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PTR MINERALS LTD — Investor Presentation 2007
Jul 8, 2007
65621_rns_2007-07-08_d6198baa-e9db-433a-98c5-350410779e9b.pdf
Investor Presentation
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PETRATHERM LIMITED ABN 17 106 806 884
PRESENTATION TO COMMONWEALTH DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, TRADE & RESOURCES
As a recognized leader in the Australian geothermal energy sector, Petratherm was invited by the Energy & Environment Division of the Federal Department of Industry, Trade & Resources, to present at their Annual Divisional Seminar. The Energy & Environment Division is responsible for leading the Australian Geothermal Energy Industry Development Framework.
The Company’s presentation (copy attached) outlined Petratherm’s latest business activities and plans, together with an overview of the Australian geothermal energy sector and the challenges and opportunities facing the development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) projects – often referred to as “hot rocks”.
9 July 2007
ASX Code: PTR ABN 17 106 806 884
105 Greenhill Road Unley 5061 South Australia Tel: +61 8 8274 5000 Fax: +61 8 8272 8141
W: www.petratherm.com.au E: [email protected]
The key messages included in the presentation are summarized as:
-
Petratherm’s key strength lies in its approach to “exploration for heat” and its commercial assessment of projects – “location, location, location”.
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The approach has resulted in a portfolio of quality projects in Australia and overseas – first mover in Spain for “Hot Rocks”.
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Petratherm’s unique HEWI model has the potential to concurrently and substantially reduce costs and risks – also reducing the time for delivery.
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Petratherm has, in its Paralana Project, clear commercial and competitive advantages with a willing potential customer at “off grid” prices and a realistic long-term commercialization path – unique path to commercialization.
-
Geothermal Energy – conventional and “hot rocks” can provide low cost, large scale, base load, renewable power – highly attractive political, economic, social and environmental global energy solution.
Yours faithfully
Terry Kallis Managing Director
MEDIA CONTACT: Terry Kallis Petratherm Limited 08 8274 5000 Kevin Skinner Field Public Relations 08 8234 9555 / 0414 822 631
therm petra
DITR – Energy & Environment Divisional Seminar
“ Building a portfolio of quality geothermal energy projects – Australia and Overseas” Presented by: Terry Kallis, Managing Director July 2007
Presentation Outline
• Key Messages • Corporate Overview • Petratherm’s Unique Exploration and HEWI Models • Key Projects – Australia & Overseas • Significant Achievements - 2006/2007 • Economics of Geothermal Energy Generation • Geothermal Energy and Electricity Markets • SA Electricity Market and Geothermal Projects • Geothermal Project Economics and Development • Paralana short/long term Commercialization Plans • Key Challenges for Australian EGS Projects • Summary
Key Messages
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Petratherm’s key strength lies in its approach to “exploration for heat” and its commercial assessment of projects - “location, location, location”.
-
The approach has resulted in a portfolio of quality projects in Australia and Overseas – first mover in Spain for “Hot Rocks”.
-
Petratherm’s unique HEWI model has the potential to concurrently and substantially reduce costs and risks – also reducing the time for delivery
-
Petratherm has, in its Paralana Project, clear commercial and competitive advantages with a willing potential customer at “off grid” prices and a realistic long term commercialization path – unique path to commercialization
-
Geothermal Energy – conventional and “hot rocks” can provide low -
-
cost, large scale, base load, renewable power highly attractive political, economic, social and environmental global energy solution
Corporate Overview
• Established in 2003 and listed on the ASX in July 2004
• Major shareholder is Minotaur Exploration – 34%
• Recent successful capital raising - Placement & SPP, $6.3 M • Shares on Issue - 57,750,000 – Current Price of $1.18 • Market Capitalization of $ 68 million • $8 M in cash, $ 5M grant and up to $ 30 M JV with Beach Petroleum “ • Mission – to explore and develop, emission free, geothermal energy projects that are commercially sustainable ” “ ” • Strategy – shallow hot rocks close to market
petra therm Board & Management
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Derek Carter Chairman
Simon O’loughlin Director
Prof. Richard Hillis Director
Dr Lloyd Taylor Director
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Petratherm’s Exploration Model “Shallow Hot Rocks close to Market"
“Hot Rocks” are EGS , i.e. Enhanced Geothermal Systems Prime Cost Drivers
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Temperature Differential
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Drilling Depth
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Flow Rate
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Network Connection
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Generation Plant
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Petratherm is seeking to optimize the key drivers to achieve the lowest long run average cost electricity delivered while minimizing project risks.
Enhanced Geothermal Systems
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Heat Exchanger Within Insulator (HEWI) Model
EGS - enhance/engineer the geothermal system that is underground heat exchanger
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Higher Permeability
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Chemically Stable
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No Potential Radon build up
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Lower Risk
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= Cheaper Power !
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Petratherm’s SA Projects
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Paralana Hot Springs – 62[0] C
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Outstanding Thermal Resource
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Phase 3 drilling
Paralana Work Program
109 [o] C
petra therm Temperature measurements indicate 200 degrees C at 3.6km
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| Ranking | Country | All Renewables Index |
Renewables Infrastructure Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 69 | 80 |
| 2 | USA | 67 | 70 |
| 3 | Germany | 62 | 56 |
| 4 | India | 61 | 66 |
| 5 | UK | 60 | 61 |
| 6 | Italy | 58 | 63 |
| 7 | France | 57 | 55 |
| 8 | Portugal | 56 | 63 |
| 9 | China | 56 | 59 |
| 10 | Canada | 55 | 63 |
| 11 | Netherlands | 54 | 56 |
| 12 | Ireland | 54 | 61 |
| 13 | Greece | 53 | 56 |
| 14 | Sweden | 52 | 53 |
| 15 | Australia | 50 | 51 |
| 16 | Denmark | 49 | 58 |
| 17 | Norway | 49 | 56 |
| 18 | Belgium | 48 | 53 |
| 19 | Finland | 38 | 39 |
Wholesale Renewable Power Price’s cents per KWh (Aus)
Spain USA China India Australia
11.4 – 14.5 10 – 11.5 8.6 – 9.5 7.8 – 10.1 7.5 – 8.5
Europe - Extrapolated Temperatures at 5km Depth
Lithuania German basin Eger Cornwall Rhine graben Urach Molasse Pannonian basin basin Massif central Limagne Provence Greek grabens Tuscany Latium Catalonia Turkey Campidano
Madrid Project – Madrid Basin
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Tenement Area 300 km[2 ] , located 35 kms NNE of Madrid
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Major electricity and water infrastructure, > 5000 MW of capacity
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Known low enthalpy aquifer (85[o] C) resource at 1500m and very high flow rates.
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High heat production granites outcropping in the range and likely to underpin the basin, similar setting to Paralana
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Basin thickness approximately 4000 metres
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Three existing deep wells on tenements down to 3. 1 to 3.5 kms.
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Potential for early advancement of project during 2007
Barcelona Project – Valles Basin
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Adjoining Tenements located 30 kms NNE of Barcelona
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Central to major electricity infrastructure, >2000 MW of capacity
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Area of known high heat flow
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Local hot aquifer sourcing a 115-130[o] C shallow reservoir at around 1000 metres
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High heat production granites underpin the basin & outcrop in adjacent ranges
Tenerife Conventional Geothermal Project – Canary Islands, Spain
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10,000 MW of conventional geothermal worldwide
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Known technology, lower risk and earlier development
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Volcanic heat source – typically >300°C at 2kms
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Tenerife population up to 1.5M people during peak season
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Substantial transmission infrastructure in close proximity
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Attractive market and regulatory environment – with high price energy alternatives
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China – AP6 Program
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Asia Pacific Partnership Approved Project (AP6) with the support of the Chinese and Australian Governments
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Over 240 recorded geothermal sites
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Conventional Geothermal Potential ~1400 MW
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Enormous EGS (Hot Dry Rock) Potential
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Hot Water and Electricity Plays in a number of provinces
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Joint Venture discussions under way with interested parties
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China – AP6 Program
Heat Flow Map of China
Source: Hu Shengbiao, He Lijuan and Wang Jiyang. 2000.
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Petratherm - Key Achievements
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Discovery of world-class heat resource at Paralana, South Australia.
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Established an MOU with Heathgate Resources to provide their Beverley Uranium Mine with electricity to meet their growing needs.
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Secured approval to investigate China’s Hot Rock potential through Asia Pacific Partnership on Climate and Clean Development (AP6)
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Up to $30 million Joint Venture with Beach Petroleum to test and build Phase-1 commercial plant at the Paralana Hot Rock Resource ($10 M for 21% equity and option for additional 15% equity for a further $20 M)
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$5 million Federal Government grant to support development of a new lower risk heat extraction process (HEWI Model)
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New Spanish Hot Rock Projects announced near Madrid & Barcelona - Conventional Geothermal in Tenerife, Canary Islands (more to come)
Petratherm Share Price
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PTR Share price movement
160
New Conventional
Geothermal Project for Tenerife
140
6 Mill. Placement
Spanish media coy
120 becomes 1%
stakeholder
Federal Govt. $5 million
Grant
100
80 Heat Flow Measurement
60 High Well Temperature
B.D. Manager
Barcelona Project Appointed
40 Beach JV &
Madrid Project Paralana Project
moves to Well
20 Design & Rig
Heathgate MOU / AP6 China Grant Selection
0
Month
Cents ($AUD)
Jul 06 Aug 06 Sept 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07
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Petratherm Project Summary
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Build on the Company’s key strength of exploring for heat and adding project development to its capabilities and seeking to continually lower costs and risks
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Continue to expanding its portfolio of quality projects in Australia and .
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Overseas (Spain and China)
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Paralana Project exhibits the key ingredients for success
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Excellent thermal resource at shallow depths with stable geological formation - expect good drilling conditions
– Proximity to the “off-grid” Beverley Uranium Mine
– $30 M JV with Beach Petroleum and $5 M Federal Grant – A unique and realistic, long term commercialization plan
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Paralana Project Next Steps
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Deep well design and drilling rig selection – late July 2007
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– Drilling first well – subject to rig availability – early 2008
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– Drilling second well – mid 2008
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Long term circulation tests late 2008
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Produce first power to Beverley – end 2009
Economics of Geothermal Energy Generation
1600
Brown Coal PF 420MW (CF85%) Brown Coal PF 420MW (CF85%) + GS Black Coal PF 420MW (CF85%) Black Coal PF 420MW (CF85%) + GS Black Coal Supercritical 860MW (CF85%) Gas Combined Cycle 130MW (CF65%) Gas Combined Cycle 250MW (CF65%) Gas Comb’d Cycle 250MW (CF65%) + GS Gas Combined Cycle 400MW (CF60%) Wind 90 MW (CF35%) Geothermal 550 MW (CF70%)
1400 1200 1000 800 600
Brown Coal
Black Coal Black Coal
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Geothermal is: Gas Geothermal 550 MW (CF70%)
400 • Nuclear CANDU 6 1450 MW (CF 85%)
CHEAP
•
LARGE SCALE
Black Coal + CO2 capture
200 • BASE LOAD
Gas + CO2 capture
Geothermal Wind
0
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100
AUS
Generation Cost AUS$/MWhr
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Brown Coal + CO2 capture
Long Run Costs of Renewable Energy Technologies
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Advantages of Geothermal Energy include: • Large scale base load
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Large resources and reserves
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Expected to be lowest cost renewable energy source
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Extract from McLennan Magasanik Associates independent report “Renewable Energy – A Contribution to Australia’s Environmental and Economic Sustainability”.
Total renewable cost envelope v’s coal, gas and nuclear cost.
Geothermal Energy and Electricity Markets
International
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The global renewable energy market (all forms) represents only 4% of electricity production but is growing at 25% per annum.
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Geothermal energy has largest technical potential of all renewable sources (source: World Energy Assessment UNPD 2000).
• MIT Report suggests that EGS can provide 10% of US power by 2050
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Renewable energy policies with favourable targets and “in-feed tariffs” some over $140 per MWh
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European Union target of 20% by 2020
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− China target of 10% by 2020
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− India target of 10% by 2020
Geothermal Energy and Electricity Markets Australia
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Review of the Energy White Paper and current policy on renewable and low emission energy technologies – Emissions Trading and Renewable Energy
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Strong support for geothermal energy due to competitive, large scale, base load potential –SA Govt. PACE initiative, AGEG and recent Federal Govt. Geothermal Energy Industry Development Framework and Labor Party Policy and Program announcements ($ 50 million for drilling – 5 projects and MLET?)
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Geothermal Energy potential is vast and could meet Australia’s electricity needs for many centuries. The Paralana thermal resource potential alone is estimated at 13,000 MW
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ESAA estimates that 8% (around 3500 MW) of national demand could be met by 2030. Geothermal Energy Industry formulating a bold, yet realistic Vision .
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with objectives for 2010, 2020 and 2030
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The interconnected NEM in Australia is projected to require 5,000 MW of new capacity over the next 10 years (source: NEMMCO Statement of
Australian Geothermal Licenses, Applications and License Application Areas
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SA Electricity Market
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SA NEM region electricity demand to require at least 600MW of new capacity
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Does not include potential increase of over 400MW from Olympic Dam.
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Nor the effect of depleting Leigh Creek coal.
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Demand requirements will be between 600 – 1,500MW.
Forecast Supply Demand Balance for South Australia (source SA ESIPC APR 2006)
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2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
SA Supply (Existing Generation) SA Supply (New Capacity)
SA Supply (Via Heywood IC and MurrayLink) SA 10% PoE Demand - DSM + Reserve Requirements
1,500 SA 50% PoE Demand - DSM
1,000
Available MW
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SA Geothermal Projects
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Many players
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Large resources
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Exploiting different geothermal resources
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Hot Rock plays
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“Hot Water” plays
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Different market / connection plays
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South Australian heat flow
anomaly
Pacific Hydro
Habanero 1,2
Geodynamics
Eden
Eden
Geodynamics Osiris
Proactive
Eden
Petratherm Yerila 1
Proactive
Petratherm
Blanche 1
Green Rock Eden
Paralana 1B
Proactive
Torrens
Regional power grid
Geothermal
Green Rock
Eden
Torrens
200 km Petratherm
Geothermal
Heat Flow 1,3,4 Osiris
Sedimentary basin (thermal blanket) Scopenergy
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Geothermal Energy Project Economics
• Temperature (differential, quality and type of resource) • Drilling Costs (depth, size, geological formation) • Energy Flow Rates (volume, energy transfer) • Plant Capital Costs and related efficiencies • Connection and Access to markets • Operating Costs
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Economies of Scale/Production
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Revenue/Product Pricing in a Competitive Market
• Regulatory Regime – carbon pricing
• Critical Project Parameters are Revenue, Capital Costs (drilling, plant, connection) and Thermal Resource (temperature differential, volume and flow)
Network Access & Connection
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-
Transmission Costs
-
Transportation losses
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Margin Loss Factor
-
System Stability
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Development Approvals, Licensing, Easements and Permits
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Network Capacity at connection point
Electricity Market & Network Issues
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Proximity to market – network connection costs – 132kV or 275kV for large scale and/or distant locations
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Network Capital Costs – target around 10% to 15% of total project capital costs.
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Market constraints – local, regional, interstate transmission and market operations
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Marginal Loss Factors and Revenue
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Market – on-grid or off-grid pricing
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Development & Scaling Up
-
New Entrant Pricing – SA combined cycle gas
Summary – Geothermal Energy Economics
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Geothermal Energy Projects have the potential to provide very cost competitive electricity generation
-
The Australian NEM is competitive market but it is characterized by loosely interconnected regional markets – many constraints
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Economics of Geothermal can be clearly assessed but are very project specific – resource and location
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Project optimization process needed to deliver competitively priced product to market – LRAC c.f. New Entrant Price
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Costs include the cost of production, delivery (transmission) and sale to competitive market – “need to understand the market”
-
Near term horizon – Geothermal requires a form of carbon pricing mechanism to be viable.
Paralana Commercialization Plan
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Paralana Commercialization Plans
-
–
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Staged local expansion from 7.5 MW to 30.0 MW (from end 2009) network capital costs range between 8% and 10% of total capital costs – uniquely positioned with a willing potential customer at “off grid” prices
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Realistic large-scale, long term plans over 15 years for 520 MW of power generation, incorporating market digestion, competition from geothermal/traditional sources and the cost of delivery to market (transmission costs) to the “on grid” market (NEM)
-
Connection to the SA power system at Port Augusta and/or Olympic Dam, via a “meshed” 275 kV transmission network or individual double circuit 275 kV transmission lines - unique opportunity for meshed network community benefits leading to lower project costs.
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Competitive network capital connection costs range between 10% and 13% of total project costs (potentially as low as 5%)
Challenges for Australian EGS Projects
-
Securing a quality site – the three locations – optimizing economics in a competitive market.
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Confirming the quality of the potential resource – temperature differential, stress regime / permeability.
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Deep drilling of wells – well design, drilling rig availability and costs.
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Establishing long-term circulation between injection and production wells -permeability, fracturing, flow rate.
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Integration of above-ground generation plant with below-ground thermal resource.
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Establishing reliable power plant output and up scaling.
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Electrical connection (transmission) to the National Electricity Market.
Summary
-
Petratherm’s key strength lies in its approach to “exploration for heat” and its commercial assessment of projects – understanding the “three locations”.
-
The approach has resulted in a portfolio of quality projects in Australia and Overseas – first mover in Spain for “Hot Rocks”.
-
Petratherm’s unique HEWI model has the potential to concurrently and substantially reduce costs and risks – also reducing the time for delivery
-
Petratherm has, in its Paralana Project, clear commercial and competitive advantages with a willing potential customer at “off grid” prices and a realistic long term commercialization path – unique path to commercialization
-
Geothermal Energy – conventional and “hot rocks” can provide low -
-
cost, large scale, base load, renewable power highly attractive political, economic, social and environmental global energy solution
Thank You
petra therm ASX Code: PTR www.petratherm.com.au Phone: (08) 8274 5000
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