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Vonovia SE

Investor Presentation Sep 20, 2021

477_ip_2021-09-20_d8cbe876-ee05-459c-95c1-2ca05b0765a4.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Capital Markets Update

  • Federal Elections Outlook
  • Rights Issue Considerations
  • Illustrative NTA & FFO Accretion Scenarios

September 20, 2021

German Federal Election: Polls Suggest A Tight Race

Based on most recent polls several combinations are possible and a clear winner combination with an obvious mandate to form the new government looks unlikely.

  • As polls indicate a tight race it seems likely that the election results will not deliver a clear outcome and different coalitions will be possible.
  • Any coalition will require substantial consensus, and it is impossible to predict what concessions will be made by which party and on which issue.
  • The very strict hardline positions laid out in the various manifestos will most likely be diluted in coalition negotiations as parties are forced to find consensus and common ground.
  • In light of (i) the consensual view across party lines to combat climate change and reduce CO2 and (ii) the high ratio of retail landlords (65%) there seems to be a factual need for housing policy to remain sufficiently balanced in order to increase much needed CO2 reduction efforts and also to leave enough "breathing room" for private owners.

Investments, Modernization, and Climate Protection

Consensus on Need to Reduce CO2 but Different Ways to Get There

CDU/CSU SPD The Greens FDP (Liberals) The Left

Climate neutrality
until 2045
Tax incentives for

modernization
investments

Strengthen landlord
to-tenant electricity
models

Support innovative
research including
electrolyzers, fuel
cells, hydrogen
technology,
photovoltaics, and
innovation centers

Climate neutrality no
later than 2045
Subsidies
for

modernization
investments and
urban quarter
developments

Achieve CO
2
neutrality in the real
estate sector
Use CO
tax to

2
incentivize energy
efficient
modernizations
among home owners

Support
landlord-to
tenant electricity
models

Expand renewable
energy and increase
energy efficiency
Make Germany the

leader in hydrogen
technology

Support innovative
forms of renewable
energy generation

100% renewable
energy
by 2035
Increase

modernization rate
Reduce

modernization
allowance
(€1.50/sqm)

Refurbishments to be
neutral to warm
rents via "1/3 model"
with equal burden
sharing between
tenant, landlord and
tax payer

Subsidy programs
and tax incentives
for owners

Distribution along
energy efficiency
classes
Increase
CO
tax to

2
€60 by 2023 (instead
of 2025)

Simplify and support
landlord-to-tenant
electricity models
Include Paris Climate

Agreement Targets
in Germany's Basic
law

Deregulation to
accelerate energy
turnaround
Implement

environmental
policies free from
ideology

Support a lively and
innovative start-up
culture
Comprehensive

reform of energy
related taxes and
fees

Climate neutrality
until 2035
Introduce
climate

protection as a
government target in
Germany's Basic Law

Increase energy
efficient
modernization rate
by a factor of 3x
Refurbishments to be

neutral to warm
rents
Support
landlord-to

tenant electricity
models
Sources: Parties' manifestos and "First 100 Days Action Plans"
CDU/CSU SPD The Greens FDP (Liberals) The Left
Measures to increase

supply instead of
additional regulation
(sufficient new
supply considered to
be the best form of
tenant protection)
Round table for

affordable housing
with all relevant
stakeholders

Rent increase
in line
with inflation

Temporary
moratorium on rent
increases in tight
housing markets

Continue 10% rent
cap on relettings
(Mietpreisbremse)

Increase look-back
period for Mietspiegel
to 8 yeas
Limit regular rent

increases to 2% p.a.

Ensure wide use of
qualified Mietspiegel
as firm legal basis for
rent increases

Continue and
enforce
10% rent
cap on relettings
(Mietpreisbremse)

Allow for federal
legislation to
implement rent
ceilings

Increase look-back
period for Mietspiegel
to 20 years
End "share deal

abuse"
Abolish the 10% rent

cap on relettings
(Mietpreisbremse)

Expropriation and
regulation lead to
less supply and are
not a solution
Increase
supply

through deregulation
Enable rent freeze

legislation anywhere
in Germany

Rent increase
moratorium in tight
housing markets

End "share deal
abuse"

Rights Issue Considerations

  • Vonovia remains committed to a conservative capital structure including an LTV target range of 40%-45%.
  • Vonovia considers a rights issue to partly refinance the all-cash transaction with Deutsche Wohnen.
  • A capital increase via a rights issue gives existing investors the right (on a pro-rata basis) to buy additional securities in the company at the subscription price thereby allowing them to avoid dilution of their shareholding.

Rights Issue Mechanics

  • From a portfolio point of view, the level of discount is irrelevant because the rights issue is a 'zero‐sum game' to existing shareholders
  • The theoretical ex-right price (TERP) is the weighted average price of old and new shares and the theoretical price at which the shares should trade, once the rights are detached.
  • The relation between the share price before the rights issue and the weighted average share price after the rights issue is the TERP factor.
  • This factor is used to adjust all per-share numbers prior to the rights issue to adequately reflect the weighted average number of shares.
TERP (current no. of shares
* share price)
+
(new no. of shares * subscription price)
(old
no. of shares + new no. of shares)

The discount to TERP impacts the ratio between value of shares vs. value of rights; but the total value is not affected

1 Number of rights received per share owned; dependent on subscription ratio 2 Number of rights needed to purchase one new share depending on subscription ratio

Value & Earnings Growth from DWNI Transaction Material NTA & FFO Accretion at All Acceptance Levels

Rights issue assumptions for illustrative example:

  • €53.00 share price
  • Subscription price 20% discount to TERP
  • Including rough estimate for H2 valuation
  • €2.4bn disposals to City of Berlin

If the target LTV after the rights issue is set at ~45% (upper end of target range) different acceptance levels would result in different rights issue volumes and lead to different levels of NTA and FFO p.s. growth

50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Rights
issue
volume
(€bn)
0 2.1 4.2 6.3 8.5
LTV ~45% ~45% ~45% ~45% ~45%
NTA2
(€/share)
79.44 75.60 72.14 69.13 66.14
NTA (€/share) VNA stand alone H1 2021 (reported) 68.44 68.44 68.44 68.44 68.44
NTA (€/share) VNA stand alone H1 2021 (TERP adj.) 68.44 67.26 66.08 64.90 63.67
Growth 16% 12% 9% 7% 4%
Group FFO (€/share) pro forma (excl. Synergies) 3.57 3.28 3.02 2.79 2.58
Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2021E (guidance midpoint) 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59
Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2021E (TERP-adj.) 2.59 2.55 2.50 2.46 2.41
Growth 38% 29% 21% 14% 7%
Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2020A (reported) 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38
Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2020A (TERP-adj.) 2.38 2.34 2.30 2.26 2.21
Growth 50% 40% 31% 24% 17%

1 All forward-looking numbers on this page are for illustrative purposes only and neither constitute a guidance nor do they preempt any decision with regards to the potential rights issue. 2 Adding back only 50% of DWNI deferred taxes on investment properties, in line with EPRA BPR (3.2(v)(iii)).

This presentation has been specifically prepared by Vonovia SE and/or its affiliates (together, "Vonovia") for internal use. Consequently, it may not be sufficient or appropriate for the purpose for which a third party might use it.

This presentation has been provided for information purposes only and is being circulated on a confidential basis. This presentation shall be used only in accordance with applicable law, e.g. regarding national and international insider dealing rules, and must not be distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part, nor may its contents be disclosed by the recipient to any other person. Receipt of this presentation constitutes an express agreement to be bound by such confidentiality and the other terms set out herein.

This presentation includes statements, estimates, opinions and projections with respect to anticipated future performance of Vonovia ("forward-looking statements") which reflect various assumptions concerning anticipated results taken from Vonovia's current business plan or from public sources which have not been independently verified or assessed by Vonovia and which may or may not prove to be correct. Any forward-looking statements reflect current expectations based on the current business plan and various other assumptions and involve significant risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. Any forward-looking statements only speak as at the date the presentation is provided to the recipient. It is up to the recipient of this presentation to make its own assessment of the validity of any forward-looking statements and assumptions and no liability is accepted by Vonovia in respect of the achievement of such forward-looking statements and assumptions.

Vonovia accepts no liability whatsoever to the extent permitted by applicable law for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or penalty arising from any use of this presentation, its contents or preparation or otherwise in connection with it.

No representation or warranty (whether express or implied) is given in respect of any information in this presentation or that this presentation is suitable for the recipient's purposes. The delivery of this presentation does not imply that the information herein is correct as at any time subsequent to the date hereof.

Vonovia has no obligation whatsoever to update or revise any of the information, forward-looking statements or the conclusions contained herein or to reflect new events or circumstances or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent subsequent to the date hereof.

This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.

This presentation is neither an advertisement nor a prospectus and is made available on the express understanding that it does not contain all information that may be required to evaluate, and will not be used by the attendees/recipients in connection with, the purchase of or investment in any securities of the Company. This presentation is selective in nature and does not purport to contain all information that may be required to evaluate the Company and/or its securities. No reliance may or should be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness.

This presentation is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.

Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it may be taken, transmitted or distributed directly or indirectly into or within the United States, its territories or possessions. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The securities of the Company have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Consequently, the securities of the Company may not be offered, sold, resold, transferred, delivered or distributed, directly or indirectly, into or within in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in compliance with any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States unless registered under the Securities Act.

Tables and diagrams may include rounding effects.

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