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NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD — AGM Information 2016
Nov 28, 2016
65447_rns_2016-11-28_3d128efd-7a27-4714-9e23-fadf9950ca98.pdf
AGM Information
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Northern Star Resources AGM Presentation
An Australian gold miner – for global investors
November 2016
Competent Persons Statements
The information in this announcement that relates to mineral resource estimations, data quality and geological interpretations for the Company’s Paulsens, Ashburton and Jundee Project areas, is based on information compiled by Brook Ekers, a Competent Person who is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists and a full-time employee of Northern Star Resources Limited. Mr Ekers has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves". Mr Ekers consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on this information in the form and context in which it appears.
The information in this announcement that relates to mineral resource estimations, exploration results, data quality and geological interpretations for the Company’s Kanowna, EKJV, Kundana and Carbine Project areas, is based on information compiled by Nicholas Jolly, a Competent Person who is a Member of the Australiasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and a full-time employee of Northern Star Resources Limited. Mr Jolly has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves". Mr Jolly consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on this information in the form and context in which it appears.
The information in this announcement that relates to ore reserve estimations for the Company’s Project areas is based on information compiled by Jeff Brown, a Competent Person who is a Member of the Australiasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and a full-time employee of Northern Star Resources Limited. Mr Brown has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves“. Mr Brown consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on this information in the form and context in which it appears.
The information in this announcement that relates to the Central Tanami Gold Project is extracted from the Tanami Gold NL ASX announcement entitled “Quarterly Report for the Period Ending 31 March 2014” released on 1 May 2014 and is available to view on www.tanami.com.au.
The information in this announcement that relates to mineral resource estimations, data quality, geological interpretations and potential for eventual economic extraction for the Groundrush deposit at the Central Tanami Gold Project is based on information compiled by Brook Ekers, a Competent Person who is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists and a full-time employee of Northern Star Resources Limited. Mr Ekers has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves". Mr Ekers consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on this information in the form and context in which it appears.
The Company confirms that it is not aware of any further new information or data that materially affects the information included in the original market announcement entitled “Quarterly Report for the Period Ending 31 March 2014” released on 1 May 2014 and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed. To the extent disclosed above, the Company confirms that the form and context in which the Competent Person’s findings are presented have not been materially modified from the original market announcement.
Forward Looking Statements
Northern Star Resources Limited has prepared this announcement based on information available to it. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this announcement. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of Northern Star Resources Limited, its directors, employees or agents, advisers, nor any other person accepts any liability, including, without limitation, any liability arising from fault or negligence on the part of any of them or any other person, for any loss arising from the use of this announcement or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with it.
This announcement is not an offer, invitation, solicitation or other recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of any security, and neither this announcement nor anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This announcement may contain forward looking statements that are subject to risk factors associated with gold exploration, mining and production businesses. It is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable but they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, including but not limited to price fluctuations, actual demand, currency fluctuations, drilling and production results, Reserve estimations, loss of market, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, legislative, fiscal and regulatory changes, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates.
All currency conversions in this presentation have been converted at a currency of AUD/USD conversion rate of A$0.7285c
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Current GDX constituents data has been displayed for a five year period sourced from Bloomberg. For companies where the data is not present or a N.A data point has been displayed, the company has been removed from the chart
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^ Streamers and Royalty companies have been removed from this chart due to the nature of their businesses not being directly related to mining capital expenditure requirements
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Northern Star is an ASX100, Australian stock exchange listed gold miner
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Paulsens & Ashburton
Operations
+3Moz Gold Camp Central Tanami Project
+5Moz Gold Camp
Jundee Mine
+7Moz Gold Camp
Kalgoorlie Operations
+12Moz Gold Camp
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Strong balance sheet; no debt; A$350M in cash & equivalents 30 Sep 2016 Market cap is A$2.2B and a Top 25 global producer
FY17 guidance of 485koz -515kozpa at an AISC of A$1,000- A$1,050/oz
Strong organic growth; Production set to reach 600kozpa in 2018
Majority of production now comes from +200kozpa concentrated centres/mines Track record of fully-franked dividends and sector leading rates of return
We are governed by the adage “a business first and a mining company second”
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Key Operational Outcomes
561,000oz sold at AISC of A$1,041/oz
Total Reserves increased by 33% to 2Moz
Resources increased to 9.25Moz
Key Financial Outcomes
Net Profit After Tax up 65% to a record A$151.4M
Underlying free cash flow of A$224.3M and EBITDA of A$401.3M
Dividends increased 40% to 7¢ per share, gross yield 2.7%
Cash and equivalents currently of A$350M; NO DEBT
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Superior returns on invested capital continues to be the focus driving investment decisions Capital is forced to compete internally for project funding to ensure NST continues to generate a sector leading Return on Equity 39% and a Return on Invested Capital of 28% last financial year
NST is converting Reserves at A$50/oz whilst peers pay 10 times via acquisition Sector Leader in all measures: ROIC, ROE, FCF Yield/EV, AISC and lowest Capital Intensity Whilst NST can generate these type of returns year-in year-out it will continue to motivate capital organically
50.0% Current VanEck GDX Constituents* 5 Year Return on Invested Capital NST 27% 20.0% -10.0% Sector Average -1.6% -40.0% -70.0%
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-100.0%
Source: Bloomberg
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Superior returns on invested capital continues to be the focus driving investment decisions Capital is forced to compete internally for project funding to ensure NST continues to generate a sector leading Return on Equity 39% and a Return on Invested Capital of 28% last financial year
NST is converting Reserves at A$50/oz whilst peers pay 10 times via acquisition Sector Leader in all measures: ROIC, ROE, FCF Yield/EV, AISC and lowest Capital Intensity Whilst NST can generate these type of returns year-in year-out it will continue to motivate capital organically
35.0% NST 30% Current VanEck GDX Constituents* 5 Year Return on Equity 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% Sector Average -2.2% -15.0% -25.0% -35.0% -45.0%
Source: Bloomberg
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Superior returns on invested capital continues to be the focus driving investment decisions Capital is forced to compete internally for project funding to ensure NST continues to generate a sector leading Return on Equity 39% and a Return on Invested Capital of 28% last financial year
NST is converting Reserves at A$50/oz whilst peers pay 10 times via acquisition Sector Leader in all measures: ROIC, ROE, FCF Yield/EV, AISC and lowest Capital Intensity Whilst NST can generate these type of returns year-in year-out it will continue to motivate capital organically
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NST 14%
15.0% Current VanEck GDX Constituents FCF Yield to Enterprise Value
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Sector Average -0.3%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-30.0%
NST SBM EVN CEY RRL SMF ABX KGI YRI K NCM ZIJIN NEM OR MUX G CDE AEM DGC ZHAO SSO THO FR SAR HL ASR BTO EDV GUY FVI PAA CG SLW AGI IGO ELD NGD IMG FNV TXG RGLD AKG
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Source: Bloomberg
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Superior returns on invested capital continues to be the focus driving investment decisions Capital is forced to compete internally for project funding to ensure NST continues to generate a sector leading Return on Equity 39% and a Return on Invested Capital of 28% last financial year
NST is converting Reserves at A$50/oz whilst peers pay 10 times via acquisition Sector Leader in all measures: ROIC, ROE, FCF Yield/EV, AISC and lowest Capital Intensity Whilst NST can generate these type of returns year-in year-out it will continue to motivate capital organically
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$1,400
Macquarie Global CY16 AISC Cost Curve Q4
$1,200
Q3
$1,000 Q2
Average US$863/oz Q1
$800 NST US$746/oz
$600
$400
$200
$0
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US$/oz
FRES SBM IGO RRL THO BDR EVN NST SAR Q1 NCM OCG ABX PAF ASR DRM AEM BTO RRS TXG Q2 SMF GG YRI ANG SGL TGZ ROG EGO RIC CEY Q3 KCN DGC MML GFI PRU HAR AGI KGI IAG P Q4
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Superior returns on invested capital continues to be the focus driving investment decisions Capital is forced to compete internally for project funding to ensure NST continues to generate a sector leading Return on Equity 39% and a Return on Invested Capital of 28% last financial year
NST is converting Reserves at A$50/oz whilst peers pay 10 times via acquisition Sector Leader in all measures: ROIC, ROE, FCF Yield/EV, AISC and lowest Capital Intensity Whilst NST can generate these type of returns year-in year-out it will continue to motivate capital organically
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8.00 Current VanEck GDX Constituents^ Capital Intensity Ratio
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
Sector Average 3.2x
3.00
2.00
NST 0.97x
1.00
Source: Bloomberg
NST SBM ZIJIN RRL SNGL SAR EVN EDV AU HMY CDE KGI GFI SSO FVI K PAA SMF CG CEY ABX OGC NEM AEM NCM ASR IMG FR BTO GOLD THO DGC BVN IGO G HL NGD YRI ZHAO ELD MUX AGI
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Substantial reduction in major discoveries world wide; In 2015 greenfield discoveries cost US$189 per ounce, NST costs were US$14 per ounce for the same period
Majority of future gold production is heading underground, in Australia 56% of production is now from underground sources vs 44% from open pit mining
Past 3 years has seen the Majors Reserves decline by 15%, whilst NST Reserves have grown by 67% in just 2 years
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Cumulative Majors Reserves v NST Reserves
560
2.0
2.0
540
552
1.5
520
1.5
1.2
500
515 1.0
480
460
472 0.5
440
420 0.0
2013 2014 2015
Majors NST
Moz Moz
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Source: SNL
- Includes: Goldcorp, Barrick, Newmont, Newcrest, Agnico Eagle, Kinross, Yamana, Anglogold, Goldfields and Harmony
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Production amongst the majors is set to decline over the next three years by 8%, whilst NST is growing gold production by 20% in the same period and with the potential to outperform Production centres with scale (+200,000ozpa) and exploration potential will be increasingly more valuable
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Cumulative Majors Forecast v NST^ Production Forecast
600
30 600
501 500 500
29
450
28 8% Decline
27 300
26
150
25
24 0
2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E
Majors NST
Moz Koz
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- Includes: Goldcorp, Barrick, Newmont, Newcrest, Agnico Eagle, Kinross, Yamana, Anglogold, Goldfields and Harmony. Production for Anglogold, Kinross, Newcrest, Goldfields and Harmony is assumed flat from 2016E, 2017E and 2018E.
^ NST Forecast production assumes the mid point of guidance in 2017E and excludes ounces mined from the divested Plutonic mine.
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Total gold production of 485,000-515,000oz at an AISC of A$1,000-A$1,050/oz A$130M to be spent on investing capital following on from the great successes in FY16 A$60M for targeted drilling to bring more Resources into mine plans and convert discoveries into Resources A$70M for Investing/Expansion capital expenditure to bring future deposits on line and lift group production
NST will continue to benefit from the lowest level of capital intensity in the global gold sector; this investment will underpin NST’s sector leading return on equity and return on invested capital
Production is set to rise 20% to an annualised rate of 600,000oz in 2018; with potential on the upside FY17 production guidance on a per asset basis as below:
| FY2017 | Production | Production | AISC | AISC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance Range | Oz | Oz | A$/oz | A$/oz | |
| Jundee | 220,000 | 230,000 | 1,000 | 1,050 | |
| Kalgoorlie Operations | 200,000 | 210,000 | 950 | 1,000 | |
| Paulsens | 65,000 | 75,000 | 1,200 | 1,250 | |
| Group NST | 485,000 | 515,000 | 1,000 | 1,050 |
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FY16: Resources 1.25Moz and Reserves up 21% to 720,000oz, even after mining 228koz FY16: 210,000oz sold at an AISC of A$1,007/oz
FY17: Guidance 220,000-230,000oz at an AISC of A$1,000-A$1,050/oz 6.75Moz of continuous gold production over the past 21 years, average of 320kozpa with a peak year of 410koz
Opportunities to expand production from known sources; increase mill capacity, bring recent underground discoveries into production, develop satellite open pits and third party sources
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FY16: Resources 3.6Moz, up 17% and Reserves up 0.9Moz up 48%, after mining 216koz FY16: 207,000oz sold at an AISC of A$837/oz
FY17: Guidance 200,000-210,000oz at an AISC of A$950-A$1,000/oz 6.45Moz of gold production over the past 23 years, average of 280kozpa with a peak year of 370koz Significant opportunities to expand production from known sources; expand at Kundana JV, extend Kanowna at depth and mine Velvet discovery, bring 100% owned Kundana mines back into production and develop satellite pits
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FY16: Resources 0.3Moz and Reserves 0.1Moz, after mining 91koz FY16: 80,000oz sold at an AISC of A$1,099/oz FY17: Guidance 65,000-75,000oz at AISC of A$1,200-A$1,250/oz 0.85Moz of continuous gold production over the past 11 years, averaged of 75kozpa with a peak year of 100koz
Record cash flow achieved in FY16 since mine commenced in 2005
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Previous Newmont asset which produced 2.1Moz over 18 years to 2005, average of 120kozpa with a peak year of 170koz; only mined mineralisation via pits to a deep of <125m Production ceased after mining of the Groundrush pit, where 610koz at 4.3gpt was recovered over a 4 year period
The past 5 years has seen A$40M invested at Groundrush in exploration, drilling and feasibility studies with a current Resource of 1.1Moz
Plan this year is to refurbish the plant to obtain our 60% joint venture interest Has the potential to be a 120-150koz per annum producing asset (100%) from 2018 onwards
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Highly profitable : Net profit after tax up 65% to A$151.4M in FY16; underlying free cash flow of A$224.3M; dividends up 40% from A5¢ps to A7¢ps Strong balance sheet : no debt; A$350M in cash & equivalents (30 Sep 2016) Emphasis on financial returns : Past 5 years average TSR of 52% & Return on Equity of 30%
One of the few ASX-listed gold miners with critical mass and asset diversity : forecast production of 485koz-515koz in FY17 at an AISC of A$1,000A$1,050/oz, margin of +A$550/oz at the current gold price, with production rising to 600koz per annum from CY18 onwards
Record of strong growth – with much more to come : Concentrated centres strategy to drive increased production and a simplified business model; increasingly valuable
Aggressive exploration strategy delivering outstanding results; total Resources rose to 9.25Moz in FY16 (after depletion); average Reserve cost of discovery just A$50/oz; a further four discoveries not included in FY16 estimate, A$60M spend for FY17 Committed A$70M to expansion capital in FY17; this will underpin growth in production
Strong management team , including many former contracting executives
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Email – [email protected] / Website – www.nsrltd.com