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TGS ASA — Earnings Release 2023
Oct 26, 2023
3774_rns_2023-10-26_3fa4af87-5f57-4dad-97ed-1060d8a3b455.pdf
Earnings Release
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OCTOBER 26, 2023
EARNINGS RELEASE
Q3 2023 Results
Kristian Johansen, CEO / Sven Børre Larsen, CFO OSLO, NORWAY
Forward-Looking Statements
All statements in this presentation other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict and are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove accurate. These factors include volatile market conditions, investment opportunities in new and existing markets, demand for licensing of data within the energy industry, operational challenges, and reliance on a cyclical industry and principal customers. Actual results may differ materially from those expected or projected in the forward-looking statements. TGS undertakes no responsibility or obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements for any reason.
Q3 2023 - Delivering on all parameters
Continued strong Early Sales momentum 129% y/y
Late sales recovery
11% y/y
Acquisition best quarter ever 27% y/y
DES continuing progress
41% y/y
Strong operational performance and cost control EBIT 23%
Solid cash flow
FCF \$45 million
Q3 2023
Financial Highlights
Total POC revenues of USD 293 million compared to USD 119 million in Q3 2022
- Late sales of USD 72 million in Q3 2023 vs. USD 65 million in Q3 2022
- POC Early sales of USD 88 million compared to USD 39 million in Q3 2022
- Proprietary revenues of USD 133 million where the Acquisition business unit contributed with USD 126 million
POC EBITDA of USD 170 million compared to USD 80 million in Q3 2022
Positive momentum in POC revenues driven by strong growth in both multi-client sales and Acquisition contract revenues
Solid contract inflow with USD 355 million of new contracts signed in the quarter
POC backlog including Acquisition of USD 475 million
Q3 YTD - POC revenues (pro-forma*)
* Including Magseis Fairfield
EARNINGS RELEASE
Operational Highlights
Q3 2023
Gulf of Mexico OBN Contracts Secured
- Muli-year contract with super-major
- TGS secures a 3-year frame agreement with a major producer for OBN in the Gulf of Mexico
- First OBN survey commencing in Q2 2024
- Enabler for innovation, service quality, and technology deployment
- Anticipating continued high activity and additional projects over the 3 years
- New contract for a repeat customer
7
- Project acquisition: Q4 2023 Q1 2024
- OBN acquisition integral for better seismic data quality
High data acquisition activity level during Q3 2023
PGS transaction update
- Merger agreement and merger plan signed
- Extra-ordinary General Meetings late November in both companies
- Six weeks creditor notice period following EGM approvals
- Regulatory approvals pending
- Estimated closing first half of 2024
Substantial synergy potential in PGS transaction
Preliminary synergy estimate
- Preliminary synergy estimate of approximately USD 100 million (ex. tax)
- Operating costs
- Updated estimate of USD 60-70 million
- Previous indication of "above USD 50 million"
- Fleet utilization
- Analysis of combined historical vessel need suggest 2-3% higher utilization rate
- Value of USD 15-20 million p.a.
- Debt cost
- PGS bond yield reduced almost 3.5% after announcement
- Potential annual saving of USD 15-20 million p.a. long-term
- Additional savings from deferred tax assets
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- Related to corporate and admin costs, office leases, software costs, data management, high-performance computing, source vessels etc.
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- Assuming 2-3% higher fleet utilization rate from TGS MC projects
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- Assuming 3-4% lower interest rate on USD 500m of gross debt
EARNINGS RELEASE
Financials
Q3 2023
POC revenues by type
Proprietary Sales Revenue Total Revenue
POC revenues by business unit
Acquisition Total Revenue
Operating costs and POC EBITDA
Other Operating Costs POC EBITDA
Amortization, depreciation and POC EBIT
POC Operating Result Multi-Client Investments and Early Sales Rate
Bridge POC revenues to IFRS revenues
IFRS - profit & loss
| (MUSD) | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Change | YTD 2023 | YTD 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Sales | 21.0 | 55.3 | -62% | 94.1 | 234.4 | -60% |
| Late Sales | 71.9 | 64.5 | 11% | 179.9 | 237.5 | -24% |
| Proprietary Sales | 132.5 | 15.5 | 755% | 330.9 | 25.7 | 1190% |
| Total revenues | 225.4 | 135.3 | 67% | 604.9 | 497.6 | 22% |
| Cost of goods sold | 71.5 | 7.7 | 826% | 192.8 | 10.5 | 1741% |
| Personnel cost | 34.4 | 17.9 | 93% | 99.4 | 56.5 | 76% |
| Other operational costs | 17.0 | 12.7 | 33% | 49.5 | 35.4 | 40% |
| EBITDA | 102.6 | 97.0 | 6% | 263.2 | 395.3 | -33% |
| Straight-line amortization | 41.4 | 39.0 | 6% | 120.6 | 114.8 | 5% |
| Accelerated amortization | 9.3 | 42.0 | -78% | 35.3 | 187.8 | -81% |
| Impairments | 4.7 | 8.8 | -47% | 6.3 | 10.2 | -39% |
| Depreciation | 20.9 | 6.1 | 245% | 58.6 | 16.4 | 258% |
| Operating result | 26.2 | 1.1 | 2187% | 42.3 | 66.1 | -36% |
| Financial income | 1.6 | 0.7 | 130% | 5.1 | 1.8 | 190% |
| Financial expenses | -2.0 | -0.8 | 149% | -11.9 | -5.3 | 124% |
| Exchange gains/losses | 1.0 | -3.3 | -131% | 0.3 | -3.1 | -110% |
| Gains/(losses) from JV | 1.8 | 0.0 | n/a | 0.5 | 0.0 | n/a |
| Result before taxes | 28.5 | -2.3 | -1331% | 36.3 | 59.5 | -39% |
| Tax cost | 11.7 | -0.6 | -2127% | 5.6 | 14.9 | -62% |
| Net income | 16.8 | -1.7 | -1066% | 30.7 | 44.6 | -31% |
| EPS (USD) | 0.13 | -0.02 | 0.25 | 0.38 | ||
| EPS fully diluted (USD) | 0.13 | -0.02 | 0.24 | 0.38 |
IFRS - balance sheet
| (MUSD) | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill | 384.6 | 384.6 | 0% | 384.6 |
| Multi-client library | 745.0 | 687.3 | 8% | 575.3 |
| Deferred tax asset | 90.1 | 92.7 | -3% | 82.2 |
| Right-of-use assets | 54.7 | 66.7 | -18% | 59.6 |
| Other non-current assets | 226.9 | 229.5 | -1% | 223.3 |
| Total non-current assets | 1,501.3 | 1,460.9 | 3% | 1,325.1 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 200.2 | 143.9 | 39% | 188.5 |
| Accounts receivable and accrued revenues | 256.5 | 246.6 | 4% | 240.3 |
| Other current assets | 106.1 | 100.5 | 6% | 85.0 |
| Total current assets | 562.8 | 491.0 | 15% | 562.8 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 2,064.1 | 1,951.9 | 6% | 2,064.1 |
| Total equity | 1,301.8 | 1,215.1 | 7% | 1,239.8 |
| Deferred tax liability | 21.7 | 21.7 | 0% | 23.1 |
| Lease liability | 30.9 | 34.6 | -10% | 28.6 |
| Non-current liabilities | 45.1 | 91.9 | -51% | 42.4 |
| Total non-current liabilities | 97.8 | 148.2 | -34% | |
| Taxes payable, withheld payroll tax, social security and VAT | 72.0 | 69.7 | 3% | 77.2 |
| Lease liability | 30.5 | 39.3 | -22% | 38.3 |
| Deferred revenue | 279.6 | 180.6 | 55% | 126.5 |
| Other current liabilities | 282.5 | 299.0 | -6% | 263.0 |
| Total current liabilities | 664.5 | 588.6 | 13% | 505.0 |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | 2,064.1 | 1,951.9 | 6% | 1,838.9 |
IFRS - cash flow
| (MUSD) | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | Change | YTD 2023 | YTD 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow from operating activities: | ||||||
| Profit before taxes | 28.5 | -2.3 | -1331% | 36.3 | 59.5 | -39% |
| Depreciation/amortization/impairment | 76.4 | 95.9 | -20% | 220.8 | 329.2 | -33% |
| Changes in accounts receivable and accrued | ||||||
| revenues | -9.9 | 19.1 | -152% | -16.1 | -19.0 | -15% |
| Changes in other receivables | -7.2 | 0.1 | -6976% | -15.3 | 37.1 | -141% |
| Changes in other balance sheet items | 122.7 | -66.3 | -285% | 234.4 | -169.9 | -238% |
| Paid taxes | -8.1 | -5.0 | 60% | -23.0 | -13.0 | 77% |
| Net cash flow from operating activities | 202.5 | 41.4 | 389% | 437.1 | 223.9 | 95% |
| Cash flow from investing activities: | ||||||
| Investments in tangible and intangible assets | -12.3 | -5.0 | 146% | -37.1 | -14.8 | 151% |
| Investments in multi-client library | -146.7 | -30.9 | 375% | -288.3 | -123.0 | 134% |
| Investments through mergers and acquisitions | 0.0 | -41.1 | -100% | 0.0 | -41.1 | -100% |
| Interest received | 1.3 | 0.7 | 86% | 4.5 | 1.8 | 154% |
| Net cash flow from investing activities | -157.7 | -76.4 | 107% | -320.9 | -177.2 | 81% |
| Cash flow from financing activities activities: | ||||||
| Net change in short term loans | -45.0 | 0.0 | n/a | -44.7 | 0.0 | n/a |
| Interest paid | -1.6 | -0.8 | 94% | -5.4 | -2.4 | 126% |
| Dividend payments | -17.4 | -16.0 | 9% | -52.5 | -48.7 | 8% |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -11.5 | -3.1 | 271% | -33.6 | -8.9 | 278% |
| Acquisition of shares | 0.0 | 0.0 | n/a | -54.4 | 0.0 | n/a |
| Paid in equity | 86.6 | 0.0 | n/a | 86.6 | 0.0 | n/a |
| Repurchase of shares | 0.0 | -4.5 | -100% | 0.0 | -7.0 | -100% |
| Net cash flow from financing activities | 11.1 | -24.4 | -145% | -104.1 | -67.0 | 55% |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents | 55.9 | -59.4 | -194% | 12.1 | -20.3 | -160% |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of period | 143.9 | 254.7 | -43% | 188.5 | 215.3 | -12% |
| Net unrealized currency gains/(losses) | 0.4 | -3.0 | -114% | -0.3 | -2.8 | -87% |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period | 200.2 | 192.3 | 4% | 200.2 | 192.3 | 4% |
Dividends
The Board has resolved to maintain the dividend of USD 0.14 per share for Q4 2023
• Ex date 2 November 2023 – payment date 16 November 2023
TGS has returned more than USD 1.4 bn to shareholders through dividends and buybacks since 2010
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Quarterly dividends defined in USD from 2016. Annual dividends defined in NOK prior to 2016, converted to USD with the FX rate at ex-dividend dates
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Average yield at the time of announcement of dividends
EARNINGS RELEASE
Outlook
Q3 2023
More oil and gas needed to meet long-term energy demand
Estimated 2050 oil and gas share of primary energy demand
Tight oil market in the short-term
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23E Q1 24E Q2 24E Q3 24E Q4 24E Change mbbl/day
World liquid fules stock build/(draw)
US commercial crude oil stocks
Shaded area indicate high and low in the period from 2018 to 2022
Acquisition activity plan
Contract backlog & inflow
Contract Backlog
Timing of expected recognition of Early Sales backlog
Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 H2 2024+
Early Sales backlog accounts for USD 475 million of the total backlog
License Round Activity
NORTH AMERICA
Canada:
- Newfoundland Q4 2023 (close)
- Nova Scotia Q3 2023 (close)
US GOM:
• Lease Sale 261 – Q4 2023 (close)
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil:
• Permanent Offer 4 – Q4 2023 (close)
Suriname:
• Shallow Water – H1 2024 (close)
Guyana:
• Offshore – Q3 2023 (close)
Barbados:
• Offshore – H2 2024 (close)
Trinidad:
• Shallow Water Round – Q4 23 (open)
Uruguay:
• Open Round – May and Nov (annual)
Argentina:
• Offshore Round 2 – 2024 (open)
EUROPE
Norway:
• 2023 APA Round – Q1 2024 (award) • 2024 APA Round – Q2 2024 (open)
UK: • 33rd UK Offshore Round – Q4 2023 (award)
Overview is showing scheduled rounds only and is not exhaustive. Several countries, particularly in Africa and Latin America, are planning rounds over the next couple of years
AFRICA
Angola:
- 2023 round 8 blocks
- 2025 round 10 blocks
- Out of Round direct awards legally decreed
Egypt:
- Ganope Round Feb 2024 (close)
- Gabon:
Ghana:
• Open Door for available blocks and farm-in
Liberia: • Open Door – indefinite end
Nigeria: • Licensing round schedule being planned
Mozambique: • Unawarded Blocks available for direct award
Senegal:
• Open Door – LR after elections - Feb 2024
Sierra Leone:
Somalia:
• Announced but now rescinded – LR in 2024.
ASIA - PACIFIC
Australia:
- 2023 CCS Acreage Release Nov 2023 (close)
- 2021 & 2022 Acreage Release award not yet announced
India:
• Bid Round IX ongoing
Indonesia:
• 2023 2nd round – Nov 2023 (close)
Malaysia:
- 2023 MBR Dec 2023 (awards)
- 2024 MBR Jan 2024 (open)
Bangladesh:
• Offshore round - expected Q1 2024
Increasing multi-client investment guidance
- 2023 multi-client investments expected to be approximately USD 400 million
- Previous guidance "more than USD 350 million"
- 2023 Early sales rate expected to be above 75%
- Previous guidance "minimum 70%"
Q3 2023
Summary
Total POC revenues of USD 293 million compared to USD 119 million in Q3 2022
POC EBITDA of USD 170 million compared to USD 80 million in Q3 2022
Positive momentum in POC revenues driven by strong growth in both multi-client sales and Acquisition contract revenues
Merger agreement with PGS signed – closing expected late Q1 or early Q2 2024
Continued growth in exploration spending expected
TGS well positioned to benefit with leading position in all segments
Thank you
TGS.com