Investor Presentation • Nov 29, 2019
Investor Presentation
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Olaf Weber, Head of Finance and Treasury Thorsten Arsan, Head of Corporate Finance
11 Incl. 27k apartments in other strategic locations plus 6k in non-strategic locations that are not shown on the map. Pro forma incl. Hembla
Sources: United Nations, Prognos AG
Demographic change
assistance for longer. Ca. 3 million additional apartments for elderly people will be needed by 2030.
2015 2050
Germany
65 or older younger than 65
2015 2050 Europe
Fixed Income Investor Presentation Asia Roadshow December 2019
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
1 German portfolio. 2 LTV = Net debt over fair market value of real estate portfolio. 32013-2018 FFO is "FFO1" and 2019 FFO is "Group FFO." 4Dividend yield plus l-f-l organic asset value growth from operating performance and investments (excluding yield compression).
| Company Overview | Business Update | Additional Information | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KPI / criteria | Sep. 30, 2019 |
Dec. 31, 2018 |
|
| Corporate rating (S&P) | BBB+ | BBB+ | |
| LTV | 40.3% | 42.8% | |
| debt/EBITDA multiple1 Net |
11.1x | 11.4x | |
| ICR | 4.9x | 4.7x | |
| Fixed/hedged debt ratio2 |
97% | 96% | |
| preserve best possible optionality | debt2 Average cost of |
1.6% | 1.8% |
| Weighted average maturity (years)2 | 8.4 | 7.8 | |
| Unencumbered assets | 53% | 56% |
1Adj. net debt quarterly average over Total EBITDA (LTM); adj. for IFRS 16 effect. 2Excl. equity hybrid. 3incl. Bonds 022A, 022B, 022C issue date Oct. 7, 2019
| Company Overview | Business Update | Additional Information | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sustainable cash flow growth |
3 sources of sustainable value | growth | ||||||
| Trajectory | ||||||||
| Rental income |
Growing. | Construction | Development | |||||
| - | Maintenance expenses |
Broadly stable. Scalable relative to portfolio size and broadly stable |
1 | cost below (DCF-based) fair market |
costs Fair market |
+15-20%3 | ||
| - | Operating expenses |
Broadly stable. Overhead scalable, local cost variable with portfolio size |
value | value | ||||
| = | EBITDA Rental | Growing. | ||||||
| + | EBITDA Value add |
Growing. Further roll out of proven businesses and implementation of new initiatives. |
Fair market | |||||
| + | EBITDA Development |
Stable/slightly growing. Increasing completion volume. |
C a |
V a |
Operating | value | ||
| + | EBITDA Recurring Sales |
Broadly stable. Stable volume of ca. 2,000 apartments p.a.; EBITDA depends on sales mix and locations. |
s h g ro |
lu e g ro |
2 | performance and investments |
+4.4%4 | |
| = | Total EBITDA | Growing. Yardstick for cash generation and value creation performance. |
w th |
w th |
lead to value appreciation of the asset base |
|||
| - | Interest expenses |
Robust top-line growth combined with staggered and smooth maturity profile largely buffers potentially rising interest cost. |
Fair market value |
|||||
| - | Current income taxes |
Comparatively low cash taxes as deferred tax loss carryforwards can be used to mitigate tax burden. |
||||||
| - | Consolidation effects |
Elimination of intragroup profits and non cash effects. |
Retail sales | Fair market | ||||
| = | Adj. EPS ("Group FFO") |
Growing. | 3 | price above (DCF-based) fair market |
value Sales |
+20-30%3 | ||
| 70% 30% Other2 Dividend1 |
value | proceeds |
1 Historic acceptance level of scrip dividend has been between ca. 40% and 50%, so the actual cash out for dividends is usually substantially less than 70% of Group FFO. 2 Mainly for one-offs, capitalized maintenance and equity portion of investment program. 3Historic range. 4CAGR since 2013 fair value uplift through performance and investments (excluding yield compression).
Fixed Income Investor Presentation Asia Roadshow December 2019
Providing a place where people feel at home while honoring our commitments in terms of environmental, social and governance-related standards and expectations vis-à-vis all stakeholders is our key responsibility.
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
Attractive market fundamentals supported by long-term megatrends
Clearly defined strategy successfully and consistently executed since IPO
Resilient business model with stakeholder returns in the form of sustainable cash flow growth and organic asset value appreciation
Strong track record of acquisitions, integrations and efficiency
Uniquely positioned in Germany with ability and ambition to expand into selected European metropolitan areas
Agenda
| Company Overview | Business Update | Additional Information | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Performance | Y-o-y increase across all four segments | Adj. EBITDA Total €1,331.1m (+16.7%) Group FFO €932.8m (+10.7%) and €1.72 per share (+5.5%; eop |
shares) |
| NAV & Valuation |
Adj. NAV per share €48.92 (+9.0% since YE 2018) Est. H2 2019 total fair value growth of €2.1bn – €2.8bn (4.4% - YE2019E Adj. NAV per share estimated to come out between €51.5 and €53 |
5.9%) expected | |
| Capital Structure |
LTV 40.3% (-250bps since YE 2018) Pro forma year-end LTV Net debt/EBITDA multiple 11.1x |
upper end but still well within our target range | incl. Hembla acquisition, financing and H2 valuation estimated to be toward the |
| Guidance 2019 (final) 2020 (initial) |
Final guidance 2019: | Total EBITDA and Group FFO at the upper end of the range leading to a dividend p.s. of €1.57 to be proposed to the AGM in May 2020 Initial guidance 2020: Total EBITDA of €1,875m – |
€1,925m and Group FFO of €1,275m – €1,325m |
| Regulation & political debate |
Berlin remains extremely low | Berlin-specific rent freeze expected to become law in Q1 2020. 2020E impact on Group FFO: ~€6m Discussions about regulation expected to continue but risk of rent freeze or similar regulation outside Well-balanced stakeholder debate more important than ever and Vonovia is leading by example |
| Company Overvie | ||
|---|---|---|
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
1 Consolidation in 9M 2019 (9M 2018) comprised intragroup profits of €34.3m (€26.5m), the valuation result of new construction/development to hold of €33.1m (€10.2m), and IFRS 16 effects of €22.2m (€0.0m).
Reversal of rent increases made after June 18, 2019, and unrealized rent growth as a result of the Berlinspecific rent freeze B
Additional interest for Hembla, higher consolidation amount from non-cash EBITDA growth
C
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
| Residential Market Fundamentals (Germany) | 21-27 |
|---|---|
| Political and Public Debate about Housing (Germany) | 28-29 |
| Portfolio | 30-31 |
| Investment Program | 32 |
| Rent Growth Analysis | 33-34 |
| Acquisitions | 35-38 |
| LTV and Covenants | 39-40 |
| Disclaimer | 41 |
Sources: Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners), REIS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD. Note: Due to lack of q-o-q US rent growth data, the annual rent growth for a year is assumed to also be the q-o-q rent growth of that year.
Completions Substantially below Required Volumes
Germany ('000 units)
Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, Statistics Sweden, Le service de la donnée et des études statistiques (SDES), Abbé Pierre Foundation
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
1 Share of disposable household income spent on housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
Sources: Eurostat, United Nations
15.0
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
Amateur landlords
Professional, not listed
Listed property companies
Government owned
Churches and other
Cooperatives
2.3
2.3
2.1
0.9
0.6
Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). 2035(E) household numbers are based on trend scenario of the German Federal Statistics Office.
Note: VNA 2010 – 2014 refers to Deutsche Annington Portfolio at the time; construction costs excluding land. The land value refers to the share of total fair value allocated to land. Allocation between building and land in Sweden assumed to be similar to Germany.
Fixed Income Investor Presentation Asia Roadshow December 2019
While German rental regulation has a variety of special terms there are a few that are particularly relevant to understand rental regulation. While there are different translations used by different people, the following is a short overview of the key terms and their English equivalent used by Vonovia.
| German term | English term | Comment | |
|---|---|---|---|
| National (encoded |
Mietspiegel | Rent index or Mietspiegel |
Based on federal legislation and implemented by individual municipalities. Updates are usually made every two years and based on market rent growth data of the last four years. |
| in German Civil Code, "BGB") |
Mietpreisbremse | Rent cap | Unless comprehensive modernizations are made in the apartment, the rent for an incoming tenant must not be more than 10% above the local comparable rent. |
| Term used to refer to the planned Berlin-specific rental regulation. It has (i) a rent freeze element based on which rents |
| Berlin specific (draft law) |
Mietendeckel | Rent freeze | cannot grow (subject to certain provisions included in the legislation) and (ii) a rent reduction element based on which in place rents need to be reduced under certain circumstances. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mietenobergrenze | Rent ceiling | New maximum rental levels included in the Berlin draft bill that are essentially based on 2013 Mietspiegel levels plus wage inflation. They form the basis for various provisions of the draft bill. |
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
| Company Overview | Business Update | Additional Information |
|---|---|---|
| Legislation | On Oct. 22, the Berlin Senate agreed on the draft bill for a Berlin-specific rent freeze law; parliamentary hearings are expected to take place in November and December. The bill is expected to become law in Q1 2020. The proposed rent freeze legislation also includes rent-reducing elements Once the law is enacted, reversal of all rent increases implemented since June 18, 2019, back to rent level legally agreed as of that date New lettings at same rental level as previous rent but in no case above the respective rent ceilings (Mietobergrenzen) Reduction of in-place rents that are >120% of rent ceilings This part is expected to be enforced nine months after the rent freeze legislation goes into effect |
|
| Group FFO impact 2020 for Vonovia |
The estimated impact is ca. €6m from the reversal unrealized rent growth because of the rent freeze |
rent increases made after June 18, 2019, and |
| Assessment | Vonovia remains fully convinced that the planned rent freeze legislation is not only unconstitutional housing shortage. Instead it will disincentivize much needed investments in new constructions and the modernization of Berlin's existing housing stock. Notwithstanding this ill-conceived legislation, we will, once it is enacted and for as long as it is upheld. Vonovia will complete the construction and modernization projects that are underway and carefully review any future investments into Berlin. |
but also a large step in the wrong direction. It will not serve to solve the homeowners and investors in Berlin to make of course, act in accordance |
| Spillover? | With ca. 10% of our portfolio located in Berlin, the impact on our performance and portfolio is clearly manageable. Unchanged from previous statements we continue to see the spillover risk into other areas outside Berlin as extremely low. |
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
"We welcome this project because it creates new smaller apartments for students and senior citizens and larger apartments for families in a very popular location." Dorothee Dubrau, Director for Housing and Urban Development in Leipzig. Source: Bild (German daily)
"Let's check out how subsidies are being put to use. Especially when you not only think of a single building but of the whole neighborhood. This is how Essen's run-down northern neighborhood has been turned into the Elting Viertel. Great!" Jan Heinisch, CDU and Deputy Minister of Construction and Urban Development in NRW. Source: Facebook
"More affordable housing in NRW, right where people need it. Vonovia is adding a floor in Essen using modular timber construction. Our NRW building code provides the legal framework. Thanks to the modular approach the construction period for the new apartments is only a few weeks." Stephen Paul, Liberal Party FDP and Member of the NRW State Parliament. Source: Facebook
Q: "Do you see private owners […] as a partner or an enemy?"
A: "Actually, in their role as landlords they are natural partners, and we have a pretty good working relation with Vonovia. However, when a company […] does not even accept the Mietspiegel we have a massive conflict." Interview with Berlin's Senator for Housing and Urban Development, Katrin Lompscher.
Source: Tagesspiegel (Berlin daily) on Sep. 30, 2019
1Top 7 cities, includes projects completed between 2016 and 2023 (expected), Data source: bulwiengesa, company data. 22017 data, source for market is German Tenant Association (published Oct. 3, 2019)
Substantial Reduction of Portfolio Locations
High-influx cities ("Schwarmstädte"). For more information: http://investoren.vonovia.de/websites/vonovia/English/4050/financial-reports-_-presentations.html
| Fair value1 | Residential | In-place rent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2019 | (€bn) | % of total | (€/sqm) | units | (€/sqm/month) |
| Operate | 9.3 | 20% | 1,794 | 75,209 | 6.96 |
| Invest | 27.8 | 60% | 1,805 | 248,432 | 6.62 |
| Strategic | 37.1 | 80% | 1,802 | 323,641 | 6.70 |
| Recurring Sales | 3.7 | 8% | 1,927 | 28,321 | 6.84 |
| Non-core | 0.5 | 1% | 1,299 | 4,242 | 6.32 |
| Vonovia Germany | 41.3 | 89% | 1,804 | 356,204 | 6.71 |
| Vonovia Austria | 2.6 | 6% | 1,415 | 22,764 | 4.63 |
| Vonovia Sweden | 2.3 | 5% | 1,739 | 16,647 | 9.15 |
| Vonovia Total | 46.2 | 100% | 1,773 | 395,615 | 6.69 |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition.
1 Fair value of the developed land excluding €1,849.5m, of which €471.2m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €392.5m for assets under construction, €514.4m for development, €274.1m IFRS 16 effect, and €197.4m for other.
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
Acquisitions – Opportunistic but Disciplined
Acquisitions are shown for all categories in the year the acquisition process started.
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
| Fair Value (€/sqm) | 1 | In-place rent (€/sqm) | 1 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Deal | Residential units # |
TOP Locations | @ Acquisition | Sep 30, 2019 |
∆ | @ Acquisition | Sep 30, 2019 |
∆ |
| 2014 | DEWAG | 11,300 | Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt/Main |
1,344 | 2,356 | 75% | 6.76 | 8.05 | 19% |
| VITUS | 20,500 | Bremen, Kiel | 807 | 1,486 | 84% | 5.06 | 5.97 | 18% | |
| GAGFAH | 144,600 | Dresden, Berlin, Hamburg |
889 | 1,745 | 96% | 5.40 | 6.50 | 20% | |
| 2015 | FRANCONIA | 4,100 | Berlin, Dresden | 1,044 | 2,025 | 94% | 5.82 | 6.85 | 18% |
| SÜDEWO | 19,400 | Stuttgart, Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Ulm |
1,380 | 2,071 | 50% | 6.83 | 7.60 | 11% | |
| 2016 | GRAINGER | 2,400 | Munich, Mannheim | 1,501 | 2,331 | 55% | 7.09 | 8.10 | 14% |
| CONWERT (Germany & Austria) |
23,400 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam, Wien |
1,353 | 1,970 | 46% | 5.88 | 6.51 | 11% | |
| thereof Germany | 21,200 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam | 1,218 | 1,869 | 53% | 5.86 | 6.47 | 10% | |
| 2017 | thereof Austria | 2,200 | Vienna | 1,986 | 2,486 | 25% | 6.11 | 6.83 | 12% |
| PROIMMO | 1,000 | Hanover | 1,617 | 1,801 | 11% | 6.63 | 6.93 | 4% | |
| BUWOG (Germany & Austria) |
48,300 | Berlin, Lübeck, Vienna, Villach |
1,244 | 1,447 | 16% | 5.10 | 5.38 | 5% | |
| thereof Germany | 27,000 | Berlin, Lübeck, Kiel | 1,330 | 1,646 | 24% | 5.96 | 6.37 | 7% | |
| 2018 | thereof Austria | 21,300 | Vienna, Villach, Graz | 1,157 | 1,259 | 9% | 4.21 | 4.43 | 5% |
| VICTORIA PARK (Sweden) |
14,000 | Stockholm, Malmö, Gothenburg |
15,286 | 18,598 | 22% | 92.25 | 97.89 | 6% | |
| Total | 289,000 |
1Germany & Austria in €, Sweden in SEK Note: Excluding smaller tactical acquisitions.
Update Hembla Acquisition
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| • First (minor) exposure to non German resi portfolio via conwert tender offer |
• Rolf Buch is appointed to the Board of D. Carnegie (today: Hembla); he resigned in 2018 when Vonovia made an offer for Victoria Park Signing of MoU with CDC Habitat • (formerly SNI) Tender offer for Buwog • |
• Tender offer for Victoria Park (14k units) • Acquisition of 2,340 flats by VP for ca. €450m (closed early Q2 2019) |
• Acquisition of 10% stake in a 4,000 unit portfolio sold by French SNCF Squeezed out Buwog minorities for • ca. €334m Exercised call options for 12.4% of • VP, delisted shares and initiated squeeze-out proceedings • Acquisition of ca. 61% of shares and 69% of voting rights in Hembla from Blackstone • Tender offer for remaining shares in Hembla |
| Austria (run a scalable business) |
Sweden (main focus) |
France (biggest long-term potential) |
The Netherlands (open for opportunities) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of total portfolio |
~5%1 | ~9%1 | Not meaningful | 0% |
| Next steps | • Gradual asset rotation via recurring sales of mature assets and development of new assets in a similar magnitude • Run scalable operating business • Follow accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis |
• Pursue accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis • Add Vonovia experience and skill set and use Victoria Park as a platform to further grow in the Swedish residential market • Demonstrate success and sustainability of Vonovia business model to show it also works outside of Germany |
• Utilize 10% stake in SNCF portfolio to gain more profound understanding of the market • Safeguard pole position and first-mover advantage for potential opening of social housing to commercial ownership • Continue to actively engage with relevant French players to seek opportunities for taking the next steps |
• Continue market research • Be prepared for accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis |
1 Pro forma incl. Hembla
| €m (unless indicated otherwise) |
Sep 30, 2019 | Dec 31, 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Non-derivative financial liabilities | 20,505.6 | 20,136.0 |
| Foreign exchange rate effects | -45.4 | -33.5 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | -1,157.4 | -547.7 |
| Net debt | 19,302.8 | 19,554.8 |
| Sales receivables | -10.4 | -256.7 |
| Adj. net debt | 19,292.4 | 19,298.1 |
| Fair value of real estate portfolio | 47,763.9 | 44,239.9 |
| Shares in other real estate companies | 114.0 | 800.3 |
| Adj. fair value of real estate portfolio | 47,907.9 | 45,040.2 |
| LTV | 40.3% | 42.8% |
| LTV (incl. perpetual hybrid) | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 | 11.1x | 11.4x |
1 Adj. net debt quarterly average over Total EBITDA (LTM); adj. for IFRS 16 effect.
Asia Roadshow December 2019
| Bond KPIs | Covenant | Level | Sep 30, 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTV | ||||
| Total Debt / Total Assets | <60% | 40% | ||
| Secured LTV | <45% | 13% | ||
| Secured Debt / Total Assets |
||||
| ICR | >1.80x | 4.9x | ||
| Last 12M EBITDA / Last 12M Interest Expense |
||||
| Unencumbered Assets |
||||
| Unencumbered Assets / Unsecured Debt | >125% | 203% |
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
| Rating KPIs | Covenant | Level (BBB+) |
|---|---|---|
| Debt to Capital Total Debt / Total Equity + Total Debt |
<60% | |
| ICR Last 12M EBITDA / Last 12M Interest Expense |
>1.80x |
This presentation has been specifically prepared by Vonovia SE and/or its affiliates (together, "Vonovia") for internal use. Consequently, it may not be sufficient or appropriate for the purpose for which a third party might use it.
This presentation has been provided for information purposes only and is being circulated on a confidential basis. This presentation shall be used only in accordance with applicable law, e.g. regarding national and international insider dealing rules, and must not be distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part, nor may its contents be disclosed by the recipient to any other person. Receipt of this presentation constitutes an express agreement to be bound by such confidentiality and the other terms set out herein.
This presentation includes statements, estimates, opinions and projections with respect to anticipated future performance of Vonovia ("forward-looking statements") which reflect various assumptions concerning anticipated results taken from Vonovia's current business plan or from public sources which have not been independently verified or assessed by Vonovia and which may or may not prove to be correct. Any forward-looking statements reflect current expectations based on the current business plan and various other assumptions and involve significant risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. Any forward-looking statements only speak as at the date the presentation is provided to the recipient. It is up to the recipient of this presentation to make its own assessment of the validity of any forward-looking statements and assumptions and no liability is accepted by Vonovia in respect of the achievement of such forward-looking statements and assumptions.
Vonovia accepts no liability whatsoever to the extent permitted by applicable law for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or penalty arising from any use of this presentation, its contents or preparation or otherwise in connection with it.
No representation or warranty (whether express or implied) is given in respect of any information in this presentation or that this presentation is suitable for the recipient's purposes. The delivery of this presentation does not imply that the information herein is correct as at any time subsequent to the date hereof.
Vonovia has no obligation whatsoever to update or revise any of the information, forward-looking statements or the conclusions contained herein or to reflect new events or circumstances or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent subsequent to the date hereof.
This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
This presentation is neither an advertisement nor a prospectus and is made available on the express understanding that it does not contain all information that may be required to evaluate, and will not be used by the attendees/recipients in connection with, the purchase of or investment in any securities of the Company. This presentation is selective in nature and does not purport to contain all information that may be required to evaluate the Company and/or its securities. No reliance may or should be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness.
This presentation is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.
Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it may be taken, transmitted or distributed directly or indirectly into or within the United States, its territories or possessions. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The securities of the Company have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Consequently, the securities of the Company may not be offered, sold, resold, transferred, delivered or distributed, directly or indirectly, into or within in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in compliance with any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States unless registered under the Securities Act.
Tables and diagrams may include rounding effects.
Company Overview Business Update Additional Information
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