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Gjensidige Forsikring ASA

Investor Presentation Oct 20, 2023

3606_rns_2023-10-20_d0c0412a-91c4-4976-94a5-d1ef43dc5a86.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Q3 2023 Interim presentation

20 October 2023

Extreme weather in Q3'23 tough reminders of climate changes

  • Primary focus on assisting customers and handling large amount of inquiries
    • Swift response
    • Effective digital customer solutions
    • Strong supplier network across borders
  • Claims cost related to 'Hans', torrential rain and damages to crops1 totalled NOK 559m in Q3'23
  • Maintaining close dialogue with authorities to mitigate future damages

Third quarter result impacted by weather and one-off effects

  • Pre-tax profit NOK 1,120m
  • Insurance service result NOK 1,111m
    • 13.1% insurance revenue growth
    • High level of large losses, reflecting extreme weather events
    • One-off expenses related to a write-down on the new IT-system, Group restructuring and distribution agreement in Denmark
    • Elevated claims frequency for motor and damaged crops in Norway impacted underlying profitability
  • Financial result NOK 119m, return 0.2%
  • Return on equity 17.9%1

Combined ratio

Insurance service result Financial result Other

APMs are described at www.gjensidige.no/group/investor-relations/reports in a document named APMs Gjensidige Forsikring Group Q3 2023. 1) Annualised, YTD. Gjensidige Forsikring Group 3

Staying ahead of claims inflation. Price increases at least in line with expected claims inflation

Continuous monitoring and rapid response to claims inflation

Best market terms on supplier contracts

Operational highlights

  • Sustained growth momentum
  • Private:
    • Continued strong growth in Norway, Danish portfolio impacted by market conditions and new core IT-system
    • Higher motor claims frequency in Norway met with price increases and higher deductibles
  • Commercial:
    • Continued strong growth momentum
  • Group core IT-system almost fully implemented in Private Denmark - Commercial Denmark expected to be implemented in 2025
  • Good revenue growth in Sweden and the Baltics

Maintaining high retention in Norway

Strong reputation confirmed in Ipsos' survey

Moving forward with sustainability initiatives

  • Made donation to the farmers' sustainability fund
  • Sharing knowledge and best practice regarding insuring against climate-related risks
  • Assisting SMEs to improve safety conditions in workplaces in Norway
  • Expanded age in "Assistance with internet use and identity theft" in child insurance
  • Informing customers about opportunities to implement climate-related damage-prevention measures

Financial Performance

Insurance service result impacted by weather claims and one-off effects

NOKm Q3 2023 Q3 2022 YTD 2023 YTD 2022
Private 767 885 2 038 2 335
Commercial 1 236 1 028 2 876 2 596
Sweden 40 62 144 136
Baltics 15 8 22 (49)
Corporate Centre (948) (118) (1 345) (583)
Insurance service result general
insurance
1 111 1 864 3 735 4 435
Pension 4 (83) (8) (5)
Net financial
result
investment
portfolio, general insurance
115 (502) 585 (2 232)
Other items (110) (165) (367) 445
Profit before
tax
expense
1 120 1 115 3 945 2 643
  • Continued high revenue growth
  • Negative impact from weather-claims and oneoff expenses
  • Bulk of large losses and one-off expenses allocated to Corporate Centre
  • Financial result reflects a higher running yield on fixed-income investments
  • Pension result reflects increased financial income and one-offs

13.1 per cent revenue growth – 9.5 per cent adjusted for currency effects

Insurance revenue development

  • Private +6.8% (NOK), mainly price driven
  • Norway +5.8%; Denmark -0.6% (local currency)
  • Commercial +17.1% (NOK), price and volume driven
  • Norway +11.1%; Denmark +17.8% (local currency)
  • Sweden +11.9% (NOK)
    • +9.4% in local currency, mainly volume driven
  • Baltics +31.7% (NOK)
    • +16.3% in local currency, price and volume driven

Gross written premium

Motor Private Norway +7.5%

Property Private Norway +6.7%

Health Norway +4.3%

Increased loss ratio

Loss ratio development

%
1 2

Key drivers

  • Higher large losses due to weather events
  • Change in underlying frequency loss ratio primarily driven by Norway
  • Higher discounting effect due to increased interest rates
  • Continued effective pricing measures

Operating expenses

Group cost ratio at 17.0% impacted by one-off expenses - 12.6% excluding one-off expenses

0 300 600 Private Commercial Sweden Baltics Corporate Centre Q3 2022 Q3 2023 NOK m

Cost ratios

  • Group cost ratio excluding one-off expenses broadly stable at 12.6%
  • One-off expenses:
    • NOK 310m in write-down on the new core IT-system in Denmark – recognised in Corporate Centre
    • NOK 49m in restructuring provisions recognised in Corporate Centre
    • NOK 50m related to renewal of a distribution agreement in Denmark – recognised in Private

Strong performance in Pension

Pre-tax profit Assets under management

Investment return of 0.2 per cent, driven by market conditions

Investment return per asset class Balanced investment portfolio

Fixed-income: 93.8%

Listed equities: 2.4%

PE funds: 2.0%

Other (incl. hedge funds and commodities): 1.8%

High credit quality

Investment grade: 82.1% Investment grade (internal rating): 8.8% Non-investment grade: 0.7% Non-investment grade (internal rating): 0.4% Unrated: 8.1%

Securing an optimal capital base - successful launch of T2 and buy-back

  • Significantly oversubscribed Subordinated Tier 2 bond issue
    • Amount: NOK 1,200m
    • Rate: 3 months NIBOR + 2.25% p.a.
    • Maturity: 30.25 years
  • Buy-back in outstanding Tier 2 bond GJF01
    • Amount: NOK 696m
    • Outstanding loan amount after buy-back: NOK 504m

Strong capital position

Solvency ratio

• 183% when adjusting for acquisition of PenSam Forsikring (expected completion Q4'23)

Eligible own funds

  • Contribution from operating SII earnings and result in free portfolio offset by formulaic dividend assumption
  • NOK 504m increase in funds from T2 loan issue and buy-back
  • Acquisition of portfolio from Sønderjysk Forsikring reduced funds

Capital requirement

  • Higher non-life insurance risk driven by growth
  • Lower market risk due to lower exposure to equities

1) Operating SII earnings comprise SII underwriting result and SII financial result of the match portfolio after tax. 2) 80% payout ratio according to dividend policy for the accounting year 2023. Gjensidige Forsikring Group 15

Moving ahead on operational targets

Metric Status Q3 2023 Target 2025
Customer
satisfaction
78 > 78, Group
Customer retention 90% > 90%, Norway
78% > 85%, Outside
Norway
Digitalisation
index
+5% > +10%
annually, Group
Digital claims reporting 72% > 85%, Group
Automated claims
processing
59% > 70%, Norway

High customer retention in Norway, improvement potential in Denmark

  • Strong growth momentum sustained
  • Outlook remains good
    • Superior market position
    • Continued implementation of targeted measures to improve underlying profitability
    • Operational excellence to be further enhanced through new Group structure
    • Strong capital position
  • Due to severe weather claims and one-off expenses in Q3'23, it will be challenging to deliver on the Group's financial targets for 2023
  • Will continue to pay out attractive dividends to shareholders

Ambitious annual financial targets from 2023

Roadshows and conferences post Q3 2023 results

Date Location Participants Event Arranged
by
20 October Oslo CEO Geir Holmgren
CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow Carnegie
23 October London CEO Geir Holmgren
CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow Danske
22 November Oslo Group management
IR
Capital Markets Day Gjensidige
24 November Oslo CEO Geir Holmgren
CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow TBD
24 November Copenhagen CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow TBD
27 November Frankfurt CEO Geir Holmgren
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow TBD
28 November London CFO Jostein Amdal
IRO Marius M. Fjellbo
Roadshow TBD
4-6 Desember USA & Canada CEO Geir Holmgren
Head of IR Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow DNB Markets

General insurance Norway – cost ratio and loss ratio per segment

Private Norway Commercial Norway

Private Denmark Commercial Denmark

Sweden

General insurance – cost ratio and loss ratio per segment

Baltics

Large losses higher than expected

CC = Corporate Centre. Large losses: Losses > NOK 10m. Weather related large losses are included. Large losses in excess of NOK 30m are charged to the Corporate Centre while up to NOK 30m per claim is charged to the segment in which the large loss occurred. The Baltics segment has, as a main rule, a retention level of EUR 0.5m. The Sweden segment has a retention level of NOK 10m. Gjensidige Forsikring Group 23

Large losses development

Large losses per segment (before discounting) actual vs. expected

Run-off gains 1.8 percentage points

Appendix

Run-off

Appendix

Quarterly insurance service results - seasonality in Nordic general insurance

2022 2023

Gross written premiums

Norwegian Natural Perils Pool in brief

Details regarding the pool

  • As per 1.1.2023 the premium rate is set to 0.065 per thousand of the fire insurance amount, no change from 2022
  • Natural perils damages in Norway:
    • o NOK 0-1,500m covered by general insurance companies based on national market share
    • o NOK 1,500m-16,000m covered by the Norwegian Natural Perils Pool's reinsurance programme
    • o Maximum compensation per event is NOK 16,000m
  • No limit for the frequency of events

Objects covered

  • Fire insurance coverage for buildings and contents in Norway includes coverage for natural catastrophes
  • The pool does not cover loss of profits, motor vehicles, leisure boats, and certain other items, which are covered through ordinary insurances
  • For damages on private property that cannot be insured, e.g., roads, bridges, farmland and forests, coverage may be sought through the National Natural Perils Fund

Handling of natural perils claims

Details regarding the pool

  • The customers report claims to own insurance company
  • The insurance company reports claims on to Finance Norway, which coordinates the Norwegian Natural Perils Pool
  • Share of claims is allocated to the companies based on national market share for fire insurance
  • Through own accounts, the companies cover the allocated claims costs

Gjensidige specific

  • Gjensidige is a reinsurer for the pool, for its own market share
  • Natural perils claims are booked in the same month as the claim occurs

Appendix

Reinsurance – overview valid as from 2023

  • Reinsurance is purchased for protection of the Group's capital position and is primarily a capital management tool.
  • General retention level per loss/loss occurrence is NOK/DKK/SEK 100m (for the first loss the retention is NOK/DKK/SEK 200m).
  • For weather-related events the retention level is NOK/DKK/SEK 250m.
  • Maximum retention level for the group per loss/loss occurrence/event across reinsurance programmes is NOK 600m including any reinstatement premium.
  • Gjensidige considers additional coverage if this is appropriate according to internal modelling and capital requirement.

Practical example, natural perils claim in Norway

  • A natural perils event covered by the Norwegian Natural Perils Pool occurs and is defined by Finance Norway as a single event. The total industry claim exceeds NOK 1,500m.
  • Gjensidige's share of the NOK 1,500 claim is allocated according to share in the pool.
  • Gjensidige is in addition allocated its share of the amount exceeding NOK 1,500m, as a reinsurer for the pool.
  • Gjensidige receives claims directly, for damages not covered by the pool.
  • Gjensidige's total claims related to the natural perils event exceeds Gjensidige's retention level and hits the catastrophe reinsurance programme.
  • In general Gjensidige's net impact for this event is NOK 250m.

  • Duration and currency matching versus technical provisions
  • Credit element for increased returns
  • Some inflation hedging

Free portfolio

  • Focused on absolute returns
  • Dynamic risk management
  • Active management fixed income and equities
  • Normal risk premiums basis for asset allocation and use of capital

Match portfolio Key characteristics

  • Limited risk appetite
  • Fixed-income:
  • Currency hedging vs NOK ~ 100% o Limit +/- 10% per currency
  • Equity and PE funds:
    • Currency hedging 0-100%
  • Fair value recognition
  • Stable performance

Investment portfolio

Asset class elements1
Investments, key
Benchmark
Match
portfolio
Fixed-income NOK Corporate and government bonds NBP Norwegian RM1-RM3 Duration 3Y Index -
NORM123D3
(Alternatively: a Norwegian IG fund with 3 year duration)
Fixed-income DKK Covered Bonds and government bonds Nykredit
Constant Maturity Index Bullet Covered Bonds 5Y -
NYKRCMB5 Index
Fixed-income other currencies Covered bonds, corporate and government bonds Bloomberg Euro Agg Treasury 3-5Y -
LET3TREU Index
Free portfolio
Fixed-income –
short duration
Norwegian
money market
NBP Norwegian Government Duration 0.25 Index -
NOGOVD3M
(Alternatively: I36032NO Index Bloomberg Barclays Norway T-Bills)
Global investment grade bonds IG
bonds in internationally diversified funds externally managed
Bloomberg Global Agg Corp -
Hedged to NOK -
H09805NO Index
Global high yield bonds Including HY, Convertible bonds and Emerging Market Debt externally managed Bloomberg Global HY-
Hedged to NOK -
H00039NO Index
Other bonds Government bonds, Fixed Income derivatives and cash NBP Norwegian Government Duration 0.25 Index -
NOGOVD3M
(Alternatively: I36032NO Index Bloomberg Barclays Norway T-Bills)
Listed equities Mainly
internationally and domestic diversified funds externally
managed
MSCI World –
Local Currency -
NDDLWI Index
Private Equity funds Generalists (Norwegian and Nordic)/ Oil & Gas Oslo Børs
-
OSEBX index
Other Including finance related expenses, hedge funds and commodities NBP Norwegian Government Duration 0.25 Index -
NOGOVD3M
(Alternatively: I36032NO Index Bloomberg Barclays Norway T-Bills)

Asset allocation – as at 30.09.2023

Match portfolio

  • NOK 34.9bn
  • Average duration: 3.1 years
  • Average yield: 4.8%

Fixed-income NOK: 57.2%

  • Fixed-income DKK: 31.7%
  • Fixed-income other currencies: 11.2%

Free portfolio

  • NOK 24.4bn
  • Average duration fixed-income instruments: 2.3 years
  • Average yield: 4.8%

  • Fixed-income short duration: 35.7%
  • Global investment grade bonds: 40.5%
  • Global high yield bonds: 3.7%
  • Other bonds: 5.1%
  • Listed equities : 5.8%
  • Private Equity funds: 4.8%
  • Other: 4.4%

Credit and counterparty risk

  • The portfolio consists mainly of securities in rated companies with high creditworthiness (Investment grade)
  • Issuers with no official rating are mainly Norwegian savings banks, municipalities, credit institutions and power producers and distributors

Total fixed income portfolio

Split –
Rating
Match portfolio Free portfolio
NOK bn % NOK bn %
AAA 14.1 40.4 3.6 17.3
AA 2.9 8.4 6.5 31.2
A 8.3 23.8 4.4 21.2
BBB 3.7 10.7 2.2 10.4
BB 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2
B 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
CCC or lower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Internal rating1 2.7 7.9 2.4 11.4
Unrated 3.1 8.9 1.4 6.8
Fixed income portfolio 34.9 100.0 20.8 100.0
Split –
Counterparty
Match portfolio Free portfolio
NOK bn % NOK bn %
Public sector 5.7 16.3 8.5 40.7
Bank/financial
institutions 18.9 54.1 8.4 40.6
Corporates 10.4 29.7 3.9 18.8
Total 34.9 100.0 20.8 100.0

Capital generation year-to-date

1) Operating SII earnings comprise SII underwriting result and SII financial result of the match portfolio after tax. 2) 80% payout ratio according to dividend policy for the accounting year 2023. Gjensidige Forsikring Group 37

Capital position per operational areas

NOK bn Approved partial internal
model (Group)
Approved partial internal
model (general
insurance)
Own partial internal
model (Group)1
Own partial internal
model
(general insurance)1
Gjensidige
Pensjonsforsikring
Eligible own
funds
21.3 19.0 21.5 19.2 2.2
Capital
requirement
11.5 10.6 9.3 8.3 1.5
Solvency ratio 185% 180% 232% 231% 147%

Solvency II eligible own funds

Bridging the gap between IFRS equity and Solvency II capital

Gjensidige continues to work for full approval of own partial internal model (PIM)

NOK bn Approved
PIM (Group)
1)
Own PIM
(Group) 2)
Eligible own funds 21.3 21.5
Capital charge for non-life and health UW risk 11.1 8.6
Capital charge for life UW risk 1.8 1.8
Capital charge for market risk 4.8 4.3
Capital charge for counterparty
risk
0.5 0.5
Diversification -4.3 -4.3
Basic solvency capital requirement 13.9 10.9
Operational
risk
1.1 1.1
Adjustments (loss-absorbing capacity of deferred
tax)
-3.5 -2.8
Solvency capital requirement (SCR) 11.5 9.3
Surplus 9.2 11.7
Solvency ratio 185% 232%

Main differences between approved and own PIM

  • Windstorm model: Approved PIM based on standard formula. More validation required for approval.
  • Correlation between market risk and underwriting risk: Approved PIM based on standard formula. Own PIM takes account of dependencies between underwriting risk and market risk through common exposure to interest rates, inflation rates and currency rates.
  • Prudential margin: Approved PIM includes general prudential margins for both market risk and underwriting risk.

Figures as at 30.09.2023.

1) Most of non-life and health iunderwriting risk and market risk related to the non-life and health insurance business is internally modelled. The standard formula is used for other risks. 2) Own partial internal model is not validated. Gjensidige Forsikring Group 40

Appendix

Solvency II sensitivities for the approved partial internal model

Subordinated debt capacity – Gjensidige Forsikring Group

Principles for capacity

T1 T2 Constraint
SII Max 20% of
Tier 1 capital
Max 50% of
SCR less
other
T2 capital
items
Must be satisfied at
group and solo level

Capacity and utilisation

  • Tier 1 remaining capacity is NOK 2.0-2.5bn
    • Utilised Tier 1 debt capacity: NOK 1.2bn
  • Tier 2 remaining capacity is NOK 0.4bn
    • Utilised sub debt: NOK 2.8bn
    • Utilised natural perils fund: NOK 2.5bn

Annualised return on equity 17.9 per cent

Equity (NOK m) Annualised return on equity (%)

Market leader in Norway

Growth opportunities outside Norway

Appendix

Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring - Number five position in the growing Norwegian defined contribution pension market

  • Well positioned for continued profitable organic growth
  • Core focus on SME customers
  • Strong profitability
  • Multi-channel distribution

Market shares – total AUM NOK 398 bn

Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring

Group policy 1 and company portfolio Number of occupational pension members

Fixed income - short duration: 14.9%

Property exsposure: 7.9%

Equity funds: 3.5%

In thousand

Appendix

New buffer for future profit arising from Life insurance

  • Life insurance contracts are separated into profitable and onerous groups, based on best estimate at recognition.
  • Future profits are set aside in CSM as estimated unearned profit.
  • CSM released to P&L proportionately to risk reduction.
  • Loss component arising from onerous contracts affects P&L directly at recognition.

Example

Ownership

10 largest shareholders1

No Shareholder Stake (%)
1 Gjensidigestiftelsen 62.24
2 Folketrygdfondet 4.41
3 Deutsche Bank 2.92
4 BlackRock
Inc
2.83
5 Scotia Bank 1.96
6 The Vanguard
Group, Inc
1.22
7 Storebrand Investments 1.13
8 Nordea 1.10
9 State Street 0.98
10 Danske Bank 0.95
Total 10 largest 79.74

Geographical distribution of shares2

Gjensidigestiftelsen ownership policy

  • Long term target holding: >60%
  • Can accept reduced ownership ratio in case of acquisitions and capital issues when in accordance with Gjensidige's overall strategy

1) Shareholder list based on analysis performed by Orient Capital Ltd of the register of shareholders in the Norwegian Central Securities Depository (VPS) as per 30 September 2023. This analysis provides a survey of the shareholders who are behind the nominee accounts. There is no guarantee that the list is complete. 2) Distribution of shares excluding share held by the Gjensidige Foundation (Gjensidigestiftelsen). Gjensidige Forsikring Group 49

Disclaimer

This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (the "Company"). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligations to update or correct any of the information set out herein.

These materials may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and is not prepared or made in connection with, an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, it does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, its affiliates or any of their respective advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "US Securities Act"), and are offered and sold only outside the United States in accordance with an exemption from registration provided by Regulation S of the US Securities Act.

This presentation should not form the basis of any investment decision. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offering documents published in relation to such an offering. For further information about the Company, reference is made public disclosures made by the Company, such as filings made with the Oslo Stock Exchange, periodic reports and other materials available on the Company's web pages.

Gjensidige Forsikring provides alternative performance measures (APMs) in the financial reports, in addition to the financial figures prepared in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The measures are not defined in IFRS (International Financial Report Standards) and are not necessarily directly comparable to other companies' performance measures. The APMs are not intended to be a substitute for, or superior to, any IFRS measures of performance, but have been included to provide insight into Gjensidige's performance and represent important measures for how management governs the Group and its business activities. Key figures that are regulated by IFRS or other legislation, as well as non-financial information, are not regarded as APMs. Gjensidige's APMs are presented in the quarterly report and presentation. All APMs are presented with comparable figures for earlier periods. The APMs have generally been used consistently over time. Definitions and calculations can be found at www.gjensidige.no/group/investor-relations/reports.

Investor Relations

Mitra Hagen Negård Head of Investor Relations Mobile: (+47) 957 93 631 [email protected] Marius Michelsen Fjellbo Investor Relations Officer Mobile: (+47) 995 67 593 [email protected] Address

Schweigaards gate 21, P.O. Box 700 Sentrum, NO-0106 OSLO gjensidige.no/ir

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