Investor Presentation • Mar 9, 2021
Investor Presentation
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This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Protector Forsikring ASA (the "Company"). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligationsto update or correct any of the information set out herein.
These materials may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and is not prepared or made in connection with, an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, it does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, its affiliates or any of their respective advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "US Securities Act"), and are offered and sold only outside the United States in accordance with an exemption from registration provided by Regulation S of the US Securities Act.
This presentation should not form the basis of any investment decision. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offering documents published in relation to such an offering. For further information about the Company, reference is made public disclosures made by the Company, such as filings made with the Oslo Stock Exchange, periodic reports and other materials available on the Company's web pages.
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
| Norway | Sweden | Denmark | Finland | PF Nordics | UK | PF Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 34 | 48 | 28 | 14 | 124 | 41 | 165 |
| Claim Handlers | 25 | 34 | 19 | 12 | 90 | 30 | 120 |
| Technisians/supporters | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| Managers incl. controllers | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| Rolls Royce | Cost control through Recovery and Reduction |
|---|---|
| Clean Desk | No delays in Claims handling – without compromising on quality |
| ICF | Instant customer feedback. Customer satisfaction, follow up dissatisfied |
| Pharaoh | Counter fraud within Claims handling, through "Key Fraud Indicators" |
| Rolls Royce | 14 % improvement |
|---|---|
| Clean Desk | 91% clean. 26.000 of 28.500 working days |
| ICF | 88% satisfied ("Good" or "Very good") |
| Pharaoh | 1% savings, OK result. Higher potential |
All relevant KPI's available to managers 24/7
Large Loss follow-up tools to ensure perfect control and learning loops
ClaimHeader ID+C1:C1:F50 912494 Template last updated 23.02.2021 Customer Name Rauma Boliger AS Concern name Rauma kommune Customer ID 441469 Concern segment Original Client evaluation: Green Did UW deliver? Green Did renewal resp. deliver? Green Did RM deliver? Green
Customer info
UW, RM and/or renewal assesment
• Monthly reports, incl. yellow / red flags
| Reported - Closed - Open 45 658 - 49 927 - 10 572 |
82.1 mill. 8405 stk. $(1396)$ $(1796)$ |
Coming soon | Score 384 Avg. EResponses 94% 3.4 1.244 |
0.0% 0.0m # 0 | $0.0%10.0m$ 1#4 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Report | Monthly Report - Detail | |||||||||||||
| Ported | $ -$ | Purked V/17th | 710 | VID IV | Arm Africa | ENgineer | STATE | Postal LY | Printed V/174 | $rac{1}{2}$ | VID LY | ALLENTA | ||
| · Reported Closed 1, time Dram claims Open / Reported To Avg. time closed list time RR % of perments ER. amount (mill) 107 To Hanny Hill seved of payments Hill-sevings (mill) Pharach saved of payments Phanady savings (mil) Closed / PTR hotel Closed / FTS allocated Paid (mill) Democratismal Fears |
45 658 49.927 10.572 23% 102 12% 82.1 SFS m D.D. öü. to. 164 Det. 640.8 3.0 |
53,332 52.242 34,809 28% Ŧ. y. 63.3 525 m ïΰ ñ 0.0 220 $-433$ 663.6 3.6 |
154% $-476$ -39% $\overline{1}$ 196 250 32% 'n, m $\sim$ on. $\sim$ on. 266 $-25$ $-1750$ |
$-5.655$ 49.924 10.572 23% 102 12% 83.1 SENS ÷ 0.0 m. 0.0 2.044 3.146 043.5 3.0 |
\$3,219 52.235 14.828 塑料 220 62.3 50% - 0.0 m. D.D 1.292 iest 663.6 3.6 |
10476 $-256$ SONS 111 m $250 -$ $3250 - 325$ 258 ÷ $\sim$ on. $\sim$ $+15$ 256 $-276$ $-0.796$ |
ECHILISANA CF CD. Payments |
# Renoted Closed 1, time Coan claims Open / Reported for Aug. Sing closed bill time. Reported @ net Re-cowned claims # Open claims + Elisar Closed / FTE Total Closed / ETE allocated F19 total FTE allocated |
45,658 49.927 93 \$72 22% 122 496 $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ 574 2364 3.346 22.1 14.9 $-2000$ |
53,332 \$2,242 14 000 28% w 52% ă ïй 3400 $-222$ 15.3 |
$-2476$ $-15$ $-29%$ 45a m a. on $-229$ $\rightarrow$ $-256$ $-116$ $-264$ |
gt ent 49.924 \$3,572 22% 112 a. $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ $\sim$ 166 2246 22.1 58.5 |
53.329 62.238 54 909 2816 w 53% 7% эä 1166 2.400 22.3 16.3 |
$-2476$ $\sim$ 17% 456 ĸ ×. on. $45\%$ $\sim$ $-256$ $-2$ $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ |
| Coverage | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage position: | Certain | EML: | |||||
| Broker | |||||||
| Company | Aon Norway AS | Broker Name | Bjørg Bersvendsen | ||||
| Claims handler | |||||||
| Current claims handler Fredrik Messel | Decision maker | Fredrik Messel | |||||
| Previous claims handler None | Decision maker, role Large claim meeting | ||||||
| External loss adjuster | No | Name, external loss adj. | |||||
| Claim info | |||||||
| Claim type | Brann | Claim cause | Brann | ||||
| Damage date | 2020-10-01 | Customer behaviour Green | |||||
| Reported date | 2020-10-01 | Reported to Pharaoh? No | |||||
| Claim size | 20 MNOK | Claim size last updated 20201204 | |||||
| Claim size, documented Yes | Claim size, doc. date 08.10.2020 | ||||||
| 1st time reservation 20,00 | Current Incurred 20,00 | ||||||
| Current reserve | 18,00 | Current RR-assesment | |||||
| Worst case reserve | 25,00 | Best case reserve: 16,00 | |||||
| Brief comments: | Inventory 0,7 mkr | Large loss, 1/3 with minor damages, reserve 14 mkr on building, VAT 3,5 mkr , Loss of rent 1,8 mkr, | |||||
| Follow up structure | |||||||
| Involved parties: | Ease-it Help AS | Right people onboard? 5 | |||||
| Plan for claims handling Yes | Quality on plan: | 3 | |||||
| Activities: | Plan for reinstatement Mthl eval. by Dec.Maker Green | ||||||
| Technical reports, restoration quotes etc. | |||||||
| Report 1 | |||||||
| Company | Ease It Help AS | Appraiser | Lars A Borgen | ||||
| Requested by | Internal | Report type | Quote | ||||
| Order date | 01.10.2020 | Delivered date | 08.10.2020 | ||||
| Level of cost in report 19500000 | Level, choosen Report 19500000 | ||||||
| Cost of Report | Quality of Report Green | ||||||
| Counterpartys report | |||||||
| Company | Appraiser | ||||||
| Level of cost in report | Level, choosen Report | ||||||
| Rolls Royce | |||||||
| Total | 0,0 | Recovery | 0,0 | ||||
| Hardway | 0,0 | Pharaoh | 0,0 | ||||
| Payments | |||||||
| Total | 0,0 | Compensation | 0,0 | ||||
| Consultants | 0,0 | Others | 0,0 | ||||
| UW Learning Loop | |||||||
| UW LL | Yes | Reported to UW No | |||||
| Policy Quality | Green | Microscope | |||||
| Final evaluation of the Claims handling | |||||||
| Data Quality | Time spent | ||||||
| Quality | Innovative | ||||||
| LAGAN | ppen | LIU-LU | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Quarter | YTD | Mthly evaluation (#) | Month | Quarter | YTD | ||||||||||||||||
| A Inc. | A Inc. all | п | $\Delta$ Inc. | A Inc. all. |
A Inc. | A Inc. all | Inc | Paid | Resv. | AResy | # RedF | N/A | Inc. | In c. | Inc. | |||||||
| Property | 5,1 | $\circ$ | 5.1 | 4,0 | 253.6 | 253,6 | 253,6 | |||||||||||||||
| Motor | 0.0 | 0,3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | $\Omega$ | 0.0 | 0.3 | $-0.2$ | ol | 0 | 3.6 | 3,6 | 3.6 | ||||||||
| Liability | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 0.0 | $\Omega$ | 0,0 | 0,0 | $-0,1$ | ٥l | 0,0 | o | 0,0 | $^{\circ}$ | 0,0 | |||||||
| $\leq$ WC | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | $\theta$ | 0,0 | 0,0 | 19.8 | 0,0 | ol | 0. | 0 | 0,0 | $\Omega$ | 0,0 | $\theta$ | 0.0 | ||||
| Group life | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | $\circ$ | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | ol | 0 | Ο | 0,0 | $^{\circ}$ | 0,0 | $^{\circ}$ | 0.0 | ||||
| Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | $\circ$ | 0.0 | 0.0 | - 45 | 6. | 0.0 | ΩÎ | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | $\theta$ | 0.0 | |||||
| TOTAL | 3,7 | 5,4 | 3,7 | 5,4 | $\Omega$ | 3,7 | 5.4 | 132.6 | 257,2 | 257,2 | 257,2 |
| Claims KPIs | PROTECTOR | HE insurance | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very good RR, efficiency appears good but | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | Motor | Preperty | Lishifty | Personal | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Claims KPIs | Oct-20 Targ. | Targ. | Oct-20 | Park, 96 | Dct-20 | Tang. | $O(1-1)$ | Tare. | Oct-19 YID 20 1617 | ||||||||||||||||
| I renoving itains | 1131 | 483 | 9767 | 10,845 | 562 | 612 | 751 | \$197 | 5.468 | 1 225 | 1176 | 58 | 52 | $\overline{K}$ | 491 | 627 | 345 | 404 | 534 | 2.854 | 1,380 | ||||
| dosed claims (1st time) | 1014 | 1.181 | (463) | 10571 | 10,200 | 534 | 720 | 5.792 | 9.221 | 112 | 153 | 124 | 1 1 1 1 | 037 | 45 | śά | 660 | 580 | 303 | 150 | 520 | 3,008 | 3 3 5 2 | ||
| Coon claims | 4 150 | 5 165 | 4 1 5 0 | 5.050 | 1815 | 500 | 2.56 | 1815 | 2.500 | 517 | 517 | 400 | 391 | 550 | 616 | 391 | sse | 1.427 | 1518 | 1.477 | 1,600 | ||||
| Doen / reported (%) | 367% | 5705 | 349% | 42% | 47% | 323% | 573% | \$415 | 35% | 46% | 311% | 501% | 414% | 42% | 343 | 674% | BRON | 242% | 80% | \$25 | 414% | 2845 | sos. | 45% | |
| Prig. time closed 1st time | 106 | 105 | 121 | 46 | 100 | 105 | 109 | 157 | 117 | 218 | 224 | 223 | 98 | 132 | $-0.544$ | ||||||||||
| JeanDesk (%) | 81% | 95% | 96% | 79% | 95% | 99% | 95% | 90% | GRYS | 95% | 99% | \$5% | 925 | 94% | 95% | 95% | 95% | EFS | 94% | \$5% | 66% | 95% | 97% | 65% | 95% |
| FTE's total | 29.1 | 26.7 | 27.5 | 29.3 | 267 | 6.0 | $60 - 60$ | 75 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 47 | 45 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4,5 | 3.1 | Đ | 29 | 3.2 | 27 | 15.4 | 13.6 | 22.4 | 15.5 | 13.6 |
| Dosed / FTE_total | 34.8 | 27.8 | 53.2 | 360.4 | 395.9 | 86.4 | ٢R | 96 | 924.5 | 869 | 28.1 | 23.6 | 27 | 251.4 | 246. | 21.3 | 16.6 | 206. | 244.4 | 19.7 | 16.6 | 41.9 | 194.4 | 221.2 | |
| Bill 16 of payments | 18% | 13 2 | 15% | 19% | 13% | BN | 9% | 12% | 13% | 48% | 22% | 182 | 83% | 12% | 46% | 32% | 11% | on. | 2.975 | 13h | |||||
| SR amount Imilions | 13.71 | 9.80 | 15.75 | 145.70 | 101.48 | 232 | 2.71 | 33.35 | 27.74 | 3.52 | 12.39 | 41.87 | 34,28 | 16.86 | 2.83 | 3.27 | 53.62 | 35.89 | |||||||
| CT - Totality (score 3 & 4) | tom: | 92% | 84% | 91% | 02% | 100% | ops | ARTS | 93% | aps | 89% | \$6% | 92% | 100% | son | 50% | ons | 90% | 100% | ages | \$25 | gers. | 92% | ||
| KAnswered | 25 | 18 | 319 | 15 | 16 | 195 | 56 | 35 | 11 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| Paid lamounti | 75.18 | 104,52 | 780.60 | 28.01 | 31.50 | 277.38 | 19.58 | 25.70 | 190.45 | 2.59 | 4.25 | M.65 | 25.18 | 45.07 276.11 | |||||||||||
| that for a strong who a finite standard | 3.44 | or due | NAMES | Building | A Act 1 | Building | $-10$ | $-0.001$ | A few street | COLLEGE | $-2.04$ | But they | $-$ | plant of a money |
| #nye | #avsluttet | #åpne | RR % | CD | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navn | Jan YTD Jan Target YTD Endr # # + 1Y Jan Target YTD Jan YTD Leders kommentar | ||||||||
| Name 1 | 163 163 118 105 124 | 415 6 10,5 % 9,9 % 10,5 % 76 % 76 % … | |||||||
| Name 2 | 160 160 112 125 112 | 454 31 9,9 % 9,9 % 9,9 % 100 % 100 % … | |||||||
| Name 3 | 169 169 121 125 121 | 458 17 12,4 % 9,9 % 12,4 % 95 % 95 % … | |||||||
| Name 4 | 20 20 94 88 94 | 167 10 9,7 % 9,9 % 9,7 % 95 % 95 % … |
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
• Define strategy, design value chains and implement
Not good enough – new target 2023
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protector Nordics (ex. COI) | 6.4 % | 7.3 % | 6.0 % | 7.3 % | 7.6 % | 7.7 % | 9.6 % |
| Tryg Corporate |
11.1 % | 10.8 % | 11.0 % | 10.2 % | 9.9 % | 10.4 % | 11.4 % |
| If Industrial2 | 16.1 % | 17.3 % | 17.6 % | 17.1 % | 16.0 % | 14.6 % | na |
1 Gross cost incl. claims handling ex. broker commission costs w. normalized LBP
2 Cost ratio excl. annual avg. claims handling cost for If
17
Grenfell Tower and Grey Silverfish
Significant Nordic price increases
18
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Culture eats strategy for breakfast!
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
It's our DNA - We are The Challenger
Values embedded in our every day work
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
• Profitability entering 2021 Turn-around completed
Quality towards market Measured monthly through "Broker Instant Feedback".
Nordic profitability outlook 2021 Combined ratio < 90%
Price increases in 2021 4-5%-points higher than claims inflation
«We are different»
«Olemme erilaisia»
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Cost and quality leadership
«Vi er annerledes»
Profitable growth
Top 3
Values
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
«Vi är annorlunda»
«Vi er anderledes»
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Avg. '13- '20 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protector Nordics (ex. COI) | 7,5 % | 6,4 % | 7,3 % | 6,0 % | 7,3 % | 7,6 % | 7,7 % | 9,6 % | 7,6 % |
| Tryg Corporate |
11,8 % | 11,1 % | 10,8 % | 11,0 % | 10,2 % | 9,9 % | 10,4 % | 11,4 % | 10,8 % |
| If Industrial | 16,1 % | 16,1 % | 17,3 % | 17,6 % | 17.1 % | 16.0 % | 14,6 % | na | 16,3 % |
1 Gross cost incl. claims handling ex. broker commission cost w. normalized bonus scheme.
2021 – Profitability turn around completed
33
| Cost the real way | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% |
| SE | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% |
| DK | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% |
| FI | 13.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 9.4% |
| Nordics | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% |
| Svar totalt | 17 |
|---|---|
| Medelvärde | 0.00 |
| Standardawikelse | 0.00 |
| $\overline{4}$ $\vert \bm{A} \vert$ |
12 (71%) |
| 3 В. |
3 (18%) |
| $2^2$ | 1(6%) |
| $\overline{1}$ 1 |
0(0% |
Initial feedback is very good.
| 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|
| Very low churn on P&C. High churn on Workers Comp. |
≈ 14.5% | Slightly less than 2020 |
| Very large variation on products and segments. Motor much lower. Real estate average +40%. |
≈ 13.0% | Less than 2020 in total. Larger variation. |
| Very high churn driven by Workers Comp. Deliberate due to capital consumption. |
≈ 11.9% | Slightly less than 2020 |
| Very low churn on all products. | ≈ 21.7% | Less than 2020 |
| Low churn. Majority unprofitable. | ≈ 13.7% | 8.7% in January Higher going forward. |
• Average claims inflation (all products) 3-4 % in the Nordics, higher on Motor and Real Estate
| Microscoping | #Contracts to renewal |
#Microscoped | #Deviations found |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 5 102 | 3 925 | 1 895 |
| SE | 648 | 648 | 1 950 |
| DK | 423 | 340 | 184 |
| FI | 75 | 75 | 77 |
| Protector | 6 248 | 4 988 | 4 106 |
38
Cost efficiency is critical to succeed.
Commercial and Affinity is dominated by 3-4 local insurers.
39
WIN-rate
400 factors per UW-case simple overview
• Profitability entering 2021 Turn-around completed
Quality towards market Measured monthly through "Broker Instant Feedback".
Nordic profitability outlook 2021 Combined ratio < 90%
Price increases in 2021 4-5%-points higher than claims inflation
41
• Growth opportunities in the Nordics Maintain discipline, low single digit 2021 Protector
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
The Challenger
This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions
Cost and quality leadership
Profitable growth
Top 3
Credible
Innovative/Open
Bold
Committed
Home Market
Cost advantage key (low deductibles)
46
Risk managed clients Property & Motor largest LOBs
Top 3, disciplined UW, risk selection & cost advantage
UW Excellence
Home Market
Cost advantage key
(low deductibles)
47
Commercial Sector
Large clients (£250k avg.) Risk managed clients Property & Motor largest LOBs
| • In scope UK Market |
GWP £10 bn + | |
|---|---|---|
| • In Focus • Whereof Commercial • Whereof Public |
GWP £2.9bn + GWP £2.0bn + GWP £0.9bn + |
|
| Current Risk Appetite |
High | Medium | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing Retail & Wholesale Public Administration |
Real Estate Specialist Areas |
Financial Institutions / Professional Services |
|
| High | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Medium | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Low | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| Total | 3.9 | 1.8 | 4.3 |
| Protector's current viewpoint |
Core appetite Focus: Property, Casualty, Motor |
High distribution costs Products outside of scope |
Products outside of scope PI – Largest exposure |
| Action | What is it? | Comment | Focus / Project |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cultural onboarding | UK Journey / BU's Overview |
Remote presentation for new starters |
Cultural Lead |
| TIME champion | Living the values nominations |
One Team meeting. Included in Q2 lockdown |
Cultural Lead |
| Deep work | 6hrs per week to do complex work. |
No distractions | Cultural Lead |
| Monthly Wellbeing chats |
Support bubbles/groups |
Utilise existing buddy systems |
RTO project |
| Monthly team meetings |
Business updates and recognition & reward |
Last Friday of the month. End on a social theme |
RTO project |
| One Team break | Daily 15 min slot with a champion owner |
Cross team social chat | RTO project |
| Embedded | |||
| Lockdown initiative |
53
BSI UK 2020 - Totality
Public UW & cost advantage # 3 today • Housing: UW & cost advantage # 3 today
Profitable in 2019 and 2020
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
10.1%
10 925
9 535
9 373
8 975
13.5%
13 492
Overall investment hurdle rate at 20% company RoE
57
| Bottom-up | analysis | FUW | Difficulty & expertise | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Analysis/Underwriting strategy
Focus areas
Return evaluations
| Portfolio data | 31.12.20 | 30.09.20 | 31.12.19 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Size bond & cash eq. (MNOK)1 |
11 603 | 11 788 | 9 757 |
| Avg. ref. rate (NIBOR, STIBOR, etc.) |
0.2% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| Avg. spread/risk premium (bps) |
210 | 205 | 89 |
| Yield | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Duration | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Credit duration2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Avg. rating3 |
A- | A | A+ |
1 Size excludes forward foreign currency contracts
2Avg. includes bank deposits
3Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating
1Avg. based on official rating (>60%) and 'Protector rating' (<40%) & is based on linear rating (as usual). WARF methodology would give a somewhat lower IG-rating
Protector will invest aggressively in rare situations when our assessment is outstanding risk/reward
Spread line is Spb1 Markets' 'Norsk Xover Replika'
1Carnegie Corporate bond fund used as proxy for crossover bond funds
2¨Capital consumption before any diversification effects = after tax loss in stress + capital consumption under SII
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
|---|---|
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
Profitability first. A balance sheet that can handle the unexpected
| Long-term financial objectives (looking 3 years ahead from Feb. '20) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Combined Ratio: | 94 % | |||
| Return on Equity (ROE): | > 20 % | |||
| Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth: | 5 % | |||
| Solvency II Capital Ratio (SCR): | > 150 % |
1 Return on Solvency Capital until 2016 when reflecting changes in accounting principles from Jan. 1st 2016 where Shareholder's Equity includes security provisions
² Volatility adjusted SCR 2019 and YTD 2020
Improvements on it's way
| 2020 net combined ratio at | 94.8 % | |
|---|---|---|
| + | Covid-19 effects | 1 %-points |
| + | Some negative surprises normally occur – "safety margin" |
2-4 %-points |
| 0 | Quality of customer portfolio slightly better, but what about new clients? | 0 %-points |
| - | Earned premium effect lagging from 2020 | 1.2 %-point |
| - | Price increases Nordic higher than price inflation 2021 | 2 %-points |
| - | Cost ratio improvements 2021 vs. 2020 | 1 %-point |
| - | Net run-off losses 2021 vs. 2020, prudent reserve history | 2.2 %-points |
| - | Large loss ratio higher than normalised 7% | 1.8 %-points |
| We expect to deliver a combined ratio for 2021 at | 90-92% |
| • Volume |
In line with budget assumptions |
|---|---|
| • Price increases January 1st |
5.8% increase above claims inflation on BNOK 2 premium |
| • Large losses |
Slightly lower than normalized (volatility expected) |
| • Motor |
Good start |
| • DARAG deal |
Will reduce downside (and upside) on WC Denmark and Norway |
| • Long tail business |
No analysis have been made |
| • Margin of safety |
Slightly increased at the moment |
| • | Interest rate level at 0 for a long time leads to increased UW discipline | + |
|---|---|---|
| • | Reinsurance trouble supports UW discipline | + |
| • | Very disciplined Nordic market will continue | + |
| • | Industry consolidation reduces competition and supports discipline • Trygg-Hansa, Fremtind and some smaller players disappearing |
+ |
| • | Covid-19 supports stability and reduces Churn in Nordic short term | + |
| • | Brexit could reduce risk appetite in UK among some big players | 0 |
| • | Undisciplined UK market are growing more disciplined | 0 |
| • | Covid-19 reduces new sales (not in Public) short term in UK | - |
Profitable growth with a Combined Ratio 90-92%
| Long-term financial objectives | Old | New | Guiding 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Combined Ratio: | 94 % | 90-92% | 90-92% |
| Return on Equity (ROE): | > 20 % | > 20% | |
| Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth: | 5 % | Disciplined | 10% |
| Solvency II Capital Ratio (SCR): | > 150 % | > 150% |
Maximise shareholder return
Main capital allocation alternatives:
1
2
5
| • Determine minimum hurdle rate (RoE>20%) |
|
|---|---|
| • Calculate returns for all internal and external allocation alternatives available, by return and risk |
|
| Capital allocation approach | • Deploy capital in the most attractive alternatives above hurdle. |
| • Release underperforming capital (COI, Price increases, WC Denmark and Norway as example) |
|
Differing values from P&Ls due to exchange rates applied
| 3 | Buy backs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • Historical buy backs – in all 26.2m shares |
|||||||
| Buy backs | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2018 | ||
| # shares | 2 718 645 | 14 762 900 | 3 348 920 | 955 782 | 4 404 622 | ||
| 10.91 | 7.22 | 6.00 | 9.67 | 57.50 |
Differing values from P&Ls due to exchange rates applied
75
| 4 | Dividends | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • Dividends of 14.45 per share paid out pre 2020 |
|||||||||
| Dividends | 2009 | 2010 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2020 |
| Per share | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.00 |
Optimize sources and cost of capital
Main capital allocation alternatives:
1
2
5
| • Determine minimum hurdle rate (RoE>20%) • Calculate returns for all internal and external allocation alternatives available, by return and risk |
|
|---|---|
| Capital allocation approach | • Deploy capital in the most attractive alternatives above hurdle. |
| • Release underperforming capital (COI, Price increases, WC Denmark and Norway as example) |
• Exit COI
78
Illustration of excess capital
1. Holding too much excess capital is a significant headwind for returns.
2. Patience is also key, when there is nothing intelligent to do it is a mistake to try to be intelligent
Flexible Shareholder distribution policy – profitable growth in insurance always priority nr 1
| 180% 150% |
Current level = 203% |
• Capital over 180% in SCR ratio distributed over time |
|---|---|---|
| Normal Range | • Shareholder distribution normally 20%-80% of net profit • Quarterly decisions, all allocation alternatives evaluated • Profitable insurance growth always prioritized |
|
| • Build solvency capital, any shareholder distribution only after a careful consideration |
We are good at it and both management and board members are significant sharehoders
Main capital allocation alternatives:
1
2
5
| • Determine minimum hurdle rate (RoE>20%) |
|
|---|---|
| • Calculate returns for all internal and external allocation alternatives available, by return and risk |
|
| Capital allocation approach | • Deploy capital in the most attractive alternatives above hurdle. |
| • Release underperforming capital (COI, Price increases, WC Denmark and Norway as example) |
|
| 11:40 – 12:00 |
Summary, Succession and Q&A |
|---|---|
| 11:15 – 11:40 |
Long-term target and shareholder distribution |
| 11:00 – | Investments – |
| 11:15 | Core business |
| 10:45 – | UK – |
| 11:00 | A Disciplined Team Journey |
| 10:30 – | Nordics – |
| 10:45 | Back on Track |
| 10:00 – | Protector – |
| 10:30 | We have only just begun |
Summary of today – we have only just begun HTD ROE is 19% - new target is Combined ratio 90-92% and ROE 20%
Involve management in a transparent structured transfer of roles and responsibilities
Henrik Høye CEO in September, Hans Didring nr. 2 – One Team approach is what matters
Like most international companies in the Nordics
Average exchange rates is applied to each year, will not give same result as our books.
94 1 Gross large losses defined as losses or loss adjustments > MNOK 10 2 Two very large claims capped at MNOK 100
Structure & Technology Profitability UW excellence Claims handling Competence development
96
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