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Banco BPM SpA

Investor Presentation Dec 3, 2018

4282_rns_2018-12-03_5b312e22-72a4-4a0b-837e-02519111d1be.pdf

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Strategic Update:

  • Partnership with Crédit Agricole
  • ACE Project

03 December 2018

DISCLAIMER

This presentation has been prepared by Banco BPM ("Banco BPM"); for the purposes of this notice, "presentation" means this document, any oral presentation, any question and answer session and any written or oral material discussed following the distribution of this document.

The distribution of this presentation in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law or regulation. Accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves of, and observe, these restrictions. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Banco BPM and its companies disclaim any responsibility or liability for the violation of such restrictions by any person.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of Banco BPM or any member of its group, nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscribe for any securities in Banco BPM or any member of its group, or any commitment whatsoever. This presentation and the information contained herein does not constitute an offer of securities in, the United States or to any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the "Securities Act"), as amended), Canada, Australia, Japan or any other jurisdiction where such offer is unlawful.

The information contained in this presentation is for background purposes only and is subject to amendment, revision and updating. Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements about Banco BPM. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forwardlooking statements are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates" and similar expressions. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.

Banco BPM does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.

None of Banco BPM, its subsidiaries or any of their respective members. Directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or otherwise arising in connection therewith.

By participating to this presentation and accepting a copy of it, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations regarding the information disclosed in this presentation.

***

This presentation includes both accounting data (based on financial accounts) and internal management data (which are also based on estimates).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Binding MoU aimed at strengthening the partnership of Banco BPM and Crédit Agricole in the consumer credit sector in Italy:
  • Generating a significant capital uplift for Banco BPM (c.+80bps), whilst maintaining the existing shareholding in Agos (39%)
  • Strengthening the partnership with Crédit Agricole, as well as Agos' leading position and market share in the sector
  • Massive derisking via ACE Project for a total nominal amount of Bad Loans up to €7.8bn, in addition to a potential €0.8bn leasing portfolio
  • In the event that the optimisation would lead to a range between € 7.0 bn and € 7.8 bn
  • the gross NPL ratio 30/09/2018 PF down to a range between ~ 11.3% / 10.6% -4.6pp / -5.2 pp vs. 30/09/18
  • the net NPL ratio 30/09/2018 PF down to a range between ~ 6.9% / 6.6%
  • the gross Bad Loan ratio 30/09/2018 PF down to a range between ~ 3.7% / 3.0%
  • the net Bad Loan ratio 30/09/2018 PF down to a range between ~ 1.6% / 1.2%
  • Healthy preservation of capital ratios: thanks to the benefits of the agreement in consumer credit, the FL CET1 ratio pro-forma is set to remain in the area of 11%-11.5%1 , even in case of NPL disposal for an amount at the top of the range

Note:

  1. Indicated on a pro-forma basis, with reference to the data as at 30/09/2018, including the estimated impact related to the strengthening of the Consumer Credit Business and to the ACE Project.

-5.0pp / -5.7 pp vs. 30/09/18

-1.7pp / -2.1 pp vs. 30/09/18

-1.6pp / -1.9 pp vs. 30/09/18

REORGANISATION OF THE CONSUMER CREDIT BUSINESS

Signed a binding MoU aimed at strengthening the partnership of Banco BPM and Crédit Agricole in the Consumer Credit sector in Italy

PROFAMILY
Agos
to
acquire
ProFamily
"captive"
business
for
a
total
consideration
of
€310m

ProFamily,
as
part
of
Agos,
will
distribute
its
products
through
the
entire
branch
network
of
Banco
BPM
Group,
on
an
exclusive
basis
with
a
15-year
contract

BBPM
will
keep
100%
of
former
ProFamily
"non
captive"
AGOS
Agos
will
maintain
its
current
shareholding
structure:
61%
CA
and
39%
Banco
BPM

Definitive
agreements
will
be
signed
between
Banco
BPM,
CA
and
CACF
including:
Shareholders'
Agreement,
Distribution
Agreement
and
Funding
Agreement,
which
will
remain
substantially
unchanged
other
than
in
their
duration
(15
years)
Additional flexibility for
both shareholders, while
preserving their strong
commitment for the
future development of
the company

Banco
BPM
and
CA
have
also
agreed
to
explore
the
feasibility
of
an
IPO
of
Agos
over
the
next
2
years

As
part
of
the
IPO,
Banco
BPM
shall
have
the
option
(but
no
obligation)
to
reduce
its
current
shareholding
in
Agos.
Banco
BPM
has
obtained
from
CA
a
put
option
on
a
10%
shareholding
in
Agos,
at
a
price
of
€150m,
exercisable
in
June
2021.
Such
guarantee,
due
to
the
implied
reduction
in
the
risk
related
to
the
capital
invested,
shall
entail
a
consequent
increase
in
Banco
BPM's
CET1
ratio.
This
option
is
in
any
case
unlikely
to
be
exercised,
given
the
wide
gap
between
its
strike
price
and
the
intrinsic
value
of
Agos
which
is
set
to
increase
further
as
a
result
of
the
strengthening
of
the
partnership.
  • Generating a significant capital uplift for Banco BPM (c.+80bps1 ), whilst maintaining the existing shareholding in Agos
  • Strengthening the partnership with CA, as well as Agos' leading position and market share in the sector

Note: 1. Pro-forma impact expected from the completion of the agreement calculated, all other conditions being equal, assuming as reference basis the CET1 ratio fully loaded as at 30 of September 2018 (11.2% PF).

STRUCTURE OF THE TRANSACTION IN CONSUMER CREDIT

KEY STEPS OF THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURE POST TRANSACTION

It is reminded that, as part of a possible IPO of Agos to be explored with CA, Banco BPM would have the option to reduce its stake in Agos by 10%, exercisable in June 2021

UPDATE ON ACE PROJECT

STATUS

Offers

Towards closing

  • Banco BPM received offers from three consortia Credito Fondiario-Eliot, doBank-Fortress-Illimity and Prelios-CRC – for the full perimeter of credit bad loans earmarked for disposal by the bank as well as for subperimeters
  • Offers have been provided for both GACS and non-GACS financing structures, in order for Banco BPM to maintain flexibility on the potential financing structure of the transaction, maximising the outcome for the bank
  • Bidders also submitted offers for the NPL Recovery Business Unit

NEXT STEPS

  • Following the board of 29-Nov, Banco BPM will continue the negotiation with the three consortia in order to sign a framework agreement as soon as possible
  • Final size of the portfolio ranging between €7.0bn - €7.8bn of nominal book value equivalent to a gross balance sheet exposure of €6.0bn and €6.8bn, respectively
  • Possible partnership for the NPL Recovery Business Unit and subscription of a long-term servicing agreement
  • Prosecution of DD on leasing portfolio aimed to obtain final offers

6 Strategic Update: Partnership with Crédit Agricole & ACE Project

NPL DYNAMICS AT A GLANCE: EXCELLENT FURTHER DERISKING TO COME VIA ACE PROJECT

€ bn – Total NPLs, gross book value

Internal management analysis

Notes:

    1. Accounting gross book value, including restatement for managerial purposes (inclusion of a portion of write-offs, in coherence with the restatement done in 2017).
    1. Subject to IFRS 9 reclassification.
    1. Other includes net change in Past Due and IFRS 9 reclassification impact.

SHARP DROP IN NPL RATIOS

Trend since YE 2016 and YTD also impacted by IFRS 9 FTA.

Note:

  1. Data restated excluding from the Nominal amount only the write-offs which remained off-balance sheet at the beginning of 2017.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE RESIDUAL BAD LOAN PORTFOLIO

Analysis of the residual portfolio Focus on the Leasing portfolio1

Assuming disposal of full ACE portfolio (€7.8bn Nominal Book Value)

Key data on residual Bad Loan portfolio Accounting GBV (€bn) Accounting coverage Share of secured Total 3.3 60.6% 72.7% of which: Leasing1 1.7 58.1% 85.9% of which: Other bad loans1 1.6 63.2 58.6%

1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 31/12/2017 30/09/2018 Release Banco BPM • Significant derisking achieved with no massive sales • Dedicated disposal process ("L-ACE") in progress for "Banco BPM" portfolio (in addition to the €7.8bn nominal included in ACE); DD in progress 2.0 1.7 (18.5%) (5.6%) (26.9%) €/bn

Note:

  1. Managerial Data.

SOUND CAPITAL POSITION CONFIRMED

Solid buffer vs. the 2018 SREP requirement to be confirmed. In fact, the benefits of the agreement in Consumer Credit are anyhow set to allow the bank to fully face the overall effects on capital related to the ACE transaction, even in case of NPL disposal for an amount at the top of the range

CONTACTS FOR INVESTORS AND FINANCIAL ANALYSTS

I N V E S T O R R E L A T I O N S

Roberto Peronaglio +39-02-7700.2574
Tom
Lucassen
+39-045-867.5537
Arne
Riscassi
+39-02-7700.2008
Silvia Leoni +39-045-867.5613
Andrea Agosti +39-02-7700.7848

Registered Offices: Piazza Meda 4, I-20121 Milan, Italy Corporate Offices: Piazza Nogara 2, I-37121 Verona, Italy

[email protected] www.bancobpm.it (IR Section)

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