Investor Presentation • Sep 20, 2021
Investor Presentation
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September 20, 2021
Based on most recent polls several combinations are possible and a clear winner combination with an obvious mandate to form the new government looks unlikely.
Consensus on Need to Reduce CO2 but Different Ways to Get There
| CDU/CSU | SPD | The Greens | FDP (Liberals) | The Left | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • Climate neutrality until 2045 Tax incentives for • modernization investments • Strengthen landlord to-tenant electricity models • Support innovative research including electrolyzers, fuel cells, hydrogen technology, photovoltaics, and innovation centers |
• Climate neutrality no later than 2045 Subsidies for • modernization investments and urban quarter developments • Achieve CO 2 neutrality in the real estate sector Use CO tax to • 2 incentivize energy efficient modernizations among home owners • Support landlord-to tenant electricity models • Expand renewable energy and increase energy efficiency Make Germany the • leader in hydrogen technology • Support innovative forms of renewable energy generation |
• 100% renewable energy by 2035 Increase • modernization rate Reduce • modernization allowance (€1.50/sqm) • Refurbishments to be neutral to warm rents via "1/3 model" with equal burden sharing between tenant, landlord and tax payer • Subsidy programs and tax incentives for owners • Distribution along energy efficiency classes Increase CO tax to • 2 €60 by 2023 (instead of 2025) • Simplify and support landlord-to-tenant electricity models Include Paris Climate • Agreement Targets in Germany's Basic law |
• Deregulation to accelerate energy turnaround Implement • environmental policies free from ideology • Support a lively and innovative start-up culture Comprehensive • reform of energy related taxes and fees |
• Climate neutrality until 2035 Introduce climate • protection as a government target in Germany's Basic Law • Increase energy efficient modernization rate by a factor of 3x Refurbishments to be • neutral to warm rents Support landlord-to • tenant electricity models |
||
| Sources: Parties' manifestos and "First 100 Days Action Plans" |
| CDU/CSU | SPD | The Greens | FDP (Liberals) | The Left |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measures to increase • supply instead of additional regulation (sufficient new supply considered to be the best form of tenant protection) |
Round table for • affordable housing with all relevant stakeholders • Rent increase in line with inflation • Temporary moratorium on rent increases in tight housing markets • Continue 10% rent cap on relettings (Mietpreisbremse) • Increase look-back period for Mietspiegel to 8 yeas |
Limit regular rent • increases to 2% p.a. • Ensure wide use of qualified Mietspiegel as firm legal basis for rent increases • Continue and enforce 10% rent cap on relettings (Mietpreisbremse) • Allow for federal legislation to implement rent ceilings • Increase look-back period for Mietspiegel to 20 years End "share deal • abuse" |
Abolish the 10% rent • cap on relettings (Mietpreisbremse) • Expropriation and regulation lead to less supply and are not a solution Increase supply • through deregulation |
Enable rent freeze • legislation anywhere in Germany • Rent increase moratorium in tight housing markets • End "share deal abuse" |
| TERP | (current no. of shares * share price) + (new no. of shares * subscription price) |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| (old no. of shares + new no. of shares) |
The discount to TERP impacts the ratio between value of shares vs. value of rights; but the total value is not affected
1 Number of rights received per share owned; dependent on subscription ratio 2 Number of rights needed to purchase one new share depending on subscription ratio
Rights issue assumptions for illustrative example:
If the target LTV after the rights issue is set at ~45% (upper end of target range) different acceptance levels would result in different rights issue volumes and lead to different levels of NTA and FFO p.s. growth
| 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rights issue volume (€bn) |
0 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 8.5 |
| LTV | ~45% | ~45% | ~45% | ~45% | ~45% |
| NTA2 (€/share) |
79.44 | 75.60 | 72.14 | 69.13 | 66.14 |
| NTA (€/share) VNA stand alone H1 2021 (reported) | 68.44 | 68.44 | 68.44 | 68.44 | 68.44 |
| NTA (€/share) VNA stand alone H1 2021 (TERP adj.) | 68.44 | 67.26 | 66.08 | 64.90 | 63.67 |
| Growth | 16% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 4% |
| Group FFO (€/share) pro forma (excl. Synergies) | 3.57 | 3.28 | 3.02 | 2.79 | 2.58 |
| Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2021E (guidance midpoint) | 2.59 | 2.59 | 2.59 | 2.59 | 2.59 |
| Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2021E (TERP-adj.) | 2.59 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 2.46 | 2.41 |
| Growth | 38% | 29% | 21% | 14% | 7% |
| Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2020A (reported) | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.38 |
| Group FFO (€/share) VNA stand-alone 2020A (TERP-adj.) | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.30 | 2.26 | 2.21 |
| Growth | 50% | 40% | 31% | 24% | 17% |
1 All forward-looking numbers on this page are for illustrative purposes only and neither constitute a guidance nor do they preempt any decision with regards to the potential rights issue. 2 Adding back only 50% of DWNI deferred taxes on investment properties, in line with EPRA BPR (3.2(v)(iii)).
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Tables and diagrams may include rounding effects.
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