Investor Presentation • Feb 8, 2024
Investor Presentation
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8 February 2024 Aker BP ASA
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.
These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business.
These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions.
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document.
Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document.
Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
1,000 barrels oil equivalent per day (mboepd)1
8.3
12.4
Aker BP emission intensity, kg CO2e per boe
2.8
5
| Original 1 guidance |
Latest 2 guidance |
Actual 2023 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 430 | 455 | 457 |
| mboped | -460 | -465 | |
| Production cost | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.2 |
| USD/boe | -8.0 | -6.5 | |
| Capex | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| USD billion | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
| Exploration | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.36 |
| USD billion | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
| Abandonment USD billion |
0.1 -0.2 |
~0.2 | 0.16 |
One-team culture with our main suppliers based on common goals and shared incentives
Framework for developing more efficient work processes
Re-thinking how we structure our interactions with suppliers and business partners
Essential enabler for building the E&P company of the future
Ambition to lead the industry transformation as the E&P company of the future
Return maximum value to our shareholders and our society
Large scale, low risk assets on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
1) TRIF and SIF in prior years have been restated to reflect a more accurate methodology for measurement of exposure hours. See Quarterly report Q4 2023 for details.
Daily oil production since start-up
A giant field with excellent reservoir properties
Aker BP holds 31.6% ownership in the Johan Sverdrup partnership operated by Equinor Copyright Equinor
Rolling 12m, operated assets only
USD per boe, 2023e
1) Source Wood Mackenzie. Companies included: Aker BP, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, DNO, Eni, EOG Resources, Equinor, ExxonMobil, , Galp Energia, Harbour Energy, Hess Corp., Marathon Oil, OKEA, Pioneer, Shell, TotalEnergies, , Tullow Oil, Vår Energi.
Integration of new concepts
New ways of working
Integrated Operation Centres
Data-driven decisions
New cooperation models
Increased digital Automation competence for all
Remote operations and maintenance
16
Reducing absolute scope 1&2 GHG emissions before neutralising residual emissions
| Scope 1&2 | Scope 3 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avoid | Reduce | Neutralise | Upstream scope 3 reduction through procurement |
|
| Electrification of | Active energy | Carbon removal | Support new industries and drive technology development |
|
| greenfield assets and portfolio management |
management and brownfield electrification |
offsets for hard to-abate emissions |
Explore potential of CCS | |
| Create value through decarbonisation |
0 20 40 60 80 100 Net emission intensity 2023 kg CO2e per boe, equity share 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
285 largest producing upstream companies
Aker BP to offset all our remaining emissions using high-quality carbon removal projects
New assets with power from shore Target 100% electrification
Continued energy efficiency 2% annual reduction target
High quality carbon offsets Removal only, strict verification criteria
770 mmboe net oil and gas volume at net capex of around USD 3 billion after tax
| Asset area | Field development | Aker BP ownership |
Gross/net volume | Net capex estimate | PDO submission | Production start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosk | 80.0% | 10/8 mmboe | USD 0.2bn | 2021 | 2023 | |
| Alvheim | Kobra East & Gekko |
80.0% | 50/40 mmboe | USD 0.9bn | 2021 | 2023 |
| Tyrving | 61.3% | 25/15 mmboe | USD 0.4bn | 2022 | 2025 | |
| Hanz | 35.0% | 20/7 mmboe | USD 0.2bn | 2021 | 2024 | |
| Edvard Grieg & Ivar Aasen |
Symra | 50.0% | USD 1.3bn | Dec-22 | 20261) | |
| Solveig Phase II | 65.0% | 87/49 mmboe | 2026 | |||
| Alve North |
68.1% | 119/51 mmboe | USD 1.0bn | Dec-22 | 2027 | |
| Skarv | Idun North |
23.8% | 2027 | |||
| Ørn | 30.0% | 2027 | ||||
| Valhall PWP |
90.0% | USD 5.5bn | Dec-22 | 2027 | ||
| Valhall | Fenris | 77.8% | 230/187 mmboe | 2027 | ||
| Yggdrasil2) | Hugin | 87.7% | 2027 | |||
| Munin | 50.0% | 650/413 mmboe | USD 10.7bn | Dec-22 | 2027 | |
| Fulla | 47.7% | 2027 |
✓Competence and learning
✓ Well designs and equipment ✓Topside and subsea equipment ✓Facilitate efficient operations
The cornerstone of project planning and execution
Good progress in the first year since PDOs
Planning to produce around 525 mboepd in 2028
mboepd
| Gas ~40% of estimated volumes |
Aker BP (operator) |
Hugin: 87.7% Munin: 50.0% Fulla: 47.7% |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Power supply from shore |
Munin | Partners | Equinor and PGNiG Upstream Norway |
| A new digital standard |
Unmanned production platform Hugin A Production, drilling & quarters Hugin B |
Volume estimate | 650 mmboe (gross) / 413 mmboe (net) |
| 55 wells | Normally unmanned installation | Net capex estimate (nominal) |
USD 10.7 bn |
| Significant additional volume potential |
Production start est. | 2027 |
Subsea
Drilling
Alve N
Transactions + 18 organic development projects
33
Significant oil discovery in the Yggdrasil area
| Licence | Prospect | Operator | Aker BP share |
Pre-drill mmboe |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL102G | Trell North | Aker BP | 61% | 3 - 12 |
Drilling |
| PL1138 | Ametyst | Harbour Energy | 30% | 23 - 116 |
Drilling |
| PL956 | Ringhornet Ty | Vår Energi | 20% | 7 - 27 |
Drilling |
| PL442 | FGD/Ypsilon | Aker BP | 88% | 9 - 22 |
Q1 |
| PL1182S | Kjøttkake | DNO | 30% | 19 - 42 |
Q2 |
| PL1185 | Kvernbit | Equinor | 20% | 9 - 64 |
Q2 |
| PL203 | Alvheim Deep | Aker BP | 80% | 24 - 159 |
Q2 |
| PL261 | Storjo West | Aker BP | 70% | 4 - 32 |
Q2 |
| PL1170 | Ferdinand | Aker BP | 35% | 31 - 65 |
Q2 |
| PL1170 | Hassel | Aker BP | 35% | 27 - 47 |
Q2 |
| PL554 | Garantiana Skrustikke | Equinor | 30% | 26 - 99 |
Q2 |
| PL869 | Rumpetroll South | Aker BP | 80% | 10 - 45 |
Q3 |
| PL932 | Kaldafjell | Aker BP | 40% | 12 - 140 |
Q3 |
| PL110 | Njargasas | Aker BP | 55% | 23 - 120 |
Q4 |
| PL1131 | Elgol | Vår Energi | 20% | 27 - 180 |
Q4 |
| PL942 | Kongeørn | Aker BP | 30% | 5 - 39 |
Q4 |
billion boe
Operating cash flow 20.4 USD/share
Tax paid 11.8 USD/share
Free cash flow 3.1 USD/share Financial capacity 6.8 USD billion
Dividend 2.2 USD/share Leverage ratio 0.2
Free cash flow: Net cash flow after tax from operating activities less net cash flow from investment activities Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing
Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23
Liquids Natural gas
Total income USD million
USD million
| Q3 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before impairment | Impairments | Actual | Actual | |
| Total income | 3 556 | 3 556 | 3 513 | |
| Production costs | 298 | 298 | 252 | |
| Other operating expenses | 17 | 17 | 12 | |
| EBITDAX | 3 241 | 3 241 | 3 249 | |
| Exploration expenses | 67 | 67 | 74 | |
| EBITDA | 3 174 | 3 174 | 3 174 | |
| Depreciation | 606 | 606 | 557 | |
| Impairments | 415 | 415 | - | |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 2 569 | (415) | 2 154 | 2 618 |
| Net financial items | 15 | 15 | (53) | |
| Profit/loss before taxes | 2 583 | (415) | 2 168 | 2 565 |
| Tax (+) / Tax income (-) |
2 008 | (3) | 2 005 | 1 977 |
| Net profit / loss | 575 | (412) | 164 | 588 |
| EPS (USD) | 0.82 | (0.65) | 0.26 | 0.93 |
| Effective tax rate | 78 % | 1 % | 92 % | 77 % |
Oil and gas sales
\$82 per boe (84)
Net realised price
\$6.2 per boe (6.0)
Production cost
92% (77%)
Effective tax rate
| Q4-23 | Q3-23 | Q2-23 | Q1-23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow before tax | 3 710 | 2 963 | 2 938 | 3 251 |
| Taxes paid | (2 207) | (862) | (2 817) | (1 569) |
| Cash flow – operations |
1 503 | 2 101 | 121 | 1 682 |
| Cash flow – investments |
(1 042) | (944) | (776) | (705) |
| Free cash flow | 461 | 1 157 | (655) | 977 |
| Net debt drawn/repaid | (0) | (2) | 488 | - |
| Dividends | (348) | (348) | (348) | (348) |
| Interest, leasing & misc. | (85) | (138) | (75) | (106) |
| Cash flow – financing |
(433) | (488) | 66 | (454) |
| Net change in cash | 28 | 669 | (589) | 523 |
| Cash at end of period | 3 388 | 3 375 | 2 689 | 3 280 |
\$0.5bn (1.2) Free cash flow (FCF)
FCF per share
\$0.55 (0.55)
Dividend per share
| Assets | 31.12.23 | 30.09.23 | 31.12.22 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP&E | 17 450 | 16 123 | 15 887 |
| Goodwill | 13 143 | 13 554 | 13 935 |
| Other non-current assets |
3 314 | 3 166 | 2 984 |
| Cash and equivalent | 3 388 | 3 375 | 2 756 |
| Other current assets | 1 751 | 1 909 | 2 000 |
| Total Assets |
39 047 | 38 127 | 37 562 |
| Equity and liabilities | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | 12 362 | 12 524 | 12 428 |
| Financial debt | 5 798 | 5 754 | 5 279 |
| Deferred taxes | 10 592 | 10 182 | 9 359 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 4 861 | 4 090 | 4 248 |
| Tax payable | 3 600 | 4 070 | 5 084 |
| Other current liabilities | 1 833 | 1 509 | 1 164 |
| Total Equity and liabilities |
39 047 | 38 127 | 37 562 |
\$6.8bn (\$6.8)
Total available liquidity
Equity ratio
Leverage ratio1
1) Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing
Aker BP's financial frame – designed to drive value creation and shareholder return
USD 1,500 million in new Senior Notes issued
USD 1,800 million Forward Start Bank Facility signed
Net interest-bearing debt Excl. leases, USD billion
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 3.7 2.2 2.5 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.4 Q4-20 Q2-21 Q4-21 Q2-22 Q4-22 Q2-23 Q4-23 Leverage ratio1 Targeting below 1.5 over time
Q4-20 Q2-21 Q4-21 Q2-22 Q4-22 Q2-23 Q4-23
Liquidity available2 USD billion
Cash and cash equivalents Undrawn bank facilities
Investment grade credit ratings
1) Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing 2) Liquidity available: undrawn bank facilities and cash and cash equivalents BBB Baa2 BBB
Projects to lift Aker BP's production by 250-300 mboepd in 2028
mboepd
\$35-40/bbl
Project portfolio break-even oil price1
~25%
Project portfolio IRR at \$65/bbl oil price
1-2 years
Project portfolio payback at \$65/bbl oil price
In an investment-friendly tax system
In the investment phase, taxes paid are significantly lower than tax expense in the P&L
▪ Note: this is for illustrative purposes only and is not company guiding
USD million
2 500
Dividends USD per share
| 2023 actuals |
2024 guidance |
|
|---|---|---|
| Production (mboped) | 457 | 410-440 |
| Opex (USD/boe) | 6.2 | ~7.0 |
| Capex (USDbn) | 3.3 | ~5.0 |
| Expex (USDbn) |
0.36 | ~0.5 |
| Abex (USDbn) |
0.16 | ~0.25 |
Return maximum value to shareholders and society
www.akerbp.com
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