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Telefonica S.A. — Earnings Release 2018
Dec 31, 2018
1889_ip_2018-12-31_6836578a-5440-4df0-9349-6a564ffb8b63.pdf
Earnings Release
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Disclaimer
This document and the Q&A session may contain forward-looking statements and information (hereinafter, the "Statements") relating to the Telefónica Group (hereinafter, the "Company" or "Telefónica") or otherwise. These Statements may include financial forecasts and estimates based on assumptions or statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations that make reference to different matters, such as the customer base and its evolution, growth of the different business lines and of the global business, market share, possible acquisitions, divestitures or other transactions, Company's results and other aspects related to the activity and situation of the Company.
The Statements can be identified, in certain cases, through the use of words such as "forecast", "expectation", "anticipation", "aspiration", "purpose", "belief" or similar expressions or variations of such expressions. These Statements reflect the current views of Telefónica with respect to future events, do not represent, by their own nature, any guarantee of future fulfilment, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such Statements. These risks and uncertainties include those identified in the documents containing more comprehensive information filed by Telefónica before the different supervisory authorities of the securities markets in which its shares are listed and, in particular, the Spanish National Securities Market Commission.
Except as required by applicable law, Telefónica does not assume any obligation to publicly update the Statements to adapt them to events or circumstances taking place after the date hereof, including changes in the Company's business, in its business development strategy or any other unexpected circumstance.
This document and the Q&A session may contain summarized, non-audited or non-GAAP financial information. The information contained herein and therein should therefore be considered as a whole and in conjunction with all the public information regarding the Company available, including, if any, other documents released by the Company that may contain more detailed information.
In October 2015, the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) published guidelines on Alternative Performance Measures (APM), applicable to regulated information published from July 3, 2016. Information related to APM used in this presentation are included in our consolidated financial statements and consolidated management report for the year 2018 submitted to the Spanish National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), in Note 2, page 17 of the .pdf filed. Recipients of this document are invited to read it.
Neither this document nor the Q&A session nor any of their contents constitute an offer to purchase, sale or exchange any security, a solicitation of any offer to purchase, sale or exchange any security, or a recommendation or advice regarding any security.
2018 Highlights 2019 Outlook
Mr. José Mª Álvarez-Pallete Chairman & CEO
2018 Highlights
| Gaining customers' relevance | Transforming our revenue mix | Investing to reinforce our platforms |
|---|---|---|
| Top digital customer experience, best technology at their service Demand for FFTx/Cable, LTE, Pay TV unabated Increasing customer lifetime = providing business sustainability |
Radical transformation in demand from voice to data Increasing weight of high growing revenues (BB and SoC) Created several unicorns |
Best technological platforms at the service of our customers' needs At the forefront of technology Pioneers in digitalisation, simplification, virtualisation & AI |
| Growth (sustainable & profitable) | Strengthening financial position | Dividends (sustainable & attractive) |
| Accelerating our growth path Robust and sustainable FCF Efficient use of investment resources for sustainable growth |
rd 3 straight year of net debt decline Organic deleverage driven by FCF Reshaping our asset's portfolio via ROCE-driven inorganic actions |
Returned value to shareholders Reinforced balance sheet Investment grade credit rating |
2018 proof points backing up our strategy
y-o-y organic variations
DESPITE TOUGH REGULATION
Last 4 years: organic growth; growing cash; reducing debt
€m
FCF ex-spectrum
Financials in a nutshell
| FY 18 | Q4 18 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported | Reported | Organic | Reported | Reported | Organic | ||
| € in millions | IFRS 15&9 | y-o-y | y-o-y | IFRS 15&9 | y-o-y | y-o-y | |
| Revenues | 48,693 | (6.4%) | 2.4% | 12,917 | (1.9%) | 3.0% | Profitable Growth |
| Service revenues | 43,585 | (8.9%) | 1.0% | 11,275 | (5.1%) | 1.3% | |
| OIBDA Underlying | 15,813 | (5.0%) | 4,008 | (5.2%) | |||
| OIBDA | 15,571 | (3.8%) | 3.5% | 3,537 | (9.6%) | 2.4% | |
| OIBDA margin | 32.0% | 0.9 p.p. | 0.3 p.p. | 27.4% | (2.3 p.p.) | (0.2 p.p). | |
| OpCF (ex-spectrum) | 8,320 | 3.6% | 8.0% | 1,354 | 11.6% | 31.1% | Double-digit OpCF growth |
| Net Income | 3,331 | 6.4% | 610 | (11.9%) | |||
| EPS (€) | 0.57 | 2.2% | 0.11 | (11.9%) | |||
| FCF | 4,904 | (0.9%) | 1,947 | 13.1% | FCF boost | ||
| FCF (ex-spectrum) | 5,578 | 5.3% | 1,987 | 14.1% | |||
| Net Financial Debt | 41,785 | (5.5%) | Further ND decline |
Reported headlines reflect
- FX swings & regulation
- Hyperinflation in Argentina in Q4 & FY 18: Revs. (+€305m; -€313m), OIBDA (+€80m; -€148m) & N. Income (-€46m; -€305m)
- Other special factors in Q4 & FY 18: (OIBDA: Q4: -€552m; FY: -€93m; N. Income Q4: -€606m; FY: -€811m)
Delivering on our commitments
| Operating 2018 guidance (organic) |
Upgraded Guidance 2018 |
FY 18 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | Growth of around 2% (despite regulation dragging: ~-0.9 p.p.) |
+2.4% | ||
| OIBDA Margin | Continues expanding around 0.5 p.p. (despite regulation dragging ~-1.6 p.p. on OIBDA growth) |
+0.3 p.p. |
||
| CAPEX ex-spectrum/Sales |
Around 15% |
15.1 % |
||
| Additional Attractive, stable |
Solid balance sheet deleveraging Improved ROCE & sustainable dividend |
|||
| Dividends to be paid in 2018 calendar yr. €0.40/sh. | 2018 DIVIDEND | €0.4/SH. CASH | ||
| Cash: 15/Jun/18 €0.20/sh. | Interim Dec-18 | €0.20/sh. | ||
| Cash: 20/Dec/18 €0.20/sh. | Final Jun-19 | €0.20/sh. |
Our platforms make us relevant to our customers
Open APIs <<<<<<<<<<<<<<
FY & Q4 18 Results
Mr. Ángel Vilá COO
Ongoing strong momentum
Sequential improvement in Revenues & OpCF
- +30 bps revs. acceleration
- Services revs. (+10 bps.); mainly Brazil + Spain
- Handsets sales (+20bps)
- Both Latam and Europe revs. ramping-up
- 60 bps Europe
- 40 bps Latam
- Q4 revs. €12.9bn (€11.7bn Q3)
- Outstanding Q4 OpCF (+27.1 p.p. q-o-q)
- Sustained OIBDA (Q4:+2.4%)
Revenues
y-o-y organic
OpCF (ex-spectrum)
B2C | Enriched portfolio, video and data boost growth
Growth across regions in 2018
- New offers developed in convergent markets
- "M4M" new Fusión portfolio (SP Oct-18)
- Pay TV launch (ARG Oct-18)
- First convergent offer (PER Jan-19)
- Netflix available (CHI, COL, ECU, UK, SP)
- Prepaid growth with integrated data
- Integrated recurrent plans in all Latam (ex-MEX)
- New features foster upsell and engagement (BRA)
- Mobile post-paid, flexible & personalised
- "M4M" strategy (data & content) (COL, BRA, SP)
- "Movistar Play" (OTT) in Latam; increasing loyalty
- Family plans (ARG, UK, BRA, CHI, GER)
- Flexible tariffs (UK, BRA)
- Device integrated offers, innovative models
- +18.8% handset revenue vs 2017 (€5.1Bn)
B2B | Differentiated proposal, relevant and distinctive growth engine
- Integral Digital Solutions portfolio, ready to tailor
- "Digital Core" services: Comms + Cloud + Security
- Building blocks: In-house digital services (IoT…) + leading partners (AWS, MSFT, Cisco...)
- Leveraged on Group's unique global capabilities
Lego-like value proposal Business Revenues 2018
Capturing a large and growing opportunity
- FY B2B Digital Services revs. (19% of FY B2B revs.): +31.5% y-o-y
- Cloud Revenues: +21% y-o-y
- Leading infrastructure and partners
- IoT revenues: +31% y-o-y
- Leader in Gartner's Magic Quadrant
- Security revenues: +66% y-o-y
- Leading Security Operation Centres and brands
Split by Region 2018
y-o-y organic
Digital Transformation | Customer at the centre
Transforming our digital relationship with our customers delivering operational efficiency
Spain | Competitive differentiation in a rational market
ARPU growth ramps up on value strategy
- Competitive offering underpins sound trading
- New "Fusión"(Oct), "O2"(Oct), Netflix (Dec)
- Positive contract portability (Q4 & FY)
- Churn flat q-o-q (convergent, mobile contract)
- Further room for "M4M"
- Convergent ARPU up on better mix
- 30% high-end base: +3 p.p. y-o-y
- Higher ARPU growth q-o-q despite "O2" launch
FY net adds
Fiber/Wholesale Fiber /FBB
673K 517K
Pay TV Fusion TV
80% Convergent (+5 p.p. y-o-y)
Growth levers
- Differential TV increases engagement
- Increased football viewers (+90% Champions League audience vs last season)
- 34% Pay TV penetration still below EU avg. (> 40 p.p. opportunity)
- Fibre progress in coverage and connections
- 21.3m FTTH premises passed (+2.1m y-o-y)
- 26% FTTH network uptake (+3 p.p. y-o-y)
Spain | Improved delivery: revenue acceleration, stronger cash
th straight quarter of SR growth 6 th straight quarter of SR growth
6
- Q4 service revenues growth improved (+0.6 p.p. q-o-q)
- "Consumer" (+0.6 p.p.) on convergence (+7.1% y-o-y)
- "Business" (+3.5 p.p.) on record IT sales & flat comms
- "Wholesale & other" (-3.8 p.p.) on tough base
- FY service revenues: +0.3% y-o-y (+1.7% ex-MTR/MásMóvil)
- Tailwinds ahead: Tariffs update, promos expiry, IT, TV wholesale and easing regulation/MVNO impact
Growing OpCF despite OpEx peak
- Q4 OpEx: +3.6% y-o-y (+1.9 p.p. q-o-q); content cost peak
- 297m provision (2016-18 plan; €40m extra savings run-rate)
- Q4 OIBDA y-o-y: -3.2 p.p. vs Q3
- ~-2 p.p. content one-offs (calendar related)
- -1.5 p.p. new football cycle
- Benchmark organic OIBDA margin 40% in FY 18
- CapEx decline for a second year in a row
- Superior operating leverage: 27% OpCF margin
FY OIBDA, CapEx & OpCF (organic)
Germany | Network integration largely finalised
Positive operational momentum
- 47.1m accesses in EU largest market
- Monetising data demand: Innovative tariff portfolio O2 Free with "Boost & Connect"
- LTE cust. 18.4m (+17% y-o-y); penetration +7 p.p. y-o-y
- Mobile churn improved -0.8 p.p. in Q4 (-0.2 p.p. in FY)
- Strong partners contribution: +62% of Q4 gross additions (60% in 2018)
- Step-up in network tests in H2 18: Connect magazine (+127 points y-o-y); Computer Bild ("strong LTE expansion"); Chip ("very good" in Hamburg & Munich)
Key financial highlights
- MSR -0.8% y-o-y (in Q4 and FY)
- MSR ex-reg -0.4% y-o-y in Q4 (flat in FY)
- Strong handset sales: +24.2% y-o-y in Q4 (+12.3% in FY)
- Q4 OIBDA ex-reg. -2.8% y-o-y (+1.8% in FY)
- FY 18 OpCF €868m (-3.7% y-o-y)
UK | Consistently outperforming the market
Customer-centric
- Market-leading UK mobile operator with 32.6m accesses (25.0m own brand + 7.6m MVNO partners)
- Strong contract net adds on the back of differentiated propositions (+284k in Q4; +501k in FY)
- Leading loyalty with lowest contract churn remaining at 1%
- 63% LTE penetration +3 p.p. y-o-y
Strong growth across the board
- Strong top-line growth +5.3% y-o-y in Q4 (+5.4% in FY)
- 10th consecutive quarter of MSR growth (+2.9% y-o-y in Q4; +2.8% in FY)
- Robust Q4 OIBDA growth +23.8% y-o-y
- 27.5% OIBDA margin in FY (+1.5 p.p.)
- 2018 CapEx +7.1% y-o-y
- OpCF €988m ex-spectrum in FY
Brazil | Strong operating momentum
- Strengthening leadership
- Contract Net adds: 3.6m (+7% vs 2017)
- Churn 2018: stable y-o-y
- Better performance in Q4 in prepaid
- Room to continue migration to contract
- 33m prepaid accesses (25% market share)
- Irreplicable assets
- Best 3G+4G coverage (95% coverage; 88% 4G coverage)
- 1,000 4.5G cities (+819k cities in 2018)
- Focus on Fiber/IPTV
- Outstanding results in cities launched since 2017: 42% up take
- ARPU 2018 y-o-y; FBB +11.0%, Pay TV +4.2%
FTTH (Dec-18)
(premises passed in m) FTTH connected
Brazil | Best quarterly OIBDA margin ever
Revenue trend reversed
- FY 18 Total Revenues: +0.3% y-o-y (+1.5 p.p. q-o-q in Q4)
- MSR +1.1% (+1.0 p.p. q-o-q in Q4)
- Better macro & prepaid
- Solid contract performance: prepaid migration & M4M
- Fixed: -4.5% y-o-y (+1.9 p.p. q-o-q in Q4)
- Fiber related products accelerating: Fiber revs.:+26.6%; IPTV +59.0%
- B2B improving (+4.8 p.p. q-o-q)
12 consecutive quarters of OpEx decline
- FY 18 OpEx -2.0% y-o-y (Q4: -1.9%) on digitalisation & simplification
- FY 18 CapEx (18.9% CapEx/Revenues, +0.4 p.p. y-o-y)
- Acceleration in 4G and fiber deployment
- FY 18 OIBDA +5.6% y-o-y (+5.4% in Q4)
- FY 18 OpCF €2,401m (+9.1% y-o-y)
OpEx Inflation
South Hispam | Sustainable growth in a difficult environment
Growth in value; still low penetration
- 5th consecutive quarter of positive contract net adds, +860k in 2018 (-565k in 2017)
- Focus on fiber deployment
- 2.1m prem. Passed in 2018 (8.3m Dec-18); 30% FTTx take-up
- FY 18 OpCF ex-spectrum €624m
- Q4 ARGENTINA (Revs. €884m; OIBDA €252m)
- Consistent Revenue & OIBDA (+28.2% & 29.5% y-o-y)
- 469k FTTx connections (x2 y-o-y); 30k IPTV accesses (launch in Oct-18)
- Q4 CHILE (Revs. €524m; OIBDA €150m)
- Accelerating contract (+13%) & FTTx accesses (+45%). Mobile ARPU +0.3% y-o-y after 6 Qs decreasing
- Efficiencies boosting OIBDA: +11.2% y-o-y; margin +3.8 p.p.
- Q4 PERU (Revs. €528m; OIBDA €60m)
- Accelerating contract (+5%) & FTTx/cable accesses (+42%)
- Positive revenue growth ex-regulation (+3.1%). OIBDA -37.1% affected by intense competition
North Hispam | Regulation and competition dragging growth
Outstanding FY OpCF (+18%) in a difficult environment
- Value growth offseting Mexico headwinds
- Contract accesses y-o-y growth in COL, MEX & CAM
- 304k FTTx connections (x2.4 y-o-y); 27% FTTx take up
- FY 18 OpCF ex-spectrum €260m
- FY 18 OIBDA margin organic: 27.4% (-2.3 p.p.)
- Q4 COLOMBIA (Revs. €363m; OIBDA €148m)
- Sound growth in contract (+3%), prepaid (+9%) and Pay TV (+3%)
- Commercial success, efficiencies & CapEx rationalisation led OpCF x2 (€364m in FY)
- Q4 MEXICO (Revs. €308m; OIBDA €13m)
- Commercial traction in both prepaid (+5%) & contract (+8%)
- Revenue & OIBDA (-6.3% & -78.9% y-o-y) highly affected by regulation, competition & spectrum fees
- Q4 CAM (Revs. €228m; OIBDA €94m)
- Strong acceleration in contract access (+15% y-o-y)
- OpCF FY €172m, +25.2%
Telxius | Crystallising value from premium infrastructure
Growing asset portfolio
- Increased traction in Towers
- 291 new tenants in Q4; largest quarterly gain in 2018
- Higher tenancy ratio: 1.36 (+0.01x q-o-q; +0.03x y-o-y)
- Commercial momentum in Cable
- New cables BRUSA (US-Brazil) and MAREA (US-Spain) fully on service
- Ongoing capacity sales
| Increasing revenue and cash flow | |
|---|---|
- Healthy service revenues growth in Q4
- -Towers: +10% y-o-y
- -Cable: +2% y-o-y
- Capital intensity down (-6.3% y-o-y in FY); new cables are already completed
- Robust FY 18 OpCF (+33.9% y-o-y; €189m)
Q4 FY Q4 FY Revenues 2018 y-o-y organic +11.6% €792m +5.5% €195m y-o-y organic +4.9% +4.6%
Ex-BRUSA effect margin Ex-BRUSA effect
FY & Q4 18 Results
Ms. Laura Abasolo CFCO
Q4 OIBDA & Net income special factors
- Restructuring costs: enhancing profitability and FCF going forward
- OIBDA: (SPA -€297m; GER -€38m, BRA -€19m; PER -€18m, CHI -€7m; COL -€6m; MEX -€5m, ECU -€3m; Others +€29m)
- Capital gains on towers
- OIBDA: Towers: CAM +€16m; COL +€3m
- Capital loss on sale of Catsa in Spain (-€3m OIBDA)
- Mexican impairment (€-242m OIBDA)
- T. Mexico DTA de-recognition (-€28m Net Income)
- Hyperinflation in ARG (+€80m OIBDA, -€46m Net Income)
FY Net income surpassed €3.3bn; EPS €0.57
Underlying EPS €0.81 +9.0%
Managing FX headwinds
Strong FCF; mid-single digit growth in FY ex-spectrum
FCF reported
Net financial debt (7th Q in a row declining)
FCF ex-spectrum growing on improved business performance
FCF/sh. 2018
Steady net debt reduction out of strong FCF
Strong liquidity thanks to attractive long-term financing
Sources of long-term financing
FY 2018 & 2019 YTD | €Bn
Liquidity position
Net Debt maturities
Dec-18 | €Bn; not considering hybrid NC dates
Interest payment costs
Dec-18
Conclusion
Mr. José Mª Álvarez-Pallete Chairman & CEO
2019 guidance
| Operating 2019 guidance (organic) |
Guidance 2019E | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | Around +2% |
Sustainable revenue & OIBDA growth | ||
| OIBDA | Around +2% |
despite regulation | ||
| CapEx / Sales ex-spectrum |
Around 15% |
CapEx rationality |
||
| Attractive, stable | & sustainable dividend |
|||
| 2019 DIVIDEND |
€0.4/SH. CASH | |||
| Dividends to be paid in 2019 | calendar yr. €0.40/sh. | |||
| Cash: Jun/19 €0.20/sh. |
Interim Dec-19 | €0.20/sh. | ||
| Cash: Dec/19 | €0.20/sh. | Final Jun-20 | €0.20/sh. |
Summary
2018
- Focus and invest in transformation
- Leading the pack in digitalisation, virtualisation & AI
- Upgrade customer base; clear drive towards FTTx and 4G
• Sustainable organic growth; margin expansion; further deleverage on robust FCF
2019
- Growth & returns; leveraging our differential assets and our global capabilities
- Network transformation enables to better customer experience, regain differentiation
-
Monetisation of our leading value proposition
-
Capture benefits of digitalisation efforts; flexibility to reallocate resources across footprint
- Increase ROCE
For further information: Investor Relations Tel. +34 91 482 87 00 [email protected] www.telefonica.com/investors
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