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Protector Forsikring

Investor Presentation Oct 27, 2021

3719_rns_2021-10-27_e59f6aee-4d6f-418f-9139-90f87f459b55.pdf

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Q3 2021 Interim results

Investor Presentation

Oslo, 28 October 2021

Henrik Høye Chief Executive Officer

Disclaimer

This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Protector Forsikring ASA (the "Company"). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligationsto update or correct any of the information set out herein.

These materials may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and is not prepared or made in connection with, an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, it does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, its affiliates or any of their respective advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "US Securities Act"), and are offered and sold only outside the United States in accordance with an exemption from registration provided by Regulation S of the US Securities Act.

This presentation should not form the basis of any investment decision. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offering documents published in relation to such an offering. For further information about the Company, reference is made public disclosures made by the Company, such as filings made with the Oslo Stock Exchange, periodic reports and other materials available on the Company's web pages.

Vision

The Challenger

Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative/Open

Bold

Result highlight Q3 & YTD 2021

Q3: Combined ratio at 82.9% | Investment return at 0.0% | EPS at NOK 1.6

Other highlights:

  • Change in profitability guiding; CR 2021 88%
  • Continued profitability measures
    • Price increases at 13.2% (Q3) and 9.3% (YTD)
  • Special dividend of NOK 1.67 per share

This presentation contains alternative performance measures (APMs). APMs are described here: https://protectorforsikring.no/en/investor/documents/spreadsheets/

* Post special dividend

Claims update Q3 claims ratio at 73.9%, 9.1%-points down from last year

  • Net run off gains at 4.9 % in Q3 21 (-3.5% in Q3 20)
  • Large losses1 at 9.4% (12.0%), 2.4%-points higher than normalized
  • Aggregated COVID-19 effects in quarter at 0%
  • Change made to guided profitability for full-year 2021
    • Net combined ratio for 2021 88%
Business unit Q3 '21
Gross
Q3 '21
Net
Q3 '20
Gross
Q3 '20
Net
Norway 73 % 74 % 75 % 72 %
Sweden 59 % 61 % 78 % 80 %
Denmark 82 % 74 % 116 % 117 %
UK 84 % 88 % 65 % 74 %
Finland 85 % 86 % 66 % 68 %
Protector 73.4 % 73.9 % 80.6 % 83.0 %
Business unit YTD '21 YTD '21 YTD '20 YTD '20
Gross Net Gross Net
Norway 71 % 80 % 83 % 83 %
Sweden 60 % 63 % 83 % 83 %
Denmark 101 % 81 % 106 % 109 %
UK 81 % 86 % 62 % 71 %
Finland 81 % 82 % 62 % 64 %
Protector 75.1 % 76.2 % 82.2 % 84.8 %

Large losses and run-off Gross large losses1 of MNOK 139 (9.4%), net run off gains at 1.7%

  • Gross large losses of MNOK 139 or 9.4% in Q3 21

    • Cloud burst claim event in Gävle, Sweden (26 claims in total)
    • One very large claim in UK (>50 MNOK net effect)
  • Net run off gains at 4.9 % in Q3 21 (loss of 3.5% in Q3 20)

    • Driven by run off gains in Sweden at 3.7%

• Some volatility in reserves & large losses must be expected

6

Q3 18

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q2 19

Q3 19

Q4 19

Q1 20

Q2 20

Q4 20

Q3 20

Q1 21

Q2 21

Q3 21

Q2 18

Q3 17

1.2%

Q4 17

Q1 18

Volume update GWP up 27.5% in quarter, 25.8% in local currencies

  • Q3: a small volume-quarter • GWP growth at 27.5% (25.8% in LCY) • Renewal rate at 99.4 % • Realized price increases at 13.2% • Low and stabilized churn
    • Underlying UK growth MNOK 50 lower; change of inception date for large account

• YTD:

  • GWP growth at 7.9% (9.7% in LCY)
  • Realized price increases at 9.3%
  • Current price increases and underwriting account for increased inflation due to Covid
  • In line with guiding for 2021; 10% in LCY
Business unit Q3 '21 Q3 '20 Growth
Norway 174 162 12
Sweden 248 207 41
Denmark 61 58 3
UK 368 238 130
Finland 6 7 -1
Protector 856 671 184
COI 44 64 -20
Protector incl. COI 900 735 165
Business unit YTD '21 YTD '20 Growth
Norway 1.293 1.249 44
Sweden 1.545 1.358 187
Denmark 827 913 -86
UK 1.327 1.051 276
Finland 173 217 -43
Protector 5.165 4.787 377
COI 151 191 -40
Protector incl. COI 5.316 4.978 337

Country-by-country key metrics

Q3 combined ratio at 82.9% | Quarterly country volatility must be expected

PROTECTOR
Insurance

Q3 2021

Norway Sweden Denmark UK Finland Protector
Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020
Gross premium written 174 162 248 207 61 58 368 238 6 7 856 671
Gross premium earned 354 345 450 400 227 246 390 298 54 51 1.475 1.340
Net premium earned 316 314 394 349 195 216 303 224 48 45 1.257 1.147
Gross claims ratio 73.1 % 75.0 % 58.9 % 77.8 % 81.5 % 115.5 % 84.0 % 64.6 % 85.0 % 65.9 % 73.4 % 80.6 %
Gross cost ratio 8.0 % 9.7 % 11.1 % 11.3 % 7.1 % 5.3 % 13.5 % 12.8 % 4.7 % 5.2 % 10.1 % 9.9 %
Gross combined ratio 81.1 % 84.8 % 70.0 % 89.1 % 88.6 % 120.8 % 97.5 % 77.5 % 89.8 % 71.1 % 83.5 % 90.5 %
Net claims ratio 74.1 % 71.8 % 61.1 % 80.2 % 74.4 % 116.6 % 88.2 % 73.9 % 85.7 % 67.8 % 73.9 % 83.0 %
Net cost ratio 6.3 % 8.0 % 8.4 % 11.8 % 5.2 % 8.5 % 15.6 % 14.7 % 3.9 % 3.5 % 8.9 % 10.4 %
Net combined ratio 80.4 % 79.7 % 69.5 % 91.9 % 79.6 % 125.1 % 103.8 % 88.6 % 89.6 % 71.3 % 82.9 % 93.4 %

YTD 2021

Norway Sweden Denmark UK Finland Protector
YTD 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021 YTD 2020
Gross premium written 1.293 1.249 1.545 1.358 827 913 1.327 1.051 173 217 5.165 4.787
Gross premium earned 1.047 1.085 1.307 1.194 650 731 1.076 805 198 160 4.278 3.975
Net premium earned 932 973 1.133 1.045 562 640 847 625 177 143 3.652 3.425
Gross claims ratio 71.2 % 83.4 % 59.8 % 82.7 % 101.0 % 106.2 % 80.7 % 62.2 % 81.3 % 62.2 % 75.1 % 82.2 %
Gross cost ratio 7.3 % 8.3 % 12.1 % 11.9 % 8.1 % 6.1 % 14.7 % 12.8 % 5.3 % 5.1 % 10.7 % 9.8 %
Gross combined ratio 78.4 % 91.7 % 71.9 % 94.6 % 109.1 % 112.4 % 95.4 % 75.0 % 86.6 % 67.3 % 85.8 % 92.0 %
Net claims ratio 79.9 % 82.8 % 63.1 % 82.9 % 80.6 % 109.0 % 85.5 % 71.3 % 82.3 % 63.9 % 76.2 % 84.8 %
Net cost ratio 6.8 % 6.6 % 10.0 % 12.0 % 5.9 % 8.5 % 15.8 % 13.6 % 4.2 % 2.2 % 9.6 % 9.7 %
Net combined ratio 86.7 % 89.4 % 73.1 % 94.9 % 86.6 % 117.5 % 101.4 % 84.9 % 86.5 % 66.1 % 85.9 % 94.5 %

Status vs. 2021 guiding Renewed guiding on profitability, premium growth as expected

Guiding 2021 Results H1 Results Q3 Results YTD New guiding
Net Combined Ratio: 90-92% 87.4% 82.9% 85.9% 88%
Return on Equity (ROE): >20% 49.1%* 14.8%* 37.7%* Unchanged
Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth: 10% (LCY) 7.0% (LCY) 25.8% (LCY) 9.7% (LCY) Unchanged
Solvency II Capital Ratio (SCR): > 150% 235% 230% 230% Unchanged

Vision

The Challenger

Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative/Open

Bold

Investments

Investment is core

Investment performance and statistics

0.0% return in Q3 | Bond portfolio yield at 2.0%, before cost of risk

  • Q3 return on investment portfolio at 0.0%, or MNOK -7
    • Equity portfolio, ex. put options, returning -4.1%, or MNOK -88
    • Bond portfolio returning 0.7%, or MNOK 92
    • Return of put options MNOK -11
  • YTD return on investment portfolio at 5.1%, or MNOK 717
    • Equity portfolio, ex. put options, returning 28.5%, or MNOK 502
    • Bond portfolio returning 2.1%, or MNOK 259
    • Return of put options MNOK -44
  • Equity share at 14.6%, up from 14.0% in Q2 '21
  • Bond portfolio's average rating at BBB+
    • HY portfolio totalling BNOK 4.0 vs BNOK 4.3 in Q2 '21
  • Strong, albeit more balanced Nordic HY bond market in quarter
    • DNB Markets Nordic HY index return +1.7%

-4.1% 0.0%
Equities1
Bonds
Investment portfolio data 30.09.21 30.09.20 30.06.21
Size bond & cash eq. (MNOK)3 12 369 11 788 12 139
Avg. ref. rate (NIBOR, STIBOR, etc.) 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Bonds Avg. spread/risk premium (bps) 164 205 175
Yield 2.0% 2.1% 1.8%
Duration 0.4 0.3 0.4
Credit duration4 1.3 1.6 1.3
Avg. rating5 BBB+ A BBB+
Portfolio
size
2
118
1 333 2
050
Equities Share of total 14.6% 9.9% 14.0%
Estimated
intrinsic value discount
30% 42% 27%
No. of companies 22 17 21

1 Equity portfolio return excluding put options

2Total portfolio return including put options

3 Size excludes currency swap contracts

4Avg. includes bank deposits

5Avg. linear rating based on official rating (>55%) and 'Protector rating' (<45%)

1 Equity portfolio return excluding put options 2 Total portfolio return including put options

Q3 YTD

Vision

The Challenger

Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative/Open

Bold

Profit and loss Q3 (&YTD) Profit of MNOK 125 (965) – EPS at NOK 1.6 (11.8)

NOKm Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q1-Q3 2021 Q1-Q3 2020 FY 2020
Gross premiums written 856 671 5 165 4 787 5 516
Earned premiums, net of reinsurance 1 257 1 147 3 652 3 425 4 614
Claims incurred, net of reinsurance (930) (952) (2 783) (2 905) (3 901)
Sales cost (89) (86) (267) (238) (331)
Administration cost (61) (46) (189) (150) (221)
Commission from reinsurer 37 14 104 55 82
Other insurance related
income/expenses (4) 5 (23) 6 5
Technical result 211 81 493 193 247
Other income/costs (11) (14) (41) (48) (67)
Net financial income (0) 265 658 452 865
Profit before tax 200 331 1 110 597 1 045
Tax (68) (44) (209) (124) (160)
Discontinued operations (3) 60 67 63 94
Net comprehensive income (4) (3) (3) 3 2
Profit for the period 125 344 965 539 982
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance 73.9 % 83.0 % 76.2 % 84.8 % 84.6 %
Expense ratio, net of reinsurance 8.9 % 10.4 % 9.6 % 9.7 % 10.2 %
Combined ratio, net of reinsurance 82.9 % 93.4 % 85.9 % 94.5 % 94.8 %
Gross claims ratio 73.4 % 80.6 % 75.1 % 82.2 % 82.2 %
Gross expense ratio 10.1 % 9.9 % 10.7 % 9.8 % 10.3 %
Gross combined ratio 83.5 % 90.5 % 85.8 % 92.0 % 92.5 %
Retention rate 85.2 % 85.6 % 85.4 % 86.1 % 85.8 %
Earnings per share 1.6 4.2 11.8 (4.8) 12.0

Balance Sheet SCR-ratio at 230% post Q3 special dividend

In millions 30.09.2021 30.09.2020 31.12.2020
Financial assets 13 291.1 11 757.0 11 988.6
Derivatives 64 99.3 47.9
Bank deposits 101.4 65.5 263.2
Other assets 4 420.7 2 679.3 2 554.9
Discontinued
operations
1 516.3 2 132.2 1 895.7
Total assets 19 393.5 16 733.4 16 750.3
Total equity 3 467.1 2 574.6 3 030.5
Subordinated loan capital 1 244.2 1 243.3 1 473.0
Total reserves 10 494.9 10 052.7 9 185.1
Derivatives 70.1 47.6 61.4
Other liabilities 3 246.2 1 554.6 1 888.7
Discontinued operations 870.9 1 260.6 1 111.6
Total equity and liabilities 19 393.5 16 733.4 16 750.3

• Strong technical result, weak investment result:

• Change in SCR-ratio driven by proposed dividend for Q3

SCR-ratio composition

Solvency II SCR ratio at 230%

Composition of SCR:

  • Net insurance risk 62%
  • Net market risk 28%
  • Other risks 10%

16

  • Accumulated dividend subtracted from eligible capital
  • Guarantee provision subtracted from own funds

SCR composition

Eligible SII capital

Dividend policy A new special dividend of NOK 1.67 per share – Flexible shareholder distribution policy

Solvency II ratio

180% Current level
= 230%

Capital over 180% in SCR ratio distributed over time
Normal Range
Shareholder distribution normally 20%-80% of net profit

Quarterly decisions, all allocation alternatives evaluated

Profitable insurance growth always prioritized
150%
Build solvency capital, any shareholder distribution only
after a careful consideration
  • Special dividend of MNOK 137.5 (NOK 1.67 per share); to be paid out around 10 November (ex. dividend 3 November)
  • Quarterly assessment continued going forward

Vision

The Challenger

Business Idea

This will happen through unique relationships, best in class decisionmaking and cost effective solutions

Main targets

Cost and quality leadership

Profitable growth

Top 3

Values

Credible

Innovative/Open

Bold

Result summary Q3 & YTD 2021

Q3: Combined ratio at 82.9% | Investment return at 0.0% | EPS at NOK 1.6

Q3 YTD

Net combined ratio
82.9% 85.9%

Gross written premium
MNOK 856
(+27%)
MNOK 5 165
(+8%)

Investment return
MNOK -7
(0.0%)
MNOK 717
(5.1%)

Profit for the period
MNOK 125 MNOK 965

Earnings per share
NOK 1.6 NOK 11.8

Dividend
NOK 1.67
pr. share
NOK 8.01
pr. share

Solvency Capital Ratio
230% 230%

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