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Ignitis Grupe

Investor Presentation May 23, 2023

2254_iss_2023-05-23_1d79122d-35f1-4dc4-a651-8a0a44d245db.pdf

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Strategy update | Strategic plan 2023–2026

1/75 Ignitis Group │ 2023 May

Legal notice

This document has been prepared by AB "Ignitis grupė" (Ignitis Group) solely for informational purposes and must not be relied upon, disclosed or published, or used in part for any other purpose.

The document should not be treated as investment advice or provide basis for valuation of Ignitis Group securities and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, hold, or dispose of any of its securities, or any of the businesses or assets referenced in the document.

The information in this document may comprise information which is neither audited nor reviewed by independent third parties and should be considered as preliminary and potentially subject to change. Therefore, no express or implied warranty is made as to the accuracy, correctness or completeness of the information and statements expressed herein, for any purpose whatsoever.

This document may also contain certain forward-looking statements, including but not limited to, the statements and expectations regarding anticipated financial and operational performance. These statements are based on the management's current views, expectations, assumptions, and information as of the date of this document announcement as well as the information that was accessible to management at that time. Statements herein, other than statements of historical fact, regarding Ignitis Group's future results of operations, financials, business strategy, plans and future objectives are forward-looking statements. Words such as "forecast", "expect", "intend", "plan", "will", "may", "should", "continue", "predict" or variations of these words, as well as other statements regarding matters that are not a historical fact or regarding future events or prospects, constitute forward-looking statements.

Ignitis Group bases forward-looking statements on its current views, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which may be beyond Ignitis Group's control or difficult to predict, and could cause the actual results to differ materially from those predicted and from the past performance of Ignitis Group. The estimates and projections reflected in the forward-looking statements may prove materially incorrect and the actual results may materially differ due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, legislation and regulatory factors, geopolitical tensions, economic environment and industry development, commodities and markets factors, environmental factors, finance-related risks as well as expansion and operation of generation assets. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements.

In the event of any discrepancy between the Lithuanian and the English versions of the document, the English version shall prevail.

No responsibility or liability of any kind will be accepted by Ignitis Group, its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this document or its contents. Unless required by the applicable law, Ignitis Group is under no duty and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Content

1. Business model 4
2. Context 8
3. Purpose 12
4. Business segments 15
4.1. Green Generation 16
4.2. Customers & Solutions 30
4.3. Reserve Capacities 34
4.4. Networks 36
4.5. Summary 40
5. Sustainability 42
6. People 45
7. Financials 48
8. Highlights 54
Annexes 57

1. Business model

Renewables-focused integrated utility

Ignitis Group

  • Renewables-focused integrated utility and the largest energy group in the Baltics
  • 45 GW of installed Green Generation capacity by 2030
  • Net zero emissions by 2040–2050
  • Focus on green and flexible technologies such as offshore wind, onshore hybrid, P2X & storage
  • Integrated business model benefiting from the largest customer portfolio, energy storage facility, network and energy hub in the Baltics
  • Active in the Baltic states, Poland and Finland

Integrated business model

ESG leader

Sustainalytics MSCI ESG CDP climate EcoVadis
19.9
(Low risk)
AA
(Leader)
A-
(Leadership)
78
(Platinum)
Rank compared
to utility peers
Top 12% Top 38%1 B2 Top 3%3

Net zero emissions by 2040–2050

Following global initiatives and standards

Validated GHG emissions targets for 2030 with the SBTi.

Implemented TCFD recommendations on climate related financial disclosure.

Reporting in accordance with the globally recognised GRI standards.

  1. MSCI utilities rank and average based on utilities included in the MSCI ACWI index. 2. In the activity group of 'Energy utility networks'. 3. In electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply industry. This assessment covers only UAB "Ignitis" (Customers & Solutions).

2. Context

What drives our strategy?

Global climate changes EU response and climate action

Global contributors

Efforts to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C to reach net zero by 2050 (Paris Agreement, 2015)

The main five sources of today's global greenhouse gas emissions are manufacturing, electricity, agriculture, transportation, buildings The EU aims to be climate-neutral by 2050 (European Green Deal, 2020) in line with the Paris Agreement.

  1. Source: Climate Action Tracker (EU sets goal to be 'climate neutral' by 2050).

  2. Source: Grand Challenges | Breakthrough Energy.

  3. Included land use and forestry.

  4. Source: United nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; and European Environment Agency.

The context (II) What drives our strategy?

Carbon Emission Prices, nominal, EUR/tonne 1

EU Fossil fuel based production, TWh 2

Growing EUA prices Phase-out of conventional plants Energy security and independence (EU)

European Natural gas import from Russia, billion m3 3

Growing demand for electricity

EU electricity demand, TWh per annum EU electricity demand, TWh per annum 2

Green generation capacity targets Growing power-to-X capacities

  1. Source: ICIS, Trading Economics; 2. Source: ICIS. 3. Source: Bruegel.org, Ignitis analysis.

Demand and supply in Europe

The Baltic states and the Nordic countries will become substantial suppliers of both electricity and hydrogen for Central Europe (incl. Germany)

3. Purpose

100% green and secure energy ecosystem

Purpose

Our purpose is to create a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem for current and future generations

We fulfil our purpose by leading the regional transition into a climate-neutral, secure and independent energy ecosystem and contributing to Europe's decarbonisation by facilitating renewable energy flows from Northern to Central Europe (incl. Germany).

By leading the regional transition in Lithuania and the Baltics, we strive to become one of the first 100% green energy systems in Europe.

By energy ecosystem we mean the combination of the multiple interdependent parties involved in the generation, consumption, transformation and transportation of clean energy (including industry, transport and heating).

Purpose-driven priorities

4. Business segments

Green Generation | Customers & Solutions | Reserve Capacities | Networks

Green Generation

Strategic priorities:

Delivering 4 –5 GW of installed green and flexible capacities by 2030 with a focus on:

  • Offshore wind
  • Onshore hybrid
  • P2X & storage

Focus markets:

The Baltic states and Poland. We are also exploring new opportunities in other EU markets undergoing energy transition

Significant opportunities in the home market

Lithuania: Structural electricity deficit

Only ~1/3 of electricity consumption is covered by national generation. The country aims to become self-sufficient, therefore, a significant build-out of domestic generation assets is expected.

Poland: Transition away from coal generation

Coal generation represented >70% of the generation mix in Poland in 2022. This is expected to gradually decline and be replaced by renewable energy.

Estonia: Phase-out of oil shale

Around 63% of Estonia's electricity production in 2021 was from oil shale, and there is a growing need to develop new renewable capacities to cover the phase-out of oil shale.

The Baltics: terminated electricity imports from Russia & Belarus Electricity imports from Russia and Belarus were terminated regionwide following Russia's war in Ukraine. These imports are expected to be replaced by domestic renewables.

EU: REPowerEU

The European Commission has set out a plan to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuels well before 2030. This will result in +680 GW of onshore wind and solar3 , and +85 GW of offshore wind4 capacity additions (by 2030 vs. 2022)

Green energy installed capacity evolution in our home market (GW) 1

  1. Sources: Company analysis based on Litgrid, Arena, European Commission, Ministry of Assets of Poland, Wood Mackenzie, Statistics Estonia, Eurostat, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Lithuania, ICIS and Volue.

  2. Sources: Onshore solar https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=SWD%3A2022%3A230%3AFIN&qid=1653033922121 (REPowerEU). Onshore wind: https://windeurope.org/intelligence-platform/product/financing-and-investment-trends-2022/ (page 39).

  3. Source: Offshore:https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/member-states-agree-new-ambition-expanding-offshore-renewable-energy-2023-01-19_en.

1. Installed capacities include: wind, solar, bio, hydro and battery assets.

Green Generation installed capacity targets 2026: 2.2–2.4 GW1

2030: 4–5 GW1

Green Generation Portfolio 5.3 GW1

  1. Secured capacity: Installed, under construction and awarded/contracted. /69

Focus on technologies that can deliver a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem

Generation

Focus on offshore wind and onshore hybrid (wind+solar)

Offshore wind development

Offshore wind development is seen as the backbone of our Green Generation strategy. Therefore, strong emphasis is placed upon the necessary human and financial resources that will be required to be successful in the upcoming tenders.

Onshore we will focus on hybrid technology generation as this ensures higher utilisation of available grid capacities and a more stable generation profile.

Flexibility

Growth in renewables will lead to an increase in the demand for energy storage and balancing

Batteries short-term
storage
Enable integration
of renewables by facilitating
demand management, helping improve grid reliability
while limiting output curtailment.
Pumped-storage hydro
Very large balancing capacities that enable future
renewable energy growth in the region.
middle-term
storage
P2X technologies
Potential solutions for attaining global climate goals
and decarbonizing industry, transportation and power
generation.
long-term
storage

Strategy update | Strategic Plan 2023–2026 / Business Segments / Green Generation

We aim to secure 2 offshore wind development projects in the Baltics:

  • one project in Lithuania (COD until 2030), and
  • one more project in our home market (COD post 2030)

Timeline of publicly announced auctions in the Baltics:

2023 Q1 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2026
Auction
0.7 GW
Auction
0.7 GW
Multiple
auctions
Joint
auction
(Seabed and
grid connection)
(CfD, seabed
and
grid
~7 GW 1 GW
connection) (Seabed only) (Seabed and
grid connection)

Potential in the Baltics and Poland

  1. Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communication of the Republic of Estonia. 2. Study on Baltic offshore wind energy cooperation under BEMIP. 3. Poland Wind Energy Association. 4. https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/renewable-energy/offshore-renewable-energy_en.

Offshore wind capacity targets for the EU: at least 60 GW by 2030 and 300 GW by 20504

Hybrid technology generation ensures higher utilisation of available grid capacities and a more stable generation profile.

Hybrid technology generation is when energy sources are diversified, ensuring that green energy is available at most times. They are complimentary technologies as the generation is not synchronised. For example, solar and wind energy sources typically do not correlate, which means that we have energy from the sun when it is not windy and wind energy when it is not sunny. Relying on multiple energy sources rather than one is a fundamental aspect of an energy system based on renewable energy sources.

A hybrid energy generation ecosystem is great for the grid too. Better grid utilisation means lower transmission and distribution costs as well as more capacity for more renewable energy.

Enable integration of renewables by facilitating demand management, helping improve grid reliability, and limiting output curtailment.

Batteries have roles in a variety of markets – balancing, ancillary, frequency containment reserves and day-ahead arbitrage.

Rapid development of renewables in the region is increasing demand for balancing and grid services.

Targeting commercial-scale batteries by 2026.

Current capacity 900 MW

Four operating units (4x225 MW) can perform up to 300 cycles1 per year.

The upper reservoir can hold around 48.7 million cubic metres of working water.

Expansion by 2026 +110 MW

New 5th unit (1x110MW) will provide extra flexibility.

It will also allow us to provide more balancing and ancillary services.

Capabilities post-2026 1,010 MW

All 5 turbines will be able to run at full load for ~10 hours.

10 hours x 1 GW = 10 GWh of storage capacity.

Flexibility in generation mode: 0 – 1,010 MW (pre-expansion: 160 – 900 MW)

Flexibility in pump mode: 59 – 1,010 MW (pre-expansion: 220 – 900 MW)

5 th unit cycle efficiency of 82.5% (pre-expansion: 74%)

5 th unit max capacity reachable in 80 seconds (pre-expansion: 180 seconds)

Ignitis group's strategy is to pursue the development of a pilot project, leading to the full commercialization of Power-to-X technologies in the longer term.

1 st stage

Implementation of a hydrogen production and e-fuel conversion pilot project

2 nd and later stages

Successful pilot project will pave the way to developing strategic partnerships and gaining resources for industry-scale hydrogen and e-fuel production capabilities

Where will hydrogen and e-fuels be used?

Methanol, synthetic methane and ammonia are usually referred to as key alternative e-fuels. With the implementation of renewable-source-based energy systems, energy conversion to hydrogen will gradually take place as a practical measure to absorb large amounts of surplus electricity.

Energy converted to hydrogen can be conveniently reverted to electricity for peak energy demand periods or for longerterm storage. It can be converted to other e-fuels when combined with carbon dioxide or nitrogen gas collected from fossil fuel sources or ambient air.

Hydrogen is expected to be used mainly as a short-term energy storage measure rather than as a direct fuel in transport or other sectors. Heavy industry or fertilizer activities may adopt green hydrogen as feedstock for production earlier.

E-fuels, however, are expected to be used directly in transportation, light industry activities or energy generation during peak demand periods to support other energy storage methods.

Strategic partnerships

We partner with strategic investors to adopt new technologies or enter new markets

Partnership with Fortum: adopting WtE technologies

Rationale at this stage
We partnered with Fortum (a leading WtE player)
(negotiating)
in 2015 to build Kaunas CHP
Structure Ignitis (51%) and Fortum (49%)
Capacity 24 MW electricity and 70
MW heat capacity
Investments ~EUR 152m
Status Kaunas CHP has been successfully completed and operational since 2020
Partnership with Ocean Winds: adopting offshore wind technologies
New
potential
pa
Rationale rtnership
(negoti
In 2020 we partnered with Ocean Winds (OW) to participate in the first 700
ating)
MW offshore wind auction in Lithuania. OW is a joint venture of EDP
Renewables and Engie, leading energy companies in Europe which manage
more than 30 GW of renewable energy sources globally.
Structure Ignitis (5%) and Ocean Winds (95%)
Capacity 700 MW
Status In preparation for bidding in the auction

Operating model

Power offtake capabilities

We utilise our supply portfolio to structure offtake agreements and enable Green Generation build-out

Offtake capabilitiessizeable uncovered supply portfolio creates a significant competitive advantage for Green Generation

  1. Excluding opportunistic assets (Elektrėnai, which accounted for 15% of the total generated volume, and Kruonis, with 25% of total generation in 2022). 2. Assuming the whole surplus of electricity supply (6.6 TWh) can be utilised for new wind and solar generation offtake with a load factor of ~25% (57/43 split between wind and solar with load factors of ~35% and ~12% respectively).

Target returns

Levered

High single-digit, low double-digit depending on the risk profile

Target returns Value-creation concept

Ignitis Group is able to capture additional value throughout the project execution stages

We intend to sell up to 49% of each project to recycle capital and capture value premium

Capital recycling, enabling faster growth

Capturing value premium by selling de-risked assets

Green Generation investments 2023–2026, EURbn

Green Generation capacity, GW

Customers & Solutions

Strategic priorities:

    1. Utilising and further expanding customer portfolio to enable Green Generation build –out
    1. Building a leading EV public charging network in the Baltics
    1. Speeding up the transition from gas to power

Home market: The Baltic States, Poland and Finland.

Utilising and further expanding customer portfolio to enable Green Generation build-out

Customers B2B & B2C

1.4 million in 2022 The largest customer base in the Baltics

Exploiting synergies with the Green Generation segment

Expanding electricity supply portfolio to accelerate the green transformation of our customers

  • Form Green Generation offtake portfolio
  • Best in class trading and risk management competences
  • Attractive and diverse product portfolio with a focus on power and long-term value
  • Great customer experience
  • Digitally advanced customer services

Electricity supply portfolio, TWh

Building a leading EV public charging network in the Baltics

Targeting to reach ~50% market share of public EV charging infrastructure by 2026

  • Utilisation of own EV network' s balancing capabilities
  • EV network will become a significant offtaker of green electricity in the future

Speeding up the transition from gas to power

We aim to optimize our retail gas supply portfolio to ~5.0 TWh in 2026 and have committed to reduce it further by securing the supply levels required for the security of the energy system during the energy transition period in Lithuania.

Retail gas supply portfolio Sales volume, in TWh

Speeding up the transition from gas to power Proactively promoting customers to move from gas to power.

Retail supply portfolio: electricity and natural gas Sales volume, in TWh

Natural gas (retail)

Reserve Capacities

Strategic priorities:

  1. Contributing to the security of the energy system

Focus markets: Lithuania

Utilising reserve capacities to ensure reliability and security of the power system

Option to generate electricity in the market during low renewables generation /positive clean spark spread periods

1 In 2023, gas-fired capacity of 891 MW has been dedicated to isolated regime services. 2. Average availability of Elektrėnai Complex – (CCGT – 97.3%, Unit 7– 97.6%; Unit 8 – 99.2%). 3 Production volumes of electricity in Elektrėnai Complex in 2022 were low due to unfavourable market conditions (high gas prices). 4 Share from EBITDA, which was earned in Elektrėnai Complex.

Networks

Strategic priorities:

    1. Resilient and efficient electricity distribution
    1. Electricity network expansion and energy market facilitation
    1. End -to -end customer experience

Focus market: Lithuania

1.

Networks regulatory framework

The largest network in the Baltics, a natural monopoly for distribution services >99.5%1 of the Lithuanian market

  1. In 2020, based on electricity distribution volumes (Source: NERC).

  2. For 2022. WACC weighted average (for electricity and natural gas) and additional tariff component calculations are based on RAB for 2022.

Investing to ensure network resilience and enable the energy transition in Lithuania

Electricity network maintanance and other

Natural gas network

EURbn

Focus on electricity network and customers

    1. Unplanned disconnections of electricity are calculated in accordance with the methodology approved by the National Energy Regulatory Council excluding (1) interruptions that have occurred as a result of natural phenomena corresponding to the values of indicators of natural, catastrophic meteorological and hydrological phenomena; (2) interruptions resulting from failures in the transmission system operator's network.
    1. The value of the SAIFI indicator can vary depending on the volume of investments and changes in the prices of materials and contractors.
    1. Electricity network's technological losses of 5.1% in 2022 to be reduced to 4.8% in 2026.
    1. Share of users connected to automated control lines in 2021 was 45%, We are aiming to reach ~ 78% by 2031.

journeys

Summary | Strategic priorities by business segment

Our purpose is to create a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem for current and future generations

41/69

5. Sustainability

Strategic priorities: decarbonisation, safety, employee experience, diversity and sustainable value creation

42/69

Our commitment to a sustainable future: 2026 targets

Priority Decarbonisation Safety Employee
experience
Diversity Sustainable
value creation
Reduction of GHG emissions in
accordance with science-based targets
Zero
fatal accidents
Total
recordable
injury rate
Employee overall
experience3
Gender
diversity
in top
management
Sustainable
investments
Sustainable
returns
2026 strategic
milestones and
targets
3.9
1
m t CO2
-eq
-27%1
GHG emissions reduction
(vs. 2020)
0 fatalities
of
employees &
contractors
<1.75 <3.5
TRIR
of
employees &
contractors
≥50%
employees
promoting the Group
as an employer
(eNPS)
≥35%
share of women in
top management
positions
>85–90%
4
share
of CAPEX
aligned to the EU
Taxonomy
(2023–2026)
>75%
sustainable Adjusted
EBITDA
share4
2022
2021
2020
-eq1
4.98m t CO2
-eq1
4.57m t CO2
-eq1
5.31m t CO2
3
(1 2)
0
(0 0)
0
(0 0)
1.69 0.462
2.01 n/d
0.45 n/d
61.8%
57.4%
56.0%
23%
27%
28%
89.5% (356 EURm)
71.3% (192 EURm)
n/a
74.6% (350 EURm)
63.1% (210 EURm)
n/a
SDG contribution
ESG
contribution
ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIAL GOVERNACE
  1. GHG emissions from Vilnius CHP are not included.

  2. For the period: Jun-Dec 2022.

  3. Experiences of employees in areas such as well-being, learning and growth, equal pay, diversity and inclusion, etc.

  4. CAPEX and adjusted EBITDA from EU Taxonomy-aligned activities.

Strategy update | Strategic Plan 2023–2026 / Sustainability

Science-based emissions reduction pathway

Ignitis Group plans to halve its GHG emissions by 2030 – our near-term targets are aligned with a 1.5°C scenario and validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).

As a result of a targeted approach, Ignitis Group anticipates significant reductions in emissions in both Scope 1 and Scope 3 compared to the baseline for 20201 .

We target net zero emissions by 2040–2050.

Target value 2026
(vs. 2020)1
GHG emissions intensity from power
generation
83
g CO2
-eq/kWh
(-64%)
GHG emissions intensity from power
generation
and sold electricity
143
g CO2
-eq/kWh
(-44%)
GHG emissions not related to power
generation
0.44 m t CO2
-eq
(-4%)
GHG emissions intensity from use of
sold products
0.9 m t CO2
-eq
(-57%)
  1. In this slide, GHG emissions from Vilnius CHP are not included since this power plant only began its waste-to-energy unit tests at the end of 2020, and only a very small amount of Vilnius CHP emissions (0.02m t CO2 -eq) is included in 2020 base. As a result, the targets were set without including Vilnius CHP. After Vilnius CHP has operated with fully operational waste-to-energy and biomass units for at least a year, its comprehensive effects will be evaluated, and the Group's targets will be revalidated. This also applies to other excluded categories (for more information see the Group's GHG inventory reports).

6. People

Diverse team of energy smart people united by a common purpose

We are a diverse team of energy smart people united by a common purpose to create a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem for current and future generations

Take YOUR part in #EnergySmart!

Our Values

RESPONSIBILITY PARTNERSHIP

Care. Do. For Earth. Starting with myself

Diverse. Strong. Together

See. Understand. Share. Open to the world

Curious. Bold. Everyday OPENNESS GROWTH

People Strategy

Attracting and retaining top talents Top employer Building critical skills and competencies 100% ensured talent pipeline for strategy execution Having a human-centric approach ≥50% employee NPS ≥35% women in top management positions in 2026 Strategic priorities Green Flexible Integrated Sustainable Creating a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem Creating new jobs in renewables Increasing attractiveness of the energy sector TOP employer with international HR standards Building current and future leadership bench Renewables competence hub Internal career platform Applying a holistic employee well-being approach Growing a diverse and inclusive organisation High rate of positive employee experience

Contributing to Ignitis Group's purpose and strategic priorities by building a diverse team of energy smart people

7. Financials

Target returns, leverage and dividends

Strategy update | Strategic Plan 2023–2026 / Financials

Target returns

EBITDA expected to reach EUR 470–550m in 2026, mainly driven by Green Generation

Adjusted EBITDA, EURm

Adjusted ROCE, %

Commitment to a solid investment-grade credit rating

We expect to maintain

BBB or above

credit rating over the 2023–2026 period

Growing dividends

Minimum annual dividends, EURm

Dividend policy

We aim to grow our dividends to shareholders at a minimum 3% annual rate.

We also have the flexibility to distribute excess cash, if available.

Implied dividend yield in 2023–2026

  1. Calculated based on the No. of shares (72,388,960 ordinary shares). 2. Implied dividend yield (annual) over the 2023–2026 period is calculated based on Ignitis Group's share price: 20.5 €/sh. Dividend yield for GDRs: 6.6% in 2022.

Strategic plan 2023–2026 vs. 2022–2025, 2021–2024, 2020–2023

8. Highlights

Highlights

Our purpose is to create a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem for current and future generations

Key investment highlights

The largest listed company in the Baltics

Renewables-focused: 4–5 GW of installed green and flexible capacity by 2030 (4x vs current 1.2GW)

Integrated business model: positioned to benefit from the largest customer portfolio, energy storage facility, network, and energy hub in the Baltics.

Leader in an attractive market: Baltics is the fastest growing region in the EU: GDP growth 2x EU's average1 , expected renewable capacity growth ~3x vs ~1.8x in EU2,3

Strong financial profile: BBB+ credit rating

ESG leader committed to net zero emissions by 20402050: placed among top rated European utilities according to multiple ESG ratings

Attractive blend of yield and growth: dividend yield of ~6-7%4 and Adjusted EBITDA growth of ~7-11%5

  1. 5-year (2018–2022) average Real GDP growth (source): EU-27 – 1.4%; Lithuania – 3.3%; Latvia – 2.3%; Estonia – 2.7%.

  2. Sources: Company analysis based on Litgrid, Arena, European Commission, Ministry of Assets of Poland, Wood Mackenzie, Statistics Estonia, Eurostat, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Lithuania, ICIS and Volue. 3. Source: EU Long-Term Power Analytics – ICIS (2023).

  3. Implied dividend yield (annual) over the 2023–2026 period. 5. CAGR, 2021–2026.

Disclosure summary

Strategic ambitions and financial guidance

Green generation installed capacity:
-
2026
2.2–2.4
GW
-
2030
4.0–5.0
GW
Adjusted EBITDA, 2026 470–550
EURm
-
of which a sustainable
share, 2026
>75%
Average ROCE, 2023–2026 6.5–7.5%
Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA, 2023–2026 < 5x
Solid investment–grade rating (S&P),
2023–2026
BBB or above
minimum 3%
Dividend policy annual grow rate
Minimum DPS1
-
, 2026
≥1.40
EUR
Dividend yield1
-
, 2023–2026
6.3–6.9%
Science-based GHG emissions reduction (to align with 1.5 °C scenario
alongside an explicit net-zero by 2040–2050 commitment):
-
2026 vs. 2020
-27%
-
2030 vs. 2020
-47%

Our strategic performance KPIs

Total CAPEX, 2023–2026 2.2–2.8 EURbn
-
of which a sustainable share, 2023–2026
>85–90%
Electricity supply portfolio, 2026 ~10.5–10.9 TWh
Public EV charging network (charging points), 2026 >3000 points
Electricity SAIFI: average 2023–2026 ≤1.05
Network digitalisation: # of smart meters in 2026 >1.2
million
Average availability of Reserve
Capacities, 2023–2026
>98%
Safety at work:
-
Fatal accidents of own employees and contractors, 2026
-
Total recordable injury rate
(TRIR) of own employees, 2026
-
Total recordable injury rate
(TRIR) of contactors, 2026
0
<1.75
<3.50
Engaged employees, diverse and inclusive workplace:
-
Employee Net promoter score (eNPS),
2023–2026
≥50%
Diversity in top management:
-
Share of women in top management,
2026
≥35%

Green Generation operating assets

Green Generation portfolio under construction

Portfolio (23 May 2023)

Capacity, total: ~ 495.1 MWe (169 MWth)

Investments, total: ~ EUR 866 million7

Project
name
Mažeikiai
WF
Vilnius CHP
(biomass unit)
Silesia WF I Polish solar
portfolio II
Silesia WF II Tauragė
solar
project
Moray West
offshore wind project6
Kruonis
PSHP
expansion
Country Lithuania Lithuania Poland Poland Poland Lithuania The United Kingdom Lithuania
Technology Onshore wind Biomass Onshore wind Solar Onshore wind Solar Offshore wind Hydro pumped storage
Capacity 63 MW 73 MWe, 169 MWth 50 MW ~ 40 MW < 137 MW 22.1 MW 882 MW 110 MW
Turbine / module / other type of unit manufacturer 14 x 4.5 MW
Nordex
1 x 73 MWe Siemens;
2 x 84.5 MWth
Rafako
14 x 3.6 MW
Nordex
17 MW4
Jinko Solar
38 x 3.6 MW
Nordex
22.1 MW
Trina Solar
60 x 14.7 MW
Siemens Gamesa
1 x 110 MW
Voith Hydro
Investment ~ EUR 80–85 million ~ EUR 270 million1 ~ EUR 75 million3 ~ EUR 30 million ~ EUR 240 million3 ~ EUR 16 million Not disclosed ~ EUR 150 million
Revenue model Internal PPA Merchant CfD CfD
/ Internal PPA
CfD
/
External PPA
Internal PPA CfD
/ External PPA
Merchant
Proportion of secured revenue 65% 0% 100% 100% 35% 0% 85% 0%
Ownership 100% 100%2 100% 100%5 100% 100% 5%6 100%
Partnership n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Ocean Winds n/a
Progress
FID made + + + + + + + +
WTGs erected (units) / Solar modules & inverters installed
(MW) / Other type of turbines or units installed (units)
14 / 14 3 / 3 0 / 14 8 / 40 0 / 38 0 / 22 0 / 60 0 / 1
First power to the grid supplied + - - - - - - -
Expected COD Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q1 2024 2023 –
Q1 2024
H2 2024 2024 2025 2026
Status On track On track On track On track On track On track On track On track
  1. Includes EU CAPEX grant for Vilnius CHP (i.e., waste-to-energy (operational since Q1 2021) and biomass units) which in total amounts to ~EUR 140 million.

  2. 49% to be divested post COD according to EU CAPEX grant rules.

  3. Including project acquisition and construction works.

  4. For the remaining capacity, the contract for the supply of modules has not yet been concluded with any manufacturer.

  5. After full completion of construction works.

  6. As the Group owns a minority stake of 5%, the project's capacity is not consolidated and is not reflected in the data of Green Generation Portfolio.

  7. Excluding not disclosed investments.

Green Generation portfolio advanced development pipeline

Portfolio (23 May 2023)

  1. Including project acquisition and construction works.

Capacity, total: ~ 822 MW

Investments, total: ~ EUR 773 million

Green Generation portfolio early development pipeline

Portfolio (23 May 2023)

Investments, total: ~ EUR 410 million5

Project
name
Latvian onshore WF portfolio I:
Project 2 & 3
Plungė WF project Lithuanian offshore WF (spring) Greenfield
portfolio
Country Latvia Lithuania Lithuania Lithuania, Latvia, Poland
Technology Onshore wind Onshore wind Offshore wind Onshore wind & solar
Capacity ~ 90 MW < 218 MW 700 MW ~ 1.8 GW3
Investment ~EUR 110 million1 ~EUR 300 million1 Not disclosed Not disclosed
Ownership 100%2 100%2 51% 100%
Partnership n/a n/a Ocean Winds n/a
Progress
Land secured + + + n/a
Expected COD 2026–2027 2026–2030 2028-2030 2025–20304
Status On track On track On track On track
  1. Including project acquisition and construction works.

  2. After construction permits are granted or prior grid deposit is paid.

  3. Secured land lease agreements for the development of the indicated capacity.

  4. As the indicated capacity includes different projects, expected COD depends on the progress of individual projects. Additionally, Lithuanian projects should begin operations towards the end of the indicated time range.

  5. Excluding not disclosed investments. 62/75

B2B B2C

Customers & Solutions portfolio

2.91 2.57 3.86 5.15 7.71 6.77 2021 2022 2021 2022

2.84 2.55 6.09 7.4 2.62 2.86 11.55 12.8 +14% +10.8%

1.4 M Customers end of 2022

EV charging stations, # (Ignitis ON - own network/period end)

Electricity supply portfolio, TWh Natural gas supply portfolio, TWh

Wholesale Retail B2B Retail B2C

Reserve Capacities Reserve Capacities operating assets

Option to exploit gas-fired generation assets during low renewables generation /positive clean spark spread periods

Networks regulatory framework

Largest Network in the Baltics, with a natural monopoly in both electricity and gas distribution services >99.5%1 of the Lithuanian market

Regulated WACC & regulatory periods

Science-based emissions reduction targets

reduction targets validated by the SBTi. We expect that the remaining emissions will not change significantly.

The projected effect of the validated targets on total Group emissions is a 47% reduction by 2030 (vs. 2020)1 .

Most of the Group's GHG emissions are covered by emission Share of Group's GHG emissions covered by targets validated by the SBTi

Target scope Target value 2030
(vs. 2020)
Emissions scope Main reduction areas
GHG emissions intensity from 15 g CO2-eq/kWh Scope 1 (stationary combustion) + Increasing green electricity generation capacity
power generation (-94%) biogenic emissions Optimising consumption of resources necessary for operations
Increasing green electricity generation capacity
GHG emissions intensity from
power generation and sold
electricity
27 g CO2-eq/kWh
(-90%)
Scope 1 (stationary combustion) +
Scope 3 (sold electricity and heat)
Developing solutions that support customer energy efficiency (e. g. implementation of smart
metering for customers)
Increasing share of green electricity sold to customers
Increasing share of green electricity usage
GHG emissions not related to
power generation
0.34m t CO2-eq
(-42%)
Scope 1 + Scope 2 Natural gas grid loss reduction
Replacing operational vehicle fleet with EVs
GHG emissions from use of sold
products
1.5m t CO2-eq
(-25%)
Scope 3 (sale of natural gas to end
users)
Promotion customer transition
from gas to electricity

-eq

  1. GHG emissions from Vilnius CHP are not included (see slide 44). The historical data has been recalculated. 2. Emissions not covered by emission reduction targets validated by SBTi (remaining emissions) come from electricity grid losses, well-to-tank of fuel, etc. The exclusion of these emissions is consistent with the SBTi methodology for target validation. In 2020, these emissions in total amounted to 0.33 million t CO2-eq.

Performance objectives for 2023–2026

Based on the strategic plan for 2023–2026 of the Ignitis group

Strategic Priority Objective
Weight Entry (70%) Target (100%)
(equal to maximum)
Performance TSR
Group vs. average TSR of EURO STOXX® Utilities Index1
TSR of Ignitis
40% ≥70%2 ≥100%2
Returns Average adjusted ROCE3
over the four years 2023–2026
20% 6.5%2 7.5%2
Growing
renewables
Green generation installed capacity4
, GW
20% 2.22 2.42
Increasing
Networks resiliency
Average electricity SAIFI5
over the four years 2023–2026
(per annum)
10% ≤1.09 ≤1.05
Targeting net zero
emissions
GHG emissions reduction, 2026
vs. 20206
10% -15%2 -27%2
    1. TSR (Total Shareholders Return) is calculated as the ratio of the difference between the average share price at the end of the period and the beginning of the period and adding the amount of dividends per share over performance period to the share price at the beginning of the performance period. The average TSR (Total Shareholders Return) of Ignitis Group and EURO STOXX® Utilities Index is calculated in the two-month period (Nov and Dec accordingly) preceding the beginning and the end of the performance period (January 1, 2023–December 31, 2026), in order to neutralise any possible volatility on the market. TSR of Ignitis Group is calculated with the assumption that dividends are reinvested as well as EURO STOXX® Utilities Index used for benchmarking (based on gross return index type and EUR currency). Change in the value of the Ignitis Group shares between the beginning and the end of the reference period calculated as a weighted average of the IGN1L (Nasdaq Baltic) and IGN GDR (London Stock Exchange) prices based on volume traded.
    1. Target will be measured according to the achievement scale with linear interpolation between the entry (70%) and target (100%) thresholds.
    1. ROCE is calculated by dividing Ignitis Group adjusted earnings before interest and tax (adjusted EBIT) by its capital employed (average net debt at the beginning and end of the reporting period + average book value of equity at the beginning and end of the reporting period).
  • Gross installed capacity (COD reached), 2026.

  • Electricity SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index) is calculated based on the National Energy Regulatory Council methodology, excluding (1) interruptions due to natural phenomena corresponding to the values of natural, catastrophic meteorological and hydrological phenomena indicators; (2) interruptions due to failures in the network of the transmission system operator. Target objective is defined based on the decision of the National Energy Regulatory Council on January 26 of 2022 no. O3E-79.

  • Based on the Ignitis group GHG emissions level in 2020: 5.31m t CO2-eq. (excl. Vilnius CHP), targeted 2026 level: 3.9m t CO2-eq.

Abbreviations

Indicator Definition
# Number
% Per cent
Adjusted EBITDA EBITDA after eliminating items, which are non-recurring, and/or non-cash, and/or related to
other periods, and/or non-related to the main activities of the Group, and after adding back
items, which better reflect the result of the current period
B2B Business to business
B2C Business to consumer
CAPEX Capital expenditure
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CCGT Combined cycle gas turbine
CfD Contract for difference
CHP Combined heat and power
CO2 Carbon dioxide
COD Commercial operations date
DPS Dividend per share
eNPS Employee Net Promoter Score
ESG Environmental, social and corporate governance
EURbn billion EUR
EURm million EUR
EV Electric vehicle
FA Fatal Accidents
FIT Feed-in tariff –
fixed electricity purchase tariff
FIP Feed-in premium –
fixed premium to the electricity market price
GHG Greenhouse Gas
Indicator Definition
GRI Global Reporting Initiative
GW Gigawatt
Installed capacity Where all assets have been completed and have passed a final test
Investments Acquisition of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets, acquisition of shareholdings
IRR Internal Rate of Return
MW Megawatt
MWe Megawatts electric
MWth Megawatt thermal
Net debt/
adjusted EBITDA
Leverage ratio, which shows the Group's ability to repay its debt from the profit earned.
PPA Power
purchase agreement
P2X Power to X
RAB Regulated asset base
ROCE Return on Capital Employed
SAIFI/SAIDI System Average Interruption Frequency Index/System Average Interruption Duration Index
SBTi Science Based Targets initiative
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
TCFD Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
TRIR Total recordable injury rate: Total recordable injuries x 1 million hours worked divided by all
hours worked during the reporting period.
TSR Total Shareholder Return
TWh Terawatt-hour
UN United Nations
vs. versus
WACC Weighted average cost of capital
WtE Waste-to-energy

Strategy update | Strategic plan 2023–2026

Ignitis Group │ 2023 May

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