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Iren — Investor Presentation 2021
May 13, 2021
4243_iss_2021-05-13_36c103bf-2bc1-4b19-b451-4d482ce069c1.pdf
Investor Presentation
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IREN RESULTS
1Q 2021
13th May 2021
Positive results in a recovery scenario 1Q 2021
| KPIs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m€ | 1Q '20 | 1Q '21 | Δ | Δ% | ||
| Revenues | 1,077 | 1,140 | 63 | 5.8% | ||
| Ebitda | 274 | 313 | 39 | 14.0% | ||
| Ebit | 145 | 184 | 39 | 26.7% | ||
| Group net profit | 84 | 121 | 37 | 44.2% | ||
| Tech. Capex | 130 | 122 | -8 | -6.2% | ||
| NFP | 2,948* | 2,915 | -33 | -1.1% | ||
| * | FY 2020 data |
- Revenues +5.8%: favoured by higher energy prices and consolidated companies (I.Blu & Unieco) partially offset by Covid effects
- Ebitda +14.0%: positive results thanks to energy prices recovery, favorable climate, I.Blu and Unieco's contribution for 8m€, despite the recognition of Covid costs for 3m€
- Ebit +26.7%: lower provisions to bad debt (of which 5m€ related to Covid) offset by higher depreciations
- Group net profit +44.2%: mainly due to the optimization of the Unieco debt for 13m€
- Tech. Capex -6.2%: lower investments in this quarter. We expect a ramp up of capex in the coming months
- NFP -1.1%: the cash flow generation offset the NWC increase and the cash out for the acquisition of 20% of Futura and the related debt consolidation (25m€)
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW & REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
Ebitda rise through organic growth and synergies NETWORKS
-
- Increase led by higher allowed revenues (thanks to RAB growth) and synergies
-
- Investments are in line with last year
-
- Districtization activities continue by adding 28 more districts
-
- Mass replacement of gas and water smart meters continues in line with targets
- Decrease in water taken from the environment (-0,3 mcm vs. 1Q2020)
OUTLOOK
Despite the absence of the extraordinary elements, that positively characterized 2020, Ebitda '21 is expected to be in line with last year leveraging on the increase in allowed revenues
3
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW &
NFP FINANCIALS CLOSING REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
WASTE I.Blu and Unieco consolidation positive impact
-
- Higher margins on collection activities
-
- I.Blu and Unieco positive contribution for 8m€
-
- Higher PUN price supported the electricity sold for 3m€
-
- Increase in waste managed (+26%) compared to 1Q 2020 mainly for the impact of I.Blu and Unieco
- Lower contribution from REI landfill. The extension capacity will be available from 2022
- Sorted waste at 68.5% (vs 68.2% in 1Q 2020)
4
ENERGY Increase driven by the hydro sector
-
- Higher hydro volumes and prices benefitting also of higher GCs
-
- Increase in heat volumes distributed due to cold temperatures and networks expansion
-
- Higher rebuilding activities
-
- MSD in line with 1Q 2020 (16m€)
-
- Clean spark spread in line with last year
- Lower heat spark spread due to energy scenario dynamic
- Production increase from renewable and high efficiency sources at 81.3%
OUTLOOK
The hydro contribution, thanks to higher volumes, prices and GCs (extra contribution in 4Q), along with the energy efficiency business will drive the growth
5
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW &
NFP FINANCIALS CLOSING REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
MARKET Growth led by higher margins in the gas sector
-
- Lower costs of procurement and use of gas stored in 2020, led to margin growth (13m€)
-
- Margins' enhancement thanks to commercial policy
-
- Higher gas volumes thanks to favourable climatic conditions
-
- Iren Plus positive contribution
- Structural emerging costs (5m€) related to digitalization and commercial activities
- Lower electricity & gas volumes in the SME sector due to the pandemic
- Over 200 GWh of green energy sold to end clients
6
EBITDA BRIDGE (m€)
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW &
REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
FY '20 1Q '21 Electricity Gas
NFP FINANCIALS CLOSING
1Q '20 1Q '21
| 1Q '20 | 1Q '21 | Δ | Δ% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 274.4 | 312.9 | 38.5 | 14.0% | |
| Depreciations | -102.5 | -112.1 | consolidations | ||
| Provisions to bad debt | -22.0 | -14.6 | |||
| Other provisions and write-downs | -4.5 | -2.0 | |||
| EBIT | 145.4 | 184.2 | 38.8 | 26.7% | |
| Financial charges | -15.2 | -16.3 | |||
| Companies cons with e.m. | -0.2 | -0.2 | |||
| Other financial | -3.3 | 12.3 | gross debt |
||
| EBT | 126.7 | 180.0 | 53.3 | 42.1% | |
| Taxes | -37.3 | -52.2 | Tax-rate at 29.0% |
||
| Minorities | -5.7 | -7.1 | |||
| Group net profit | 83.7 | 120.7 | 37.0 | 44.2% |
- Higher depreciations due to capital intensive capex and the I.Blu and Unieco
- Lower provisions to bad debt related to Covid emergency (5m€ vs 12m€ last year)
- Optimization of Unieco debt for 13m€ Lower cost of debt offset by the increase of
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW &
Cash-flow and NFP 1Q 2021
- The cash flow generation offset the NWC increase, the high level of capex and the cash out for consolidation
- Net working capital affected by Covid and seasonality
- Consolidation concerned the 20% acquisition of Futura and the related debt
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW & REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
- 96% of gross debt at fixed interest rate and 4% of gross debt at variable interest rate
- Average long-term debt duration of about 5.9 years vs 5.6 years in 1Q 2020
- Reduction in the average cost of debt (1.8% vs. 2.2% in 1Q 2020)
- 59% of the Iren total debt is composed of green and
assimilated instruments (45% Green Bond, 14% EIB loans)
- On 10th December Iren issued its fourth Green Bond of 300m€
- Iren is the only Italian local multiutility to have issued 4 Green Bonds for a total size of 1.8b€
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW & REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
MAIN 1Q 2021 TAKEAWAYS
- Stronger contribution of the whole energy value chain supported by a recovery in energy scenario exploited by an effective attitude in procurement and hedging activities
- Positive contribution from the last consolidated companies in the Waste BU (I.Blu and Unieco)
- Negative Covid impact on Ebitda of -3m€
2021 NEXT MONTHS EXPECTATIONS
- FY 2021 growth mainly driven by Energy activities at larger extent and by Waste activities.
- Organic growth led by capex acceleration over coming months offsetting the absence of one-offs reported in 2020
- COVID impacts on:
- Ebitda not more than 10m€
- Net working capital around 40m€ (from 60m€ in FY2020)
- Credit losses up to 10m€
In light of the previous elements, we improve our guidance on FY 2021:
GUIDANCE ON FY 2021
- Ebitda: 970/980m€
- NFP/Ebitda: 3.3x / 3.4x
- Capex: 800m€
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW &
1Q 2021 Italian PNRR – EU Recovery fund
GENERAL AND SECTOR REFORMS
IREN will benefit from the general reforms, but above all, from the sector reforms through the short implementation timeframe and clear guidelines in terms of:
- simplification of plant and infrastructure authorization procedures
- homogenization and revision of criteria for awarding contracts and tenders (hydroelectric, gas networks)
- retail market full liberalization by 2023
- Strengthening and increasing coordination level among regulatory/competition Authorities
SECTORIAL INCENTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT
Financial resources activated (grants and loans) by the PNRR represent an important opportunity for the Group, in terms of:
- general economic growth they will generate (growth in demand for commodities and services)
- specific interventions in traditional sectors to boost the Group leadership position
- new opportunities in more innovative sectors already included in our strategy or in highly innovative sectors under evaluation like decarbonization technologies including hydrogen
Reforms represent a very important element for the implementation of Iren's Business Plan, strengthening its feasibility and the visibility of short and medium/long-term sector dynamics.
Acceleration of the development initiatives already present in the Business Plan and new opportunities of investments for the Group in the multicircle economy
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW & REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
Italian PNRR – EU Recovery fund 1Q 2021
Approximately 70b€ are allocated to the Green Revolution and Economic Transition mission, which is perfectly in line with Iren's strategy.
| PNRR GUIDELINES | REFORMS | OPPORTUNITIES |
|---|---|---|
| Current Iren presence Relevant Good Sufficient CIRCULAR ECONOMY |
Circular economy national strategy Waste management national program |
Plant development acceleration 2.1b€ Funds for innovative plants (waste-to- chemicals) Development of "critical" fractions treatment and recovery |
| INTEGRATED WATER SERVICE |
Regulatory simplification National Plan reform Reform for industrial consolidation |
3.5b€ Possible funding for new projects |
| DISTRICT HEATING |
Possible funding for new projects 0.2b€ Access to fund to be evaluated |
|
| BIOMETHANE DEVELOPMENT |
Administrative simplification Incentives for renewable gas use/production |
Possible funding for new plants 1.9b€ Development of integrated value chain of renewable gas |
| DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS |
Administrative simplification |
New investment opportunity mainly on Turin 4.1b€ Development line on resilience confirmed |
| ENERGY EFFICIENCY |
Administrative simplification Strengthening national fund |
Development opportunities in line with our 21.2b€ strategy (energy efficiency and public lights) Positioning strengthening on rebuilding |
| ENERGY COMMUNITIES |
Regulatory simplifications for small FER plants |
2.2b€ Energy communities' development strategy |
| E-MOBILITY | Regulatory simplifications PA responsibility rationalization |
Leverage experience from start-up projects 4.3b€ Development new business, strongly rooted on urban environment |
| 12 EBITDA NETWORKS |
WASTE ENERGY MARKET P&L |
CASHFLOW & CLOSING FINANCIALS ANNEXES NFP REMARKS |
ANNEXES
1Q 2021 Business units' results
| NETWORKS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m€ | 1Q '20 | 1Q '21 | Δ | Δ% | ||
| Revenues | 244 | 252 | 8 | 3% | ||
| Ebitda | 89 | 94 | 5 | 6% | ||
| Electricity | 19 | 19 | 0 | 2% | ||
| Gas | 20 | 22 | 2 | 7% | ||
| Water | 50 | 53 | 3 | 7% | ||
| Ebit | 40 | 48 | 8 | 18% | ||
| Gross Capex | 57 | 56 | -1 | -2% |
| ENERGY | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| m€ | 1Q '20 | 1Q '21 | Δ | Δ% |
| Revenues | 348 | 397 | 49 | 14% |
| Ebitda | 87 | 93 | 6 | 7% |
| Hydro&Renewables | 13 | 20 | 7 | 54% |
| Thermo/Coge, DH | 73 | 70 | -3 | -4% |
| Energy efficiency | 1 | 3 | 2 | n.s. |
| Ebit | 52 | 58 | 6 | 10% |
| Gross Capex | 38 | 20 | -18 | -47% |
| WASTE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m€ | 1Q '20 | 1Q '21 | Δ | Δ% | ||
| Revenues | 179 | 217 | 38 | 21% | ||
| Ebitda | 43 | 52 | 9 | 21% | ||
| Collection | 15 | 16 | 1 | 7% | ||
| Treatment & disposal | 28 | 36 | 8 | 29% | ||
| Ebit | 19 | 25 | 6 | 33% | ||
| Gross Capex | 16 | 22 | 6 | 37% |
| m€ | 1Q '20 | 1Q '21 | Δ | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 713 | 721 | 8 | 1% |
| Ebitda | 55 | 74 | 19 | 34% |
| Electricity | 12 | 13 | 1 | 8% |
| Gas&Heat | 43 | 61 | 18 | 42% |
| Ebit | 34 | 53 | 19 | 58% |
| Gross Capex | 11 | 16 | 5 | 44% |
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW & REMARKS EBITDA ENERGY ANNEXES
15
1Q 2021 Scenario
| 1Q '20 | 1Q '21 | Δ% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas Demand (bcm) |
23.9 | 25.2 | 5.8% |
| TTF €/000 scm |
103 | 195 | 89.6% |
| PSV €/000 scm |
120 | 198 | 65.3% |
| Energy Demand (Twh) |
77.0 | 78.6 | 2.2% |
| PUN (€/Mwh) |
39.6 | 59.2 | 49.6% |
| CO2 €/Ton |
22.8 | 37.4 | 64.0% |
| Green Cert. Hydro (€/Mwh) |
99.1 | 109.4 | 10.4% |
| TEE (€/TEE) | 265 | 260 | -1.9% |
| FY '20 | 1Q '21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Net fixed assets |
6,581 | 6,644 |
| Net Working Capital |
42 | 112 |
| Funds | -657 | -691 |
| Other assets and liabilities |
-254 | -255 |
| Net invested capital |
5,712 | 5,810 |
| Group Shareholders' equity |
2,764 | 2,895 |
| Net Financial Position |
2,948 | 2,915 |
| Total Funds |
5,712 | 5,810 |
NETWORKS WASTE MARKET P&L CASHFLOW &
1Q 2021 Balance sheet
The Manager in charge of drawing up the corporate accounting documents and the Chief Financial Officer of IREN S.p.A., Mr. Massimo Levrino, hereby declares, pursuant to paragraph 2 of article 154 bis of the Consolidated Finance Act (Legislative Decree No 58/1998), that the accounting information contained in this presentation is consistent with the accounting documents, records and books.
This document was prepared by IREN mainly for use during meetings with investors and financial analysts. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or subscribe shares and neither this entire document or any portion of it may constitute a basis or provide a reference for any contract or commitment.
Some of the information contained in this document may contain projected data or estimates that are based on current expectations and on opinions developed by IREN and are based on current plans, estimates, projections and projects. Consequently, it is recommended that they be viewed as indicative only.
Projected data and estimates entail risks and uncertainties. There are a number of factors that could produce significant differences between projected results and actual results. In addition, results may be affected by trends that are often difficult to anticipate, are generally beyond IREN's control and could produce results and developments that are substantially different from those explicitly or implicitly described or computed in the abovementioned projected data and estimates. The non-exhaustive list that follows being provided merely by way of example, these risks include: significant changes in the global business scenario, fluctuations in the prices of certain commodities, changes in the market's competitive conditions and changes in the general regulatory framework.
Notice is also given that projected data are valid only on the date they are produced. Except for those cases in which the applicable statutes require otherwise, IREN assumes no obligation to provide updates of the abovementioned estimates and projected data.