Investor Presentation • Nov 5, 2019
Investor Presentation
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Rolf Buch, CEO Helene von Roeder, CFO
| Highlights | 3 |
|---|---|
| Segment Results & Portfolio | 4-10 |
| Valuation & NAV | 11-13 |
| LTV & Financing | 14-15 |
| Hembla Update & Acquisition Criteria | 16-17 |
| Guidance 2019 & 2020 | 18-19 |
| Berlin & Regulation | 20 |
| Political & Public Debate | 21-22 |
| Wrap-up | 23 |
| Appendix | 24 |
| Highlights | Segment Results Valuation LTV Hembla Update Guidance Berlin Political & Public Appendix & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 & Regulation Debate |
|---|---|
| Performance | Y-o-y increase across all four segments Adj. EBITDA Total €1,331.1m (+16.7%) Group FFO €932.8m (+10.7%) and €1.72 per share (+5.5%; eop shares) |
| NAV & Valuation |
Adj. NAV per share €48.92 (+9.0% since YE 2018) Est. H2 2019 total fair value growth of €2.1bn – €2.8bn (4.4% - 5.9%) expected YE2019E Adj. NAV per share estimated to come out between €51.5 and €53 |
| Capital Structure |
LTV 40.3% (-250bps since YE 2018) Pro forma year-end LTV incl. Hembla acquisition, financing and H2 valuation estimated to be toward the upper end but still well within our target range Net debt/EBITDA multiple 11.1x |
| Guidance 2019 (final) 2020 (initial) |
Final guidance 2019: Total EBITDA and Group FFO at the upper end of the range leading to a dividend p.s. of €1.57 to be proposed to the AGM in May 2020 Initial guidance 2020: Total EBITDA of €1,875m – €1,925m and Group FFO of €1,275m – €1,325m |
| Regulation & political debate |
Berlin-specific rent freeze expected to become law in Q1 2020. 2020E impact on Group FFO: ~€6m Discussions about regulation expected to continue but risk of rent freeze or similar regulation outside Berlin remains extremely low Well-balanced stakeholder debate more important than ever and Vonovia is leading by example |
1 Consolidation in 9M 2019 (9M 2018) comprised intragroup profits of €34.3m (€26.5m), the valuation result of new construction/development to hold of €33.1m (€10.2m), and IFRS 16 effects of €22.2m (€0.0m).
| Highlights & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 & Regulation Debate |
Segment Results | Valuation | LTV | Hembla Update | Guidance | Berlin | Political & Public | Appendix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -- | ----------------- | ----------- | ----- | --------------- | ---------- | -------- | -------------------- | ---------- |
| Rental Segment (€m) | 9M 2019 |
9M 2018 |
Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental income | 1,527.0 | 1,393.3 | +9.6% |
| Maintenance expenses | -230.2 | -218.8 | +5.2% |
| Operating expenses1 | -214.3 | -207.8 | +3.1% |
| Adj. EBITDA Rental | 1,082.5 | 966.7 | +12.0% |
Rental Segment
The increase in operating expenses is mainly attributable to the inclusion of ~€30m (pass-through) ancillary expenses for Victoria Park due to the all-inclusive rent levels in Sweden.
1 Prior-year adjusted to include corporate transaction costs.
Rental income by geography
2 EBITDA Operations margin (Adj. EBITDA Rental + Adj. EBITDA Value-add – intragroup profits). 2019 margin includes positive impact from IFRS 16.
9M 2019 Earnings Call
| Operating KPIs Rental Segment | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
Rental Segment
| Segment Results Highlights & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 & Regulation Debate |
Valuation LTV Hembla Update |
Guidance Berlin Political & Public |
Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | ---------- |
Value-add Segment
1 Pre-tax WACC in impairment test of 5.1%. 2 Distribution based on FY2019 expectations
| Segment | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. EBITDA Contribution from Recurring Sales Up 15.7% | |||
| Segment Results Valuation LTV Hembla Update Guidance Highlights & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
| Stable sales volume but higher proceeds and fair value step-up y-o-y. | Geographic split by sales proceeds | ||
| FV step-up improvement also driven by disposals in Austria. | Austria | ||
| Avg. sales prices up 10% y-o-y. | 30% | ||
| Outside the Recurring Sales Segment we sold 1,679 non-core units in | Germany | ||
| 9M 2019 with a fair value step-up of 15.2%. | 70% | ||
| Recurring Sales Segment (€m) | 9M 9M 2019 2018 |
Delta | |
| Units sold | 1,893 1,992 |
-5.0% | |
| Gross proceeds | 273.5 261.7 |
+4.5% | |
| Fair value | -193.4 -190.8 |
+1.4% | |
| Adjusted earnings | 80.1 70.9 |
+13.0% | |
| Fair-value step-up | 41.4% 37.1% |
+430bps | |
| Selling costs1 | -11.0 -11.2 |
-1.8% | |
| Adj. EBITDA Recurring Sales | 69.1 59.7 |
+15.7% |
Recurring Sales
1 Prior-year adjusted to exclude corporate transaction costs.
Development Segment
| Segment Results Valuation LTV Hembla Update Guidance Berlin Highlights & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 & Regulation |
Political & Public Appendix Debate |
|---|---|
| ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------ |
Development Segment
2019 target: up to 1,400 completions
2019 target: up to 800 completions
1Vonovia Portfolio. Index Q1 2017 = 100. Not like-for-like. Data source: empirica; own analysis
| Adj. NAV Growth of +9.0% per share | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
| €m (unless indicated otherwise) |
Sep. 30, 2019 | Dec. 31, 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity attributable to Vonovia's shareholders |
18,123.7 | 17,880.2 |
| Deferred taxes on investment properties | 9,055.1 | 8,161.1 |
| Fair value of derivative financial instruments1 | 106.5 | 87.2 |
| Deferred taxes on derivative financial instruments | -28.9 | -23.5 |
| EPRA NAV | 27,256.4 | 26,105.0 |
| Goodwill | -730.6 | -2,842.4 |
| Adj. NAV | 26,525.8 | 23,262.6 |
| EPRA NAV €/share | 50.26 | 50.39 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. NAV €/share | 48.92 | 44.90 | +9.0% |
| Number of shares (eop) |
542.3 | 518.1 |
1 Adjusted for effects from cross currency swaps.
| €m (unless indicated otherwise) |
Sep 30, 2019 | Dec 31, 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Non-derivative financial liabilities | 20,505.6 | 20,136.0 |
| Foreign exchange rate effects | -45.4 | -33.5 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | -1,157.4 | -547.7 |
| Net debt | 19,302.8 | 19,554.8 |
| Sales receivables | -10.4 | -256.7 |
| Adj. net debt | 19,292.4 | 19,298.1 |
| Fair value of real estate portfolio | 47,763.9 | 44,239.9 |
| Shares in other real estate companies | 114.0 | 800.3 |
| Adj. fair value of real estate portfolio | 47,907.9 | 45,040.2 |
| LTV | 40.3% | 42.8% |
| LTV (incl. perpetual hybrid) | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 | 11.1x | 11.4x |
1 Adj. net debt quarterly average over Total EBITDA (LTM); adj. for IFRS 16 effect.
LTV & Financing
• Unwavering commitment to BBB+ rating
Valuation & NAV
Highlights Segment Results
& Portfolio
| Hembla Update Guidance & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|
| KPI / criteria | Sep. 30, 2019 |
Dec. 31, 2018 |
|
| Corporate rating (S&P) | BBB+ | BBB+ | |
| LTV | 40.3% | 42.8% | |
| Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 |
11.1x | 11.4x | |
| ICR | 4.9x | 4.7x | |
| ratio2 Fixed/hedged debt |
97% | 96% | |
| debt2 Average cost of |
1.6% | 1.8% | |
| Weighted average maturity (years)2 | 8.4 | 7.8 | |
| Unencumbered assets | 53% | 56% |
1Adj. net debt quarterly average over Total EBITDA (LTM); adj. for IFRS 16 effect. 2Excl. equity hybrid. 3incl. Bonds 022A, 022B, 022C issue date Oct. 7, 2019
9M 2019 Earnings Call
quantitative acquisition targets and instead will continue to act purely opportunistic.
1EPRA is currently reviewing its Best Practice Recommendations and is expected to replace EPRA NAV with a revised but broadly similar metric
| & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 & Regulation Debate |
|---|
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| 2018 Actuals | 2019 Guidance (Aug. 2019) |
Final 2019 Guidance (Nov. 2019; excl. Hembla) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic rent growth (eop) | 4.4% | ~4.4% | ~4.0% |
| Rental Income (€m) | 1,894 | 2,020 – 2,070 |
~2,040 |
| Recurring Sales (# of units) | 2,818 | ~2,500 | ~2,500 |
| FV step-up Recurring Sales | 35.5% | ~30% | >30% |
| Adj. EBITDA Total (€m) | 1,397 | 1,700 – 1,750 |
Upper end of range |
| Group FFO (€m) | 1,132 | 1,165 – 1,215 |
Upper end of range |
| Group FFO (€/share) | 2.18 | 2.15 – 2.24 |
Upper end of range |
| Dividend (€/share) | 1.44 | ~70% of Group FFO | 1.571 |
| Investments (€m) | 1,139 | 1,300 - 1,600 |
~1,400 |
| Adj. NAV (€/share) | 44.90 | n/a | €532 €51.5 - |
| Underlying number of shares (million) | 518.1 | 542.3 | 542.3 |
1To be proposed to the Annual General Meeting in May 2020. 2 incl. Hembla
| Initial 2020 Guidance | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
| 2019 Guidance (excl. Hembla) |
2020 Guidance (incl. Hembla) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Organic rent growth (eop) | ~4.0% | See pages 35- 38 for ~4.0% assumptions & analyses |
| Rental Income | ~2.04bn | ~2.3bn |
| Recurring Sales (# of units) | ~2,500 | ~2,500 |
| FV step-up Recurring Sales | >30% | ~30% |
| Adj. EBITDA Total (€m) | Upper end of 1,700 – 1,750 range |
1,875 – 1,925 |
| Group FFO (€m) | Upper end of 1,165 – 1,215 range |
1,275 – 1,325 |
| Dividend (€/share) | 1.571 | 70% of Group FFO per share |
| Investments (€m) | ~1,400 | 1,300 – 1,600 |
1To be proposed to the Annual General Meeting in May 2020
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legislation | The proposed |
into effect | On Oct. 22, the Berlin Senate agreed on the draft bill for a Berlin-specific rent freeze law (see page 33 for further details); parliamentary hearings are expected to take place in November and December. The bill is expected to become law in Q1 2020. rent freeze legislation also includes rent-reducing elements Once the law is enacted, reversal of all rent increases implemented since June 18, 2019, back to rent level legally agreed as of that date New lettings at same rental level as previous rent but in no case above the respective rent ceilings (Mietobergrenzen) Reduction of in-place rents that are >120% of rent ceilings This part is expected to be enforced nine months after the rent freeze legislation goes |
|||||
| Group 2020 for Vonovia |
FFO impact | The estimated impact is | ca. €6m from the reversal unrealized rent growth because of the rent freeze |
rent increases made after June 18, 2019, and | ||||
| Assessment | unconstitutional housing shortage. |
Vonovia remains fully convinced that the planned rent freeze legislation is not only but also a large step in the wrong direction. It will not serve to solve the Instead it will disincentivize much needed investments in new constructions and the modernization of Berlin's existing housing stock. Notwithstanding this ill-conceived legislation, we will, once it is enacted and for as long as it is upheld. Vonovia will complete the construction and modernization projects that are underway and carefully review any future investments into Berlin. |
homeowners and investors in Berlin to make | of course, act in accordance | ||||
| Spillover? | With ca. 10% of our portfolio located in Berlin, the impact on our performance and portfolio is clearly manageable. Unchanged from previous statements we continue to see the spillover risk into other areas outside Berlin as extremely low. |
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As the market leader, Vonovia is determined to also lead by example when it comes to stakeholder reconciliation |
1Top 7 cities, includes projects completed between 2016 and 2023 (expected), Data source: bulwiengesa, company data. 22017 data, source for market is German Tenant Association (published Oct. 3, 2019)
| Appendix | ||
|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results Valuation LTV Hembla Update Guidance Berlin & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 & Regulation |
Political & Public Appendix Debate |
| Strategy | 25-26 | |
| Portfolio | 27-29 | |
| Investments | 30-31 | |
| Bridge from Group FFO 2019E to Group FFO 2020E | 32 | |
| Berlin-specific rent freeze legislation & rent regulation terminology | 33-34 | |
| Rent growth analyses | 35-38 | |
| Acquisitions | 39-41 | |
| Bond data | 42-43 | |
| Residential market data | 44-49 | |
| Vonovia shares | 50-51 | |
| Management Remuneration | 52-54 | |
| IR contact & financial calendar | 55 | |
| Disclaimer | 56 |
9M 2019 Earnings Call
Vonovia's business model has evolved to encompass value creation across the full residential real estate life cycle of our assets
1 Historic range. 2 CAGR since 2013 fair value uplift through performance and investments (excluding yield compression).
Vonovia location
High-influx cities ("Schwarmstädte"). For more information: http://investoren.vonovia.de/websites/vonovia/English/4050/financial-reports-_-presentations.html
| Fair value1 | Residential | In-place rent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2019 | (€bn) | % of total | (€/sqm) | units | (€/sqm/month) |
| Operate | 9.3 | 20% | 1,794 | 75,209 | 6.96 |
| Invest | 27.8 | 60% | 1,805 | 248,432 | 6.62 |
| Strategic | 37.1 | 80% | 1,802 | 323,641 | 6.70 |
| Recurring Sales | 3.7 | 8% | 1,927 | 28,321 | 6.84 |
| Non-core | 0.5 | 1% | 1,299 | 4,242 | 6.32 |
| Vonovia Germany | 41.3 | 89% | 1,804 | 356,204 | 6.71 |
| Vonovia Austria | 2.6 | 6% | 1,415 | 22,764 | 4.63 |
| Vonovia Sweden | 2.3 | 5% | 1,739 | 16,647 | 9.15 |
| Vonovia Total | 46.2 | 100% | 1,773 | 395,615 | 6.69 |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition.
1 Fair value of the developed land excluding €1,849.5m, of which €471.2m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €392.5m for assets under construction, €514.4m for development, €274.1m IFRS 16 effect, and €197.4m for other.
Rental Segment
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fair value1 | In-place rent | ||||||||||||
| Regional Market | (€m) | (€/sqm) | Residential units |
Vacancy (%) |
Total (p.a., €m) |
Residential (p.a., €m) |
Residential (€/sqm/ month) |
Organic rent growth (LTM, %) |
Multiple (in-place rent) |
Purchase power index (market data)2 |
Market rent increase forecast Valuation (% p.a.) |
Average rent growth (LTM, %) from Optimize Apartment |
|
| Berlin | 7,202 | 2,601 | 42,029 | 1.5 | 226 | 214 | 6.78 | 3.8 | 31.9 | 80.4 | 1.8 | 50.0 | |
| Rhine Main Area (Frankfurt, Darmstadt, Wiesbaden) |
4,202 | 2,355 | 27,491 | 1.8 | 176 | 170 | 8.23 | 4.5 | 23.9 | 105.0 | 1.8 | 37.8 | |
| Southern Ruhr Area (Dortmund, Essen, Bochum) |
3,646 | 1,349 | 43,405 | 3.6 | 192 | 187 | 6.09 | 4.8 | 19.0 | 102.0 | 1.5 | 31.6 | |
| Rhineland (Cologne, Düsseldorf, Bonn) |
3,634 | 1,852 | 28,784 | 2.5 | 168 | 160 | 7.16 | 3.2 | 21.6 | 88.5 | 1.7 | 30.2 | |
| Dresden | 3,463 | 1,511 | 38,508 | 3.6 | 166 | 157 | 6.19 | 4.4 | 20.8 | 81.8 | 1.7 | 27.8 | |
| Hamburg | 2,584 | 2,017 | 19,816 | 1.8 | 109 | 105 | 7.11 | 4.1 | 23.7 | 98.4 | 1.6 | 39.2 | |
| Munich | 2,170 | 3,327 | 9,651 | 1.2 | 65 | 61 | 8.17 | 3.0 | 33.2 | 121.8 | 1.8 | 46.4 | |
| Kiel | 2,064 | 1,481 | 23,372 | 2.3 | 104 | 99 | 6.29 | 3.8 | 19.8 | 74.8 | 1.7 | 36.3 | |
| Stuttgart | 2,016 | 2,263 | 13,790 | 1.8 | 84 | 81 | 7.93 | 2.8 | 23.9 | 104.5 | 1.8 | 36.0 | |
| Hanover | 1,791 | 1,709 | 16,297 | 3.1 | 83 | 79 | 6.64 | 4.7 | 21.7 | 90.1 | 1.7 | 37.3 | |
| Northern Ruhr Area (Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen) |
1,596 | 985 | 25,958 | 3.7 | 110 | 106 | 5.74 | 3.3 | 14.5 | 81.7 | 1.2 | 25.1 | |
| Bremen | 1,150 | 1,555 | 11,856 | 3.7 | 51 | 48 | 5.81 | 4.6 | 22.8 | 84.2 | 1.8 | 29.2 | |
| Leipzig | 914 | 1,470 | 9,188 | 4.1 | 44 | 41 | 6.05 | 2.9 | 21.0 | 74.5 | 1.7 | 24.2 | |
| Westphalia (Münster, Osnabrück) | 879 | 1,409 | 9,494 | 3.4 | 45 | 43 | 6.09 | 4.0 | 19.7 | 92.4 | 1.5 | 38.6 | |
| Freiburg | 636 | 2,281 | 4,039 | 1.9 | 25 | 24 | 7.40 | 3.1 | 25.6 | 85.4 | 1.7 | 40.6 | |
| Other Strategic Locations | 2,690 | 1,546 | 26,783 | 3.6 | 137 | 132 | 6.69 | 4.0 | 19.7 | - | 1.5 | 35.1 | |
| Total Strategic Locations Germany | 40,635 | 1,814 | 350,461 | 2.8 | 1,783 | 1,708 | 6.71 | 3.9 | 22.8 | - | 1.7 | 34.9 | |
| Non-Strategic Locations | 679 | 1,358 | 5,743 | 6.9 | 35 | 30 | 6.40 | 0.9 | 19.4 | - | 1.6 | 20.0 | |
| Germany total | 41,314 | 1,804 | 356,204 | 2.8 | 1,818 | 1,738 | 6.71 | 3.9 | 22.7 | 100.0 | 1.7 | 34.9 | |
| Austria | 2,614 | 1,415 | 22,764 | 5.3 | 108 | 89 | 4.63 | 3.6 | 24.3 | - | 1.2 | - | |
| Sweden | 2,261 | 1,739 | 16,647 | 1.4 | 141 | 129 | 9.15 | 5.2 | 16.0 | - | 2.0 | - | |
| Total Vonovia | 46,188 | 1,773 | 395,615 | 2.9 | 2,067 | 1,957 | 6.69 | 4.0 | 22.3 | - | 1.7 | n/a |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition.
1 Fair value of the developed land excluding €1,849.5m, of which €471.2m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €392.5m for assets under construction, €514.4m for development, €274.1m IFRS 16 effect, and €197.4m for other. 2 Source: GfK (2018). Data refers to the specific cities indicated in the tables, weighted by the number of households where applicable.
| Investment Track Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
Reversal of rent increases made after June 18, 2019, and unrealized rent growth as a result of the Berlinspecific rent freeze B
Additional interest for Hembla, higher consolidation amount from non-cash EBITDA growth
C
| Berlin-specific Rent Freeze Legislation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
For the full draft bill seehttps://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de/wohnen/wohnraum/mietendeckel/download/Gesetzentwurf-Neuregelung-Mietenbegrenzung-MietenWoGBln.pdf
| Segment Results Valuation LTV Hembla Update Guidance Berlin Political & Public Highlights & Portfolio & NAV & Financing & Acq. Criteria 2019 & 2020 & Regulation Debate |
Appendix |
|---|---|
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- |
While German rental regulation has a variety of special terms there are a few that are particularly relevant to understand rental regulation. While there are different translations used by different people, the following is a short overview of the key terms and their English equivalent used by Vonovia.
| German term | English term | Comment | |
|---|---|---|---|
| National (encoded |
Mietspiegel | Rent index or Mietspiegel |
Based on federal legislation and implemented by individual municipalities. Updates are usually made every two years and based on market rent growth data of the last four years. |
| in German Civil Code, "BGB") |
Mietpreisbremse | Rent cap | Unless comprehensive modernizations are made in the apartment, the rent for an incoming tenant must not be more than 10% above the local comparable rent. |
| Term used to refer to the planned Berlin-specific rental regulation. It has (i) a rent freeze element based on which rents |
| Berlin specific (draft law) |
Mietendeckel | Rent freeze | cannot grow (subject to certain provisions included in the legislation) and (ii) a rent reduction element based on which in place rents need to be reduced under certain circumstances. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mietenobergrenze | Rent ceiling | New maximum rental levels included in the Berlin draft bill that are essentially based on 2013 Mietspiegel levels plus wage inflation. They form the basis for various provisions of the draft bill. |
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ------------ | -------------------------------- | -------------------- | -------------------- | ---------------------------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------------ | ------------------------------ | ---------- |
Reversal of post June 18, 2019, rent increases in Berlin in anticipation that rent freeze becomes law in Q1 2020 and in-place rents will need to be rolled back to June 18, 2019 levels. A
Continuously declining tenant turnover to now below 10%
(i) Political influence on Mietspiegel values plus Mietpreisbremse translate into lower rent growth opportunities from Mietspiegel upgrades; (ii) execution of full investment-driven rent growth is taking longer due to delay in building permits, shortage of construction labor and increasingly comprehensive investment projects C
This analysis does not include the impact from the element in the Berlin-specific rent freeze regulation that deals with one-off rent reductions: (i) Relettings can only be made at the level of the previous rent and in no case above the respective rent ceiling (Mietobergrenzen); and (ii) In-place rents of >120% rent ceiling value are to be reduced. Our estimate for the full impact would be ca. 50 bps. As this part of the legislation is expected to be enacted nine months after implementation and reductions would only come by order of the administration after reviewing a tenant's application we do not expect a large impact in 2020. Furthermore, this part of the rent freeze is widely considered the most unconstitutional element of the Berlin rent freeze legislation.
9M 2019 Earnings Call
9M 2019 Earnings Call
| European Activities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First (minor) exposure to non • German resi portfolio via conwert tender offer |
Rolf Buch is appointed to the • Board of D. Carnegie (today: Hembla); he resigned in 2018 when Vonovia made an offer for Victoria Park • Signing of MoU with CDC Habitat (formerly SNI) • Tender offer for Buwog |
Tender offer for Victoria Park (14k • units) • Acquisition of 2,340 flats by VP for ca. €450m (closed early Q2 2019) |
Acquisition of 10% stake in a • 4,000 unit portfolio sold by French SNCF • Squeezed out Buwog minorities for ca. €334m • Exercised call options for 12.4% of VP, delisted shares and initiated squeeze-out proceedings • Acquisition of ca. 61% of shares and 69% of voting rights in Hembla from Blackstone • Tender offer for remaining shares in Hembla |
| Austria (run a scalable business) |
Sweden (main focus) |
France (biggest long-term potential) |
The Netherlands (open for opportunities) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of total portfolio |
~5%1 | ~9%1 | Not meaningful | 0% |
| Next steps | • Gradual asset rotation via recurring sales of mature assets and development of new assets in a similar magnitude • Run scalable operating business • Follow accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis |
• Pursue accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis • Add Vonovia experience and skill set and use Victoria Park as a platform to further grow in the Swedish residential market • Demonstrate success and sustainability of Vonovia business model to show it also works outside of Germany |
• Utilize 10% stake in SNCF portfolio to gain more profound understanding of the market • Safeguard pole position and first-mover advantage for potential opening of social housing to commercial ownership • Continue to actively engage with relevant French players to seek opportunities for taking the next steps |
• Continue market research • Be prepared for accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis |
1 Pro forma incl. Hembla
1Acquisitions are shown for all categories in the year the acquisition process started.
| Acquisition Track Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
| Fair Value (€/sqm) | 1 | In-place rent (€/sqm) | 1 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Deal | Residential units # |
TOP Locations | @ Acquisition | Sep 30, 2019 |
∆ | @ Acquisition | Sep 30, 2019 |
∆ |
| 2014 | DEWAG | 11,300 | Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt/Main |
1,344 | 2,356 | 75% | 6.76 | 8.05 | 19% |
| VITUS | 20,500 Bremen, Kiel 807 Dresden, Berlin, 144,600 889 Hamburg 4,100 Berlin, Dresden 1,044 Stuttgart, Karlsruhe, 19,400 1,380 Mannheim, Ulm 2,400 Munich, Mannheim 1,501 Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam, 23,400 1,353 Wien thereof Germany 21,200 Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam 1,218 thereof Austria 2,200 Vienna 1,986 1,000 Hanover 1,617 Berlin, Lübeck, Vienna, 48,300 1,244 Villach thereof Germany 27,000 Berlin, Lübeck, Kiel 1,330 |
1,486 | 84% | 5.06 | 5.97 | 18% | |||
| GAGFAH | 1,745 | 96% | 5.40 | 6.50 | 20% | ||||
| 2015 | FRANCONIA | 2,025 | 94% | 5.82 | 6.85 | 18% | |||
| SÜDEWO | 2,071 | 50% | 6.83 | 7.60 | 11% | ||||
| 2016 | GRAINGER | 2,331 | 55% | 7.09 | 8.10 | 14% | |||
| CONWERT (Germany & Austria) |
1,970 | 46% | 5.88 | 6.51 | 11% | ||||
| 1,869 | 53% | 5.86 | 6.47 | 10% | |||||
| 2017 | 2,486 | 25% | 6.11 | 6.83 | 12% | ||||
| PROIMMO | 1,801 | 11% | 6.63 | 6.93 | 4% | ||||
| BUWOG (Germany & Austria) |
1,447 | 16% | 5.10 | 5.38 | 5% | ||||
| 1,646 | 24% | 5.96 | 6.37 | 7% | |||||
| 2018 | thereof Austria | 21,300 | Vienna, Villach, Graz | 1,157 | 1,259 | 9% | 4.21 | 4.43 | 5% |
| VICTORIA PARK (Sweden) |
14,000 | Stockholm, Malmö, Gothenburg |
15,286 | 18,598 | 22% | 92.25 | 97.89 | 6% | |
| Total | 289,000 |
1Germany & Austria in €, Sweden in SEK Note: Excluding smaller tactical acquisitions.
| Covenants and KPIs (Sep 30, 2019) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
| Bond KPIs | Covenant | Level | Sep 30, 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTV | |||
| Total Debt / Total Assets | <60% | 40% | |
| Secured LTV | |||
| Secured Debt / Total Assets |
<45% | 13% | |
| ICR | >1.80x | 4.9x | |
| Last 12M EBITDA / Last 12M Interest Expense |
|||
| Unencumbered Assets |
>125% | 203% | |
| Unencumbered Assets / Unsecured Debt |
| Rating KPIs | Covenant | Level (BBB+) |
|---|---|---|
| Debt to Capital Total Debt / Total Equity + Total Debt |
<60% | |
| ICR | ||
| Last 12M EBITDA / Last 12M Interest Expense |
>1.80x |
| Rating agency | Rating | Outlook | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Tenor & Coupon | ISIN | Amount | Issue price | Coupon | Final Maturity Date | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bond 004 (USD-Bond) | 10 years 5.000% | US25155FAB22 | USD 250m | 98.993% | 4.580%(1) | 02 Oct 2023 | BBB+ |
| Bond 005 (EMTN) | 8 years 3.625% | DE000A1HRVD5 | € 500m | 99.843% | 3.625% | 08 Oct 2021 | BBB+ |
| Bond 007 (EMTN) | 8 years 2.125% | DE000A1ZLUN1 | € 500m | 99.412% | 2.125% | 09 July 2022 | BBB+ |
| Bond 008 (Hybrid) | perpetual 4% | XS1117300837 | € 1,000m | 100.000% | 4.000% | perpetual | BBB |
| Bond 009A (EMTN) | 5 years 0.875% | DE000A1ZY971 | (2) € 301m |
99.263% | 0.875% | 30 Mar 2020 | BBB+ |
| Bond 009B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A1ZY989 | € 500m | 98.455% | 1.5000% | 31 Mar 2025 | BBB+ |
| Bond 010B (EMTN) | 5 years 1.625% | DE000A18V138 | (2) € 752m |
99.852% | 1.625% | 15 Dec 2020 | BBB+ |
| Bond 010C (EMTN) | 8 years 2.250% | DE000A18V146 | € 1,000m | 99.085% | 2.2500% | 15 Dec 2023 | BBB+ |
| Bond 011A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.875% | DE000A182VS4 | € 500m | 99.530% | 0.875% | 10 Jun 2022 | BBB+ |
| Bond 011B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A182VT2 | € 500m | 99.165% | 1.5000% | 10 Jun 2026 | BBB+ |
| Bond 013 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.250% | DE000A189ZX0 | € 1,000m | 99.037% | 1.250% | 06 Dec 2024 | BBB+ |
| Bond 014A (EMTN) | 5 years 0.750% | DE000A19B8D4 | € 500m | 99.863% | 0.750% | 25 Jan 2022 | BBB+ |
| Bond 014B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.750% | DE000A19B8E2 | € 500m | 99.266% | 1.750% | 25 Jan 2027 | BBB+ |
| Bond 015 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.125% | DE000A19NS93 | € 500m | 99.386% | 1.125% | 08 Sep 2025 | BBB+ |
| Bond 016 (EMTN) | 2 years 3M EURIBOR+0.350% | DE000A19SE11 | € 500m | 100.448% | 3M EURIBOR+0.350% | 20 Nov 2019 | BBB+ |
| Bond 017A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.750% | DE000A19UR61 | € 500m | 99.330% | 0.750% | 15 Jan 2024 | BBB+ |
| Bond 017B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A19UR79 | € 500m | 99.439% | 1.500% | 14 Jan 2028 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018A (EMTN) | 4.75 years 3M EURIBOR+0.450% |
DE000A19X793 | € 600m | 100.000% | 0.793% hedged | 22 Dec 2022 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018B (EMTN) | 8 years 1.500% | DE000A19X8A4 | € 500m | 99.188% | 1.500% | 22 Mar 2026 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018C (EMTN) | 12 years 2.125% | DE000A19X8B2 | € 500m | 98.967% | 2.125% | 22 Mar 2030 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018D (EMTN) | 20 years 2.750% | DE000A19X8C0 | € 500m | 97.896% | 2.750% | 22 Mar 2038 | BBB+ |
| Bond 019 (EMTN) | 5 years 0.875% | DE000A192ZH7 | € 500m | 99.437% | 0.875% | 03 Jul 2023 | BBB+ |
| Bond 020 (EMTN) | 6.5 years 1.800% | DE000A2RWZZ6 | € 500m | 99.836% | 1.800% | 29 Jun 2025 | BBB+ |
| Bond 021A (EMTN) | 10 years 0.500% | DE000A2R7JD3 | € 500m | 98.965% | 0.500% | 14 Sep 2029 | BBB+ |
| Bond 021B (EMTN) | 15 years 1.125% | DE000A2R7JE1 | € 500m | 99.822% | 1.125% | 14 Sep 2034 | BBB+ |
| Bond 022A (EMTN) | 3.5 years 0.125% | DE000A2R8NC5 | €500m | 99.882% | 0.125% | 06 Apr 2023 | BBB+ |
| Bond 022B (EMTN) | 8 years 0.625% | DE000A2R8ND3 | € 500m | 98.941% | 0.625% | 07 Oct 2027 | BBB+ |
| Bond 022C (EMTN) | 20 years 1.625% | DE000A2R8NE1 | € 500m | 98.105% | 1.625% | 07 Oct 2039 | BBB+ |
(1) EUR-equivalent Coupon
(2) Nominal amount outstanding after Liability Management in Sep 2019
In regulated markets like Germany, rent growth is on a sustainable upward trajectory and largely independent from
GDP developments
In unregulated markets like the USA, rents go up and down broadly in line with the GDP development
Sources: Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners), REIS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD. Note: Due to lack of q-o-q US rent growth data, the annual rent growth for a year is assumed to also be the q-o-q rent growth of that year.
9M 2019 Earnings Call
1 Yearly asset yields vs. rolling 200d average of 10y interest rates
Sources: Thomson Reuters, bulwiengesa
Average annual residential completions of the last five years fall short of estimated required volumes:
Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, Statistics Sweden, Le service de la donnée et des études statistiques (SDES), Abbé Pierre Foundation
Note: VNA 2010 – 2014 refers to Deutsche Annington Portfolio at the time; construction costs excluding land. The land value refers to the share of total fair value allocated to land. Allocation between building and land in Sweden assumed to be similar to Germany.
9M 2019 Earnings Call
Population living in urban areas (%)
1 Share of disposable household income spent on housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
Sources: Eurostat, United Nations
Hembla Update
Guidance
Berlin
0.6
Churches and other
Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). 2035(E) household numbers are based on trend scenario of the German Federal Statistics Office.
2008 2018
15.8 17.3 19.0
2035E
Highlights Segment Results
Valuation
Residential Market Fundamentals (Germany)
Household Sizes and Ownership Structure
LTV
According to German law the lowest threshold for voting rights notifications is at 3%
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | NOSH (million) |
Comment | ||||||
| December 31, 2016 | 466.0 | |||||||
| March 31, 2017 |
468.8 | conwert acquisition | ||||||
| June 30, 2017 | 476.5 | Scrip dividend | ||||||
| September 30, 2017 | 485.1 | Gagfah | cross-border merger | |||||
| December 31, 2017 | 485.1 | |||||||
| March 31, 2018 | 485.1 | |||||||
| June 30, 2018 |
518.1 | €1bn ABB in 05/2018; | scrip dividend | |||||
| September 30, 2018 | 518.1 | |||||||
| December 31, 2018 | 518.1 | |||||||
| March 31, 2019 | 518.1 | |||||||
| June 30, 2019 |
542.3 | €744m ABB in 05/2019; scrip dividend | ||||||
| September 30, 2019 | 542.3 |
The number of outstanding shares is always available at https://investoren.vonovia.de/websites/vonovia/English/2010/basic-information.html
| Segment Results | |
|---|---|
| Highlights | & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV
LTV & Financing
Guidance 2019 & 2020 Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria
& Regulation Appendix Political & Public Debate
Payout: Cash
Annually granted remuneration component in the form of virtual shares
Share Holding Provision
100% of annual fixed remuneration (excl. pension) (accumulation on a pro rata basis during first 4 years)
Bonus cap at predetermined amount
Group FFO is the key figure for managing the sustained operational earnings power of our business.
LTIP aims to ensure that remuneration structure focuses on sustainable corporate development.
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contact | Financial Calendar 2019 | |||||||
| +49 234 314 1629 Stefan Heinz +49 234 314 2384 [email protected] Oliver Larmann |
Rene Hoffmann (Head of IR) Primary contact for Sell side, Buy side [email protected] Primary contact for Sell side, Buy side Primary contact for private investors, AGM |
Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov 8 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 21 Nov 26 Nov 28 |
Q3-Roadshow Paris (Oddo) Q3-Roadshow Amsterdam (Kempen) Q3-Roadshow Frankfurt (Dt. Bank) Q3-Roadshow London (Goldman Sachs) UBS European Conference 2019 in London (UBS)1 Q3-Roadshow in Zurich (UBS) Roadshow in London (Goldman Sachs) Roadshow Rhineland (HSBC) |
1 | ||||
| +49 234 314 1609 General inquiries |
[email protected] [email protected] |
Dec 3 Dec 12 & 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 |
Global Real Estate CEO/CFO Conference 2019 in London (UBS) HSBC Real Estate Conference 2019 in Cape Town (HSBC) German Investment Seminar in New York City (Commerzank) Roadshow USA |
1 | ||||
| App & Website | Jan 20 Jan 30 Feb 11 & 12 Mar 5 May 5 May 13 Aug 5 Nov 4 |
German Corporate Conference in Frankfurt (Kepler Cheuvreux) German Equity Forum in London (Bankhaus Roadshow in Kopenhagen Full Year Results 2019 Interim results 3M 2020 Annual General Meeting Interim results H1 2020 Interim results 9M 2020 |
Lampe) 1 & Helsinki (Hauck & Aufhäuser) |
1 | ||||
The most up-to-date financial calendar is always available online.
| Disclaimer | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
This presentation has been specifically prepared by Vonovia SE and/or its affiliates (together, "Vonovia") for internal use. Consequently, it may not be sufficient or appropriate for the purpose for which a third party might use it.
This presentation has been provided for information purposes only and is being circulated on a confidential basis. This presentation shall be used only in accordance with applicable law, e.g. regarding national and international insider dealing rules, and must not be distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part, nor may its contents be disclosed by the recipient to any other person. Receipt of this presentation constitutes an express agreement to be bound by such confidentiality and the other terms set out herein.
This presentation includes statements, estimates, opinions and projections with respect to anticipated future performance of Vonovia ("forward-looking statements") which reflect various assumptions concerning anticipated results taken from Vonovia's current business plan or from public sources which have not been independently verified or assessed by Vonovia and which may or may not prove to be correct. Any forward-looking statements reflect current expectations based on the current business plan and various other assumptions and involve significant risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. Any forward-looking statements only speak as at the date the presentation is provided to the recipient. It is up to the recipient of this presentation to make its own assessment of the validity of any forward-looking statements and assumptions and no liability is accepted by Vonovia in respect of the achievement of such forward-looking statements and assumptions.
Vonovia accepts no liability whatsoever to the extent permitted by applicable law for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or penalty arising from any use of this presentation, its contents or preparation or otherwise in connection with it.
No representation or warranty (whether express or implied) is given in respect of any information in this presentation or that this presentation is suitable for the recipient's purposes. The delivery of this presentation does not imply that the information herein is correct as at any time subsequent to the date hereof.
Vonovia has no obligation whatsoever to update or revise any of the information, forward-looking statements or the conclusions contained herein or to reflect new events or circumstances or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent subsequent to the date hereof.
This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
This presentation is neither an advertisement nor a prospectus and is made available on the express understanding that it does not contain all information that may be required to evaluate, and will not be used by the attendees/recipients in connection with, the purchase of or investment in any securities of the Company. This presentation is selective in nature and does not purport to contain all information that may be required to evaluate the Company and/or its securities. No reliance may or should be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness.
This presentation is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.
Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it may be taken, transmitted or distributed directly or indirectly into or within the United States, its territories or possessions. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The securities of the Company have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Consequently, the securities of the Company may not be offered, sold, resold, transferred, delivered or distributed, directly or indirectly, into or within in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in compliance with any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States unless registered under the Securities Act.
Tables and diagrams may include rounding effects.
| For Your Notes | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
| For Your Notes | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results & Portfolio |
Valuation & NAV |
LTV & Financing |
Hembla Update & Acq. Criteria |
Guidance 2019 & 2020 |
Berlin & Regulation |
Political & Public Debate |
Appendix |
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