Investor Presentation • May 10, 2016
Investor Presentation
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Hannover, 10 May 2016
| Group | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |
Gross written premium: Net premium earned: |
EUR 4,264 m. (-3.1%) EUR 3,542 m. (+3.2%) |
GWP f/x adjusted (-2.1%); within range of full-year guidance for 2016 |
||||
| |
EBIT: Group net income: |
EUR 407 m. EUR 271 m. |
Favourable EBIT driven by improved underwriting result in both business groups; investment income in line with target |
||||
| |
RoE: Book value per share: Shareholders' equity: |
13.2% EUR 69.42 EUR 8,372 m. |
Attractive RoE despite further capital growth Shareholders' equity up by 3.8%, mainly driven by strong earnings |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Investments | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBIT: | EUR 300 m. | EBIT: | EUR 106 m. | NII: RoI from AuM: |
EUR 366 m. 2.9% |
| EBIT growth 17.4% driven by favourable underwriting result (C/R of 94.7%) Net major losses of EUR 55 m. (2.8% of NPE) well below budget Premium development in line with selective underwriting approach |
Strong profitability driven by favourable underwriting result previous year with expectation |
EBIT decreased due to positive one off effect and currency gains in F/x-adjusted growth of 0.3% in line |
RoI in line with full-year target of 2.9% Ordinary investment income lower due to positive one-off effect in L&H in previous year AuM strengthening of EUR |
decreased by -0.7%, driven by |
| Group figures in m. EUR | Q1/2015 | Q1/2016 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 4,400 | 4,264 | -3.1% |
| Net premium earned | 3,432 | 3,542 | +3.2% |
| Net underwriting result | (6) | 36 | - |
| - Incl. funds withheld | 93 | 120 | +28.9% |
| Net investment income | 416 | 366 | -11.9% |
| - From assets under own mgmt. | 317 | 283 | -10.7% |
| - From funds withheld | 99 | 84 | -15.6% |
| Other income and expenses | 20 | 4 | -77.5% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 429 | 407 | -5.2% |
| Interest on hybrid capital | (25) | (18) | -28.6% |
| Net income before taxes | 404 | 389 | -3.8% |
| Taxes | (126) | (102) | -18.9% |
| Net income | 278 | 287 | +3.1% |
| - Non-controlling interests | (1) | 16 | - |
| Group net income | 280 | 271 | -3.1% |
| Retention | 88.6% | 89.0% | |
| EBIT margin (EBIT/Net premium earned) | 12.5% | 11.5% | |
| Tax ratio | 31.1% | 26.2% | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 2.32 | 2.25 |
| YTD | ||
|---|---|---|
AuM slightly down due to appreciation of EUR against USD and GBP
1) Excluding approx. EUR 500 m. from financial solutions treaties with an expected cash outflow in 2016 2) Including approx. EUR 300 m. cash outflow from financial solutions treaties with cash inflow in 2015
| Property & Casualty R/I in m. EUR | Q1/2015 | Q1/2016 | Δ | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 2,617 | 2,502 | -4.4% | GWP f/x adjusted: -3.7%; growth mainly from US, reduced volume from China motor business |
| Net premium earned | 1,882 | 1,961 | +4.2% | NPE f/x adjusted: +5.2% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
80 | 104 | +29.7% | Major losses of EUR 55 m. (2.8% of NPE) well below budget of EUR 189 m. for Q1/2016 |
| Combined ratio incl. interest on funds withheld |
95.7% | 94.7% | -1.0%p | Conservative reserving policy unchanged, reserve run-off unremarkable |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
191 | 203 | +6.2% | Ordinary investment income in line with expectation |
| Other income and expenses | (16) | (8) | -52.6% | Other income mainly improved due to positive currency effects |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 255 | 300 | +17.4% | EBIT margin of 15.3% (Q1/2015: 13.6%) well above target |
| Tax ratio | 32.3% | 26.9% | -5.4%p | |
| Group net income | 171 | 204 | +19.2% | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.42 | 1.69 |
| Target | North America* | 93.5% | +13.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| markets | Continental Europe* | 88.9% | +12.7% | |
| Marine | 54.8% | -12.4% | ||
| Specialty | Aviation | 154.4% | -34.3% | |
| lines | Credit, surety and political risks | 103.7 % | -5.4% | |
| worldwide | UK, Ireland, London market and direct |
97.7% | -16.9% | |
| Facultative R/I | 106.1% | -25.2% | ||
| Worldwide Treaty* R/I | 91.9% | -0.4% | ||
| Global R/I |
Cat XL | 15.2% | -10.2% | |
| Structured R/I and ILS | 100.1% | -12.2% | ||
| Total | 94.7% | -4.4% | ||
| 0% 20% 40% |
60% 80% 100% |
120% 140% 160% |
MtCR = Maximum tolerable Combined Ratio Combined Ratio
* All lines of Property & Casualty reinsurance except those stated separately
2) 2006 adjusted to new segmentation
| Catastrophe losses* in m. EUR | Date | Gross | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake, Taiwan | 6 Feb | 16.2 | 15.6 |
| 1 Natural catastrophe | 16.2 | 15.6 | |
| 3 Property claims | 41.0 | 39.9 | |
| 4 Major losses | 57.2 | 55.5 |
* Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross
| Life & Health R/I in m. EUR | Q1/2015 | Q1/2016 | Δ | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 1,783 | 1,761 | -1.2% | GWP f/x-adjusted growth +0.3%, mainly from UK Longevity BATs, reduced volume from Australia |
| Net premium earned | 1,550 | 1,581 | +2.0% | NPE f/x-adjusted growth +3.6% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
12 | 15 | +20.1% | Favourable underwriting result reflects underlying profitability |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
124 | 78 | -37.1% | Ordinary investment income in line with expectation (Q1/2015 affected by positive one-off of EUR 39 m.) |
| Other income and expenses | 37 | 13 | -65.8% | Decreased other income and expenses due to significantly reduced positive currency effects |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 173 | 106 | -39.1% | EBIT margins |
| EBIT margin | 11.2% | 6.7% | -4.5%p | • Financial solutions business: 17.9% (target 2.0%) • Longevity business: 3.2% (target 2.0%) |
| Tax ratio | 28.0% | 25.4% | -2.6%p | • Mortality and Morbidity business: 5.3% (target 6.0%) |
| Group net income | 128 | 78 | -38.9% | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.06 | 0.65 |
| in m. EUR | Q1/2015 | Q1/2016 | RoI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income* | 315 | 269 | 2.7% |
| Realised gains/losses | 45 | 44 | 0.4% |
| Impairments/appreciations & depreciations |
(8) | (14) | -0.1% |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments (through P&L) |
(11) | 10 | 0.1% |
| Investment expenses | (24) | (27) | -0.3% |
| NII from assets under own mgmt. | 317 | 283 | 2.9% |
| NII from funds withheld | 99 | 84 | |
| Total net investment income | 416 | 366 |
| Unrealised gains/losses of investments |
31 Dec 15 | 31 Mar 16 |
|---|---|---|
| On Balance-sheet | 1,146 | 1,497 |
| thereof Fixed income AFS | 636 | 1,066 |
| Off Balance-sheet | 497 | 538 |
| thereof Fixed income HTM, L&R | 411 | 451 |
| Total | 1,643 | 2,035 |
* Incl. results from associated companies
| Total: EUR 269 m. | Asset allocation | Market values: EUR 39.6 bn. |
|---|---|---|
| Investment category | 31 Mar 16 | |
| Fixed-income securities | 86% | |
| Governments 15% |
- Governments | 26% |
| - Semi-governments | 17% | |
| Semi | - Corporates | 33% |
| governments | Investment grade | 29% |
| 16% | Non-investment grade | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered Bonds, ABS | 10% | |
| Equities | 4% | |
| - Listed Equity | 2% | |
| - Private Equity | 2% | |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 4% | |
| Others | 1% | |
| Corporates | Short-term investments & cash | 5% |
Economic view based on market values as at 31 March 2016 * Before real estate-specific costs
| Business group | Key figures | Strategic targets for 2016 |
Q1/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Return on investment1) | ≥2.9% | 2.9 % |
| Return on equity2) | ≥10.0% | 13.2% | |
| Earnings per share growth (y-o-y) | ≥6.5% | -3.1% | |
| Value creation per share3) | ≥7.5% | n.a. | |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Gross premium growth | 3% - 5%4) | -3.7% |
| Combined ratio | ≤96%5) | 94.7% | |
| EBIT margin6) | ≥10% | 15.3% | |
| xRoCA7) | ≥2% | n.a. | |
| Life & Health R/I | Gross premium growth | 5% - 7%8) | 0.3% |
| Value of New Business (VNB)9) | ≥EUR 220 m. | n.a. | |
| EBIT margin6) Financial solutions/Longevity | ≥2% | 9.2% | |
| EBIT margin6) Mortality/Morbidity | ≥6% | 5.3% | |
| xRoCA7) | ≥3% | n.a. |
9) Based on a cost of capital of 6% (until 2014: 4.5%)
1) Excl. effects from ModCo derivatives 2) After tax; target : 900 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds
3) Growth in book value per share + paid dividend 4) On average throughout the R/I cycle; at unchanged f/x rates
5) Incl. expected net major losses of EUR 825 m. 6) EBIT/net premium earned
7) Excess return on allocated economic capital 8) Organic growth only; annual average growth (5 years), at unchanged f/x rates
| in m. EUR | Internal | Metrics | Solvency II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Available Economic Capital / Own Funds |
12,609 | 11,983 | |
| Confidence Level | 99.97% | 99.5% | 99.5% |
| Required Capital / Solvency Capital Requirements |
9,773 | 5,166 | 5,433 |
| Excess Capital |
2,836 | 7,443 | 6,549 |
| Capital Adequacy Ratio |
129% | 244% | 221% |
| Minimum Target Ratio (Limit) | 100% | 200% | 180% |
| Minimum Target Ratio (Threshold) | 110% | n/a | 200% |
As at 31 December 2015
| in m. EUR |
Available Capital |
Required Capital |
CAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Model at VaR1) 99.97% | 12,609 | 9,773 | 129% |
| -4,607 | |||
| Internal Model at VaR 99.5% |
12,609 | 5,166 | 244% |
| Interests2) Haircut for Minority |
-626 | ||
| 11,983 | 5,166 | 232% | |
| Add-On, Standard Formula OpRisk |
+267 | ||
| Regulatory View at VaR 99.5% |
11,983 | 5,433 | 221% |
Economic view: internal target confidence level at 99.97%, full internal model, full transferability of capital
Regulatory view: partial internal model with standard formula for operational risk, confidence level at 99.5%, transferability restrictions on minority interests
As at 31 December 2015
1) Value-at-Risk
2) Non-available minority interests mostly consist of non-controlling interests in E+S Rückversicherung AG
As at 31 December 2015 * Operational risk according to standard formula
Own funds largely constituted by Tier 1 capital supplemented with hybrid capital
As at 31 December 2015
1) Adjustments for technical provisions incl. risk margin
2) Foreseeable dividends and distributions refer to Hannover Rück SE dividend as well as dividends to minorities within Hannover Re Group
* Based on old CoC factor of 4.5% (new CoC factor of 6.0% is compliant with Solvency II)
in m. EUR
Hannover Re Group
1) At unchanged f/x rates
| Lines of business | Volume1) | Profitability2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target markets |
North America3) | | + |
| Continental Europe3) | | +/- | |
| Marine | | + | |
| Aviation | | - | |
| Specialty lines worldwide |
Credit, surety and political risks | | + |
| UK, Ireland, London market and direct | | +/- | |
| Facultative R/I | | + | |
| Worldwide treaty3) R/I | | + | |
| Global R/I |
Cat XL | | - |
| Structured R/I and ILS | | +/- |
1) In EUR
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
3) All lines of business except those stated separately
| Reporting categories | Volume1) | Profitability2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial solutions |
Financial solutions | | ++ |
| Longevity | | +/- | |
| Risk solutions |
Mortality | | + |
| Morbidity | | +/- |
1) In EUR 2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
| W٥ |
|---|
| ex |
We expect further increased profits from our Life & Health business excluding 2015 termination fees
We expect to achieve a largely stable absolute NII on the back of an increased investment volume (from a further positive cash flow) despite low interest rate environment
We are maintaining our competitive advantage of low admin expenses
Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses in 2016 not exceeding the major loss budget of EUR 825 m.
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q1/2015 | Q1/2016 | Δ | Q1/2015 | Q1/2016 | Δ | Q1/2015 | Q1/2016 | Δ |
| Gross written premium | 2,617 | 2,502 | -4.4% | 1,783 | 1,761 | -1.2% | 4,400 | 4,264 | -3.1% |
| Net premium earned | 1,882 | 1,961 | +4.2% | 1,550 | 1,581 | +2.0% | 3,432 | 3,542 | +3.2% |
| Net underwriting result | 77 | 100 | +31.0% | (83) | (65) | -21.9% | (6) | 36 | - |
| Net underwritung result incl. funds withheld | 80 | 104 | +29.7% | 12 | 15 | +20.1% | 93 | 120 | +28.9% |
| Net investment income | 195 | 207 | +6.2% | 219 | 158 | -28.2% | 416 | 366 | -11.9% |
| From assets under own management | 191 | 203 | +6.2% | 124 | 78 | -37.1% | 317 | 283 | -10.7% |
| From funds withheld | 4 | 4 | +4.8% | 95 | 79 | -16.4% | 99 | 84 | -15.6% |
| Other income and expenses | (16) | (8) | -52.6% | 37 | 13 | -65.8% | 20 | 4 | -77.5% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 255 | 300 | +17.4% | 173 | 106 | -39.1% | 429 | 407 | -5.2% |
| Interest on hybrid capital | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | - | (25) | (18) | -28.6% |
| Net income before taxes | 255 | 300 | +17.4% | 173 | 106 | -39.1% | 404 | 389 | +3.8% |
| Taxes | (82) | (81) | -2.3% | (49) | (27) | -44.8% | (126) | (102) | +18.9% |
| Net income | 173 | 219 | +26.9% | 125 | 79 | -36.9% | 278 | 287 | +3.1% |
| Non-controlling interest | 1 | 15 | - | (3) | 1 | -132.4% | (1) | 16 | - |
| Group net income | 171 | 204 | +19.2% | 128 | 78 | -38.9% | 280 | 271 | -3.1% |
| Retention | 88.9% | 87.9% | 88.1% | 90.5% | 88.6% | 89.0% | |||
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 95.7% | 94.7% | 99.2% | 99.1% | 97.3% | 96.6% | |||
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 13.6% | 15.3% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 11.5% | |||
| Tax ratio | 32.3% | 26.9% | 28.0% | 25.4% | 31.1% | 26.2% | |||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.42 | 1.69 | 1.06 | 0.65 | 2.32 | 2.25 |
| Investment category | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 31 Mar 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 92% | 90% | 90% | 87% | 86% | |
| - Governments | 19% | 19% | 21% | 26% | 26% | |
| - Semi-governments | 23% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 17% | |
| - Corporates | 33% | 36% | 36% | 34% | 33% | |
| Investment grade | 30% | 33% | 33% | 30% | 29% | |
| Non-investment grade | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered Bonds, ABS | 17% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 2) 10% |
|
| Equities | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | |
| - Listed Equity | <1% | <1% | <1 % | 1% | 2% | |
| - Private Equity | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | |
| Short-term investments & cash | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 32.5 | 32.2 | 36.8 | 39.8 | 39.6 |
1) Economic view based on market values without outstanding commitments for Private Equity and Alternative Real Estate as well as fixed-income investments of EUR 807.3 m. (EUR 837.1 m.) as at 31 March 2016
2) Of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 80.0%
| Portfolio Scenario |
Change in market value in m. EUR |
Change in shareholders' equity before tax in m. EUR |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (listed and private equity) | -10% | -153 | -153 | |
| -20% | -306 | -306 | ||
| +50 bps | -759 | -664 | ||
| Yield curves | +100 bps | -1,484 | -1,300 | |
| Credit spreads | +50% | -929 | -880 |
| Governments | Semi governments |
Corporates | Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS |
Short-term investments, cash |
Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 73.5% | 65.2% | 1.3% | 69.4% | - | 44.2% | ||||||
| A A |
13.2% | 30.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% | - | 16.7% | ||||||
| A | 7.8% | 2.6% | 38.4% | 7.3% | - | 18.2% | ||||||
| BBB | 4.6% | 1.3% | 38.5% | 6.2% | - | 16.9% | ||||||
| <bbb< td=""> | 0.9% | 0.9% | 8.1% | 3.8% | - | 4.0% | </bbb<>0.9% | 0.9% | 8.1% | 3.8% | - | 4.0% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | - | 100.0% | ||||||
| Germany | 8.9% | 44.6% | 4.5% | 28.6% | 31.2% | 17.3% | ||||||
| UK | 7.4% | 3.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 7.0% | ||||||
| France | 1.7% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | ||||||
| GIIPS | 1.4% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 2.8% | ||||||
| Rest of Europe | 5.6% | 19.6% | 16.7% | 25.7% | 2.9% | 14.2% | ||||||
| USA | 58.8% | 6.2% | 36.5% | 4.7% | 13.9% | 32.9% | ||||||
| Australia | 3.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | ||||||
| Asia | 8.7% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 29.4% | 6.4% | ||||||
| Rest of World | 4.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | ||||||
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
| Total b/s values in m. EUR | 10,387 | 6,510 | 12,480 | 3,741 | 1,852 | 34,970 |
IFRS figures as at 31 March 2016
| 2015 | 4.4 |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 4.6 |
| 2013 | 4.4 |
| 2012 | 4.5 |
| 2011 | 4.2 |
Modified duration as at 31 March 2016: 4.4
This presentation does not address the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person or legal entity. Investors should seek independent professional advice and perform their own analysis regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of our securities.
While Hannover Re has endeavoured to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-to-date, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information.
Some of the statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on currently available information. Such statements naturally are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors such as the development of general economic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements.
This presentation serves information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer or solicitation to acquire, subscribe to or dispose of, any of the securities of Hannover Re.
© Hannover Rück SE. All rights reserved. Hannover Re is the registered service mark of Hannover Rück SE.
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