Annual Report • Dec 2, 2010
Annual Report
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A Research Publication by DZ BANK AG
| Reuters: | M3VGn.DE | Bloomberg: | M3V GY | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year * | Sales | Adj. IFRS Earnings per sh. |
Cash flow per share |
PER | PCF | Dividend per share |
||||
| EUR m | EUR | EUR | EUR | |||||||
| 2009 | 13.9 | (ñ) | 0.23 | (ñ) | 1.91 | (ñ) | 101.6 | 12.5 | 0.00 | |
| 2010e | 14.0 | (ñ) | -0.33 | (ñ) | 2.27 | (ñ) | ñ | 6.7 | 0.00 | |
| 2011e | 14.9 | (ñ) | -0.26 | (ñ) | 2.64 | (ñ) | ñ | 5.7 | 0.00 | |
| 2012e | 15.5 | (ñ) | -0.02 | (ñ) | 2.78 | (ñ) | ñ | 5.4 | 0.00 | |
* Fiscal year end December ñ In brackets: Figures from the last publication
Start of coverage with recommendation hold and a fair value of EUR 16 per share
MeVis Medical Solutions is a technology and market leader in the field of software for digital breast screening and plans to leverage this know-how to other areas. This offers significant growth opportunities; however, we also see various risks involved in the new strategic direction. We therefore only recommend the stock for very risk-inclined investors. Our coverage kicks off with a hold rating.
| Selected | Price on | PER | EV / EBITDA | EV / | Re | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Companies | 29 Nov 2010 | 10e | 11e | 10e | 11e | Sales 10e | com. |
| MeVis Medical Solutions | 15.10 EUR | ñ | ñ | 5.7 | 5.6 | 1.52 | ! |
| CompuGroup Medical | 9.62 EUR | 30.6 | 19.4 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 2.01 | ñ |
| Merge Healthcare | 3.86 USD | 35.1 | 21.4 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 3.18 | ñ |
| icad Inc. | 1.50 USD | ñ | ñ | ñ | ñ | ñ | ñ |
| Sectra AB | 30.20 SEK | 30.2 | 16.1 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.02 | ñ |
| Median for all peer group companies | 30.6 | 19.4 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 2.01 | ñ |
Company Report 1 Dec 2010 Hold Closing price 29 Nov 2010 (in EUR): 15.10 Fair value: 16.00 Risk classification: 5 Financial ratios 2010e: Book value per share (in EUR): 19.07 Equity ratio (in %): 72.0 Net margin (in %): -3.3 ROE (in %): -1.7 Dividend yield (in %): 0.0 Free cash flow (EUR m): 3.8 Net debt (EUR m): -0.1 Number of shares (million units): 1.7 Market cap (in EUR m): 25.63 Free float (in %): 38.8 SIN: A0LBFE ISIN: DE000A0LBFE4 Datastream: D:M3V
n.a.
Author: Michael Bissinger, Analyst
1) ñ 9) Important: Please read the references to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures at the end of this report.
MeVis Medical Solutions AG was founded in Bremen in 1997. The company develops, produces and distributes analysis and diagnostic software for image-based medicine, especially CAD software (computer-aided detection) for digital radiology. The company has been listed on Deutsche Bˆrseís Prime Standard since 16.11.2007 and has a market capitalisation of around EUR 28m, of which around 13% are in free float.
The medical importance of data from modern digital imaging processes such as CT, MRT, ultra sound, mammography and tomosynthesis is growing steadily. This means not only a very rapid growth in the volume and complexity of data, but also in requirements in terms of effectiveness and efficiency in clinical radiology. Special software which allows physicians to filter out the relevant information and to make it useful is becoming ever more important in this context. MeVis has successfully occupied this market niche. The market for clinical screening and intervention software is set to benefit from global growth drivers such as an ageing population, greater focus on screening and also from calls for greater efficiency in healthcare systems. Market growth in CAD software is estimated at around 11%.
Together with its industrial partners, MeVis is in a leading position especially in the field of digital mammography. However, this also makes MeVis very strongly dependent on products in the breast-cancer indication (around 90% of sales) and also on OEM customers (90% of sales). MeVis sees limited growth opportunities through existing OEM distribution channels and in its existing indications. For this reason, it has developed the multi-application server VisiaTM Enterprise, for which it is currently generating new distribution channels. The aim is to distribute software applications independently from equipment manufacturers. In addition, through the planned takeover of Medis, MeVis is now planning to put more emphasis on direct distribution by expanding into the cardiovascular diseases indication.
We anticipate a gradual saturation of the market for digital mammography in the US, since 71% of facilities have already switched from analogue to digital. In contrast, we still see growth opportunities outside the US. Other growth drivers in the next few years are likely to be the VisiaTM platform with its applications and the consolidation of Medis from 2011. But we do see major risks, firstly if the company fails to find suitable distribution partners for VisiaTM applications and secondly if products fail to generate the projected acceptance, leading to the need for additional write-offs on capitalised own development costs. In addition, weak sales in the Other Diagnostics segment are currently depressing profitability significantly.
We anticipate an EPS CAGR (10-15e) of 4.4% and regard an EBIT margin of around 20% in 2015 as possible. Based on our estimates, a DCF (WACC of 10.5% and terminal growth rate of 1%) gives a value of EUR 16 per share. A peer-group comparison is not meaningful in view of limited profitability in 2010-12. Fair value: EUR 16.
MeVis is technology and market leader for software for digital mammography and is planning to leverage this know-how to other areas. This should offer substantial growth opportunities. However, we also see a number of risks in the new strategic direction. For that reason, we would only recommend the stock to very risk-inclined investors. We kick off our coverage with a hold rating.
Software manufacturer for image-based medicine
Market capitalisation: EUR 28m
to raise efficacy and efficiency of clinical radiology
CAD a growth market; 11% growth expected
New strategy:
Saturation in the field of digital mammography expected in the US market
VisiaTM Enterprise a potential growth driver
Fair value: EUR 16 per share
MeVis Medical Solutions AG was founded in Bremen in 1997. The company develops, produces and distributes software applications in the field of computer-assisted, image-based medicine, especially screening and diagnostic software for digital radiology. The company has been listed on Deutsche Bˆrseís Prime Standard since 16.11.2007 and has a market capitalisation of around EUR 28m, of which around 13.4% are in free float.
The companyís specialised software applications support physicians in their analysis of extensive image information from various imaging processes. MeVis software solutions are used in screening and diagnostics as well as in treatment and intervention planning in oncology ñ notably breast cancer ñ neurology and pulmonary diseases. In clinical terms, the company focuses on epidemiologically significant diseases.
Source: Siemens
The medical importance of data derived from modern imaging processes such as computer tomography (CT), magnetic resonance tomography (MRT), from ultra sound or mammography is growing steadily. Not only does this involve an enormous increase in the volume and complexity of the data in question, but also in requirements in terms of the effectiveness and efficiency of clinical radiology. Special software which allows physicians to filter out relevant information and make it useable is therefore becoming more and more important. MeVis occupies this market niche.
make clinical radiology more effective and efficient
Software manufacturer for imagebased medicine
Market capitalisation: EUR 28m
Niche supplier of software for early detection and diagnostics as well as for treatment and intervention planning
The company reports on two segments: Digital Mammography and Other Diagnostics. Two segments:
The Digital Mammography segment is involved in the development and marketing of software products to support image-based diagnostics and intervention in the area of breast screening. In addition to its original products for digital mammography, in 2009 the company added new software applications for further imaging processes such as ultrasound, magnetic resonance tomography, tomosynthesis, etc. These products are not distributed directly to radiology and clinical customers, but rather via industrial partners (such as Siemens and Hologic).
The Other Diagnostics segment includes both products for digital radiology (e.g. for MRT, CT etc.) and also for the general analysis and diagnostic of radiology images. The segment also offers tools for image and risk analysis for use in the planning of liver operations and tumour screening in the context of clinical trials carried out by pharmaceutical companies.
The company is very dependent on US-based industrial partners. In 2009, around 85% of sales in both segments were billed in the US. However, this does not directly reflect regional end markets.
Digital Mammography
Other Diagnostics
Other Diagnostics
industrial partners
Strong dependence on US-based
Source: MeVis Source: MeVis
At the moment, MeVis largely operates as an OEM (original equipment manufacturer), i.e. a manufacturer of finished components or products made by the company in question in its own factory, but not distributed by it. MeVis Medical Solutions has close strategic partnerships with leading manufacturers of medical technology equipment, including
This makes it possible to tap into market potential and achieve a deep market penetration without the need to set up an in-house distribution arm.
Distribution through cooperations with global medical technology companies
Deep market penetration possible without in-house distribution
In 2009, around 90% of distribution was through the equipment manufacturers mentioned above and only 10% of products were sold through direct distribution channels. However, the proportion of direct distribution together with specialised distribution partners has risen sharply in the past and is set to rise further.
Apart from the concept of multilateral partnerships, MeVis Medical Solutions also pursues a strategy of operational independence. The main features of this approach are independent product development, mainly on the companyís own initiative and at its own risk, market access through various strong OEM partners in the respective segment, and the fact that the MeVis product range is universal by sticking to industrial standards. At the same time, independence from individual OEM partners forms the precondition for an optimum use of clinical networks and cooperation with R&D partners.
MeVis planning to build up new distribution channels
Strategy aimed at operational independence
Source: MeVis
The Digital Mammography segment accounts for around 72% of the companyís total sales. In the past five years, Digital Mammography sales rose by an average of 48% p. a. In the last two years, however, the figure solely benefited from the carve-out of the Hologic business from the Siemens joint venture. Adjusted for this consolidation effect, sales in Digital Mammography fell by 2% p.a. in the period 2006 to 2009. This trend mainly reflected the postponement/reduction of investment plans on the part of hospitals and radiology centres and a slowing-down in sales cycles in the key US market. The US market has been picking up again slightly since Q4 2009.
Sales rose 10.5% against a weak previous year in 9M 2010. However, there are still signs that the key US market is losing momentum with respect to new business in Digital Mammography, although this has been offset partly by a positive trend outside the US. Whereas licence revenue was down overall, there was a very healthy performance from maintenance revenue (+70%).
The Other Diagnostics segment accounts for around 28% of the companyís total sales. Sales in Other Diagnostics rose by an average of 57% p.a. in the last five years and by an average of 18% p.a. in the last three years. The increase is largely based on the introduction of new products.
Sales in Other Diagnostics were uneven in 9M 2010 as markets stagnated overall. Despite new products in neurology, prostate and lung diagnostics, 9M 2010 have been generally disappointing for the company. A 7.5% decrease in sales was below company expectations, and new products in particular failed to reach the expected volume sales figures.
In 2009, new products contributed around EUR 1.5m (+11%) and acquisitions over EUR 4.5m (> 30%) to sales revenue.
Source: MeVis Source: MeVis
Digital Mammography: five-year comparison: +48% p.a. three-year comparison: adj. -2% p.a.
9M 2010: sales +10.5%, positive trend for maintenance revenue
five-year comparison: +57% p.a. three-year comparison: +18% p.a.
The EBIT performance was very uneven. Whereas Digital Mammography posted a stable EBIT margin of 50% - 60%, profitability in Other Diagnostics has been strongly affected by development costs and, since 2009, also by planed write-offs on capitalised development costs. These costs have risen sharply, especially in the last few years, on the back of the development of the VisiaTM Enterprise platform technologies.
Whereas EBITDA rose from EUR 2.6m to EUR 3.5m in 9M 2010, and the EBITDA margin rose from 21.7% to 26.5%, EBIT was flat in relation to the previous year on the back of an increase in write-offs on development costs. EBIT in Digital Mammography was in line with the previous year at EUR 4.4m; however, the EBIT margin fell from 60.8% to 53.6%. Compared to the previous year, the EBIT loss in Other Diagnostics improved slightly from EUR 4.0m to 3.5m, although there was a slight improvement in EBIT margin from -140% to -130%.
100%
Source: MeVis Source: MeVis
Based on FDA figures, 71% of mammography facilities in the US have now switched from analogue to digital. At the same time, the market in the US has declined slightly as reflected in a fall in the number of facilities from 8,833 in 2007 to 8,643 in October 2010. We suspect that this reflects a trend towards specialised facilities each processing a larger number of cases. It is therefore becoming increasingly important to optimise work processes in order to be able to handle a growing volume of cases per facility. Through its partner Hologic, MeVis has an indirect market share of around 60% in the field of digital mammography in the US.
It is likely that growth in the US in the field of digital mammography is set to slow down in the medium term since 70% of facilities offering this service have now switched from analogue to digital and the positive effect from this switch is dwindling. In addition, various states announced on 17.08.2010 that they intend to cut back their budget for breast-cancer screening programmes.
In contrast, there are still significant growth opportunities outside the US, since here the switch from analogue to digital equipment has so far been much slower and only around 30% of equipment has been switched. Frost & Sullivan puts market growth in the European market for mammography systems in the period 2007 ñ 2014 at around 5% to 7%.
Digital Mammography: around 71% of facilities have already switched to digital
Around 60% market share in the US
Marked in the US expected to slow down
Growth potential of 5% to 7% p.a. expected outside the US
Stable EBIT margin of 50% to 60% in Digital Mammography
Other Diagnostics strongly affected by development costs
DIGITALISATION OF US MAMMOGRAPHY FACILITIES REGIONAL BREAKDOWN OF INSTALLED BASE
Source: FDA, MeVis; http://tiny.cc/gTwdU Source: MeVis estimates
A CAD system supports the physician in the analysis of image data and diagnosis. Various studies demonstrate that the use of CAD can reduce the risk of diagnostic errors by up to 20%. These systems are used among other things in the field of mammography, lung, pancreatic and colon cancer. Mammography currently accounts for around 85% of the US market for CAD systems. Along with a Siemens solution, the R2 Technologyís Image Checker which MeVis acquired in 2008 is the only CAD system for diagnosing lung cancer that is FAD approved. Provisional results of the long-term National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) carried out by the US National Cancer Institute published at the beginning of November 2010 have shown that the mortality rate in lung cancer can be cut by over 20% by using CT screening.
MeVis has developed various products in this field which are already on the market or will be launched in the next few years. Opportunities are seen mainly in the lung and colon indications. The market for colon CAD (virtual coloscopy) is expected to grow to around USD 70m in the next three years. So far, only iCad has FDA approval in this field. Overall, the market is still relatively small and dominated by just a few major players such as Hologic, FUJIFILM, GE or Siemens and by specialised suppliers such as iCad and Carestream Health. MeVis is mainly present in this area as an OEM partner for Hologic, Siemens and Philips.
Based on a study carried out by Elsevier Business Intelligence dated January 2010, the computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) market is expected to grow by around 11% p.a. until 2013. The market should then be worth around USD 185m by 2013.
MeVis sees itself as technology and market leader in the field of digital mammography and now intends to use this know-how in other areas. MeVisís corporate vision is aimed at becoming the worldís leading independent manufacturer (in cooperation with a team of experts from around the world) and supplier of disease-oriented software applications for image-assisted diagnostic, intervention and surgical planning processes in medicine. As part of the process, the company will concentrate on image-based early detection and diagnosis of epidemiologically significant diseases, especially cancer. The company is now extending its focus to the area of cardiovascular diseases through the acquisition of a holding in Medis in 2010.
CAD: Computer-assisted diagnostics
CAD in the field of lung cancer can cut mortality rate by over 20%
Significant potential in lung and colon screening
CAD Market growth of around 11% expected
Aim: leading manufacturer of diseaseoriented software
Focus on:
The VisiaTM Enterprise multi-application server based on the MeVisAP platform is becoming a much more central part of the implementation of the new company strategy in future. VisiaTM Enterprise comes with basic functionalities which are also required in most MeVis products, such as calling up patient and trial data from a data archive, displaying this information on a screen, interactive navigating into accompanying image data, marking the image data or carrying out simple geometric measurements on these images. Apart from the basic functions mentioned for calling up and displaying patient and image data and for collating diagnostic information, VisiaTM Enterprise also offers fundamental software components for storing and distributing the data in a client-server environment, communicating with other servers using the DICOM standard for memory and resource management, etc.
The implementation of these functions onto a joint platform can help speed up the development of new software products significantly, since a large part of the functionality is available centrally and will not therefore have to be developed all over again for each new product. In addition, it will be possible to make available components which have already been developed for a product in the context of the platform for the development of other products ñ even across business areas ñ thus avoiding parallel developments and using synergies. Since hospitals are generally unlikely to want to increase the number of workstations even further, we believe that there is a market for a client server such as VisiaTM Enterprise.
...secure strong growth
The companyís strategy envisages a greater expansion of direct distribution as well as distribution through third parties apart from current OEM partners, e.g. with PACS manufacturers (picture archiving and communication system) or with service providers in the field of imaging using the independent VisiaTM Enterprise. MeVis Medical Solutions already has a smaller direct distribution arm through the acquisition of a stake in Medis at the beginning of 2010. For us it is likely that Medis will be acquired in full in 2011.
An important element for the success of the strategy, and especially for VisiaTM Enterprise, will be for MeVis to find a partner for its direct distribution in the next few months.
However, the company does not plan to concentrate on direct distribution alone. Rather, the strategy also envisages intensifying its OEM partnerships and expanding them further. Substantial potential is seen in this area, above all outside the US.
Various products were launched in 2009 which are expected to lead to increases in sales revenue from 2010 onwards. These include various products which are distributed by industrial partner Siemens, such as an application for the new multifunctional ultrasound breast scanner ACUSON S2000 or applications for the syngo.MammoReport which offers important clinical functions, such as providing the radiologist a diagnostic evaluation of MRT breast images and facilitating the taking of a tissue sample to clarify important clinical findings, if necessary. According to Siemens AG, sales of the ACUSON 2000 have started promising. MeVis supplies reading and reporting software for industrial partner Hologicís SecurView diagnostic workstation providing innovative, cross-modal work processes.
As the next illustration shows, the focus is now on product launches under the companyís own brand Visia with applications in conjunction with the VisaTM Enterprise platform. The market launch of Visia Enterprise is scheduled from Q3 2010 onwards via Medisís distribution arm. Products such as the Visia Lung Suite, which allows a precise monitoring of the progress of lung tumours, treatment monitoring, preoperative planning of surgical procedures on the lungs and the analysis of pulmonary vessel diseases, are expected to be launched in 2011. Market launch of the Visia virtual coloscopy product is expected after 2011.
In addition, the first joint product with Medis in the field of cardiovascular diseases based on the Visia platform will be launched at the end of 2010/beginning of 2011. Following the takeover of Medis, MeVis is expected to place a much greater emphasis on cardiovascular diseases.
Direct distribution to be expanded Medis acquisition an important part
Complete takeover expected in 2011
MeVis currently searching for a partner for direct distribution
OEM distribution remains a major pillar
Various product launches in 2009
Spotlight on Visia applications from 2011 onwards
Focus on cardiovascular diseases
| MEVIS PRODUCTS AND PRODUCT LAUNCHES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Important market introductions since IPO | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
| syngo.MammoReportô (Tomosynthesis/ABVS) | |||||
| syngo.MammoReportô (Multi-Application) | |||||
| ACUSON S2000ô (ABVS) | |||||
| syngo.BreVisô (MRI and Biopsy) | |||||
| SecurViewô DX 6.0 (Tomosynthesis) | |||||
| SecurViewô DX 7.0 (Multi-modal) | |||||
| Visiaô Lung (CT System) | |||||
| Visiaô Lung Suite (3D) | |||||
| DynaSuiteÆ Neuro (MRI) | |||||
| DynaCADÆ Prostate (MRI and Biopsy) | |||||
| Visiaô-Virtual Colonoscopy (CT) | |||||
| Visiaô-cardio-vascular (MRI) | |||||
Source: MeVis
As already outlined in the business model section, the companyís clinical focus is on epidemiologically significant diseases ñ and until now, this has meant mainly cancer, but more recently, it has extended to take in cardiovascular diseases.
According to WHO statistics, there are around 12.7m new cancer cases p.a. (around 6.6m men and around 6m women). In addition, around 7.6m people die of cancer every year.
Lung and prostate cancer are the most prevalent types of cancer worldwide among men (34% and 28.5% of all cases respectively). However, the incidence varies significantly from one region to another. In Germany for example, prostate and colon cancer are the most prevalent types of cancer at 26% and 15.8% respectively according to RKI figures.
In the case of women, the most prevalent forms of cancer worldwide are breast (39%) and cervical cancer (15.2%). In Germany, breast cancer accounts for around 30% of new cancer cases and colon cancer for around 16%.
One example of strong regional differences based on figures collated by the German Cancer Society is breast cancer. In the US, over six times as many women get breast cancer as in Japan; in Germany, almost five times as many. There is hardly any change in the breast-cancer risk of Japanese women who move to the States; however, the risk for their daughters and even more so for their grand-daughters moves close to the high risk facing American women.
incidence diseases
Company focus based on high-
12.7m new cases of cancer p.a.
Most prevalent worldwide among men:
Most prevalent among women worldwide:
Marked regional differences in terms of incidence
Source: WHO Source: WHO
MeVis has extended the field of software applications for cardiovascular diseases through the acquisition of a stake in Medis in 2010.
Cardiovascular diseases are a class of diseases involving the heart and/or blood vessels. More broadly speaking, the term includes all diseases involving the cardiovascular system. According to WHO figures, more people die of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) every year than of all other diseases together.
In 2004, around 17.1m people died of CVDs, accounting for around 29% of all deaths worldwide. Of these, around 7.2m died of coronary heart disease and around 5.7m of stroke. Countries with low and middle incomes account for 82% of all CVDrelated deaths.
It is estimated that the number of CVD-related deaths is set to rise to around 23.6m p.a. by 2030. The main causes will still be heart disease and stroke.
Cardiovascular diseases are the most frequent cause of death in Germany. Around every second death is related to CVD and older people are especially badly affected.
There are many reasons for CVDs. As typical civilization diseases, cases are fuelled by a number of ìcardiovascularî risks factors. These include:
PREVALENCE OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES VON 100.000
Cardiovascular diseases a major cause of death
CVDs accounted for 17.1m deaths in 2004
Sharp increase in CVD expected
CVDs account for every second death in Germany
Reason: civilization diseases
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cardiovascular_diseases_world_map_-_DALY_-_WHO2004.svg
Since Q4 2009, the company has seen a slight upturn in the US market. Until Q3 2010 the market dynamic has yet not returned to pre-2009 crisis level. According to MeVis this is mainly due to reluctance to investment of clinical endcustomers especially in the important US-market. This will burden the development in 2010.
Overall, the company expects for the group a moderate increase in sales by around 1% to EUR 14m. Digital Mammography is expected to contribute around 75% to sales and Other Diagnostics around 25%.
The company expects a small negative EBIT based on the forecast of slight sales growth. Profitability is likely to be depressed by a rise in write-off requirements on capitalised own R&D work.
In the medium term, a significant contribution to sales growth is expected mainly from Other Diagnostics with VisiaTM Enterprise and related applications. The VisiaTM Enterprise projects currently in development and related applications should be ready within the next 12 to 18 months. The company expects the projects to make a substantial contribution to sales growth after market launch, and the current R&D team will be able to start on new projects, especially in the field of cardiovascular diseases.
The new VisiaTM Lung has been developed based on VisiaTM Enterprise technology and is the first product in a series of disease-oriented applications which are scheduled to be brought to market in the next few markets. These new products relate to applications in liver, breast, lung, neurology, prostate and colon, and are set to have a marked impact on sales and profitability in the next two years. MeVis has indicated that it is holding back before it files for FDA approval for the virtual colcoscopy application, as a result of which, it will not be among the first movers in this area.
If sales do not increase as expected, a reduction in the cost base could also be a possibility. The imbalance between write-offs on, and the capitalisation of own work is expected to be evened out again from 2011 onwards.
Market has picked up momentum again slightly
Slight sales growth expected in 2010
Small negative EBIT
Other Diagnostics segment as growth driver
Current projects should be completed in 12 - 18 months
MeVis not a first mover in virtual colcoscopy
Reduction in high R&D costs also a possibility
The company had cash and cash equivalents of around EUR 13.6m on 30.09.2010. Against this, it had outstanding liabilities totalling around EUR 12.3m from the acquisition of Hologicís business and of the R2 Image Checker-CT. The situation of liquidity was descriped as sufficient by the company.
The company reports intangible assets of around EUR 27.4m. Of this, reported goodwill accounts for around EUR 16.6m, of which EUR 12.5m from the takeover of the Hologic business and around EUR 4m from the takeover of the R2 Image Checker-CT.
The company reported equity of around EUR 33.1m at 30.09.2010, of which underlying intangible assets account for around 83% and underlying goodwill for around 50%. The equity ratio was 64% on 30.06.2010.
Intangible assets are relatively high compared with equity at 83%. For this reason, there is a danger that equity could be eaten up if the performance of the respective product does not go according to plan and write-offs have to be made on the respective goods and capitalised development costs. Overall, however, as things stand at present, the balance sheet can be described as healthy.
As the following graph shows, there has been a slight upturn in sales for peer-group companies since the end of 2009. We have only used the most closely comparable segments for this analysis.
Source: Bloomberg; DZ BANK
Overall, we regard the market for software in the field of computer-aided diagnosis as very interesting and promising. This area is likely to benefit from global growth drivers such as an ageing population, greater emphasis on screening and also from calls for more efficiency in healthcare systems. As outlined in the section on positioning, we expect just under two-digit market growth in the medium term.
However, in its current guise as an OEM company, MeVis is strongly dependent on the success of its respective industrial partners. Various healthcare reforms aimed at slowing down the rise in spending on healthcare have led to a decline in investment
CAD ñ a growth market
Currently strong dependence on success of OEM partners
Cash of around EUR 13.6m and liabilities from acquisitions of around EUR 12.9m
EUR 27.4m in intangible assets
Equity ratio: 64% underlying goodwill accounts for 50% of equity
Risk from write-offs
Healthy balance sheet overall
in large medical equipment in the US since 2006. It is also possible that the recession will lead to a further delay in investment, especially in the US, but also in European countries with a large state debt and budget deficits. It is much more difficult to win customers over to new and innovative equipment and software at times of tight investment budgets, unless they bring clear cost advantages.
The restructuring of MeVisís distribution arm with a greater emphasis firstly on direct distribution through the acquisition of a stake in Medis which has its own distribution and secondly through distribution in cooperation with specialised distribution partners should open up significant growth opportunities. At the same time, however, this move will also involve major risks. In particular, the risk of rising fixed costs for direct distribution and the risk involved in the choice of a suitable partner for distribution (especially for the VisiaTM Enterprise) should not be underestimated.
In Digital Mammography, the companyís biggest segment, we expect the sale of new licences in the US to decline in the next few years in view of an already high switch rate from analogue to digital equipment (71%). However, we assume that maintenance revenue should continue to rise slightly and will continue to provide a steady inflow in view of the increase in installed base. In contrast, we still see significant development opportunities outside the US and anticipate growth of around 7% p.a. In addition, new applications such as for the ACUSON S2000 should make a bigger contribution to sales in future.
In the Other Diagnostics segment, the future sales trend is likely to depend to a very large extent on the success of VisiaTM Enterprise and applications which have been developed for this system. MeVis expects to be able to name a partner for the distribution of the VisiaTM Enterprise by 2011.
Overall, the companyís performance in 9M 2010 and expansion of its market position with new products in neurology, prostate and lung diagnostics was uneven and on balance disappointing in a stagnating overall market. From 2H onwards, Other Diagnostics and notably the VisiaTM CT Lung product, should contribute to sales growth, reflecting the web-based integration in to Vital Imagesís Vitrea Enterprise Suite which took place at the end of Q2. The suite has a large installation base.
We assume that Medis will be fully taken over in 2011. According to the company, the purchase price could be paid for in full in own shares. The consolidation of and cooperation with Medis and hence the extension of MeVisís business model to the field of applications for cardiovascular diseases should be a major step forward for MeVis on the road to achieving critical mass. In the longer term, this larger unit should be able to cope with a current strong expansion in the R&D activities including current business ties with Frauenhofer MEVIS (formerly MeVis Research GmbH). We assume that the possible first-time consolidation of Medis in 2011 will lead to an increase in sales revenue of around EUR 3m.
Overall, we expect a sales CAGR (2010-13) of around 4.7%. A potential consolidation of Medis would increace the CAGR (2010-13) to around 12.7%. We have assumed a marked improvement in acceptance for the new products and in sales generated from these products in relation to 2010. However, estimates are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Firstly, we see a big risk for our forecast if MeVis fails to find a suitable distribution partner for the new core products based on the VisiaTM Enterprise platform. We also see risks if the company is unable to sign any
9M well below expectations
First-time consolidation of Medis expected in 2011
Big step towards critical mass
Sales CAGR (10-13): 4.7%...
...but with a number of uncertainties attached
further OEM contracts or cannot carry on existing contracts, since we regard the OEM distribution channel as the most important as strongest in terms of volume.
Source: DZ BANK estimates
We expect a decline in margin in Digital Mammography in the next few years; this assumes a sharper rise in sales outside the US where licence prices are lower.
There should be a sharp rise in EBIT in Other Diagnostics. Firstly, the expected sales growth should contribute to an improvement in margin and secondly, we assume that high development costs, especially for the VisiaTM Enterprise, can be brought down again after market launch.
Overall, we assume that MeVis will generate a fairly low margin in 2010 and 2011 as a result of the negative impact of development costs, the extension of its distribution concept and the integration of Medis. The EBIT margin could rise to around 20% by 2015. However, if sales in Other Diagnostics remain well behind estimates, then higher internal and external R&D costs would neutralise any earnings. This would then call for a substantial restructuring programme.
EXPECTED EBIT PERFORMANCE MARGIN PERFORMANCE BY SEGMENT -8000 -4000 4000 8000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Digital Mammography Other Diagnostics Others total
Source: DZ BANK estimates Source: DZ BANK estimates
Digital Mammography: decline in margin expected
Other Diagnostics: marked recovery in margin expected
Target EBIT margin: just under 20%
Our valuation of the company is based on a DCF analysis to work out the stockís fair value and a market-oriented peer-group comparison.
Our DCF analysis (terminal growth rate of 1% and WACC of 10.5%) gives a current fair value of EUR 16 per share. We expect an EBIT margin of around 20% in the perpetuity year. Around 80% of the figure should come from the perpetuity year. DCF value: EUR 16 per share
| DCF ANALYSIS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data from company to be valued | ||||||
| Growth rate of perpetuity | 1.0% | |||||
| Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) | 10.45% | |||||
| (Capital cost are specifically calculated for each particular period) |
||||||
| Euro m | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e |
| Adjusted EBIT | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| Taxes on EBIT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| Cash Taxes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| + Depreciations (-Reversals) | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| - Investments (+Proceeds from sale) | -3.9 | -4.3 | -3.7 | -3.9 | -4.1 | -4.1 |
| Change in working capital | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Other changes | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Present value of free cash flows | 21.6 | |||||
| Market value of non-operating assets | 0.0 | |||||
| Financial and liquid assets | 16.4 | |||||
| Enterprise value, beginning of period | 38.0 | |||||
| Liabilities | -14.5 | |||||
| Provisions (inc. provisions for pensions) | 0.0 | |||||
| Equity value incl. minority interest, bop | 23.5 | |||||
| Value of minority interest | 0.0 | |||||
| Correction of liabilities by convertible bonds | 0.0 | |||||
| EQV excl. minority interest, bop | 23.5 | |||||
| Accumulation till effective valuation date (with KE rate) |
3.6 | |||||
| EQV excl. minority interest at valuation date | 27.1 | |||||
| Equity value per share, diluted (EUR) | 16.0 | |||||
| Fiscal year end December | ||||||
Source: MeVis Medical Solutions and DZ BANK estimates
Source: DZ BANK
In our peer-group valuation, we have worked out a value for MeVis based on a multiples comparison with its peers. For this valuation, we selected a group of peers among listed companies which concentrate on similar activities.
We have identified the following companies as suitable peers:
Peer group
digital pictures. The company is active in the cardiovascular, neuro and cancer indications. It also offers a virtual coloscopy product. In 2009, the company generated sales of USD 58.2m against USD 68.1m in 2008.
| Equity ratios company | Price in local currency |
Currency | Market cap. | P/CF | P/E | EPS CAGR |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.11.2010 | (m EUR) | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 09-13e | 2010e | ||
| CompuGROUP Holding AG | 10,0 | EUR | 530,3 | 10,3 | 8,6 | 7,0 | 31,7 | 20,1 | 14,6 | 35,3% | 0,9 |
| icad Inc. | 1,5 | USD | 51,6 | n/a | n/a | n/a | neg. | neg. | n/a | ||
| Medicsight PLC | 4,9 | GBP | 9,2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||
| Medipattern Corp. | 0,1 | CAD | 3,2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | neg. | n/a | n/a | ||
| Merge Healthcare Inc. * | 3,9 | USD | 251,0 | n/a | 196,0 | 11,9 | 35,6 | 21,8 | 13,5 | 20,9% | 1,7 |
| Pro Medicus Ltd. | 0, 5 | AUD | 37,7 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 13,1 | 9,3 | 9,0 | 8.2% | 1,6 |
| RaySearch Laboratories AB * | 34,5 | SEK | 130,0 | 69,0 | 20,1 | 17,1 | 44,8 | 23,5 | 17,9 | 34,3% | 1,3 |
| Sectra AB * | 30,0 | SEK | 120,6 | 12,4 | 9,6 | 8,2 | 30,0 | 16,0 | 10,7 | 74,5% | 0,4 |
| Vital Images Inc. * | 13,5 | USD | 145,3 | n/a | n/a | n/a | neg. | 1348,0 | 89,9 | ||
| MeVis Medical Solutions AG | 15,10 | EUR | 25,6 | 6,7 | 5,7 | 5,4 | neg. | neg. | neg. | 22,6% | |
| Geom. Mean | 63,8 | 20,7 | 23,8 | 10,4 | 28,8 | 35,7 | 17,7 | 27,4% | 1,1 | ||
| Deviation | $-68%$ | $-76%$ | $-48%$ | ||||||||
| Median | 120,6 | 12,4 | 14,8 | 10,1 | 31,7 | 20,9 | 14,0 | 34,3% | 1,3 | ||
| Deviation | $-47%$ | $-61%$ | $-46%$ | $-34%$ |
Source: FactSet, DZ BANK
In view of the limited profitability of MeVis and of most companies in the peer group, a comparison based on equity value multiples does not seem meaningful. Equity ratios not meaningful
| EV ratios company | $EV$ (m EUR) |
EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA | EBITDA margin | EBITDA CAGR |
EV/EBITDA to EBITDA- CAGR |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010e | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | $09-13e$ | 2010e | |
| CompuGROUP Holding AG | 665,8 | 2,0 | 1,6 | 1,5 | 9,5 | 7,3 | 6,5 | 21,1% | 22,2% | 23,1% | 16,1% | 0,6 |
| icad Inc. | 51,6 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||
| Medicsight PLC | 9,2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||
| Medipattern Corp. | 3,2 | 14,1 | n/a | |||||||||
| Merge Healthcare Inc. ° | 377,9 | 3,2 | 2,1 | 1,8 | 12,5 | 9,0 | 7,3 | 25,6% | 23,2% | 24,6% | 34,8% | 0,4 |
| Pro Medicus Ltd. | 34,9 | 2,6 | 2,6 | 2,4 | 7,8 | 6,0 | 5,3 | 32,9% | 43,1% | 44,5% | 15,2% | 0,5 |
| RaySearch Laboratories AB | 120,5 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 6,3 | 16,5 | 11,1 | 9,2 | 57,4% | 64,3% | 68,5% | 36,4% | 0,5 |
| Sectra AB | 103,1 | 1,0 | 0.9 | 0,7 | 9,1 | 5,8 | 4,4 | 11,0% | 14,6% | 16.4% | 43,4% | 0,2 |
| Vital Images Inc. | 55,3 | 1,2 | 14,1 | n/a | n/a | 8,4% | 8,2% | |||||
| MeVis Medical Solutions AG | 25,5 | 1,5 | 1,5 | 1,4 | 5,7 | 5,6 | 5,2 | 26,4% | 27,2% | 27,3% | 6,4% | 0,9 |
| Geom. Mean | 3,1 | 2,2 | 2,0 | 11,2 | 7,6 | 6,4 | 21,4% | 23,6% | 30,9% | 26,6% | 40,2% | |
| Deviation | $-51%$ | $-32%$ | $-28%$ | -49% | $-27%$ | $-18%$ | 122% | |||||
| Median | 2,6 | 2.1 | 1,8 | 11,0 | 7,3 | 6,5 | 23,4% | 22,7% | 24,6% | 34,8% | 0,5 | |
| Deviation | $-41%$ | $-28%$ | $-21%$ | $-48%$ | $-24%$ | $-20%$ | 96% |
Source: FactSet, DZ BANK
The company is fairly valued based on EV multiples. However, it is important to bear in mind that MeVis books very high write-offs which largely wipe out EBITDA.
Overall, a peer-group comparison is very difficult since the leading companies in question are mostly subsidiaries of large conglomerates such as Siemens, GE and Phillips, and their multiples cannot be used because of the dominance of other activities. The few listed companies are relatively small. Few estimates are available and the companies in question are not yet profitable. For this reason, a peer-group comparison is not particularly meaningful.
Strengths
Opportunities
Source: DZ BANK
In view of a strong position in digital mammography, of partnerships built up with leading medical technology companies and a high level of technical know-how, MeVis stands a good chance of transferring these competencies to other areas. However, we also foresee various risks within the company. We see a strong focus on the development of the VisiaTM Enterprise platform in particular and a low acceptance at the moment for new products as the main risks. All in all, we rate the riskopportunity profile as evenly balanced.
Weaknesses
Risks
| We calculate a fair value of EUR 16 per share based on our DCF analysis. We therefore kick off our coverage of MeVis Medical Solutions AG with a hold rating. |
Recommendation: hold Fair value: EUR 16 per share |
|---|---|
| We regard special software which will allow physicians to filter out important informa tion for picture data and make it useable as a market for the future, which MeVis should occupy successfully. We estimate market growth at around 11%. |
CAD a growth market 11% growth expected |
| We see the following as major catalysts for the stockís future performance (effect): | Catalysts |
| - results for FY 2010 (+/-) |
|
| - possible write-offs on intangible assets (--) |
|
| announcement of a suitable distribution partner for VisiaTM Enterprise (++) - |
|
| successful market launch of VisiaTM Enterprise applications (+) - |
|
| - spread of digital mammography outside the US (+) |
|
| - acceptance of new products (+/--) |
|
| - introduction of reimbursed lung cancer screening in the US (+++) |
|
| - full take-over of Medis in 2011 (+/-) |
|
| - potential take-over of MeVis (+) |
|
| All in all, we would currently recommend that investors should wait until the risk opportunity profile moves into positive territory on the back of positive news flow on |
Investors should wait until the risk opportunity profile becomes positive |
the above-mentioned events. If investing, it is important to bear in mind a market
capitalisation of around EUR 30m and limited free float of around 13%.
MeVis Medical Solutions AG (MMS AG) owns various subsidiaries. As part of a joint venture with Siemens AG, MMS AG owns a 51% stake in MeVis BreastCare GmbH & Co. KG (MBC KG). MBC KG mainly specialises in the field of multi-modal diagnostic systems for early detection, diagnostic and therapy support in breast disease. The software applications are included in the diagnostic workstations which are distributed by industrial partner Siemens under the MammoReport, syngo BreVis and ACUSON S2000 brand names.
As per contract dated 21.10.2008, the business with industrial partner Hologic was carved from MBC KG with back-dated effect from 1.07.2008 and included into the newly created MeVis BreastCare Solutions GmbH & Co. KG (MBS KG). First-time consolidation was on 1.11.2008. Industrial partner Hologicís diagnostic workstations are distributed under the brand name SecurView.
MeVis Medical Solutions, Inc. (MMS Inc.) supports the MeVis Group in distributing its products outside the US market. MeVis Japan KK was founded in 2009 and aims to support distribution in Japan.
MeVis acquired an initial stake in Medis Holding B.V. in 2010; the company is active in the field of cardiovascular imaging.
The MeVisLab software technology was acquired from MRE GmbH in 2007 for the purpose of rapid prototyping of software solutions in the field of imaging medicine. The software stands out by enabling a modular joining of various previously developed applications in the field of image-based medicine; it leads to a significant reduction in existing development processes. The software was acquired for EUR 925,000.
Foreign subsidiaries:
Stake in Medis
MeVisLab
MeVis acquired the ImageChecker CT Lung CAD business from R2 Technologies, a company in the Hologic Group, in April 2008. The software was launched in Q3 2008 and now trades under the name VistaCT Lung. This is highly specific software for the automatic detection of lung nodules or patches and of pulmonary embolisms in multilayer screening using CT. Computer-aided detection (CAD) helps physicians in the early detection of lung cancer. Purchase costs amounted to a total of USD 9m and are due in several tranches up to 30.09.2010. The purchase led to goodwill of EUR 3.6m. At the time of acquisition, the division generated sales of around EUR 372,000 and an annual loss of EUR 664,000.
Software Colotux was acquired in October 2008 for a total of EUR 220,000. Half the purchase price was paid for in own shares. The product in question is a software solution for virtual coloscopy. The colon can quickly be skimmed over in both directions using rapid 3D surface visualisation of CT picture data, and suspicious polyps can be spotted using CAD.
MeVis signed a contract with Siemens for the full carve-out of the Hologic business unit from the MeVis BreastCare GmbH & Co. KG joint venture and ensuing proportionate acquisition of the business in question. The acquisition involves 49% of Siemensís share in subsidiary MBS KGís net assets. The purchase price amounted to a total of EUR 17.5m and consists of a cash component plus a licence credit and is due in several tranches up to probably 2013. The purchase price comes with a number of conditions and the acquisition has led to goodwill of EUR 12.5m.
Return of 25.1% stake in MeVis Research GmbH to the Free Hanseatic City of Bremen as part of a conversion of the non-profit GmbH into the Frauenhofer-Institut f¸r Bildgest¸tzte Medizin MeVis. The conversion of the MeVis Research GmbH research institute into an institute of the Fraunhofer Company aims to widen the groupís research base even further. There are plans to double research capacity at the Fraunhofer MEVIS-Institut f¸r Bildgest¸tzte Medizin in the next few years.
A contract was signed on 15 January covering the merger of business activities together with a gradual acquisition of a stake in the capital of Medis Holding B.V., Leiden, up to 100%. The acquisition will go ahead in three set steps up to 2011 and could go hand-in-hand with a subsequent earn-out. As a first step, a cash capital payment of EUR 0.4m will be made, equating to a stake in the company of around 14%.
Medis develops software solutions which allow cardiologists, technicians and researchers a precise quantification of cardiovascular image data. The companyís products are geared to the image-based diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases using MRT, CT, X-rays and intravascular ultrasound.
A further 27% of Medis was acquired in June 2010. The price of EUR 0.87m consists of a cash component of EUR 0.5m plus own shares to a value of EURK 367. R2 ImageChecker CT
CAD for lung diseases
Virtual coloscopy
Return of stake in MeVis-Research
Gradual acquisition of Medis Holding B.V.
Acquisition of 14% stake as a first step
Medis: focus on cardiovascular diseases
Overall, the company has spent around EUR 25m on acquiring technologies in the last few years. Of this, there were still liabilities outstanding of around EUR 12.3m at 30.09.2010, of which around EUR 6.2m are due for payment in 2H 2010.
Around EUR 25m spent on acquisi-
The Executive Board of MeVis Medical Solutions AG consists of three members.
Dr. Carl J.G. Evertsz (CEO) is co-founder of MeVis-Research GmbH and of MeVis Medical Solutions AG. He studied Physics, obtaining his doctorate in Groningen, and worked as a scientist at Yale University. He has written over 60 publications in the field of medical image data analysis, computer-aided diagnosis, financial mathematics and fractal geometry. CEO, Dr. Carl J. G. Evertsz
On 23.07.2010, the company announced the appointment of Dr. Robert Hannemann as CFO with effect from 1.10.2010. Dr. Hannemann studied Chemistry and worked as consultant and project leader of the Boston Consulting Group and in various management positions in various sectors. He replaced Christian Seefeldt, who had been the companyís CFO since 1.01.2009; Herr Seefeldt resigned from his post for personal reasons.
Thomas E. Tynes (Marketing & Sales) has been a member of the board of MeVis Medical Solutions AG since August 2007. He studied Business Management in the US and has worked among other things as General Manager at IGC Medical Advances; he co-founded Eye Prosthetics of Wisconsin and was Director Clinical Solutions of Invivo Corporation (now Philips).
At EUR 55, the placing price was at the lower end of the price range of EUR 55-65 per share. The issue raised EUR 42.7m, of which EUR 28.6m went to the company.
MeVis Medical Solutions has been listed on the Prime Standard since 16.11.2007. The IPO consisted of a total of 776,866 shares of which 520,000 shares from a capital increase, 159,366 shares from the holdings of existing shareholders and up to a further 97,500 shares from a Greenshoe option. All shares on offer were allocated. IPO on 16.11.2007 Inflow of funds of around EUR 29m
1) ñ 9) Important: Please read the references to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures at the end of this report.
New CFO as per 1.10.2010, Dr. Robert Hannemann
Marketing & Sales, Thomas E. Tynes
The AGM on 10.06.2010 rescinded the previous authorised capital of EUR 650,000, of which only EUR 130,000 EUR 130,000 was left after use.
At the same time, the AGM allowed new authorised capital of up to EUR 910,000 through one or several issues of new registered shares against cash or assets in kind up to 9 June 2015.
In addition, the company has been authorised to buy back up to 10% of the share capital up to June 2015. A previous authorisation ran out at the beginning of 2010. Potential buyback of 10% of own shares
The majority of shares (around 57%) are held by the founding members, of which Dr. Carl J. G. Evertsz (CEO) holds ~19.9%, Prof. Dr. Heinz-Otto Peitgen (Chairman of the Supervisory Board) ~19.9% and Dr. Hartmut J¸rgens ~16.9%. The company itself owns around 5.8% of its shares; these are to be used among other things to fund the acquisition of Medis.
SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE
Source: MeVis
Rescinding of previous authorised capital
New authorised capital of EUR 910,000
Free float ~13%
The companyís dividend policy envisages that a dividend will be paid out under the following conditions:
Under these conditions, half the HGB net profit should be paid out.
* Entspricht ca. der H‰lfte der immateriellen Vermˆgenswerte
Source: MeVis
Frauenhofer-MEVIS originally arose from the Centrum f¸r Medizinische Diagnosesysteme und Visualisierung GmbH, which was founded in August 1995 by Prof. Dr. Heinz-Otto Peitgen, Dr. Carl J. G. Evertsz and Dr. Hartmut J¸rgens as a non-profit making institute of the University of Bremen. Until the end of 2008, the shareholders of MeVis GmbH, which later changed its name to MeVis Research GmbH, were the Land of Bremen and, from June 2007 to June 2008, also MeVis Medical Solutions AG. The development of MeVis Research and its research activity have been supported by the shareholders through public financing and by an advisory committee of international scientists.
| Euro m | 2009 | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2013e | 2014e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.9 | 15.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 |
| Change in inventory/Own work | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Total output | 16.2 | 16.8 | 17.5 | 17.9 | 18.3 | 19.0 |
| % against prev. year | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | |
| Cost of materials | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Personnel expenses | -9.8 | -10.4 | -11.2 | -11.5 | -11.7 | -12.4 |
| Other operating income | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Other operating expenses | -3.3 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.0 |
| Extraordinary income/expenses | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| For information: EBITDA adjusted | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| Depreciation | -2.8 | -4.4 | -4.9 | -4.7 | -4.6 | -4.4 |
| thereof on goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 1.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| For information: EBIT adjusted | 1.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| % against prev. year | -98% | -632% | 727% | 93% | ||
| Interest paid / received | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Profit before tax | 1.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| For information: EBT adjusted | 1.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| % against prev. year | -116% | 104% | ||||
| Income taxes from continuing operations | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| Tax rate | 66% | -198% | 23% | 9% | 27% | 26% |
| Net profit from continuing operations | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Net profit from discontinued operations | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net profit | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Profit or loss attributable to minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Profit or loss attributable to shareholders | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| thereof from continuing operations | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| thereof from discontinued operations | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weighted average number of shares, diluted (m) | 1.700 | 1.700 | 1.700 | 1.700 | 1.700 | 1.700 |
| IFRS earnings per share, diluted | 0.23 | -0.33 | -0.26 | -0.02 | 0.53 | 1.09 |
| Adjusted earnings per share, diluted (contin.) | 0.23 | -0.33 | -0.26 | -0.02 | 0.53 | 1.09 |
Fiscal year end December
| 16.2 27.7% 10.1% 2.5% 46.9% 8.9% -2.9% 4.1 3.3% 35.9% 1.2% 5.5% |
16.8 26.4% 0.2% -3.3% 23.8% 8.4% -1.3% 0.1 |
17.5 27.2% -1.0% -2.5% 24.4% 5.6% -2.2% |
17.9 27.3% 0.8% -0.2% 20.4% 5.5% -1.0% 0.9 |
18.3 31.4% 6.4% 4.9% 21.1% 1.4% 0.3% 18.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.7% | -1.4% | -0.1% | 2.7% | |
| 0.1% | -0.6% | 0.5% | 4.3% | |
| 87.92 | 91.06 | 91.81 | 91.37 | 90.70 |
| 8.88 | 0.18 | -0.94 | 0.72 | 5.82 |
| 64.0% | 72.0% | 76.6% | 82.4% | 82.7% |
| 132.7% | 129.8% | 117.3% | 111.5% | 117.3% |
| 181.9% | 256.7% | 186.3% | 151.4% | 178.7% |
| 26.1% | 26.3% | 26.8% | 27.3% | 27.7% |
| 90.7% | 86.5% | 77.1% | 84.7% | |
| 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% |
| -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| -1.9 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -3.1 |
| 0.23 | -0.33 | -0.26 | -0.02 | 0.53 |
| 1.91 | 2.27 | 2.64 | 2.78 | 3.22 |
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 4.54 | 2.82 | 2.50 | 1.29 | 2.15 |
| -0.36 | -0.06 | 0.47 | -0.08 | -0.94 |
| 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 8.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| 24.3 | 760.8 | 179.6 | 20.5 | |
| 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.40 | |
Source: MeVis Medical Solutions, DZ BANK estimates
SALES BY REGION 2009
FREE CASH FLOW AND
| IFRS - Euro m | 2009 | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2013e | 2014e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | ||||||
| Non current assets | 29.9 | 30.5 | 30.8 | 29.7 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| Intangible assets | 27.1 | 26.9 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 24.9 | 24.7 |
| thereof goodwill | 16.6 | 17.4 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 |
| Tangible assets | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Financial assets | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Other long-term assets | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Current assets | 21.1 | 14.6 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 12.7 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Trade receivables | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 |
| Financial assets | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Other receivables and short-term assets | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Liquid assets | 7.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.4 |
| Assets available for sale | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total assets | 51.0 | 45.0 | 41.7 | 38.8 | 39.7 | 41.6 |
| LIABILITIES Shareholders' equity |
32.6 | 32.4 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.8 | 34.7 |
| Share capital | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Reserves | 33.4 | 32.9 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 33.3 | 35.2 |
| Other equity | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Treasury stock | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.8 |
| Non current liabilities | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Provisions for pensions | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other provisions | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial liabilities | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Other payables | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Current liabilities | 11.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Trade payables | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Other provisions | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Financial liabilities | 7.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Other liabilities | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Liabilities assoc. with assets held for sale | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Fiscal year end December
| Data from company to be valued | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate of perpetuity | 1.0% | ||
| Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) | 10.45% | ||
| (Capital cost are specifically calculated for each particular period) |
| Euro m | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBIT | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| Taxes on EBIT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| Cash Taxes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| + Depreciations (-Reversals) | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| - Investments (+Proceeds from sale) | -3.9 | -4.3 | -3.7 | -3.9 | -4.1 | -4.1 |
| Change in working capital | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Other changes | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Market value of non-operating assets | 0.0 | |
|---|---|---|
| Financial and liquid assets | 16.4 | |
| Enterprise value, beginning of period | 38.0 | |
| Liabilities | -14.5 | |
| Provisions (inc. provisions for pensions) | 0.0 | |
| Equity value incl. minority interest, bop | 23.5 | |
| Value of minority interest | 0.0 | |
| Correction of liabilities by convertible bonds | 0.0 | |
| EQV excl. minority interest, bop | 23.5 | |
| Accumulation till effective valuation date (with KE rate) |
3.6 | |
| EQV excl. minority interest at valuation date | 27.1 | |
| Equity value per share, diluted (EUR) | 16.0 | |
| Fiscal year end December |
| Market data | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-free interest rate | 2.70% | |||||
| Market premium | 5.00% | |||||
| Data from comparable company | ||||||
| Levered beta factor | 1.9000 | |||||
| Data from company to be valued | ||||||
| Growth rate of perpetuity | 1.0% | |||||
| Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) | 10.45% | |||||
| (Capital cost are specifically calculated for each particular period) |
||||||
| Euro m | 2010e | 2011e | 2012e | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e |
| Adjusted EBIT | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| Taxes on EBIT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| Cash Taxes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| + Depreciations (-Reversals) | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| - Investments (+Proceeds from sale) | -3.9 | -4.3 | -3.7 | -3.9 | -4.1 | -4.1 |
| Change in working capital | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Other changes | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Present value of free cash flows | 21.6 | |||||
| Market value of non-operating assets | 0.0 | |||||
| Financial and liquid assets | 16.4 | |||||
| Enterprise value, beginning of period | 38.0 | |||||
| Liabilities | -14.5 | |||||
| Provisions (inc. provisions for pensions) | 0.0 | |||||
| Equity value incl. minority interest, bop | 23.5 | |||||
| Value of minority interest | 0.0 | |||||
| Correction of liabilities by convertible bonds | 0.0 | |||||
| EQV excl. minority interest, bop | 23.5 | |||||
| Accumulation till effective valuation date (with KE rate) |
3.6 | |||||
| EQV excl. minority interest at valuation date | 27.1 | |||||
| Equity value per share, diluted (EUR) | 16.0 | |||||
| Fiscal year end December |
Published by: DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank, Platz der Republik, 60265 Frankfurt am Main
Board of Directors: Wolfgang Kirsch (Chief Executive Officer), Lars Hille, Wolfgang Kˆhler, Hans-Theo Macke, Albrecht Merz, Thomas Ullrich, Frank Westhoff Responsible: Stefan Bielmeier, Head of Research and Volkswirtschaft Responsible: Dr. Lothar Weniger, Head of Equity Research © DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank, Frankfurt am Main 2010
Reprinting and reproduction requires the approval of DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank, Frankfurt am Main
DZ BANK maintains a list of companies for which company-specific financial analyses are published (master list). Comments on events relevant for the share price of all companies on the master list are published. Whether and why such publications are made is subject to the sole discretion of DZ BANK. In addition, extensive research analyses are prepared for stocks on the master list. The identity of companies for which such publications are made is subject to the sole discretion of DZ BANK. In order to comply with the regulations of the Securities Trading Act, it is possible that the publication of financial analyses is restricted at any time without any previous announcement for individual companies in the master list. The share prices are taken from Datastream, based on the Datastream codes given; they are closing prices in line with the Datastream system.
Bundesanstalt f¸r Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank, Platz der Republik, 60265 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Research analysts are not compensated for specific investment banking transactions. The author(s) of this report receive(s) compensation that is based on (among other factors) the overall profitability of DZ BANK, which includes earnings from the firmís investment banking and other businesses. DZ BANK generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or futures of any companies that the analysts cover.
| Buy 79.2%, | Hold | 3.0%, | Sell 17.8% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- | ------------ | ------ | ------- | -- | ------------ |
PERCENTAGE OF COMPANIES WITHIN EACH CATEGORY FOR WHICH DZ BANK, DZ FINANCIAL MARKETS LCC AND/OR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES HAVE PROVIDED INVESTMENT BANKING SERVICES WITHIN THE PREVIOUS 12 MONTHS
Buy 13.4%, Hold 40.0%, Sell 10.2%
Each DZ BANK research analyst who is involved in the preparation of this research report certifies that:
DZ BANK and/or its respective affiliate(s)
Further information and compulsory data regarding financial analyses can be found under www.dzbank.de.
1.a) This report has been prepared by DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank AG, Frankfurt am Main, Germany (ÑDZ BANKì) and has been approved by DZ BANK for distribution in Germany and other such locations as noted below. The authoring analysts are employed by DZ BANK.
b) Our recommendations do not constitute any investment advice and consequently, they may not be fully (or not at all) suitable to individual investors, depending on their investment objectives, targeted holding period or the individual financial situation. The recommendations and opinions contained in this report constitute the best judgment of DZ BANK at the date and time or preparation of this document and are subject to change without notice as a result of future events or results. This report is for distribution in all countries only in accordance with the applicable law and rules and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselves about and observe such law and rules. This report constitutes an independent appraisal of the relevant issuer or security by DZ BANK; all evaluations, opinions or explanations contained herein are those of the author of the report and do not necessarily correspond with those of the issuer or third parties.
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Any decision to effect an investment in securities should be founded on independent investment analysis and processes as well as other reports including, but not limited to, information memoranda, sales prospectuses or offering circulars rather than on the basis of this report. Whilst DZ BANK may provide hyperlinks to web sites of entities mentioned in this report, the inclusion of a link does not imply that DZ BANK endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. DZ BANK accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any such material, nor for any consequences of its use. e) This report is not to be construed as and does not constitute a public offer or an invitation to any person to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. The information in this report does not constitute investment advice. In preparing this report, DZ BANK has not and does not act in the capacity of investment adviser to, or asset manager for, any person.
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g) Research analysts are not compensated for specific investment banking transactions. The author(s) of this report receive(s) compensation that is based on (among other factors) the overall profitability of DZ BANK, which includes earnings from the firmís investment banking and other businesses. DZ BANK generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or futures of any companies that the analysts cover.
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(Except as otherwise noted, expected performance within the 12 month period from the date of the rating):
| Buy: | greater than 5% increase in share price |
|---|---|
| Hold: | price changes between +5% and -5% |
Sell: more than 5% decrease in share price
7.a) Note: - Any fair values / price targets shown for companies discussed in this report may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors, including, without limitation, market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the state of the economy, the failure to achieve earnings and/or revenue projections, the unavailability of complete and accurate information and/or a subsequent occurrence that affects the underlying assumptions made by DZ BANK or by other sources relied upon in the report.
b) DZ BANK may also have published other research about the company during the period covered that did not contain a fair value / price target but that discussed valuation matters. The fair values / price targets shown should be considered in the context of all prior published research as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets.
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| Healthcare | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 72 42 | [email protected] |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 4 20 13 | [email protected] |
| Biotechnology/Pharmaceuticals | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 22 48 | [email protected] |
| Pharmaceuticals/Pharmaceuticals Trading | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 16 04 | [email protected] |
| Kai Bˆckel | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 12 28 | [email protected] |
| Heiko Klebing | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 49 95 | [email protected] |
| Petra Bukan | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 4992 | [email protected] |
| Thomas Reichelt | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 6709 | [email protected] |
| Jonathan Cox Lars Wohlers |
+44 - 20 - 7776 ñ 6075 +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 68 34 |
[email protected] [email protected] |
| Sacha Kaiser | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 4 28 28 | [email protected] |
| Michael Menrad | +49 ñ (0)69 ñ 74 47 ñ 9 91 95 | [email protected] |
| Bloomberg | DZAG |
|---|---|
| Reuters | "DZ Bank" & RCH |
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