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Masterflex SE — Investor Presentation 2015
May 15, 2015
276_rns_2015-05-15_a87be959-ffa4-4524-b71f-f1c1ec7072dd.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Masterflex SE May 13, 2015 P. 1 WGZ BANK RESEARCH
Update
Masterflex SE 3) 4) May 13, 2015
| Recommendation: | Buy | Company data | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| before: | - | as of - |
Sector | Industry |
| Target price (EUR) | 9.00 | Market segment | Prime Standard | |
| Share price (Xetra) (EUR) | 7.02 | ISIN | DE0005492938 | |
| 05/12/15 5:36 PM |
Reuters | MZXG.DE | ||
| Share price potential | 28% | Bloomberg | MZX | |
Profitability enhancement expected during the year
- Q Sales in Q1 2015 increased to EUR16.8m (16.0; our forecast: 16.8). It must be noted that last year´s Q1 was overproportionally strong. The growth was generated in all regions except Russia (as in Q4 limited demand from some Russian clients due to negative currency effects). Q1 EBIT of EUR1.7m (2.1; our forecast: 1.8) was declining. This is due to personnel expenditures having risen overproportionally to sales as a result of the staff expansion owed to production as well as the usual salary adjustments, but also due to legal changes (minimum wage in Germany and health care reform in the US). We expect a clear decrease of the personnel expenditure rate (to sales; Q1 2015: 38.4% (35.9%)) during the year.
- Q We confirm our 2015 forecasts for sales of EUR67.1m and EBIT of EUR7.0m (overproportional sales increase comparing to the increased personnel expenditures).
- Q We further recommend to Buy (growth perspectives outside Europe, new products (innovation, takeovers), sustainable solid FCF as well as possible dividend after 2016 (not included into our estimate yet)) with an unchanged price target of EUR9.00.
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross revenue | 55.0 | 57.9 | 62.5 | 67.1 | 72.6 | 78.6 |
| Growth in revenue | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% |
| EBIT | 7.6 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| EBIT margin | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% |
| Net income | 3.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% |
| EPS | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| DPS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net financial debt / EBITDA |
2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Net gearing | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Free cash flow (FCF) | 0.9 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| FCF per share | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| EV/sales | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.4 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 8.2 |
| EV/FCF | 57.6 | 16.0 | 26.2 | 22.9 | 19.3 | 17.1 |
| P/E | 13.1 | 19.1 | 20.4 | 16.8 | 14.3 | 12.0 |
| P/B | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Figures in EURm except EPS, DPS and FCF per share (EUR); source: Masterflex SE, own estimates Authors: A. Vashkevich, S. Röhle (analysts)
| Share data | ||
|---|---|---|
| Shares (m) | 8.866 | |
| Freefloat | 55.7% | |
| Market cap. (EURm) | 62.2 | |
| ∅ Trading volume (shares) | 5,140 | |
| 52W High 01/20/2014 |
EUR7.50 | |
| 52W Low 02/07/2014 |
EUR6.50 | |
| Events | ||
| General meeting | 06/16/15 | |
| Q2 results | 08/10/15 | |
| Performance | ||
| absolute | relative to | |
| DAX | ||
| 1M | 0.3% | 7.9% |
| 3M | -4.0% | -8.2% |
| 6M | 4.8% | -15.5% |
| 12M | 0.5% | -14.5% |
Index weighting
No index membership
Source: Bloomberg
Contact
Research Department
Head: Dr. Frank Wohlgemuth, CIIA/CEFA
Equity Sales Team +49 (0) 211 778-3370
Thomas Aldenrath / [email protected] Jörg Eberhardt / [email protected] Oliver Garbe / [email protected] Dorothee Hönes / [email protected] Ansgar Krekeler / [email protected] Thomas Reher / [email protected] Udo Zartner / [email protected]
1)2)3)4)6) Please notice the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests as well as the disclaimer at the end of this document Please notice the indications concerning the preparation of this document, the indications concerning potential conflicts of interest, the compulsory information required by paragraph 34b WpHG (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz - Securities Trade Act) and the liability declaration at the end of this document. This financial analysis in the meaning of paragraph 34b WpHG shall only be distributed to professional clients or eligible counterparties according to § 31a WpHG.
- Q Sales rose by 4.8% in Q1 2015. Despite the positive top line development the EBIT margin fell to 10.0% (13.0%), remained, however, in the doubledigit area. This is, on the one hand, due to the staff expansion as a result of growth (average number of employees: +22 y/y; +23 q/q) as well as the usual salary adjustments at the turn of the year. On the other hand, higher personnel expenditures were caused by the minimum wage legislation having taken effect in Germany since 2015 (higher personnel expenditures due to the wage/benefits gap rule at some Masterflex sites) and the health care reform in the US ("Obama Care").
- Q We welcome the decline in the costs of material ratio (to sales) to 31.4% (32,9%) in Q1 2015, which is owed to stable raw material costs as well as the product mix, but also the internal optimisation of the production process.
- Q In 2015 we expect a slightly rising EBIT margin of 10.4% (2014: 10.1%; higher personnel expenditures are overcompensated by sales dynamics). The sales growth in the current year should be driven by innovations, among others (several new products at an advanced development stage at the moment). The historic long-year EBIT margin of 13-14% is targeted in the mid-term.
Decline of EBIT margin in Q1 2015
Declining material cost rate in Q1 2015
We expect an increase of the 2015 EBIT margin to 10.4% (2014: 10.1%)
Valuation
Valuation Conclusion
We still value the Masterflex share solely based on our DCF model. This produces a fair value of EUR80.7m or EUR9.10 per share. Our price target remains unchanged at EUR9.00.
Price target remains unchanged at EUR9.00
| Masterflex SE | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF model | ||||||||||
| in EURm | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
| Sales | 67.1 | 72.6 | 78.6 | 84.4 | 90.2 | 95.8 | 101.2 | 106.4 | 111.2 | 116.2 |
| Growth yoy | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| EBIT margin | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| EBIT | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 14.4 | 15.1 |
| - Income taxes | -2.1 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| + Amortisation and depreciation | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| +/- Other non cash items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gross operating cash flow | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 14.6 |
| -/+ Change in net working capital | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -2.3 |
| - Investments in fixed assets | -3.0 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -3.6 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -4.1 |
| Free cash flow | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| Present values | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Total present values | 38.5 | |||||||||
| Terminal value | 59.5 | in % of total value: | 61% | |||||||
| Value of operating business | 98.0 | |||||||||
| + Cash and cash equivalents | 4.1 | Model parameters: | ||||||||
| - Financial debt | -21.0 | Target capital structure: | Equity: | 70% | Financial debt: | 30% | ||||
| - Pension provision | 0.0 | |||||||||
| - Minority interests | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Fair market value of equity | 80.7 | Risk-free Rate | 3.0% | Beta: | 1.5 | Risk prem. debt: | 2.7% | |||
| Risk premium | 5.0% | Tax shield: | 30.0% | |||||||
| Number of shares outstanding (m) | 8.866 | Cost of equity | 10.4% | Cost of debt: | 4.0% | |||||
| Fair value per share (EUR) | 9.10 | Growth FCF (TV): | 2.0% | WACC: | 8.4% | Date | 05/13/15 |
Source: own estimates
| Sensitivity analysis (EUR) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate (WACC) | ||||||||||
| 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | |||||||
| 1.0% | 9.87 | 8.97 | 8.20 | 7.52 | ||||||
| FCF (TV) Growth |
1.5% | 10.49 | 9.48 | 8.62 | 7.87 | |||||
| 2.0% | 11.21 | 10.07 | 9.10 | 8.27 | ||||||
| 2.5% | 12.09 | 10.76 | 9.66 | 8.74 | ||||||
| Source: own estimates |
Appendix
Masterflex SE
Consolidated income statement
| EURm | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 55.0 | 57.9 | 62.5 | 67.1 | 72.6 | 78.6 |
| Changes in inventory of finished goods and work in progress | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Work performed by the enterprise and capitalised | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other operating income | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Gross revenue | 57.7 | 58.7 | 63.9 | 67.7 | 73.2 | 79.3 |
| Cost of materials | -17.8 | -18.1 | -20.4 | -21.7 | -23.4 | -25.4 |
| Staff costs | -20.1 | -21.8 | -23.3 | -24.2 | -26.1 | -28.1 |
| Depreciation | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -3.1 |
| Other expenses | -9.6 | -10.0 | -11.1 | -11.9 | -12.6 | -13.4 |
| EBIT | 7.6 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| Other interest and similar results | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Interest and similar expenses | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Net profit/loss from investments carried at equity | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other financial results | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net financial income/expense | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Extraordinary result | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBT | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 8.2 |
| Income tax expense | -1.9 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.4 | -2.7 |
| Net income | 3.9 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.4 |
| Extraordinary result (after taxes) | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minority interests | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Net income after minority interests | 3.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| Number of shares (m) | 8.87 | 8.87 | 8.87 | 8.87 | 8.87 | 8.87 |
| Earnings per share (basic, EUR) | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.59 |
Source: Masterflex SE; own estimates
Masterflex SE
Consolidated income statement (as percentage of sales)
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Changes in inventory of finished goods and work in progress | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Work performed by the enterprise and capitalised | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Other operating income | 3.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Gross revenue | 104.9% | 101.4% | 102.4% | 100.9% | 100.8% | 100.8% |
| Cost of materials | -32.4% | -31.3% | -32.6% | -32.3% | -32.3% | -32.3% |
| Staff costs | -36.5% | -37.7% | -37.2% | -36.1% | -36.0% | -35.8% |
| Depreciation | -4.8% | -4.6% | -4.6% | -4.3% | -4.1% | -3.9% |
| Other expenses | -17.5% | -17.3% | -17.8% | -17.8% | -17.4% | -17.1% |
| EBIT | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% |
| Other interest and similar results | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Interest and similar expenses | -2.9% | -2.6% | -1.8% | -1.7% | -1.7% | -1.5% |
| Net profit/loss from investments carried at equity | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Other financial results | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Net financial income/expense | -2.8% | -2.7% | -1.8% | -1.6% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| Extraordinary result | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBT | 10.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% |
| Income tax expense | -3.4% | -2.9% | -3.1% | -3.1% | -3.2% | -3.5% |
| Net income | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% |
| Extraordinary result (after taxes) | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Minority interests | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| Net income after minority interests | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% |
Source: Masterflex SE; own estimates
1)2)3)4)6) Please notice the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests as well as the disclaimer at the end of this document
Consolidated balance sheet
| EURm | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Other intangible assets | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 21.2 | 21.8 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.8 | 23.1 |
| Non-current financial assets | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Other non-current receivables and assets | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Deferred taxes | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Non-current assets | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.6 | 29.8 | 30.0 | 30.3 |
| Inventories | 11.1 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 14.7 |
| Trade receivables | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 7.0 |
| Other current assets | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 14.1 |
| Current assets | 20.6 | 21.8 | 22.4 | 28.3 | 32.6 | 36.9 |
| Assets held for sale | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total assets | 50.8 | 51.7 | 52.0 | 58.2 | 62.6 | 67.2 |
| Subscribed capital | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Capital reserve | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 |
| Other comprehensive income | -15.3 | -12.7 | -9.7 | -9.7 | -9.7 | -9.7 |
| Other components of equity | -1.4 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| Treasury shares | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Consolidated profit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 13.3 |
| Dividend payment | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shareholder's equity | 18.3 | 20.5 | 23.4 | 27.2 | 31.5 | 36.7 |
| Minority interests | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Total equity | 18.9 | 21.1 | 23.8 | 27.6 | 31.9 | 37.1 |
| Other non-current provisions | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Non-current financial liabilities | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 16.8 | 16.7 | 16.2 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Non-current liabilities and provisions | 19.6 | 20.4 | 17.2 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 18.5 |
| Current provisions | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Current financial liabilities | 6.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Trade payables | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Other current liabilities | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Current liabilities | 11.9 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.4 |
| Liabilities directly connected with assets held for sale | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 50.8 | 51.7 | 52.0 | 58.2 | 62.6 | 67.2 |
Consolidated balance sheet (as percentage of total assets)
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% |
| Other intangible assets | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Property, plant and equipment | 41.8% | 42.1% | 43.6% | 38.9% | 36.5% | 34.4% |
| Non-current financial assets | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Other non-current receivables and assets | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Deferred taxes | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Non-current assets | 59.4% | 57.9% | 57.0% | 51.3% | 48.0% | 45.1% |
| Inventories | 21.9% | 20.7% | 22.5% | 21.7% | 21.8% | 21.9% |
| Trade receivables | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% |
| Other current assets | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 5.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 15.2% | 18.3% | 21.0% |
| Current assets | 40.6% | 42.1% | 43.0% | 48.7% | 52.0% | 54.9% |
| Assets held for sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total assets | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Subscribed capital | 17.2% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| Capital reserve Other comprehensive income |
51.7% -30.2% |
50.8% -24.6% |
50.5% -18.6% |
45.1% -16.6% |
42.0% -15.5% |
39.0% -14.4% |
| Other components of equity | -2.7% | -3.5% | -3.6% | -3.2% | -3.0% | -2.8% |
| Treasury shares | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Consolidated profit | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 12.9% | 19.7% |
| Dividend payment | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shareholder's equity | 36.1% | 39.6% | 45.1% | 46.7% | 50.4% | 54.6% |
| Minority interests | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Total equity | 37.1% | 40.7% | 45.9% | 47.4% | 51.0% | 55.2% |
| Other non-current provisions | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Non-current financial liabilities | 33.7% | 35.1% | 29.0% | 28.8% | 26.6% | 24.0% |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Other non-current liabilities | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Non-current liabilities and provisions | 38.6% | 39.5% | 33.0% | 32.5% | 30.1% | 27.5% |
| Current provisions | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| Current financial liabilities | 12.0% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| Trade payables | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Other current liabilities | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Current liabilities | 23.4% | 19.3% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 18.6% | 17.0% |
| Liabilities directly connected with assets held for sale | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Total equity and liabilities | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Consolidated cash flow statement
| EURm | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBIT | 7.0 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| Depreciation | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Paid/received income tax | -1.8 | -0.9 | -1.3 | -2.1 | -2.4 | -2.7 |
| Other non-cash expenses/income | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Changes in pension provisions and other non-current liabilities | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gross cash flow | 6.4 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 9.5 |
| Change in inventories, trade receivables and other assets | -1.8 | 1.1 | -0.4 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.7 |
| Change in trade payables and other liabilities | -1.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Other non-cash items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net cash from operating activities | 3.6 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 7.9 |
| Payments to acquire property, plant and equipment | -2.1 | -3.4 | -3.6 | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.4 |
| Payments to acquire financial assets | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Payments to acquire intangible assets | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Payments made for investments in non-current assets | -2.6 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -3.3 | -3.5 |
| Payments received from the disposal of consolidated subsidiaries | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Proceeds from the disposal of non-current assets | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Proceeds/payments relating to financial assets | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Payments received from the sale of consolidated subsidiaries | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other non-current assets | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net cash from/used in investing activities | -2.5 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -3.3 | -3.5 |
| Increase/decrease from financial liabilities | -0.9 | -0.5 | -2.3 | 2.2 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Payments to owners and minority interests | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividend payout | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Change in deferred taxes | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Proceeds/payments from capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Interest payments/interest received | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Proceeds/payments of financial assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net cash from/used in financing activities | -2.7 | -2.2 | -3.6 | 0.9 | -1.4 | -1.7 |
| Changes in cash and cash equivalents | -1.6 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Exchange rates/consolidation/others | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period | 4.6 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 11.5 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 14.1 |
| Payments/debt positions held for sale | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Funds balance | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 14.1 |
| Key figures | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | |
| Growth rates | ||||||
| Gross revenue growth | ||||||
| EBITDA growth | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% |
| EBIT growth | 2.1% | -13.8% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 12.5% |
| EBT growth | 0.8% -6.0% |
-19.1% -21.8% |
3.3% 14.5% |
10.1% 13.1% |
14.6% 16.5% |
15.9% 19.1% |
| EPS growth | -6.4% | -24.7% | 17.2% | 22.0% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| Margins | ||||||
| EBITDA margin | 18.5% | 15.1% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| EBIT margin | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% |
| EBT margin | 10.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% |
| Yield analysis | ||||||
| ROI | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% |
| ROCE | 15.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 14.8% |
| ROE | 19.7% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 15.1% |
| ROIC | 15.0% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 14.9% |
| Balance sheet analysis | ||||||
| Equity ratio | 37.1% | 40.7% | 45.9% | 47.4% | 51.0% | 55.2% |
| Equity/Non-current assets ratio | 62.5% | 70.4% | 80.5% | 92.4% | 106.3% | 122.5% |
| Equity + non-current debt/Non-current assets ratio | 127.5% | 138.7% | 138.5% | 155.6% | 169.1% | 183.5% |
| Asset intensity | 59.4% | 57.8% | 57.0% | 51.3% | 48.0% | 45.1% |
| Inventory turnover | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Receivables turnover | 10.6 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| Days of sales outstanding | 34.5 | 33.4 | 30.5 | 30.6 | 30.9 | 31.1 |
| Working capital/Sales ratio | 18.7% | 20.9% | 19.8% | 20.1% | 20.2% | 20.5% |
| Days of payables outstanding | 32.8 | 33.2 | 27.6 | 26.3 | 26.8 | 27.2 |
| Debt ratios | ||||||
| Net financial debt (EURm) | 20.4 | 17.8 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 7.1 |
| Net financial debt/EBITDA | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Net gearing | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| EBITDA interest coverage | 6.3 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 10.6 |
| EBIT interest coverage | 4.7 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.9 |
| Cash flow analysis | ||||||
| Free cash flow (FCF) | 0.9 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| FCF/Sales | 1.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% |
| FCF/Net income | 26.1% | 154.6% | 98.8% | 91.5% | 89.4% | 81.2% |
| FCF per share (EUR) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| FCF yield | 2.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| Capex (EURm) | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Capex/Depreciation | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Capex/Sales | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Valuation multiples | ||||||
| EV/Sales | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.4 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 8.2 |
| EV/FCF | 57.6 | 16.0 | 26.2 | 22.9 | 19.3 | 17.1 |
| P/E | 13.1 | 19.1 | 20.4 | 16.8 | 14.3 | 12.0 |
| P/B | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| P/CF | 12.6 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| P/S | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Source: Masterflex SE; own estimates
1)2)3)4)6) Please notice the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests as well as the disclaimer at the end of this document
Sales performance (EURm)
⇒ Successful restructuring in 2008-2010
⇒ Internationalisation, innovation and possible company acquisitions as main drivers of top line development
Distribution of sales by region (2014)
Germany Rest of Europe Third Countries
⇒ ⇒ Europe (including Germany) is Masterflex´ main market for historical reasons From 2016 we expect an overproportional increase in sales outside Europe (especially America/Asia)
Sales development by region (EURm)
⇒ The sales in the German region contain indirect exports, among others
⇒ The operating profit 2013 was temporarily burdened by the upfront costs of internationalisation
⇒ From 2014 we expect a gradual increase in operating profit (end of the first phase of staff expansion; economies of scale)
Number of employees and sales/employees
Investments (EURm)
⇒ We expect an investment ratio of 4-5% of sales
⇒ 2011-2013: strong staff expansion as part of the first phase of internationalisation strategy
⇒ 2014: increase of sales per employee
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 Number of employees - left axis Sales per employee (EURk) - right axis
Disclaimer
Recommendations concerning particular shares
- Buy: According to our assessment, the stock should register an absolute profit of at least 15% within a 6-month period.
- Hold: According to our assessment, the stock should register an absolute profit between 0 and 15% within a 6-month period.
- Sell: According to our assessment, the stock should register an absolute loss within a 6-month period.
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