Investor Presentation • Nov 26, 2020
Investor Presentation
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Portfolio Update
Q3 Financial Performance
Outlook
| Sales ratio fully recovered to pre-COVID levels; at this point no meaningful impact from renewed lockdown |
||
|---|---|---|
| Operational | Three to four institutional deals signed or close to signing in Q4 |
|
| Highlights | Acquisitions: five new projects approved since June, incl. valuehome (aggregate GDV of c.€600m*) |
|
| Construction starts since beginning of Q3 (four projects; sales volume €225m) |
| Adjusted revenues: €291.3m (9M 2019: €302.4m, -3.7%) |
|
|---|---|
| 9M 2020 | Adjusted gross profit margin: 32.3% (9M 2019: 32.7%) |
| Results | Adjusted EBIT: €50.0m (9M 2019: €56.7m; -11.8%) |
| Adjusted earnings after tax (EAT): €24.9m (9M 2019: €43.4m; -42.6%) |
| 2020 forecast: Adjusted revenues and adjusted EAT target of €470m-€500m and €30m-€35m |
|
|---|---|
| Outlook | 2021 forecast: Adjusted revenues of €900m-€1.0bn; adjusted EAT of at least €90m |
| Target payout-ratio: 30% of net profit (starting for FY 2020) |
| Key topics | Instone position | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sales | • Institutional: constructive ongoing discussions in line with expectations • Retail: volumes at pre-COVID levels, selling prices in-line with budget |
|
| 2 | Construction | • Construction progress according to plan on all our sites; no major impact from limited number of infections so far • Easing cost pressure due to less severe capacity constraints in construction industry |
|
| 3 | Approvals | • Still a differentiated picture depending on the individual situation in the municipalities (e.g. level of digitisation etc.) but no major delays so far |
|
| 4 | Employees | • Headquarter and branch offices: Increased share of Work from Home since October; stricter social distancing measures implemented • Construction sites: Tight monitoring of social distancing rules and hygienic measures; purchase of air cleaning systems |
| IMX (immoscout): | Prices for new built condos up +1.4% in Q3 (qoq); +4.8% (yoy) |
|---|---|
| Hypoport, EPX*: | Condo prices +3.8% in Q3 (qoq); +9.0% YTD in Germany |
| vdp: | Condo prices: +2.1% (qoq); +4.8% YTD |
| Bundesbank: | Mortgage loans for private households in September flat yoy (€21.8bn) |
|---|---|
| Interhyp: | Interest costs for mortgage loans near all-time low (~0.75% for 10 yrs.) |
| volume (€m) |
Exp. units | |
|---|---|---|
| Heusenstamm (near Frankfurt) |
149 | 341 |
| Halle | 38 | 151 |
| Subtotal as of 06/20 |
187 | 492 |
| Hannover, Buentekamp III |
50 | 72 |
| Nuremberg, Boxdorf |
59 | 125 |
| Rhine/Main | 194 | 480 |
| Berlin* | 222 | 531 |
| Rhine/Main* | 72 | 177 |
9 | 26.11.2020 | Q3-2020 *Including relevant share of at-equity consolidated JV's, which are not included in portfolio development bridge
~€5,450 ASP / sqm
€2.4bn GDV pre-construction or under construction
| €m | Q3 2020 | Q3 2019 | Change | 9M 2020 | 9M 2019 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 111.7 | 128.2 | -12.9% | 291.3 | 302.4 | -3.7% |
| Project cost |
-75.4 | -87.8 | -14.1% | -197.2 | -203.5 | -3.1% |
| Gross profit |
36.3 | 40.4 | -10.1% | 94.1 | 98.9 | -4.9% |
| Gross Margin |
32.5% | 31.5% | 32.3% | 32.7% | ||
| Platform cost |
-14.9 | -16.0 | -6.9% | -44.8 | -42.2 | 6.2% |
| Share of results of joint ventures |
0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | ||
| EBIT | 21.8 | 24.8 | -12.1% | 50.0 | 56.7 | -11.8% |
| EBIT Margin | 19.5% | 19.3% | 17.2% | 18.8% | ||
| Financial and other result |
-6.0 | -5.1 | -15.5 | -10.6 | ||
| EBT | 15.7 | 19.6 | -19.9% | 34.4 | 46.1 | -25.4% |
| EBT Margin | 14.1% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 15.2% | ||
| Taxes | -4.7 | -1.3 | -9.6 | -2.7 | ||
| Tax rate |
29.9% | 6.6% | 27.9% | 5.9% | ||
| EAT | 11.2 | 18.3 | -38.8% | 24.9 | 43.4 | -42.6% |
| EAT Margin | 10.0% | 14.3% | 8.5% | 14.4% |
| €m | 30/09/2020 | 31/12/2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate debt | 215.3 | 180.8 |
| Project debt | 332.8 | 414.7 |
| Financial debt | 548.1 | 595.5 |
| Cash and cash equivalents and term deposits |
-241.5 | -117.1 |
| Net financial debt | 306.6 | 478.4 |
| Inventories and Contract asset | 951.2 | 951.1 |
| LTC** | 32.2% | 50.3% |
| Adjusted EBIT (LTM)*** | 122.9 | 129.6 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (LTM)*** | 127.0 | 133.7 |
| Net financial debt / adjusted EBITDA | 2.4 | 3.6 |
14 | 26.11.2020 | Q3-2020
**Loan-to-Cost: Net financial debt/ (Inventories + Contract assets)
***LTM: Last twelve months. Adj. EBIT/EBITDA for FY 2019 has been restated to align the adj. EBIT/EBITDA calculation to the changed definition used from January 1, 2020 onwards.
| Cash Flow (€m) | 9M 2020 |
9M 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA adj. | 53.0 | 59.7 |
| Other non-cash items | -5.5 | -14.0 |
| Taxes paid | -13.3 | -10.2 |
| Change in working capital |
-7.8 | -67.5 |
| Operating cash flow |
26.4 | -32.0 |
| Land plot acquisition payments (incl. RETT*) |
72.2 | 100.8 |
| Operating cash flow excl. investments |
98.6 | 68.8 |
| Liquidity (€m) |
Total | t/o drawn |
t/o available |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate debt | |||
| Promissory notes |
206.0 | 206.0 | 0.0 |
| Revolving Credit Facilites |
119.0 | 10.0 | 109.0 |
| Total | 325.0 | 216.0 | 109.0 |
| Cash and cash equivalents and term deposits |
241.5 | ||
| Total corporate funds available |
350.5 | ||
| Project debt | |||
| Project finance** | 458.7 | 334.6 | 124.1 |
Additional upside from deployment of funds from capital increase
| NAV (€m) as of 30/09/2020 | ACTUAL |
|---|---|
| Expected selling prices of project pipeline (GDV) |
5,938 |
| Payments received |
-750 |
| Expected project costs |
-3,389 |
| Net debt | -307 |
| Net Asset Value | 1,492 |
| Number of shares (m) |
47.0 |
| Net Asset Value per share (€) | 31.75 |
| €m | Outlook 2020 | Outlook 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues (adjusted) | 470-500 | 900-1,000 |
| Gross profit margin (adjusted) |
>28% | n/a |
| EAT (adjusted) | 30-35 | >90 |
| Volume of concluded Sales contracts |
>450 | n/a |
Planned payout ratio of 30% of adjusted EAT
18 | 26.11.2020 | Q3-2020
FY 2020 a transitional year due to severe temporary effects from the COVID-19 pandemic
* % figures as of 30 September 2020; referring to midpoint of guidance
The increase of finance costs is related to the increase in gross debt due to investments in new land acquisition.
In 9M-2019 tax rate was positively influenced by a special effect associated with the first-time recognition of loss carry forwards.
| €m | 30/09/2020 | 31/12/2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Non-current assets | 18.9 | 20.4 |
| Inventories | 805.4 | 732.1 |
| Contract assets | 145.8 | 219.0 |
| Other receivables | 143.5 | 34.7 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 141.5 | 117.1 |
| Current assets | 1,236.2 | 1,102.9 |
| Total assets | 1,255.1 | 1,123.4 |
| Total equity | 508.4 | 310.2 |
| Financial liabilities | 297.7 | 451.6 |
| Other provisions and liabilities | 26.2 | 26.6 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 14.3 | 12.0 |
| Non-current liabilities | 338.2 | 490.2 |
| Financial liabilities | 250.4 | 143.9 |
| Trade payables | 79.0 | 87.6 |
| Other provisions and liabilities | 79.1 | 91.5 |
| Current liabilities | 408.5 | 323.0 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 1,255.1 | 1,123.4 |
As at 30 September 2020, inventories increased to €805.4m (Q4 2019: €732.1m) due to construction progress as well as land acquisitions of €60.8m.
| Weighted average corporate debt maturity | 3.1 years |
|---|---|
| Weighted average corporate interest costs |
3.12% |
| Share of total debt with floating interest | 82.1% |
*Based on total available credit lines (drawn and undrawn)
| €m | Q3 2020 | Q2 2020 | Q1 2020 | Q4 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q1 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume of sales contracts |
94.9 | 54.1* | 69.4 | 1,088.2 | 183.1 | 69.0 | 62.8 |
| Project Portfolio (as of) | 5,937.5 | 5,701.3 | 5,744.4 | 5,845.7 | 5,384.1 | 5,091.7 | 4,790.2 |
| thereof already sold (as of) | 2,108.6 | 2,017.1 | 2,189.0 | 2,174.0 | 1,261.1 | 1,128.7 | 1,061.1 |
| Units | Q3 2020 | Q2 2020 | Q1 2020 | Q4 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q1 2019 |
| Volume of sales contracts |
128 | 347* | 109 | 2,063 | 380 | 120 | 170 |
| Project Portfolio (as of) |
13,374 | 13,075 | 12,952 | 13,715 | 12,233 | 11,628 | 11,041 |
| thereof already sold (as of) | 4,770 | 4,648 | 4,799 | 4,814 | 2,944 | 2,684 | 2,564 |
(Unless otherwise stated, the figures are quarterly values)
*Of which €24.3m (303 units) from updated business plan of already sold project Westville.
| Project | City | Units | €m |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Marienkrankenhaus | Frankfurt a. M. | 28 | 32.5 |
| Schulterblatt "Amanda" | Hamburg | 41 | 29.1 |
| Westville* | Frankfurt a. M. | 303 | 24.3 |
| Schumanns Höhe | Bonn | 50 | 19.3 |
| "Carlina Park", Schopenhauerstraße |
Nuremberg | 39 | 19.2 |
| Schwarzwaldstraße | Herrenberg | 37 | 16.7 |
| Lange Seegewann, Delkenheim | Wiesbaden | 2 | 15.9 |
| "Neckar.Au Viertel" |
Rottenburg | 40 | 14.6 |
| "Wohnen im Hochfeld", Unterbach |
Dusseldorf | 18 | 12.5 |
| Quartier Stallschreiber Straße - Luisenpark |
Berlin | 12 | 10.6 |
| Others | 14 | 23.6 | |
| Total | 584 | 218.4 |
*€24.3m (303 units) from updated business plan
| Project | City | Adj. revenues (€m) |
|---|---|---|
| St. Marienkrankenhaus | Frankfurt a. M. | 43.9 |
| Schumanns Höhe | Bonn | 30.5 |
| west.side | Bonn | 28.2 |
| Quartier Stallschreiber Straße - Luisenpark |
Berlin | 22.8 |
| Schulterblatt "Amanda" | Hamburg | 18.7 |
| Westville | Frankfurt a. M. | 14.8 |
| City-Prag - Wohnen im Theaterviertel |
Stuttgart | 13.7 |
| Schwarzwaldstraße | Herrenberg | 12.8 |
| Franklin | Mannheim | 12.3 |
| S'LEDERER | Schorndorf | 9.6 |
| Others | 84.1 | |
| Total | 291.3 |
| Project | City | Start in | Exp. Sales Volume (€m) |
Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schulterblatt "Amanda" |
Hamburg | Q2 | ~ 93 | ~ 165 |
| Schorndorf, S'LEDERER |
Schorndorf | Q2 | ~ 87 | ~ 230 |
| "Niederkasseler Lohweg" |
Dusseldorf | Q3 | ~ 80 | ~ 220 |
| "Neckar.AU Viertel" (section 1) |
Rottenburg | Q3 | ~ 24 | ~ 65 |
| "Carlina Park" |
Nuremberg | Q3 | ~ 67 | ~ 100 |
| "west.side" (section 3) | Bonn | Q3 | ~ 54 | ~ 140 |
| Total | ~ 405 | ~ 920 |
| Project | City | Sales volume (€m) |
Units | Already sold in % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Marienkrankenhaus | Frankfurt a. M. | 51.9 | 41 | 73% |
| "Carlina Park", Schopenhauerstr. 10 |
Nuremberg | 47.9 | 63 | 29% |
| Schulterblatt "Amanda" |
Hamburg | 38.1 | 47 | 57% |
| Scholle 1, D-Unterbach |
Dusseldorf | 24.4 | 43 | 33% |
| Marina Bricks | Regensburg | 11.9 | 14 | 60% |
| Schwarzwaldstraße | Herrenberg | 9.7 | 17 | 80% |
| "Neckar.Au Viertel" |
Rottenburg | 9.5 | 26 | 61% |
| Quartier Stallschreiber Straße - Luisenpark |
Berlin | 7.8 | 7 | 94% |
| Schumanns Höhe BF 3 |
Bonn | 0.9 | 1 | 98% |
| Total | 202.0 | 259 |
| Project | Location | Sales volume (expected) |
Land plot acquired |
Building right obtained |
Sales started |
Construction started |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg | ||||||
| Schulterblatt "Amanda" |
Hamburg | € 95 Mio |
||||
| Kösliner Weg |
Norderstedt-Garstedt | 85 Mio € |
||||
| Sportplatz Bult |
Hannover | € 120 Mio |
||||
| Rothenburgsort | Hamburg | 198 Mio € |
||||
| Büntekamp | Hannover | 143 € Mio |
||||
| Berlin | ||||||
| Quartier Stallschreiber Straße / Luisenpark |
Berlin | € 236 Mio |
||||
| Wendenschlossstr | Berlin | 135 Mio € |
||||
| Rote Kaserne West |
Potsdam | € 59 Mio |
||||
| NRW | ||||||
| Sebastiansraße / Schumanns Höhe |
Bonn | 70 Mio € |
||||
| Niederkasseler Lohweg |
Düsseldorf | N/A | ||||
| Unterbach / Wohnen am Hochfeld |
Düsseldorf | € 172 Mio |
||||
| Literaturquartier | Essen | 68 Mio € |
||||
| REME | Mönchengladbach | € 105 Mio |
||||
| west.side | Bonn | 187 Mio € |
||||
| Gartenstadtquartier | Dortmund | € 103 Mio |
Semi-filled circle means that the milestone has yet been achieved for sections of the project (land plot acquisition, start of sales or construction). Concerning the building right the semi-filled circle means that the zoning process has been initiated. No circle for "land plot acquired" means that the land has not yet been purchased but secured by contract.
| Project | Location | Sales volume (expected) |
Land plot acquired |
Building right obtained |
Sales started |
Construction started |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhine-Main | ||||||
| Wiesbaden-Delkenheim Lange Seegewann , |
Wiesbaden | 100 Mio € |
||||
| Siemens-Areal | Frankfurt | 554 Mio € |
||||
| St Marienkrankenhaus |
Frankfurt am Main |
211 Mio € |
||||
| Friedberger Landstraße |
Frankfurt am Main |
324 Mio € |
||||
| Elisabethenareal Frankfurt |
Frankfurt am Main |
30 Mio € |
||||
| Steinbacher Hohl |
Frankfurt am Main |
53 Mio € |
||||
| Gallus | Frankfurt am Main |
41 Mio € |
||||
| Westville | Frankfurt am Main |
N/A | ||||
| Aukamm | Wiesbaden | 147 Mio € |
||||
| Heusenstamm | Heusenstamm | 153 Mio € |
||||
| Leipzig | ||||||
| Semmelweisstraße | Leipzig | 110 Mio € |
||||
| Parkresidenz | Leipzig | € 250 Mio |
||||
| Rosa-Luxemburg-Straße | Leipzig | 111 Mio € |
||||
| Heide Süd |
Halle | € 38 Mio |
Semi-filled circle means that the milestone has yet been achieved for sections of the project (land plot acquisition, start of sales or construction). Concerning the building right the semi-filled circle means that the zoning process has been initiated. No circle for "land plot acquired" means that the land has not yet been purchased but secured by contract.
| Project | Location | Sales volume (expected) |
Land plot acquired |
Building right obtained |
Sales started |
Construction started |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baden-Wurttemberg | ||||||
| City-Prag - Wohnen im Theaterviertel | Stuttgart | 126 Mio. € | ||||
| Franklin | Mannheim | 69 Mio. € | ||||
| Schwarzwaldstraße | Herrenberg | 49 Mio. € | ||||
| S`LEDERER | Schorndorf | N/A | ||||
| Neckartalterrassen | Rottenburg | 149 Mio. € | ||||
| Schäferlinde | Herrenberg | 56 Mio. € | ||||
| Bavaria South | ||||||
| Ottobrunner Straße | München | 84 Mio. € | ||||
| Beethovenpark | Augsburg | 58 Mio. € | ||||
| Römerhügel | Augsburg | 51 Mio. € | ||||
| Bavaria North | ||||||
| Schopenhauerstraße | Nürnberg | 67 Mio. € | ||||
| Stephanstraße | Nürnberg | 66 Mio. € | ||||
| Seetor | Nürnberg | 112 Mio. € | ||||
| Eslarner Straße | Nürnberg | 50 Mio. € | ||||
| Lagarde | Bamberg | 80 Mio. € | ||||
| Boxdorf | Nürnberg | 59 Mio. € | ||||
| Marina Bricks | Regensburg | 30 Mio. € |
Semi-filled circle means that the milestone has yet been achieved for sections of the project (land plot acquisition, start of sales or construction). Concerning the building right the semi-filled circle means that the zoning process has been initiated. No circle for "land plot acquired" means that the land has not yet been purchased but secured by contract.
| Basic data | Shareholder structure (October 2020) | |
|---|---|---|
| • ISIN: |
DE000A2NBX80 | |
| • Ticker symbol: |
INS | |
| • No of shares: |
46,988,336 | |
| • Index: |
SDAX | |
| • Market cap* : |
€1,003.2m | |
| • Average daily trading volume: |
€1.4m | |
| • Free float: |
100% | |
| • Indices: |
SDAX | |
| • Market segment: |
Prime Standard, Frankfurt |
Others: 58.64% |
* Based on closing price on 20/11/2020 at €21.35
| November | 26 | Quarterly Statement for the first nine months of 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| November | 27 | Virtual Roadshow, Switzerland and Scandinavia (Mainfirst) |
| November | 30 | Virtual Roadshow, UK (Deutsche Bank) |
| December | 01 | Virtual Roadshow, US (Jefferies) |
| December | 02 | Virtual Roadshow, Benelux (Kempen & Co) |
| December | 03 | Virtual Roadshow, Germany (MM Warburg) |
| December | 09 | HSBC Virtual Real Estate Seminar |
| January | 07 | ODDO BHF Forum |
|---|---|---|
| January | 18 | UniCredit Kepler Cheuvreux German Corporate Conference |
| February | 24 | Publication of preliminary figures for the financial year 2020 |
| March | 18 | Annual Report 2020 |
| March | 25 | BofA EMEA Real Estate CEO Virtual Conference |
| March | 30 | Jefferies Pan-European Mid-Cap Virtual Conference |
| May | 20 | Quarterly Statement for the first quarter of 2021 |
| June | 09 | Annual General Meeting |
| August | 26 | Group Interim Report for the first half of 2021 |
| November | 18 | Quarterly Statement for the first nine months of 2021 |
Head of Business Development & Communication
T +49 201 45355-137 M +49 173 2606034
Senior Investor Relations Manager
T +49 201 45355-428
M +49 162 8035792 [email protected]
Grugaplatz 2-4, 45131 Essen E-Mail: [email protected] Internet: www.instone.de/en
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