Investor Presentation • Feb 19, 2021
Investor Presentation
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| Start | Finish | Time (min) | Subject | Presenter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 09:25 | 25 | 1. CEO state of the union | Rolf Barmen |
| 09:25 | 09:50 | 25 | 2. Regulations and M&A | Arnstein Flaskerud |
| 09:50 | 10:00 | 10 | Break | |
| 10:00 | 10:25 | 25 | 3. Consumer segment | Christian Kalvenes |
| 10:25 | 10:40 | 15 | 4. Business segment | Roger Finnanger |
| 10:40 | 10:55 | 15 | 5. Nordic expansion | Per Heiberg-Andersen |
| 10:55 | 11:05 | 10 | 7. New financial targets | Ole Johan Langenes |
| 11:05 | 11:25 | 20 | Q&A |
Rolf Barmen (CEO)
19th February
Rolf Barmen Chief Executive Officer
Arnstein Flaskerud EVP - Head of Strategy and M&A
Per Heiberg-Andersen EVP - Nordic
Roger Finnanger EVP - Head of Business
Alf Kåre Hjartnes EVP - Head of Technology and Digitalisation
Solfrid Aase EVP – Service Companies
Solfrid Andersen EVP - Head of Operations
Birte Strander Chief Financial Officer (on maternity leave)
Number of deliveries across all segments, including ~60k deliveries in Extended Alliance Number of deliveries and subscribers at the end of Q4 2020
Source: Company information
1) NGAAP until 2015, IFRS for 2016 and 2017. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 excluding estimate deviations, other gains & losses, special items and depreciation of acquisitions
Finland
| efortum | oomi | VÄRE | Laketa | loiste | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (CC) ECTIMAAN ENERGIA Fortum |
Oomi | EL SANKO Vaatan Salati |
Ľ, Gords: Colean Elsany |
Campbell tamperoon Sind Gallery |
Kymenteskom Sinki | |
| WELEN | VATTENFALL | متعدد LUMME ENERGIA Lumme Energia |
RSC ENTICAL KS& Energia SPKS |
P Forscore emergia Ø kroean Hergia |
teinapien Energia 63 GRII Energy |
Energiamyand Britishham Seudun Saha |
| Helen | Vattenfall | TURKU ENERGIA Interfaces |
Publish Kartatan SHAAN |
۰ Lietman SHARFORNS € Kokkolan Energía |
Notwin | Nivos Despite Desable The Sellate Energia |
Sources: Company information
Source: 1) NVE's long-term power market analysis, October 2020
Net revenue adj. and elspot prices1,2
According to NVE's forecast, the long term Norwegian electricity price is expected at around NOK 40 øre/kWh over the next 20 years, but might vary significantly in the short term due to i.a. variations in weather
The transition towards more renewable energy is expected to reduce flexible production by 30% over the next 20 years
Increased demand for risk mitigating products across all segments, driven by higher elspot volatility
1) NordPool's yearly system prices in NOK
2) NGAAP until 2015, IFRS for 2016 and 2017. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 excluding estimate deviations, other gains & losses, special items and depreciation of acquisitions
• Larger players get a natural diversification to local price risk
Fjordkraft has a low risk tolerance with clear mandates and strict governance
Source: 1) NVE's long-term power market analysis, October 2020
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
| 6 | Attractive financial profile with a high cash conversion and limited capital expenditure requirements |
|---|---|
| 5 | Strong competitive advantages and a robust platform for further organic and bolt-on acquisition driven growth across the Nordics |
| 4 | Unmatched platform for distribution and digital ecosystem provides best in class service offering to consumer and business customers |
| 3 | A diversified multi-brand strategy with Fjordkraft as the spearhead and the no. 1 retail brand in Norway |
| 2 | A proven business model providing 'need to have' electricity combined with sought after value-added services - supporting differentiation and margin robustness |
| 1 | Operating in the attractive Nordic electricity retailing market with a stable demand profile and a regulatory environment levelling the playing field, beneficial to pure play retailers |
Arnstein Flaskerud (EVP Head of Strategy and M&A)
19th February 2021
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
Collects value from products and services
Collects value from the platform users
Unbundling of vertically integrated companies and separation of the end user business and monopoly activities
Digitalisation of the industry. Smart meters and Elhub streamlining processes between all the players
The EU Clean Energy Package supporting the EU targets for 2030. Important elements:
Unbundling Unbundling of brand name and New Grid Fee models
2020 - 2021 2022 - 2023
New Grid fee models where the grid companies have flexibility to design their own tariffs – Time of use and other models
Significant loss of competitive advantage for (regional/local) players
Sources: Company information
| Capital Markets Day | 2021 21
2017 - 2019 2020 - 2022
Margin squeeze tests bi-annually to evaluate Telenor's pricing scheme
This has led to several price reductions to our wholesale procurement
Still unbalanced rules highly favoring the network operators
New market regulation is now published from the regulator
Sources: Company information
Sources: Company information
| Driver | Description | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory changes | Significant loss of competitive advantage for regional/local players | ||
| Merging of grid companies | Consolidation in other parts of the value chain is supporting a more horizontal structure |
||
| Competition and scale | Incumbents are rigged for local competition – lack of scale will lower market share and profitability |
||
| Technological development | Increasing technological debt due to digitalisation of all processes in addition to higher customer expectations and VAS competition |
The Fjordkraft Factory and platform, our system and process architecture, enables significant scale and synergies
Offers scale through industrial partnership, as an attractive alternative strategy to regional players
Financial power and listed shares as an attractive acquisition currency - offers the prospects the opportunity to stay exposed to the downstream part of the value chain
System and process architecture
| 1 | We expect that M&A activities will fulfill a major part of our Roadmap to Growth |
|---|---|
| 2 | EU regulations in the electricity market are supporting Fjordkraft's growth strategy, although it takes more time in Sweden and Finland |
| 3 | The electricity market is highly fragmented and provides a substantial number of attractive M&A prospects |
| 4 | Fjordkraft has the ambitions and experience to consolidate, and offers a wide range of attractive M&A alternatives |
Christian Kalvenes (EVP Head of Consumer)
19th February
Source: Company information, TNS Kantar, Norsk Kundebarometer
Attractive price plans, value added- and advisory services supporting competitive differentiation and margin robustness
33 Sources: Company information
My page
The Fjordkraft app fjordkraft.no
• The Fjordkraft app has been embraced by our customers
Attractive product offering with differentiating value added services and loyalty program,
award-winning customer service and a digital ecosystem empowering the customer
Fjordkraft is a service provider in the mobile consumer market with highly attractive subscription plans through Telenor's network
The No. 1 service provider for mobile phone connectivity in the consumer segment1
~130 thousand mobile subscriptions and reached the targeted 125k subscriptions in the Fjordkraft brand by year-end 2020.
Highly attractive pricing across all data plans
Award-winning customer service #1 2
Newly launched marketplace selling 2nd hand mobile phones
Source: Company information, NKOM, EPSI
1) NKOM ekomstastistikken
2) Kantar's KS-Index January 2021
| 1 | The largest player in the Norwegian consumer market, supplemented by both a strong fighting brand and a regional brand |
|---|---|
| 2 | A broad product range with value-added services and an industry leading loyalty program |
| 3 | A digital ecosystem that offers a unique customer experience |
| 4 | The No.1 service provider for mobile phone connectivity in the consumer market, adding loyalty to the customer base |
Roger Finnanger (EVP Head of Business)
19th February
6500 Commercial property customers
400 Biggest supplier to public entities
4500 Agriculture & aquaculture
Source: Company information, Kantar TNS, Energibarometeret
Business
Fjordkraft Entelios Industry Lyse Hafslund
Wide product range addressing varying risk profiles
Web-based reporting ('Min Bedrift') supporting energy usage monitoring and management
Energy as a service, Energy management and advisory services
Attractive price plans, value added- and advisory services supporting competitive differentiation and margin robustness
Momentum for Change "Lighthouse activity"
Web based solution supporting implementation of climate accounting, climate initiatives and climate neutrality
Further development in progress
Reducing emissions by offering solar panel and heat pump solutions
No need for investments
Offering EV charging to Co owners and business
Billing service
Reports on all energy sources
| 1 | Strong distribution power and a market leading product offering, providing rapid market penetration on new products and services |
|---|---|
| 2 | A high brand awareness and large customer portfolio makes Fjordkraft an attractive partner for new sustainable solutions |
| 3 | New value added services, including "energy-as-a-service", strengthens Fjordkraft's position and climate commitment |
| 4 | Becoming a pan-Nordic retailer enables new opportunities for further growth |
Per Heiberg-Andersen (EVP Nordic)
February 19th, 2021
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
Source: Company information 52
Common power exchanges - Nord Pool and Nasdaq Pan-Nordic power trading wholesale services Consumer behaviour and technology adaption Pan-Nordic one-stop-shopping in B2B segment Drivers for consolidation (scale)
A more diversified energy mix in SE and FI Historical power market price levels Product mix (fixed price is most common) El Hub not yet established National regulations Language and culture
Possible synergies in areas such as: Energy procurement and risk mitigation Technology platform Operations Nordic B2B cooperation Various best practices
Local approach and adjustments: Build strong national competence and management Different product mix Business processes adjustments M&A-strategy Careful developing brand strategy
Revision of current market processes. In the big picture, integrated companies prefer status quo, whereas the pure sales companies prefer a supplier centric model
Integrated companies with strong local/regional positions
Sources: Company information
01 Further M&A growth, primarily targeting regional publicly owned energy companies where electricity retailing is not considered core business
02 Replicate platform and efficient operations based on Fjordkraft's model, adjusted to fit SE and FI market and regulations
03 Leverage from product offering, digital UX and support further development of brand, product range and distribution
| 1 | A good start through acquisition of Nordic Green Energy |
|---|---|
| 2 | SE and FI are attractive markets with significant M&A potential |
| 3 | Replicate Fjordkraft's platform and support product development |
| 4 | Become a top four player in both SE and FI by the end of 2023 |
Ole Johan Langenes (Acting CFO)
February 19th, 2021
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
| Group | Targeting high-single digit net revenue growth. 2021 expected above double digit due to acquisitions in 2020 Targeting a sustainable EBIT margin of 36-38% Ambition to act as a consolidator in a fragmented market |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | Growth Targeting mid-single digit annual net revenue growth |
||
| EBIT Targeting a sustainable level of 32-34% margin |
|||
| Targeting a sustainable level of mid-single digit growth. 2021 expected above double digit due to acquisitions in 2020 Growth |
|||
| Business | EBIT Targeting a sustainable level of 52-54% margin |
||
| Nordic | Targeting an annual EBIT contribution of ~50 NOKm |
||
| NGI | Targeting a 50% improvement in nominal EBIT from 2020 to 2021 and a positive run-rate EBIT from late 2021 |
||
| Cap.ex. | Targeted to be in the area of NOK 65-70m annually |
||
| Leverage | Targeting a leverage of 2-2.5x NIBD/EBITDA with variations intra-year due to seasonality in net working capital Current balance sheet enabling substantial capacity to finance acquisitions |
||
| Dividend | Target pay-out ratio of at least 80% of net income, adjusted for certain cash and non-cash items2 Attractive and increasing dividend |
1) Outlook on an organic basis, not including additional M&A transactions in the period. All targets are based on adjusted figures, further described under alternative performance measures in the
quarterly report
2) Adjusted EBIT + net finance – estimated tax – amortisation of acquisition debt
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