Investor Presentation • Jun 15, 2021
Investor Presentation
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June 15, 2021
Anders Opedal President and Chief Executive Officer
built on our strengths and technology leadership
Creating value as an early mover and industry shaper
Net-zero ambition backed by actions
Serious incidents per million work-hours. Twelve months average.
Total incidents per million work-hours. Twelve months average.
Number of leakages with a rate above 0.1 kg/second.
Capitalising on advantaged portfolio
Accelerating development of our strong industrial position
A leader in carbon management and clean hydrogen
ON THE WAY TO NET ZERO
Return on capital employed (RoACE) $2021 - 30$
Based on 60 USD per bbl. Nominal return
Capitalising on our advantaged portfolio
Strong cash engine, maintaining production at current levels to 2030
Free cashflow oil & gas 2021-26
Based on 60 USD per bbl
Resilient portfolio with short payback time, optimising around high value areas
Break-even. projects coming on stream by 2030
Volume weighted average
Average payback time
Based on 60 USD per bbl Volume weighted, from production start including IOR
Setting a new standard for carbon efficient operations
Scope 1 CO2 emissions, Equinor operated, 100% basis
BILLION
Total capital gains from farmdowns
Building on competitive advantages and established position
Bringing ambitions forward, based on early access at scale
Equinor share
Enhancing returns through farmdowns and financing
Equivalent to 6-10% nominal returns. Excluding effects from farmdowns and project financing
$12 - 16%$
Nominal equity return
US and UK development projects with secured offtake contracts
NCS basin master within $CO2$ transport and storage
$CO2$ transport and storage capacity by 2035
Equinor share
Becoming a major European supplier of hydrogen
Clean hydrogen projects by 2035
Developing Northern Lights - Europe's first third party source $CO2$ storage
$CO2$ storage capacity phase 1 and 2
100% basis
Net carbon intensity of energy provided Scope 1, 2 and 3
1. Upstream intensity, scope 1 CO2 emissions, Equinor operated, 100% basis
8 | Capital Markets Day 2021
Reflecting cashflow strength and resilience
50% of gross capex to renewables and low carbon solutions by 2030
600 million USD programme for 2021
Based on 60 USD per bbl, before capital distribution
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "acceleratina", "ambition", "believe", "consistent", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "focus", "auidance", "in line with", "leading", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "target", "will" and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include all statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding Equinor's plans, intentions, aims, ambitions and expectations with respect to Equinor's climate ambitions and energy transition, including but not limited to: its net zero and net carbon intensity ambitions, carbon efficiency, carbon-neutral global operations, internal carbon price on investment decisions, R&D and venture capital allocation, break-even considerations and targets, investments, financial metrics for investment decisions, profitable growth, net debt ratio, non-GAAP measures, performance indicators, IRR (Internal Rate of Return), future competitiveness, future levels of, and expected value creation from, oil and gas production, scale and composition of the oil and gas portfolio, cost and UPC (Unit of Production Cost), CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), research and development capital allocation, development of CCUS and hydrogen businesses and use of offset mechanisms and natural sinks, start-up of projects through 2030; and ROACE in 2021-2030; plans to achieve improvements with a cash flow effect of more than USD 4 billion from 2020 to 2025; expectations to achieve a production capacity of 12 to 16 GW (equity) from renewable projects in 2030; reaching ambitions of >50% of Equinor gross capex going to renewables and low carbon solutions; aims and ambitions with respect to renewable energy and low carbon solutions, including ambitions for enhancing returns through farm-downs and financing, and Equinor Co2 transport and storage capacity (equity) by 2035, installed capacity, number of hydrogen projects by 2035 and CO2 storage capacity phase 1 and 2 for Northern Lights; market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; organic capital expenditures through 2024; cashflow and ambitions on free cashflow, average breakeven and payback time on the portfolio coming on stream by 2030; expected dividend distributions and; share buy-back programme, including expectations regarding the timing and amount to be purchased and the redemption of the Norwegian State's shares.
These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including societal shifts in consumer demand and technological advancements, levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing in particular in light of recent significant oil price volatility triggered, among other things, by the changing dynamic among OPEC+ members and the uncertainty regarding demand created by the Covid-19 pandemic; the impact of Covid-19 or other pandemic outbreaks; health, safety and environmental risks; price and availability of alternative fuels; the political and economic policies of Norway and other jurisdictions where we have assets; general economic conditions; an inability to meet strategic objectives or exploit growth or investment opportunities; adverse changes in tax regimes; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations, the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems; the difficulties involving transportation infrastructure; the actions of competitors; the actions of counterparties; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder); political and social stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; global political events and actions, including war, political hostilities and terrorism; economic sanctions, security breaches; changes or uncertainty in or non-compliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new projects, fields or wells on
stream; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems, natural disasters, adverse weather conditions; climate change and other changes to business conditions; operator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; counterparty defaults; an inability to attract and retain skilled personnel; relevant governmental approvals; the political and economic policies of Norway and other oilproducing countries; EU developments; labour relations and industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in Equinor's publications.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that future results will meet these expectations. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Equinor's business, is contained in Equinor's Annual Report and Form 20-F 2020, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (and section Risk review - Risk factors thereof), which is available at Equinor's website www.equinor.com.
You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Equinor does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and, except as required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update any of these statements after the date of this presentation, whether to make them either conform to actual results or changes in our expectations or otherwise.
The achievement of Equinor's net carbon intensity ambition depends, in part, on broader societal shifts in consumer demands and technological advancements, each of which are beyond Equinor's control. Should society's demands and technological innovation not shift in parallel with Equinor's pursuit of significant greenhouse gas emission reductions, Equinor's ability to meet its climate ambitions will be impaired. Equinor is including an estimate of emissions from the use of sold products (GHG protocol category 11) in the calculation of its net zero ambition and net carbon intensity ambition as a means to more accurately evaluate the emission lifecycle of what we produce to respond to the energy transition and potential business opportunities arising from shifting consumer demands. Including these emissions in the calculations should in no way be construed as an acceptance by Equinor of responsibility for the emissions caused by such use.
Prices used in the presentation material are given in real 2020 value, unless otherwise stated. Forward looking cash-flows are in nominal terms. Break-evens and NPVs are in real 2021 terms and are based on life cycle cash-flows from Final Investment Decision dates. We also confirm that we have obtained approval from Independent Project Analysis (IPA), International Energy Agency (IEA), BloombergNEF and Wood Mackenzie to publish data referred to on slides in this presentation.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as "resource" and "resources" that the SEC's rules prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to closely consider the disclosures in our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-15200. This form is available on our website or by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or logging on to www.sec.gov.
Svein Skeie
Chief Financial Officer
Growing significantly in renewables and low carbon solutions
$CFFO1$ and capex2 Billion USD, average per year
Equity renewables installed capacity GW 20 15 10 5 $\Omega$ 2021 2024 2030 2026 2028
Based on 60 USD per bbl.
Unit production cost 2021-26
Real terms 2021
Gas supply cost to Europe
Projects coming on stream before 2030
Based on 60 USD per bbl Volume weighted average Real terms
Break-even
Volume weighted average
Average payback time
Based on 60 USD per bbl Volume weighted, from production start. Including IOR
Project lifetime intensity. Scope 1 CO2 emissions, Equinor operated, 100% basis.
| Sanctioned | Non-sanctioned 2 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2H2O21-2O22 | $2023 - 2024$ | $2022 - 2025$ | $2026 - 2030$ | |
| Troll Phase 3 Ærfugl Phase 2 Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 Peregrino Phase 2 Njord Vito |
Johan Castberg Askeladd West Bacalhau Phase 1 North Komsolmoskoye Stage 1 Breidablikk (awaiting ministry approval) |
Asterix Halten Øst Ormen Lange Phase 3 Karabagh North Platte Oseberg GCU Snøhvit FP 2 (OC) Angara Oil |
Krafla Garantiana $BM-C-33$ Rosebank Bacalhau Phase 2 Wisting Bay du Nord Peon Fram Area |
Enhancing returns through farmdowns and financing Real internal rate of return
Illustrative effects
| Sanctioned | Non-sanctioned | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2H2O21-2O22 | $2023 - 2025$ | Contract awarded | Planning |
| Hywind Tampen Guanizul 2A |
Dogger Bank A Dogger Bank B |
Dogger Bank C Empire Wind I Empire Wind II Beacon Wind I MFW Bałtyk II & III |
Beacon Wind II MFW Bałtyk I Sheringham Shoal and Dudgeon Extension Firefly Donghae |
$4 - 8%$
Real base project return
Equivalent to 6-10% nominal returns. Excluding effects from farmdowns and project financing
12-16%
Nominal equity return
US and UK development projects with secured offtake contracts
$\sim$ 23 BILLION
Gross capex renewables 2021-26
$\sim$ 12 BILLION
Net capex renewables 2021-26
5 | Capital Markets Day 2021
Cashflow impact before tax 2020-25 Billion USD
$>50%$
Above forecasted improvements in 2020
And is expected to deliver...
Increase in production revenues 2020-25
Generating strong cashflow to fund our transition and competitive shareholder distributions
• Resilient portfolio provides solid returns also in low-price environments, with significant upside
600 million USD programme for 20212
20-35% including IFRS 16 2. Subject to conditions outlined in the CEO CMD 2021 presentation 3. Excluding IFRS 16
50% of gross capex to renewables and low carbon solutions by 2030
| Outlook | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex 1 | 2021-22 9-10 BILLION | ||
| 2023-24 | $~12$ BILLION | ||
| Production growth 2 | 2020-21 | $~2$ PERCENT | |
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "acceleratina", "ambition", "believe", "consistent", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "focus", "auidance", "in line with", "leading", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "target", "will" and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include all statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding Equinor's plans, intentions, aims, ambitions and expectations with respect to Equinor's climate ambitions and energy transition, including but not limited to: its net zero and net carbon intensity ambitions, carbon efficiency, carbon-neutral global operations, internal carbon price on investment decisions, R&D and venture capital allocation, break-even considerations and targets, investments, financial metrics for investment decisions, profitable growth, net debt ratio, non-GAAP measures, performance indicators, IRR (Internal Rate of Return), future competitiveness, future levels of, and expected value creation from, oil and gas production, scale and composition of the oil and gas portfolio, cost and UPC (Unit of Production Cost), CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), research and development capital allocation, development of CCUS and hydrogen businesses and use of offset mechanisms and natural sinks, start-up of projects through 2030; and ROACE in 2021-2030; plans to achieve improvements with a cash flow effect of more than USD 4 billion from 2020 to 2025; expectations to achieve a production capacity of 12 to 16 GW (equity) from renewable projects in 2030; reaching ambitions of >50% of Equinor gross capex going to renewables and low carbon solutions; aims and ambitions with respect to renewable energy and low carbon solutions, including ambitions for enhancing returns through farm-downs and financing, and Equinor Co2 transport and storage capacity (equity) by 2035, installed capacity, number of hydrogen projects by 2035 and CO2 storage capacity phase 1 and 2 for Northern Lights; market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; organic capital expenditures through 2024; cashflow and ambitions on free cashflow, average breakeven and payback time on the portfolio coming on stream by 2030; expected dividend distributions and; share buy-back programme, including expectations regarding the timing and amount to be purchased and the redemption of the Norwegian State's shares.
These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including societal shifts in consumer demand and technological advancements, levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing in particular in light of recent significant oil price volatility triggered, among other things, by the changing dynamic among OPEC+ members and the uncertainty regarding demand created by the Covid-19 pandemic; the impact of Covid-19 or other pandemic outbreaks; health, safety and environmental risks; price and availability of alternative fuels; the political and economic policies of Norway and other jurisdictions where we have assets; general economic conditions; an inability to meet strategic objectives or exploit growth or investment opportunities; adverse changes in tax regimes; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations, the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems; the difficulties involving transportation infrastructure; the actions of competitors; the actions of counterparties; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder); political and social stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; global political events and actions, including war, political hostilities and terrorism; economic sanctions, security breaches; changes or uncertainty in or non-compliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new projects, fields or wells on
stream; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems, natural disasters, adverse weather conditions; climate change and other changes to business conditions; operator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; counterparty defaults; an inability to attract and retain skilled personnel; relevant governmental approvals; the political and economic policies of Norway and other oilproducing countries; EU developments; labour relations and industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in Equinor's publications.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that future results will meet these expectations. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Equinor's business, is contained in Equinor's Annual Report and Form 20-F 2020, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (and section Risk review - Risk factors thereof), which is available at Equinor's website www.equinor.com.
You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Equinor does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and, except as required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update any of these statements after the date of this presentation, whether to make them either conform to actual results or changes in our expectations or otherwise.
The achievement of Equinor's net carbon intensity ambition depends, in part, on broader societal shifts in consumer demands and technological advancements, each of which are beyond Equinor's control. Should society's demands and technological innovation not shift in parallel with Equinor's pursuit of significant greenhouse gas emission reductions, Equinor's ability to meet its climate ambitions will be impaired. Equinor is including an estimate of emissions from the use of sold products (GHG protocol category 11) in the calculation of its net zero ambition and net carbon intensity ambition as a means to more accurately evaluate the emission lifecycle of what we produce to respond to the energy transition and potential business opportunities arising from shifting consumer demands. Including these emissions in the calculations should in no way be construed as an acceptance by Equinor of responsibility for the emissions caused by such use.
Prices used in the presentation material are given in real 2020 value, unless otherwise stated. Forward looking cash-flows are in nominal terms. Break-evens and NPVs are in real 2021 terms and are based on life cycle cash-flows from Final Investment Decision dates. We also confirm that we have obtained approval from Independent Project Analysis (IPA), International Energy Agency (IEA), BloombergNEF and Wood Mackenzie to publish data referred to on slides in this presentation.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as "resource" and "resources" that the SEC's rules prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to closely consider the disclosures in our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-15200. This form is available on our website or by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or logging on to www.sec.gov.
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