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Masterflex SE — Investor Presentation 2020
Feb 28, 2020
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Investor Presentation
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Analysts' and Investors' Call 2020
Good progress towards 2020 ambition – Exploiting opportunities in an improving market environment
28 February 2020
Please note: Presentation based on 2019 preliminary figures Image: Klaus Ohlenschläger / dpa Picture Alliance
Analysts' and Investors' Call 2020
Good progress towards 2020 ambition Joachim Wenning
Group finance and risk Christoph Jurecka
ERGO Markus Rieß
information
Reinsurance Torsten Jeworrek
Strong performance in 2019
IFRS net income
€2.7bn (€2.3bn) Exceeds initial guidance of €2.5bn
9.2%(8.4%) Above cost of capital Return on Equity
237%(245%) Well above target capitalisation Solvency II ratio
€9.80 (€9.25) High pay-out to shareholders Dividend per share 1
Ongoing business and earnings growth supports 2020 ambition
Reinsurance – Strategic growth initiatives well on track
2018 2019
- Consolidate top position in mature markets
-
Smart growth in select emerging markets
-
Launch of voluntary programme reduction of ~350 FTEs
- Cost savings of ~€200m by 2020
-
Disposal of MSP Underwriting and Ellipse
-
Push new business models relayr acquisition to strengthen IoT offering
- Data-driven solutions, e.g. Realytix
-
InsurTech platform via Digital Partners
-
Growth initiatives in P-C paying off (esp. in the US and Asia) – GWP +8%1
- Strong new business generation in Life and Health continues
- MR Specialty Insurance established
- Voluntary programme successfully completed, cost savings on track
- Re-engineering and automation of accounting processes (~100 FTEs)
- Global single-risk unit established, pooling together ~560 employees
- Create new income streams in the Canadian group insurance market
- Cyber insurance premiums up 27%1
- Digital Partners premiums doubled
2020
Streamline processes towards business and execution
ERGO – Sustainably increasing profitability
- ESP2 ahead of financial targets
- Tied agent productivity significantly increased by 20%1
| modular product design |
|---|
- Cost savings of €174m achieved ▪ Simplification of products, e.g. full
- Fully separated traditional life book
- Strategic investments in mobility ecosystem startups, e.g. ridecell
- Transformation of customer interaction 30%1 user increase of customer selfservice portal
-
Nexible doubles number of policies
-
ESP2 ahead of financial targets
- Tied agent productivity further improved by 18%1
- Cost savings of €234m achieved
- International portfolio streamlining finalised – 18 entities sold in total
- New life offerings through unified risk carrier – double-digit APE growth
- B2B2C mobility cooperation strategy expanded
- Digital process automation scaled up first relevant AI applications, 70+ bots
- Minority stake in Next Insurance3
Successful completion of ESP2
2020
Business and earnings focus – Gradually increasing risk appetite in underwriting where opportunities are good
23.9 26.7 28.4 6.3 7.6 8.8 2017 2018 2019 GWP SCR 31% 28% 26%
Gross premium written Solvency capital requirements
- Disciplined growth in P-C Re in select mature/emerging markets and business lines with unchanged risk limits and in line with risk-bearing capacity (EOF) …
- … taking advantage of rising rates in more capital intensive but increasingly profitable – nat cat lines
- Expansion of Risk Solutions business with favourable risk/return profile
- Positive earnings trajectory in L/H Re to stabilise tendency towards higher volatility in P-C
- Further diversification due to ERGO's growing German P-C and international operations
- Risk management is key: cautious expansion of new lines of business (e.g. cyber) while managing hot-spot areas (e.g. US casualty)
Continued diversification of our global footprint provides flexibility and increases competitiveness
Balancing growth and risk in property-casualty1
New organisational set-up in investments aims to generate higher returns
Streamlining the organisation Improving risk-return profile
Group approach One consistent investment strategy across the Group
Best ownership
Assigning investment mandates either in-house or to specialised third parties
Close to business
Combining investment and underwriting expertise
Well on track towards best-practice investment processes
Strategic level
Further expand asset classes that still have attractive returns, e.g. illiquid assets such as infrastructure and private equity/debt
Tactical allocation
Actively managing our portfolio by using trading ranges and incorporating external managers
Further diversification
Continuously improving the riskreturn profile to limit downside
Identify untapped return potential without changing the overall risk
Systematically integrating sustainability criteria when creating value – Key achievements in 2019
Enabling new technologies for a low-carbon economy
- Strong growth in innovative insurance solutions for new technologies, e.g. battery storage
- Invested capital in renewable energies: €1.6bn (targeting €2.8bn)
- Increase in green bonds to €1.3bn
Climate-neutral investment portfolio by 2050
▪ Munich Re joins the UN-convened Net-zero Asset Owner Alliance
Consequently improving risk assessment also for the industry, e.g.
- Munich Re's Wildfire Risk Score supports clients in evaluating wildfire risks in North America
- Driving industry standards for climate risk management via UNEP FI PSI1 Working Group on TCFD2recommendations
Sustainability risk assessment across all asset classes at Munich Re
▪ Sustainability ratio well above 80%
Top positions in major SRI ratings
DVFA Scorecard for Corporate Governance Second among DAX companies "Outstanding"
Shareholders participate in our earnings growth
… supports attractive shareholder returns3
1 Subject to the approval of the Supervisory Board and the Annual General Meeting. 2 As at end of February 2020. 2 Total shareholder return 1.1. – 31.12.2019. Peers: Allianz, Axa, Generali, Hannover Re, Scor, Swiss Re, Zurich. Source: Datastream.
Outlook 2020
Gross premiums written ~€52bn Group
Net result ~€2.8bn Return on investment ~3%
ERGO
Gross premiums written ~>€17.5bn
Net result ~€530m P-C Germany ~92% Combined ratio
International ~94%
Reinsurance
Gross premiums written
~€34bn
Net result ~€2.3bn Combined ratio Property-casualty
~97%
Based on new calculation method of cost allocation
Technical result, incl. fee income Life and Health
~€550m
Munich Re Investor Day Presentation of business ambition beyond 2020
8 December 2020
Group finance and risk
Financial results 2019 – Strong earnings despite high large losses and low/negative interest rates
- Earnings growth in Reinsurance despite challenging Q4 improved underlying C/R of ~98-99%
- ERGO contributing €440m ahead of its ESP targets
- High investment result (RoI: 3.2%) and low tax expenses
- Decline in HGB result due to lower underwriting result and higher tax expenses …
- … partially offset by strong investment result
- Distributable earnings support continuation of attractive capital management returns
- Well above target capitalisation
- High economic earnings1 of >€7bn compensate for …
- … increase of required capital due to business growth and further decline of interest rates
IFRS result Q4 2019 – Major drivers
€217m (€238m) Net income
Reinsurance: €116m FX losses:
High large losses in P-C and strengthening of disability assumptions in Australian life business (approx. –€200m)
P-C Re C/R: 112.5% – Major-loss ratio: 27.4% Reserve releases1 : 7.1%
L/H Re technical result including fee income: €70m
€1,965m (€1,661m) Investment result Return on investment
(€335m)
–€225m
Technical result
3.1%
ERGO: €101m
Fully in line with run-rate of FY guidance
–€241m
Tax income: €127m
ERGO P-C Germany C/R: 93.2%
ERGO International C/R: 94.8%
Disposal gains overcompensate for derivative losses Reinvestment yield slightly down to 1.9% due to investments in shorter maturities in Q4
IFRS result FY 2019 – Operating performance supported by strong balance sheet
Prudent reserving protecting balance sheet against negative surprises while continuously contributing to earnings strength
Managing industry hot spots Munich Re impact
Asbestos Complex litigation, changes in legal and regulatory environment
US workers' comp.
High losses for reinsurers in business underwritten during late 90s; significant late-loss emergence
De-risking with large claims settlements in the past and very strong survival ratio
Prudent reserving situation allowed for reserve releases again in 2019
US liability
High litigation risk and increasing social-inflation trends
Worsening loss trends in selected portfolios, continuous and pro-active strengthening of reserves to ensure prudence level
Ongoing reserve releases1
Positive claims experience by far exceeding adverse development in selected hot-spot areas
Investment return – Resilience to low interest rates expected to persist
2016 2017 2018 2019
German GAAP (HGB) – Capital repatriation well funded despite decline of distributable earnings
HGB result below capital repatriation
Sound economic capitalisation continues to support our capitalmanagement strategy – First-time application of VA for four ERGO entities
1 Parallel shift until last liquid point, extrapolation to unchanged UFR. 2 Based on 200-year event. 3 SII ratio includes volatility adjustment for ERGO Leben, Victoria Leben, ERGO Belgium and DKV Belgium. VA impact in 2019 ~6%-pts.
SCR development – Balanced risk profile between insurance and investment risks maintained
SCR increase largely driven by selective business growth and low interest rates €bn
Selected changes in disclosure as from Q1 2020 to increase comparability across segments and peers
- Focus on economic value creation, stronger consideration of IFRS
- Some inconsistency of KPIs across segments
- Most peers allocate some costs outside admin costs
Current situation Changes as from Q1 20201
- IFRS ROE1 to replace external RORAC
- Harmonise allocation of admin costs between ERGO and Reinsurance2
- Reallocation of some admin costs affecting technical and investment result3
- No impact on operating result
- P-C Re combined ratio reduces by approx. 0.5%-pt. to ~1%-pt.
- Some costs, especially related to Strategy Programme (e.g. project costs) accounted for as non-operating, albeit being rather operating
- Allocation of respective costs to other operating result
- Decline of operating result, other nonoperating result increases accordingly
ERGO
| Actual 2018 |
Guidance 2019 |
Actual 2019 |
ESP guidance 20202 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total premiums | €18.7bn | ~€18.5bn1 | €18.9bn | ~€18.5bn |
| Net profit | €412m | ~€400m1 | €440m | ~€530m |
| Investments (net, accumulated) |
€597m | €908m2 | €770m | €1,008m |
| Total cost savings (net, accumulated) |
€174m | €227m2 | €234m | €279m |
| Combined ratio P-C Germany |
96.0% | ~93%1 | 92.3% | 92% |
1 From Annual Report 2018. 2 ESP guidance (total premiums adjusted for Munich Health integration and portfolio streamlining). 28 February 2020
ERGO Strategy Programme – Progress in focus areas
Germany
- Product portfolio optimisation continued, simplified product approach shows first results
- Sales increased by ~6%1 ; tied-agent productivity further improved (~18%1,2)
- Progress in hybrid customer business model:
- ERGO Direkt, ERV and D.A.S. Germany unified in one brand ERGO; modern OneWebsite "Ergo.de" launched
- Integrated campaigns performed based on new CRM analytics – leads to tied agents significantly increased (>230k, +330%1 )
- Registered customer portal users reached one million (2018: 900k users)
Digital Ventures
- nexible
- Growth continued (~62k policies; +23%1 ; ~100k risks insured)
- Focus on process optimization after successful launch
- ERGO Mobility Solutions
- Cooperation strategy successfully expanded
- SAP platform for B2B2C mobility business launched
- Robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI): Process automation scaled up; more than 70 Bots and first AI applications in operation
International
- High earnings contribution and profitability in core markets continued
- Top 5 positions in core markets maintained
- Footprint in emerging markets expanding, e.g. regional expansion in China; merger in India leading to increasing business opportunities
- International portfolio streamlining finalised while maintaining strong earnings level; sale of 18 subsidiaries completed3
Unlocking further business potential through continued technical integration of products into omni-channel sales system (e.g. health)
Technology
Delivery volume of Digital IT significantly increased while improving efficiency and time-to-market (e.g. OneWebsite, new KPI cockpit for tied agents)
Integrated target IT architecture across ERGO brands currently in implementation
ERGO Group – Key financials 2019
Group
GWP Net result 412 440 2018 2019 +7% €17.5bn (€17.4bn)1 €440m (€412m)
L&H Germany P-C Germany International
€9.2bn (€9.3bn) Growth in Life new book partially compensates for back-book attrition; positive development in Health
€187m (€264m)
Adjusted for one-off in 2019, net profit in Life increased; ongoing high Health contribution
Return on investment %
€148m (€45m)
Significant improvement of technical result
commercial and retail business
€4.7bn (€4.6bn)1 Premiums increased in core markets
€105m (€103m)
Good operating performance offsets divestment effects
Life and Health Germany – Addressing low-interest-rate environment in Life
New business (APE)
Capital-market related
Biometric
New book
- ERGO Vorsorge as unified risk carrier for new product offering through merger1
- Profitable new business concentrating on biometric offers and products with significantly reduced market risk
- Double-digit APE growth, mainly driven by capital-market related2 products
- Already substantial share of Life Germany premiums (~20%)
29 104
44%
71% 56% 59%
EDL 2018
17%
2018 2019
+29%
134
41%
Back book
- Progress in portfolio migration onto new IT platform
- Foundation for TPA business model set through additional sales joint venture with IBM
- Resilient investment yields exceeding guarantee obligations (incl. ZZR), total yield even higher
- Measures to mitigate interest-rate risks continued, e.g. hedging and interest-rate reinsurance
75 29% 83%
€m
New book 2018
Life and Health Germany – Maintaining leading positions in Health
€bn3
Business development on track
- Strong and sustainable earnings contribution
- Focus on profitable and low-risk supplementary insurance without ageing reserves
- Launch of integrated mobile application "Meine DKV"
Extension of market leading position in supplementary insurance
- Market leader with >20% market share2 ; strong new business development
- Expansion in long-term care and dental insurance
- Further integration of on- and offline sales channels with positive impact on new business
Health Germany €5.6bn1 (60%)
Property-casualty Germany – Ongoing profitable premium growth
Business development on track
- Strong premium growth in 2019 increases in commercial and retail
- Simplified product approach and process optimisation with first successes:
- Successful renewal of new motor insurance – simplified product approach continued with legal protection and business content insurance
- Digitalisation of claims processes with focus on speed and improved efficiency in motor completed; customer satisfaction increased
2020 level already almost achieved in 2019
- Sustainable improvement in 2019 driven by
- Reduction of claims ratio: favourable claims development in basic losses driven by improved underwriting (esp. commercial lines) and claims management (esp. motor) as well as lower nat-cat and man-made losses
- Improvement of cost ratio: stable cost development despite strong growth and supported by reduced fixed cost level
96
96.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
▪ Lowest combined ratio since 2011
99
98
%
97.0 97.5
Combined ratio
93
92.3
92
ESP guidance Actual
International – Sustainable increase of profitability
ERGO
- Premium increase1 in both core and growth markets
- Strong earnings level continued despite of disposal effects
- Continuous improvement of combined ratio supported by already achieved sustainable cost savings of €35m (net, accumulated)
Successful expansion in selected growth markets
- India (P-C, Health): HDFC ERGO with substantial premium growth (+8%3 ); announced merger with Apollo Munich Health will create second-largest private accident/health insurer
- China (Life): Significant premium increase (+48%3 ); regional presence expanded to Hebei in 2019, third province after Shandong and Jiangsu
2016 2017 2018 2019
95.3
94.6 94.3
98.0
Reinsurance
Image: John Lund Getty Images
Property-casualty – Earnings growth fully supports the 2020 ambition
€1,562m(€1,135m) Net result 101.0% (99.4%)
- Strong volume increase by almost €2bn earnings trajectory supported by growth from renewals and strategic initiatives
- Overall sound underlying profitability of portfolio – comfortably exceeding cost of capital
- High nat cat (esp. typhoons in Japan) and man-made claims, particularly in Q4
- Strong investment result, incl. disposal gains
- Normalised for single large events (e.g. aerospace) positive development of profitability in Risk Solutions business
- Support from low tax expenses
Combined ratio
- Major losses (15.2%) above average
- Underlying combined ratio ~98–99%, slightly elevated due to non-outlier losses, higher admin expenses and cautious loss picks
5.6% (4.6%) Reserve releases1
- Sustained favourable reserve development – releases exceed last year's level in absolute and relative terms
- Confidence level preserved showing resilience as positive claims experience exceeds adverse development in selected hot-spot areas
Technical
€456m(€584m)
- On aggregate positive claims experience
- Strong contribution from new business and positive impact from restructuring of certain large treaties
- Negative impact from reserve review in Australia; overall global reserve position considered strong
- Strain on technical result from restructuring of asset portfolio in Canada
- Positive 2020 outlook: vital new business proposition and earnings stabilisation from 2019 inforce management and reserve review
result1 €706m(€729m) result
- Decline of technical result
- High investment result driven by restructuring of assets in Canada, overcompensating strain on technical result
New business contribution
Net
- Again high level
- Strong traditional business development in North America and Asia
-
FinMoRe with ongoing strong demand
-
Sustainable new business proposition and active portfolio management 1 Effectively serving
- our clients and strengthening the business model 2 Reinforcing
- underlying profitability and growth
- 3 Building a diversified profit base shaping and seizing opportunities in the digital transformation of the (re)insurance industry 4
1 Strong footprint in all major markets
Canada (€1.7bn / 14%)
- Attractive margins despite competitive environment
- Maintain leadership position in traditional business
- Develop footprint in Group business
USA (€2.9bn / 25%)
- Solid position among market leaders
- Further develop FinMoRe business and predictive analytics to foster growth
- Attractive risk-return profile of new business
- Successful inforce management execution
Continental Europe (€1.0bn / 9%)
- Sound but stagnating traditional business overall
- Demand for tailor-made FinMoRe solutions
UK / Ireland (€1.8bn / 15%)
- Successful FinMoRe and longevity proposition
- Margins in protection business remain unattractive
- Organisational set-up ready for Brexit
Asia / MENA (€3.0bn / 26%)
- Pleasing development of new business, including vital pipeline of FinMoRe solutions
- Substantial share of health reinsurance
- Product trends to be monitored closely, particularly in critical illness
Australia (€0.8bn / 7%)
- State of disability market remains an area of concern
- Strengthening of assumptions reflecting recent experience – in Q4 technical result impact of ~–€200m
- Rehabilitation of in-force top priority
- Highly selective new business proposition
1 Strong new business generation continues – Portfolio composition fosters steady earnings growth
Core
Strong footprint in traditional reinsurance
In-depth expertise in risk assessment and management Fundament of earnings generation
Portfolio management
Australian disability portfolio US pre-2009 mortality block
Improves earnings stability 450 475 500 ~€550m
2017 2018 2019 2020e
Technical result, incl. fee income
Ambition2
Growth
Leading digital services New (re-) insurance products Established growth areas1 Risk-related services
Safeguards earnings progress
2 January renewals 2020 – Overall positive outcome
Further improving environment – uneven distribution across lines and geographies
Positive trends for loss-affected business and specialty lines
Alternative capital: volume stagnation – some strain in retro markets
Primary markets for commercial single risk and specialty lines developing favourably
Cautiously optimistic outlook on upcoming treaty renewals
Market developments Munich Re January renewals
Overall price increases overcompensating loss-trend expectations
Flat pricing in Asia (ex Japan), distinct price increases in Europe
Worldwide and North American business with stronger rate development
Business expansion for selected markets – top-line growth driven by specialty lines and Europe/Asia
Actively giving up business not meeting our criteria, e.g. casualty with US clients
Continued disciplined portfolio management
2 Select growth in firming market environment
January renewals 2020
| % | 100 | –10.3 | 89.7 | +5.3 | +9.3 | 104.4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | 10,205 | –1,046 | 9,159 | +545 | +950 | 10,655 | |
| Change in premium | +4.4% | ||||||
| Thereof price movement1 | ~ 1.2% | ||||||
| Thereof change in exposure | for our share | +3.2% | |||||
| Total renewable from 1 January |
Cancelled | Renewed | Increase on renewable |
New business |
Estimated outcome |
1 Price movement is risk-adjusted, i.e. includes claims inflation/loss trend and is adjusted for portfolio mix effects. Furthermore, price movement is calculated on a wing-to-wing basis (including cancelled and new business).
2 Growth initiatives gaining traction – Profitable business expansion
Gross premiums written1 €bn
Mature markets2
France: Successful re-entry and already ahead of plan, further strengthened as at 1.1.2020, now >€300m premiums
Global Clients: Growth in longstanding relationships, focus on balanced portfolios and adequate reflection of client strength
US: Selective expansion in local or regional business, when pricing and risk relation deemed good, cautious on casualty
Japan: Expansion of nat cat business reacting to increasing rates in wake of recent typhoons
Emerging markets2
India: Executing growth strategy and broadening offer successful, leading to diversified portfolio now >€300m premiums
Latin America: Growing in line with our ambition and market position with existing partners and new business
Risk Solutions business2 +4% +21% +14%
F&C: Direct Property and Energy business seizing market opportunities to write more business at hardening terms and better rates
AMIG: Transformation efforts bearing fruit and permitting growth of 17%, well above market average
Expansion of nat cat business
US
2 Growth areas – Expansion of nat cat business globally, but locally selective based on risk appetite and terms
nat cat Secondary perils, e.g. wildfire, only written with material price increases, otherwise reduced appetite in reinsurance for US and global clients
US hurricane Reinsurance with selective increase and opportunities written, e.g. in Florida – also given up business in January renewals, which did not meet expectations
Japan Wind prices better after Jebi and Trami, therefore exposure slightly increased
Caribbean markets After strong hit in the Bahamas (Dorian), acutely aware of need for appropriate cover, thus willing to accept material price increases
Risk Solutions Given loss experience 2017–2019, all primary units profiting from the primary market hardening and certain capacity retreat, e.g. F&C direct
2 US casualty – Sustaining a robust portfolio
Global traditional casualty book1
US traditional casualty book1 approx. 40% of global traditional casualty book % %
- Additional casualty premium via Risk Solutions business of ~€900m (thereof ~€750m US) …
-
… providing balance for the overall US casualty book with very high share of smaller commercial and personal lines business
-
Munich Re with early response in portfolio management and pricing
- Loss drivers (social inflation) identified and being addressed, risk appetite clearly defined and coverage-specific restrictions for critical exposures stated in underwriting best practices
- Personal lines business minimally exposed to social inflation
- Proportional business >90%
3 Risk Solutions – 2019 with another step back to target profitability
Gross premiums written Combined ratio
€5.0bn (€4.3bn)
Capturing profitable growth opportunities
Normalised for large losses (aerospace) C/R in line with mid-nineties ambition (elevated prior to 2019 due to attritional losses)
American Modern
- Transformation investments bearing fruit with growth of 17%1 , showing attractiveness of new product suite
- One-off IT costs and business run-off partly impact the result
- Combined ratio of 88% confirms earnings potential of the unit
Facultative & Corporate
- Good and profitable market position confirmed by a 93% C/R in 2019 – following a period affected by severe outlier events
- Premiums with strong growth above expectation, particularly in property, leading to an increase of 35%1
Aerospace
100.7% (103.4%)
- Unusual accumulation of large-loss events for Space and Aviation business leading to a C/R of 166%. Market materially reshaped after these events allowing for positive outlook
- Growing premium due to better market conditions and an improving competitive landscape by 20% in 2019 already. Further improvement expected for 2020
4 We focus on tangible business impact – Innovative and more disruptive offerings are gaining traction
Munich Re strategic advantages … Domain expertise in underwriting, claims, risk management
Efficient access to new solutions Global presence Financial strength
Strong brand and reputation
No IT legacy
… foster creation of new strategic options
Reshuffling the value chain
- Digital cooperation models (e.g. Digital Partners)
- IoT1 applications and services (e.g. MHP/ Porsche cooperation)
- Munich Re New Ventures Parachute platform Details next slides
Expanding the boundaries of insurability
- Cyber (re)insurance: GWP 2019 US\$ 604m, good profitability, accumulation control Details
- Cyber embedded service solutions and growing cooperation network (e.g. DXC Technology) next slides
- Insurance of AI technology
Data-driven solutions
- Newly developed risk scores (e.g. climate risk)
- Digitally augmented underwriting/claims solutions for our cedants (e.g. Munich Engine, Realytix, Improvex)
Investments in technology and people
Strategic investments in partnerships
4 Munich Re New Ventures – Tapping opportunities in the CAD 44bn Canadian group insurance market
Bringing concrete solutions to our clients with the vision to enhance the Group insurance market and create new income streams
- Grow the voluntary group benefits market with a B2B2C model
- Improve scalability and efficiency of mandatory and voluntary products by straight-through processing
- Ensure scalability and expansion in other markets and product lines where possible
Reinsurance – Cyber (re)insurance
4 Cyber insurance – Continuously one of Munich Re's main strategic growth areas
Gross premiums written cyber portfolio1 US\$ m
- Profitable growth in line with strategy and ambition
-
Cautious participation in a further growing market balancing growth and stringent risk management – market share of up to 10%
-
Early and full commitment to cyber allows us to shape the market and results in a lead position
- Good profitability of the cyber insurance book
- Competitive knowledge advantage and further investments in leading cyber expertise (~100 FTE)
- Further establishing relevant and efficient partnerships and detecting new distribution channels
- Actively addressing the topic silent cyber, managing our own exposure and creating new business by supporting clients
- Accumulation management is constantly challenged, further refined and state of the art
Additional information
Segment income statement Q4 2019
| €m | Reinsurance L/H1 |
Reinsurance P-C |
ERGO L/H Germany |
ERGO P-C Germany |
ERGO International |
Total Q4 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross premiums written | 3,091 | 5,172 | 2,327 | 695 | 1,256 | 12,540 |
| Net earned premiums | 2,778 | 5,347 | 2,331 | 863 | 1,195 | 12,515 |
| Income from technical interest | 155 | 327 | 849 | 18 | 127 | 1,477 |
| Net expenses for claims and benefits | –2,315 | –3,947 | –2,752 | –529 | –919 | –10,462 |
| Net operating expenses | –589 | –2,071 | –392 | –281 | –422 | –3,754 |
| Technical result | 30 | –344 | 36 | 72 | –20 | –225 |
| Investment result | 225 | 623 | 932 | 52 | 132 | 1,965 |
| Insurance related-investment result | 11 | 39 | 173 | 0 | 69 | 292 |
| Other operating result | 47 | –20 | –17 | 14 | 2 | 25 |
| Deduction of income from technical interest | –155 | –327 | –849 | –18 | –127 | –1,477 |
| Non-technical result | 128 | 315 | 239 | 48 | 77 | 805 |
| Operating result | 158 | –30 | 275 | 120 | 57 | 580 |
| Other non-operating result | 0 | –3 | –93 | –64 | –32 | –193 |
| Currency result | –36 | –102 | –95 | –6 | –1 | –241 |
| Net finance costs | –10 | –33 | –6 | –1 | –7 | –56 |
| Taxes on income | –23 | 195 | –37 | –5 | –4 | 127 |
| Net result | 89 | 27 | 44 | 43 | 13 | 217 |
Segment income statement 2019
| €m | Reinsurance L/H1 |
Reinsurance P-C |
ERGO L/H Germany |
ERGO P-C Germany |
ERGO International |
Total 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross premiums written | 11,716 | 22,091 | 9,238 | 3,500 | 4,912 | 51,457 |
| Net earned premiums | 10,540 | 20,566 | 9,191 | 3,362 | 4,621 | 48,280 |
| Income from technical interest | 652 | 1,215 | 4,196 | 75 | 591 | 6,729 |
| Net expenses for claims and benefits | –8,580 | –13,714 | –11,701 | –2,056 | –3,633 | –39,685 |
| Net operating expenses | –2,283 | –7,066 | –1,415 | –1,077 | –1,408 | –13,249 |
| Technical result | 329 | 1,000 | 271 | 303 | 171 | 2,074 |
| Investment result | 1,080 | 2,152 | 3,916 | 157 | 430 | 7,737 |
| Insurance related-investment result | 30 | 65 | 751 | 0 | 330 | 1,176 |
| Other operating result | 62 | –238 | –61 | 22 | –39 | –254 |
| Deduction of income from technical interest | –652 | –1,215 | –4,196 | –75 | –591 | –6,729 |
| Non-technical result | 520 | 763 | 410 | 105 | 131 | 1,930 |
| Operating result | 849 | 1,764 | 681 | 408 | 302 | 4,004 |
| Other non-operating result | –10 | –47 | –305 | –212 | –92 | –665 |
| Currency result | 47 | 149 | –41 | –24 | –59 | 73 |
| Net finance costs | –39 | –128 | –23 | –5 | –27 | –222 |
| Taxes on income | –142 | –176 | –127 | –19 | –19 | –483 |
| Net result | 706 | 1,562 | 187 | 148 | 105 | 2,707 |
IFRS P&L statements – Changes as from Q1 2020 Actual 2019 (restated)
Actual vs. analysts' consensus
| Operating result – | Actual vs. analysts' consensus1 | €m | Major developments in Q4 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | Consensus | Delta | Reinsurance Property-casualty | |
| Reinsurance Property-casualty | –30 | 251 | –281 | |
| Reinsurance Life and Health | 158 | 63 | 95 | |
| ERGO Life and Health Germany | 275 | 115 | 160 | Reinsurance Life and Health Technical result, incl. fee income of €70m; RoI: 3.1% |
| ERGO Property-casualty Germany | 120 | 84 | 36 | |
| ERGO International | 57 | 75 | –18 | ERGO Life and Health Germany |
| Operating result | 580 | 588 | –8 | one-off; RoI: 2.9% |
| ERGO Property-casualty Germany | ||||
| FX | –241 | |||
| Other | –249 | ERGO International | ||
| Taxes | 127 | |||
| Net result | 217 | 293 | –76 |
Reinsurance Property-casualty
Combined ratio: 112.5% (consensus: 105.1%) – major-loss ratio: 27.4%, reserve releases basic losses: 7.1%; RoI: 3.8%
Reinsurance Life and Health
Technical result, incl. fee income of €70m; RoI: 3.1%
ERGO Life and Health Germany
Policyholder participation in FX result and tax-related positive one-off; RoI: 2.9%
ERGO Property-casualty Germany
Combined ratio: 93.2% (consensus: 94.8%); RoI: 2.8%
ERGO International
Combined ratio: 94.8% (consensus: 98.0%); RoI: 2.8%
IFRS capital position
| Equity | €m | |
|---|---|---|
| Equity 31.12.2018 | 26,500 | Change in Q4 |
| Consolidated result | 2,707 | 217 |
| Changes | ||
| Dividend | –1,335 | 0 |
| Unrealised gains/losses | 3,661 | –1,078 |
| Exchange rates | 422 | –313 |
| Share buy-backs | –957 | –236 |
| Other | –423 | 407 |
| Equity 31.12.2019 | 30,576 | –1,003 |
Unrealised gains/losses Exchange rates
Fixed-interest securities 2019: +€2,672m Q4: –€1,195m
Non-fixed-interest securities
2019: +€992m Q4: +€119m
FX effect mainly driven by US\$
Subordinated debt
Equity
Premium development
Reconciliation of operating result with net result
Reconciliation of operating result with net result €m 2019 Q4 2019 Operating result 4,004 580 Other non-operating result –665 –193 Currency result 73 –241 Net finance costs –222 –56 Taxes on income –483 127 Net result 2,707 217
| Other non-operating result (€m) | 2019 | Q4 2019 | Tax rates (%) | 2019 | Q4 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill impairments | –1 | 0 | Group | 15.1 | –139.8 |
| Restructuring expenses | –60 | –4 | Reinsurance | 12.3 | 307.7 |
| Other | –605 | –189 | ERGO | 27.2 | 31.4 |
Very strong reserve position – Actual basic losses continue to be consistently below actuarial expectations
Reinsurance group – Comparison of incremental expected losses with actual reported losses1 €m
By exposure year By line of business
Legend: Green Actuals below expectation Red Actuals above expectation Solid line Actuals equal expectation Dotted line Actuals 50% above/below expectations
Positive run-off result despite reserve strengthening in selected portfolios without weakening resilience against future volatility
Ultimate losses1– Favourable actual vs. expected comparison facilitates ultimate reductions for prior years
| Accident year (AY) | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | ≤2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Total | |||
| 31.12.2009 | 53,838 | ▪ | Ultimate reductions in particular for basic losses |
||||||||||||
| 31.12.2010 | 53,118 | 13,517 | ▪ | Negative run-off in AY 2018 | |||||||||||
| 31.12.2011 | 52,226 | 13,707 | 17,594 | largely driven by adverse | |||||||||||
| 31.12.2012 | 51,079 | 13,585 | 17,745 | 14,520 | outlier development (e.g. | ||||||||||
| 31.12.2013 | 50,588 | 13,669 | 17,459 | 14,301 | 14,409 | Typhoon Jebi), and to a much smaller extent also |
|||||||||
| 31.12.2014 | 49,641 | 13,698 | 17,043 | 14,096 | 14,630 | 14,324 | impacted by prudent | ||||||||
| 31.12.2015 | 48,728 | 13,496 | 16,918 | 13,883 | 14,586 | 14,351 | 13,587 | reserving for US casualty loss trend |
|||||||
| 31.12.2016 | 48,380 | 13,270 | 16,446 | 13,848 | 14,291 | 14,328 | 13,640 | 14,486 | |||||||
| 31.12.2017 | 48,210 | 13,140 | 16,418 | 13,748 | 14,190 | 14,117 | 13,429 | 14,324 | 17,667 | ▪ | Reserve position remains strong |
||||
| 31.12.2018 | 47,495 | 12,971 | 16,124 | 13,488 | 13,917 | 13,851 | 13,219 | 14,366 | 17,693 | 17,907 | |||||
| 31.12.2019 | 46,377 | 12,915 | 15,855 | 13,254 | 13,765 | 13,668 | 13,068 | 14,196 | 17,563 | 18,773 | 18,928 | ||||
| CY 2018 run off change |
1,118 | 56 | 269 | 234 | 151 | 183 | 151 | 170 | 130 | -866 | – | 1,597 | Reinsurance2 ERGO |
€1,531m €66m |
|
| CY 2018 run off change (%) |
2.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -4.8 | – | 0.9 | |||
1 Basic and major losses; accident-year split partly based on approximations. Adjusted to exchange rates as at 31.12.2019. 2 Basic losses: €1,494m, major losses: €37m.
Response to benign emergence of basic losses in line with considered judgement
Actual vs. expected Changes in projection Business rationale
Releases follow favourable indications
- Positive actual-versus-expected indications
- Short-tail lines develop relatively quickly
- Releases spread across various property lines of business
Favourable loss development leads to release
- Favourable indications across all lines
- Reserve release primarily in credit and marine
Small releases despite favourable indications
- Deliberately small reserve release, despite favourable overall actual-versus-expected development
- Releases in motor and third-party liability
- Cautious reaction to signs of deterioration in selected casualty portfolios
Property-casualty provision for outstanding claims
By line of business Credit 3 (3) Other 6 (4) Third-party liability 37 (38) Fire 17 (17) Engineering 6 (6) Personal accident 4 (5) Marine 3 (3) TOTAL €50.7bn Motor 22 (22) Aviation 3 (2) % By maturity 5–10 years 12 (11) >15 years 4 (4) 0–1 years 35 (36) TOTAL €50.7bn 10–15 years 3 (4) % 1–2 years 20 (20) 2–3 years 12 (12) 3–4 years 8 (8) 4–5 years 5 (5)
Asbestos and environmental survival ratio 31 December 2019
Munich Re (Group) – Net definitive as at 31 December 20191 €m
Investment result
| Total return | –4.9% | 7.7% | 1.4% | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment result | 1,965 | 3.1% | 7,737 | 3.2% | 6,526 | 2.8% |
| Other income/expenses | –228 | –0.4% | –767 | –0.3% | –691 | –0.3% |
| Derivatives2 | –509 | –0.8% | –717 | –0.3% | 103 | 0.0% |
| Disposal gains/losses | 1,108 | 1.8% | 2,779 | 1.1% | 1,582 | 0.7% |
| Write-ups/write-downs | –24 | 0.0% | –309 | –0.1% | –1,054 | –0.5% |
| Regular income | 1,618 | 2.6% | 6,751 | 2.8% | 6,586 | 2.8% |
| €m | Q4 2019 | Return1 | 2019 | Return1 | 2018 | Return1 |
| 3-month reinvestment yield |
Q4 2019 | Write-ups/ write downs |
Disposal gains/ losses |
De rivatives |
2019 | Write-ups/ write downs |
Disposal gains/ losses |
De rivatives |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | 1.9% | Fixed income | –3 | 597 | –269 | Fixed income | –51 | 1,530 | 184 |
| Q3 2019 | 2.1% | Equities | –83 | 500 | –268 | Equities | –311 | 1,037 | –927 |
| Commodities/Inflation | 7 | 0 | 46 | Commodities/Inflation | 70 | 0 | 13 | ||
| Q2 2019 | 2.2% | Other | 55 | 11 | –18 | Other | –18 | 211 | 12 |
1 Annualised return on quarterly weighted investments (market values) in %. Impact from dividends in regular income: 0.2%-points in Q4 and 0.3%-points in Q1-4. 2 Result from derivatives without regular income and other income/expenses.
Return on investment by asset class and segment 2019
| %1 | Regular income |
Write-ups/ -downs |
Disposal result |
Extraord. derivative result |
Other inc./exp. |
RoI | ᴓ Market value (€m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afs fixed-income |
2.3 | –0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 130,076 |
| Afs non-fixed-income |
4.1 | –1.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 18,112 |
| Derivatives | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | –32.9 | –1.1 | –27.3 | 2,181 |
| Loans | 2.8 | –0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 65,979 |
| Real estate | 4.7 | –1.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 10,899 |
| Other2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | –4.5 | 0.1 | 16,416 |
| Total | 2.8 | –0.1 | 1.1 | –0.3 | –0.3 | 3.2 | 243,663 |
| Reinsurance | 2.9 | –0.1 | 1.2 | –0.1 | –0.4 | 3.5 | 91,991 |
| ERGO | 2.7 | –0.2 | 1.1 | –0.4 | –0.3 | 3.0 | 151,672 |
Return on investment Average
3.1%
Investment portfolio
%
Governments/ Semi-government
63 (64)
Cash/Other 1 (0)
1 Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. Fair values as at 31.12.2019 (31.12.2018). 2 Net of hedges: 6.4 (5.2%). 3 Deposits retained on assumed reinsurance, deposits with banks, investment funds (excl. equities), derivatives and investments in renewable energies and gold. 4 Non-fixed derivatives. 5 Non-fixed property funds and non-fixed bond funds
Pfandbriefe/ Covered bonds 41 (44 )
Governments/ Semi-government
41 (41)
Fixed-income portfolio Total
Fixed-income portfolio %
Bank bonds 1 (2)
Structured products 2 (2)
Loans to policyholders/ Mortgage loans 4 (4)
Cash/Other 5 (5)
Corporates 13 (12)
Pfandbriefe/ Covered bonds 21 (23)
Governments/ Semi-government 53 (53)
Fixed-income portfolio Total
Rating structure % TOTAL €207.9bn NR1 5 (5) BB 3 (3) BBB 12 (12)
A 13 (13)
Maturity structure
n.a. 3 (3)
10 years 34 (33)
7–10 years 15 (15)
| AAA | |
|---|---|
| 43 (43) |
|
| AA 24 |
|
| (25) | |
| % | |
| 0–1 years | |
| 9 (10) |
|
| 1–3 years | |
| 13 (13) |
%
3–5 years 13 (13) 5–7 years 13 (13)
| Regional breakdown | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without | With | Total | |||||||
| policyholder participation | 31.12.2019 | 31.12.2018 | |||||||
| Germany | 4.8 | 22.0 | 26.8 | 28.2 | |||||
| US | 14.0 | 1.7 | 15.6 | 14.3 | |||||
| France | 2.2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 8.1 | |||||
| UK | 3.1 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | |||||
| Canada | 4.1 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | |||||
| Netherlands | 1.4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | |||||
| Supranationals | 0.7 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | |||||
| Spain | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 | |||||
| Australia | 2.6 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | |||||
| Austria | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | |||||
| Belgium | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | |||||
| Ireland | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | |||||
| Poland | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | |||||
| Sweden | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | |||||
| Italy | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | |||||
| Other | 6.7 | 7.8 | 14.6 | 14.2 | |||||
| Total | 44.7 | 55.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. Fair values as at 31.12.2019 (31.12.2018). 1 Mainly loans to policyholders, mortgage loans and bank deposits.
Fixed-income portfolio Governments/semi-government
Rating structure % BB 2 (2) BBB 7 (7) A 16 (15) AA 32 (33) TOTAL €111.2bn
Maturity structure
10 years 44 (42)
7–10 years 15 (15)
| % | Regional breakdown |
|---|---|
AAA 43 (43)
0–1 years 9 (10) 1–3 years 11 (13) 3–5 years 11 (10) 5–7 years 11 (10)
%
| Without | With Total |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| policyholder participation | 31.12.2019 | 31.12.2018 | ||
| Germany | 3.1 | 20.8 | 23.9 | 25.1 |
| US | 15.2 | 1.3 | 16.5 | 15.6 |
| Supranationals | 1.3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| Canada | 5.8 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Spain | 1.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Belgium | 1.3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Australia | 4.0 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| France | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Poland | 2.3 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Austria | 0.5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| UK | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Finland | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Netherlands | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Ireland | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Italy | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Other | 7.6 | 6.5 | 14.1 | 13.0 |
| Total | 48.5 | 51.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Fixed-income portfolio |
|---|
| Pfandbriefe/covered bonds |
TOTAL €43.4bn NR 1 (1) BBB 0 (1) A 2 (4) AA 20 (21)
Maturity structure
10 years 21 (25)
7–10 years 21 (19)
| Rating structure |
% | Regional breakdown | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR 1 (1) |
AAA 77 (74) |
Germany | 31.12.2019 35.4 |
31.12.2018 37.7 |
|
| France | 19.5 | 19.7 | |||
| BBB | UK | 9.8 | 8.4 | ||
| 0 (1) |
TOTAL | Netherlands | 8.4 | 7.8 | |
| €43.4bn | Sweden | 5.9 | 6.0 | ||
| A | Norway | 5.4 | 5.7 | ||
| 2 (4) |
Spain | 1.8 | 2.0 | ||
| AA | Italy | 1.1 | 1.0 | ||
| Ireland | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||
| 20 (21) |
Other | 12.5 | 11.5 |
Cover pools %
Public 29 (29)
9 (10)
%
0–1 years 5 (7)
1–3 years 15 (12) 3–5 years 17 (18) 5–7 years 20 (19)
TOTAL €43.4bn Mixed and other
Mortgage 62 (61)
| Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. Fair values as at 31.12.2019 (31.12.2018). |
|
|---|---|
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -- |
Fixed-income portfolio Corporate bonds (excluding bank bonds)
Maturity structure TOTAL €26.5bn NR 0 (1) 10 years 24 (21) 7–10 years 12 (13)
| 5–7 years | |
|---|---|
| 15 | (16) |
| AVERAGE MATURITY 7.5 years |
|---|
| % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 31.12.2019 | 31.12.2018 | ||
| 13.7 | ||||
| Utilities | 13.6 | 16.2 | ||
| Oil and gas | 11.9 | |||
| Financial services | 9.6 | 9.0 | ||
| Telecommunications | 8.0 | 7.9 | ||
| BBB 61 (60) |
19 (20) |
Healthcare | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Technology | 6.0 | 4.8 | ||
| Food and beverages | 3.7 | |||
| 0–1 years | Automobiles | 3.9 | 3.0 | |
| Media | 3.6 | 4.1 | ||
| 1–3 years | Basic resources | 3.5 | 2.7 | |
| 7.5 years |
(19) | Personal and household goods | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| Construction | 2.8 | 3.1 | ||
| (22) | Other | 9.2 | 8.9 | |
| TOTAL €26.5bn AVERAGE MATURITY |
2 (2) AA 5 (4) A % 10 (10) 19 3–5 years 20 |
Sector breakdown Industrial goods and services |
14.2 10.9 4.0 |
Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. Fair values as at 31.12.2019 (31.12.2018).
Fixed-income portfolio Structured products
Structured products portfolio (at market values): Breakdown by rating and region €m
</bbb<>| Rating | Region | Market-to | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | <bbb< th=""> | NR | USA + RoW | Europe | Total | par | NR | USA + RoW | Europe | Total | par | ||||||
| ABS | Consumer-related ABS1 | 174 | 80 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 133 | 320 | 101% | |||||||||
| Corporate-related ABS2 | 0 | 7 | 188 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 202 | 235 | 100% | ||||||||||
| Subprime HEL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 95% | ||||||||||
| CDO/ CLN |
Subprime-related | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | |||||||||
| Non-subprime-related | 748 | 1,359 | 35 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 764 | 1,405 | 2,169 | 100% | ||||||||||
| MBS | Agency | 1,402 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,428 | 0 | 1,428 | 104% | |||||||||
| Non-agency prime |
4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 23 | 100% | ||||||||||
| Non-agency other (not subprime) |
101 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 110 | 129 | 100% | ||||||||||
| Commercial MBS | 446 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 438 | 32 | 470 | 104% | ||||||||||
| Total 31.12.2019 | 2,876 | 1,527 | 303 | 58 | 0 | 9 | 2,870 | 1,904 | 4,774 | 101% | ||||||||||
| In % | 60% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 60% | 40% | 100% | |||||||||||
| Total 31.12.2018 | 2,217 | 1,264 | 378 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2,107 | 1,840 | 3,947 | 100% |
1 Consumer loans, auto, credit cards, student loans. 2 Asset-backed CPs, business and corporate loans, commercial equipment. Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. Fair values as at 31.12.2019 (31.12.2018).
Fixed-income portfolio Bank bonds
Maturity structure
| % |
|---|
| 0–1 years 13 (25) |
| 1–3 years 40 (31) |
| 3–5 years |
| Rating structure |
% | Regional breakdown | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior bonds | Subordinated | Loss-bearing | 31.12.2019 | 31.12.2018 | |
| US | 26.1 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 35.4 | 43.4 |
| Canada | 11.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.4 | 5.4 |
| Germany | 4.9 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 10.2 | 11.8 |
| Ireland | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| UK | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| France | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| Netherlands | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Guernsey island | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Other | 12.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 14.3 | 13.1 |
Cover pools %
Loss-bearing1
6 (7)
Subordinated2 12 (13)
A 38 (40)
AA 17 (12)
30 (25)
AAA 1 (0)
TOTAL €3.0bn
Senior 82 (80)
Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. Fair values as at 31.12.2019 (31.12.2018). 1 Classified as Tier 1 and upper Tier 2 capital for Solvency purposes. 28 February 2020 2 Classified as lower Tier 2 and Tier 3 capital for Solvency purposes.
Sensitivities to interest rates, spreads and equity markets
| Sensitivity to risk-free interest rates – Basis points |
–50 | –25 | +50 | +100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in gross market value (€bn) | +9.1 | +4.4 | –8.3 | –15.7 |
| 1 Change in on-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn) |
+2.3 | +1.1 | –2.1 | –4.1 |
| 1 Change in off-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn) |
+0.4 | +0.2 | –0.4 | –0.7 |
| 1 P&L impact (€bn) |
+0.2 | +0.1 | –0.2 | –0.4 |
| Sensitivity to spreads2 (change in basis points) |
+50 | +100 | ||
| Change in gross market value (€bn) | –6.0 | –11.3 | ||
| 1 Change in on-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn) |
–1.4 | –2.8 | ||
| 1 Change in off-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn) |
–0.3 | –0.5 | ||
| 1 P&L impact (€bn) |
–0.1 | –0.2 | ||
| Sensitivity to equity and commodity markets3 | –30% | –10% | +10% | +30% |
| Change in gross market value (€bn) | –6.0 | –2.0 | +2.0 | +6.2 |
| Change in on-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn) 1 |
–1.4 | –0.6 | +0.9 | +2.7 |
| Change in off-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn) 1 |
–1.1 | –0.4 | +0.4 | +1.3 |
| P&L impact (€bn) 1 |
–1.5 | –0.3 | –0.0 | +0.1 |
1 Rough calculation with limited reliability assuming unchanged portfolio as at 31.12.2019. After rough estimation of policyholder participation and deferred tax; linearity of relations cannot be assumed. Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. 2 Sensitivities to changes of spreads are calculated for every category of fixedinterest securities, except government securities with AAA ratings. 3 Worst-case scenario assumed, including commodities: impairment as soon as market value is below acquisition cost. Approximation – not fully comparable with IFRS figures.
On- and off-balance-sheet reserves
| €m | 31.12. 2017 |
31.12. 2018 |
30.9. 2019 |
31.12. 2019 |
p in Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market value of investments | 231,885 | 231,876 | 253,521 | 247,310 | –6,210 |
| Total reserves | 25,395 | 22,002 | 38,148 | 33,120 | –5,029 |
| On-balance-sheet reserves | |||||
| Fixed-interest securities | 7,622 | 4,953 | 14,026 | 10,738 | –3,288 |
| Non-fixed-interest securities | 3,261 | 1,817 | 3,311 | 3,632 | 320 |
| Other on-balance-sheet reserves1 | 189 | 207 | 223 | 203 | –19 |
| Subtotal | 11,072 | 6,977 | 17,560 | 14,574 | –2,987 |
| Off-balance-sheet reserves | |||||
| Real estate2 | 2,744 | 4,769 | 4,941 | 5,600 | 659 |
| Loans3 | 10,788 | 9,453 | 14,897 | 12,147 | –2,750 |
| Associates | 792 | 803 | 750 | 799 | 49 |
| Subtotal | 14,323 | 15,024 | 20,588 | 18,546 | –2,042 |
| Reserve ratio | 11.0% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 13.4% |
1 Unrealised gains/losses from unconsolidated affiliated companies, valuation at equity and cash-flow hedging. 2 Excluding reserves from owner-occupied property. 3 Excluding insurance-related loans.
On- and off-balance-sheet reserves
| €m | On-balance-sheet reserves | Off-balance-sheet reserves1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total reserves (gross) |
14,574 | 18,546 | |
| Provision for deferred premium refunds | –6,200 | –10,861 | |
| Deferred tax | –1,782 | –2,348 | |
| Minority interests | –7 | 0 | |
| Consolidation and currency effects | –206 | 0 | |
| Shareholders' stake | 6,379 | 5,338 |
Breakdown of SCR – Increase driven by substantial business growth and lower interest rates
1 Capital requirements for associated insurance undertakings and other financial sectors, e.g. institutions for occupational retirement provisions.
Property-casualty risk – Increase mainly driven by business growth in P-C Reinsurance
Top scenario exposures (net of retrocession) – AggVaR1
- Exploiting opportunities in an improving market environment – exposure growth in all major scenarios in accordance with higher risk-bearing capacity (strongly increased EOF)
- Additional exposure expansion due to depreciation of euro
- Well-diversified cat portfolio across perils and regions
Life and Health risk Life and Health – VaR1 €bn Longevity Mortality Morbidity Health Other Total 1.6 1.5 4.3 3.6 3.4 2.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 6.4 5.3 2019 2018
Overall increase driven by
Reinsurance
Lower interest rates and increase in exposure, esp. US mortality business
ERGO Lower Euro interest rates
Market risk – Solvency capital requirement
Market risk – Interest-rate sensitivity
1 Fair values as at 31.12.2019 (31.12.2018): Market value change due to a parallel downward shift in yield curve by one basis point, considering the portfolio size of assets and liabilities (pre-tax). Negative net DV01 means rising interest rates are beneficial. 2 Liabilities comprise technical provisions according to Solvency II. 3 Figures for ERGO and consequently Munich Re Group include VA for Q4 2019. Historical values are not restated.
Operational risk
Operational risk scenarios1 – VaR €m
Integral part of the internal model
Internal control system implemented to actively manage operational risks for Munich Re (Group)
Overall no changes to quantitative assessment
Sensitivities of SII ratio
1 Parallel shift until last liquid point, extrapolation to unchanged UFR. 2 Based on CPI inflation. 3 Based on 200-year event.
Preliminary SII ratios of Munich Re and solo entities1
| €bn | EOF | SCR | S-II Ratio | S-II Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Model | (without TM2 ) |
(without TM2 ) |
(without TM2 ) |
(incl. TM2 ) |
| Munich Re | 41.5 | 17.5 | 237% | 274% |
| Munich Reinsurance Company | 41.9 | 17.5 | 239% | 276% |
| Munich Re of Malta | 3.0 | 0.7 | 431% | – |
| GLISE | 0.4 | 0.2 | 184% | – |
| ERGO Versicherung AG |
2.8 | 0.6 | 455% | – |
| DKV | 3.8 | 1.1 | 335% | – |
| Standard Formula | ||||
| ERGO Leben | 2.23 | 2.1 | 107% | 420% |
| Victoria Leben | 1.34 | 0.5 | 262% | 677% |
| ERGO Vorsorge Leben |
0.8 | 0.1 | 520% | – |
| ERGO Austria | 0.55 | 0.3 | 156% | 305% |
| ERGO Belgium Life | 0.8 | 0.3 | 259% | – |
| ERGO Poland P-C (PLN bn) | 2.6 | 1.7 | 148% | – |
1 Entities with internal model and selected companies with standard formula application. 2 Transitional measures. 3 Including transitional measures €6.4bn. 4 Including transitional measures €3.3bn. 5 Including transitional measures €0.9bn.
ERGO Life and Health Germany (1)
| Gross premiums written | €m | Major result drivers | €m | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 9,345 | Q4 2019 | Q4 2018 | p | 2019 | 2018 | p | ||
| Foreign exchange | 1 | Technical result | 36 | 94 | –58 | 271 | 552 | –281 | |
| Non-technical result | 239 | 118 | 120 | 410 | 238 | 172 | |||
| Divestments/investments | –5 | thereof investment result | 932 | 1,008 | –76 | 3,916 | 3,502 | 415 | |
| Organic change | –102 | Other | –231 | –147 | –84 | –494 | –527 | 33 | |
| 2019 | 9,238 | Net result | 44 | 66 | –22 | 187 | 264 | –77 | |
| Life and Health Germany (€m) |
Q4 2019 | Return1 | 2019 | Return1 | 2018 | Return1 | |||
| Regular income | 849 | 2.6% | 3,571 | 2.8% | 3,489 | 2.9% | |||
| Write-ups/write-downs | –69 | –0.2% | –249 | –0.2% | –387 | –0.3% | |||
| Disposal gains/losses | 611 | 1.9% | 1,439 | 1.1% | 650 | 0.5% | |||
| Derivatives2 | –362 | –1.1% | –499 | –0.4% | 83 | 0.1% | |||
| Other income/expenses | –97 | –0.3% | –345 | –0.3% | –333 | –0.3% | |||
| Investment result | 932 | 2.9% | 3,916 | 3.1% | 3,502 | 2.9% | |||
| Average market value | 129,142 | 125,982 | 120,251 |
1 Return on quarterly weighted investments (market values) in % p.a. 2 Result from derivatives without regular income and other income/expenses. 28 February 2020
ERGO Life and Health Germany (2) – Key figures
| Key figures1 % |
2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reinvestment yield | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Average yield | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| guarantee2 Average |
2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Key financials1 €bn |
2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free RfB | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Terminal bonus fund |
0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Unrealised gains |
10.4 | 9.4 | 13.3 |
| Accumulated ZZR | 5.0 | 5.4 | 6.2 |
€bn Life Germany Health Germany GWP – Market view3
Comprehensive insurance – ERGO number 2 in German market
Supplementary insurance – ERGO clear market leader
ERGO Property-casualty Germany (1)
| Gross premiums written | €m | Major result drivers | €m | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3,377 | Q4 2019 | Q4 2018 | p | 2019 | 2018 | p | |
| Foreign exchange | 1 | Technical result | 72 | 37 36 |
303 | 166 | 138 | |
| Non-technical result | 48 | 18 30 |
105 | 62 | 42 | |||
| Divestments/investments | 0 | thereof investment result | 52 | 35 17 |
157 | 133 | 24 | |
| Organic change | 122 | Other | –77 | –49 | –27 | –260 | –183 | –77 |
| 2019 | 3,500 | Net result | 43 | 5 38 |
148 | 45 | 103 | |
| Property-casualty Germany | (€m) | Q4 2019 | Return1 | 2019 | Return1 | 2018 | Return1 | |
| Regular income | 40 | 2.1% | 159 | 2.1% | 148 | 2.1% | ||
| Write-ups/write-downs | –5 | –0.2% | –27 | –0.4% | –40 | –0.6% | ||
| Disposal gains/losses | 27 | 1.4% | 100 | 1.3% | 30 | 0.4% | ||
| Derivatives2 | –6 | –0.3% | –51 | –0.7% | 13 | 0.2% | ||
| Other income/expenses | –4 | –0.2% | –23 | –0.3% | –19 | –0.3% | ||
| Investment result | 52 | 2.8% | 157 | 2.1% | 133 | 1.9% | ||
| Average market value | 7,617 | 7,504 | 7,085 |
1 Return on quarterly weighted investments (market values) in % p.a. 2 Result from derivatives without regular income and other income/expenses. 28 February 2020
ERGO Property-casualty Germany (2)
ERGO International (1)
| Gross premiums written | €m | Major result drivers | €m | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5,057 | Q4 2019 | Q4 2018 | p | 2019 | 2018 | p | ||
| Foreign exchange | –28 | Technical result | –20 | 7 | –26 | 171 | 228 | –57 | |
| Non-technical result | 77 | 15 | 62 | 131 | 14 | 116 | |||
| Divestments/investments | –142 | thereof investment result | 132 | 107 | 25 | 430 | 348 | 82 | |
| Organic change | 25 | Other | –44 | –40 | –4 | –197 | –139 | –58 | |
| 2019 | 4,912 | Net result | 13 | –18 | 31 | 105 | 103 | 2 | |
| International (€m) |
Q4 2019 | Return1 | 2019 | Return1 | 2018 | Return1 | |||
| Regular income | 96 | 2.0% | 368 | 2.0% | 406 | 2.3% | |||
| Write-ups/write-downs | 8 | 0.2% | 40 | 0.2% | –55 | –0.3% | |||
| Disposal gains/losses | 59 | 1.3% | 112 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.0% | |||
| Derivatives2 | –24 | –0.5% | –65 | –0.4% | 22 | 0.1% | |||
| Other income/expenses | –6 | –0.1% | –25 | –0.1% | –27 | –0.2% | |||
| Investment result | 132 | 2.8% | 430 | 2.4% | 348 | 2.0% | |||
| Average market value | 18,763 | 18,186 | 17,361 |
1 Return on quarterly weighted investments (market values) in % p.a. 2 Result from derivatives without regular income and other income/expenses. 28 February 2020
ERGO International (2)
Overweight in North America and traditional mortality risk
Reinsurance Life and Health
| Gross premiums written | €m | Major result drivers | €m | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 10,849 | Q4 2019 | Q4 2018 | p | 2019 | 2018 | p | ||
| Foreign exchange | 309 | Technical result | 30 | 141 | –111 | 329 | 503 | –175 | |
| Non-technical result | 128 | 40 | 87 | 520 | 427 | 94 | |||
| Divestments/investments | 0 | thereof investment result | 225 | 261 | –36 | 1,080 | 988 | 92 | |
| Organic change | 558 | Other | –69 | –56 | –13 | –144 | –201 | 58 | |
| 2019 | 11,716 | Net result | 89 | 126 | –37 | 706 | 729 | –23 | |
| Reinsurance Life and Health (€m) | Q4 2019 | Return1 | 2019 | Return1 | 2018 | Return1 | |||
| Regular income | 191 | 2.6% | 791 | 2.8% | 806 | 3.1% | |||
| Write-ups/write-downs | 14 | 0.2% | 14 | 0.0% | –108 | –0.4% | |||
| Disposal gains/losses | 48 | 0.7% | 322 | 1.1% | 358 | 1.4% | |||
| Derivatives2 | –13 | –0.2% | –9 | 0.0% | –2 | 0.0% | |||
| Other income/expenses | –15 | –0.2% | –38 | –0.1% | –65 | –0.3% | |||
| Investment result | 225 | 3.1% | 1,080 | 3.8% | 988 | 3.8% | |||
| Average market value | 29,170 | 28,205 | 25,812 |
1 Return on quarterly weighted investments (market values) in % p.a. 2 Result from derivatives without regular income and other income/expenses. 28 February 2020
Result below guidance – Growth of fee income partly balances lower than expected technical result
Financially Motivated Reinsurance – Strong demand prevails
Portfolio development
- New business dominated by US and Asia
-
2018's drop in top line due to scheduled termination and restructuring of two particularly premium-intensive transactions
-
Demand expected to remain high
- Transaction types tailored to client needs
- Number and size of transactions will vary on an annual basis
Asia – Success through tailor-made market and client strategies
Portfolio development
- Strong organisational set-up throughout the region
- Sustained growth path
- Growing fee income
-
New business contribution volatile on amount of FinMoRe written in a particular year
-
Growth path in the region prevails
- High demand for solvency relief and financing solutions
- Competition expected to increase
- Closely watch product trends, particularly in critical illness
Longevity – Hold on to prudent underwriting approach
Gross premiums written Liability p.a. Strategic proposition 381 484 417 614 685 4 4 3 6 6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % of total
- Portfolio comprises longevity transactions in the UK
- Market entry in 2011 after in-depth research
- Prudent approach in pricing and valuation
Portfolio development
- Book carefully developed in line with risk appetite
- Claims emerge better than expected in pricing
- Positive contribution to IFRS and SII earnings
-
2019: one large transaction executed late in the year
-
No change to prudent underwriting approach
- Carefully consider expansion beyond UK and extension of product offering
Financial Markets1 – Comprehensive market risk solutions for the financial services industry
IFRS earnings contribution2 €m Strategic proposition
Portfolio development
- Initial focus on Europe and Asia (mainly Japan)
- Expansion across Europe, Asia, and North America
- Market exploration in Latin America and Australia
-
Portfolio has gained stand-alone significance
-
Offer comprehensive solutions to manage market risks and returns globally
- Innovate new business, optimise inforce business, and boost asset returns of insurers, pension providers and other institutional and private investors
- Capitalise on growth and consolidation opportunities in the global savings, retirement and investment industry
- Leverage capital market, structuring, accounting, legal, and regulatory expertise on the basis of technical and quantitative capabilities
-
Transfer and transform financial risks to markets via state-of-the-art platform
-
Intensify coverage of existing markets and expand into further markets
- Support growth by further scaling up the organisation
- Broaden product, service and regulatory scope
- Grow contribution to IFRS earnings and new business contribution
Reinsurance Property-casualty
| Gross premiums written |
€m | Major result drivers |
€m | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20,437 | Q4 2019 | Q4 2018 | p | 2019 | 2018 | p | ||
| Foreign exchange | 638 | Technical result | –344 | 56 | –401 | 1,000 | 1,250 | –249 | |
| Non-technical result | 315 | –122 | 436 | 763 | 284 | 479 | |||
| Divestments/investments | –183 | thereof investment result | 623 | 249 | 374 | 2,152 | 1,555 | 597 | |
| Organic change | 1,200 | Other | 57 | 124 | –67 | –202 | –399 | 197 | |
| 2019 | 22,091 | Net result | 27 | 59 | –32 | 1,562 | 1,135 | 427 | |
| Reinsurance Property-casualty | (€m) | Q4 2019 | Return1 | 2019 | Return1 | 2018 | Return1 | ||
| Regular income | 442 | 2.7% | 1,862 | 2.9% | 1,736 | 2.9% | |||
| Write-ups/write-downs | 28 | 0.2% | –87 | –0.1% | –463 | –0.8% | |||
| Disposal gains/losses | 363 | 2.2% | 807 | 1.3% | 540 | 0.9% | |||
| Derivatives2 | –104 | –0.6% | –94 | –0.1% | –12 | 0.0% | |||
| Other income/expenses | –106 | –0.6% | –336 | –0.5% | –246 | –0.4% | |||
| Investment result | 623 | 3.8% | 2,152 | 3.4% | 1,555 | 2.6% | |||
| Average market value | 65,725 | 63,786 | 60,684 |
1 Return on quarterly weighted investments (market values) in % p.a. 2 Result from derivatives without regular income and other income/expenses.
Consistently managing portfolio quality – Profitability comfortably exceeds cost of capital
Traditional P-C portfolio – Outlook 20201
- Quite stable portfolio composition with slight move to specialty lines
- Varying pricing trends depending on distinct geographies and lines of business
- Favourable development in Marine and Aviation
- Upcoming renewals to determine situation on cat XL markets
- Overall economic profitability of portfolio slightly increased
- Interest rate environment puts pressure on economic profitability for long-tail lines
US casualty – Closely monitoring adverse trends, reserving risks manageable
Traditional US casualty
83
%
US casualty provisions for outstanding claims
%
UY 2003-2014 33 (79% IBNR) 19 (62% IBNR)
UY 2015+ 48 (88% IBNR)
Immediate response to early signs of adverse development
Continuous and strong reaction to adverse US casualty loss trends over the last years to maintain prudence level for our reserve position
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Decisive action on our US primary book by changing strategy, but also by strength ening reserves in motor and general liability lines |
Action on individual portfolios in our reinsurance liability book where we saw elevated loss reporting from our cedants |
Further reserve strengthening in reinsurance motor liability, general liability and financial lines to respond to ongoing loss trends |
US casualty market highly differentiated – Still allows us to seize opportunities while active risk management remains key
Market observations
- Social inflation reflects the changing values of society and particularly materialises as a frequency of severity
- Mainly exposed are bodily-injury related classes of business, e.g. commercial auto, general and product liability and healthcare/medical malpractice
- Limit reductions on original policies
- Accelerating rate increases on original policies, primarily in the non-admitted market, e.g. E&S and D&O
- Further firming in primary admitted market to be expected after adjusted rate filings
- Accelerated rate increases expected throughout 2020 renewals, especially for high excess Bermuda and financial lines renewals
Munich Re approach
- Long-term track record in managing and early responding to risk of change, e.g. social inflation
- Active portfolio management
- Selective opportunities in some proportional business lines benefitting from increasing original rates, credible alignment of interest and high transparency
- Expansion of personal lines business from 7% to 18%1
- Reduction of portfolio parts with imbalanced premium/risk reward, e.g. US commercial liability XL business from 10% to 6%1
- Proactive adjustment of pricing parameters to reflect dynamic market/ claims environment and avoid anti-selection
- Reduction of ceding commissions
- Risk management strict limit management, accumulation control and feedback loops between underwriting, claims and reserving
Ongoing qualitative improvement of our proportional US commercial liability portfolio
GWP growth 20191,2
Combined ratio 20191
Risk Solutions: AMIG, F&C and MRS with particularly good results – Aerospace hit by large loss events
Combined ratio 20191
- Transformation investments bearing fruits with higher growth than expected
- One-offs IT costs and business run off partly impact the result
Hartford Steam Boiler
- Strong growth of strategic products and further growth in core business
-
Investing in new MR wide IoT activities
-
Investing in newly created unit and building up E&S business
- Solid property result
- Turnaround of casualty business executed
| 92% | +13% | |
|---|---|---|
GWP growth 20191,2
Munich Re Syndicate (MRS) ▪ Better market conditions and diversification in new specialty lines supporting positive growth ▪ Investing in digitalisation and process automation F&C ▪ Good and profitable market position after a period affected by severe outlier events ▪ Premiums with strong growth above expectations, particularly driven by property 96% +31% American Modern (AMIG) 93% +35% Aerospace ▪ Unusual accumulation of large loss events for Space and Aviation business ▪ Growing premium due to better market conditions and an improving competitive landscape 88% +17% Munich Re Specialty Insurance 166% +20% 102% +7%
1 Economic view – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. 2 Compared to previous year. Gross premiums written.
Reinsurance Property-casualty – Combined ratio
| Major losses | Nat cat | Man-made | Reserve releases1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 15.2 | 10.0 | 5.2 | –5.6 |
| Q4 2019 | 27.4 | 21.1 | 6.3 | –7.1 |
| Ø Annual expectation |
~12.0 | ~8.0 | ~4.0 | ~–4.0 |
Additional information: Reinsurance Property-casualty – Risk trading
Retrocession – Stable programme structure despite a tightened market
Retrocession – Maximum in-force protection per nat cat scenario1
- Protection against peak risks via multiple instruments mainly traditional retrocession (CXL) and sidecars
- Well-balanced buying strategy reflecting
- strong Munich Re capital base and risk-bearing capacity,
- expected IFRS result stabilisation,
- market terms
€m Munich Re key channels
Traditional retrocession
- Munich Re has one of the largest retrocession programmes globally
- Capacity constraints in the broader market, some locked-in capital
- Reliable Munich Re approach placements well received
Sidecar program2
- One of the largest sidecar programmes in the market (US\$ 685m); QS cessions of certain lines of business
- Placed with a broad range of investors and targeting long-term partnerships with large institutional accounts
- Two products: (1) placed with broad investor group, (2) bilateral (single counterparty)
- 1 Including indemnity retrocession, ILW/derivatives, risk swaps, cat bonds and the sidecars including Eden Re. Selection of main scenarios. 2 Munich Re structured and arranged transactions.
Munich Re's maximum in-force nat cat protection
Nat cat protection before reinstatement premiums, as at January 2020
€m
January renewals with satisfactory outcome – Overall portfolio profitability increased
Munich Re portfolio – Price and volume change in major business lines
| Total | Property | Casualty | Specialty lines | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business line | Prop. | XL | Prop. | XL | Marine | Credit | Aviation | |
| Premium split1 | €10.7bn | 22% | 10% | 46% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 3% |
| Price change |
8.2% | |||||||
| 1.2% ~ |
0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 0.2% | ||
| Volume change |
4.4% | 11.5% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 31.0% | 14.5% | 24.5% | |
| –5.8% |
Price change
- Overall price increases
- Proportional casualty and property business slightly increased, property XL mixed picture with ongoing rate pressure on loss free accounts and rate increases in loss-affected accounts.
- Price increases in aviation and marine supported by primary market rate increases
January renewals 2020 – Split by line of business and region
Split by line of business
% Split by region
%
January renewals – Almost half of total P-C book up for renewal
Total property-casualty book1 % Remaining business 30 July renewals 16 January renewals 46 April renewals 8 TOTAL €22bn
Cautiously optimistic outlook for upcoming renewals
Total P-C book1 Treaty business April July Rest of Asia/ Pacific/Africa Europe Worldwide NA2 LA3 Australia/ New Zealand January2 46 Worldwide LA3 Europe TOTAL €3.5bn NA2 Claims experience in the individual market segments will play a major role Focus: USA, LA, Australia Nat cat share: 20% Focus: USA, Europe Nat cat share: 10% Positive price change of ~1.2% TOTAL €10.2bn Rest of Asia/ Pacific/Africa Europe NA2 LA3 Worldwide Japan Focus: Japan Nat cat share: 26% TOTAL €1.8bn TOTAL €22bn Remaining 30 April 8 July 16 Nat cat share: 14% ~50% of total P-C book renewed in January Asia/Pacific/ Africa January
Renewal results – Nominal price change 2011–2020
Increased top line – Well-balanced diversified portfolio
- Stable portfolio composition
- Well-balanced traditional portfolio
- Slight move towards specialty
▪ Strong proportion of US business, spread across all lines of business
Portfolio management and high share of proportional business support earnings resilience
9 (8)
%
XL
Traditional1
- Share increases
- Nat cat XL
- Accordingly, ongoing slight shift towards non-proportional business
- Agro business
Share decreases
- Proportional property
- Casualty
Strong long-term growth in cyber (re)insurance expected – Munich Re with leading-edge expertise and market presence
GWP global cyber insurance market1 US\$ bn
GWP Munich Re cyber portfolio US\$ m 191 263 354 473 604 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Reinsurance Primary insurance
Cyber insurance market with strong expected growth
- North America will remain the biggest region. Europe and Asia to expand their share in the world market significantly
- Regulatory changes in more than 100 countries and further increased awareness drives demand for cyber solutions
- Growth of digital business models. IoT developments will further increase the demand for cyber policies
Serving all client segments via RI and PI carriers
- Dedicated cyber teams ensure client proximity through a global set up supported by a central cyber unit
- Steady growth in the US, accelerated growth in Europe and Asia
- HSB as a well established player in the US conforming strong growth and detecting new distribution channels
- Sustainable growth of corporate single risks through centralised and strengthened expertise (MR F&C)
Financial calendar
| 18 March |
Annual report (Group), Annual report (Company) |
|---|---|
| 29 April |
Annual General Meeting 2020 |
| 7 May |
Quarterly statement as at 31 March 2020 |
| 6 August |
Half-year financial report as at 30 June 2020 |
| 5 November |
Quarterly statement as at 30 September 2020 |
| 8 December |
Investor Day, Munich |
For information, please contact
Investor Relations Team
Christian Becker-Hussong
Head of Investor & Rating Agency Relations Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3910 E-mail: [email protected]
Ralf Kleinschroth
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-4559 E-mail: [email protected]
Maximiliane Hörl (ERGO)
Tel.: +49 (211) 477-7483 E-mail: [email protected]
Thorsten Dzuba
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-8030 E-mail: [email protected]
Christine Franziszi
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3875 E-mail: [email protected]
Andreas Silberhorn (Rating agencies)
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3366 E-mail: [email protected]
Ingrid Grunwald (ESG)
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3517 E-mail: [email protected]
Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft | Investor & Rating Agency Relations | Königinstraße 107 | 80802 München, Germany Fax: +49 (89) 3891-9888 | E-mail: [email protected] | Internet: www.munichre.com
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on current assumptions and forecasts of the management of Munich Re. Known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the forward-looking statements given here and the actual development, in particular the results, financial situation and performance of our Company. The Company assumes no liability to update these forward-looking statements or to make them conform to future events or developments.