AI assistant
Vonovia SE — Call Transcript 2019
Aug 2, 2019
477_ip_2019-08-02_40ff4d21-d82f-4705-a9a7-6e33dab9dfd9.pdf
Call Transcript
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
H1 2019 Earnings Call August 2, 2019
Rolf Buch, CEO Helene von Roeder, CFO
| Agenda | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix |
| Highlights | 3 |
|---|---|
| Segment Results | 4 |
| NAV & Valuation | 14 |
| Financing & LTV | 18 |
| European Activities | 20 |
| Guidance | 21 |
| Appendix | 23 |
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Highlights H1 2019 Performance Y-o-y increase across all four segments Adj. EBITDA Total €872.8m (+22.2%) Group FFO €609.1m (+12.9%) and €1.12 per share (+7.7%; eop shares) NAV & Valuation Adj. NAV per share €48.51 (+8.0% since YE2018) H1 2019 valuation of ca. 2/3 of portfolio resulted in 7.9% total value growth of the revalued portfolio Capital Structure LTV 40.4% (-240bps since YE2018) Net debt/EBITDA multiple 11.2x Regulation The rent freeze draft legislation in Berlin is scheduled for later this year with the final law expected to go into effect in January 2020 in spite of fundamental constitutional concerns We expect the Federal Constitutional Court to rule the Berlin legislation as unconstitutional but a decision will take time We continue to see the spillover risk for our business outside of Berlin as extremely limited
We are continuing our solid performance and remain confident in our upward trajectory and ability to deliver sustainable growth for the remainder of the year and beyond.
- 22.2% Adj. EBITDA Total growth and 12.9% Group FFO growth on the back of a 3.8% larger portfolio and performance improvements.
- While the operating business with the rental and value-add segments remains the primary performance driver, recurring sales and development made an increasing contribution in H1 2019.
1 Consolidation in H1 2019 (H1 2018) comprised intragroup profits of €23.9m (€16.1m), valuation result of development to hold of €17.7m (€2.7m), and IFRS 16 effects of €13.8m (€0.0m).
Adj. EBITDA Rental Up from Acquisitions and Organic Growth
EBITDA Operations margin Germany2
Rental Segment
1 Prior-year adjusted to include transaction corporate costs.
2 EBITDA Operations margin (Adj. EBITDA Rental + Adj. EBITDA Value-add – intragroup profits). 2019 margin includes positive impact from IFRS 16.
H1 2019 Earnings Call
- Organic rent growth of 4.0% in line with expectations and on track to achieve guidance of ca. ~4.4% for year end.
- Average in-place rent of €6.64 per sqm (+4.4% not like-for-like and including impacts from acquisitions and disposals).
- Vacancy rate of 2.9%, largely investment related.
- Maintenance expenses and capitalized maintenance stable on a per-square-meter basis.
Rental Segment
9-10% IRR target for investment program
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Portfolio Cluster Ca. 60% of German portfolio earmarked for investment strategy, safeguarding long-term sustainability of optimize apartment and upgrade building investment strategy. Non-core: 754 units sold in H1 2019 with a fair value step-up of 20.4%. Operate; 20% Invest; 60% Recurring Sales; 8% Non-core; 1% Austria; 6% Sweden; 5%
Rental Segment
| Fair value1 | Residential | In-place rent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2019 | (€bn) | % of total | (€/sqm) | units | (€/sqm/month) |
| Operate | 9.2 | 20% | 1,784 | 75,046 | 6.92 |
| Invest | 27.5 | 60% | 1,791 | 248,445 | 6.56 |
| Strategic | 36.8 | 80% | 1,789 | 323,491 | 6.65 |
| Recurring Sales | 3.8 | 8% | 1,920 | 28,686 | 6.79 |
| Non-core | 0.6 | 1% | 1,231 | 5,263 | 6.11 |
| Vonovia Germany | 41.1 | 89% | 1,789 | 357,440 | 6.65 |
| Vonovia Austria | 2.6 | 6% | 1,394 | 22,661 | 4.59 |
| Vonovia Sweden | 2.3 | 5% | 1,738 | 16,638 | 9.20 |
| Vonovia Total | 45.9 | 100% | 1,759 | 396,739 | 6.64 |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition.
1 Fair value of the developed land excluding €1,817.1m, of which €405.6m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €414.0m for assets under construction, €495.5m for development, €272.1m IFRS 16 effect, and €230.5m for other.
Rental Segment
Regional Cluster
| Highlights Segment Results |
NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fair value1 | In-place rent | |||||||||||
| Regional Market | (€m) | (€/sqm) | Residential units |
Vacancy (%) |
Total (p.a., €m) |
Residential (p.a., €m) |
Residential (€/sqm/ month) |
Organic rent growth (LTM, %) |
Multiple (in-place rent) |
Purchase power index (market data)2 |
Market rent increase forecast Valuation (% p.a.) |
Average rent growth (LTM, %) from Optimize Apartment |
| Berlin | 7,171 | 2,594 | 42,042 | 1.6 | 224 | 212 | 6.73 | 4.1 | 32.1 | 80.4 | 1.8 | 49.6 |
| Rhine Main Area (Frankfurt, Darmstadt, Wiesbaden) |
4,191 | 2,346 | 27,530 | 1.6 | 175 | 169 | 8.17 | 4.5 | 24.0 | 105.0 | 1.8 | 38.5 |
| Rhineland (Cologne, Düsseldorf, Bonn) |
3,610 | 1,839 | 28,803 | 2.6 | 167 | 159 | 7.11 | 3.6 | 21.7 | 102.0 | 1.7 | 29.9 |
| Southern Ruhr Area (Dortmund, Essen, Bochum) |
3,579 | 1,326 | 43,382 | 3.5 | 191 | 185 | 6.04 | 5.1 | 18.8 | 88.5 | 1.5 | 31.8 |
| Dresden | 3,432 | 1,499 | 38,485 | 3.8 | 163 | 154 | 6.09 | 3.5 | 21.1 | 81.8 | 1.7 | 30.1 |
| Hamburg | 2,567 | 2,003 | 19,829 | 2.0 | 108 | 104 | 7.03 | 3.6 | 23.7 | 98.4 | 1.6 | 39.9 |
| Munich | 2,170 | 3,322 | 9,661 | 1.2 | 65 | 61 | 8.12 | 3.2 | 33.4 | 121.8 | 1.8 | 51.3 |
| Kiel | 2,051 | 1,473 | 23,373 | 2.3 | 104 | 99 | 6.25 | 4.3 | 19.8 | 74.8 | 1.7 | 38.2 |
| Stuttgart | 2,008 | 2,254 | 13,797 | 1.9 | 84 | 80 | 7.89 | 3.1 | 24.0 | 104.5 | 1.8 | 37.8 |
| Hanover | 1,773 | 1,694 | 16,310 | 3.3 | 82 | 79 | 6.59 | 4.7 | 21.7 | 90.1 | 1.7 | 36.9 |
| Northern Ruhr Area (Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen) |
1,580 | 974 | 26,009 | 3.6 | 109 | 106 | 5.70 | 3.9 | 14.5 | 81.7 | 1.2 | 25.1 |
| Bremen | 1,134 | 1,533 | 11,862 | 3.9 | 50 | 47 | 5.74 | 3.8 | 22.7 | 84.2 | 1.8 | 28.0 |
| Leipzig | 910 | 1,465 | 9,188 | 4.3 | 43 | 41 | 6.00 | 2.6 | 21.1 | 74.5 | 1.7 | 22.9 |
| Westphalia (Münster, Osnabrück) | 861 | 1,381 | 9,494 | 3.6 | 44 | 43 | 6.04 | 5.1 | 19.5 | 92.4 | 1.5 | 38.9 |
| Freiburg | 630 | 2,263 | 4,033 | 2.0 | 25 | 24 | 7.37 | 3.5 | 25.7 | 85.4 | 1.7 | 45.9 |
| Other Strategic Locations | 2,673 | 1,536 | 26,808 | 3.2 | 136 | 131 | 6.64 | 4.1 | 19.6 | - | 1.5 | 37.3 |
| Total Strategic Locations Germany | 40,342 | 1,802 | 350,606 | 2.8 | 1,769 | 1,694 | 6.66 | 4.0 | 22.8 | - | 1.7 | 35.6 |
| Non-Strategic Locations | 739 | 1,295 | 6,834 | 6.5 | 39 | 34 | 6.22 | 1.0 | 18.8 | - | 1.6 | 22.3 |
| Germany total | 41,080 | 1,789 | 357,440 | 2.9 | 1,808 | 1,727 | 6.65 | 4.0 | 22.7 | 100.0 | 1.7 | 35.5 |
| Austria | 2,563 | 1,394 | 22,661 | 4.8 | 106 | 89 | 4.59 | 1.8 | 24.1 | - | 1.2 | - |
| Sweden | 2,260 | 1,738 | 16,638 | 1.6 | 141 | 130 | 9.20 | 5.4 | 16.0 | - | 2.0 | - |
| Total Vonovia | 45,903 | 1,759 | 396,739 | 2.9 | 2,056 | 1,946 | 6.64 | 4.0 | 22.3 | - | 1.7 | n/a |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition.
1 Fair value of the developed land excluding €1,817.1m, of which €405.6m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €414.0m for assets under construction, €495.5m for development, €272.1m IFRS 16 effect, and €230.5m for other. 2 Source: GfK (2018). Data refers to the specific cities indicated in the tables, weighted by the number of households where applicable.
Continued Dynamic Growth in Adj. EBITDA Value-add
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix
Value-add Segment
- Two types of value-add: (i) internal savings mainly via craftsmen organization and (ii) additional revenue through external income by offering services at market prices but on a lower cost basis due to efficiencies and size.
- Insourcing of services to ensure maximum process management and cost control.
- Expansion of core business to generate additional revenues by walking back the value chain and offering services that were previously provided by third parties (internalization of margin).
- Cash flows from Adj. EBITDA Value-add are not included in the portfolio valuation, and as a consequence largely ignored in NAV.
- Applying the impairment test discount rate1 to the 2019E Adj. EBITDA Value-add suggests an additional value of ~€4.50 per share (~9% of top of H1 2019 Adj. NAV).
1 Pre-tax WACC in impairment test of 5.1%. 2 Distribution based on FY2019 expectations
- Stable sales volume but higher proceeds and fair value step-up y-o-y.
- Ca. three quarters of the gross proceeds are attributable to Germany and the remaining one quarter to Austria.
- FV step-up improvement driven by disposals in Austria.
- Avg. sales prices up 9% y-o-y.
| Recurring Sales Segment (€m) | H1 2019 |
H1 2018 |
Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Units sold | 1,234 | 1,200 | +2.8% |
| Gross proceeds | 174.9 | 156.3 | +11.9% |
| Fair value | -124.5 | -114.5 | +8.7% |
| Adjusted earnings | 50.4 | 41.8 | +20.6% |
| Fair-value step-up | 40.5% | 36.5% | +400bps |
| Selling costs1 | -8.0 | -6.9 | +15.9% |
| Adj. EBITDA Recurring Sales | 42.4 | 34.9 | +21.5% |
1 Prior-year adjusted to exclude transaction corporate costs.
- This segment includes the contribution of to-sell and to-hold constructions of new buildings. Not included is the construction of new apartments by adding floors on top of existing buildings because this happens in the context of and is accounted for under modernization.
- Ca. three quarters of development-to-hold volume in H1 2019 was in Germany and the rest in Austria.
- Slightly more than half of H1 2019 development-to-sell volume in Austria and the rest in Germany.
| Development Segment (€m) | H1 2019 |
H1 2018 |
Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income from disposal of "to sell" properties |
124.9 | 73.5 | +69.9% |
| Cost of Development to sell |
-95.2 | -60.6 | +57.1% |
| Gross profit Development to sell |
29.7 | 12.9 | >100% |
| Fair value Development to hold |
103.8 | 25.5 | >100% |
| Cost of Development to hold | -86.1 | -22.8 | >100% |
| Gross profit Development to hold |
17.7 | 2.7 | >100% |
| Operating expenses Development segment | -16.7 | -7.7 | >100% |
| Adj. EBITDA Development | 30.7 | 7.9 | >100% |
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix New rental apartments for our own portfolio ("to hold") Vonovia's Contribution towards Reducing the Housing Shortage 11% 9% Under construction Short-term pipeline Longer-term pipeline 433 units completed in H1 2019 (including new units through floor Pipeline with ca. 29,000 apartments additions that are built in the context of and are accounted for under modernization investments and that are not included in the Development Segment). Total pipeline of ca. 29,000 units, of which more than 80% in Germany and the remainder in Austria and Sweden. Development Segment
- Average apartment size between 60-70 sqm and broadly in line with overall portfolio average.
-
The development to-hold investment volume is part of the overall investment program.
-
379 units completed in H1 2019.
- Total Pipeline volume of ca. €2.2bn (ca. 6,700 apartments), of which ca. 55% in Germany and ca. 45% in Austria.
- Investment capital for Development to sell is not part of investment program.
- Average apartment size between 70-80 sqm.
- Average investment volume of €4-4.5k per sqm.
- Expected gross margin between 20-25% on average.
2019 target: 1,500 – 2,000 completions
Pipeline with ca. 6,700 apartments
| Valuation KPIs | Vonovia | H1 2019 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2019 | Total | Germany | Sweden | Austria | Value growth drivers | €m | % | |
| In-place rent multiple |
22.3x | 22.7x | 16.0x1 | 24.1x1 | Performance3 | 754 | 2.4% | |
| Fair value | Investments 1,394 Yield compression |
279 | 0.9% | |||||
| €/sqm | 1,759 | 1,789 | 1,738 | 1,480 | 4.7% | |||
| Fair value €bn |
47.72 | 41.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | Total4 | 2,513 | 7.9% |
1 In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The data above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition. 2 Including €1.8bn for undeveloped land, inheritable building rights granted, assets under construction, development, IFRS16 and other. 3 Includes currency impact from value changes in Swedish Krona (-€56m) and IFRS16 (+€4m) impacts. 4 excl. €136m capitalized investments outside of revalued portfolio.
H1 2019 Earnings Call
Broad-based Value Growth across All German Regional Markets
H1 2019 Earnings Call
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Goodwill Impairment as a Result of Ongoing Value Growth
- The H1 2019 valuation led to a substantial increase of the investment properties.
- The valuation was classified as a triggering event and resulted in an impairment of €1.901m because the IAS 40 value growth increased the book value of the cash generating units (CGUs), thus decreasing the headroom to the earnings value of these cash generating units.
- The organizational restructuring of the rental segment from six to four regions as of July 1, 2019, brings with it an adjustment of the goodwill allocation, which in turn leads to an additional impairment of ca. €200m. This will be accounted for in the 9M financial accounts. Including this impact the remaining goodwill in the Rental Germany CGUs will be ca. €160m with the remaining goodwill of ca. €575m in the CGUs Sweden, Value-add and Development.
Evolution of adj. NAV and goodwill 12/2018 to 06/2019 (€bn)
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Adj. NAV Growth of +8.0% per share
- Adj. NAV increased by 13.1% to €26.3bn
- Adj. NAV per share increased by 8.0% on a 4.7% higher number of shares
- June 30, 2019, pro forma2 EPRA NAV of ca. €49.9
| €m (unless indicated otherwise) |
Jun 30, 2019 | Dec 31, 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity attributable to Vonovia's shareholders |
18,264.2 | 17,880.2 | |
| Deferred taxes on investment properties | 8,900.5 | 8,161.1 | |
| Fair value of derivative financial instruments1 | 103.2 | 87.2 | |
| Deferred taxes on derivative financial instruments | -27.3 | -23.5 | |
| EPRA NAV | 27,240.6 | 26,105.0 | |
| Goodwill | -935.6 | -2,842.4 | |
| Adj. NAV | 26,305.0 | 23,262.6 | +13.1% |
| EPRA NAV €/share | 50.23 | 50.39 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. NAV €/share | 48.51 | 44.90 | +8.0% |
| Number of shares (eop) |
542.3 | 518.1 |
1 Adjusted for effects from cross currency swaps. 2 Adjusted for expected impairment due to organizational restructuring.
Note: Per-share numbers are based on outstanding shares as of the reporting dates Jun. 30, 2019 (542.3m) and Dec. 31, 2018 (518.1m).
| LTV at Lower End of Target Range | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix |
- LTV as of June 30, 2019, was 40.4%; Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 was 11.2x.
- Against the background of the stable cash flows and the strong long-term fundamentals in our portfolio locations we see continued upside potential for our property values and do not see material long-term downside risks for our portfolio.
| €m (unless indicated otherwise) |
Jun 30, 2019 | Dec 31, 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Non-derivative financial liabilities | 20,526.4 | 20,136.0 |
| Foreign exchange rate effects | -34.9 | -33.5 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | -1,280.6 | -547.7 |
| Net debt | 19,210.9 | 19,554.8 |
| Sales receivables | 15.0 | -256.7 |
| Adj. net debt | 19,225.9 | 19,298.1 |
| Fair value of real estate portfolio | 47,449.0 | 44,239.9 |
| Shares in other real estate companies | 127.4 | 800.3 |
| Adj. fair value of real estate portfolio | 47,576.4 | 45,040.2 |
| LTV | 40.4% | 42.8% |
| LTV (incl. perpetual hybrid) | 42.5% | 45.1% |
| Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 | 11.2x | 11.4x |
1 Adj. net debt quarterly average over Total EBITDA (LTM); adj. for IFRS 16 effect.
Solid Capital Structure with Smooth Maturity Profile and Diverse Funding Mix
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KPI / criteria | Jun. 30, 2019 |
Dec. 31, 2018 |
||||
| • | Unwavering commitment to BBB+ | Corporate rating (S&P) | BBB+ | BBB+ | ||
| rating | LTV | 40.4% | 42.8% | |||
| debt/EBITDA multiple1 Net |
11.2x | 11.4x | ||||
| • | Maintain diverse funding mix to | ICR | 4.7x | 4.7x | ||
| Fixed/hedged debt | ratio2 | 97% | 96% | |||
| preserve best possible optionality | Average cost of | debt2 | 1.7% | 1.8% | ||
| LTV target range of 40%-45% • |
Weighted average maturity (years)2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | |||
| Unencumbered assets | 54% | 56% | ||||
1Adj. net debt quarterly average over Total EBITDA (LTM); adj. for IFRS 16 effect. 2Excl. equity hybrid.
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix European Activities
- Cautious step-by-step approach to minimize risk. Currently ca. 10% of the portfolio are located outside Germany. We will continue to monitor the German market and our defined European target markets in accordance with our acquisition criteria.
- Germany is expected to remain the dominant market also in the foreseeable future. No specific target rate or ratios in terms of German vs. non-German exposure but highly opportunistic approach as is the case for our German M&A activities.
| Austria (run a scalable business) |
Sweden (main focus) |
France (biggest long-term potential) |
The Netherlands (open for opportunities) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of total portfolio |
~6% | ~5% | Not meaningful | 0% |
| Next steps | • Gradual asset rotation via recurring sales of mature assets and development of new assets in a similar magnitude • Run scalable operating business • Follow accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis |
• Pursue accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis • Add Vonovia experience and skill set and use Victoria Park as a platform to further grow in the Swedish residential market • Demonstrate success and sustainability of Vonovia business model to show it also works outside of Germany |
• Utilize 10% stake in SNCF portfolio to gain more profound understanding of the market • Safeguard pole position and first-mover advantage for potential opening of social housing to commercial ownership • Continue to actively engage with relevant French players to seek opportunities for taking the next steps |
• Continue market research • Be prepared for accretive acquisition opportunities on an opportunistic basis |
| Highlights | 2019 Guidance Confirmed Segment Results NAV & Valuation |
Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Guidance | ||||||
| Organic rent growth (eop) | ~4.4% | |||||
| Rental Income (€m) | 2,020 | – 2,070 |
||||
| Recurring Sales (# of units) | ~2,500 | |||||
| FV step-up Recurring Sales | ~30% | |||||
| Adj. EBITDA Total (€m) | 1,700 – 1,750 |
|||||
| Group FFO (€m) | 1,165 – 1,215 |
|||||
| Group FFO (€/share) | 2.15 – 2.24 |
|||||
| Dividend | ~70% of Group FFO | |||||
| Modernization & New Construction (€m) | 1,300 | - 1,600 |
||||
| Underlying number of shares (million) | 542.3 |
IR Contact & Financial Calendar
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contact | Financial Calendar 2019 | |||||||
| Rene Hoffmann | Aug 2 | Interim results 6M 2019 | ||||||
| Head of Investor Relations | Aug 27 & 28 | Roadshow in Kopenhagen | & Helsinki (Hauck & Aufhäuser) | 1 | ||||
| Vonovia SE | Sep 10 | Roadshow Madrid (KeplerCheuvreux) | ||||||
| Universitätsstraße 133 44803 Bochum |
Sep 10 & 11 | Conference in New York (BAML) | ||||||
| Germany | Sep 16 | 1 Roadshow Vienna (KeplerCheuvreux) |
||||||
| Sep 20 | Conference in London (Société | Generale) | ||||||
| Sep 23 | Conference in Munich (Goldman Sachs / Berenberg) | |||||||
| +49 234 314 1629 | Sep 24 | Conference in Munich (Baader) 1 |
||||||
| [email protected] | [email protected] | Oct 15 – 18 |
Roadshow Asia in Tokyo, Seoul, Hongkong, Singapore (BAML) | |||||
| Nov 5 | Interim results 9M 2019 | |||||||
| Nov 6 | Roadshow Paris | |||||||
| App & Website | Nov 7 | Roadshow Amsterdam | ||||||
| Nov 8 | Roadshow Frankfurt | |||||||
| Nov 11 & 12 | Roadshow London | |||||||
| Nov 13 | Conference in London (UBS) | |||||||
| Nov 21 | Roadshow in Zurich | |||||||
| Dec 3 | Conference in London (UBS) | |||||||
| Dec 5 | Conference Pennyhill (Berenberg) |
|||||||
| Dec 12 & 13 | HSBC Real Estate Conference 2019 Cape Town | |||||||
https://investors.vonovia.de
The most up-to-date financial calendar is always available online.
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Appendix
| Strategy | 24 |
|---|---|
| Portfolio Evolution | 26 |
| Acquisition Track Record | 27 |
| Bond Data | 29 |
| Residential Market Data | 31 |
| Fair Value per sqm Evolution |
35 |
| VNA Shares | 36 |
| Management Compensation | 39 |
| Disclaimer | 42 |
4+1 Strategy Has Evolved into 4+2 Strategy
H1 2019 Earnings Call
1 Historic range. 2 CAGR since 2013 fair value uplift through performance and investments (excluding yield compression).
Vonovia location
High-influx cities ("Schwarmstädte"). For more information: http://investoren.vonovia.de/websites/vonovia/English/4050/financial-reports-_-presentations.html
Acquisitions – Opportunistic but Disciplined
Acquisitions are shown for all categories in the year the acquisition process started.
| Acquisition | Track Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix | |||
| Fair Value (€/sqm) | In-place rent (€/sqm) |
||||||||
| Year | Deal | Residential units # |
TOP Locations | @ Acquisition | Jun 30, 2019 |
∆ | @ Acquisition | Jun 30, 2019 |
∆ |
| 2014 | DEWAG | 11,300 | Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt/Main |
1,344 | 2,341 | 74% | 6.76 | 8.00 | 18% |
| VITUS | 20,500 | Bremen, Kiel | 807 | 1,470 | 82% | 5.06 | 5.91 | 17% | |
| GAGFAH | 144,600 | Dresden, Berlin, Hamburg |
889 | 1,729 | 95% | 5.40 | 6.43 | 19% | |
| 2015 | FRANCONIA | 4,100 | Berlin, Dresden | 1,044 | 2,009 | 92% | 5.82 | 6.78 | 17% |
| SÜDEWO | 19,400 | Stuttgart, Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Ulm |
1,380 | 2,062 | 49% | 6.83 | 7.55 | 11% | |
| 2016 | GRAINGER | 2,400 | Munich, Mannheim | 1,501 | 2,309 | 54% | 7.09 | 8.01 | 13% |
| CONWERT (Germany & Austria) |
23,400 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam, Vienna |
1,353 | 1,926 | 42% | 5.88 | 6.43 | 9% | |
| thereof Germany | 21,200 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam | 1,218 | 1,820 | 49% | 5.86 | 6.38 | 9% |
thereof Austria 2,200 Vienna 1,986 2,484 25% 6.11 6.84 12%
PROIMMO 1,000 Hanover 1,617 1,791 11% 6.63 6.88 4%
Villach 1,244 1,434 15%
Gothenburg 1,462 1,738 19%
5.10 5.33 4%
5.96 6.32 6%
4.21 4.38 4%
9.20 4%
8.83
Note: Excluding smaller tactical acquisitions.
BUWOG
VICTORIA PARK
(Germany & Austria) 48,300 Berlin, Lübeck, Vienna,
(Sweden) 14,000 Stockholm, Malmö,
Total 289,000
2017
2018
thereof Germany 27,000 Berlin, Lübeck, Kiel 1,330 1,645 24%
thereof Austria 21,300 Vienna, Villach, Graz 1,157 1,234 7%
| Covenants and KPIs (June 30, 2019) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix |
| Bond KPIs | Covenant | Level | June 30, 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTV | <60% | 40% | |
| Total Debt / Total Assets | |||
| Secured LTV | <45% | 13% | |
| Secured Debt / Total Assets |
|||
| ICR | 4.7x | ||
| Last 12M EBITDA / Last 12M Interest Expense |
>1.80x | ||
| Unencumbered Assets |
>125% | 205% | |
| Unencumbered Assets / Unsecured Debt |
| Rating KPIs | Covenant | Level (BBB+) |
|---|---|---|
| Debt to Capital Total Debt / (Total Equity + Total Debt) |
<60% | |
| ICR Last 12M EBITDA / Last 12M Interest Expense |
Bonds / Rating
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Corporate investment grade rating
| Rating agency | Rating | Outlook | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor's | BBB+ | Stable | 08 May 2019 |
Bond ratings
| Name | Tenor & Coupon | ISIN | Amount | Issue price | Coupon | Final Maturity Date |
Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bond 002 (EUR-Bond) | 6 years 3.125% | DE000A1HNW52 | € 600m |
99.935% | 3.125% | repaid on 25 July 2019 |
BBB+ |
| Bond 004 (USD-Bond) | 10 years 5.000% |
US25155FAB22 | USD 250m | 98.993% | 4.580%1 | 02 Oct 2023 |
BBB+ |
| Bond 005 (EMTN) | 8 years 3.625% | DE000A1HRVD5 | € 500m |
99.843% | 3.625% | 08 Oct 2021 | BBB+ |
| Bond 007 (EMTN) | 8 years 2.125% |
DE000A1ZLUN1 | € 500m |
99.412% | 2.125% | 09 July 2022 |
BBB+ |
| Bond 008 (Hybrid) | perpetual 4% | XS1117300837 | € 1,000m |
100.000% | 4.000% | perpetual | BBB |
| Bond 009A (EMTN) | 5 years 0.875% | DE000A1ZY971 | € 500m |
99.263% | 0.875% | 30 Mar 2020 | BBB+ |
| Bond 009B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% |
DE000A1ZY989 | € 500m |
98.455% | 1.5000% | 31 Mar 2025 | BBB+ |
| Bond 010B (EMTN) | 5 years 1.625% | DE000A18V138 | € 1,250m |
99.852% | 1.625% | 15 Dec 2020 | BBB+ |
| Bond 010C (EMTN) | 8 years 2.250% | DE000A18V146 | € 1,000m |
99.085% | 2.2500% | 15 Dec 2023 | BBB+ |
| Bond 011A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.875% |
DE000A182VS4 | € 500m |
99.530% | 0.875% | 10 Jun 2022 | BBB+ |
| Bond 011B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% |
DE000A182VT2 | € 500m |
99.165% | 1.5000% | 10 Jun 2026 | BBB+ |
| Bond 013 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.250% | DE000A189ZX0 | € 1,000m |
99.037% | 1.250% | 06 Dec 2024 | BBB+ |
| Bond 014A (EMTN) | 5 years 0.750% | DE000A19B8D4 | € 500m |
99.863% | 0.750% | 25 Jan 2022 | BBB+ |
| Bond 014B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.750% |
DE000A19B8E2 | € 500m |
99.266% | 1.750% | 25 Jan 2027 | BBB+ |
| Bond 015 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.125% | DE000A19NS93 | € 500m |
99.386% | 1.125% | 08 Sep 2025 | BBB+ |
| Bond 016 (EMTN) | 2 years 3M EURIBOR+0.350% |
DE000A19SE11 | € 500m |
100.448% | 3M EURIBOR+0.350% | 20 Nov 2019 | BBB+ |
| Bond 017A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.750% | DE000A19UR61 | € 500m |
99.330% | 0.750% | 15 Jan 2024 | BBB+ |
| Bond 017B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% |
DE000A19UR79 | € 500m |
99.439% | 1.500% | 14 Jan 2028 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018A (EMTN) | 4.75 years 3M EURIBOR+0.450% |
DE000A19X793 | € 600m |
100.000% | 0.793% hedged | 22 Dec 2022 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018B (EMTN) | 8 years 1.500% | DE000A19X8A4 | € 500m |
99.188% | 1.500% | 22 Mar 2026 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018C (EMTN) | 12 years 2.125% | DE000A19X8B2 | € 500m |
98.967% | 2.125% | 22 Mar 2030 | BBB+ |
| Bond 018D (EMTN) | 20 years 2.750% |
DE000A19X8C0 | € 500m |
97.896% | 2.750% | 22 Mar 2038 | BBB+ |
| Bond 019 (EMTN) | 5 years 0.875% | DE000A192ZH7 | € 500m |
99.437% | 0.875% | 03 Jul 2023 | BBB+ |
| Bond 020 (EMTN) | 6.5 years 1.800% | DE000A2RWZZ6 | € 500m |
99.836% | 1.800% | 29 Jun 2025 | BBB+ |
1 EUR-equivalent Coupon
In regulated markets like Germany, rent growth is on a sustainable upward trajectory and largely independent from
GDP developments
In unregulated markets like the USA, rents go up and down broadly in line with the GDP development
Sources: Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners), REIS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD. Note: Due to lack of q-o-q US rent growth data, the annual rent growth for a year is assumed to also be the q-o-q rent growth of that year.
Residential Market Fundamentals
Completions Substantially below Required Volumes
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix
Note: VNA 2010 – 2014 refers to Deutsche Annington Portfolio at the time; construction costs excluding land. The land value refers to the share of total fair value allocated to land. Allocation between building and land in Sweden assumed to be similar to Germany.
H1 2019 Earnings Call
Residential Market Fundamentals
Housing Affordability and Urbanization
Population living in urban areas (%)
1 Share of disposable household income spent on housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
Sources: Eurostat, United Nations
Distribution of household sizes (million) 15.0 2.3 2.3 Amateur landlords Professional, not listed Government owned Ownership structure (million units) 15.4 5.2 4.9 4.0 4.4 40.1 43.2 41.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 4 persons 5 or more persons
- While the overall population in Germany is expected to slightly decline, the number of households is forecast to grow until at least 2035 with a clear trend towards smaller households.
- The household growth is driven by various demographic and social trends including divorce rates, employment mobility etc.
15.8 17.3 19.0
2008 2018 2035E
14.0
Cooperatives
Listed property companies
Churches and other
- Germany is the largest housing market in Europe with ~42m housing units, of which ~23m are rental units.
- Ownership structure is highly fragmented and majority of owners are non-professional landlords.
2.1
0.9
0.6
Listed sector represents ~4% of total rental market.
3 persons
1 person 2 persons
13.6
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Residential Market Fundamentals (Germany) Household Sizes and Ownership Structure Growing number of smaller households Fragmented ownership structure
Liquid Large-cap Stock
VNA share price performance since IPO vs. DAX and EPRA Europe Index
Vonovia History
- Seed portfolios of today's Vonovia have origin in public housing provided by government, large employers and similar landlords with a view towards offering affordable housing.
- At beginning of last decade, private equity invested in German residential on a large scale including into what is Vonovia today (mainly Deutsche Annington and Gagfah then).
- IPO in 2013.
- Final exit of private equity in 2014.
0 5 10 15 20 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Average market cap (Euro bn) VWAP (Euro/share) Average market cap (Euro bn) VWAP (Euro/share) Share price and market capitalization DAX MSCI inclusion inclusion Stoxx 600 inclusion Südewo acq. (20k units) MDAX inclusion S-DAX inclusion DeWAG & Vitus acq. (41k units) Gagfah acq. (140k units) conwert acq. (24k units) Announcement cooperation with French CDC Habitat (former "SNI") Announcement Buwog (48k units) Takeover Offer Victoria Park (14k units)
Source: Factset, company data
Reconciliation of Shares Outstanding
| Highlights Segment Results |
NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV European Activities |
Guidance | Appendix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | NOSH (million) |
Comment | ||
| December 31, 2016 | 466.0 | |||
| March 31, 2017 |
468.8 | conwert acquisition | ||
| June 30, 2017 | 476.5 | Scrip dividend | ||
| September 30, 2017 | 485.1 | Gagfah cross-border merger |
||
| December 31, 2017 | 485.1 | |||
| March 31, 2018 | 485.1 | |||
| June 30, 2018 |
518.1 | €1bn ABB in 05/2018; | scrip dividend | |
| September 30, 2018 | 518.1 | |||
| December 31, 2018 | 518.1 | |||
| March 31, 2019 | 518.1 | |||
| June 30, 2019 |
542,3 | €744m ABB in 05/2019; scrip | dividend |
The number of outstanding shares is always available at https://investoren.vonovia.de/websites/vonovia/English/2010/basic-information.html
Management Board Compensation - Overview
Highlights Segment Results NAV & Valuation Financing & LTV European Activities Guidance Appendix Fixed Remuneration (incl. Pension) Bonus / STIP LTIP • Criteria/Targets: Group FFO, adj. NAV/share, adj. EBITDA Total, personal targets agreed with SVB • Bonus Cap at predetermined amount • Payout: Cash • Annually granted remuneration component in the form of virtual shares • Criteria/Targets: relative TSR, adj. NAV/share, Group FFO/share, Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) • Performance Period: 4 years • Payout: Cash • Cap: 250% of grant value • Monthly fixed compensation paid in 12 equal installments • Annual pension contribution (alternative: cash payout) Management Board compensation is based on three pillars
Share Holding Provision
- Mandatory share ownership
-
100% of annual fixed remuneration (excl. pension) (accumulation on a pro rata basis during first 4 years)
-
Bonus cap at predetermined amount
-
Cash payout
-
Group FFO is the key figure for managing the sustained operational earnings power of our business.
- Adj. NAV/share as standard figure for the value of our property assets (calculation according to EPRA best practice standards, after corrections for goodwill).
- Adj. EBITDA Total: aggregate EBITDA across the four segments, reflecting the sustainable earnings strength of the business before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
-
Personal targets related to individual department responsibilities or overlapping targets (e.g. integration projects).
-
LTIP aims to ensure that remuneration structure focuses on sustainable corporate development.
- Relative TSR is from an investor perspective a well-established and accepted performance measure, focusing on share return, relative to a selected peer group. Hence, it is adequate for comparison with relevant competitors.
- Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI): Based on customer surveys and reflects how our services are perceived and accepted by our customers.
- Shareholder alignment safeguarded by (i) relative performance targets (Group FFO/share and Adj. NAV/share) as well as (ii) calculation method which takes actual share price performance into account.
This presentation has been specifically prepared by Vonovia SE and/or its affiliates (together, "Vonovia") for internal use. Consequently, it may not be sufficient or appropriate for the purpose for which a third party might use it.
This presentation has been provided for information purposes only and is being circulated on a confidential basis. This presentation shall be used only in accordance with applicable law, e.g. regarding national and international insider dealing rules, and must not be distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part, nor may its contents be disclosed by the recipient to any other person. Receipt of this presentation constitutes an express agreement to be bound by such confidentiality and the other terms set out herein.
This presentation includes statements, estimates, opinions and projections with respect to anticipated future performance of Vonovia ("forward-looking statements") which reflect various assumptions concerning anticipated results taken from Vonovia's current business plan or from public sources which have not been independently verified or assessed by Vonovia and which may or may not prove to be correct. Any forward-looking statements reflect current expectations based on the current business plan and various other assumptions and involve significant risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. Any forward-looking statements only speak as at the date the presentation is provided to the recipient. It is up to the recipient of this presentation to make its own assessment of the validity of any forward-looking statements and assumptions and no liability is accepted by Vonovia in respect of the achievement of such forward-looking statements and assumptions.
Vonovia accepts no liability whatsoever to the extent permitted by applicable law for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or penalty arising from any use of this presentation, its contents or preparation or otherwise in connection with it.
No representation or warranty (whether express or implied) is given in respect of any information in this presentation or that this presentation is suitable for the recipient's purposes. The delivery of this presentation does not imply that the information herein is correct as at any time subsequent to the date hereof.
Vonovia has no obligation whatsoever to update or revise any of the information, forward-looking statements or the conclusions contained herein or to reflect new events or circumstances or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent subsequent to the date hereof.
This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
This presentation is neither an advertisement nor a prospectus and is made available on the express understanding that it does not contain all information that may be required to evaluate, and will not be used by the attendees/recipients in connection with, the purchase of or investment in any securities of the Company. This presentation is selective in nature and does not purport to contain all information that may be required to evaluate the Company and/or its securities. No reliance may or should be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness.
This presentation is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.
Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it may be taken, transmitted or distributed directly or indirectly into or within the United States, its territories or possessions. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The securities of the Company have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Consequently, the securities of the Company may not be offered, sold, resold, transferred, delivered or distributed, directly or indirectly, into or within in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in compliance with any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States unless registered under the Securities Act.
Tables and diagrams may include rounding effects.
| For Your Notes |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix |
| For Your Notes |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlights | Segment Results | NAV & Valuation | Financing & LTV | European Activities | Guidance | Appendix |