Extended fourth quarter 2021 presentation Q4
10 February 2022
Agenda
Continued profitability and delivery on dividend policy Kjerstin R. Braathen
Financial ambitions and 4Q results Ida Lerner
Solid foundation for continued profitable growth Ingjerd Blekeli Spiten
Savings and pensions Håkon Hansen
Continued profitability and delivery on dividend policy
– Results 2021
– Norwegian macro
– DNB's strategy
Solid performance with low impairment provisions
- Strong performance across all product areas with all-time high levels for commissions and fees
- Low impairment provisions reflecting improved underlying credit quality and positive macroeconomic conditions
- Solid recovery in profitability, well underway towards the goal of at least 12 per cent return on equity
High level of activity across customer segments
Personal customers Highlights of the year
- Continued profitable currency adjusted growth in both lending and deposits with 2.7 and 7.1 per cent, respectively
- Other operating income up 13.7 per cent, driven by asset management services and sale of insurance products
Corporate customers Highlights of the year
- Continued profitable currency adjusted growth in both lending and deposits with 4.5 and 16.7 per cent, respectively
- All-time high income from Markets up 23.2 per cent, driven by strong performance across industries, geographies and products
Pre-tax operating profit (NOK million) Pre-tax operating profit (NOK million)
9 660 8 633 8 766
2019 2020 2021 Pre-tax operating profit (before impairment provisions)
Delivering on dividend policy – reflecting a robust capital position
- Continued to deliver on long-term dividend policy payout ratio of more than 50 per cent
- Proposed cash dividend per share of NOK 9.75 for 2021
Financial ambitions adjusted for new capital expectation
7
Strong outlook for the Norwegian economy going forward
- High activity level in the Norwegian economy with partial reopening after COVID-19 restrictions at the end of 2021
- Unemployment back at pre-pandemic level, indicating a positive outlook for the economy
- Two rate hikes already implemented, creating room to manoeuvre in the event of further lock-downs
1) Forecast updated in December 2021.
Source: DNB Markets, NAV (the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration), Norges Bank (the Norwegian central bank).
Mainland investment activity expected to increase
- Increase in consumer price index mainly driven by energy and utility prices
- Mainland investment activity expected to increase, shifting away from petroleum investments
- Norwegian sovereign wealth fund continues to grow, with lower petroleum dependency
Ample room to manoeuvre if necessary Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, NOK billion
1) Core inflation, excluding energy and utility prices. Source: DNB Markets, Norges Bank, Norwegian Ministry of Finance.
Sustainability is an integrated part of our business and our customer interaction
- 1) Of which 31 per cent and 44 per cent were sustainability labelled loans in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
- 2) Of which 83 per cent and 99 per cent were sustainability labelled bonds in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
- 3) Percentage of the deals where DNB participated.
and investment activities and own operations Recent highlights in the transition
Increase AUM in sustainability themed NOK 100 BN by 2025 and reduce the emissions intensity of DNB Livforsikring's portfolio by 55% by 2030
- Market leader in NOK-denominated sustainable bonds in 2021 with a 14 per cent market share
- 16 per cent of bond transaction volume had a sustainable label, up from 8 per cent in 20203)
- Issued first green senior bond for internal funding, 85 per cent taxonomy-aligned, validated by Sustainalytics
- Further strengthened sustainability governance through a Group Sustainability Committee – defining, coordinating and prioritising sustainable activities
10
Leveraging our position in a digital environment
- Strong digital ecosystem among top-ranked financial apps in Norway
- 30 per cent increase in corporates using the corporate app Puls
- 62 per cent growth in active users of the Spare savings app
DNB has some of the most popular financial apps in Norway
No. 1 savings platform in Norway
~30 per cent of Norwegians use DNBs mobile banking app1)
75 per cent of Norwegian population uses Vipps
Engage and scale Utilising strong digital position to boost sales
- Continued strong position for traditional banks in Norway
- Vipps, MobilePay and Pivo merging to form one of Europe's largest mobile wallets
-
98 per cent of savings schemes sold digitally, 38 per cent through the Spare app
Bank-run payment options preferred in Norway2) Per cent
1) Norwegians aged 16 and above, Source: Statistics Norway.
2) Public survey 2021 Ipsos for DNB – "Which of the following payment methods have you used for online purchases in the last six months"
DNB at the forefront in the race for competence and talent
Develop the competence of our people Attract new talent
- Leading and managing diversity to add value for stakeholders ranked no. 1 among European financial institutions on D&I1)
- Developing a culture for on-the-job training and continuous learning to increase internal mobility and reduce churn
- More than 50 per cent of vacant positions are recruited internally
Scandinavian benchmark 77.5 points DNB 86 points
Willingness to recommend own employer2)
- Employer branding strategy to attract tech-related engineers
- More than 50 per cent of our graduate hires in the past five years have had a technology background
- Consistently perceived as one of the most attractive employers in Norway across various educational backgrounds
DNB's score on Universum surveys ranking the most attractive employers
1) Financial Times Diversity Leaders 2022, D&I = Diversity & Inclusion.
2) Average rating (0-100 scale) on "willingness to recommend own employer externally", Rambøll client database 2021.
Financial ambitions
- KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATOR: Cost/income ratio < 40 per cent
– OVERRIDING TARGET: Return on equity > 12 per cent – CAPITAL LEVEL: CET1 capital ratio > supervisory authorities' long-term expectation – DIVIDEND POLICY: Payout ratio > 50 per cent
On track to deliver on ambition by year-end 2023
14
Delivering on ambitions through volume growth, increased income and cost control
- Annual loan growth of 3–4 per cent and increased NOK interest rate will lay the foundation for net interest income (NII)
- Strong performance and high activity support the ambition of a through-the-cycle growth rate of 4–5 per cent in net commissions and fees
- Remain committed to meeting our cost/income ratio target of below 40 per cent
Strong Norwegian macroeconomic situation and well-diversified portfolio
- Healthy asset quality 98.9 per cent of exposure in stages 1 and 2
- Reduced exposure towards cyclical industries and high-quality personal customer portfolio constitute >50 per cent
- Marginal loan-to-value distribution 98.6 per cent of mortgage portfolio below 75 per cent
Solid CET1 capital and leverage ratio – well positioned to deliver on dividend policy
Leverage ratio vs. Nordic peers at year-end 2021 Per cent 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.9 DNB Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 2)
Key points moving forward
- Update from Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP):
- Pillar 2 Requirement 1.9 per cent
- Pillar 2 Guidance 1.5 per cent (up 50 bps)
17
- Norwegian implementation of CRR II/ CRD V3) and impact from CRR III/CRD VI output floor expected to be limited
- Decision on Sbanken appeal still pending
- Dividend policy stands
- Expected tax rate for 2022 : 23 per cent
CET1 capital ratio
FSA's current expectation
FSA's expectation incl. pre-pandemic CCyB requirements 1)
- 1) CCyB: Counter-cyclical capital buffer.
- 2) Current regulatory requirement.
- 3) CRR = Capital Requirements Regulation. CRD = Capital Requirements Directives.
Ida Lerner - CFO
Results DNB Group
Fourth quarter 2021
Continued strong performance and solid asset quality
Return on equity (ROE) of 10.3 per cent in 4Q21 Solid performance across customer segments Return on equity
Net interest income up 5.3 per cent from the last quarter Driven by volume growth and repricing
High activity – net commissions and fees up 22.2 per cent from 4Q20 All-time high result mainly from investment banking and asset management
Low impairment provisions in the quarter Reflecting the robust portfolio and improved macroeconomic outlook
Strong earnings per share (EPS) – basis for delivering on dividend policy EPS of NOK 3.79 for the quarter, up 15.6 per cent from 4Q20 EPS of NOK 15.74 for the year, up 30.8 per cent
Solid growth within loans and deposits
- For the year (currency-adjusted): loans and deposits in customer segments up 3.6 per cent and 12.7 per cent, respectively
- For the quarter (currency-adjusted):
- loans in customer segments up 1.1 per cent healthy growth in Corporate customers and stable volumes in Personal customers
- deposits in customer segments up 1.5 per cent solid growth in both segments
Increased net interest margin
- Net interest margin reflected the repricing of loans and deposits with effect from mid-November
- Spreads on loans and deposits affected by increased money market rates and lag effects from notice period for customer repricing
1) Total net interest income relative to average loans and deposits in the customer segments.
Net interest income driven by volume growth and repricing effects
- Norges Bank increased the key policy rate from 0 to 0.25 per cent in September and to 0.50 per cent in December
- DNB implemented an increase in customer interest rates with effect from mid-November
- A second repricing with effect from February 2022 has been announced by DNB
Commissions and fees – strong deliveries across product areas
Operating expenses affected by high activity
- Increase in fixed salaries as a result of consolidation of Uni Micro and investments in technology and compliance competence
- Growth in variable salaries driven by high activity reflected in all-time high commissions and fees
Operating expenses from 3Q21 to 4Q21 NOK million
24
Low impairment provisions reflecting robust portfolio
- 98.9 per cent of the portfolio in stages 1 and 2
- Reversals in stages 1 and 2 reflected improved underlying credit quality and macroeconomic outlook
Impairment of financial instruments by industry segment NOK million |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q21 |
3Q21 |
4Q20 |
|
|
|
|
| Total |
(275) |
200 |
(1 250) |
|
|
|
|
| Of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Personal customers - Stages 1 and 2 - Stage 3 |
(2) (62) |
25 (51) |
175 (36) |
|
|
|
|
Corporate customers*) - Stages 1 and 2 - Stage 3 |
177 (388) |
289 (62) |
389 (1 777) |
|
|
|
|
*) Of which oil, gas and offshore: - Stages 1 and 2 - Stage 3 |
41 92 |
82 8 |
125 (1 465) |
|
|
|
|
Maximum exposure (on- and off-balance sheet items), net of accumulated impairment provisions
Solid capital position and strong earnings per share
Solid foundation for continued profitable growth
- Market leader well positioned for continued growth
- Leveraging our digital platforms to increase sales
Maintaining our solid position as market leader
28
Profitable growth in mortgages and deposits
Profitable growth in Norwegian mortgage portfolio NOK billion
- Consistent organic growth over time
- High flexibility with floating interest rates for >90 per cent of loans
- Robust portfolio with low risk and low losses
Strong growth in deposit portfolio NOK billion
- 7.1 per cent growth in deposits last 12 months
- Increasing profitability
- Deposits are the foundation for long-term savings
The preferred digital banking platform in Norway
Successful merger – positioned for growth in insurance
Ambitions communicated in 4Q20 presentation Achievements on target
Achievements in 2021 All customers transferred to Fremtind system Improved pricing models 41 per cent increase in commissions 20 per cent increase in sales volume
Ambitions for 2022
- Increase digital sales to personal and corporate customers
- Profitable growth for major product categories
Leveraging the Spare savings platform to increase sales
The Spare savings platform – an important channel for customer recruitment and sales
share of mutual fund net flow in personal customer segment
share of savings schemes sold
+62%
increase in active users
No.1 savings platform
32
Savings and pensions
- Profitable growth and growth drivers
No. 1 choice for Norwegian savers and investors
1) AUM = assets under management.
Source market shares: Fund and Asset Management Association, Norway.
Regulatory changes driving growth in savings and pensions – fuelling demand for sustainable investments
- 2022 Pension will be calculated from the first krone
- 2021 SFDR1) and own pension account scheme
- 2017 Share savings and personal pensions account
- 2011 Pension reform
- 2006 Mandatory occupational pension
- 2001 Structural change from defined-benefit to defined-contribution pensions
Growth driven by regulatory changes Systematic approach to build products for the future2) DNB ESG Lab
1) SFDR = Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation.
2) All mutual funds produced or distributed by DNB fulfil DNB's standard for responsible investments. Additional criteria to obtain higher ESG classifications.
Current position driving future growth in defined-contribution pensions
- Growth in defined-contribution pensions with recurring new savings schemes expected to increase AUM up to NOK 250 billion over next five years
- Proportion of shares in employees' pension savings up from 44 per cent in 2012 to 60 per cent in 2021
Retail segment driving income growth for DNB Asset Management
Retail customers' share of net commissions and fees has increased from 35 to 55 per cent over the last decade
Net commissions and fees in DNB Asset Management NOK million
Well positioned for future growth
- Strong growth in saving schemes increasing recurring volume
- Traditionally strong footprint within wealthy higher age groups now successfully attracting new customers in younger population groups
- Scalable platform with leading in-house production and distribution supported by human expertise
Appendix
Income statement
| NOK million |
4Q21 |
3Q21 |
4Q20 |
Change from 3Q21 |
Change from 4Q20 |
| Net interest income |
10 285 |
9 766 |
9 479 |
519 |
806 |
| Other operating income |
4 348 |
4 577 |
3 847 |
(229) |
501 |
| Total income |
14 633 |
14 343 |
13 326 |
291 |
1 308 |
| Operating expenses |
(6 427) |
(5 752) |
(6 509) |
(675) |
82 |
| Pre-tax operating profit before impairment |
8 206 |
8 591 |
6 816 |
(385) |
1 390 |
| Impairment of loans and guarantees and gains on assets |
(251) |
200 |
(1 265) |
(451) |
1 013 |
| Pre-tax operating profit |
7 955 |
8 791 |
5 552 |
(836) |
2 403 |
| Tax expense |
(2 025) |
(1 934) |
(570) |
(91) |
(1 456) |
| Profit from operations held for sale, after taxes |
225 |
26 |
292 |
199 |
(67) |
| Profit for the period |
6 155 |
6 883 |
5 274 |
(728) |
881 |
| Portion attributable to shareholders |
5 875 |
6 657 |
5 083 |
(783) |
791 |
Other operating income
| NOK million |
4Q21 |
3Q21 |
4Q20 |
Change from 3Q21 |
Change from 4Q20 |
| Net commissions and fees |
3 049 |
2 448 |
2 494 |
601 |
555 |
| Customer revenues in DNB Markets |
653 |
558 |
559 |
95 |
94 |
| Trading revenues in DNB Markets |
2 |
81 |
32 |
(79) |
(30) |
| Hedging of defined-benefit pension scheme |
76 |
9 |
101 |
67 |
(25) |
| Credit spreads on bonds |
(75) |
86 |
92 |
(161) |
(167) |
| Credit spreads on fixed-rate loans |
(67) |
47 |
84 |
(114) |
(151) |
| CVA/DVA/FVA |
1 |
(9) |
238 |
10 |
(237) |
| Other mark-to-market adjustments |
(110) |
392 |
738 |
(502) |
(848) |
| Basis swaps |
100 |
147 |
(152) |
(47) |
252 |
| Exchange rate effects on additional Tier 1 capital |
125 |
274 |
(1 508) |
(149) |
1 633 |
| Net gains on financial instruments at fair value |
704 |
1 585 |
184 |
(881) |
520 |
| Net financial and risk result, life insurance |
203 |
147 |
474 |
56 |
(271) |
| Profit from investments accounted for by the equity method |
(6) |
185 |
264 |
(191) |
(270) |
| Other |
397 |
212 |
431 |
186 |
(33) |
| Net other operating income, total |
4 348 |
4 577 |
3 847 |
(229) |
501 |
Solid CET1 capital ratio
- Profit for the period offset by payout ratio of more than 50 per cent
- Underlying volume growth offset by change in classification (from standard to IRB1) method)
- Other includes exchange rate effects, counterparty risk, exposure in Luminor and reduced deferred tax assets (a result of annual assessment)
Development in CET1 capital ratio from 30 September 2021 to 31 December 2021
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The statements contained in this presentation may include forward-looking statements, such as statements of future expectations. These statements are based on the management's current views and assumptions and involve both known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
Although DNB believes that the expectations implied in any such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be correct.
Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those set out or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (i) general economic conditions, (ii) performance of financial markets, including market volatility and liquidity, (iii) the extent of credit defaults, (iv) interest rate levels, (v) currency exchange rates, (vi) changes in the competitive climate, (vii) changes in laws and regulations, (viii) changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, or supranational entities.
DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
This presentation contains alternative performance measures, or non-IFRS financial measures. Definitions and calculations are presented on ir.dnb.no.
Extended fourth quarter 2021 presentation
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