CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
LONDON, 29 MARCH 2019
Agenda
| Slot |
Topic |
Speaker |
09:00 –
10:00 |
Results
& Portfolio Review |
Kruno Crepulja (CEO), Foruhar Madjlessi (CFO) |
10:00 –
11:00 |
Case Study WWW.Luisenpark.Berlin |
Carsten Sellschopf, COO Berlin & Hamburg |
11:00 –
11:15 |
Coffee Break |
|
11:15 –
12:15 |
Deep
Dive
Rhine Main Portfolio |
Ralf Werner, Head of Rhine Main Region |
| 12:15 |
Networking Lunch |
|
RESULTS & PORTFOLIO REVIEW
KRUNO CREPULJA
FORUHAR MADJLESSI
2018 Key Achievements
Financial performance & outlook
- Total pipeline of €4.8bn expected sales volume
- €310m valuation uplift related to existing projects
- Aquired projects with €1.3 bn expected sales volume
- Construction launched for projects with ~€475m expected sales volume (~954 units)
- Concluded sales contracts for €461m expected sales volume (1,033 units)
- Adjusted revenues of €372.8m; Adjusted gross profit margin of 28.6%
- Adjusted EBIT of €49.6m and adjusted EBT of €41.5m (€5.1m extraordinary expenses not adjusted)
- Moderate leverage of Net Debt / adj. EBITDA of 3.5x
- FY 2019 outlook:
- Adjusted revenues: €500-550m
- Adjusted gross profit margin: ~28%
- Adjusted EBIT: €85-100m
FY 2018 Key Figures vs Outlook
| € million |
2018 Actual |
|
2018 Outlook |
|
Adjusted
for
ppa* |
Adjusted
for
ppa
+ extraordinary
items
of €5.1m |
|
| Revenues |
372.8 |
372.8 |
370 -
400 |
| Gross Profit Margin |
28.6% |
28.6% |
~24% |
| EBIT |
49.6 |
54.7 |
48 -
54 |
| EBT |
41.5 |
46.6 |
32 -
37 |
Volume of concludes
sales
contracts |
460.8 |
460.8 |
~ 500 |
*€12m ppa-effect
- Strong gross profit margin driven by better performance of individual projects
- EBT driven by significant improvement of financing structure
- Volume of concluded sales contracts below outlook due to conscious slowdown of sales process in order to optimize pricing
€4.8bn Project Portfolio
- 45 projects with 11,041 units; 21% of expected sales volume already sold; 24% of expected sales volume under construction
- Avg. appartment size: 80 sqm / ASP per sqm: €5,336 incl. parking space (€5,090 excl.) / ASP per appartment: €427K
Project portfolio data per 31.12.2018
FY 2018 – Significant Increase of Project Portfolio
Project portfolio
(expected
sales
volume) |
2018 Project
Acquisitions |
|
|
|
|
|
Project |
City |
Exp. sales
volume
(€m) |
Units |
Building
right |
|
Semmelweisstrasse |
Leipzig |
66 |
210 |
completed |
|
Sportplatz
Bult |
Hannover |
116 |
281 |
in progress |
|
Neckartalterassen |
Rottenburg |
105 |
364 |
in progress |
|
Beethoven Park |
Augsburg |
135 |
396 |
completed |
|
Kösliner
Weg |
Norderstedt |
102 |
286 |
in progress |
|
Rote Kaserne |
Potsdam |
47 |
114 |
completed |
|
Gallus1 |
Frankfurt/M. |
39 |
69 |
completed |
|
Gartenstadt Quartier |
Dortmund |
97 |
247 |
in progress |
| (Projects remain in portfolio until being fully completed and handed over to customers) |
Large project2 |
German
metropolitan
region |
>5003 |
1,347 |
completed |
|
Total |
|
1,298 |
3,314 |
|
1) Expect signing in Q2 2019
2) Signed, but project is still subject to a condition subsequent, the occurrence of which is uncertain. (see adhoc release of 13.12.2018) 3) Relates to investment volume
Acquisition Pipeline
Tangible opportunities
| Project |
Exp. sales
volume
(€m) |
Units |
| Augsburg |
~220 |
~600 |
Metropolitan
region
Hamburg |
~195 |
~470 |
Metropolitan region
Rhein Ruhr |
~75 |
~200 |
Metropolitan
region
Frankfurt |
~75 |
~150 |
Metropolitan region
Stuttgart |
~50 |
~130 |
Metropolitan region
Hamburg |
~68 |
~180 |
Metropiltan
region
Rhine Main |
~82 |
~280 |
| Total |
~765 |
~2,010 |
NRW; 32% Rhine Main; 27% Hamburg / Hannover; 19% Berlin; 9% Leipzig; 6% Bavaria; 5% Baden Wurttemb Short/Midterm opportunities Longterm opportunities
Total: €5.6bn Total: €6.6bn
Status Update on Project in German Metropolitan Region
- Large inner-city project in German metropolitan region
- 124K sqm gross floor area
- 1,347 units
- Existing masterplan
- Purchase contract signed1
- Forward sale; LOI signed with institutional buyer
- Investment volume >€500m
- Expected gross margin of ~18%; Attractive IRR
- Sales and pofit contribution not reflected in current guidance
1) Project is still subject to a condition subsequent, the occurrence of which is uncertain. (see adhoc release of 13.12.2018)
Cost Price Inflation (Construction Cost)
Market:
- Average cost price inflation in Germany in 2018 at ~5%; in years 2015-17 at ~3.5%
- Mainly labour (65-70%), materials (30-35%)
- Wide spread of CPI for different works
Instone:
- 2018 cost price inflation of ~2%; in the years 2015-2017 below1.5%
- Total €380m purchase volume (+VAT) in 2017 (151m) and 2018 (229m)
- CPI and purchase volume fully in line with budget
- Instone's benefits in the procurement process:
- The strong network of suppliers with partner companies
- Base revenue basket for the suppliers
- Running early regional and nationwide tender processes
- Instone assumes annual 3.5% cost price inflation for the future exceeding the cost price inflation in 2018 (based on single awarding approach)
House Price Inflation
Market:
• 2018 house price inflation in Germany's Top 8 cities of ~6-8% (for comparable product with Instone)
Instone:
- €310m increased sales volume of existing projects in FY 2018 mainly driven by HPI (77%) vs increased density (23%)
- Achieved 28.6% gross margin in FY 2018 exceeding outlook due to HPI
- Gross margin of typical Instone project with a longer cycle driven by masterplanning process and condominium sales benefits from a market where HPI is overcompensating CPI
- FY 2019 expected gross margin of 28% is based on 1.5% HPI and 3.5% CPI
- Expect gross margin of 25%+ for 2020 and following years (including forward sale of large project in metropolitan region and generally assuming that our share of forward sales will increase to ~30% of total sales)
- Calculating average ~25% gross margin for new projects assuming 1.5% HPI and 3.5% CPI (assuming owner occupier sale)
- HPI development in Germany might offer further upside potential
Earnings Before Tax Sensitivity for FY 2021*
Cost Price Inflation p.a.
in
€m |
0.0% |
3.5% |
7.0% |
10.5% |
14.0% |
| 0.0% |
0 |
-15 |
-30 |
-45 |
-60 |
| 1.5% |
15 |
0 |
-15 |
-30 |
-45 |
| 3.0% |
30 |
15 |
0 |
-15 |
-30 |
| 4.5% |
45 |
30 |
15 |
0 |
-15 |
| 6.0% |
60 |
45 |
30 |
15 |
0 |
• Includes only existing projects not yet being in the sales process
• Assuming that sales process will be initiated for 1/3 of portfolio in 6 months, 1/3 in 1.5 years and 1/3 in 2.5 years
• Assuming 3% sales commission
House Price Inflation p.a.
Strict Approach to Corporate M&A
- German residential developer market still highly fragmented with mostly strong local / regional developers
- Significant potential for consolidation over the next years (e.g. several companies with unsolved corporate succession)
- Instone will selectively engage in M&A-activity in case of strategic fit and attractive financial merit
- Focus on M&A targets with at least two of the following prerequisites:
- Residential development projects in attractive German cities (same or additional locations to Instone)
- Robust development pipeline
- Complementary residential development products (e.g. affordable housing)
- Strong team with credible track record
- High margins and / or IRR at or close to Instone benchmark
Basis of Presentation
- First full year results presentation based on new IFRS 15 "contracts with customers"
- Revenues recognized over time (as opposed to at a point in time under previously applied completed contract method)
- Aggregate achieved customer sales contracts and building progress of individual projects are key drivers for revenue recognition
- Reduction of total assets based on netting of prepayments with contract assets
- Increased equity by ca. €45m reflecting deemed IFRS 15 profits in prior years
FY 2018 Results of Operations
FY
2018 Results
of Operations
(€m) |
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted
for
ppa |
Adjusted
for
ppa
+ extraordinary
items |
|
|
| Revenues |
372.8 |
372.8 |
|
|
Project
cost |
-266.3 |
-266.3 |
|
|
| Gross profit |
106.4 |
106.4 |
|
|
| Margin |
28.6% |
28.6% |
|
|
Platform
cost |
-56.9 |
-51.8 |
|
|
| EBIT |
49.6 |
54.7 |
|
|
| Margin |
13.3% |
|
|
|
Result
from
investments |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
|
|
Financial
Result |
-7.7 |
-7.7 |
|
|
| EBT |
41.5 |
46.6 |
|
|
| Margin |
11.1% |
|
|
|
- Revenues, EBIT and EBT include €12.0m adjustment for ppa effect
- Anticipated revenues related to lower margin projects over compensated by high-margin project revenues
- Platform cost not adjusted for extraordinary items of €5.1m:
Extraordinary
items
(€m) |
|
|
|
|
| IPO related |
2.0 |
|
|
|
| Management Changes |
1.5 |
|
|
|
Acquisition
DD related |
1.6 |
|
|
|
| Total |
5.1 |
|
|
|
• Significantly improved group financing structure
Tax Consideration and Minorities
|
€m |
| EBT |
41.5 |
"Recurring" IFRS income
tax |
11.6 |
Recurring
IFRS income
tax
rate |
28.0% |
One-off
IFRS income
tax |
9.8 |
Total IFRS income
tax |
22.4 |
Total IFRS income
tax
rate |
54.0% |
| Net income |
19.1 |
| Minorities |
2.5 |
- Recurring IFRS income tax of €11.6m (implied tax rate of 28%)
- 9.8m non-cash amortization of deferred tax asset related to previously recorded provision for IPO related management incentives (implied total IFRS tax rate of 54%)
- Aggregate statutory trade and corporate tax loss carry forward on holding level of >€50m currently not available to offset group profits
- Expected annual incremental holding losses of €10m
- We are currently reviewing the possibility to optimize the group tax structure
Moderate Leverage
| In € million |
FY 2018 |
FY 2017 |
Delta |
Corporate
debt |
69.8 |
151.6 |
-
>100% |
Project
related
debt |
195.7 |
224.1 |
-12.7% |
| Financial debt |
265.5 |
375.7 |
-29.1% |
-
Cash and
cash equivalents |
-88.0 |
-73.6 |
19.6% |
Net financial
debt |
177.5 |
302.1 |
-41.0% |
|
|
|
|
| EBITDA (adjusted) |
50.2 |
12.8 |
>100% |
Net debt/adjusted
EBITDA |
3.5x |
23.6 |
- |
Gross corporate
debt/adjusted
EBITDA
less
project
interest
expenses |
1.6x |
31.6 |
|
- Pre-IPO corporate debt redemption of €22m mezzanine loan for the acquisition of Instone Real Estate Leipzig GmbH
- Significant decrease of 2018 net debt based on c. €140m net primary IPO proceeds
- Repaid €57.8m high yielding shareholder loan (7%p.a.)
- Moderate FY 2018 leverage of 3.5x Net Debt / adjusted EBITDA
- Corporate debt / adjusted EBITDA less projet interest expense of 1.6x
Positive Development Continues
projects**:
(**% figures referring to midpoint of guidance) (*Revenue guidance excluding impact from large project in German metropolitan region)
CASE STUDY WWW.LUISENPARK.BERLIN
CARSTEN SELLSCHOPF
Berlin
Population
- 3.645 Mio. inhabitants in 2018
- Increase of ~ 5.2% expected by 2035
Employment
Increase of ~ 25.4% expected by 2035
Purchasing power
- From 2007 to 2018, increase of 24.6%
- Puchasing power index stands at 93.2 in 2018
Construction activity
- 2011 -2018: approved units 86.064 / completed units 44.793
- Realisation rate by ~ 52 %
Housing requirements
| By 2035, approximately 440,000 units will be needed 19
Change average purchase price 2014-2018 (Top 10) as a percentage
Berlin
Average purchase price in first entry 2018 (Top/Bottom 5) in Euro/sqm
Change average rent 2014-2018 (Top 10) in percent
Average rent in first year entry 2018 (Top/Bottom 5) in Euro/sqm
|
Source: Bulwiengesa AG
Apartments for Berlin
- Increasing population and high demand for housing space in Berlin – dynamic property market
- Central location and efficient apartments very popular
- Big challenge to acquire building plots and site planning
- Key issue and solution is cooperation with public authorities
- "Luisenpark" as current example for successful project development
Luisenpark - Basics
- Plot: 19.000 sqm in Berlin Mitte
- Property purchase in Feb. 2015
- Agreement of zoning plan and building permit in 2017
- Total of approx. 37.400 sqm NFA
- 548 apartments in total, including: - 409 freehold condos and
- 139 affordable housing apartments
- 6 commercial units, 1 kindergarten
- 174 lots in underground car park
Versatile Condominium
- Sales launch April 2017 (BA 1) / currently 95% sold Jan. 2018 (BA 3) / currently 63 % sold or reserved with fee
- Handover (BA 1) Q3 2019
- Handover (BA 3) and total completion Q3 2020
- Instone's USP in acquisition: more floorspace, up-and-coming market and Berlin Model
Legal frame for new zoning
- Legally binding land use (zoning) plan in co-operation with the Senat of Berlin and / or city district
- Development obligations defined in the decree "Berliner Model"
- Future development contract will define specific obligations and time frame of the development
Space-Efficient Apartments
2 rooms 43m² 3 rooms 81m² 4 rooms 112m²
Best fit-out
- Oak parquet flooring
- Heated flooring
- Generous 2.8 m ceiling height
- Floor-to-ceiling windows
- Vast majority of units with own balcony
- Walk-In Showers
- Bathroom features from wellknown German brands
- High-value tiling
|
26
Fit-out Configurator
- Marketingtool 24/7
- Line A "Standard" and Alternatives (Line B and C - surcharge)
- AIDA
- Definition and Minimization of Customer Wishes
- Secured Processes in Project Management through Product Checks in Advance and Framework Purchase Agreements
| 1. Bad |
2. Bad |
| DUSCHBAD |
WANNENBAD |
| DESIGNLINIE |
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| BODENFLIESEN |
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| WANDFLIESEN |
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| WASCHTISCH |
۸ |
| WC |
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| DRÜCKERPLATTE |
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| WASCHTISCHARMATUR |
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| DUSCHARMATUR |
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| DECKENLEUCHTEN |
$\hat{\phantom{a}}$ |
| Badausstattung |
: Bodengleiche Dusche mit Entwässerungsrinne |
$0.00 \in$ |
| Austausch Badtyp |
: kein Austausch |
$0.00 \in$ |
| Bodenfliesen |
: Porcelaingres - Serie Urban Sand, Format 60x30cm |
200.00€ |
| Wandfliesen |
: Porcelaingres - Serie Urban Grey, Format 60x30cm |
500.00€ |
| Waschtisch |
: Duravit - Happy D.2, 60x50cm |
200.00€ |
| WC |
: Villeroy & Boch - Subway WandTiefspül-WC, 56x37cm, Soft Close |
100.00€ |
| Drückerplatte |
: Grohe Arena Cosmopolitan Chrom matt |
50.00€ |
| Waschtischamartur |
: Hansgrohe - Metris S, Einhebel-Waschtischmischer |
50.00€ |
| Duscharmatur |
: Hansgrohe - Raindance Select S240 2-Jet Showerpipe |
500.00€ |
| Deckenleuchten |
: Abgehängte Decke mit Einbauspots |
2000.00€ |
| Badausstattung |
: Badewanne Kaldewei Saniform Plus 175x75cm |
$0.00 \in$ |
| Austausch Badtyp |
: kein Austausch |
$0.00 \in$ |
| Bodenfliesen |
: Porcelaingres - Serie Urban Grey, Format 60x30cm |
200.00€ |
| Wandfliesen |
: Porcelaingres - Serie Urban Grey, Format 60x30cm |
500.00€ |
| Waschtisch |
: Duravit - Happy D.2, 60x50cm |
200.00€ |
| WC |
: Duravit - Happy D.2 Wand-WC, 54x36.5cm, Rimless, Soft Close |
150.00€ |
| Drückerplatte |
: Grohe Skate Cosmopolitan Titanium, anti fingerprint |
80.00€ |
| Waschtischamartur |
: Axor - Citterio M. Einhebel-Waschtischmischer |
100.00€ |
| Wannenarmatur |
: Axor Citterio M Wannenthermostat; Axor Uno Brauseset mit Raindance Select S120 3-Jet Handbrause |
200.00€ |
| Deckenleuchten |
: Abgehängte Decke mit Einbauspots |
2000.00€ |
| Parkett |
: Eichenparkett - Langstab 1250x100x9,5mm - Sortierung 14, 2 Schichten - gebürstet, naturgeölt (Fläche: 97.50 m 2 ) |
3412.50€ |
| Aufpreis zum Standard |
|
10442.50€ |
| Timeline |
|
|
|
Handover
of
BA 4 |
|
Project
Relaunch |
Acquisition
of plot
Submission of
building application |
|
Building permission obtained
Start of excavation BA3
Start of construction
planning BA3 |
Completion |
of
BA3 Sales
Completion of
construction BA3
Project
completion BA3 |
Jan
2015
28
|
Aug
Mar
Apr
2016
2017
2016 |
May
Jun
Jul
Oct
2017
2017
2017
2017
Start of excavation BA1
Start of sales BA1 |
Dec
Dec
2018
2017
Start of construction planning BA1 |
Jun
Dec
Apr
2019
2019
2020
Completion of construction BA1
Completion
of
Sales
BA1 |
Dec
2020
Project completion BA1 |
Competencies and processes
Risk Management
|
Financials (Luisenpark) |
|
|
Cost of plot: |
€ 34.4 m |
|
Total investment: |
€ 174.6 m |
|
Total sales: |
€ 232.7 m |
|
Gross margin: |
€ 78.5 m (33.74 %) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Key Achievements
- Strategic Acquisition
- Successful planning process
- High Margins
- Completion expected on time and budget
DEEP DIVE RHINE MAIN PORTFOLIO
RALF WERNER
FRANKFURT
POPULATION
- 0,756 Mio. inhabitants in 2018
- Increase of ~ 10,2 % expected by 2035
EMPLOYMENT
Increase of ~ 8,8% expected by 2035
PURCHASING POWER
- From 2007 to 2018, it increased by 8,8 %
- Puchasing power index stands at 114,4 in 2018
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
- 2011 -2018: approved units 28.776/ completed units 22.927
- Realisation rate by ~ 80 %
HOUSING REQUIREMENTS
FRANKFURT
Change average purchase price 2014-2018 (Top 10) as a percentage
Average purchase price in first entry 2018 (Top/Bottom 5) in Euro/sqm
Average rent in first year entry 2018 (Top/Bottom 5) in Euro/sqm
Change average rent 2014-2018 (Top 10) in percent
Source: Bulwiengesa AG
SCHÖNHOFVIERTEL FRANKFURT, RÖDELHEIMER LANDSTRAßE
SCHÖNHOF-VIERTEL
PROPERTY
SCHÖNHOF-VIERTEL
FRANKFURT – LIFE IS SCHÖNHOF
START CONSTR.WORK GFA LIVING SPACE CONDOMINIUM TOTAL INVESTMENT
2020 113.500 M² 90.800 M² 1.100 409.990.000 €
SCHÖNHOFVIERTEL DAS LEBEN IST SCHÖNHOF
SCHÖNHOF-VIERTEL
MODELPICTURE
COMPLETION GFA LIVING SPACE CONDOMINIUM TOTAL INVESTMENT 4.Q 2021 25.400 M² 21.065 M² 181 135.000.000 €
MARIE NORDENDPLATZ
4.Q 2019 17.800 M² 14.900 M² 151 + 9 CITY VILLAS 62.599.000 €
COMPLETION GFA LIVING SPACE CONDOMINIUM TOTAL INVESTMENT
WILHELMS IX City: Wiesbaden, Street: Mainzer Straße IX WIESBADEN, MAINZER STRAßE
KEYFACTS Projektdauer: 2016-2019
Wohnfläche: 15.900
Wohneinheiten: 151
50
WILHELMS IX WIESBADEN, MAINZER STRAßE
GÜNTHERSBURGHÖFE FRANKFURT, FRIEDBERGER LANDSTR.
START CONSTR.WORK GFA PLOT AREA CONDOMINIUM TOTAL INVESTMENT
2021 65.000 M² 140.000 M² 650 263.840.000 €
GÜNTHERSBURGHÖFE FRANKFURT, FRIEDBERGER LANDSTR.
GÜNTHERS-BURGHÖFE 2
GÜNTHERS-BURGHÖFE 2
LEO II FRANKFURT, LEONARDO-DA-VINCI-ALLEE
LEO II FRANKFURT, LEONARDO-DA-VINCI-ALLEE
START CONSTR.WORK GFA LIVING SPACE CONDOMINIUM TOTAL INVESTMENT
2018 12.659 M² 11.000 M² 121 + KITA 43.587.000 €
STEINBACHER HOHL FRANKFURT, PRAUNHEIM
STEINBACHER HOHL FRANKFURT, PRAUNHEIM
START CONSTR.WORK GFA PARKING LOTS CONDOMINIUM TOTAL INVESTMENT 2020 18.000 M² 154 175 + 1 KITA 36.724.000 €
ELISABETHENAREAL FRANKFURT, GINNHEIMER STRASSE
START CONSTR.WORK GFA TOTAL INVESTMENT 2022 13.000 M² 48.026.000 €
LANGE SEEGEWANN WIESBADEN, DELKENHEIM
| START CONSTR.WORK |
GFA |
CONDOMINIUM |
FLOORS |
PARKING LOTS |
TOTAL INVESTMENT |
| 2020 |
26.000 M² |
240 + 53 SFH + 1 KITA |
2-4 |
135 |
82.621.00€ |
THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST!
Instone Real Estate & Development GmbH
Wiesenhüttenplatz 25 60329 Frankfurt am Main
[email protected]
+49 69 2547 414 43
BACKUP
WWW.LUISENPARK.BERLIN
History of change
- Densely populated, pre-1945
- Destroyed during World War II
- Bisected by the Berlin Wall until 1989
- Returned to Federal Government after German reunification in 1990
- Unsuccessful development attempts since 1994
- Sold to formart/Instone Feb. 2015
|
68
Smart Urban Design
- 2008: Basic urban scheme proposed by Hon. Prof. Nalbach
- 2015: additional design competition with Borough, Senate, Formart/Instone
- 2017: Agreement of zoning plan and building permit
- Project subdivided into stages; various architects
Structure of Project
- BA1: 180 units / Instone RE
- BA2: 40 units / neighbor Tietz GbR
- BA3: 230 units / Instone RE
- BA4: 139 units / Howoge
- Cosmopolitan Houses: Axthelm Rolvien Architekten
- Parkside Houses
- Gruentuch Ernst Architekten
- BA4: brh Architekten
Affordable Housing Alexandrinenstrasse
Cosmopolitan Houses Stallschreiberstrasse
Parkside Houses – view from the park
Upgrade Penthouses
- Constructional measures Penthouses:
- Room-high fireplace (first stage)
- Upgrade to country style plank (Bauwerk Villapark)
- BUS-System Busch Jaeger in first stage (plugs and light)
- Additional outdoor lighting and plugs
- Upgrade to Line C in special flats
Green Community
- Large, green, traffic-free courtyard
- High-value landscaping
- Sculptured, versatile playgrounds
- Semi-public footpaths
- Integrated, sustainable concept for entire project
- Direct access to "Luisenstädtischen Kirchpark"
Everything under control
Construction work proceeding according to plan
Sales Process
Instone's USP in sales process:
- best agents,
- transparent processes,
- different channels,
- increasing prices
Development of Sales Prices BA 3
Disclaimer
Contact
Thomas Eisenlohr Head of Investor Relations Instone Real Estate Group AG Grugaplatz 2-4, 45131 Essen T +49 201 45355-365 | F +49 201 45355-904 [email protected] [email protected] www.instone.de