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Frontline Plc — Investor Presentation 2016
May 31, 2016
6242_iss_2016-05-31_8287abf5-50d1-4e23-836e-fa69a8ac8c7e.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Q1 2016 Results
1
World leader in the international seaborne transportation of crude oil
Forward Looking Statements
MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.
FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "ANTICIPATE," "INTENDS," "ESTIMATE," "FORECAST," "PROJECT," "PLAN," "POTENTIAL," "MAY," "SHOULD," "EXPECT" "PENDING" AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE'S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINE BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE'S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.
IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE'S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE'S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE'S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCINGAND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE'S BUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE'S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.
Company Highlights
Q1 2016 Highlights Subsequent Events
Strong Performance
- Achieved net income attributable to the Company of \$78.9 million, or \$0.50 per share
- Announces a cash dividend of \$0.40 per share for the first quarter of 2016.
- Strong spot performance, particularly in the VLCC segment, despite market weakness in February and March
Fleet Growth and Renewal
• Took delivery of four LR2 tanker newbuilding's
Attractive Financing Secured
- Secured up to \$328.4 million in bank debt financing from China Exim Bank
- In process of obtaining commitment for further bank debt financing of up to \$324.6 million from China Exim Bank
- Secured commitment of up to \$275 million in additional funding from a company affiliated with Hemen Holding Ltd, Frontline's largest shareholder
- Terminated long-term charter for 1998-built VLCC
- Took delivery of one LR2 tanker newbuilding
First Quarter 2016
Q1 Performance and Q2 Guidance
(1) Estimated cash cost breakeven rates for the remainder of 2016 includes bareboat hire / installments, interest loans, opex/drydock, and G&A expenses.
Q1 2016 Financial Highlights
| (Million \$ except per share) | 2016 Jan - Mar |
|---|---|
| TC revenues (net of voyage expenses) | 192 |
| EBITDA (excl gain on sales)* | 141 |
| Net income | 79 ' |
| Earnings per share | 0,50 |
| Earnings per share adjusted for non recurring items | 0,57 |
| Cash dividend declared | 0,40 |
| Market Cap (Share price \$8.02) | 1 254 |
| Yield (annualized)** | 20 % |
* Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization, gains or losses on disposals and impairment charges ** Latest declared quarterly dividend annualized, divided by share price
(1) Based on 156,386,506 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2015
Income statement
| 2016 | 2015 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (in thousands of \$) | Jan - Mar | Oct -Dec | Jan-Dec |
| Total operating revenues | 227 103 | 243 429 | 949 007 |
| Gain on cancellation and sale of newbuilding contracts | - | 13 744 | 112 000 |
| Voyage expenses and commission | 35 525 | 49 788 | 235 630 |
| Contingent rental expense | (3 386) | 32 245 | 89 724 |
| Ship operating expenses | 29 458 | 38 754 | 150 988 |
| Charter hire expenses | 14 052 | 13 046 | 43 387 |
| Administrative expenses | 10 773 | 12 554 | 50 184 |
| Depreciation | 37 907 | 24 988 | 103 083 |
| Total operating expenses | 124 329 | 171 375 | 672 996 |
| Net operating income | ' 102 774 |
85 798 | 388 010 |
| Interest income | 87 | 34 | 103 |
| Interest expense | (13 944) | (12 542) | (57 764) |
| Share in results of associated companies | - | - | 12 088 |
| Impairment loss on shares | (2 351) | (9 369) | (9 369) |
| Foreign currency exchange gain (loss) | 338 | 106 | (66) |
| Mark to market loss on derivatives | (8 050) | (2 279) | (8 496) |
| Other non-operating items | 174 | 1 163 | 1 142 |
| Net income before income taxes and non-controlling interest | 79 028 | 62 911 | 325 648 |
| Income tax expense | (50) | (206) | (253) |
| Net income (loss) | 78 978 | 62 704 | 325 394 |
| Net (income) loss attributable to non-controlling interest | (72) | - | - |
| Net income attributable to the Company | 78 906 | 62 704 | 325 394 |
Impact of low cash breakeven levels
(1) Estimated cash cost breakeven rates for the remainder of 2016 includes bareboat hire / installments, interest loans, opex/drydock, and G&A expenses.
% change in TCE up from cash breakeven rates
' Quarterly impact on newbuildings fully delivered MUSD
Balance sheet
| (in \$ million) | 2016 Mar 31 |
2015 Dec 31 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | 272 | 265 |
| Restricted cash | 0,7 | 0,4 |
| Other Current assets | 174 | 203 |
| Long term assets: | ||
| Newbuildings | 243 | 266 |
| Vessels | 2 066 | 1 924 |
| Goodwill | 225 | 225 |
| Other long term assets | ' | 0,4 |
| Total assets | 2 980 | 2 883 |
| Current liabilities | 227 | 242 |
| Long term debt | 852 | 746 |
| Obligations under capital lease | 431 | 447 |
| Other long term liabilities | 3 | 3 |
| Noncontrolling interest | 0,1 | 0,1 |
| Frontline Ltd. stockholders' equity | 1 467 | 1 446 |
| Total liabilities and stockholders' equity | 2 980 | 2 883 |
Frontline in position to fully fund our NB program and has flexibility to further growth
Frontline newbuilding program 2016-17:
- Committed bank debt financing of up to \$394.4m
- Committed senior unsecured loan facility of \$275m
- In process of obtaining commitment for bank debt financing of up to \$324.6m
- Assuming VLCC financing up to \$337m basis 60% leverage of contract values
- Cash on hand adjusted by \$74m according to lease/bank agreements
We are in position to fully fund the entire NB program and have flexibility for further growth.
Time Charter Coverage Secures Cash Flow
Frontline captures market strength
- 35% of the operating fleet is currently covered on time charter.
- Time charter cover lowers the cash break even on our remaining spot fleet while also securing cash flow
Spot B/E adjusted for TC Cover
Time Charter Coverage
Substantial Change In Tanker Demand
Tanker rates have firmed based on a fundamental change in demand for tankers
- Oil supply has increased by 6 million bbls/day in the last four years
- Crude supply shipped has increased 8% in the last 2 years
- Oil flows from the Atlantic basin to the Far East, ton/mile set to remain high
- Global oil supply is expected to continue to grow with demand, according to IEA. This is supportive of the tanker market
Crude Tanker Orderbook
Fleet growth moderated by aging fleet
- The crude tanker order book remains significant, at the same time the fleet is aging
- New orders have slowed down significantly with limited availability of financing
- A lot of secondhand tonnage for sale. Ships on the water gives earnings power now and should be preferred.
| Type of Carterer | Approx Market Share | 'Official' Max Age |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese Majors | 34 % | 15,00 |
| Asian Other | 29 % | 19,17 |
| Western Oilmajors | 16 % | 17,50 |
| Sum /Average Max Age | 79,8 % | 17,22 |
Source: Fearnleys
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Market Outlook
Frontline expects tanker demand to remain strong