AI Terminal

MODULE: AI_ANALYST
Interactive Q&A, Risk Assessment, Summarization
MODULE: DATA_EXTRACT
Excel Export, XBRL Parsing, Table Digitization
MODULE: PEER_COMP
Sector Benchmarking, Sentiment Analysis
SYSTEM ACCESS LOCKED
Authenticate / Register Log In

Aker BP

Investor Presentation Feb 8, 2024

3528_rns_2024-02-08_51e4469e-35d9-45c5-94e9-eca3d8bf1f2e.pdf

Investor Presentation

Open in Viewer

Opens in native device viewer

Q4 and full-year 2023 & strategy update

8 February 2024 Aker BP ASA

Disclaimer

This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.

These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business.

These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions.

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document.

Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document.

Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.

2023 highlights

  • Strong performance delivering on targets
  • Development projects on track
  • Exploration success
  • Leading the way in low GHG emissions
  • Financially strong & growing dividends

2023 operational improvements

Increasing production…

1,000 barrels oil equivalent per day (mboepd)1

…reducing production cost… USD per boe1

8.3

12.4

…while decarbonising our business

Aker BP emission intensity, kg CO2e per boe

2.8

2023 key financials

5

2023 deliverables

Original
1
guidance
Latest
2
guidance
Actual
2023
Production 430 455 457
mboped -460 -465
Production cost 7.0 6.0 6.2
USD/boe -8.0 -6.5
Capex 3.0 3.0 3.3
USD billion -3.5 -3.5
Exploration 0.4 0.4 0.36
USD billion -0.5 -0.5
Abandonment
USD billion
0.1
-0.2
~0.2 0.16

Aker BP's improvement programme

Strategic alliances

One-team culture with our main suppliers based on common goals and shared incentives

Lean operations

Framework for developing more efficient work processes

Flexible business models

Re-thinking how we structure our interactions with suppliers and business partners

Digitalisation

Essential enabler for building the E&P company of the future

Our strategic priorities

Ambition to lead the industry transformation as the E&P company of the future

Return maximum value to our shareholders and our society

Operate safely and efficiently

World-class oil and gas portfolio

Large scale, low risk assets on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

Safety

Injury frequency (TRIF)1 Serious incident frequency (SIF)1

1) TRIF and SIF in prior years have been restated to reflect a more accurate methodology for measurement of exposure hours. See Quarterly report Q4 2023 for details.

Production

Oil & gas production per area 1,000 mboepd

Johan Sverdrup

Daily oil production since start-up

A giant field with excellent reservoir properties

  • Excellent operational performance
  • Stable production at elevated capacity level
  • Continuously working to optimise production

Aker BP holds 31.6% ownership in the Johan Sverdrup partnership operated by Equinor Copyright Equinor

Production efficiency

Increased production uptime

Rolling 12m, operated assets only

Low-cost operations

Total operational cost1

USD per boe, 2023e

1) Source Wood Mackenzie. Companies included: Aker BP, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, DNO, Eni, EOG Resources, Equinor, ExxonMobil, , Galp Energia, Harbour Energy, Hess Corp., Marathon Oil, OKEA, Pioneer, Shell, TotalEnergies, , Tullow Oil, Vår Energi.

Future operations – modernising and digitalising the way we work

Integration of new concepts

New ways of working

Integrated Operation Centres

Data-driven decisions

New cooperation models

Increased digital Automation competence for all

Remote operations and maintenance

16

Decarbonise our business

Aker BP's decarbonisation strategy

Reducing absolute scope 1&2 GHG emissions before neutralising residual emissions

Scope 1&2 Scope 3
Avoid Reduce Neutralise Upstream scope 3
reduction through
procurement
Electrification of Active energy Carbon removal Support new industries
and drive technology
development
greenfield assets
and portfolio
management
management and
brownfield
electrification
offsets for hard
to-abate
emissions
Explore potential of CCS
Create value through decarbonisation

Aker BP's targets

    1. Reduce operated scope 1&2 GHG emissions with 50% by 2030 and ~100% by 2050
    1. Net zero equity share scope 1&2 emissions by 2030
    1. World-class equity share scope 1&2 GHG intensity <4 kg CO2e/boe
    1. World-class methane intensity <0.05 %

140 Aker BP – a global leader in low CO2 emissions

0 20 40 60 80 100 Net emission intensity 2023 kg CO2e per boe, equity share 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

285 largest producing upstream companies

Targeting net zero scope 1&2 emissions by 2030

Aker BP to offset all our remaining emissions using high-quality carbon removal projects

Total estimated equity share scope 1&2 emissions 1 000 tonnes CO2e

Our approach

Avoid

New assets with power from shore Target 100% electrification

Reduce

Continued energy efficiency 2% annual reduction target

Neutralise residual emissions

High quality carbon offsets Removal only, strict verification criteria

Deliver high -return projects on quality, time and cost

Aker BP project overview

770 mmboe net oil and gas volume at net capex of around USD 3 billion after tax

Asset area Field development Aker BP
ownership
Gross/net volume Net capex estimate PDO submission Production
start
Frosk 80.0% 10/8 mmboe USD 0.2bn 2021 2023
Alvheim Kobra
East & Gekko
80.0% 50/40 mmboe USD 0.9bn 2021 2023
Tyrving 61.3% 25/15 mmboe USD 0.4bn 2022 2025
Hanz 35.0% 20/7 mmboe USD 0.2bn 2021 2024
Edvard Grieg &
Ivar Aasen
Symra 50.0% USD 1.3bn Dec-22 20261)
Solveig Phase II 65.0% 87/49 mmboe 2026
Alve
North
68.1% 119/51 mmboe USD 1.0bn Dec-22 2027
Skarv Idun
North
23.8% 2027
Ørn 30.0% 2027
Valhall
PWP
90.0% USD 5.5bn Dec-22 2027
Valhall Fenris 77.8% 230/187 mmboe 2027
Yggdrasil2) Hugin 87.7% 2027
Munin 50.0% 650/413 mmboe USD 10.7bn Dec-22 2027
Fulla 47.7% 2027

Our key principles for successful project execution

Competence and learning

  • Continuity
  • Common goals and incentives

Partnerships Standardisation Frontloading

Well designs and equipmentTopside and subsea equipmentFacilitate efficient operations

  • Early planning and maturation
  • Supplier involvement
  • Secured yard and rig capacity

Alliances with leading suppliers – with proven track record

The cornerstone of project planning and execution

Alliances established with leading suppliers

  • Covering majority of capital spend
  • Subsea, Fixed Facilities, Modifications and Drilling
  • One team Common goals Shared incentives

Proven track record of alliance model since 2016

  • 16 subsea tie-backs
  • Two fixed platforms
  • More than 100 wells completed
  • Significant modifications scope

Key benefits

  • Access to capacity and competence
  • Improved efficiency
  • Drive continuous improvement

Project execution on track

Good progress in the first year since PDOs

  • Key milestones achieved on schedule
  • Main contracts placed and capacity secured
  • Fabrication underway at multiple locations
  • Sub-sea and drilling scope progressing well
  • Total capex estimate in line with plans

Developments to drive growth and value creation

Planning to produce around 525 mboepd in 2028

Production outlook

mboepd

Our project portfolio

  • Net resources of 770 mmboe
  • The projects lift Aker BP's production by 250-300 mboepd in 2028
  • Low CO2 emission intensity
  • Full-cycle portfolio break even oil price of USD 35-40 per barrel1
  • Average payback time of 1-2 years2

Yggdrasil

New North Sea area hub by joining forces across licences

Gas ~40% of
estimated volumes
Aker BP
(operator)
Hugin: 87.7%
Munin: 50.0%
Fulla: 47.7%
Power supply
from shore
Munin Partners Equinor and
PGNiG
Upstream Norway
A new digital
standard
Unmanned production platform
Hugin A
Production, drilling & quarters
Hugin B
Volume estimate 650 mmboe (gross) /
413 mmboe (net)
55 wells Normally unmanned installation Net capex estimate
(nominal)
USD 10.7 bn
Significant additional
volume potential
Production start est. 2027

Valhall PWP-Fenris

Unlocks new volumes and secures life-time extension on Valhall

Skarv Satellites

Subsea

Drilling

Investments in future flexibility enabling further area development

Alve N

Utsira High projects

Increased capacity utilisation at Ivar Aasen and Edvard Grieg platforms

Alvheim projects

Unlocks new volumes, reduces unit cost and secures life-time extension on Alvheim

Establish the next wave of profitable growth options

Growth through M&A and projects

Transactions + 18 organic development projects

33

Our exploration strategy

Uniquely positioned on the NCS

  • 2 nd largest in Norway with over 200 licences
  • Operator of ~70%
  • 27 licences awarded in APA 2023 all-time high

Targeting net 250 mmboe from 2022 to 2027

  • Drill 10-15 exploration wells per year
  • 80% near-field 20% in new areas

New ways of working

  • Technology driving efficiency and exploration success
  • Data gathering and processing speed multiplied

2023 – another year of successful exploration

Significant oil discovery in the Yggdrasil area

Discovery at Frigg East

  • Current volume estimate of 53-90 mmboe gross
  • Increases the resource base for Yggdrasil
  • Highly profitable with break-even well below \$20/bbl

Partner in several other discoveries

  • Carmen, Ofelia, Norma
  • Finding cost below \$1/boe
  • 2/3 on the way towards 2027 target of 250 mmboe

2024 exploration program

Licence Prospect Operator Aker BP
share
Pre-drill
mmboe
Status
PL102G Trell North Aker BP 61% 3
-
12
Drilling
PL1138 Ametyst Harbour Energy 30% 23
-
116
Drilling
PL956 Ringhornet Ty Vår Energi 20% 7
-
27
Drilling
PL442 FGD/Ypsilon Aker BP 88% 9
-
22
Q1
PL1182S Kjøttkake DNO 30% 19
-
42
Q2
PL1185 Kvernbit Equinor 20% 9
-
64
Q2
PL203 Alvheim Deep Aker BP 80% 24
-
159
Q2
PL261 Storjo West Aker BP 70% 4
-
32
Q2
PL1170 Ferdinand Aker BP 35% 31
-
65
Q2
PL1170 Hassel Aker BP 35% 27
-
47
Q2
PL554 Garantiana Skrustikke Equinor 30% 26
-
99
Q2
PL869 Rumpetroll South Aker BP 80% 10
-
45
Q3
PL932 Kaldafjell Aker BP 40% 12
-
140
Q3
PL110 Njargasas Aker BP 55% 23
-
120
Q4
PL1131 Elgol Vår Energi 20% 27
-
180
Q4
PL942 Kongeørn Aker BP 30% 5
-
39
Q4

Significant upside potential around existing assets

Reserves and resources

billion boe

Return maximum value to shareholders and society

2023 financials in brief

Operating cash flow 20.4 USD/share

Tax paid 11.8 USD/share

Free cash flow 3.1 USD/share Financial capacity 6.8 USD billion

Dividend 2.2 USD/share Leverage ratio 0.2

Free cash flow: Net cash flow after tax from operating activities less net cash flow from investment activities Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing

Q4 2023 - Sales of oil and gas

Volume sold mboepd

Realised prices USD/boe

Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23

Liquids Natural gas

Total income USD million

Income statement

USD million

Q3 2023
Before impairment Impairments Actual Actual
Total income 3 556 3 556 3 513
Production costs 298 298 252
Other operating expenses 17 17 12
EBITDAX 3 241 3 241 3 249
Exploration expenses 67 67 74
EBITDA 3 174 3 174 3 174
Depreciation 606 606 557
Impairments 415 415 -
Operating profit (EBIT) 2 569 (415) 2 154 2 618
Net financial items 15 15 (53)
Profit/loss before taxes 2 583 (415) 2 168 2 565
Tax
(+) / Tax income (-)
2 008 (3) 2 005 1 977
Net profit / loss 575 (412) 164 588
EPS (USD) 0.82 (0.65) 0.26 0.93
Effective tax rate 78 % 1 % 92 % 77 %

467 mboepd (450)

Oil and gas sales

\$82 per boe (84)

Net realised price

\$6.2 per boe (6.0)

Production cost

92% (77%)

Effective tax rate

Cash flow

USD million

Q4-23 Q3-23 Q2-23 Q1-23
Operating cash flow before tax 3 710 2 963 2 938 3 251
Taxes paid (2 207) (862) (2 817) (1 569)
Cash flow –
operations
1 503 2 101 121 1 682
Cash flow –
investments
(1 042) (944) (776) (705)
Free cash flow 461 1 157 (655) 977
Net debt drawn/repaid (0) (2) 488 -
Dividends (348) (348) (348) (348)
Interest, leasing & misc. (85) (138) (75) (106)
Cash flow –
financing
(433) (488) 66 (454)
Net change in cash 28 669 (589) 523
Cash at end of period 3 388 3 375 2 689 3 280

\$0.5bn (1.2) Free cash flow (FCF)

\$0.73(1.83)

FCF per share

\$0.55 (0.55)

Dividend per share

Balance sheet

USD million

Assets 31.12.23 30.09.23 31.12.22
PP&E 17 450 16 123 15 887
Goodwill 13 143 13 554 13 935
Other non-current
assets
3 314 3 166 2 984
Cash and equivalent 3 388 3 375 2 756
Other current assets 1 751 1 909 2 000
Total
Assets
39 047 38 127 37 562
Equity and liabilities
Equity 12 362 12 524 12 428
Financial debt 5 798 5 754 5 279
Deferred taxes 10 592 10 182 9 359
Other long-term liabilities 4 861 4 090 4 248
Tax payable 3 600 4 070 5 084
Other current liabilities 1 833 1 509 1 164
Total
Equity and liabilities
39 047 38 127 37 562

\$6.8bn (\$6.8)

Total available liquidity

32% (33%)

Equity ratio

0.19 (0.19)

Leverage ratio1

1) Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing

Capital allocation priorities

Aker BP's financial frame – designed to drive value creation and shareholder return

Continuously optimising our capital structure

Financing transactions in 2023

USD 1,500 million in new Senior Notes issued

  • USD 500 million Notes due in 2028
  • USD 1,000 million Notes due in 2033
  • USD ~1,000 million in existing bonds repurchased
  • 2025 and 2026 maturities

USD 1,800 million Forward Start Bank Facility signed

  • Active from 2026, maturing in 2028, options to extend to 2030
  • Opportunity to increase up to USD 2,500 million

Bond maturities USD/EUR billion

Maintaining financial flexibility

Net interest-bearing debt Excl. leases, USD billion

3.4 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 3.7 2.2 2.5 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.4 Q4-20 Q2-21 Q4-21 Q2-22 Q4-22 Q2-23 Q4-23 Leverage ratio1 Targeting below 1.5 over time

Q4-20 Q2-21 Q4-21 Q2-22 Q4-22 Q2-23 Q4-23

Liquidity available2 USD billion

Cash and cash equivalents Undrawn bank facilities

Investment grade credit ratings

1) Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing 2) Liquidity available: undrawn bank facilities and cash and cash equivalents BBB Baa2 BBB

Grow production with robust high return projects

Projects to lift Aker BP's production by 250-300 mboepd in 2028

Production outlook

mboepd

Robust and profitable project portfolio

\$35-40/bbl

Project portfolio break-even oil price1

~25%

Project portfolio IRR at \$65/bbl oil price

1-2 years

Project portfolio payback at \$65/bbl oil price

Investing in robust and profitable projects

In an investment-friendly tax system

Aker BP est. capex before and after tax USD billion

  • Total capex estimate 2023-2028 in line with plans presented one year ago
  • Minor adjustments to capex phasing between years
  • ~85% of the planned capex is related to projects subject to the temporary tax system with 86.9% tax deduction
  • The rest is subject to ordinary tax system with 78% tax deduction

The tax system is highly supportive for investments

In the investment phase, taxes paid are significantly lower than tax expense in the P&L

Illustrative1 tax calculations Aker BP 2023 - 2028 USD billion

  • Relatively low tax payments in periods with high investments
  • Especially prominent in low oil price scenarios
  • An illustrative tax calculation example
  • Tax calculation model employed1 (available at www.akerbp.com/investor)

▪ Note: this is for illustrative purposes only and is not company guiding

Near-term tax payments

Sensitivity for H2-2024

USD million

2 500

Tax instalments for fiscal year 2023

  • Tax for the year is paid in six bimonthly instalments with six months delay
  • Q1-24 and Q2-24 instalments now fixed based on full-year 2023 performance

Assumptions for H2-24 sensitivity analysis

  • Gas prices assumed at USD 11 per mmbtu
  • USDNOK rate assumed at 10.0
  • Three oil price scenarios illustrated (average for 2024)

Strong and resilient cash flow as basis for dividend growth

Aker BP value creation plan 2023-2028 USD billion, accumulated

Dividends USD per share

  • Low-cost production gives resilient dividend capacity
  • Distributions shall reflect the capacity through the cycle
  • 9% dividend growth in 2024
  • Ambition to grow dividend by minimum 5% per year

2024 guidance

2023
actuals
2024
guidance
Production (mboped) 457 410-440
Opex (USD/boe) 6.2 ~7.0
Capex (USDbn) 3.3 ~5.0
Expex
(USDbn)
0.36 ~0.5
Abex
(USDbn)
0.16 ~0.25

Summary – Executing on our strategic priorities

Return maximum value to shareholders and society

www.akerbp.com

Talk to a Data Expert

Have a question? We'll get back to you promptly.