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Repsol S.A. — Investor Presentation 2021
Apr 29, 2021
1881_rns_2021-04-29_75ae9bb7-4c27-4a91-855d-cce8a4864ce1.pdf
Investor Presentation
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1Q21 Results
29 April 2021
Josu Jon Imaz CEO
REPSOL CONFERENCE CALL
1

Disclaimer
ALL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED
© REPSOL, S.A. 2021
This document contains statements that Repsol believes constitute forward-looking statements which may include statements regarding the intent, belief, or current expectations of Repsol and its management, including statements with respect to trends affecting Repsol's financial condition, financial ratios, results of operations, business, strategy, geographic concentration, production volume and reserves, capital expenditures, costs savings, investments and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates and are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "forecasts", "believes", estimates", "notices" and similar expressions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond Repsol's control or may be difficult to predict. Within those risks are those factors described in the filings made by Repsol and its affiliates with the "Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores" in Spain and with any other supervisory authority of those markets where the securities issued by Repsol and/or its affiliates are listed.
Repsol does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
This document mentions resources which do not constitute proved reserves and will be recognized as such when they comply with the formal conditions required by the system "SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE/SEG/SPWLA/EAGE Petroleum Resources Management System" (SPE-PRMS) (SPE – Society of Petroleum Engineers).
In October 2015, the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) published its Guidelines on Alternative Performance Measures (APMs). The guidelines apply to regulated information published on or after 3 July 2016. The information and breakdowns relative to the APMs used in this presentation are updated quarterly on Repsol´s website.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe securities, pursuant to the provisions of the Royal Legislative Decree 4/2015 of the 23rd of October approving the recast text of the Spanish Securities Market Law and its implementing regulations. In addition, this document does not constitute an offer to purchase, sell, or exchange, neither a request for an offer of purchase, sale or exchange of securities in any other jurisdiction.
The information contained in the document has not been verified or revised by the External Auditors of Repsol.
Index
01. Key messages 02. Operational highlights 03. Financial results 04. Outlook 2021

Key messages
Solid first quarter performance continues positive momentum

Strong quarterly results and cash generation
Closer to pre-COVID levels
Reinforced financial strength
- Positive CFFO and FCF in all business segments
- Higher oil & gas prices, outstanding Chemicals
- Ongoing weak Refining
- Adjusted Net Income: +17% QoQ and +5% YoY
- CFFO +73% YoY and -11% vs. 1Q19
- Net Debt in line with the end of 2020 (excluding the effect of hybrids)
- S&P and Fitch reaffirm BBB rating with a stable outlook
- Buyback program to offset dilution of January scrip
- Transformation towards strategic objectives
- Accelerating investment in Low Carbon (40% of 1Q21 capex)
- Upstream flexibility benefits from higher oil and gas prices
Market environment
Stronger oil and gas prices. Weaker refining environment





Exchange Rate
(\$/€)

5 Repsol 1Q21 Results
Operational highlights - Upstream
Strong organic FCF generation supported by higher prices and lower costs



- Maintenance activities across several assets
- Higher volumes in Libya, Bolivia and Venezuela 1Q20 4Q20 1Q21

Operational highlights – Upstream
Exploration success continues. New FID's coming in next 24 months

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Success rate*
Selective Exploration strategy
Boicobo Sur (Bolivia): ~1 Tcf of resources in Caipipendi producing block
2018-2020 discoveries concentrated around 3 areas: GoM, Alaska and South-East Asia
Progress on 14 key projects in SP
YME Norway • First oil projected for 4Q21
Pikka Alaska • FID expected end-2021 • First oil projected for 2025
Sakakemang Indonesia
- FID expected end-2021/early-2022
- First gas two years later
Campos 33
Brazil • Approved development concept
Operational highlights - Industrial
Outstanding Chemicals supported by record-level margins

Refining
Ongoing challenging environment
- Lower margin indicator (\$0.2 /bbl) vs. 1Q20 and 4Q20
- Narrower middle distillates differentials and tighter light-to-heavy crude spreads
- Strength of heavy crudes weights against complex refiners
Utilization of Repsol's refining capacity

Chemicals
Exceptional delivery
- Highest margins in decades for polyolefins and intermediates
- Solid demand and market supply constraints
- Higher utilization rates

Operational highlights – Commercial businesses
and -22% vs.1Q19
Mobility business impacted by COVID-19 and Filomena storm

Sales in Repsol's Service Stations in Spain

Mobility
- COVID-19 mobility restrictions
- Filomena storm collapsed mobility and supply for two weeks in Spain
• Sales in Service Stations -14% vs. 1Q20
• Divestment of Service Stations and direct fuels sales businesses in Italy
Retail E&G
- Acquisition of Gana Energía: 100% green energy
- > 1.2 Million retail clients
Lubricants, Asphalts and Specialties
- Solid results
- Higher sales vs. 1Q20 and lower costs
- Launched new range lubricants for electric vehicles and motorcycles
Renewables pipeline on track Operational highlights – Renewables & Generation

Expected CODs in 2021 10 Additional 710 MW by year-end 20 MW 2021 PI Castilla y León 107 MW 2021 DELTA II Aragón 126 MW 2021 Kappa Castilla la Mancha 264 MW 2021 Valdesolar Extremadura 138 MW 2021 Elena Phase 1 Chile 55 MW 2021 Cabo Leonés III Phase 2 Spain 517 MW 193 MW Expected CODs in 2021 Repsol 1Q21 Results
- Electricity generated by Repsol +23% YoY
- Kappa: first solar farm with 126 MW starting operations in April
- Chile: 14-year PPA for the development of Atacama wind project
- PPA with Microsoft
Progress in the transformation of our portfolio Operational highlights – Energy Transition

Sustainable biofuels 1.3 Mt by 2025 >2 Mt by 2030
Cartagena ecofuels plant
First steps for the construction of the first advanced biofuels plant in Spain
250,000 Tn/y operational in 2023
Reduction of 900,000 Tn/y of CO2 emissions
Capex: €188 M
Plastics circularity
Recycle 20% polyolefin production1
Waste-to-Chemicals plant in Tarragona
JV with Enerkem and Agbar
Solid urban waste transformed into methanol
Capacity: 220,000 Tn/y
Operational in 2025
Polyurethane foam recycling plant in Puertollano
Operational end-2022, with a capacity to treat 2,000 Tn/y of waste

0.4 GWeq by 2025 1.2 GWeq by 2030 Renewable Hydrogen
Renewable hydrogen plant in Petronor
Started engineering work

First ultra-fast charging point in Portugal
Continues expansion of recharging network in Spain
Financial results
1Q21 Results
| Q1 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q1 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| 327 | 195 | 90 |
| 73 | 68 | 288 |
| 101 | 153 | 121 |
| (30) | (12) | (52) |
| 471 | 404 | 447 |
| 321 | 70 | (790) |
| (144) | (1,185) | (144) |
| 648 | (711) | (487) |
| Financial data (€ Million) | Q1 2021 | Q4 2020 | Q1 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,837 | 1,259 | 349 |
| EBITDA CCS | 1,395 | 1,160 | 1,455 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,030 | 1,075 | 596 |
| Net Debt with leases | 6,452 | 6,778 | 8,364 |

Outlook 2021
Higher oil & gas prices and stronger Chemicals to offset lower Refining

| Production | ~ 625 kboed | |
|---|---|---|
| Refining Margin Indicator |
\$2 /bbl | • vs. \$3.5/bbl previous guidance |
| EBITDA CCS | ~ €5.8 Bn | • +10% vs. previous guidance • >40% higher than in 2020 |
| Capex | ~ €2.6 Bn | • +10% Upstream FY Capex increase (unconventionals) • >25% deployed in Low Carbon platforms |
| Net debt* | ≤ €6.8 Bn | • In line with 2020 (excl. hybrids transactions of 2021) |
| Dividend | €0.6 /share | • Dividend only in cash starting in July'21 |
Prudent capital allocation policy and revised macro scenario
Conclusions
"Resilience mode" in an improving macro environment

Resilience of Repsol's integrated model
Upstream ready to capitalize on higher prices
Ongoing progress in the Energy Transition
Revised 2021 full-year EBITDA and CFFO targets
- 1Q21 positive operating and free cash flow in all segments
- Upstream: "yield and focus"
- Downstream: Chemicals and Customer Centric compensate Refining
- Strong 1Q21 organic FCF generation
- Capex flexibility in unconventionals (Marcellus, Eagle Ford)
- Exploration success and new FIDs 2021/2022
- Transformation of Industrial assets
- Circular economy opportunities
- Development of renewables pipeline on track
- EBITDA CCS target upgraded +10% to €5.8 Bn in 2021
- Higher O&G prices and stronger Chemicals to offset lower Refining
1Q21 Results
29 April 2021
Repsol Investor Relations [email protected]
