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Iren Earnings Release 2016

Mar 16, 2017

4243_10-k-afs_2017-03-16_5637a89a-0bb4-4b04-8380-7005a46afa37.pdf

Earnings Release

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2016 FY Results exceeding BP@2021 objectives, thanks to the Group's achievements…

Strengthening the role of IREN as leading consolidator in its reference areas thanks to the acquisition of several entities of which:

Integrally consolidated

  • TRM (WTE in Turin) = +40m€ (EBITDA)
  • ATENA (Multiutility in Vercelli Turin province) = +10m€ (EBITDA)
  • CONSOLIDATION - REI (Landfill for special waste in Turin province) = positive effect starting from 2Q 2017
  • SAP (acquisition of residual water concessions) = positive effect starting from 2017.

Consolidated with the equity method

  • GAIA (tender won in November 2016) = 45% of the share capital from February 2017
  • RECOS (September 2016) = 25.5% of the share capital

31m€ synergies deriving from:

  • Company rationalization 6 business companies generating 95% of Group's EBITDA.
  • Setting-up of IRETI – A single company managing all the networks-based business of the Group.
  • Process streamlining Thanks to approximately 40 performance-improvement iniatitives, destined to become approximately 100 in the next few years, and ICT systems integration.
  • Redundancy scheme – Full deployment of the early-retirement initiative for a total of approximately 12m€ of synergies on labor costs.

SYNERGIES

Pag. 2

…and supportive energy scenario positively affecting organic growth.

70 Million of organic growth deriving from an effective and active management of the opportunities offered by the scenario.

  • Improved spark-spread compared to 2015 thanks to a sharper decrease in gas price over the decrease in electricity prices.

GENERATION

  • Significant increase in PUN in the last quarter of the year thanks mainly to the French nuclear plants outage which led to a further improvement in spark-spreads.

ENERGY SUPPLY

  • Stunning margins stemming from a sound hedging policy and a sound re-pricing strategy exploiting the temporary widened gap between procurement costs and sale prices and a further improved commercial approach.
  • Positive regulation changes related to commercial costs recovery (PCV, RCV)

FY 2016: Positive results exceeding expectations.

Income statement Ebitda Bridge
m€
FY '15
FY '16 Δ Δ% 678 70 31 53 (14) 15 (19) 814
Revenues 3,094 3,283 189 6.1%
Ebitda 678 814 136 20.1%
Ebit 347 427 80 23.1% EBITDA
FY '15
Scenario
and
Synergies Consolid. Wacc
reduction
Time lag One-off
2015
EBITDA
FY '16
Net profit 118 174 56 47.2% Organic
Growth
  • Revenues +6.1%: growth in revenues linked mainly to higher commodities price reported in the last quarter of the year.
  • Ebitda +20.1%: positive performance driven by organic growth and favorable scenario (+70m€), along with the achievement of the expected synergies (31m€) and the change in the perimeter (+53m€ mainly for TRM and ATENA consolidation).
  • Ebit +23.1%: reflecting good operating results which more than offset higher D&A, linked to TRM and higher provisions relating to a number of non-recurring elements.
  • Net profit +47.2%: benefitting from the increase in EBIT and from an adjustment in participations which offset higher financial charges and taxes.

GENERATION AND DH – Higher volumes supported by improved scenario.

  • Active exploitation of the positive scenario drove the excellent 2016 performance, in spite of lower hydroelectric volumes.
  • Generation sector's significant growth stemmed mainly from higher spark-spreads and improved ancillary service margins thanks to the flexibility of the company generation fleet.
  • Hydroelectric sector's hit by both a fall in electricity price and lower electricity and green cert. production.
  • Volume expansion: +3mcm of additional volumes heated. This structural growth will positively impact margins from this year onwards.

Outlook: In the first months of 2017 a supportive energy scenario has been still in place. Volumes heated growth, a recovery in hydroelectric production and good marginality on the electricity market will however support the performance of the BU.

m€ FY '15 FY '16 Δ Δ%
Revenues 813 908 95 12%
Ebitda 199 234 35 18%
Ebit 74 104 30 39%
Gross Capex 36 60 24 66%

MARKET – Active exploitation of the scenario.

  • Supportive price trend and hedging opportunities
  • Active client management and client-base growth:
  • +42% electricity volumes sold to end Clients.
  • 1.6m Clients (+93k additional Clients, of which 54K from Atena consolidation).
  • Regulatory update (PCV, RCV)
  • Strong improvement in shipping and logistics policy (gas)

Outlook: The 2016 was positively affected by favorable scenario (+20m€). The strategic focus will be on the "New Downstream" project aimed at improving the offer: innovative and more efficient domestic energy uses, higher loyalty, stable churn-rate.

3,147 1,845 1,952 FY '15 FY '16 Retail Clients Business Clients ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO* (GWh) GAS PORTFOLIO (MCM) Uses *net of Ipex, wholesalers and other 5,099 3,580 +42% +8%

m€ FY '15 FY '16 Δ Δ%
Revenues 2,377 2,187 -190 -8%
Ebitda 87 134 47 55%
Electricity 13 52 39 n.r.
Gas&Heat 74 82 8 11%
Ebit 41 79 38 92%
Gross Capex 14 16 2 14%

NETWORKS – Synergies offsetting wacc reduction.

  • Energy networks: the positive impact of the time-lag mechanism on the electricity network (+15m€) and the achievement of significant synergies more than offset the reduction in Wacc and the absence of positive equalization reported in 2015.
  • Water networks: The slight increase in EBITDA is linked mainly to the change in perimeter (SAP concessions).
m€ FY '15 FY '16 Δ Δ%
Revenues 859 854 -5 -1%
Ebitda 304 319 15 5%
Electricity* 76 83 7 10%
Gas 72 73 1 1%
Water 156 163 7 4%
Ebit 196 183 -13 -7%
Gross Capex 161 149 -12 -8%

*15m€ time-lag effect

Outlook: The IRETI set-up will drive the exploitation of further synergies .

Pag. 7 * *Including Atena and residual SAP concessions consolidation effect

WASTE – Performance driven by consolidation and internal growth.

  • Consolidaton: approximately 40m€ of additional margin coming from TRM. The contribution of the recently acquired R.E.I. landfill will start from 2Q 2017.
  • Internal Growth: Synergies exploitation together with higher saturation of PAI thanks to its use for disposal of Reggio Emilia urban waste.
  • The growth in EBITDA is magnified at the EBIT level (4x 2015 results).

Outlook: Further saturation of the WTE plants along with strong push on the adoption of modern "pay-as-you-throw" sorted waste collection systems, synergistic with the expected development of IREN's treatment plant portfolio.

Waste (Kton)

m€ FY '15 FY '16 Δ Δ%
Revenues 463 502 39 8%
Ebitda 65 119 54 83%
Ebit 10 53 43 n.s.
Gross Capex 21 23 2 8%

WTEs - Electricity and Heat sold (GWh)

FY '15 FY '16 Δ Δ%
EBITDA 677.8 814.2 136.4 20.1%
Higher D&A linked mainly to TRM
D&A -267.6 -304.4 consolidation.

Higher provisions related to a number of
Provisions -63.3
-82.9
extraordinary items for approx. 20m€
(BDP stable).
EBIT 346.8 426.8 80.0 23.1%
Higher Financial charges for loans due
to TRM consolidation.
Financial charges for loans -79.0 -93.0
Higher non-recurring "other financial
charges" due to liability management
Other financial charges -15.8 -43.9 operations (including the cost for the
early redemption of a puttable bond,
Companies cons with e.m.and adj. -6.3
13.5
effective in Q4 2017 in terms of reduction
in cost of debt).
EBT 245.7 303.4 57.7 23.5%
Adj. in TRM participation value.
Taxes -105.7 -118.1
Net of the extraordinary item relating to a
Minorities -21.9 -11.3 litigation with the Italian Revenue Agency
the tax rate would have been ~35%.
Group net profit 118.2 174.0 55.8 47.2%

Cash-flow and NFP Bridge.

  • Net of the effect deriving from TRM consolidation and other minor acquisitions, the net debt would have reported a 147m€ decrease, thanks to an effective NWC management and higher CF.
  • Net Debt/EBITDA equal to 3.0x, declining from 3.2x reported in 2015. The result is even more significant on a like-for-like basis: 2.7x

Interest rate and debt structure.

  • 89% of gross debt at fixed interest rate.
  • Average long-term debt duration of about 5.1 years.
  • Cost of debt in line with 2015 (3.4%) in spite of the TRM negative impact (+0.2%).
  • IREN's debt is formed of:
  • 46% bonds
  • 32% EIB loans
  • 22% other loans

Actual progress vs. business plan targets.

  • We confirm our scenario assumptions
  • Improved visibility on organic growth and synergies achievements

The excellent operating performances (EBITDA +20.1%; NP + 47.2%) and the effectiveness in debt reduction have led to the earlier than expected achievement of a NFP/EBITDA ratio of 3.0x, allowing for a higher dividend per share distribution for the second consecutive year.

3.2x 3.0x Expected PFN/Ebitda Financial flexibility

NFP and NFP/EBITDA ratio

DPS proposed: 0.0625 €/sh. (+14% vs 2015; + 6% vs BP target)

Annexes

EBITDA progress by SBU.

GENERATION AND DH

  • Scenario assumptions confirmed:
  • PUN@2019 51.8€/Mwh; PUN@2021 54.7€/Mwh
  • SS@2019 4.5€/Mwh; SS@2021 4.8€/Mwh
  • Significant investments in DH expansion which will exceed 95mcm of heated volumes.
  • EBITDA substantially stable in spite of GCs Expiry worth ~40m€.
  • 2017-2021 Capex 515m€.

MARKET

  • Client base growth trend and business plan targets confirmed: 1.9m@2021.
  • Exploiting the full deployment of the "New downstream" policy and the full liberalization of electricity market.
  • 2017-2021 Capex 125m€.

EBITDA progress by SBU.

NETWORKS

  • Significant RAB increase through organic and external growth (gas tenders in Parma and Vercelli).
  • Important synergies stemming from the setting up and full operation of IRETI.
  • 2017-2021 Capex 920m€.

WASTE

  • Development of sorted waste treatment plants together with a significant increase in special waste collection and trading.
  • Full deployment of the consolidation of TRM/AMIAT and selective exploitation of M&A operations in the sector.
  • 2017-2021 Capex 235m€.

IREN at a glance (2016).

~1.6M in the energy sector

~2.7M served inhabitants in the water service

  • ~2.1M served inhabitants in the waste sector
  • ~1.0M served inhabitants in district heating
  • >3.5 services provided per clients

REGULATED ACTIVITIES (45% OF EBITDA)

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

  • Electricity distribution: 7,700km covered
  • Gas distribution: 8,000km covered

WATER SERVICE

  • ~18,500km of water pipes
  • 170 mcm distributed volumes

URBAN WASTE COLLECTION

  • 147 municipalities covered
  • 1.2m tons Municipal waste collected
  • 59% of sorted waste (v. national avg. 47.5%)

QUASI REGULATED ACTIVITIES (26% OF EBITDA)

HYDROELECTRIC GREEN CERT.

• 600 GWh GCs produced through hydro generation

DISTRICT HEATING

  • 900km of pipes and 850,000 inhabitants covered

  • 85mcm of district heated volumes
  • 2.9 Twht volumes produced

URBAN WASTE DISPOSAL

• 3 Waste To Energy plants (~800Kton/y)

UNREGULATED ACTIVITIES (29% OF EBITDA)

2,700 MW OF GENERATION CAPACITY

  • 1,300 MW from cogen. plants connected to DH networks.
  • 600 MW from hydroelectric plants.
  • 800 MW from Turbigo plant (the only thermoelectric plant running on merchant base)

ENERGY MARKET

• ~9.5 TWh electricity uses; ~2.8 bcm gas uses;

SPECIAL WASTE

• ~410K tons of special waste collected

2015 Ranking (energy market).

2015 Ranking (water and waste cycle).

Water: volumes distributed (mcm)

Shareholding structure and corporate governance.

(1) Including the conversion on 6th March of 14,001,986 preferred shares into ordinary shares; (2) Including 3.44% Kairos and Partners stake (3)Preferred Shares without voting rights

  • IREN's share capital included 94.500.000 non-listed preferred shares without voting rights, owned by Finanziaria Città di Torino (100% owned by Turin Municipality).
  • In November 2015 Finanziaria Città di Torino launched an exchangeable bond on 80,498,014 IREN's preferred stocks (94,500,000-80,498,014=14,001,986 residual preferred stocks)
  • The bond's maturity is 5 years and it can be converted into IREN ordinary share anytime until 45 days prior to the date fixed for the redemption of the bond. The conversion price is ~1.86€/Sh.
  • At present, no conversion right has been exercised. A possible conversion could be exercised in the future, leading to a positive increase in the free float of the company.
  • In March 2017 FCT sold the residual 14,001,986 preferred shares through an ABB procedure, converting them into ordinary shares, therefore, the share capital of IREN S.p.A. is therefore currently made of 1,195,727,663 ordinary shares and of 80,498,014 preferred shares.

Regulated business – Defined wacc values.

Gas Electricity Water
distrib. distrib. service
Regulatory
period
6 years
(2014 –
2019)
8 years
(2016 –
2023)
4 years
(2016

2019)
WACC methodology
update
6 years
(2016 –
2021)
6 years
(2016 –
2021)
WACC update every every every
three three two
years years years
(2019) (2019) (2018)
2016–
2018
Gas distribution 6.1%
Gas metering 6.6%
Electricity
distrib.
and metering
5.6%
2016–
2017
Integrated
water service
5.39%*
FY '15 FY '16 Δ%
Gas Demand (bcm) 67 70 5%
TTF €/000 scm 210 148 -30%
PSV €/000 scm 255 167 -35%
Energy Demand (Twh) 315 310 -2%
PUN (€/Mwh) 52.3 42.7 -18%
CO2
€/Ton
7.7 5.4 -30%
Green Cert. Hydro (€/Mwh) 100.1 100.1 =
FY '16 FY '15
Net fixed assets 5,220 4,648
Net Working Capital 171 154
Funds -562 -526
Other assets and liabilities -84 -46
Net invested capital 4,745 4,231
Group Sharholders' equity 2,288 2,062
Net Financial Position 2,457 2,169
Total Funds 4,745 4,231

DISCLAIMER

The Manager in charge of drawing up the corporate accounting documents and the Chief Financial Officer of IREN S.p.A., Mr. Massimo Levrino, hereby declares, pursuant to paragraph 2 of article 154 bis of the Consolidated Finance Act (Legislative Decree No 58/1998), that the accounting information contained in this presentation is consistent with the accounting documents, records and books.

This document was prepared by IREN mainly for use during meetings with investors and financial analysts. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or subscribe shares and neither this entire document or any portion of it may constitute a basis or provide a reference for any contract or commitment.

Some of the information contained in this document may contain projected data or estimates that are based on current expectations and on opinions developed by IREN and are based on current plans, estimates, projections and projects. Consequently, it is recommended that they be viewed as indicative only.

Projected data and estimates entail risks and uncertainties. There are a number of factors that could produce significant differences between projected results and actual results. In addition, results may be affected by trends that are often difficult to anticipate, are generally beyond IREN's control and could produce results and developments that are substantially different from those explicitly or implicitly described or computed in the abovementioned projected data and estimates. The non-exhaustive list that follows being provided merely by way of example, these risks include: significant changes in the global business scenario, fluctuations in the prices of certain commodities, changes in the market's competitive conditions and changes in the general regulatory framework.

Notice is also given that projected data are valid only on the date they are produced. Except for those cases in which the applicable statutes require otherwise, IREN assumes no obligation to provide updates of the abovementioned estimates and projected data.