Investor Presentation • May 5, 2020
Investor Presentation
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Rolf Buch, CEO Helene von Roeder, CFO
| Q1 2020 Results | Equity Story & Business Overview |
Additional Information |
See Page Finder on page 54 for detailed index |
|---|---|---|---|
| pages 2-21 | pages 23-36 | pages 38-54 |
| Highlights | 4 |
|---|---|
| Segments | 5-11 |
| NAV | 12 |
| LTV, Funding, Covenants |
13-16 |
| COVID 19 & ESG | 17-20 |
| Guidance 2020 | 21 |
| Wrap-up | 22 |
| Highlights Q1 – Good Start into 2020 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix | ||||
| Performance | 3.9% organic rent growth y-o-y (Q1 2019: 4.0%). Y-o-y increase across all four segments. Adj. EBITDA Total €456.1m (+6.1%). Group FFO €335.5m (+10.5%) and €0.62 per share (+5.1%). |
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| NAV & Valuation |
With | Adj. NAV per share €52.23 (+0.6% since YE2019). No portfolio valuation in Q1. Next portfolio valuation planned as per June 30 (ca. 2/3 of portfolio via the 26 largest/most dynamic German cities plus Sweden plus Vienna). the exception of Berlin, where prices have remained flat, current indications for all other markets suggest a fair value growth broadly in line with H1 last year (H1 2019 l-f-l was 8.4% for portfolio revalued in Germany, 3.4% for Sweden and 3.8% for Vienna) This estimate is based on the assumption that we will continue to observe no material COVID 19 impact by June 30. |
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| Capital Structure |
LTV 43.0% (-10bps since YE2019). Net debt/EBITDA multiple 11.8x (+30 bps). |
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| AGM and Dividend |
AGM to take place in a virtual format on June 30, 2020. Unchanged €1.57 dividend per share (+9% y-o-y) to be proposed. |
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| Guidance 2020 |
Group FFO of €1,275m - | €1,325m. | Organic rent growth guidance reduced by 20 bps to ~3.3% to ~3.8% as a result of lower fluctuation and delayed completion of some investment projects due to COVID-19. All other guidance elements unchanged including EBITDA Total of €1,875m - |
€1,925m and |
| Good Start into the Year with Growth Across all Four Segments | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
6.1% Adj. EBITDA Total growth and 10.5% Group FFO growth as a result of a larger portfolio and performance improvements.
1 Consolidation in Q1 2020 (Q1 2019) comprised intragroup profits of €7.1m (€11.1m), the valuation result of development to hold of €4.3m (€5.3m), and IFRS 16 effects of €7.3m (€7.5m).
| Highlights Segments |
NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rental Segment (€m) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta | Rental income growth in Q1 2020 was driven by the acquisition of Hembla plus organic rental growth. The increase in operating expenses was mainly attributable to two Hembla-related reasons: |
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| Rental income | 564.0 | 502.2 | +12.3% | Q1 2019; and | more all-inclusive rents in Sweden compared to | ||||
| Maintenance expenses | -79.4 | -72.7 | +9.2% | double cost structure between Victoria Park and | |||||
| Operating expenses | -103.5 | -72.1 | +43.6% | Hembla (synergies not realized yet). EBITDA Operations margin (unadjusted)2 for Victoria Park |
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| Adj. EBITDA Rental | 381.1 | 357.4 | +6.6% |
was 51% and for Hembla 37%.
Rental Segment
1 EBITDA Operations margin (Adj. EBITDA Rental + Adj. EBITDA Value-add – intragroup profits) / Rental Income. Margin 2019 and beyond includes positive impact from IFRS 16. Cost per unit is defined as (Rental Income – EBITDA Operations + Maintenance) / average no. of units. 1EBITDA margins in Sweden not comparable to Germany because in Sweden rental income includes ancillary costs.
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
| Rental Segment | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating KPIs Rental Segment | |||||||
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
Value-add
1 Pre-tax WACC in impairment test of 4.1% in 2019 (2018: 5.1%). 2Distribution based on 2020 Budget
| Segment | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand for Individual Condos Remains Strong | |||||||
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
| Sales volume slightly below and gross proceeds in line with | Recurring sales by geography1 | ||||||
| previous year. | |||||||
| Outside the Recurring Sales Segment we sold 287 non-core units | Austria 26% |
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| in Q1 2020 with a fair value step-up of 36%, partly driven by the | |||||||
| disposal of a commercial property. | Germany 74% |
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| Recurring Sales Segment (€m) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta | ||||
| Units sold | 760 | 809 | -6.1% | ||||
| Gross proceeds | 108.6 | 109.0 | -0.4% | ||||
| Fair value | -79.4 | -79.4 | - | ||||
| Adjusted result | 29.2 | 29.6 | -1.4% | ||||
| Fair-value step-up | 36.8% | 37.2% | -40bps | ||||
| Selling costs | -2.8 | -3.3 | -15.2% | ||||
| Adj. EBITDA Recurring Sales | 26.4 | 26.3 | +0.4% | ||||
Recurring Sales
1 Based on sales proceeds.
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development to hold (by fair value) | |||||||
| Austria 47% |
Germany | ||||||
| 53% | Germany | ||||||
| fewer notarizations and completions. | Development segment in Q1 2020 influenced by Operating expenses in Q1 2020 positively impacted by lower volume and the reversal of |
Development to sell (by income) |
Development Segment
100%
provisions (€3m) that are no longer required.
| Development Segment (€m) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income from disposal of "to sell" properties |
45.4 | 59.4 | -23.6% |
| Cost of Development to sell |
-38.2 | -46.1 | -17.1% |
| Gross profit Development to sell |
7.2 | 13.3 | -45.9% |
| Fair value Development to hold |
20.2 | 47.3 | -57.3% |
| Cost of Development to hold | -15.9 | -42.0 | -62.1% |
| Gross profit Development to hold |
4.3 | 5.3 | -18.9% |
| Operating expenses Development segment | -0.1 | -8.2 | -98.8% |
| Adj. EBITDA Development | 11.4 | 10.4 | +9.6% |
Note: This segment includes the contribution of to-sell and to-hold constructions of new buildings. Not included is the construction of new apartments by adding floors to existing buildings, as this happens in the context of, and is accounted for, under modernization.
Development Segment
2020 target: ~1,300 completions
| €m (unless indicated otherwise) |
Mar. 31, 2020 | Dec. 31, 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity attributable to Vonovia's shareholders |
19,376.8 | 19,308.3 | |
| Deferred taxes on investment properties | 10,329.5 | 10,288.9 | |
| Fair value of derivative financial instruments1 | 76.5 | 79.8 | |
| Deferred taxes on derivative financial instruments | -21.8 | -22.4 | |
| EPRA NAV | 29,761.0 | 29,654.6 | |
| Goodwill | -1,440.2 | -1,492.7 | |
| Adj. NAV | 28,320.8 | 28,161.9 | +0.6% |
| EPRA NAV €/share | 54.88 | 54.69 | |
| Adj. NAV €/share | 52.23 | 51.93 | +0.6% |
| Number of shares (eop) |
542.3 | 542.3 |
1 Adjusted for effects from cross currency swaps.
| LTV well within Target Range | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
| €m (unless indicated otherwise) |
Mar 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Non-derivative financial liabilities | 23,430.6 | 23,574.9 |
| Foreign exchange rate effects | -44.0 | -37.8 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | -428.8 | -500.7 |
| Net debt | 22,957.8 | 23,036.4 |
| Sales receivables/prepayments | -4.9 | 21.4 |
| Adj. net debt | 22,952.9 | 23,057.8 |
| Fair value of real estate portfolio | 53,199.7 | 53,316.4 |
| Shares in other real estate companies | 148.8 | 149.5 |
| Adj. fair value of real estate portfolio | 53,348.5 | 53,465.9 |
| LTV | 43.0% | 43.1% |
| LTV (incl. perpetual hybrid) | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 | 11.8x | 11.5x |
1 Adj. net debt quarterly average over Adj. EBITDA Total (LTM), adj. for IFRS 16 effect.
| Highlights Segments |
NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KPI / criteria | Mar. 31, 2020 |
Dec. 31, 2019 |
Evolution of LTV and Interest Cover Ratio | |||
| Corporate rating (Scope) |
A- | A | ||||
| Corporate rating (S&P) | BBB+ | BBB+ | 5.0 4.9 |
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| LTV2 | 43.0% | 43.1% | 49.7% 49.0% |
4.7 4.6 |
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| Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 |
11.8x | 11.5x | 47.3% 3.7 |
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| ICR | 5.0x | 4.9x | 2.7 | 3.0 41.6% |
42.8% | 43.1% 43.0% target |
| Fixed/hedged debt ratio2 |
96% | 96% | 2.2 | 39.8% | range | |
| Average cost of debt2 |
1.5% | 1.5% | ||||
| Weighted average maturity (years)2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | ||||
| Unencumbered assets | 49% | 50% | ||||
| Most recent bond issuances €500m, 10 years €500m, 4 years |
Apr. 2020 2.250% 1.625% |
2013 2014 |
2015 2016 LTV (%) |
2017 2018 Interest Cover Ratio |
2019 Q1 2020 |
1Adj. net debt annual average over Total EBITDA. 2Excl. equity hybrid. 3Incl. April 2020 Dual Tranche Bond of €500m each.
Corporate bond
Equity hybrid
Structured loans
Mortgage loans
debt & EIB loans
Subsidized modernization
| Large Headroom on All Bond Covenants | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix | |
| Covenant | Required level | Current (March 31, 2020) |
level | |||||
| LTV (Total debt / total assets) |
<60% | 42% | ||||||
| Bonds | Secured LTV (Secured debt / total assets) |
<45% | 15% | |||||
| ICR (LTM EBITDA / LTM |
interest expense) | >1.8x | 5.0x | |||||
| Unencumbered assets (Unencumbered assets / unsecured debt) |
>125% | 196% |
| Financial Situation Remains Comfortable | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
| Ample Liquidity |
operating business expenses. coupon of 1.9%. |
Cash flow from operating business remains stable and is more than sufficient to cover all Refinancing activities in April 2020: €1.0bn unsecured bonds at a weighted average €1bn Commercial Paper Program covered by an additional €1bn Revolving Credit Facility. No material refinancing requirements until 12/2020 (€750m bond). |
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| Multiple (Re-) financing options |
more time for realization). | The unsecured bond market remains fully open even in the COVID-19 crisis for frequent investment grade issuers like Vonovia. This was recently proven with our €1.0bn dual tranche issuance in early April 2020. The secured financing market is also wide open with a focus on financings with moderate LTVs and solid sponsors like Vonovia (marginally lower rates but requires substantially |
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| Rating not impacted |
Our BBB+ (S&P) and A- | turbulence caused by COVID-19. | (Scope) ratings are not effected by the uncertainties and | ||||
| Refinancing conditions still comparatively low |
diversified funding strategy. | While refinancing conditions for unsecured debt are on average ca. 80bps above the levels in early 2020, they are still comparatively low in a historical context. Furthermore it appears that financing conditions have already begun improving again. The high portion of unencumbered assets in our portfolio enables us to execute on our |
The scale and depth of our operations put us at a relative advantage over other residential property owners and enable us to continue our operations with very little interference from COVID-19.
| Rental and Value-add |
Very robust with no material signs of weakness. Fluctuation rate going down; strong demand for rental apartments unbroken with more than 5,000 inquiries per day; increasing number of virtual apartment viewings. So far, ca. 1% of tenants in Germany have contacted us due to COVID-19 related hardship and we have agreed on individual and pragmatic solutions. No material financial impact. April rent collection with very low default ratios and in line with previous months. Customer service and infrastructure fully intact and running smoothly. Modernization investments ongoing but new larger projects largely put on ice for now, which will have a small impact on the value-add contribution from our own craftsmen organization. |
|---|---|
| Recurring Sales |
Small impact on Adj. EBITDA contribution. Overall demand for condo apartments remains strong. Largely digital back-office processes allow continued execution of sales. |
| Development | Construction activities ongoing but delay in some projects is expected to lead to some completions getting pushed into 2021. Small impact on Adj. EBITDA contribution. |
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As a large residential property owner with responsibility for 10,000 employees and around one million people in our apartments we consider the following areas as crucial, and we will continue to leverage our best-in-class operating platform for the benefit of all stakeholders.
| Employees | Flexible working hours and home office solutions wherever possible. Individual departments / operational units work in separate teams to avoid wide-spread contagion in case of COVID-19 infection. Protective gear for employees in the field and compliance with recommendations from Robert Koch-Institut. |
|---|---|
| Infrastructure | Customer service has maintained high service level and availability. Repair & maintenance capacity fully intact. Letting activities ongoing on-site and virtually. |
| Customers | Pragmatic solutions for tenants in financial distress. Moratorium on rent increases in COVID-19 environment. Masks will be available for our customers free of charge (via our app). Support and assistance especially for our senior citizens (e.g. groceries shopping). |
| Post COVID-19 Era |
Major investments and stimulus from the public and private sector will be required in the post COVID-19 era, and the focus must be on addressing the relevant challenges. Solutions to the long-term megatrends urbanization, energy efficiency and demographic change will be even more important after COVID-19 has faded. We continue to do our share both as a partner and a leader in innovation and research. |
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
| 2020 Guidance Confirmed for Adj. EBITDA Total and Group FFO | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segments | NAV | LTV & Funding |
COVID-19 & ESG | Guidance | Wrap-up | Appendix |
| 2020 Initial Guidance | 2020 Guidance Update | |
|---|---|---|
| Organic rent growth1 (eop) |
~3.5 - 4.0% |
~3.3 - 3.8% |
| Rental Income | €~2.3bn | €~2.3bn |
| Recurring Sales (# of units) | ~2,500 | ~2,500 |
| FV step-up Recurring Sales | ~30% | ~30% |
| Adj. EBITDA Total (€m) | 1,875 – 1,925 |
1,875 – 1,925 |
| Group FFO (€m) | 1,275 – 1,325 |
1,275 – 1,325 |
| Dividend (€/share) | 70% of Group FFO per share |
70% of Group FFO per share |
| Investments (€m) | 1,300 – 1,600 |
1,300 – 1,600 |
1If the one-off reduction of rents in Berlin to 120% of the rent ceiling is implemented in November, as currently planned, we expect to come out at the lower end of the range; similarly, if it is not implemented we expect to come out at the higher end of the range
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
Our start into 2020 was uneventful, as expected, and our performance remains highly predictable. We remain confident in our ability to deliver on our 2020 guidance and beyond.
Our business is proving very robust and only marginally impacted by COVID-19.
Our relevance as a large employer and residential property owner is magnified in the current COVID-19 environment, and we live up to our responsibility to all stakeholders.
While COVID-19 is rightfully at the center of attention, the housing sector must not lose sight of the megatrends, and Vonovia will make sure to maintain its leading role.
| Q1 2020 Results | Equity Story & Business Overview |
Additional Information |
See Page Finder on page 54 for detailed |
|---|---|---|---|
| pages 2-21 | pages 23-36 | pages 38-54 | index |
Dividend policy: ~70% of recurring cash earnings are distributed as dividends
1 Incl. 27k apartments in other strategic locations plus 5k in non-strategic locations that are not shown on the map. 2 To be proposed to the next AGM on June 30, 2020. 3 2013-2018 FFO is "FFO1" and 2019+ FFO is "Group FFO." 4Dividend yield plus l-f-l organic asset value growth from operating performance and investments (excluding yield compression).
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information Equity Story & Business Overview
Rent growth in regulated markets follows a sustainable upward trajectory and is largely independent from GDP developments; rents in unregulated markets go up and down broadly in line with the GDP development
Germany's average annual residential completions of the last five years fall short of estimated required volumes
Other factors such as supply/demand imbalance, rental regulation, market rent growth, location of assets etc. seem to outweigh the impact of interest rates when it comes to pricing residential real estate.
Sources: Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners), REIS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD, Note: Due to lack of q-o-q rent growth data for the US, the annual rent growth for a year is assumed to also be the q-o-q rent growth of that year. 2 Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). 3 Note: VNA 2010 – 2014 refers to Deutsche Annington Portfolio at the time; construction costs excluding land. The land value refers to the share of total fair value allocated to land. Yearly asset yields vs. rolling 200d average of 10y interest rates. Sources: Thomson Reuters, bulwiengesa
Business Segments across Entire Life Cycle of the Assets
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information
Equity Story & Business Overview
Full-scale Operating Platform Enables Insourcing Strategy
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information Equity Story & Business Overview
Residential real estate is a granular operating business. Vonovia has built a scalable platform to efficiently manage large portfolios and to provide the full range of services largely in-house.
Property Management Technical Service
~1,500 Lettings agents & caretakers
Face to the customer and eyes and ears on the ground in our local markets
~5,000 Craftsmen
Wholly owned craftsmen subsidiary ("VTS") for large share of maintenance and modernization plus pooling of entire purchasing power
~800 Landscape gardeners
Maintenance of gray and green areas and snow/ice removal in the winter
~1,000 Service Agents
Centralized property management including inbound calls and e-mails, ancillary cost billing, contract management, maintenance dispatch and rent growth management
High degree of standardization
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
Increasing Profitability via Scale and Efficiencies
Our strategy is to own for generations and create scale effects and efficiencies (buy & hold), and therefore different from a financial investor with a limited investment horizon (buy & sell)
| >8m | >2.5m | >0.7m | >0.6m | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invoices to process p.a. |
Inbound calls p.a. |
Ancillary expenses bills p.a. |
Maintenance & repair jobs p.a. |
… | |||
| Granular Operating Business |
Portfolio size (eop, '000)
1 EBITDA Operations margin (Adj. EBITDA Rental + Adj. EBITDA Value-add – intragroup profits). 2019 margin includes positive impact from IFRS 16. Cost per unit is defined as (Rental Income – EBITDA Operations + Maintenance) / average no. of units.
Leveraging the B-to-C Nature of Our Business
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information Equity Story & Business Overview
Savings from insourcing of services to ensure maximum process management and cost control
Additional revenues from walking back the value chain and offering services at market prices but on a lower cost basis due to scale and efficiencies
Craftsmen cost savings (VTS) Multimedia
Residential environment
Other (e.g. 3rd party management, insurance, security packages, e-mobility)
Opportunistic Increase of Scalability via Mergers & Acquisitions
| Major transactions since IPO | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~11k units | 04/2014 | First sizeable portfolio acquisition |
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| ~30k units | 10/2014 | First sizeable corporate acquisition |
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| ~145k units | 03/2015 | Mixed cash/stock public takeover |
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| ~19k units | 07/2015 | Sizeable all equity financed portfolio acquisition |
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| ~23k units | 01/2017 | Public takeover and first acquisition outside Germany |
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| ~48k units | 03/2018 | Public takeover and acquisition of critical mass in Austria |
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| ~14k units | 06/2018 | Public takeover and acquisition of "nucleus" in Sweden |
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| ~21k units | 12/2019 | Acquisition of critical mass in Sweden |
1EPRA has published new Best Practice Recommendations to replace EPRA NAV with a revised but broadly similar metric
Implementation of Vonovia Business Model in Comparable Markets
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information Equity Story & Business Overview
| Germany | Austria | Sweden | France | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| • Primary home market and expected to remain dominant in the foreseeable future. Home of Vonovia business • model that we are seeking to repeat in similar markets |
• Run scalable operating business (Austrian SAP client successfully implemented) • "Austrian model" along build-hold-sell value chain |
• Prove that Vonovia business model works outside Germany Market consolidation on • the basis of Victoria Park and Hembla combination |
• Largest long-term potential • Active market engagement and networking to safeguard pole position for when opportunity arises |
• Continue market research • Highly opportunistic approach in case of acquisition opportunity |
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information Equity Story & Business Overview
Energy efficiency
% of population above/below 65 years
Sources: United Nations, Prognos AG
change
Focus on Urban Areas with Long-term Supply/Demand Imbalance
Shrinking (above average) Shrinking No clear direction Growing Growing (above average)
decisions
Vonovia location High-influx cities ("Schwarmstädte"). For more information: http://investoren.vonovia.de/websites/vonovia/English/4050/financial-reports-_-presentations.html 1 Simple addition of 2017-2019 valuation results excluding compound interest effects. 2 Source: BBSR (https://gis.uba.de/maps/resources/apps/bbsr/index.html?lang=de) 2
The results fully confirm our portfolio management
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information
Equity Story & Business Overview
Long-term Support from Megatrends Investments into Existing Portfolio and New Construction
More than €500m Neighborhood Development Investments
Q1 2020 Results Additional Information Equity Story & Business Overview
While each project is different depending on specific local requirements and opportunities, neighborhood development projects usually include energy efficient modernization, construction of new apartments, apartment modernization and general upgrade of the neighborhood environment.
Main Focus Points of Our Sustainability and ESG Dimensions
Researching innovative ways to reduce CO2 emissions and increase the use of renewable energy
Deeply rooted in the middle of society with products & services that impact the lives of more than one million people
environment in which they are advance in line with their own • Business conduct is built around trust, transparency and reliability
As Europe's largest listed landlord we provide a home to around 1 million people from 170 nations. All of our actions have more than just an economic dimension.
Granular B-to-C business with high degree of stability. Business model is resilient, predictable and provides downside protection
Long-term owner and full-scale operator with proven track record of scale and efficiencies in regulated residential real estate markets
The megatrends urbanization, energy efficiency and demographic change provide structural support and long-term tailwind for the business
Uniquely positioned in Germany with ability and ambition to implement Vonovia business model in selected European metropolitan areas
Fully committed to long-term nature of the business and the importance of sustainability
| Q1 2020 Results | Equity Story & Business Overview |
Additional Information |
See Page Finder on page 54 for detailed |
|---|---|---|---|
| pages 2-21 | pages 23-36 | pages 38-54 | index |
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
| Fair value1 | Residential | In-place rent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2020 | (€bn) | % of total | (€/sqm) | units | (€/sqm/month) |
| Operate | 11,059 | 22% | 1,909 | 85,251 | 7.23 |
| Invest | 28,040 | 55% | 1,898 | 238,196 | 6.68 |
| Strategic | 39,099 | 76% | 1,901 | 323,447 | 6.83 |
| Recurring Sales | 3,826 | 7% | 2,030 | 27,589 | 6.94 |
| Non-core | 477 | 1% | 1,448 | 3,888 | 6.42 |
| Vonovia Germany | 43,402 | 84% | 1,905 | 354,924 | 6.83 |
| Vonovia Sweden |
5,328 | 10% | 1,794 | 38,089 | 9.20 |
| Vonovia Austria |
2,634 | 5% | 1,453 | 22,310 | 4.65 |
| Vonovia Total | 51,364 | 100% | 1,864 | 415,323 | 6.94 |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition. 1 Fair value of the developed land excluding €2,157.2m, of which €573.3m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €433.3m for assets under construction, €504.2m for development, €321.0m IFRS 16 effect and €315.4m for other.
| Q1 2020 Results | Equity Story & Business Overview | Additional Information | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fair value1 | In-place rent | |||||||||||
| Regional Market | (€m) | (€/sqm) | Residential units |
Vacancy (%) |
Total (p.a., €m) |
Residential (p.a., €m) |
Residential (€/sqm/ month) |
Organic rent growth (LTM, %) |
Multiple (in-place rent) |
Purchase power index (market data)2 |
Market rent increase forecast Valuation (% p.a.) |
Average rent growth (LTM, %) from Optimize Apartment |
| Berlin | 7,478 | 2,685 | 42,271 | 1.4 | 230 | 218 | 6.88 | 3.5 | 32.5 | 81.3 | 1.8 | 47.3 |
| Rhine Main Area (Frankfurt, Darmstadt, Wiesbaden) |
4,434 | 2,491 | 27,428 | 1.7 | 179 | 173 | 8.37 | 3.7 | 24.8 | 105.9 | 1.8 | 29.7 |
| Southern Ruhr Area (Dortmund, Essen, Bochum) |
3,881 | 1,432 | 43,491 | 3.4 | 198 | 193 | 6.25 | 5.4 | 19.6 | 89.1 | 1.5 | 29.0 |
| Rhineland (Cologne, Düsseldorf, Bonn) |
3,842 | 1,980 | 28,508 | 2.4 | 169 | 161 | 7.30 | 3.0 | 22.7 | 100.8 | 1.7 | 27.8 |
| Dresden | 3,606 | 1,572 | 38,519 | 3.6 | 168 | 159 | 6.26 | 3.7 | 21.4 | 82.6 | 1.7 | 23.1 |
| Hamburg | 2,767 | 2,158 | 19,758 | 1.9 | 111 | 107 | 7.25 | 4.0 | 24.9 | 98.9 | 1.6 | 37.2 |
| Munich | 2,285 | 3,500 | 9,665 | 1.4 | 66 | 62 | 8.29 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 123.7 | 1.9 | 33.3 |
| Stuttgart | 2,127 | 2,393 | 13,753 | 1.7 | 86 | 82 | 8.06 | 3.4 | 24.9 | 105.7 | 1.8 | 32.4 |
| Kiel | 2,109 | 1,528 | 23,220 | 2.4 | 105 | 101 | 6.43 | 3.9 | 20.0 | 74.8 | 1.7 | 31.8 |
| Hanover | 1,881 | 1,798 | 16,264 | 2.7 | 84 | 81 | 6.77 | 4.1 | 22.3 | 90.3 | 1.7 | 29.1 |
| Northern Ruhr Area (Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen) |
1,702 | 1,068 | 25,505 | 3.7 | 110 | 107 | 5.86 | 3.4 | 15.5 | 81.4 | 1.2 | 29.1 |
| Bremen | 1,192 | 1,610 | 11,852 | 3.2 | 52 | 50 | 5.99 | 5.5 | 22.8 | 84.3 | 1.8 | 19.6 |
| Leipzig | 960 | 1,548 | 9,179 | 3.8 | 44 | 42 | 6.12 | 2.5 | 21.7 | 76.3 | 1.8 | 25.7 |
| Westphalia (Münster, Osnabrück) | 914 | 1,465 | 9,475 | 3.3 | 46 | 45 | 6.28 | 5.1 | 19.9 | 90.9 | 1.5 | 33.1 |
| Freiburg | 661 | 2,368 | 4,041 | 2.2 | 25 | 25 | 7.56 | 3.4 | 26.1 | 86.9 | 1.7 | 29.6 |
| Other Strategic Locations | 2,913 | 1,681 | 26,773 | 3.5 | 138 | 133 | 6.79 | 3.1 | 21.1 | 1.6 | 30.2 | |
| Total Strategic Locations | 42,754 | 1,913 | 349,702 | 2.7 | 1,813 | 1,738 | 6.84 | 3.8 | 23.6 | 1.7 | 30.9 | |
| Non-Strategic Locations | 647 | 1,511 | 5,222 | 5.9 | 32 | 28 | 6.49 | 1.7 | 20.4 | 1.7 | 23.1 | |
| Total Germany | 43,402 | 1,905 | 354,924 | 2.7 | 1,845 | 1,765 | 6.83 | 3.7 | 23.5 | 1.7 | 30.8 | |
| Vonovia Sweden | 5,328 | 1,794 | 38,089 | 2.6 | 320 | 293 | 9.20 | 5.0 | 16.7 | 2.0 | - | |
| Vonovia Austria | 2,634 | 1,453 | 22,310 | 4.8 | 108 | 89 | 4.65 | 4.7 | 24.3 | 1.6 | - | |
| Total | 51,364 | 1,864 | 415,323 | 2.8 | 2,273 | 2,147 | 6.94 | 3.9 | 22.6 | 1.7 | n/a |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition. 1 Fair value of the developed land excluding €2,157.2m, of which €573.3m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €443.3m for assets under construction, €504.2m for development, €321.0m IFRS 16 effect and €315.4m for other. 2 Source: GfK (2020). Data refers to the specific cities indicated in the tables, weighted by the number of households where applicable.
Year-by-year rent growth materialization from investment programs
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
1Average historic cash/scrip ratio has been 55%/45% since inception in 2016
=
investment program
Investment Program
contribution
Acquisitions – Opportunistic but Disciplined
Acquisitions are shown for all categories in the year the acquisition process started.
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
| Larger acquisitions | Fair Value per sqm | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Deal | Residential units # |
Locations | @ Acquisition | Mar 31, 2020 | ∆ |
| DEWAG | 11,300 | Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt/Main | €1,344 | €2,499 | 86% | |
| 2014 | VITUS1 | 20,500 | Bremen, Kiel | €807 | €1,553 | 93% |
| GAGFAH | 144,600 | Dresden, Berlin, Hamburg | €889 | €1,835 | 106% | |
| 2015 | FRANCONIA | 4,100 | Berlin, Dresden | €1,044 | €2,123 | 103% |
| SÜDEWO | 19,400 | Stuttgart, Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Ulm | €1,380 | €2,205 | 60% | |
| 2016 | GRAINGER | 2,400 | Munich, Mannheim | €1,501 | €2,472 | 65% |
| CONWERT (Germany & Austria) |
23,400 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam, Vienna | €1,353 | €2,059 | 52% | |
| 2017 | thereof Germany | 21,200 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam | €1,218 | €1,962 | 61% |
| thereof Austria | 2,200 | Vienna | €1,986 | €2,564 | 29% | |
| PROIMMO | 1,000 | Hanover | €1,617 | €1,887 | 17% | |
| BUWOG (Germany & Austria) |
48,300 | Berlin, Lübeck, Vienna, Villach | €1,244 | €1,514 | 22% | |
| thereof Germany | 27,000 | Berlin, Lübeck, Kiel | €1,330 | €1,742 | 31% | |
| 2018 | thereof Austria | 21,300 | Vienna, Villach, Graz | €1,157 | €1,291 | 12% |
| VICTORIA PARK (Sweden) | 14,000 | Stockholm, Malmö, Gothenburg | SEK15,286 | SEK18,122 | 19% | |
| AKELIUS (Sweden) | 2,300 | Stockholm, Gothenburg | SEK25,933 | SEK27,158 | 5% | |
| 2019 | HEMBLA (Sweden) | 21,400 | Stockholm | SEK20,157 | SEK20,158 | 0% |
| Total | 312,700 |
Note: Excluding smaller tactical acquisitions. 1 Net of subportfolio sold right after the acquisition
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
The market fundamentals in Sweden are very
comparable to Germany
High degree of similarities in terms of urbanization,
rental regulation, supply/demand imbalance and
gap between in-place values and replacement values
required volumes Victoria Park3 – fair value/sqm (SEK; total lettable area) vs. construction costs
Rent growth in regulated markets follows a sustainable upward trajectory and is largely independent from GDP developments; rents in unregulated markets go up and down broadly in line with the GDP development
Sweden's average annual residential completions of the last five years fall short of estimated
Sources: REIS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD, Statistics Sweden. Note: Due to lack of q-o-q rent growth data for the US and Sweden, the annual rent growth for a year is assumed to also be the q-o-q rent growth of that year. 2 Note: The land value refers to the share of total fair value allocated to land. Allocation between building and land in Sweden assumed to be similar to Germany. Sources: Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, Statistics Sweden. 32019 includes portfolio acquired from Akelius.
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
15.0
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
Distribution of household sizes (million)
2.3
2.3
2.1
0.9
0.6
Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). 2035E household numbers are based on trend scenario of the German Federal Statistics Office.
Source: Factset, company data; VNA performance is total shareholder return (share price plus dividends reinvested)
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
| Rating agency | Rating | Outlook | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scope | A- | Stable | 13 Dec 2019 |
| Standard & Poor's | BBB+ | Stable | 06 Apr 2020 |
| Name | Tenor & Coupon | ISIN | Amount | Issue price | Coupon | Final Maturity Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bond 023B (EMTN) | 10 years 2.250% | DE000A28VQD2 | € 500m | 98.908% | 2.250% | 07 Apr 2030 |
| Bond 023A (EMTN) | 4 years 1.625% | DE000A28VQC4 | € 500m | 99.831% | 1.625% | 07 Apr 2024 |
| Bond 022C (EMTN) | 20 years 1.625% | DE000A2R8NE1 | € 500m | 98.105% | 1.625% | 07 Oct 2039 |
| Bond 022B (EMTN) | 8 years 0.625% | DE000A2R8ND3 | € 500m | 98.941% | 0.625% | 07 Oct 2027 |
| Bond 022A (EMTN) | 3.5 years 0.125% | DE000A2R8NC5 | € 500m | 99.882% | 0.125% | 06 Apr 2023 |
| Bond 021B (EMTN) | 15 years 1.125% | DE000A2R7JE1 | € 500m | 99.822% | 1.125% | 14 Sep 2034 |
| Bond 021A (EMTN) | 10 years 0.500% | DE000A2R7JD3 | € 500m | 98.965% | 0.500% | 14 Sep 2029 |
| Bond 020 (EMTN) | 6.5 years 1.800% | DE000A2RWZZ6 | € 500m | 99.836% | 1.800% | 29 Jun 2025 |
| Bond 019 (EMTN) | 5 years 0.875% | DE000A192ZH7 | € 500m | 99.437% | 0.875% | 03 Jul 2023 |
| Bond 018D (EMTN) | 20 years 2.750% | DE000A19X8C0 | € 500m | 97.896% | 2.750% | 22 Mar 2038 |
| Bond 018C (EMTN) | 12 years 2.125% | DE000A19X8B2 | € 500m | 98.967% | 2.125% | 22 Mar 2030 |
| Bond 018B (EMTN) | 8 years 1.500% | DE000A19X8A4 | € 700m(1) | 101.119% | 1.500% | 22 Mar 2026 |
| Bond 018A (EMTN) | 4.75 years 3M EURIBOR+0.450% | DE000A19X793 | € 600m | 100.000% | 0.793% hedged | 22 Dec 2022 |
| Bond 017B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A19UR79 | € 500m | 99.439% | 1.500% | 14 Jan 2028 |
| Bond 017A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.750% | DE000A19UR61 | € 500m | 99.330% | 0.750% | 15 Jan 2024 |
| Bond 015 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.125% | DE000A19NS93 | € 500m | 99.386% | 1.125% | 08 Sep 2025 |
| Bond 014B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.750% | DE000A19B8E2 | € 500m | 99.266% | 1.750% | 25 Jan 2027 |
| Bond 014A (EMTN) | 5 years 0.750% | DE000A19B8D4 | € 500m | 99.863% | 0.750% | 25 Jan 2022 |
| Bond 013 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.250% | DE000A189ZX0 | € 1,000m | 99.037% | 1.250% | 06 Dec 2024 |
| Bond 011B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A182VT2 | € 500m | 99.165% | 1.5000% | 10 Jun 2026 |
| Bond 011A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.875% | DE000A182VS4 | € 500m | 99.530% | 0.875% | 10 Jun 2022 |
| Bond 010C (EMTN) | 8 years 2.250% | DE000A18V146 | € 1,000m | 99.085% | 2.2500% | 15 Dec 2023 |
| Bond 010B (EMTN) | 5 years 1.625% | DE000A18V138 | € 752m(2) | 99.852% | 1.625% | 15 Dec 2020 |
| Bond 009B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A1ZY989 | € 500m | 98.455% | 1.5000% | 31 Mar 2025 |
| Bond 008 (Hybrid) | perpetual 4% | XS1117300837 | € 1,000m | 100.000% | 4.000% | perpetual |
| Bond 007 (EMTN) | 8 years 2.125% | DE000A1ZLUN1 | € 500m | 99.412% | 2.125% | 09 July 2022 |
| Bond 005 (EMTN) | 8 years 3.625% | DE000A1HRVD5 | € 500m | 99.843% | 3.625% | 08 Oct 2021 |
| Bond 004 (USD-Bond) | 10 years 5.000% | US25155FAB22 | USD 250m | 98.993% | 4.580%(3) | 02 Oct 2023 |
(1) Nominal mount incl. tap bond €200m in Feb 2020
(2) Nominal amount outstanding after Liability Management in Sep 2019
(3) EUR-equivalent Coupon
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
Rene Hoffmann (Head of IR) Primary contact for Sell side, Buy side +49 234 314 1629 [email protected]
Stefan Heinz Primary contact for Sell side, Buy side +49 234 314 2384 [email protected]
Oliver Larmann Primary contact for private investors, AGM +49 234 314 1609 [email protected]
General inquiries [email protected]
App & Website
| May 5 | Interim results 3M 2020 |
|---|---|
| May 6-8 + 13 | 3M-Roadshow - VIRTUAL |
| May 20 | European Property Seminar, Amsterdam (Kempen) - VIRTUAL |
| May 27 | Best of Europe One-on-One Conference, New York City (UBS)1 - VIRTUAL |
| June 04 | DB Access Berlin Conference, Berlin (Deutsche Bank) - VIRTUAL |
| June 09 | European CEO Conference, Paris (Exane) - VIRTUAL |
| June 10 | European Financials Conference, Rome (Goldman Sachs) - VIRTUAL |
| June 17 | German & Austrian Property Day, Paris (KeplerCheuvreux) 1 - VIRTUAL |
| June 18 | Europe & EEMEA Property Conference, London (Morgan Stanley) |
| June 30 | Annual General Meeting |
| Aug 5 | Interim results H1 2020 |
| Aug 19 | Bankhaus Lampe Deutschlandkonferenz, Baden Baden (Bankhaus Lampe) |
| Aug 20 | HSBC European Real Estate Conference, Frankfurt am Main (HSBC) |
| Sept 03 | Corporate Conference 2020, Frankfurt (Commerzbank)1 |
| Sept 21 | German Corporate Conference 2020, Munich (Berenberg & Goldman Sachs) |
| Sep 24 | Investment Conference 2020, Munich (Baader) 1 |
| Oct 01 | Commerzbank Real Estate Forum, London (Commerzbank) |
| Nov 4 | Interim results 9M 2020 |
The most up-to-date financial calendar is always available online.
1 IR only
This presentation has been specifically prepared by Vonovia SE and/or its affiliates (together, "Vonovia") for internal use. Consequently, it may not be sufficient or appropriate for the purpose for which a third party might use it.
This presentation has been provided for information purposes only and is being circulated on a confidential basis. This presentation shall be used only in accordance with applicable law, e.g. regarding national and international insider dealing rules, and must not be distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part, nor may its contents be disclosed by the recipient to any other person. Receipt of this presentation constitutes an express agreement to be bound by such confidentiality and the other terms set out herein.
This presentation includes statements, estimates, opinions and projections with respect to anticipated future performance of Vonovia ("forward-looking statements") which reflect various assumptions concerning anticipated results taken from Vonovia's current business plan or from public sources which have not been independently verified or assessed by Vonovia and which may or may not prove to be correct. Any forward-looking statements reflect current expectations based on the current business plan and various other assumptions and involve significant risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. Any forward-looking statements only speak as at the date the presentation is provided to the recipient. It is up to the recipient of this presentation to make its own assessment of the validity of any forward-looking statements and assumptions and no liability is accepted by Vonovia in respect of the achievement of such forward-looking statements and assumptions.
Vonovia accepts no liability whatsoever to the extent permitted by applicable law for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or penalty arising from any use of this presentation, its contents or preparation or otherwise in connection with it.
No representation or warranty (whether express or implied) is given in respect of any information in this presentation or that this presentation is suitable for the recipient's purposes. The delivery of this presentation does not imply that the information herein is correct as at any time subsequent to the date hereof.
Vonovia has no obligation whatsoever to update or revise any of the information, forward-looking statements or the conclusions contained herein or to reflect new events or circumstances or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent subsequent to the date hereof.
This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
This presentation is neither an advertisement nor a prospectus and is made available on the express understanding that it does not contain all information that may be required to evaluate, and will not be used by the attendees/recipients in connection with, the purchase of or investment in any securities of the Company. This presentation is selective in nature and does not purport to contain all information that may be required to evaluate the Company and/or its securities. No reliance may or should be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness.
This presentation is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.
Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it may be taken, transmitted or distributed directly or indirectly into or within the United States, its territories or possessions. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The securities of the Company have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Consequently, the securities of the Company may not be offered, sold, resold, transferred, delivered or distributed, directly or indirectly, into or within in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in compliance with any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States unless registered under the Securities Act.
Tables and diagrams may include rounding effects.
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
Q1 2020 Results Equity Story & Business Overview Additional Information
Adj. EBITDA Development 31 European Activities 46 Market Data Sweden
Financial Situation Remains Comfortable 37 Why Vonovia?
Adj. NAV 33 Exposure to the Right Markets 48 Share Information
Segment Overview 26 Business Segments 41 Rent Growth Pipeline
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