Investor Presentation • Nov 9, 2016
Investor Presentation
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9M-2016
While the company has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the facts stated in this presentation are accurate and that the opinions contained in it are fair and reasonable, this presentation is selective in nature and is intended to provide an introduction to, and an overview of the Company's business. Any opinions expressed in this presentation are subject to change without notice and neither the Company nor any other person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation. Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external sources, you should not interpret that the Company has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate.
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realised from the proposals described herein. Forward-looking statements may include, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation, and supply and demand. The Company has based these forward-looking statements on its views and assumptions with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and the Company does not undertake any duty to update the information and forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.
This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any shares in the Company and neither this presentation or anything in it shall form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
II.I. Portfolio and Operating Performance
III.I.I. Financial Performance
VI.I. Appendix
| | In-place rent, l-f-l | €5.31/sqm (+2.4% total portfolio, +3.3% for free-financed units) Slight growth acceleration in Q4 on the cards |
|---|---|---|
| | EPRA-Vacancy, l-f-l | 3.1% (stable YOY) |
| | Maintenance/Capex | €11.3/sqm (FY-2016 target of approx. €18/sqm) |
| Net cold rent |
€381.3m (+17.2% YOY from €325.3m) |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA |
€276.2m (+22.5% YOY from €225.4m) |
| Strong margin expansion excl. maintenance (c.+370 bps YOY) | |
| FFO I (excl. minorities) |
€210.6m (+32.9% YOY from €158.5m), €3.35 per share (+21.4% YOY from €2.76) |
| AFFO |
€163.8m (+31.0% YOY from €125.0m) |
| EPRA-NAV (excl. goodwill) |
€58.79 per share |
II.I. Portfolio and Operating Performance
| High-Growth Markets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.09.2016 (YOY) |
||||||
| # of units | 39,027 | +3.8% | ||||
| In-place rent (sqm), l-f-l | €5.87 | +2.3% | ||||
| EPRA-Vacancy, l-f-l | 1.6% | +10 bps |
| Stable Markets with Attractive Yields | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.09.2016 | (YOY) |
|||||
| # of units | 46,728 | +14.8% | ||||
| In-place rent (sqm), l-f-l | €5.00 | +2.3% | ||||
| EPRA-Vacancy, l-f-l | 3.1% | - 30 bps |
| Total Portfolio | Higher-Yielding Markets | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.09.2016 | (YOY) |
30.09.2016 | (YOY) |
||
| # of units | 127,941 | +16.7% | # of units | 40,291 | +35.0% |
| In-place rent (sqm), l-f-l | €5.31 | +2.4% | In-place rent (sqm), l-f-l | €4.93 | +2.3% |
| EPRA-Vacancy, l-f-l | 3.1% | - 8 bps |
EPRA-Vacancy, l-f-l | 5.4% | -10 bps |
Development of free financed units remains best proxy for underlying performance
Q3-2015 Q3-2016
5.31
Q3-2015 Q3-2016
5.18
Attractive portfolio + operational excellence = low vacancies
Strong letting momentum promises vacancy reduction in Q4 of c. 30-50bps
Especially strong momentum in the commuter belts of Dusseldorf/Cologne
Margin expansion on back of attractive scale effects + cost discipline
| € million |
9M-2016 | 9M-2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cold rent | 381.3 | 325.3 | +€56.0m (+17.2% YOY) |
|
| Profit from operating expenses | -0.9 | -0.6 | ||
| Maintenance | -44.9 | -36.5 | ||
| Staff costs | -30.2 | -27.4 | ||
| Allowances on rent receivables | -5.5 | -4.7 | ||
| Other | -5.0 | -10.4 | ||
| Non-recurring project costs (rental and lease) |
0.9 | 1.8 | +€48.2m (+19.5% YOY) |
|
| Current net rental and lease income | 295.7 | 247.5 | Rising adj. NRI margin despite higher maintenance |
|
| Current net income from other services | 4.0 | 1.8 | expenses | |
| Staff costs | -16.0 | -16.4 | ||
| Non-staff operating costs | -48.1 | -14.8 | ||
| LTIP (long-term incentive programme) | 0.0 | 0.2 | One-time costs (€34.4m non capitalised transaction costs including RETT) |
|
| Non-recurring project costs (admin.) | 40.4 | 6.4 | ||
| Extraordinary and prior-period expenses | 0.0 | 0.1 | ||
| Current administrative expenses | -23.7 | -24.5 | Decreasing admin. cost base in 2016 & 2017 expected |
|
| Other income and expenses | 0.2 | 0.6 | despite volume growth | |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 276.2 | 225.4 | +€50.8m (+22.5% YOY) |
|
| Cash interest expenses and income | -62.3 | -66.7 | EBITDA margin 72.4% vs. |
|
| Cash income taxes | -3.1 | -0.2 | 69.3% in 9M-2015 (excl. maintenance +370bps) |
|
| FFO I (including non-controlling interests) | 210.8 | 158.5 | ||
| Non-controlling interests | -0.2 | - | Lower interest charges (end Q3-2016 avg. cost |
|
| FFO I (excluding non-controlling interests) | 210.6 | 158.5 | 2.05% vs. 2.3% in Q3-2015) | |
| FFO II (including disposal of investment property) | 218.3 | 159.2 | ||
| Capex-adjusted FFO I (AFFO) | 163.8 | 125.0 |
| € million |
9M-2016 | 9M-2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported interest expense |
89.6 | 145.9 | One-off refinancing |
| Interest expense related to loan amortisation |
-16.6 | -27.4 | effect of €7.3m in 9M 2015 |
| Prepayment penalties / breakage costs | -4.5 | -46.7 | Release of swaps |
| Interest charges relating to valuation of assets/liabilities |
-2.1 | -1.3 | (refinancing) |
| Leasing related interest expense | -1.5 | -1.0 | |
| Interest expenses related to changes in pension provisions |
-2.4 | -2.2 | |
| Interest income | 0.0 | -0.6 | |
| Cash effective interest expense | 62.3 | 66.7 | Interest coverage improved further (4.4x up from 3.4x YOY) |
| € million |
30.09.2016 | 31.12.2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (excl. minority interests) |
2,904.1 | 2,967.8 |
| Effect of exercising options, convertibles and other rights |
491.5 | 427.2 |
| NAV | 3,395.6 | 3,395.0 |
| Fair value measurement of derivative financial instruments | 208.3 | 165.5 |
| Deferred taxes1) | 457.6 | 466.6 |
| EPRA-NAV | 4,061.5 | 4,027.1 |
| (m)2) Number of shares fully-diluted incl. convertible |
68.466 | 67.904 |
| EPRA-NAV per share in € | 59.32 | 59.31 |
| Goodwill, resulting from synergies | 36.7 | 26.4 |
| Adjusted EPRA-NAV (excl. goodwill) |
4,024.8 | 4,000.7 |
| Adjusted EPRA-NAV per share in € | 58.79 | 58.92 |
€86.0m net profit -€15.0m other comprehensive income (derivatives)
Attractive rental yield of 7.1% significantly above current asking prices in investment markets
2) Actual number of shares outstanding 63.19m 1) And goodwill resulting from deferred taxes on EPRA-adjustments 3) Assumption: growth rate of 0%
| € million |
30.09.2016 | 31.12.2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment property | 7,288.8 | 6,398.5 | Additions €1,030.8m Capex €46.8m |
| Prepayment for investment property |
5.1 | 203.1 | Reclassification/disposals |
| Other non-current assets | 176.0 | 296.8 | -€195.1m |
| Non-current assets | 7,469.9 | 6,898.4 | |
| Receivables and other assets | 79.1 | 37.2 | |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 303.8 | 252.8 | Cash flow from operating |
| Current assets | 382.9 | 290.0 | activities €146.1m Dividend -€141.9m |
| Assets held for disposal | 76.8 | 6.7 | |
| Total Assets | 7,929.6 | 7,195.1 | |
| Equity | 2,927.0 | 2,985.0 | |
| Non-current financial liabilities | 3,394.5 | 2,745.6 | |
| Other non-current liabilities |
749.0 | 673.7 | |
| Non-current liabilities | 4,143.5 | 3,419.3 | |
| Current financial liabilities | 385.8 | 496.0 | |
| Other current liabilities | 473.3 | 294.8 | |
| Current liabilities | 859.1 | 790.8 | |
| Total Equity and Liabilities |
7,929.6 | 7,195.1 | |
| € million |
30.09.2016 | 31.12.2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financing debt | 3,780.3 | 3,241.6 | Lower LTV at year end |
| Deferred purchase price liabilities |
119.3 | 0.0 | due to portfolio |
| Cash & cash equivalents | 303.8 | 252.8 | revaluation expected Low LTV leaves |
| Net Debt |
3,595.8 | 2,988.8 | headroom for additional capex and acquisitions |
| Investment properties | 7,288.8 | 6,398.5 | |
| Properties held for sale | 76.8 | 6.7 | |
| Prepayments for investment properties |
5.1 | 203.1 | Significant positive |
| Prepayments for business combinations |
- | 146.1 | impact on LTV from future conversion of |
| Property values |
7,370.7 | 6,754.4 | convertible expected (currently -360bps) |
| Loan to Value (LTV) in % | 48.8 | 44.2 | |
| Pro-forma LTV post conversion in % | 45.2 | 40.4 |
7.6%
* Maturity 2021 with investor put option 2019 (€300 m convertible bond)
| Average debt maturity: |
10.9 years |
|---|---|
| Interest costs: | Ø 2.05% |
| Hedging ratio: | 92.4% |
| Rating: | Baa1 (Moody's) |
| Expected | revaluation | gains |
|---|---|---|
| Markets | Change |
|---|---|
| Total valuation uplift | €420m - €440m (approx. +5.7-6.0%) |
| (FY-2016 estimate) / in-place rent multiple |
~14.8x |
| High-growth markets | +7.0-7.2% |
| Stable markets | +5.8-6.0% |
| Higher-yielding markets | +3.1-3.3% |
Additional upside for value enhancing capex measures due to steadily improving market fundamentals
| Closing | 30.09.2016 | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units | In-place rent € / sqm |
Occupancy | In-place rent € / sqm |
Occupancy | In-place rent € / sqm |
Occupancy | |
| Portfolio1) | 28,393 | 4.94 | 95.1% | 5.20 | 95.5% | 0.26 (+5.3%) | ~ +40 bp |
| Vitus portfolio |
9,528 | 4.76 | 96.1% | 5.06 | 96.3% | 0.30 (+6.4%) | ~ +20 bp |
| Charlie portfolio2) |
11,615 | 4.81 | 93.6% | 4.82 | 93.8% | 0.01 (+0.1%) | ~ +20 bp |
1) Acquisitions since year end 2012; excl. Charlie acquisition (13,570 units)
2) Charlie portfolio excl. disposal of ~2,000 units in September 2016
Operating performance confirms reversionary potential and LEG's management skills
Acquisitions: Leading Management Skills Paying Off Strong acquisition track record since IPO – Creating tangible value
| Deal # |
Units acquired |
Geographic focus | Market | Annual net cold rent |
In place rent/sqm |
Vacancy rate |
Signing | Purchase price |
Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ~1,100 | Recklinghausen, Herne |
Stable/ Higher Yielding |
~EUR 4.0m | EUR 4.46 | 5.4% | Apr 2016 | c.EUR 53m |
May 2016 |
| 2 | ~560 | Hamm, Krefeld, Duisburg |
High Growth/ Stable |
~EUR 1.8m | EUR 4.96 | 7.1% | July 2016 | not disclosed | Dec 2016 |
| 3 | ~320 | Duisburg, Herten | Higher Yielding/ Stable |
~EUR 2.0m | EUR 4.62 | 2.1% | Aug 2016 | not disclosed | Jan 2017 |
| c.2,000 |
| 2016 | Guidance |
|---|---|
| EPRA-NAV: | €66 - €67 per share |
| FFO I: | €261m - €265m / €4.14 - €4.21 per share |
| EBITDA margin: |
70% |
| L-F-L rent growth: | 2.4 - 2.6% |
| L-F-L vacancy: | Stable (FY-15 comparable: c.2.6%) |
| Dividend: | 65% of FFO I |
| 2017 | |
| FFO I: | €284m - €289m / €4.50 - €4.57 per share |
| EBITDA margin: |
72% |
| L-F-L rent growth: | 3.0 – 3.3% |
| 2018 | |
| FFO I: | €307m - €313m / €4.86 - €4.95 per share |
| EBITDA margin: |
73% |
L-F-L rent growth: ~3.0%
| € million |
30.09.2016 | 31.12.2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Investment properties | 6,953.3 | 6,101.6 |
| Assets held for sale | 76.4 | 6.7 |
| Market value of residential property portfolio (net) |
7,029.7 | 6,108.3 |
| Estimated incidental costs |
692.7 | 601.5 |
| Market value of residential property portfolio (gross) |
7,722.4 | 6,709.8 |
| Annualised cash flow from rental income (gross) |
508.4 | 428.1 |
| Non recoverable operating costs | -71.5 | -61.4 |
| Annualised cash flow from rental income (net) |
436.9 | 366.7 |
| EPRA Net Initial Yield in % |
5.7 | 5.5 |
| Market | Residential Units |
GAV Residential Assets (€m) |
% of Total Residential GAV |
GAV/ sqm (€) |
In-Place Rent Multiple |
Multiples, Estimated Rental Values (31.12.2015) |
GAV Commercial/ Other Assets (€m) |
Total GAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Growth Markets |
39,027 | 2,971 | 42% | 1,151 | 16.6x | 14.9x | 175 | 3,146 |
| Stable Markets with Attractive Yields |
46,728 | 2,244 | 32% | 746 | 12.7x | 12.1x | 99 | 2,344 |
| Higher Yielding Markets |
40,291 | 1,690 | 24% | 683 | 12.2x | 11.5x | 48 | 1,737 |
| Subtotal NRW | 126,046 | 6,905 | 98% | 856 | 14.0x | 13.1x | 322 | 7,227 |
| Portfolio outside NRW |
1,895 | 123 | 2% | 961 | 14.4x | 13.3x | 1 | 124 |
| Total Portfolio | 127,941 | 7,027 | 100% | 858 | 14.0x | 13.2x | 323 | 7,351 |
| Other Assets | 45 | |||||||
| Total | 7,396 |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 2015 | 2014 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | margin % |
€m | margin % | ||
| As reported |
293.7 | 67.3 | 259.3 | 66.5 | |
| Gap restricted vs. unrestricted rents1) | 22.5 | 68.9 | 21.2 | 68.2 |
1) €/sqm: €4.67 vs. €5.48 in 2015, €4.61 vs. €5.33 in 2014
units non-NRW
| Release date (expected) |
High-Growth Markets1 |
Markets1 Stable |
Higher-Yielding Markets1 |
Total Portfolio1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 (Q4) | 3,578 units (mainly Bocholt) |
2,543 units (mainly Wuppertal) |
7,757 units (mainly Gelsenkirchen, Herten) |
13,902 units2 |
| 2017 (Q1) | 11,152 units (mainly Dusseldorf, Cologne) |
15,176 units (mainly Dortmund, Solingen) |
13,691 units (mainly Duisburg, Marl, Herne) |
40,019 units |
| 2017 (Q2) | 6,075 units (mainly Munster) |
816 units | 2,023 units (mainly Dorsten) |
8,914 units |
| 2017 (Q3) | 2,169 units (mainly Krefeld) |
486 units | 2,655 units | |
| Total 1 | 20,805 units | 20,704 units | 23,957 units |
65,490 units2 |
| Thereof: - Dortmund - Duisburg - Gelsenkirchen - Dusseldorf - Munster - Cologne - Marl - Herne - Wuppertal - Solingen |
6,610 units 6,075 units 3,903 units |
13,165 units 2,028 units 1,474 units |
7,053 units 6,732 units 2,727 units 2,049 units |
1 Sub-portfolios also include |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| restricted units 2 Total Portfolio also includes 24 |
Weighting (30.09.2016): MDAX 3.21%; EPRA 2.61%
Maturity date: 1 July 2021
| Date | Report/Event |
|---|---|
| 09.11.2016 | Quarterly Report Q3 as of 30 September 2016 |
| 10./11.11.2016 | Roadshow London, Morgan Stanley |
| 14.11.2016 | Roadshow Amsterdam, Deutsche Bank |
| 15.11.2016 | Roadshow Paris, BNP Paribas |
| 02.12.2016 | Roadshow Munich, Bankhaus Lampe |
| 06.12.2016 | Berenberg European Conference 2016, London |
| 12./13.12.2016 | HSBC Global Real Estate Conference 2016, Cape Town |
| 05.01.2017 | Oddo Forum, Lyon |
| 11.01.2017 | J.P. Morgan European Real Estate CEO Conference, London |
| 16.01.2017 | 16th German Corporate Conference, KeplerCheuvreux & UniCredit, Frankfurt |
| 09.03.2017 | Annual Report as of 31 December 2016 |
Burkhard Sawazki Head of Investor Relations Tel: +49 (0) 211 4568-204 [email protected]
Karin Widenmann Manager Investor Relations Tel: +49 (0) 211 4568-458 [email protected]
40476 Dusseldorf, Germany E-Mail: [email protected]
LEG Immobilien AG Phone: +49 (0) 211 4568-400 Hans-Boeckler-Str. 38 Fax: +49 (0) 211 4568-22 204
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