration purposes only | MNOK | % | MNOK | % | |
| Sales revenue | 348.5 | 100.0% | 348.5 | 100.0% | |
| Construction cost | 195.8 | 56.2% | 195.8 | 56.2% | |
| Land cost | 69.7 | 20.0% | 85.2 | 24.4% | |
| Other costs | 24.5 | 7.0% | 24.5 | 7.0% | |
| Project cost | 290.0 | 83.2% | 305.5 | 87.7% | |
| Net finance (excluding Urban Property) | 16.8 | 4.8% | 5.3 | 1.5% | |
| TOTAL REVENUE | 348.5 | 100.0% | 348.5 | 100.0% | |
| TOTAL COST | 306.8 | 88.0% | 310.9 | 89.2% | |
| PROFIT | 41.7 | 12.0 % | 37.7 | 10.8% | |
| Internal rate of return (IRR) | 12.2% | 28.0% | |||
1
2
In total marginal lower project margins, but significantly increased IRR and RoE
* Assuming flat market development
| Statements of financial position | Reported | Transaction | Pro forma | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (figures in MNOK) | Q4 2019 | Sale | Dividend | Q4 2019 |
| ASSETS | ||||
| Investments in associated companies and joint ventures | 430 | 0 | 0 | 430 |
| Loans to associated companies and joint ventures | 130 | -59 | 0 | 71 |
| Other non-current assets | 741 | -143 | 0 | 598 |
| Total non-current assets | 1 301 | -202 | 0 | 1 100 |
| Inventory | 4 299 | -663 | 0 | 3 637 |
| Other current receivables | 133 | 0 | 0 | 133 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1 179 | 1 751 | -2 055 | 875 |
| Total current assets | 5 611 | 1 088 | -2 055 | 4 645 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 6 912 | 887 | -2 055 | 5 744 |
| EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | ||||
| Total equity | 3 383 | 1 043 | -2 055 | 2 371 |
| LIABILITIES | ||||
| Other non-current non interest-bearing liabiliteies | 157 | 0 | 0 | 157 |
| Non-current interest bearing liabilities | 1 128 | -157 | 0 | 971 |
| Total non-current liabilities | 1 284 | -157 | 0 | 1 128 |
| Current interest bearing liabilities | 1 169 | 0 | 0 | 1 169 |
| Other current non interest-bearing liabilities | 1 076 | 0 | 0 | 1 076 |
| Total current liabilities | 2 245 | 0 | 0 | 2 245 |
| Total liabilities | 3 530 | -157 | 0 | 3 373 |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | 6 912 | 887 | -2 055 | 5 744 |
| Equity% | 49 % | 41 % | ||
| Dividend per share (NOK) | 22,0 |
· Transaction value NOK 3 360m
· Repayment of debt NOK 1 160m
· Free liquidity from transaction NOK 1 800m
· EO dividend NOK 22 per share
· Pro forma equity down ~NOK 1 000 to NOK 2 364m - Equity ratio 41%, down from 49%
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