Investor Presentation • Nov 10, 2022
Investor Presentation
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2
Operational update
Financial update
Market
Outlook and summary
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs. ** EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies.
Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Note: Sales value is adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.
Units sold are sales contracts entered into with customers pursuant to the Norwegian Housing Construction Act. In accordance with the IFRS, they are recognised as income on delivery.
Note: Sales value is adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.
*Total columns show Selvaag Bolig's gross sales. **Columns excluding dotted areas show Selvaag Bolig's net sales.
Sales value 12-month rolling Units sold 12-month rolling
Units sold are sales contracts entered into with customers pursuant to the Norwegian Housing Construction Act. In accordance with the IFRS, they are recognised as income on delivery.
Note: Number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.
· 75% of construction volume in Greater Oslo Area* in Q3 2022
· Expected completions for the full year 2022: 586
Note: Sales value and number of units are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures. * Includes: Oslo, Lørenskog, Follo, Tønsberg, Asker.
Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs.
Operating revenues (IFRS)
* EBITDA is profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
** EBITDA adjusted is excluding financial expenses included in project costs. The difference compared to reported EBITDA is due to interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in JVs.
* Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting (NGAAP). Note: EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies.
NOK million
Note: Items of less than NOK 55 million are excluded from the cash flow overview.
775
Dividends paid to equity holders of Selvaag Bolig ASA
Cash and cash equivalents at 30 September 2022
NOK million
| Loan facility | Drawn at 30.9.22 (NOKm) |
Interest rate margin* |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Construction loan facilities from a range of Nordic credit institutions |
1 743 | 1.65% - 2.40% |
| 2 | Debt to Urban Property** | 587 | 3.75%*** |
| 3 | Land loan facilities from a range of Nordic credit institutions |
237 | 1.50% - 2.95% |
| 4 | NOK 150 million revolving credit facility from DNB maturing in 2023 |
0 | 2.50% - 3.00% |
| 5 | NOK 150 million working capital facility from DNB with annual renewal |
0 | 2.10% |
| 6 | NOK 300 million infrastructure facility maturing in 2024 |
0 | 2.50% |
Total Q2 2022 net interest-bearing debt NOK 1 829 million
NOK million
* Margin added to 3m NIBOR.
** Repurchase agreements portfolio B and seller credits. *** + 2.00% fee at property repurchase.
530 505
466
586
512
* Net income attributable to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA.
** Based on equity at the start of the period (attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA).
Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m
Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
Sources: Historic data: Statistics Norway (SSB), Forecasted housing completions: SA – Hawii Analyse, Forecasted housing need next 5 years: Prognosesenteret. Note: Number of persons per household in Oslo: 1.90.
Note: Housing need calculated on parameters such as number of persons per household, lag on housing development, housing demolition. Note: Completions exclusive of student- and senior housing.
* Estimates based on actual sales, future sales starts, and historical data.
** Uncertainty due to project lead-time.
Sources: Historic data: Statistics Norway (SSB), Forecasted housing completions: Hawii Analyse, Forecasted housing need next 5 years: Prognosesenteret. Note: Number of persons per household in Oslo: 1.90.
Note: Housing need calculated on parameters such as number of persons per household, lag on housing development, housing demolition. Note: Completions exclusive of student- and senior housing.
* Akershus county = Viken county ex. Buskerud and Østfold.
** Estimates based on actual sales, future sales starts, and historical data.
22 *** Uncertainty due to project lead-time.
Source: SA – Hawii analyse. Incudes projects with 2 units or more * Including withdrawls
Source: SA – Hawii analyse. Incudes projects with 2 units or more * Including withdrawals
Source: Hawii analyse, Statistics Norway.
Incudes projects with 2 units or more
* Akershus county = Viken ex. counties Buskerud and Østfold.
26
Source: Eiendomsverdi, Statistics Norway.
Incudes projects with 2 units or more
* Akershus county = Viken ex. counties Buskerud and Østfold.
** Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg.
*** Population at YE 2021.
Source: Eiendom Norge.
* Nominal price change.
** Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg.
Bjerke | Oslo
Lørenskog stasjonsby | Greater Oslo
Skårerbyen | Greater Oslo
Ballerud | Greater Oslo
Lørenvangen| Oslo
Lilleaker | Oslo
Highlights Operational update Financial update Market Outlook and summary
*At current interest rate level for an average income borrower.
Next event: 4 th quarter 2022 14 February 2023
Sources: Historic data: Statistics Norway (SSB), Forecasted housing completions: Hawii Analyse, Forecasted housing need next 5 years: Prognosesenteret. Note: Number of persons per household in Oslo: 1.90.
Note: Housing need calculated on parameters such as number of persons per household, lag on housing development, housing demolition. Note: Completions exclusive of student- and senior housing.
* Akershus county = Viken county ex. Buskerud and Østfold.
** Estimates based on actual sales, future sales starts, and historical data.
37 *** Uncertainty due to project lead-time.
Illustrative risk profile at construction start of a NOK 100 million project with a 12% margin
• Construction starts after minimum 60% pre-sale
• Remaining risk very limited
Illustrative risk profile at construction start of a NOK 100 million project with a 20% margin
• Construction starts after minimum 60% pre-sale
• Remaining risk very limited.
* Net income attributable to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA.
** Based on equity at the start of the period (attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA).
Q1 2020 Net income excluding Other gains of NOK 1 029m Q1 2020 Net income including Other gains of NOK 1 029m
*Excluding earnings and dividend from UP transaction.
**Including EPS of NOK 11.01 and DPS of NOK 22 from UP transaction.
The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 60 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the company's liquidity forecasts and capital adequacy.
The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 40 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the company's liquidity forecasts and capital adequacy.
The company will maintain an equity ratio of minimum 30 per cent.
Source: Oslo Børs.
· Trading
* All numbers in brackets from previous quarter.
* Further information regarding shareholders is presented at: http://sboasa.no/en.
| Shareholder | of # shares |
% share |
|---|---|---|
| SELVAAG AS |
50 180 087 |
53 .5% |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB * |
5 992 724 |
4% 6 |
| PARETO INVEST NORGE AS |
4 361 772 |
4 .7% |
| VERDIPAPIRFONDET ALFRED BERG GAMBA |
3 266 051 |
.5% 3 |
| The Northern Trust Comp, London * Br |
2 186 000 |
2 3% |
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London * |
1 989 006 |
.1% 2 |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken * AB |
000 000 1 |
1.1% |
| MUSTAD INDUSTRIER AS |
950 707 |
1.0% |
| SANDEN EQUITY AS |
909 594 |
1.0% |
| The Northern Trust Comp, London Br * |
840 200 |
9% 0 |
| State Street Bank and Comp * Trust |
772 357 |
0 8% |
| BANAN II AS |
750 000 |
8% 0 |
| Landkreditt Utbytte |
700 000 |
0 .7% |
| Brown Brothers Harriman Co * & |
684 200 |
0 .7% |
| SELVAAG BOLIG ASA |
552 630 |
0 6% |
| Brown Brothers Harriman Co * & |
513 908 |
0 .5% |
| Stanley Co . International Morgan & |
373 850 |
0 4% |
| HOLTA INVEST AS |
354 900 |
0 4% |
| KBC Bank * NV |
335 856 |
0 4% |
| Citibank, N.A. * |
325 020 |
0 3% |
| Total 20 largest shareholders |
038 862 77 |
82.2% |
| Other shareholders |
16 726 826 |
17.8% |
| of Total number shares |
93 765 688 |
100.0% |
Trondheim 278 units
Stockholm 820 units
Greater-Oslo
8 054 units
Land bank exposure
Trondheim 278 units
Geographical spread
8 054 units
Greater-Oslo Bergen 633 units
Stavanger 688 units
Note: The numbers represent the size of the land portfolio at 30 September 2022. All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures. The total portfolio is ~10 500 units. Of these ~5 250 are options and obligations to buy.
47
• Service offerings and good neighbourliness, make every day living easier
Source: Eiendomsverdi.
Source: Eiendomsverdi.
Source: Eiendomsverdi.
Source: Eiendomsverdi.
* Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg.
| Area | % chg -1M | % chg. -1M seasonal adj. |
% chg YtD | % chg -12m | % chg -5Y | % chg -10Y | Average price/sqm (NOK) |
Avefage price (NOK) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oslo | -3.2% | -1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 29.4% | 81.2% | 86 256 | 6 160 824 |
| Bergen | -0.4% | -0.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 21.5% | 46.9% | 50 299 | 4 218 757 |
| Trondheim | -1.2% | -0.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 19.0% | 46.8% | 51 656 | 4 303 401 |
| Stavanger-area** | -1.5% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 15.5% | 4.4% | 39 612 | 4 195 313 |
| Norway | -1.9% | -0.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 23.6% | 58.2% | 48 701 | 4 328 496 |
Source: Eiendom Norge.
* Nominal price change.
** Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg.
0.9%
-1.1%
-2.4% -2.5%
-0.5%
** Includes Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Randaberg.
*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures
| Lørenskog | 1 666 units | |
|---|---|---|
| Lørenskog Stasjonsby | 613 units | |
| Skårer Bolig | 415 units | |
| LSV | 500 units | |
| Pallplassen | 138 units | |
| Lillestrøm | ||
| 1 666 | ||
| units | ||
| Bjerke | 1 400 units | |
| Bjerke | 1 400 units | |
| Oslo South | 315 units | |
| Gjertsrud Stensrud | 315 units | |
| Follo/Østfold | 1 435 units | |
| Langhus | 49 units | |
| Solberg | 32 units | |
| Ski | 88 units | |
| Grenseveien | 340 units | |
| Fredrikstad | 726 units | |
| Vestby | 200 units | |
*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures
*The numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig's share in joint ventures.
Fee structure:
Eliminates need for equity when purchasing land, as SBO pay 50% of purchasing price at construction start and 50%
Benefits for Selvaag Bolig:
land plots
(break fee)
More efficient and predictable funding of existing and new
Increases competitiveness when making land purchases - Down-side risk for SBO limited to 48 months option premium
Selvaag Bolig sold most of its land bank to Urban Property in January 2020, entering a long-term and strategic partnership. Urban Property is a financially sound, well capitalized and predictable partner.
1) + 2.5% transaction fee and option price (Nibor + 375bps).
Delivery in accordance with expectations
Project margin 18%
Delivery to customers
| Acquire and refine land for development |
Project design | Contracting, marketing and pre-sales |
Construction and sales | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project margin 20% |
· Buy (i) options on unzoned land or (ii) ready-to-build land · Opitmize project for zoning process |
· Optimize project design - Net/gross-factor - Tailor to meet market demand price/quality · Plan and prepare for construction |
· Pre-marketing · Competitive tender for construction · 60% pre-sale before construction start |
· Fixed-price contracts · Prices on remaining 40% increased gradually · Construction financed with construction loans |
| 15% | ||||
| 10% | ||||
| 5% | ||||
| 0% | ||||
| Land acquired with minimum 10% project margin 1) Assuming flat market development. |
Adding value through building permits and area utilisation |
Value added when achieving 60% pre-sale |
Maximising price in accordance with market |
· Target 100% sale at delivery
Example apply a land ownership period in Urban Property of 3-4 years, and a finance cost of 4% on all capital employed in the project.
| PROJECT CALCULATIONS 1 BEFORE URBAN PROPERTY |
PROJECT CALCULATIONS 2 |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFTER URBAN PROPERTY | ||||
| Figures for illustration purposes only | MNOK | % | MNOK | % |
| Sales revenue | 348.5 | 100.0% | 348.5 | 100.0% |
| Construction cost | 195.8 | 56.2% | 195.8 | 56.2% |
| Land cost | 69.7 | 20.0% | 85.2 | 24.4% |
| Other costs | 24.5 | 7.0% | 24.5 | 7.0% |
| Project cost | 290.0 | 83.2% | 305.5 | 87.7% |
| Net finance (excluding Urban Property) | 16.8 | 4.8% | 5.3 | 1.5% |
| TOTAL REVENUE | 348.5 | 100.0% | 348.5 | 100.0% |
| TOTAL COST | 306.8 | 88.0% | 310.9 | 89.2% |
| PROFIT | 41.7 | 12.0 % | 37.7 | 10.8% |
| Internal rate of return (IRR) | 12.2% | 28.0% | ||
2
In total marginal lower project margins, but significantly increased IRR and RoE
* Includes project revenues only.
** Project margins are exclusive of overhead costs. Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting (NGAAP).
NOK million
Total land bank Options and obligations to acquire Land bank in balance sheet
Units
* SBO land bank not included in the UP transaction
NOK million
| 1 401 | 1 401 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 209 | ||||
| 731 | 753 | |||
| 1 265 | 394 | 554 | ||
| 1 033 | ||||
| 634 | 636 | |||
| 439 | ||||
Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Sales value of sold units (net) Sales value of sold units (gross)
NOK million
Units
| (figures in NOK million) | Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 | 9M 2022 | 9M 2021 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total operating revenues | 905.4 | 886.9 | 2 227.5 | 1 848.9 | 3 402.7 |
| Project expenses | (742.1) | (698.5) | (1 799.3) | (1 404.5) | (2 617.4) |
| Other operating expenses | (52.9) | (53.8) | (156.4) | (158.4) | (236.4) |
| Associated companies and joint ventures | (2.2) | 55.3 | 94.0 | 100.7 | 109.7 |
| EBITDA | 108.2 | 189.9 | 365.8 | 386.7 | 658.6 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | (2.4) | (2.6) | (7.2) | (7.7) | (10.3) |
| Other gains (loss) | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT | 105.8 | 187.3 | 358.6 | 379.0 | 648.3 |
| Net financial expenses | 1.6 | (1.8) | (0.1) | (8.1) | (3.0) |
| Profit/(loss) before taxes | 107.3 | 185.6 | 358.5 | 370.9 | 645.3 |
| Income taxes | (28.3) | (32.2) | (65.1) | (84.4) | (140.4) |
| Net income | 79.1 | 153.4 | 293.4 | 286.5 | 504.9 |
| (figures in NOK million) |
Q3 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets |
383.4 | 383.4 | 383.4 |
| equipment Property, plant and |
8.0 | 8.1 | 7.4 |
| in associated companies joint Investments and ventures |
235.7 | 349.2 | 354.7 |
| Other non-current assets |
315.1 | 300.5 | 302.3 |
| Total non-current assets |
942.2 | 1 041.2 |
1 047.7 |
| Inventories (property) |
4 124.8 |
4 122.2 |
4 072.5 |
| - Land | 805.2 | 848.9 | 033.8 1 |
| for - Land held sale |
|||
| in - Work progress |
3 189.5 |
3 153.8 |
2 872.2 |
| - Finished goods |
130.2 | 119.5 | 166.4 |
| receivables Other current |
249.7 | 115.3 | 134.3 |
| Cash and cash equivalents |
774.8 | 709.5 | 527.4 |
| Total current assets |
5 149.4 |
4 947.0 |
4 734.2 |
| TOTAL ASSETS |
6 091.6 |
5 988.1 |
5 782.0 |
| Equity attributed to shareholders in Selvaag Bolig ASA* |
2 279.1 |
2 387.2 |
2 461.1 |
| Non-controlling interests |
7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| Total equity |
2 286.9 |
2 395.0 |
2 468.8 |
| Non-current interest-bearing liabilities |
477.2 1 |
239.8 1 |
777.2 |
| Other non-current non interest-bearing liabilities |
401.6 | 376.6 | 341.0 |
| Total liabilities non-current |
878.8 1 |
616.4 1 |
118.2 1 |
| interest-bearing liabilities Current |
1 090.0 |
1 299.0 |
1 370.5 |
| non interest-bearing liabilities Other current |
835.9 | 677.7 | 824.4 |
| Total liabilities current |
925.9 1 |
976.8 1 |
2 194.9 |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES |
6 091.6 |
5 988.1 |
5 782.0 |
| (figures in NOK million) |
Q3 2022 |
Q3 2021 |
9M 2022 |
9M 2021 |
2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash flow from operating activities |
126.1 | 174.5 | 115.0 | (328.6) | 392.6 |
| cash flow from investment activities Net |
119.2 | 133.4 | 250.4 | 169.1 | 167.1 |
| Net cash flow from financing activities |
(180.0) | (278.3) | (118.1) | (116.2) | (917.6) |
| in equivalents Net change cash and cash |
65.3 | 29.5 | 247.4 | (275.7) | (357.9) |
| equivalents of period Cash and cash at start |
709.5 | 580.2 | 527.4 | 885.3 | 885.3 |
| equivalents of period Cash and cash at end |
774.8 | 609.7 | 774.8 | 609.7 | 527.4 |
| Q3 21 |
Q4 21 |
Q1 22 |
Q2 22 |
Q3 22 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units sold |
125 | 276 | 201 | 120 | 83 |
| Construction starts |
148 | 456 | 113 | 190 | 68 |
| Units completed |
318 | 334 | 74 | 210 | 142 |
| Units delivered |
314 | 324 | 77 | 217 | 144 |
| Units under construction |
201 1 |
323 1 |
361 1 |
342 1 |
268 1 |
| Proportion of sold units under construction |
76 % |
67 % |
73 % |
% 75 |
73 % |
| units Completed unsold |
16 | 25 | 19 | 13 | 19 |
| of units construction (NOK million) Sales value under |
6 200 |
6 736 |
7 034 |
6 807 |
6 225 |
Note: EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies.
| Property | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| (figures in million) NOK |
development | Other | Total |
| Operating revenues |
774.8 | 13.4 | 788.1 |
| Project expenses |
(636.5) | (0.2) | (636.7) |
| Other operating expenses |
(4.9) | (50.4) | (55.3) |
| EBITDA (percentage of completion) |
133.4 | (37.2) | 96.1 |
| Construction are exclusive of financial expenses in the reporting. Note: costs segment |
|||
| IFRS for the EBITDA quarter, per segment |
|||
| Operating revenues |
892.0 | 13.4 | 905.4 |
| Project expenses |
(741.8) | (0.2) | (742.1) |
| Other operating expenses |
(4.9) | (48.0) | (52.9) |
| of income (losses) from associated companies Share |
|||
| and joint ventures Other gain (loss), net |
(2.2) - |
- | (2.2) |
| EBITDA | 143.1 | (34.9) | 108.2 |
| Units in production |
1 268 |
N/A | N/A |
| Units delivered |
144 | N/A | N/A |
Note: EBITDA is operating profit before depreciation, gains (losses) and profit from associated companies.
| Property | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| (figures in NOK million) |
development | Other | Total |
| Operating revenues |
2 287.6 |
42.8 | 2 330.4 |
| Project expenses |
(1 860.3) |
(0.6) | (1 860.9) |
| operating Other expenses |
(21.5) | (141.9) | (163.5) |
| (percentage of completion) EBITDA |
405.8 | (99.7) | 306.0 |
| Construction are exclusive of financial expenses in reporting. Note: costs the segment |
|||
| IFRS EBITDA full year per segment |
|||
| Operating revenues |
2 184.7 |
42.8 | 2 227.5 |
| Project expenses |
(1 798.7) |
(0.6) | (1 799.3) |
| Other operating expenses |
(21.5) | (134.9) | (156.4) |
| Share of income (losses) from associated companies |
|||
| and joint ventures |
94.0 | - | 94.0 |
| EBITDA | 458.5 | (92.7) | 365.8 |
| Units in production |
1 268 |
N/A | N/A |
| Units delivered |
438 | N/A | N/A |
Source: Selvaag Bolig and Eurostat.
Household debt in % of net disposable income (2021) Homeownership rate (2020)
Source: OECD, Statista.
Source: Statistics Norway, Samfunnsøkonomisk Analyse.
* Estimated annual growth for the 2020-25 period.
** Number of persons per household in Norway.
Source: Eiendomsverdi.
* Stavanger area includes: Randaberg, Sandnes, Sola, Stavanger.
Share of total population in Oslo and Akershus Share of total population growth in Oslo and Akershus
Source: Statistics Norway.
Homeownership rate among immigrants in Norway (per year living in Norway)
Source: Statistics Norway.
Source: Bloomberg, UN.
* Central bank rates.
79
Wages & disposable income 2019 – 2025e Prices & interest rates 2019 – 2025e
Source: Monetary Policy Report 2|22, Central Bank of Norway.
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