Earnings Release • Aug 4, 2016
Earnings Release
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Hannover, 4 August 2016
| Group | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium: Net premium earned: |
EUR 8,284 m. (-3.5%) EUR 7,167 m. (+2.1%) |
GWP slightly down in line with expectations (f/x adjusted -1.5%); NPE f/x-adj. growth of 4.3% |
||||
| EBIT: Group net income: |
EUR 745 m. EUR 486 m. |
EBIT and net income benefitting from good investment income and solid results from L&H as well as acceptable P&C underwriting results |
||||
| RoE: |
11.8% | RoE |
remains above our minimum target | |||
| Book value per share: |
EUR 69.83 | | Shareholders' equity up by 4.4%, despite | |||
| Shareholders' equity: |
EUR 8,421 m. | dividend payment in Q2/2016 driven by net income and strong increase in valuation reserves |
||||
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Investments | ||||
| EBIT: | EUR 561 m. | EBIT: | EUR 179 m. | NII: RoI from AuM: |
EUR 745 m. 2.9% |
|
| Underlying underwriting affected by high level of claims in Q2/2016 Net major losses of EUR 353 m. (9.2% of NPE) at expected level Premium development in line with |
from UK Longevity EBIT in line with full-year expectation Positive underlying earnings |
F/x-adjusted growth of 4.2% mainly | RoI in line with full-year target (2.9%) Ordinary investment income lower due to positive one-off effect in L&H in previous year |
development but recurring adverse claim experience from older U/Y of
US mortality business
AuM increased by 1.0%
Premium development in line with selective underwriting approach
| Group figures in m. EUR | Q2/2015 | Q2/2016 | 1H/2015 | 1H/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 4,186 | 4,020 | 8,587 | 8,284 |
| Net premium earned | 3,588 | 3,625 | 7,019 | 7,167 |
| Net underwriting result | (34) | (39) | (40) | (3) |
| - Incl. funds withheld | 65 | 53 | 158 | 173 |
| Net investment income | 383 | 379 | 799 | 745 |
| - From assets under own mgmt. | 285 | 286 | 601 | 569 |
| - From funds withheld | 98 | 92 | 197 | 176 |
| Other income and expenses | 11 | (1) | 31 | 3 |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 360 | 339 | 789 | 745 |
| Interest on hybrid capital | (23) | (18) | (48) | (36) |
| Net income before taxes | 337 | 320 | 741 | 709 |
| Taxes | (58) | (93) | (184) | (195) |
| Net income | 278 | 228 | 557 | 514 |
| - Non-controlling interests | 26 | 13 | 25 | 28 |
| Group net income | 252 | 215 | 532 | 486 |
| Retention | 88.0% | 90.6% | 88.3% | 89.8% |
| EBIT margin (EBIT/Net premium earned) | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% |
| Tax ratio | 17.4% | 29.0% | 24.9% | 27.5% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 2.09 | 1.78 | 4.41 | 4.03 |
1) Affected by a financial solutions treaty with approx. EUR 500 m. cash inflow in Q4/2015 and approx. EUR 300 m. cash outflow in Q1/2016 (reported figure for 1H/2016: EUR 747 m.)
| Property & Casualty R/I in m. EUR | Q2/2015 | Q2/2016 | 1H/2015 | 1H/2016 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 2,355 | 2,125 | 4,972 | 4,627 | GWP f/x adjusted -5.6%; growth mainly from US and structured R/I, reduced volume from |
| Net premium earned | 2,012 | 1,877 | 3,894 | 3,838 | China motor business and specialty lines NPE f/x adjusted stable |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
101 | 74 | 181 | 178 | Major losses of EUR 353 m. in line with budget High frequency of basic losses and negative |
| Combined ratio incl. interest on funds withheld |
95.0% | 96.1% | 95.4% | 95.4% | run-off of single claims in Q2 offset by positive run-off, overall confidence level slightly down |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
224 | 201 | 415 | 405 | Favourable ordinary investment income |
| Other income and expenses | 4 | (14) | (12) | (22) | Other income and expenses around expected level |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 329 | 261 | 584 | 561 | EBIT margin of 14.6% (1H/2015: 15.0%) well above target |
| Tax ratio | 18.0% | 29.9% | 24.3% | 28.3% | |
| Group net income | 247 | 172 | 418 | 376 | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 2.05 | 1.43 | 3.47 | 3.12 |
1) Up to 2011 claims over EUR 5 m. gross, from 2012 onwards claims over EUR 10 m. gross 2) 2006 adjusted to new segmentation
| Catastrophe losses* in m. EUR | Date | Gross | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake, Taiwan | 6 Feb | 20.0 | 18.8 |
| Earthquake, Japan | 14 Apr | 24.4 | 23.1 |
| Earthquake, Ecuador | 16 - 17 Apr | 58.7 | 56.9 |
| Wildfire, Canada | 30 Apr - 8 May | 204.9 | 131.6 |
| Storm "Elvira", Germany, France | 27 - 30 May | 18.3 | 11.8 |
| 5 Natural catastrophes | 326.3 | 242.1 | |
| 2 Marine claims | 71.7 | 34.3 | |
| 3 Property claims | 81.0 | 62.3 | |
| 1 Credit claim | 14.0 | 14.0 | |
| 11 Major losses | 493.0 | 352.7 |
* Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross
| Target | North America * |
89.8% | +5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| markets | * Continental Europe |
94.3% | -3.8% |
| Marine | 12.1% | -9.7% | |
| Specialty | Aviation | 94.5% | -29.8% |
| lines | Credit, surety and political risks | 103.3% | -3.9% |
| worldwide | UK, Ireland, London market and direct |
89.6% | -7.7% |
| Facultative R/I | 93.0% | -15.8% | |
| * Worldwide Treaty R/I |
111.7% | -3.2% | |
| Global R/I |
Cat XL | 91.9% | -1.3% |
| Structured R/I and ILS | 96.6% | -18.2% | |
| Total | 95.4% | -6.9% | |
| 0% | 20% 40% 60% 80% |
100% 120% 140% 160% |
MtCR = Maximum tolerable Combined Ratio Combined Ratio
* All lines of Property & Casualty reinsurance except those stated separately
| Life and health R/I in m. EUR | Q2/2015 | Q2/2016 | 1H/2015 | 1H/2016 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 1,831 | 1,895 | 3,615 | 3,656 | GWP f/x-adjusted growth +4.2%, mainly from UK Longevity, reduced volume from Australia |
| Net premium earned | 1,575 | 1,747 | 3,125 | 3,328 | NPE f/x-adjusted growth +9.7% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(36) | (20) | (24) | (5) | Techn. result from US mortality below expec tation, but mitigated by favourable Fin. Sol. |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
55 | 80 | 179 | 158 | Ordinary investment income in line with expectation (Q1/2015 affected by positive |
| Other income and expenses | 8 | 13 | 44 | 26 | one-off of EUR 39 m.) Reduced, but still positive currency effects |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 27 | 74 | 200 | 179 | EBIT margins: |
| EBIT margin | 1.7% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | • Financial solutions: 16.3%, (target 2.0%) • Longevity: 2.1% (target 2.0%) |
| Tax ratio | 17.6% | 26.4% | 26.6% | 25.8% | • Mortality and Morbidity: 4.3% (target 6.0%) |
| Group net income | 18 | 53 | 146 | 131 | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.15 | 0.44 | 1.21 | 1.08 |
| in m. EUR | Q2/2015 | Q2/2016 | 1H/2015 | 1H/2016 | RoI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income* | 289 | 301 | 603 | 570 | 2.9% |
| Realised gains/losses | 22 | 36 | 67 | 80 | 0.4% |
| Impairments/appreciations & depreciations |
(7) | (34) | (15) | (48) | -0.2% |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments (through P&L) |
9 | 10 | (2) | 21 | 0.1% |
| Investment expenses | (28) | (26) | (52) | (52) | -0.3% |
| NII from assets under own mgmt. | 285 | 286 | 601 | 569 | 2.9% |
| NII from funds withheld | 98 | 92 | 197 | 176 | |
| Total net investment income | 383 | 379 | 799 | 745 | |
| Unrealised gains/losses of investments | 31 Dec 15 | 30 Jun 16 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 30 Jun 16 | |
|---|---|---|
| On Balance-sheet | 1,146 | 1,948 |
| thereof Fixed income AFS | 636 | 1,462 |
| Off Balance-sheet | 497 | 553 |
| thereof Fixed income HTM, L&R | 411 | 457 |
| Total | 1,643 | 2,502 |
YTD
* Incl. results from associated companies
| Investment category | 30 Jun 16 |
|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 87 % |
| - Governments | 27 % |
| - Semi-governments | 18 % |
| - Corporates | 32 % |
| Investment grade | 29 % |
| Non-investment grade | 4 % |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered Bonds, ABS | 2) 10 % |
| Equities | 4 % |
| - Listed Equity | 2 % |
| - Private Equity | 2 % |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 4 % |
| Others | 1 % |
| Short-term investments & cash | 5 % |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 40.3 |
Economic view based on market values as at 30 June 2016
1) Before real estate-specific costs
2) of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 78.1%
| Business group | Key figures | Strategic targets for 2016 |
1H/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Return on investment1) | ≥2.9% | 2.9% |
| Return on equity2) | ≥10.0% | 11.8% | |
| Earnings per share growth (y-o-y) | ≥6.5% | -8.6% | |
| Value creation per share3) | ≥7.5% | n.a. | |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Gross premium growth | 3% - 5%4) | -5.6% |
| Combined ratio | ≤96%5) | 95.4% | |
| EBIT margin6) | ≥10% | 14.6% | |
| xRoCA7) | ≥2% | n.a. | |
| Life & Health R/I | Gross premium growth | 5% - 7%8) | 4.2% |
| 9) Value of New Business (VNB) |
≥ EUR 220 m. | n.a. | |
| EBIT margin6) Financial solutions/Longevity | ≥2% | 7.3% | |
| EBIT margin6) Mortality/Morbidity | ≥6% | 4.3% | |
| xRoCA7) | ≥3% | n.a. | |
| 1) Excl. effects from ModCo derivatives 3) Growth in book value per share + paid dividend |
2) After tax; target: 900 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds 4) On average throughout the R/I cycle; at unchanged f/x rates |
5) Incl. expected net major losses of EUR 825 m. 6) EBIT/net premium earned
9) Based on a cost of capital of 6% (until 2014: 4.5%)
7) Excess return on allocated economic capital 8) Organic growth only; annual average growth (5 years), at unchanged f/x rates
U/Y figures at unchanged f/x rates (31 December 2015)
Hannover Re Group
1) At unchanged f/x rates
2) Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses in 2016 not exceeding the large loss budget of EUR 825 m.
3) Excluding effects from ModCo derivatives
4) Related to group net income according to IFRS
| Lines of business | Volume1) | Profitability2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target | North America3) | | + |
| markets | Continental Europe3) | | +/- |
| Marine | | + | |
| Specialty | Aviation | | - |
| lines | Credit, surety and political risks | + | |
| worldwide | UK, Ireland, London market and direct | | +/- |
| Facultative R/I | | + | |
| Worldwide treaty3) R/I | | +/- | |
| Global R/I |
Cat XL | | - |
| Structured R/I and ILS | | +/- |
1) In EUR
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
3) All lines of business except those stated separately
| Reporting categories | Volume1) | Profitability2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial solutions |
Financial solutions | ++ | |
| Longevity | | +/- | |
| Risk solutions |
Mortality | | +/- |
| Morbidity | +/- |
1) In EUR 2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
| We expect further increased profits from our Life & Health business |
|---|
| excluding 2015 termination fees |
We expect to achieve a largely stable absolute NII on the back of an increased investment volume (from a further positive cash flow) despite low interest rate environment
We are maintaining our competitive advantage of low admin expenses
Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses in 2016 not exceeding the major loss budget of EUR 825 m.
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | 1H/2015 | 1H/2016 | Δ | 1H/2015 | 1H/2016 | Δ | 1H/2015 | 1H/2016 | Δ |
| Gross written premium | 4,972 | 4,627 | -6.9% | 3,615 | 3,656 | +1.2% | 8,587 | 8,284 | -3.5% |
| Net premium earned | 3,894 | 3,838 | -1.4% | 3,125 | 3,328 | +6.5% | 7,019 | 7,167 | +2.1% |
| Net underwriting result | 171 | 166 | -4.1% | (211) | (169) | -19.9% | (40) | (3) | -93.2% |
| Net underwritung result incl. funds withheld | 181 | 178 | -1.7% | (24) | (5) | -79.2% | 158 | 173 | +9.8% |
| Net investment income | 425 | 416 | -2.1% | 367 | 322 | -12.1% | 799 | 745 | -6.8% |
| From assets under own management | 415 | 405 | -2.5% | 179 | 158 | -11.9% | 601 | 569 | -5.3% |
| From funds withheld | 10 | 12 | +13.9% | 187 | 164 | -12.4% | 197 | 176 | -11.1% |
| Other income and expenses | (12) | (22) | +73.6% | 44 | 26 | -41.5% | 31 | 3 | -89.8% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 584 | 561 | -3.9% | 200 | 179 | -10.5% | 789 | 745 | -5.6% |
| Interest on hybrid capital | (0) | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | +0.0% | (48) | (36) | -25.9% |
| Net income before taxes | 584 | 561 | -3.9% | 200 | 179 | -10.5% | 741 | 709 | -4.3% |
| Taxes | (142) | (159) | +12.1% | (53) | (46) | -13.1% | (184) | (195) | +5.8% |
| Net income | 442 | 402 | -9.0% | 147 | 133 | -9.5% | 557 | 514 | -7.6% |
| Non-controlling interest | 24 | 26 | +10.2% | 1 | 2 | +88.8% | 25 | 28 | +14.1% |
| Group net income | 418 | 376 | -10.1% | 146 | 131 | -10.3% | 532 | 486 | -8.6% |
| Retention | 89.6% | 88.2% | 86.5% | 91.8% | 88.3% | 89.8% | |||
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 95.4% | 95.4% | 100.8% | 100.1% | 97.8% | 97.6% | |||
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 15.0% | 14.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 11.2% | 10.4% | |||
| Tax ratio | 24.3% | 28.3% | 26.6% | 25.8% | 24.9% | 27.5% | |||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 3.47 | 3.12 | 1.21 | 1.08 | 4.41 | 4.03 |
| Property & Casualty R/I Life & Health R/I |
Total | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q2/2015 | Q2/2016 | Δ | Q2/2015 | Q2/2016 | Δ | Q2/2015 | Q2/2016 | Δ |
| Gross written premium | 2,355 | 2,125 | -9.8% | 1,831 | 1,895 | +3.5% | 4,186 | 4,020 | -4.0% |
| Net premium earned | 2,012 | 1,877 | -6.7% | 1,575 | 1,747 | +10.9% | 3,588 | 3,625 | +1.0% |
| Net underwriting result | 94 | 66 | -30.0% | (128) | (104) | -18.6% | (34) | (39) | - |
| Net underwritung result incl. funds withheld | 101 | 74 | -26.8% | (36) | (20) | -45.2% | 65 | 53 | -17.6% |
| Net investment income | 230 | 209 | -9.2% | 147 | 165 | +11.7% | 383 | 379 | -1.2% |
| From assets under own management | 224 | 201 | +6.2% | 55 | 80 | +45.1% | 285 | 286 | +0.6% |
| From funds withheld | 6 | 7 | +19.6% | 92 | 85 | -8.2% | 98 | 92 | -6.5% |
| Other income and expenses | 4 | (14) | -52.6% | 8 | 13 | +73.5% | 11 | (1) | -109.1% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 329 | 261 | +17.4% | 27 | 74 | +175.5% | 360 | 339 | -6.1% |
| Interest on hybrid capital | (0) | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | - | (23) | (18) | -23.0% |
| Net income before taxes | 329 | 261 | +17.4% | 27 | 74 | +175.5% | 337 | 320 | +3.8% |
| Taxes | (59) | (78) | -2.3% | (5) | (19) | - | (58) | (93) | +18.9% |
| Net income | 269 | 183 | -32.0% | 22 | 54 | +146.0% | 278 | 228 | -18.3% |
| Non-controlling interest | 22 | 11 | - | 4 | 1 | -63.4% | 26 | 13 | - |
| Group net income | 247 | 172 | -30.4% | 18 | 53 | +191.5% | 252 | 215 | -3.1% |
| Retention | 90.3% | 88.5% | 85.0% | 93.0% | 88.0% | 90.6% | |||
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 95.0% | 96.1% | 102.3% | 101.1% | 98.2% | 98.5% | |||
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 16.3% | 13.9% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | |||
| Tax ratio | 18.0% | 29.9% | 17.6% | 26.4% | 17.4% | 29.0% | |||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 2.05 | 1.43 | 0.15 | 0.44 | 2.09 | 1.78 |
| Investment category | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 30.06.2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 92% | 90% | 90% | 87% | 87% |
| - Governments | 19% | 19% | 21% | 26% | 27% |
| - Semi-governments | 23% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 18% |
| - Corporates | 33% | 36% | 36% | 34% | 32% |
| Investment grade | 30% | 33% | 33% | 30% | 29% 2) |
| Non-investment grade3 ) |
3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered Bonds, ABS | 17% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 10% |
| Equities | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| - Listed Equity | <1% | <1% | <1 % | 1% | 2% |
| - Private Equity | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Others3 ) |
1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Short-term investments & cash | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 32.5 | 32.2 | 36.8 | 39.8 | 40.3 |
1) Economic view based on market values without outstanding commitments for Private Equity and Alternative Real Estate as well as fixed-income investments of EUR 885.6 m. (EUR 837.1 m.) as at 30 Juni 2016
2) Of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 78.1%
3) Reallocation of High Yield Funds from "Others" to "Corporates – Non-investment grade"
| Portfolio | Scenario | Change in market value in m. EUR |
Change in OCI before tax in m. EUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -155 | -155 | |
| Equity (listed and private equity) | -20% | -310 | -310 |
| +50 bps | -790 | -698 | |
| Yield curves | +100 bps | -1,543 -1,363 +50% -807 -767 |
|
| Credit spreads |
As at 30 June 2016
| Governments | Semi governments |
Corporates | Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS |
Short-term investments, cash |
Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 75.4% | 65.1% | 1.3% | 67.4% | - | 45.3% | ||||||
| A A |
12.2% | 29.6% | 13.9% | 13.9% | - | 16.5% | ||||||
| A | 7.1% | 2.6% | 38.6% | 6.8% | - | 17.7% | ||||||
| BBB | 4.6% | 1.2% | 39.1% | 8.7% | - | 17.0% | ||||||
| <bbb< td=""> | 0.8% | 1.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | - | 3.5% | </bbb<>0.8% | 1.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | - | 3.5% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | - | 100.0% | ||||||
| Germany | 8.6% | 45.3% | 4.5% | 28.4% | 33.0% | 17.6% | ||||||
| UK | 6.7% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | ||||||
| France | 1.5% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 3.9% | ||||||
| GIIPS | 1.4% | 1.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | ||||||
| Rest of Europe | 5.3% | 18.9% | 16.4% | 24.4% | 3.5% | 13.7% | ||||||
| USA | 61.2% | 5.9% | 36.4% | 5.4% | 11.5% | 33.4% | ||||||
| Australia | 2.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | ||||||
| Asia | 7.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 29.7% | 6.3% | ||||||
| Rest of World | 4.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | ||||||
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
| Total b/s values in m. EUR | 10,766 | 6,877 | 12,360 | 3,765 | 1,818 | 35,586 |
IFRS figures as at 30 June 2016
Modified duration
| 2015 | 4.4 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4.6 | |
| 2013 | 4.4 | |
| 2012 | 4.5 | |
| 2011 | 4.2 | |
Modified duration as at 30 June 2016: 4.5
This presentation does not address the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person or legal entity. Investors should seek independent professional advice and perform their own analysis regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of our securities.
While Hannover Re has endeavoured to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-to-date, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information.
Some of the statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on currently available information. Such statements naturally are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors such as the development of general economic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements.
This presentation serves information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer or solicitation to acquire, subscribe to or dispose of, any of the securities of Hannover Re.
© Hannover Rück SE. All rights reserved.
Hannover Re is the registered service mark of Hannover Rück SE.
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