Investor Presentation • Aug 9, 2018
Investor Presentation
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Hannover, 9 August 2018
| GWP | in m. | NPE | in m. | EBIT | in m. | Group net income | in m. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8,998 +11.0% |
9,985 | 7,533 | 8,346 +10.8% |
799 +13.5% |
907 | 535 | 555 +3.8% |
| 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 |
| single large P&C transactions | F/x-adj.: +18.1%; boosted by | F/x-adjusted: +17.9% | Supported by strong underwriting result from both business groups and above-target investment return |
||||
| Return on Equity | Book value per share | Solvency II ratio |
|||||
| 13.2% Well above minimum target of ≥ 9.5% |
EUR 69.00 -2.4%: payment of dividend in Q2 |
31.03.2018: 256% | |||||
| P&C R/I | EBIT: 689 m. | L&H R/I | EBIT: 219 m. | Investments | NII: 744 m. | ||
| |
Very satisfying EBIT margin (13.3%) supported by favourable underwriting result (C/R of 95.7%) Strong premium growth (f/x-adj. +27.6%) driven by new business in Structured R/I and worldwide treaty |
Strong EBIT growth (+32.8%) than expected line with expectations |
showing good underlying profitability as losses from legacy US mortality business were significantly lower Premium growth (f/x-adj. +3.7%) in |
RoI RoI (≥2.7%) |
from AuM: significantly exceeds target Stable ordinary investment income Assets under own Management (AuM): +2.1% |
3.1% |
Figures in EUR
| Group figures in m. EUR | Q2/2017 | Q2/2018 | Δ | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 4,451 | 4,640 | +4.3% | 8,998 | 9,985 | +11.0% |
| Net premium earned | 3,795 | 4,346 | +14.5% | 7,533 | 8,346 | +10.8% |
| Net underwriting result | (55) | 63 | - | (79) | 101 | - |
| - Incl. funds withheld | (5) | 119 | - | 45 | 214 | - |
| Net investment income | 387 | 352 | -8.9% | 779 | 744 | -4.6% |
| - From assets under own mgmt. | 336 | 297 | -11.6% | 656 | 630 | -4.0% |
| - From funds withheld | 50 | 55 | +9.1% | 123 | 114 | -7.8% |
| Other income and expenses | 68 | 58 | -15.5% | 99 | 63 | -36.1% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 400 | 473 | +18.5% | 799 | 907 | +13.5% |
| Long-term debt and notes payable | (18) | (20) | +10.2% | (36) | (38) | +5.2% |
| Net income before taxes | 381 | 453 | +18.9% | 764 | 870 | +13.9% |
| Taxes | (94) | (157) | +66.6% | (190) | (273) | +44.0% |
| Net income | 287 | 297 | +3.3% | 574 | 596 | +3.9% |
| - Non-controlling interests | 17 | 15 | -13.1% | 39 | 41 | +5.5% |
| Group net income | 270 | 282 | +4.3% | 535 | 555 | +3.8% |
| Retention | 90.9% | 91.4% | 90.3% | 91.3% | ||
| EBIT margin (EBIT/Net premium earned) | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | ||
| Tax ratio | 24.6% | 34.5% | 24.9% | 31.4% | ||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 2.24 | 2.34 | 4.44 | 4.60 |
| Property & Casualty R/I in m. EUR | Q2/2017 | Q2/2018 | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 2,613 | 2,888 | 5,427 | 6,467 | GWP f/x adjusted +27.6%, mainly from structured R/I; diversified growth in other areas |
| Net premium earned | 2,147 | 2,750 | 4,313 | 5,175 | NPE f/x adjusted +28.4% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
55 | 121 | 151 | 221 | Major losses of EUR 93 m. (1.8% of NPE) well below budget of EUR 351 m. |
| Combined ratio incl. interest on funds withheld |
97.4% | 95.6% | 96.5% | 95.7% | Unchanged reserving policy should lead to stable confidence level, run off without extraordinary effects |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
235 | 227 | 474 | 487 | Satisfactory ordinary investment income |
| Other income and expenses | 34 | 2 | 10 | (19) | Other income and expenses lower due to less positive currency effects |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 324 | 350 | 634 | 689 | EBIT margin of 13.3% well above target |
| Tax ratio | 24.3% | 38.5% | 24.5% | 31.0% | Tax ratio higher principally due to tax-reduced disposal gains and dividends in previous year |
| Group net income | 229 | 200 | 444 | 434 | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.90 | 1.66 | 3.68 | 3.60 |
* Up to 2011 claims over EUR 5 m. gross, from 2012 onwards claims over EUR 10 m. gross
6
| Catastrophe losses* in m. EUR Date |
Gross | Net | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storm "Friederike", Europe | 17 - 18 Jan | 48.1 | 31.1 | |
| Earthquake, Papua New Guinea | 25 - 26 Feb | 17.3 | 11.2 | |
| 2 Natural catastrophes | 65.4 | 42.4 | ||
| 2 Property claims | 44.6 | 26.3 | ||
| 1 Credit claim | 24.7 | 24.7 | ||
| 5 Major losses | 134.8 | 93.3 |
* Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross
| 1H/2018: Combined Ratio vs. MtCR | EBIT margin |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | North America* | 99.7% | 16.1% | |
| markets | Continental Europe* | 93.3% | 16.8% | |
| Marine | 62.4% | 50.2% | ||
| Aviation | 93.1% | 19.5% | ||
| Specialty lines worldwide |
Credit, surety and political risks | 88.6% | 18.6% | |
| UK, Ireland, London market and direct |
111.3% | 0.6% | ||
| Facultative R/I | 98.3% | 10.6% | ||
| Worldwide Treaty* R/I | 95.2% | 12.9% | ||
| Global R/I |
Cat XL | 40.8% | 76.5% | |
| Structured R/I and ILS | 97.5% | 5.5% | ||
| Total | 95.7% | 13.3% | ||
| 0% | 20% 40% 60% |
80% 100% 120% |
140% 160% |
MtCR = Maximum tolerable Combined Ratio Combined Ratio
* All lines of Property & Casualty reinsurance except those stated separately
| Life & Health R/I in m. EUR | Q2/2017 | Q2/2018 | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 1,838 | 1,752 | 3,570 | 3,518 | GWP f/x-adjusted +3.7%, mainly supported by UK longevity business |
| Net premium earned | 1,648 | 1,596 | 3,220 | 3,171 | NPE f/x-adjusted growth +3.8% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(60) | (3) | (106) | (7) | Improved technical result driven by better experience in morbidity and US mortality |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
100 | 70 | 180 | 142 | Favourable ordinary investment income |
| Other income and expenses | 36 | 57 | 91 | 84 | Unchanged strong contribution from deposit accounted treaties (1H/2018: EUR 93 m.) |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 75 | 123 | 165 | 219 | Targeted EBIT growth of 5% achieved |
| EBIT margin | 4.6% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | Tax ratio above long-term average due to changes in business set-up linked to the US |
| Tax ratio | 28.6% | 23.1% | 28.5% | 33.1% | tax reform in Q1/2018, expected to decrease in the course of the year |
| Group net income | 54 | 96 | 114 | 147 | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.44 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 1.22 |
| in m. EUR | Q2/2017 | Q2/2018 | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | RoI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income* | 317 | 317 | 641 | 634 | 3.1% |
| Realised gains/losses | 59 | 5 | 83 | 53 | 0.3% |
| Impairments/appreciations & depreciations |
(12) | (10) | (23) | (21) | -0.1% |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments (through P&L) |
(0) | 14 | 11 | 20 | 0.1% |
| Investment expenses | (28) | (28) | (56) | (56) | -0.3% |
| NII from assets under own mgmt. | 336 | 297 | 656 | 630 | 3.1% |
| NII from funds withheld | 50 | 55 | 123 | 114 | |
| Total net investment income | 387 | 352 | 779 | 744 | |
| Unrealised gains/losses of investments | 31 Dec 17 | 30 Jun 18 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 30 Jun 18 | |
|---|---|---|
| On-balance sheet | 1,159 | 692 |
| thereof Fixed income AFS | 706 | 290 |
| Off-balance sheet | 489 | 495 |
| thereof Fixed income HTM, L&R | 315 | 282 |
| Total | 1,648 | 1,187 |
* Incl. results from associated companies
| Investment category | 30 Jun 18 |
|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 88% |
| - Governments | 35% |
| - Semi-governments | 16% |
| - Corporates | 30% |
| Investment grade | 26% |
| Non-investment grade | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered Bonds, ABS | 8% |
| Equities | 2% |
| - Listed Equity | <1% |
| - Private Equity | 2% |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 5% |
| Others | 1% |
| Short-term investments & cash | 3% |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 41.4 |
Economic view based on market values as at 30 June 2018 * Before real estate-specific costs
| Business group | Key figures | Strategic targets for 2018 |
1H/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Return on investment1) | ≥ 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Return on equity2) | ≥ 9.5% | 13.2% | |
| Earnings per share growth (y-o-y) | ≥ 5% | 3.8% | |
| Economic value creation3) | ≥ 6.5% | n.a. | |
| Solvency ratio4) | ≥ 200% | 256.0% | |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Gross premium growth5) | 3% - 5% | 27.6% |
| Combined ratio6) | ≤ 96% | 95.7% | |
| EBIT margin7) | ≥ 10% | 13.3% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. | |
| Life & Health R/I | Gross premium growth9) | 3% - 5% | 3.7% |
| Value of New Business (VNB)10) | ≥ EUR 220 m. | n.a. | |
| EBIT growth | ≥ 5% | 32.8% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. |
5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds 5) On average throughout the R/I cycle; at constant f/x rates
6) Incl. expected net major losses 7) EBIT/net premium earned
10) Based on Solvency II principles and pre-tax reporting
1) Excl. effects from ModCo derivatives 2) After tax; target: 900 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds
3) Growth in economic equity + paid dividend; target: 600 bps above 4) According to our internal capital model and Solvency II requirements; as of 31 March 2018
8) Excess return on allocated economic capital 9) Organic growth only; annual average growth (5-year period), at constant f/x rates
Underwriting year figures at unchanged f/x rates (31 December 2017)
| Lines of business | Volume1) | Profitability2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target | North America3) | + | |
| markets | Continental Europe3) | + | |
| Marine | +/- | ||
| Aviation | - | ||
| Specialty lines |
Credit, surety and political risks | + | |
| worldwide | UK, Ireland, London market and direct | +/- | |
| Facultative reinsurance | +/- | ||
| Worldwide treaty3) reinsurance | +/- | ||
| Global reinsurance |
Cat XL | +/- | |
| Structured reinsurance and ILS | +/- | ||
1) In EUR, development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
3) All lines of business except those stated separately
2H/2018 will be affected by in-force management actions in US mortality business
| Reporting categories | Volume1) | Profitability2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial solutions |
Financial solutions | ++ | |
| Longevity | +/- | ||
| Risk solutions |
Mortality | - | |
| Morbidity | +/- |
1) In EUR; development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
Hannover Re Group
Dividend payout ratio4) 35% 45% (If comfortable level of capitalisation remains unchanged, this ratio will increase through payment of another special dividend)
2) Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses in 2018 not exceeding the large loss budget of EUR 825 m.
1) At unchanged f/x rates
Above-target VNB development and inforce management are the basis for IFRS profit growth from 2019 onwards
Normalised ordinary investment income expected at absolute level on average of past 5 years
Increasing profits (EBIT) in the medium term a low yield environment Positioned to outperform
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | Δ | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | Δ | 1H/2017 | 1H/2018 | Δ |
| Gross written premium | 5,427 | 6,467 | +19.2% | 3,570 | 3,518 | -1.5% | 8,998 | 9,985 | +11.0% |
| Net premium earned | 4,313 | 5,175 | +20.0% | 3,220 | 3,171 | -1.5% | 7,533 | 8,346 | +10.8% |
| Net underwriting result | 149 | 205 | +37.4% | (228) | (104) | -54.3% | (79) | 101 | - |
| Net underwritung result incl. funds withheld | 151 | 221 | +46.5% | (106) | (7) | -93.7% | 45 | 214 | - |
| Net investment income | 476 | 503 | +5.8% | 302 | 239 | -20.8% | 779 | 744 | -4.6% |
| From assets under own management | 474 | 487 | +2.7% | 180 | 142 | -21.4% | 656 | 630 | -4.0% |
| From funds withheld | 2 | 16 | - | 122 | 98 | -19.8% | 123 | 114 | -7.8% |
| Other income and expenses | 10 | (19) | - | 91 | 84 | -7.7% | 99 | 63 | -36.1% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 634 | 689 | +8.6% | 165 | 219 | +32.8% | 799 | 907 | +13.5% |
| Long-term debt and notes payable | 0 | 0 | - | (0) | 0 | - | (36) | (38) | +5.2% |
| Net income before taxes | 634 | 689 | +8.6% | 165 | 219 | +32.8% | 764 | 870 | +13.9% |
| Taxes | (155) | (213) | +37.2% | (47) | (73) | +54.4% | (190) | (273) | +44.0% |
| Net income | 479 | 475 | -0.7% | 118 | 147 | +24.2% | 574 | 596 | +3.9% |
| Non-controlling interest | 35 | 41 | +17.6% | 4 | (0) | -100.7% | 39 | 41 | +5.5% |
| Group net income | 444 | 434 | -2.1% | 114 | 147 | +28.5% | 535 | 555 | +3.8% |
| Retention | 89.4% | 91.4% | 91.6% | 91.2% | 90.3% | 91.3% | |||
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 96.5% | 95.7% | 103.3% | 100.2% | 99.4% | 97.4% | |||
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 14.7% | 13.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | |||
| Tax ratio | 24.5% | 31.0% | 28.5% | 33.1% | 24.9% | 31.4% | |||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 3.68 | 3.60 | 0.95 | 1.22 | 4.44 | 4.60 |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q2/2017 | Q2/2018 | Δ | Q2/2017 | Q2/2018 | Δ | Q2/2017 | Q2/2018 | Δ |
| Gross written premium | 2,613 | 2,888 | +10.5% | 1,838 | 1,752 | -4.7% | 4,451 | 4,640 | +4.3% |
| Net premium earned | 2,147 | 2,750 | +28.1% | 1,648 | 1,596 | -3.1% | 3,795 | 4,346 | +14.5% |
| Net underwriting result | 58 | 113 | +93.6% | (114) | (49) | -56.6% | (55) | 63 | - |
| Net underwritung result incl. funds withheld | 55 | 121 | +120.6% | (60) | (3) | -95.4% | (5) | 119 | - |
| Net investment income | 232 | 235 | +1.2% | 153 | 116 | -24.2% | 387 | 352 | -8.9% |
| From assets under own management | 235 | 227 | -3.8% | 100 | 70 | -30.1% | 336 | 297 | -11.6% |
| From funds withheld | (3) | 8 | - | 54 | 47 | -13.2% | 50 | 55 | +9.1% |
| Other income and expenses | 34 | 2 | -94.2% | 36 | 57 | +57.7% | 68 | 58 | -15.5% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 324 | 350 | +7.8% | 75 | 123 | +63.6% | 400 | 473 | +18.5% |
| Long-term debt and notes payable | (0) | 0 | - | (0) | 0 | - | (18) | (20) | +10.2% |
| Net income before taxes | 324 | 350 | +7.8% | 75 | 123 | +63.6% | 381 | 453 | +18.9% |
| Taxes | (79) | (135) | +70.5% | (22) | (29) | +32.3% | (94) | (157) | +66.6% |
| Net income | 246 | 215 | -12.3% | 54 | 95 | +76.2% | 287 | 297 | +3.3% |
| Non-controlling interest | 17 | 16 | -7.1% | 0 | (1) | - | 17 | 15 | -13.1% |
| Group net income | 229 | 200 | -12.7% | 54 | 96 | +78.5% | 270 | 282 | +4.3% |
| Retention | 90.3% | 91.3% | 91.8% | 91.7% | 90.9% | 91.4% | |||
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 97.4% | 95.6% | 103.6% | 100.2% | 100.1% | 97.3% | |||
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 15.1% | 12.7% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 10.9% | |||
| Tax ratio | 24.3% | 38.5% | 28.6% | 23.1% | 24.6% | 34.5% | |||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.90 | 1.66 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 2.24 | 2.34 |
| Investment category | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 30 Jun 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 90% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 88% |
| - Governments | 21% | 26% | 28% | 30% | 35% |
| - Semi-governments | 19% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 16% |
| - Corporates | 36% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 30% |
| Investment grade | 33% | 30% | 28% | 27% | 26% |
| Non-investment grade | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS | 14% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 2) 8% |
| Equities | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| - Listed equity | <1% | 1% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| - Private equity | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Short-term investments & cash | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 36.8 | 39.8 | 42.3 | 40.5 | 41.4 |
1) Economic view based on market values without outstanding commitments for Private Equity and Alternative Real Estate as well as fixed-income investments
of EUR 1,385.3 m. (EUR 1,201.9 m.) as at 30 June 2018
2) Of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 73.6%
| Portfolio | Scenario | Change in market value in m. EUR |
Change in OCI before tax in m. EUR |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -86 | -86 | ||
| Equity (listed and private equity) | -20% | -171 | -171 | |
| +50 bps | -882 | -805 | ||
| Fixed-income securities | +100 bps | -1,719 | -1,568 | |
| Credit spreads | +50% | -693 | -664 |
| Governments | Semi governments |
Corporates | Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS |
Short-term investments, cash |
Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 78.1% | 61.0% | 1.2% | 62.8% | - | 48.7% | ||||||
| A A |
12.7% | 26.2% | 14.4% | 20.8% | - | 16.4% | ||||||
| A | 5.4% | 5.7% | 33.9% | 9.7% | - | 15.1% | ||||||
| BBB | 2.0% | 1.5% | 42.9% | 5.0% | - | 15.4% | ||||||
| <bbb< td=""> | 1.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 1.8% | - | 4.4% | </bbb<>1.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 1.8% | - | 4.4% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | - | 100.0% | ||||||
| Germany | 16.8% | 45.3% | 4.2% | 22.1% | 18.9% | 18.4% | ||||||
| UK | 7.7% | 2.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | ||||||
| France | 1.1% | 1.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 0.8% | 3.6% | ||||||
| GIIPS | 0.9% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 2.3% | ||||||
| Rest of Europe | 2.2% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 20.4% | 3.5% | 9.6% | ||||||
| USA | 56.0% | 9.2% | 34.3% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 35.8% | ||||||
| Australia | 3.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | ||||||
| Asia | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 31.8% | 7.3% | ||||||
| Rest of World | 4.0% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% | ||||||
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
| Total b/s values in m. EUR | 14,412 | 6,511 | 11,514 | 3,071 | 1,407 | 36,915 |
IFRS figures as at 30 June 2018
Modified duration
| 2017 | 4.8 |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 |
| 2014 | 4.6 |
| 2013 | 4.4 |
| 2012 | 4.5 |
Modified duration as at 30 June 2018: 4.9
Economic view based on market values as at 30 June 2018 * Governments and Semi-Governments
This presentation does not address the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person or legal entity. Investors should seek independent professional advice and perform their own analysis regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of our securities.
While Hannover Re has endeavoured to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-to-date, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information.
Some of the statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on currently available information. Such statements naturally are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors such as the development of general economic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements.
This presentation serves information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer or solicitation to acquire, subscribe to or dispose of, any of the securities of Hannover Re.
© Hannover Rück SE. All rights reserved. Hannover Re is the registered service mark of Hannover Rück SE.
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