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Selvaag Bolig ASA

Investor Presentation Aug 17, 2022

3741_rns_2022-08-17_38f689db-8ca8-4ea1-aa3a-5f4b976ca35e.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Oslo, 17 August 2022

Sverre Molvik, CEO Christopher Brunvoll, CFO

Q2 2022

2

Agenda

Highlights

Operational update

Financial update

Market

Outlook and summary

Highlights

  • · Solid Q2 results
  • · Satisfactory sales in Q2 despite challenging market conditions
  • · H1 2022 operating revenues at NOK 1 322m up 37% from H1 2021
  • · Dividend of NOK 2.00 per share* for H1'22

* Pay-out on 31 August, 2022

Key financials Q2 and H1 2022

13.6

EBITDA** margin (NGAAP)

Per cent

Adjusted EBITDA* margin

Per cent

* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs. ** EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies.

Agenda

Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary

Business model minimizes risk

  • Construction cost development
    • Increase due to geopolitical unrest and shortages after COVID-19 pandemic
    • New projects in certain areas postponed if required margins are not satisfactory
    • Cost peak seems to have been reached with recent cost reductions
  • Risk mitigation
    • Binding contracts at fixed rates before sale start
    • Fixed construction cost secured for all units under construction
    • Minimum presale of 60% before construction start

92% of 2022 completions sold by Q2 75% of units under construction sold by Q2

Sales value and units sold

Note: Sales value is adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.

Units sold are sales contracts entered into with customers pursuant to the Norwegian Housing Construction Act. In accordance with the IFRS, they are recognised as income on delivery.

Rolling sales value and units sold

Note: Sales value is adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.

*Total columns show Selvaag Bolig's gross sales. **Columns excluding dotted areas show Selvaag Bolig's net sales.

Sales value 12-month rolling Units sold 12-month rolling

Units sold are sales contracts entered into with customers pursuant to the Norwegian Housing Construction Act. In accordance with the IFRS, they are recognised as income on delivery.

Construction starts and completions

Construction starts and completions per quarter

Units

Note: Number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.

Units under construction and completions

Sales value units under construction Expected completions per quarter

  • · 75% of units under construction sold by Q2 2022
  • · 76% of construction volume in Greater Oslo Area* in Q2 2022
  • · Expected completions for the full year 2022: 586
  • · 92% of 2022 completions sold by Q2 2022

Note: Sales value and number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures. * Includes: Oslo, Lørenskog, Follo, Tønsberg, Asker.

Agenda

Highlights Operational update Financial update Market

Outlook and summary

Income statement highlights Q2 2022 (IFRS)

1 554 356 966 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22

* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs.

Q2 2022 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV

Operating revenues (IFRS)

* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

** EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs. The difference compared to reported EBITDA is due to interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in JVs.

H1 2022 proforma figures including proportionate share of JV

Operating revenues (IFRS)

  • · 294 units delivered (256)
    • 70 units from share of JVs (56)
  • · Revenues NOK 1 781m (1 281)
    • Other revenues NOK 36m (36)
  • · Adjusted EBITDA** NOK 335m (241)
  • · EBITDA* NOK 289m (208)
  • · EPS in H1 NOK 2.30 (1.42)

NOK million

  • EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
  • ** EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs. The difference compared to reported EBITDA is due to interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in JVs.
  • *** Excluding other gains of NOK 1 029m

Income statement highlights Q2 2022 (NGAAP)

Revenues and EBITDA margin (NGAAP)* 12 month-rolling revenues (NGAAP)*

* Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting (NGAAP). Note: EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies.

NOK million NOK million

Cash flow development Q2 2022

NOK million

Note: Items of less than NOK 55 million are excluded from the cash flow overview.

  • · Cash flow from operations positive at NOK 297m driven by units delivered and solid earnings
  • · Cash flow from investing activities positive at NOK 45m mainly due to repayment of sales credit
  • · Cash flow from financing activities negative at NOK 327m due to dividend payments of NOK 280m

Dividends paid to equity holders of Selvaag Bolig ASA Cash and cash equivalents at 30 June 2022

Balance sheet highlights Q2 2022

17

Balance sheet composition

Assets Equity and Liabilities

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 Cash Non-current assets Current assets · Book value of equity NOK 25.5 per share - Equity ratio 40.0% · Changes from Q1 2022: - Inventories decreased by NOK 235m - Trade and Other receivables increased by NOK 54m - Cash increased by NOK 15m · Prepayments from customers represent NOK 203m of other current non-interestbearing liabilities NOK million

Inventories (property) Q2 2022

Q1 22 vs Q2 22 Inventory value development

Land (undeveloped) Work in progress Finished projects

  • · Land value down NOK 159m
    • Due to constructions starts
  • · Work in progress down NOK 45m
    • Mainly due to completions and deliveries
  • · Finished goods down NOK 31m
    • Due to deliveries of previously completed units

NOK million

Debt structure

Loan facility Drawn
at
30.6.22
(NOKm)
Interest
rate
margin*
1 Construction loan facilities from
a range of Nordic credit institutions
1 683 1.65% -
2.40%
2 Debt to Urban Property** 616 3.75%***
3 Land loan facilities from a range of
Nordic credit institutions
240 1.50% -
2.95%
4 NOK 150 million revolving credit
facility from DNB maturing in 2023
0 2.50% -
3.00%
5 NOK 150 million working capital
facility from DNB with annual renewal
0 2.10%
6 NOK 300 million infrastructure facility
maturing in 2024
0 2.50%

Total Q2 2022 net interest-bearing debt NOK 1 829 million

Total Q1 2022 net interest-bearing debt NOK 1 867 million

Interest-bearing debt at 30.6.22

Land loan Debt to Urban Propery Construction loan

NOK million

* Margin added to 3m NIBOR.

** Repurchase agreements portfolio B and seller credits. *** + 2.00% fee at property repurchase.

Earnings and dividend per share since IPO

Accumulated dividend and earnings per share

**Including EPS of NOK 11.01 and DPS of NOK 22 from UP transaction.

Half year dividend and earnings per share

*Excluding earnings and dividend from UP transaction.

Return on equity (IFRS)

Net income* Return on equity**

12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%)

* Net income attributable to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA.

** Based on equity at the start of the period (attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA).

Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m

Agenda

Highlights Operational update Financial update Market

Outlook and summary

Estimated completions in Oslo well below forecasted need

Sources: Historic data: Statistics Norway (SSB), Forecasted housing completions: SA – Hawii Analyse, Forecasted housing need next 5 years: Prognosesenteret. Note: Number of persons per household in Oslo: 1.90.

Note: Housing need calculated on parameters such as number of persons per household, lag on housing development, housing demolition. Note: Completions exclusive of student- and senior housing.

* Estimates based on actual sales, future sales starts, and historical data.

** Uncertainty due to project lead-time.

Estimated completions in Akershus*

Sources: Historic data: Statistics Norway (SSB), Forecasted housing completions: Hawii Analyse, Forecasted housing need next 5 years: Prognosesenteret. Note: Number of persons per household in Oslo: 1.90.

Note: Housing need calculated on parameters such as number of persons per household, lag on housing development, housing demolition. Note: Completions exclusive of student- and senior housing.

* Akershus county = Viken county ex. Buskerud and Østfold.

** Estimates based on actual sales, future sales starts, and historical data.

24 *** Uncertainty due to project lead-time.

Newbuild market update

Source: SA – Hawii analyse. * Including withdrawls

Newbuild market update

Source: SA – Hawii analyse. * Including withdrawls

Regional Newbuild availability on 31 July, 2020-22

Source: Hawii analyse, Statistics Norway.

* Akershus county = Viken ex. counties Buskerud and Østfold.

** Population at YE 2021.

Regional Second-hand inventory on 4 August, 2019-22

Source: Eiendomsverdi, Statistics Norway.

28 *** Population at YE 2021.

  • * Akershus county = Viken ex. counties Buskerud and Østfold.
  • ** Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg.

Trondheim

Stavanger area**

Regional price* development 1.1-31.7, 2012-22

Source: Eiendom Norge.

* Nominal price change.

** Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg.

Bergen

Agenda

Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary

Outlook

  • · Housing shortage in Oslo area provides favorable conditions for new housing
  • · Expecting reduction in construction cost going forward
  • · The lending restriction of 5x income determines loan capacity before the ability to repay*
  • · Solid pipeline. Selvaag Bolig has approximately 440 units for sale and plans for additional sales starts in H2
  • · ESG positioning
    • · GHG protocols in all projects
    • · Defining emission targets
    • · Reporting with reference to GRI
    • · Adapting to EU taxonomy and Transparency Act

*At current interest rate level for an average income borrower.

  • · Solid Q2 results
  • · Satisfactory sales in Q2 despite challenging market conditions
  • · H1 2022 operating revenues at NOK 1 322m up 37% from H1 2021
  • · Dividend of NOK 2.00 per share* for H1'22

Summary

* Pay-out on August 31, 2021

Thank you for your attention – follow us online!

Next event: 3 rd quarter 2022 10 November 2022

Appendix

Return on equity (IFRS)

610

20% 17% 15%

19% 20%

Net income* Return on equity**

12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%)

* Net income attributable to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA.

** Based on equity at the start of the period (attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA).

12-month rolling net income (NOKm) ROE (%)

Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m Q1 2020 Net income including Other gains of NOK 1 029m

Earnings and dividend per share since IPO

Accumulated dividend and earnings per share

**Including EPS of NOK 11.01 and DPS of NOK 22 from UP transaction.

Half year dividend and earnings per share

*Excluding earnings and dividend from UP transaction.

Revised dividend policy:

Selvaag Bolig's ambition is to pay high and stable dividends to its owners.

The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 60 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the company's liquidity forecasts and capital adequacy.

Old dividend policy:

Selvaag Bolig's ambition is to pay high and stable dividends to its owners.

The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 40 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the company's liquidity forecasts and capital adequacy.

The company will maintain an equity ratio of minimum 30 per cent.

Dividend policy

Share performance since IPO in June 2012

Source: Oslo Børs.

Share information

· Trading

* All numbers in brackets from previous quarter.

Largest shareholders at 30.6, 2022

* Further information regarding shareholders is presented at: http://sboasa.no/en.

Shareholder # of shares % share
SELVAAG AS 50 180 087 53.5%
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB * 6 812 642 7.3%
PARETO INVEST NORGE AS 4 311 772 4.6%
VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG GAMBA 3 117 700 3.3%
The Northern Trust Comp, London Br * 2 186 000 2.3%
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London * 1 989 006 2.1%
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB * 1 000 000 1.1%
MUSTAD INDUSTRIER AS 950 707 1.0%
SANDEN EQUITY AS 900 000 1.0%
The Northern Trust Comp, London Br * 840 200 0.9%
State Street Bank and Trust Comp * 838 613 0.9%
BANAN II AS 750 000 0.8%
Landkreditt Utbytte 700 000 0.7%
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. * 684 200 0.7%
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. * 515 656 0.5%
SELVAAG BOLIG ASA 511 933 0.5%
HOLTA INVEST AS 370 000 0.4%
The Bank of New York Mellon SA/NV * 354 994 0.4%
State Street Bank and Trust Comp * 326 352 0.3%
Citibank, N.A. * 325 020 0.3%
Total 20 largest shareholders 77 664 882 82.8%
Other shareholders 16 100 806 17.2%
Total number of shares 93 765 688 100.0%
  • · Nearly 60 000 homes over the last 70 years
  • · Housing for all
  • · Focus on fast growing urban regions
  • · Large projects with more than 150 units

Addressing the long term housing need

Stockholm 790 units

Greater-Oslo

8 045 units

Positioned to realize large projects in Norway's four largest growing urban areas

  • Acquire the right mix of zoned and unzoned land in suitable locations
  • Land acquisitions in defined core areas
  • High degree of site utilisation and strategic land development
  • Substantial land bank to accommodate targets/growth in core areas
  • Good infrastructure and public transport
  • Joint ventures (JVs)

Land bank exposure

Trondheim 278 units

Geographical spread

Stockholm 790 units

Greater-Oslo 8 045 units

Stavanger 689 units

Bergen 603 units

Land-bank strategy

Note: The numbers represent the size of the land portfolio at 30 June 2022. All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures. The total portfolio is ~10 400 units. Of these ~5 250 are options and obligations to buy.

42

Change in needs calls for new concepts

43

Selvaag Pluss

  • Lifestyle concept
  • Attractive common areas
  • Professional hosting services
  • Service offerings and good neighbourliness, make every day living easier
  • Guestrooms for family and friends
  • Work-out- and fitness centre

Selvaag City

  • Urban lifestyle concept with compact apartments
  • Attractive common areas
  • Professional hosting services
    -
  • Guestrooms for family and friends
  • Work-out- and fitness centre

• Service offerings and good neighbourliness, make every day living easier

Ongoing and upcoming large projects in Greater Oslo

Fornebu | Greater Oslo

  • · ~ 2 000 units total (50/50 JV)
  • · ~ 500 Pluss units
  • · Expected sales start: 2024

Bjerke | Oslo

  • · ~ 1 200 units total
  • · ~ 300 Pluss units
  • · Expected sales start: 2024

Lørenskog stasjonsby | Greater Oslo

  • · ~ 2 000 units total
  • · ~ 200 Pluss units
  • · ~ 800 units remaining for sale

Skårerbyen | Greater Oslo

  • · ~ 1 100 units total
  • · ~ 250 Pluss units
  • · ~ 500 units remaining for sale

Ongoing and upcoming large regional projects

Fredrikstad | Greater Oslo

  • · ~ 1 500 units
  • · ~ 400 Pluss units
  • · Expected sales start: 2022/23

RingvePluss | Trondheim

  • · ~ 600 units total
  • · ~ 400 Pluss units
  • · ~ 500 units remaining for sale

Elveparken | Stavangerarea

  • · ~ 600 units total
  • · ~ 250 Pluss units
  • · Expected sales start: 2023

Sandsli | Bergen

  • · ~ 600 units total
  • · ~ 250 Pluss units
  • · ~ 450 units remaining for sale

Land bank in Oslo and Greater Oslo at 30.6.22

*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures

Lørenskog 1 534 units
Lørenskog Stasjonsby 613 units
Skårer Bolig 483 units
LSV 300 units
Pallplassen 138 units
Lillestrøm
1 641
units
Bjerke 1 025 units
Bjerke 1 025 units
Oslo South 315 units
Gjertsrud Stensrud 315 units
Follo/Østfold 1 435 units
Langhus 49 units
Solberg 32 units
Ski 88 units
Grenseveien 340 units
Fredrikstad 726 units
Vestby 200 units

Land bank in Stavanger area at 30.6.22

*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures

Land bank in Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm at 30.6.22

*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.

Cooperation with Urban Property from 1.1.2021

  • How it works:

    • Urban Property has a right of first refusal (ROFR) to purchase all new land Selvaag Bolig wants to develop
    • Urban Property acquires land on Selvaag Bolig recommendations
    • Selvaag Bolig has an option to repurchase the land in stages
    • Fee structure:
      • 2.5% transaction fee
      • Annual option premium of NIBOR +375bp
  • Eliminates need for equity when purchasing land, as SBO pay 50% of purchasing price at construction start and 50%

  • Benefits for Selvaag Bolig:

    • at project completion
    • Increases return on equity
    • Allows for a higher dividend payout ratio
    • land plots

    • (break fee)
  • More efficient and predictable funding of existing and new

  • Increases competitiveness when making land purchases - Down-side risk for SBO limited to 48 months option premium

Selvaag Bolig sold most of its land bank to Urban Property in January 2020, entering a long-term and strategic partnership. Urban Property is a financially sound, well capitalized and predictable partner.

Reduced capital binding in practice, in effect no equity needed in Selvaag Bolig for land

Residential development value chain: cooperation between Selvaag Bolig and Urban Property

Example project calculations before and after

Example apply a land ownership period in Urban Property of 3-4 years, and a finance cost of 4% on all capital employed in the project.

PROJECT CALCULATIONS
PROJECT CALCULATIONS
1
2
BEFORE URBAN PROPERTY AFTER URBAN PROPERTY
Figures for illustration purposes only MNOK % MNOK %
Sales revenue 348.5 100.0% 348.5 100.0%
Construction cost 195.8 56.2% 195.8 56.2%
Land cost 69.7 20.0% 85.2 24.4%
Other costs 24.5 7.0% 24.5 7.0%
Project cost 290.0 83.2% 305.5 87.7%
Net finance (excluding Urban Property) 16.8 4.8% 5.3 1.5%
TOTAL REVENUE 348.5 100.0% 348.5 100.0%
TOTAL COST 306.8 88.0% 310.9 89.2%
PROFIT 41.7 12.0 % 37.7 10.8%
Internal rate of return (IRR) 12.2% 28.0%

1

2

In total marginal lower project margins, but significantly increased IRR and RoE

* Assuming flat market development.

Project margin development

* Includes project revenues only.

** Project margins are exclusive of overhead costs. Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting (NGAAP).

NOK million

Substantial portfolio for development

5 150

Total land bank Options and obligations to acquire Land bank in balance sheet

Total land bank portfolio at 30.6.2022

Units

Valuation of remaining land bank*

(60 Grader Næringsmegling)

NOK million

* SBO land bank not included in the UP transaction

Value of units sold - gross and net

Sales value of units sold

NOK million

Number of units sold - gross and net

Number of units sold

306
271
180
443 147 394 139
173
125 201 120
276

Units

Income statement IFRS

(figures in NOK million) Q2 2022 Q2 2021 1H 2022 1H 2021 2021
Total operating revenues 965.9 394.2 1 322.2 962.0 3 402.7
Project expenses (804.1) (304.8) (1 057.2) (706.0) (2 617.4)
Other operating expenses (57.2) (49.9) (103.5) (104.6) (236.4)
Associated companies and joint ventures 101.2 39.4 96.2 45.4 109.7
EBITDA 205.8 78.9 257.6 196.8 658.6
Depreciation and amortisation (2.5) (2.6) (4.8) (5.1) (10.3)
Other gains (loss) - - - - -
EBIT 203.4 76.3 252.8 191.6 648.3
Net financial expenses 0.5 (2.3) (1.7) (6.3) (3.0)
Profit/(loss) before taxes 203.9 74.0 251.2 185.3 645.3
Income taxes (27.1) (17.6) (36.8) (52.2) (140.4)
Net income 176.8 56.4 214.4 133.1 504.9

Balance sheet

(figures in NOK million) Q2 2022 Q1 2022 2021
Intangible assets 383.4 383.4 383.4
Property, plant and equipment 8.1 8.2 7.4
Investments in associated companies and joint ventures 349.2 239.4 354.7
Other non-current assets 300.5 340.5 302.3
Total non-current assets 1 041.2 971.5 1 047.7
Inventories (property) 4 122.2 4 357.1 4 072.5
- Land 848.9 1 007.5 1 033.8
- Land held for sale
- Work in progress 3 153.8 3 199.3 2 872.2
- Finished goods 119.5 150.2 166.4
Other current receivables 115.3 60.9 134.3
Cash and cash equivalents 709.5 694.4 527.4
Assets held for sale - - -
Total current assets 4 947.0 5 112.4 4 734.2
TOTAL ASSETS 5 988.1 6 083.9 5 782.0
Equity attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA* 2 387.2 2 486.2 2 461.1
Non-controlling interests 7.8 7.8 7.8
Total equity 2 395.0 2 494.0 2 468.8
Non-current interest-bearing liabilities 1 239.8 1 189.9 777.2
Other non-current non interest-bearing liabilities 376.6 357.1 341.0
Total non-current liabilities 1 616.4 1 547.0 1 118.2
Current interest-bearing liabilities 1 299.0 1 372.1 1 370.5
Other current non interest-bearing liabilities 677.7 670.8 824.4
Total current liabilities 1 976.8 2 042.9 2 194.9
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 5 988.1 6 083.9 5 782.0

Cash flow statement

(figures in NOK million) 1H 2022 1H 2021 2021
Net cash flow from operating activities (11.0) (503.0) 392.6
Net cash flow from investment activities 131.2 35.7 167.1
Net cash flow from financing activities 61.9 162.1 (917.6)
Net change in cash and cash equivalents 182.1 (305.2) (357.9)
Cash and cash equivalents at start of period 527.4 885.3 885.3
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 709.5 580.2 527.4

Operational highlights – key operating figures

Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22
Units sold 173 125 276 201 120
Construction starts 142 148 456 113 190
Units completed 120 318 334 7
4
210
Units delivered 132 314 324 7
7
217
Units under construction 1 371 1 201 1 323 1 361 1 342
Proportion of sold units under construction 82 % 76 % 67 % 73 % 75 %
Completed unsold units 1
5
1
6
2
5
1
9
1
3
Sales value of units under construction (NOK million) 6 749 6 200 6 736 7 034 6 807

EBITDA Q2 2022

Note: EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies.

Property
(figures in NOK million) development Other Total
Operating revenues 767.8 16.6 784.3
Project expenses (620.9) (0.2) (621.1)
Other operating expenses (10.7) (48.8) (59.5)
EBITDA (percentage of completion) 136.2 (32.5) 103.7
Note: Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting.
IFRS EBITDA for the quarter, per segment
Operating revenues 949.3 16.6 965.9
Project expenses (803.8) (0.2) (804.1)
Other operating expenses (10.7) (46.5) (57.2)
Share of income (losses) from associated companies
and joint ventures 101.2 - 101.2
EBITDA 236.0 (30.2) 205.8
Units in production 1 342 N/A N/A
Units delivered 217 N/A N/A

Norwegian housing market

· Low risk for housebuilders

  • · Advance sales: banks require that 50-70% of homes are sold before construction starts
  • · Binding offers: offer to purchase is a binding sales contract, and requires a minimum 10% cash deposit
  • · High level of home ownership
    • · 85% (one of the world's highest)
  • · Economic benefits for home owners
    • · 23% of mortgage loan interest payments are tax deductible
    • · Transfer stamp duty for new houses is lower than for second-hand homes
  • · Strong population growth
    • · Norway's urban areas are among the fastest growing in Europe
    • · Good market for new homes

Source: Selvaag Bolig and Eurostat.

Total household debt and homeownership

Household debt in % of net disposable income (2021) Homeownership rate (2020)

Source: OECD, Statista.

Shift in demographics trigger new housing needs

Source: Statistics Norway, Samfunnsøkonomisk Analyse.

* Estimated annual growth for the 2020-25 period.

** Number of persons per household in Norway.

Share of small & single households Share of newbuild and population growth by region

Price development Norway and selected regions (2005-22)

Price development (rebased 1.1.2005)

Source: Eiendomsverdi.

* Stavanger area includes: Randaberg, Sandnes, Sola, Stavanger.

Population growth in Oslo and Akershus remains high

Share of total population in Oslo and Akershus Share of total population growth in Oslo and Akershus

Source: Statistics Norway.

Homeownership rate among immigrants in Norway (per year living in Norway)

Immigration increases demand over time

of years in Norway

Source: Statistics Norway.

Norway – relatively limited volatility

Population growth 2021 - 2030e and 2040e Interest rates* 2018 - 2023e

Source: Bloomberg, UN.

* Central bank rates.

Norway – moving back to normal in through 2022

Wages & disposable income 2019 – 2025e Prices & interest rates 2019 – 2025e

Source: Monetary Policy Report 2|22, Central Bank of Norway.

Mainland demand Household consumption Housing investment

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