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Eni

Investor Presentation Jul 28, 2023

4348_rns_2023-07-28_45b22229-6b5f-4752-bbbe-87e6b76b07aa.pdf

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Eni 1H 2023 Results Financial Delivery and Strategic Progression

JULY 28, 2023

This document contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future results of Eni that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which Eni operates and the beliefs and assumptions of the management of Eni. In addition, Eni's management may make forwardlooking statements orally to analysts, investors, representatives of the media and others. In particular, among other statements, certain statements with regard to management objectives, trends in results of operations, margins, costs, return on capital, risk management and competition are forward looking in nature. Words such as 'expects', 'anticipates', 'targets', 'goals', 'projects', 'intends', 'plans', 'believes', 'seeks', 'estimates', variations of such words, and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. Therefore, Eni's actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Eni's Annual Reports on Form 20-F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") under the section entitled "Risk factors" and in other sections. These factors include but are not limited to:

  • Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals;
  • Strong competition worldwide to supply energy to the industrial, commercial and residential energy markets;
  • Safety, security, environmental and other operational risks, and the costs and risks associated with the requirement to comply with related regulation, including regulation on GHG emissions;
  • Risks associated with the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, including the risk that exploration efforts may be unsuccessful and the operational risks associated with development projects;
  • Uncertainties in the estimates of natural gas reserves;
  • The time and expense required to develop reserves;
  • Material disruptions arising from political, social and economic instability, particularly in light of the areas in which Eni operates;
  • Risks associated with the trading environment, competition, and demand and supply dynamics in the natural gas market, including the impact under Eni take-or-pay long-term gas supply contracts;
  • Laws and regulations related to climate change;
  • Risks related to legal proceedings and compliance with anti-corruption legislation;
  • Risks arising from potential future acquisitions; and
  • Exposure to exchange rate, interest rate and credit risks.

Any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Eni speak only as of the date they are made. Eni does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in Eni's expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The reader should, however, consult any further disclosures Eni may make in documents it files with or furnishes to the SEC and Consob.

DELIVERY ON STRATEGY

1H 2023 SIGNIFICANT STRATEGIC PROGRESS

A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE ON OUR PATH

OUR LEGACY

OUR PRESENT OUR FUTURE

RE-SHAPED EQUITY DRIVEN SOURCED MODEL LNG PORTOFLIO GROWTH FOCUS ON VALUE TOWARDS A GLOBAL LEADER IN RELIABLE AND SECURE GAS AND LNG SUPPLY MULTIPLE PLATFORMS HIGH GROWTH SAF & HVO UNIQUE INTEGRATION ON FEEDSTOCKS FIRST MOVER IN BIOREFINING DEEP TECHNOLOGY AND KNOW-HOW DEVELOPED SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY LAUNCH RESHAPING BUSINESS THROUGH DEVELPOMENT OF INNOVATIVE PROCESSES AND TECHNOLOGIES FULLY SUSTAINABLE AND DIFFERENTIATED COMPANY FOCUSSING ON CIRCULARITY AND BIOCHEMICALS BUILD OUT RENEWABLES AND E-MOBILITY BUSINESS LEVERAGE CUSTOMER BASE ADRESS CUSTOMER EMISSIONS ACCELERATING FURTHER GROWTH AND CRYSTALLIZING VALUE THROUGH PLENITUDE MARKET VALORIZATION VERSALIS GGP SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY FOCUS ON TIME TO MARKET REDUCED PROJECTS BREAKEVEN DUAL EXPLORATION MODEL & PHASED DEVELOPMENT BALANCE RETURN AND RISKS WITH SHIFT TO GAS IMPROVED RISK-RETURN PROFILE 60% GAS WEIGHTED PORTFOLIO AT 2030 CCS AT SCALE TO TACKLE UNABATED EMISSIONS E&P UPSTREAM G&P R&M AND CHEMICALS

HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING CAPABILITIES ENI-NEXT VENTURES TECH LED BUSINESS GROWTH

PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT IN EXISTING BUSINESS BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES E.G. FUSION

MORE RESILIENT, PROFITABLE COMPANY

FINANCIAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST DECADE

ATTRACTIVE GROWING CASHFLOW FROM STREAMLINED BUSINESS AT CONSTANT PRICES

FOCUS ON ALLOCATION AND CAPITAL PRODUCTIVITY YIELDS HIGHER ROACE AT CONSTANT PRICES

HALVED LEVEL OF LEVERAGE ADDS TO RESILIENCE AND CAPACITY TO SEIZE OPPORTUNITY

UNDERPINNED ORGANICALLY FUNDED DISTRIBUTION TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL FOR THE COMPANY

DIVIDEND GROWS AS A FUNCTION OF PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT AND SHARES IN ISSUE

1H 2023 | GROUP RESULTS

CONFIRMING OUR FINANCIAL STRENGTH

EBIT and Net Profit are adjusted. Cash Flows are adjusted pre-working capital at replacement cost. Leverage: before IFRS 16 lease liabilities.

NATURAL RESOURCES

OUTPERFORMING SCENARIO

E&P

ADJ. EARNINGS PRE-TAX | € BLN

PRODUCTION 1.61 MBOED IN 2Q +2% YOY DRIVEN BY RAMP-UP IN MOZAMBIQUE, MEXICO AND RECOVERED PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN

CONTINUOUS FOCUS ON COST MANAGEMENT

7 7

GGP

ADJ. EARNINGS PRE-TAX | € BLN

DELIVERING ON SUPPLY PORTFOLIO RELOAD

POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION FROM OPTIMIZATION AND TRADING

WEAKER SCENARIO

LOWER PRICES BRENT -31%, PSV -62%

E&P

EBIT €2.1 BLN RESILIENT IN CONTEXT OF SCENARIO & HIGHER NON-CASH EXPLORATION EXPENSES

GGP

BUSINESS RESILIENT TO ABSOLUTE GAS PRICE FALL

BENEFITS FROM CONTRACTUAL TRIGGERS, RENEGOTIATIONS AND SETTLEMENTS

1H EBIT € 2.5 BLN YTD EXCEEDING ORIGINAL GUIDANCE

2023 GGP GUIDANCE RAISED TO € 2.7-3.0 BLN

DOWNSTREAM

CHALLENGED BY MACRO

ADJ. EBIT PRO FORMA | € BLN

SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

EBITDA €0.27 BLN

SCENARIO SERM 6.6 \$/BBL DOWN 62% vs 2Q 2022

GTR&M

REFINING SERM IMPACTED BY LOWER CRACKS & OTHER MARKET DEVELOPMENTS NOT CAPTURED BY SERM PLUS LOWER UTILISATION DUE TO TURNAROUNDS

RESILIENT MARKETING

STRONG CONTRIBUTION FROM ADNOC

CLOSING OF ST. BERNARD BIOREFINERY TRANSACTION

CHEMICAL PERSISTING MARGIN COMPRESSION

NOVAMONT ACQUISITION AGREEMENT FINALISED*

*subject to the customary conditions

PLENITUDE

INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL DELIVERING VALUE

ADJ. EBITDA PRO FORMA | € BLN END OF 1H23 DATA

RENEWABLES

2.5 GW INSTALLED CAPACITY

RETAIL

10 M CUSTOMERS

E-MOBILITY

17 k OWNED PUBLIC EV CPs

ON TRACK VS FY23 GUIDANCE

GROWING INSTALLED CAPACITY IN RES AND E-MOBILITY

STRATEGIC AGREEMENTS IN 1H:

  • OFFSHORE WIND: SIMPLY BLUE AND GREENIT
  • INTERNATIONAL RETAIL: KRAKEN
  • E-MOBILITY: BMW AND IKEA

STRONG FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVEN BY BUSINESS INTEGRATION AND RETAIL

2Q 2023 RESULTS SUMMARY

PRE-TAX TO CASHFLOW AND NET DEBT

HIGH LEVEL OF CASH CONVERSION

POSITIVE WORKING CAPITAL RELEASE AS SEASONAL EFFECTS REVERSE

CFFO MORE THAN COVERS CAPEX AND DISTRIBUTION

FUNDING OF BUYBACK, PORTFOLIO & WINDFALL TAX

NET DEBT € 8.2 BLN CONFIRMS A STRONG BALANCE SHEET WITH HISTORICAL LOW LEVEL OF LEVERAGE AT 15%

Change

CONCLUDING REMARKS

DELIVERING FINANCIAL RESULTS IN A WEAKER SCENARIO

SIGNIFICANT STEPS IN PROGRESSING STRATEGY

CONSITENCY OF PURPOSE

ADVANCING VALUE OF BUSINESS AND DELIVERING ATTRACTIVE SHAREHOLDER RETURN

ANNEX

12

2023 GUIDANCE

PRODUCTION 1.63-1.67 MBOED 1.63 Mboed
in 3Q23
DISCOVERED RESOURCES 700 MBOE
GGP EBIT € 2.7-3.0 BLN
PLENITUDE EBITDA1 ~ € 0.8 BLN
DOWNSTREAM EBIT1 € 0.8 BLN reflecting market conditions
not captured by SERM
SUST. MOBILITY EBITDA1 > € 0.9 BLN
EBIT € 12 BLN underlying improvement
of ~€2B
CFFO2 € 15.5-16 BLN underlying improvement
of €1-1.5B
CAPEX < € 9.0 BLN
DIVIDEND € 0.94/SHARE first
interim payment
in September
BUYBACK € 2.2 BLN commenced in Q2
with €0.4B in May/June
LEVERAGE 10%-20%

GUIDANCE

SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN MEETING AND BEATING GUIDANCE EVEN AS SCENARIO SOFTER

FY EBIT AND CFFO REFLECTS NORMALISING GGP

1 Plenitude and Sustainable Mobility: EBITDA is pro-forma; Downstream: EBIT is pro-forma.

2 Cash Flows are adjusted pre working capital at replacement cost and exclude effects of derivatives.

Updated 2023 Scenario is: Brent 80 \$/bbl (from \$85/bbl); SERM \$8/bbl (unchanged); PSV 484 €/kmc (from €529/kmc); and average EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.08 (unchanged)

2Q 2023 EARNINGS SUMMARY

EBIT TO PRE-TAX RECONCILIATION

€ BLN

RESISTING SCENARIO HEADWINDS TO DELIVER

DIVERSITY IN CONTRIBUTION

RESILIENT DELIVERY FROM

GGP CONFIRMS QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE OF BUSINESS

EMERGENCE OF PLENITUDE

SATELLITES AND ASSOCIATES INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTORS IN EARNINGS AND AS DIVIDEND PAYERS

2Q 2023 vs 2Q 2022 EARNINGS

2Q 2023 vs 1Q 2023 EARNINGS

NATURAL

EARNINGS PRIMARILY IMPACTED BY FALL IN NATURAL GAS PRICES AND SEASONAL TRENDS BETWEEN 1Q AND 2Q

DOWNSTREAM PLENITUDE

€ BLN

2Q MARKET SCENARIO

BRENT| \$/bbl EXCHANGE RATE| €/\$

PSV| €/kcm STANDARD ENI REFINING MARGIN| \$/bbl

UPSTREAM KEY START-UPS IN THE PLAN [1/2]

COUNTRY PROJECT OPERATOR W.I. PRODUCTS FID START UP PRODUCTION (KBOED)A
ANGOLA
(Azule
Energy)
Agogo
West Hub Integrated
J 18% Liquids 2022 2026 (FPSO) 175 (100%)
NGC Quiluma
& Mabuqueiro
J 19% Gas 2021 2026 100 (100%)
CONGO Congo LNG Y 65% Gas 2022 2023 123 (100%)
EGYPT Melehia ph.2 Y 76% Liquids/Gas 2022 2024
(Gas Plant)
37 (100%, Oil&Gas)
Merakes
East
Y 65% Gas 2023 2025 15 (100%)
INDONESIA Maha Y 40% Gas 2024 2026 34 (100%)
ITALY Cassiopea Y 60% Gas 2018 2024 27 (100%)

a Average yearly production in peak year/at plateau Operatorship legend: Y (yes), N (no), J (joint) 18

UPSTREAM KEY START-UPS IN THE PLAN [2/2]

COUNTRY PROJECT OPERATOR W.I. PRODUCTS FID START UP PRODUCTION (KBOED)A
IVORY COAST Baleine
ph.1
Y 83% Liquids/Gas 2022 2023 18 (100%)
Baleine
ph.2
Y 83% Liquids/Gas 2022 2024 38 (100%)
LIBYA A&E Structure Y 50% Gas 2023 2026
(Struct. A)
160 (100%)
Balder X N 58% Liquids 2019 Q3 2024 >70 (100%)b
NORWAY
(Var Energi)
Breidablikk N 22% Liquids 2020 2024 ~62 (100%)c
Johan Castberg N 19% Liquids 2017 2024 ~190 (100%)c
UAE Dalma Gas N 25% Gas 2019 2025 56 (100%)

a Average yearly production in peak year/at plateau

b Source: Var Energi Q1 2022 results (total Balder field production)

c Source: IPO prospect 19

Operatorship legend: Y (yes), N (no), J (joint)

BIOREFINING KEY PROJECTS 2023-26

COUNTRY PROJECT W.I. START UP CAPACITY STATUS ADDITIONAL NOTES
ITALY
(VENICE)
Production capacity
increase
from 360 to 560 kt/y
2024
Enhanced flexibility to
allow other biomass
processing (incl. low bio
ILUC)
100% Ph1 in 2023
Ph2 in 2027
560
kton/y
Firm -
ITALY
(VENICE & GELA)
Product mix enrichment
to grow
HVO diesel & biojet
production
100% 2024-2025 ~740 kton/y
(Gela)
Firm -
ITALY
(LIVORNO)
Building 3 new plants for
hydrogenated biofuel
production
100% 2025 500
Kton/y
Firm Biogenic
feedstock
pre
treatment unit, 500 kton/y
ecofining™
plant
and
hydrogen
plant
MALAYSIA
(PENGERANG)
New biorefinery
under
study (flexible
configuration to max SAF &
HVO prod.)
Under
eval.
FID by 2023,
completion
by 2025
650 kton/y
(gross)
Under
study
Strategic location (easy
access to growing Asian
markets)
USA
CHALMETTE
New biorefinery
conversion
(expanding
presence in North America)
50% H1 2023 550 kton/y
(equity)
Firm Access to premium HVO and
SAF market and ample bio
feedstock availability

PLENITUDE KEY PROJECTS

COUNTRY PROJECT WORKING
INTEREST
EQUITY
INSTALLED
CAPACITY (MW)
TECHNOLOGY COMPLETION YEARLY
PRODUCTION
(GWH)
SPAIN Guillena
& Caparacena
100% 380 2024 800
USA Brazoria 100% 263 2022 450
USA Guajillo 100% 200 B 2024 150
SPAIN Orense 100% 100 2024 210
FRANCE Samoussy 100% 90 2022 90
GREECE Toumba 100% 80 2024 130
ITALY Borgia, Corleone
& Salandra
100% 65 2023-2024 100
KAZAKHSTAN Shaulder 100% 50 2023 90
ITALY Montalto &
Castelvetrano
60% 65 2024 110
UK Dogger
Bank
(A, B, C)
13% 470 2023-2026 2.100

Storage: BESS production refers to annual energy dispatched.

21

Completion represents the final construction stage excluding the grid connection, meaning that all principal components have been installed. Pre-commissioning activities fall within the construction phase.

SENSITIVITY 2023
------------------ -- --
SENSITIVITY 2023 EBIT ADJ
(€ bln)
Net adj
(€ bln)
CFFO before WC
(€ bln)
Brent
(1 \$/bbl)
0.18 0.13 0.13
European Gas Spot Upstream (1 \$/mmbtu) 0.15 0.12 0.13
Std. Eni Refining Margin (1 \$/bbl) 0.14 0.10 0.14
Exchange rate \$/€
(+0.05 \$/€)
-0.47 -0.26 -0.58

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