Investor Presentation • Mar 18, 2016
Investor Presentation
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The like for like change of written premiums, life net inflows, APE and NBV is on equivalent terms (on equivalent exchange rates and consolidation area).
Gabriele Galateri di Genola – Chairman
Alberto Minali – Group CFO
I. Business Overview
Gabriele Galateri di Genola – Chairman page 4
Further profitability improvements despite weak external context
Further strong momentum from 2014
Strong financials provide sound basis for further growth
Operating RoE 14.0%
Best in class profitability Strong growth in cashflow Sound solvency position + +
Net operating cash flow +30% YoY to €1.6bn
202% solvency ratio under internal model
Proposal for 2015: €0.72 per share (+20%) On track to achieve target of €5bn cumulatively by 2018
Fast, Lean, Agile
Simple & Smart
Leveraging on technology & partnerships
Cash Generation > €7bn (cumulative 2015-2018) c. 50% more cash than FY14 starting point 30% growth in FY15 to €1.6bn
Dividends > €5bn (cumulative 2015-2018)
Cost savings totalling €1.5bn by 2018(2) Fully on track to achieve targets
Operating RoE > 13% on average
(1) Based on closing share price on 15 March 2016
(2) Since programme commencement in 2013
Maintained commitment to attractive returns 14.0% achieved in 2015
Profit & Loss and Balance Sheet page 9
Business review page 25
| FY14 | FY15 | D | 4Q14 | 4Q15 | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating result (Euro m) | 4,508 | 4,785 | +6.1% | 840 | 946 | +12.5% |
| Operating RoE | 13.2% | 14.0% | +0.8%pts | 2.3% | 2.5% | +0.2%pts |
| Net result (Euro m) | 1,670 | 2,030 | +21.6% | 81 | 304 | n.m. |
| EPS (Euro) | 1.07 | 1.30 | +21.6% | 0.05 | 0.20 | n.m. |
| Shareholders' equity | 23,204 | 23,565 | +1.5% | |||
| Net operating cash generation (Parent view, Euro bn) |
1.2 | 1.6 | +30% | |||
| Solvency II ratio (internal model view) (%) | 186% | 202% | +16%pts. |
Strong development, driven by organic capital generation
(1) Eligible Own Funds in excess of Solvency Capital Requirement (full internal model view)
Solvency position able to withstand significant market stresses
Eligible own funds vs. Required capital (Internal model view, Euro bn)
Generali Own Funds structure(1)
| Solvency II Limits | € bn |
% of total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unrestricted Tier 1 | Unlimited | Tier 1 | 32.2 | 78% |
| Restricted Tier 1 (Hybrid) |
<20% of Total Tier 1 | 4.6 | 11% | |
| Total Tier 1 |
36.8 | 89% | ||
| Tier 2 (Hybrid) |
Tier 2 + Tier 3 <50% SCR |
Tier 2 | 4.5 | 11% |
| Tier 3 | <15% SCR | Tier 3 | 0.1 | 0% |
| Total Own Funds |
41.3 | 100% |
(1) Based on Internal Model View. Difference to own funds under provisional Regulatory view is approximately €0.5bn, related to unrestricted T1
CFO – Solvency 2
CFO – Solvency 2
| Scope | For all material insurance operations, Own Funds and SCR are calculated using internal model |
|---|---|
| For other business, (e.g. Banking, French IORP), solvency is calculated under applicable regulatory regime |
|
| Operational risk | Capital charge of operational risk is based on Standard Formula, but allowance is made for diversification of Operational Risk with other risks |
| Sovereign risk | Capital charges for default, credit rating migration and spread risk applied for all sovereigns (domestic and non domestic) |
| Dynamic volatility adjuster |
Dynamic VA calculated according to EIOPA formula, with specific assumptions about reference portfolio based on Generali's exposures |
| SCR loss absorbing capacity of deferred tax |
SCR loss absorbing capacity is limited to the existing net deferred tax liabilities already recognised in the Solvency II balance sheet |
| Allowance for tax group consolidation for entities as permitted by local tax regulation |
|
| Risk margin | 6% cost of capital added to best estimate liability in line with EIOPA guidance |
| Transitional measures | No use of transitional measures |
| Grandfathering | Grandfathering rules applied to our existing Tier 1 and Tier 2 bonds (excluding Euro 1.25 bn Tier 2 issued in October 2015, which is Solvency 2 compliant) |
| Fungibility | Surplus Funds in excess of entity's contribution to Group SCR, and minority interests in excess of their SCR coverage are the key adjustments |
Partial internal model approved as expected. Progressive approval of remaining business
FY15 SCR, Regulatory view (Split by calculation basis)
(1) Including operational risk of the entities in in the Internal Model application scope
(1) Net Operating Result = Operating profit by country, after deduction of taxes at normal national rates, and minority interest. (2) Excluding parent company reinsurance result
© Generali March 18, 2016 Results 2015
Dividends paid by subsidiaries 1.7
Result of reinsurance 0.3
Interest & holding expenses
Net Operating Cash generation 1.2
| Coverage ratio |
1.4x | 1.5x |
|---|---|---|
| Group dividend paid / proposed | 0.9 | 1.1 |
2014
2.0
2015
0.3
(0.7)
1.6
(0.8)
(431) (305) 23,204 2,030 (934) 23,565 Shareholders' Equity FY14 Δ in AFS Reserve FY 2014 Net Results Dividend Other Shareholders' Equity FY15 Change in AFS reserve +1.5% Equities -20% Interest rate +50bps Interest rate -50bps Credit spread +100bps -1.0 -1.8 -1.0 Shareholders' equity rollforward (Euro bn) (Euro bn) (Euro bn) 37 (575) 6,498 107 6,067 AFS Reserve FY14 Impact Bond Investment Impact Equity Investments Other AFS Reserve FY15
Shareholders' equity sensitivities
1.6
Our stock of unrealised gains has been protected
(2) Main peers include: Allianz, AXA, Zurich
Generali Main peers
(2)
(1)
Our asset mix is conservative (only 3% in listed equities), as it is our other exposure to "hot" sectors
Profit & Loss and Balance Sheet page 9
Business review page 25
(Euro m)
| FY14 | FY15 | LFL D | 4Q14 | 4Q15 | LFL D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premiums | 49,813 | 53,297 | +6.2% | 14,202 | 14,873 | +4.1% |
| Net inflows | 12,747 | 14,920 | +15.5% | 3,727 | 3,912 | +3.4% |
| Life operating result | 2,978 | 2,965 | -0.4% | 727 | 627 | -13.8% |
| Life operating ratio on investments (bps) | 81 | 74 | -7 | 19 | 16 | -3 |
| APE | 5,163 | 5,210 | -0.2% | 1,497 | 1,425 | -5.0% |
| New Business Value |
1,239 | 1,097 | -13.0% | 305 | 340 | +10.8% |
| Margin on APE (%) | 24.0% | 21.0% | -3.1%pts. | 20.4% | 23.8% | +3.4%pts. |
(Euro m)
| FY 15 | 5,909 | 2,260 | (5,204) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 14 | 5,532 | 2,240 | (4,795) |
| D % | +6.8% | +0.9% | +8.5% |
Excellent technical margin thanks to all sources of profit
Expense result mainly reflecting higher volumes
FY14 FY15 Italy 5,699 7,646 France 615 1,147 Germany 2,958 2,997 CEE 425 589 EMEA 2,703 1,444 Americas 118 142 Asia 197 924 International 32 31 TOTAL 12,747 14,920 (Euro m)
(1) Including liabilities related to investment contracts
6.4%
| Euro m | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY14 | 9,588 | 3.6 | |
| Fixed income | FY15 | 9,877 | 3.4 |
| Equity | FY14 | 449 | 3.5 |
| FY15 | 416 | 3.0 | |
| Real Estate(1) | FY14 | 547 | 5.6 |
| FY15 | 526 | 5.5 | |
| Total(1) | FY14 | 10,907 | 3.6 |
| FY15 | 11,112 | 3.4 |
(1) Net of depreciation expenses
| (Euro m) | APE | NBV | MARGIN ON APE | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY14 | FY15 | LFL D | FY14 | FY15 | LFL D | FY14 | FY15 | LFL D | ||
| Italy | 2,492 | 2,322 | -6.8% | 641 | 589 | -8.0% | 25.7% | 25.4% | -0.3%pts. | |
| France | 817 | 944 | +16.0% | 89 | 62 | -30.1% | 10.9% | 6.5% | -4.3%pts. | |
| Germany | 862 | 826 | -5.0% | 265 | 191 | -28.7% | 30.7% | 23.1% | -7.7%pts. | |
| CEE | 148 | 165 | -3.2% | 49 | 39 | -30.2% | 32.8% | 23.7% | -9.2%pts. | |
| EMEA | 684 | 645 | -7.2% | 177 | 174 | -6.4% | 25.9% | 27.0% | 0.2%pts. | |
| Americas & Asia | 159 | 308 | +71.2% | 19 | 42 | +88.6% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 1.3%pts. | |
| TOTAL | 5,163 | 5,210 | -0.2% | 1,239 | 1,097 | -13.0% | 24.0% | 21.0% | -3.1%pts. |
(Euro m)
| FY14 | FY15 | LFL D | 4Q14 | 4Q15 | LFL D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premiums, of which: | 20,617 | 20,868 | +0.8% | 5,053 | 5,093 | +1.1% |
| Primary Motor | 8,062 | 8,129 | +0.2% | 1,743 | 1,796 | +4.0% |
| Primary Non Motor | 11,859 | 12,009 | +1.1% | 3,111 | 3,094 | -0.6% |
| Combined ratio (%) |
93.8% | 93.1% | -0.6%pts. | 94.8% | 94.5% | -0.2%pts. |
| Nat Cat impact (%) | 1.2% | 1.6% | +0.4%pts. | 1.3% | 1.6% | +0.3%pts. |
| P&C operating result | 1,831 | 1,987 | +8.5% | 300 | 382 | +27.3% |
(Euro m)
FY 14 1,082 1,007 (258) D % +12.2% +0.8% -6.2%
| FY14 | FY15 | LFL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 6,132 | 5,947 | -3.0% |
| France | 2,545 | 2,538 | -0.3% |
| Germany | 3,547 | 3,608 | +1.7% |
| CEE | 1,884 | 1,976 | +4.6% |
| EMEA | 4,246 | 4,410 | +1.8% |
| Americas | 1,057 | 1,156 | +7.3% |
| Asia | 103 | 128 | +22.5% |
| International | 1,102 | 1,106 | +3.9% |
| Total | 20,617 | 20,868 | +0.8% |
(%)
| FY14 | FY15 | LFL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 89.2% | 89.1% | -0.2%pts. |
| France | 104.9% | 100.2% | -4.7%pts. |
| Germany | 92.6% | 92.4% | -0.2%pts. |
| CEE | 87.7% | 90.1% | +2.4%pts. |
| EMEA | 95.5% | 95.2% | -0.3%pts. |
| Americas | 113.3% | 106.1% | -7.2%pts. |
| Asia | 97.6% | 94.4% | -3.2%pts. |
| International Operations |
83.7% | 85.9% | +2.2%pts. |
| Total | 93.8% | 93.1% | -0.6%pts. |
(Euro m)
| FY14 | FY15 | | 4Q14 | 4Q15 | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial | 374 | 434 | +16.0% | 82 | 115 | +39.6% |
| of which Banca Generali(1) | 221 | 252 | +14.0% | 44 | 47 | +7.0% |
| Operating holding expenses | (418) | (429) | +2.6% | (128) | (71) | -44.4% |
| Other businesses(2) | 40 | 55 | +37.4% | (47) | (40) | -14.0% |
| Total | (5) | 59 | n.m. | (92) | 4 | n.m. |
(1) Banca Generali's operating contribution as per Generali's view
(2) Including pure financial holdings, international service activities and any other non-core businesses
Operating RoE up to 14%; Net Result up 22%
Net operating cash generation up 30% to €1.6bn
Strong and resilient capital: S-II internal model at 202%
20% increase in dividend, to €0.72
| • Cost |
39 page |
|---|---|
| Investments | 42 page |
| Financial debt | 48 page |
| Life EV | 51 page |
| Solvency 2 | 55 page |
Group operating expense development (OpEx view) (Euro bn)
| Cost | 39 page |
|
|---|---|---|
| • | Investments | 42 page |
| Financial debt | 48 page |
|
| Life EV | 51 page |
|
| Solvency 2 | 55 page |
| Total Portfolio Euro 328 bn (%) |
Covered Euro 29 bn (%) |
Corporate Euro 105 bn (%) |
Government (%) |
Euro 163 bn(1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4 | 1 5 |
1 4 12 |
6 | 0 2 13 |
||||
| Other fixed Income |
9.0 | 10 1 |
||||||
| Covered | 17.4 | 19 | 64 | 33 | 48 | 33 | ||
| Corporate non fin. | 14.4 | 43 | 4 | |||||
| Corporate fin. | AAA | AA | A | BBB | Not Investment Grade | Not Rated | ||
| Bond duration | FY14 | FY15 | ||||||
| Government | 49.8 | Life | 8.2 | 8.0 | ||||
| P&C | 4.6 | 5.0 | ||||||
| Life duration | Gap(2) | FY14 | FY15 | |||||
| -1.0 | -1.0 |
(1) Italian government bond exposure is 81% of BBB
(2) Duration gap = duration of fixed income assets – duration of liabilities x (Best estimate liabilities/Market Value of fixed income assets)
49.8 14.4 17.4 9.0 9.4 Other fixed Income Covered Corporate non fin. Corporate fin. Government Total Portfolio Euro 328 bn (%)
4
Alternative funds: Euro 5 bn (%)
82
Total Portfolio: Euro 18 bn
Equity: Euro 10 bn (%)
(1) Data, at fair value, includes investment properties, own use assets and properties inventory (2) Detail referred to direct investments in real estate only
| FY14 | FY15 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Unrealised Gains and Losses (UGL) | 5,437 | 5,728 | |||
| Shareholders' share of UGL (after P/H share, tax & minorities) |
3,444 | 3,614 |
| Cost | 39 page |
|
|---|---|---|
| Investments | 42 page |
|
| • | Financial debt | 48 page |
| Life EV | 51 page |
|
| Solvency 2 | 55 page |
(1) The amount of financial debt as of 2014 December, 31, includes the subordinated bond issued in May 2014 for a nominal amount of € 1 bn to refinance part of the 2015 maturities
(2) The amount of financial debt as of 2015 December, 31, includes the subordinated bond issued in October 2015, for a nominal amount of Euro 1.25 bn, to refinance 2016 callable hybrid bonds
| Cost | 39 page |
|
|---|---|---|
| Investments | 42 page |
|
| Financial debt | 48 page |
|
| • | Life EV | 51 page |
| Solvency 2 | 55 page |
| Adjusted embedded value FY14 | 25,291 | 25.2% | RoEV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embedded value earnings | 6,375 | |||
| Normalised EV earnings(3) | 2,706 | 10.7% | Normalised RoEV |
(1) Calculated with methodology and assumptions compliant with "Market Consistent Embedded Value Principles" as defined by CFO Forum
(2) " Other variance " includes model changes, extraordinary expenses and residual variance
(3) "Normalised EV earnings" defined as NBV + Expected contribution + Operating variance
(1) Low capital intensity guarantees = no guarantees, matched, at maturity guarantees and yearly 0% guarantees
| • | Solvency 2 | 55 page |
|---|---|---|
| Life EV | 51 page |
|
| Financial debt | 48 page |
|
| Investments | 42 page |
|
| Cost | 39 page |
Backup: Solvency 2
(FY15, Euro bn, Internal model view)
Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements.
These expectations are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
The user of such information should recognise that actual results, performance or events may differ materially from such expectations because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond our control including, among other things, general economic and sector conditions.
Neither Assicurazioni Generali SpA nor any of its affiliates, directors, officers employees or agents owe any duty of care towards any user of the information provided herein nor any obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in this document.
The manager charged with preparing the company's financial reports, Alberto Minali, declares, pursuant to paragraph 2 of article 154 bis of the Consolidated Law on Financial Intermediation, that the accounting information contained in this presentation corresponds to document results, books and accounts records.
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Senior IR Manager [email protected] +39 040 671202
Senior IR Manager – Credit & Rating Agency Relations [email protected] +39 040 671347
IR Manager [email protected] +39 040 671488
IR Manager [email protected] +39 040 671823
Team Assistant & Event Manager [email protected] +39 040 671402
Team Assistant & Event Manager [email protected] +39 040 671548
P.za Duca degli Abruzzi 2 34132 Trieste, Italy
Fax: +39 040 671338 e-mail: [email protected]
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