Veidekke

Earnings Release • Oct 15, 2024

Veidekke: Sees light at the end of the tunnel for the Scandinavian contracting markets

Veidekke: Sees light at the end of the tunnel for the Scandinavian contracting markets

The negative trends which have characterised Veidekke's contracting markets for

the last couple of years are expected to turn in 2025, with the strongest demand

likely to be seen in the transport infrastructure segment, defence and the water

supply, sewerage and energy sectors.

"Although we expect market activity levels to remain flat into the first half of

2025, we are seeing signs of a positive shift in several key drivers of the

downturn. Figures from macroeconomic forecasting bodies suggest a return to more

normal inflation levels, falling interest rates and a generally strong economic

outlook for all three Scandinavian countries," says Kristoffer Eide Hoen,

Director of business development and analysis at Veidekke.

Veidekke anticipates 1% growth in the Scandinavian contracting markets in 2025,

and 7% growth in 2026. This follows estimated drops of 14% in 2024 and 3% in

The decline in market activity levels in recent years is an expected after

-effect of strong cost inflation and interest-rate rises in 2022. Due to lengthy

construction periods, it takes one to two years before such developments impact

actual construction-industry activity levels, as can currently be observed in

e.g. the sharp drops in residential project numbers.

"The downturn in Norway lagged three to four quarters behind developments in

Sweden and Denmark, which have also shown earlier signs of recovery. In Norway,

the downturn has been prolonged by generally higher interest rates and delayed

cuts to the key policy rate," explains Kristoffer Eide Hoen.

The proposals presented in Norway's and Sweden's draft national budgets for 2025

confirm the impression of a positive outlook for the infrastructure sector. In

the transport infrastructure segment, high newbuild activity is accompanied by

increased investment in road and railway maintenance. Future growth markets are

expected to be the water supply, sewerage and energy infrastructure sectors, as

well as defence. As expected, the draft budgets provide for significantly

increased defence spending. Currently, few details are available on how

increased funding for defence-related construction and civil engineering

projects will be allocated, but this is expected to become clearer in the year

ahead.

Despite a general drop in construction cost inflation, uncertainty still

attaches to certain input factors with close ties to climate adaptation. For

example, fly ash - which is used in the manufacture of concrete - has become

much more expensive following the closure of coal-fired power stations in

Europe. Both in the Nordic region and in other parts of Europe, ongoing bark

beetle infestation has triggered a renewed rise in timber prices, despite

falling construction activity. Although the primary scenario remains one of low

inflation, account must be taken of increased risks related to the supply and

cost of key input factors.

For more information, contact:

Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Director of business development and analysis, Veidekke

ASA, +47 976 75 434, Kristoffer.Eide.Hoen@veidekke.no

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Veidekke is one of Scandinavia's largest contractors. In addition to undertaking

all types of building and civil engineering assignments, the group also

maintains roads and produces asphalt and aggregates. Veidekke emphasises

stakeholder involvement and local experience. Its annual turnover is

approximately NOK 43 billion, and half of its 8,000 employees own shares in the

company. Veidekke is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange, and has posted a profit

every year since its inception in 1936.