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Equinor — Earnings Release 2014
Feb 6, 2015
3597_rns_2015-02-06_5ab62ab2-e5d8-4b5e-8591-092ac766db4a.pdf
Earnings Release
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London, 6 February 2015 Eldar Sætre, President and CEO
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "ambition", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "focus", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "will", "guidance" and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding future financial position, results of operations and cash flows; changes in the fair value of derivatives; future financial ratios and information; future financial or operational portfolio or performance; future market position and conditions; business strategy; growth strategy; future impact of accounting policy judgments; sales, trading and market strategies; research and development initiatives and strategy; market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; competitive position; projected regularity and performance levels; expectations related to our recent transactions and projects, completion and results of acquisitions, disposals and other contractual arrangements; reserve information; future margins; projected returns; future levels, timing or development of capacity, reserves or resources; future decline of mature fields; planned maintenance (and the effects thereof); oil and gas production forecasts and reporting; domestic and international growth, expectations and development of production, projects, pipelines or resources; estimates related to production and development levels and dates; operational expectations, estimates, schedules and costs; exploration and development activities, plans and expectations; projections and expectations for upstream and downstream activities; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy prices; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy supply and demand; natural gas contract prices; timing of gas off-take; technological innovation, implementation, position and expectations; projected operational costs or savings; projected unit of production cost; our ability to create or improve value; future sources of financing; exploration and project development expenditure; effectiveness of our internal policies and plans; our ability to manage our risk exposure; our liquidity levels and management; estimated or future liabilities, obligations or expenses and how such liabilities, obligations and expenses are structured; expected impact of currency and interest rate fluctuations; expectations related to contractual or financial counterparties; capital expenditure estimates and expectations; projected outcome, objectives of management for future operations; impact of PSA effects; projected impact or timing of administrative or governmental rules, standards, decisions, standards or laws (including taxation laws); estimated costs of removal and abandonment; estimated lease payments, gas transport commitments and future impact of legal proceedings are forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for many reasons.
These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing; price and availability of alternative fuels; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations; the political and economic policies of Norway and other oil-producing countries; EU directives; general economic conditions; political and social stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; the sovereign debt situation in Europe; global political events and actions, including war, terrorism and sanctions; security breaches; situation in Ukraine; changes or uncertainty in or noncompliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new fields on stream; an inability to exploit growth or investment opportunities; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems; adverse changes in tax regimes; the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems; operator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder); counterparty defaults; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, climate change, and other changes to business conditions; an inability to attract and retain personnel; relevant governmental approvals; industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Statoil's business, is contained in Statoil's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2013, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found on Statoil's website at www.statoil.com.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements will meet these expectations. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the forward-looking statements. Unless we are required by law to update these statements, we will not necessarily update any of these statements after the date of this report, either to make them conform to actual results or changes in our expectations.
Firm priorities, stepping up commitments
| High value growth |
~2% organic production growth 2014-16 Reducing organic capex level to USD 18 bn in 2015 FCF to cover dividend in 2016@100, 2017@80 and 2018@60 Robust financials: Maintaining 15-30% net debt to capital employed |
|---|---|
| Increase efficiency |
USD 5 bn in cash improvements Increasing efficiency programme target by 30% Cash flow neutrality reduced by USD ~30 per barrel |
| Prioritise capital distribution |
Firm dividend policy dividend maintained at NOK 1.80/share1) 4Q 2014 |
Strengthening our capacity to create long-term value
| Firm priorities, stepping up commitments | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| High value growth | - ~2% organic production growth 2014-16 . Reducing organic capex level to USD 18 bn in 2015 - FCF to cover dividend in 2016@100, 2017@80 and 2018@60 . Robust financials: Maintaining 15-30% net debt to capital employed |
||
| Increase efficiency | . USD 5 bn in cash improvements Increasing efficiency programme target by 30% . Cash flow neutrality reduced by USD~30 per barrel |
||
| Prioritise capital distribution |
. Firm dividend policy + 4Q 2014 dividend maintained at NOK 1.80/share 1) |
||
| diacto accroial fort the critical General Meatrix | |||
| The Capital Markets Undate 2014 |
Efficiency programme on track
- Strengthened balance sheet
-
High-graded portfolio
-
Stepping up efficiency programme
- Strict capital prioritisation
- Managing portfolio flexibility
Well prepared Seizing the opportunity Investing in world-class projects
- Safe and efficient operations
- Strong and flexible portfolio
- Long-term value creation
2014 | Financial and operational performance
Four percent production growth
225 Solid adjusted earnings NOK bn
A leading explorer
Discovered bn boe
Returns reflecting price movement
1) Number of serious incidents per million working hours
2) 2013 Rebased production of 1.85 mmboe/d
Firm financial framework - through the cycle
Investing in premium projects
Resilient cash flow
Cash flow from operations, USD bn
Robust balance sheet
Net debt to capital
7 Note: The various scenarios for CFFO also imply different operational assumptions. The USD 100/bbl scenario assumes lower utilisation of capex flexibility while the USD 60/bbl case assumes larger utilisation of capex flexibility.
Stepping up our improvement programme
- 1) Modification costs include Statoil operated modifications and is compared to 2013 actual spend.
- 2) Well delivery time is compared to planned delivery time on sanction date per well.
- 3) Workforce reduced by 1900 compared to December 2013.
Step-change in operational performance
5 %-points increase in production efficiency1)
- 50,000 additional boe/d
- Reduced unplanned losses
- Reduced maintenance backlog
- Efficient execution of turnarounds
Proven execution track record
- Start-up of Gudrun, Valemon, Jack/St. Malo and CLOV
- Three new fast-track projects on stream
Delivering high-value growth
Strengthening midstream and trading business
- Proximity and access to premium markets
- High flexibility across value chain
- Integrated trading organisation in place
Value uplift and trading A modernised European contract portfolio
- A variety of sales channels
- Limited exposure to oil indexation
- Long term contracts still part of the tool box
Changes in oil vs gas risk exposure1)
- An increasingly liberalized European gas market
- Different market fundamentals for oil and gas
- Changes in corporate risk profile
Johan Sverdrup | A world-class project
11
Continued focus on exploration
A leading explorer1)
- 4.4 bn boe discovered last four years
- Significantly increased efficiency
Consistent exploration effort Build for the future in 2015
- USD 3.2 bn in exploration spend
-
Extensive drilling programme in high-value basins
-
Deepening positions in prolific basins
- Entry into five new basins
- Actively pursue playopening opportunities
Sustainable performance
Competitiveness Carbon Communities
- Extensive efficiency programme
-
High-graded and flexible portfolio
-
A leading O&G company on carbon efficiency1)
-
Developing low cost / low carbon solutions
-
Transparency the currency for trust
- Local suppliers programme
Key messages
- Priorities remain unchanged
- Well prepared
- Seizing the opportunity
- Investing for the future
London, 6 February 2015 Torgrim Reitan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "ambition", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "focus", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "will", "guidance" and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding future financial position, results of operations and cash flows; changes in the fair value of derivatives; future financial ratios and information; future financial or operational portfolio or performance; future market position and conditions; business strategy; growth strategy; future impact of accounting policy judgments; sales, trading and market strategies; research and development initiatives and strategy; market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; competitive position; projected regularity and performance levels; expectations related to our recent transactions and projects, completion and results of acquisitions, disposals and other contractual arrangements; reserve information; future margins; projected returns; future levels, timing or development of capacity, reserves or resources; future decline of mature fields; planned maintenance (and the effects thereof); oil and gas production forecasts and reporting; domestic and international growth, expectations and development of production, projects, pipelines or resources; estimates related to production and development levels and dates; operational expectations, estimates, schedules and costs; exploration and development activities, plans and expectations; projections and expectations for upstream and downstream activities; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy prices; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy supply and demand; natural gas contract prices; timing of gas off-take; technological innovation, implementation, position and expectations; projected operational costs or savings; projected unit of production cost; our ability to create or improve value; future sources of financing; exploration and project development expenditure; effectiveness of our internal policies and plans; our ability to manage our risk exposure; our liquidity levels and management; estimated or future liabilities, obligations or expenses and how such liabilities, obligations and expenses are structured; expected impact of currency and interest rate fluctuations; expectations related to contractual or financial counterparties; capital expenditure estimates and expectations; projected outcome, objectives of management for future operations; impact of PSA effects; projected impact or timing of administrative or governmental rules, standards, decisions, standards or laws (including taxation laws); estimated costs of removal and abandonment; estimated lease payments, gas transport commitments and future impact of legal proceedings are forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for many reasons.
These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing; price and availability of alternative fuels; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations; the political and economic policies of Norway and other oil-producing countries; EU directives; general economic conditions; political and social stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; the sovereign debt situation in Europe; global political events and actions, including war, terrorism and sanctions; security breaches; situation in Ukraine; changes or uncertainty in or noncompliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new fields on stream; an inability to exploit growth or investment opportunities; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems; adverse changes in tax regimes; the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems; operator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder); counterparty defaults; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, climate change, and other changes to business conditions; an inability to attract and retain personnel; relevant governmental approvals; industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Statoil's business, is contained in Statoil's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2013, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found on Statoil's website at www.statoil.com.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements will meet these expectations. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the forward-looking statements. Unless we are required by law to update these statements, we will not necessarily update any of these statements after the date of this report, either to make them conform to actual results or changes in our expectations.
2014 | Strong operational quality
| Earnings | Stable cost level, earnings impacted by prices and impairments |
|---|---|
| Production | Higher than expected due to strong regularity |
| Capex | USD 19.6 bn |
| Reserves | 96% organic RRR |
| Resources | 540 million boe added from exploration |
| Projects | On cost and schedule |
| Portfolio | USD 4.3 bn in proceeds from announced divestments |
| Dividend | NOK 7.20 per share1) |
Financial results negatively impacted by prices
Full year 2014
NOK bn
Fourth quarter 2014
NOK bn
Cost focus across the business
Statoil Group1) Strong operational quality
High operational efficiency
Johan Sverdrup: Statoil recommended as operator
Valemon: New field on stream in the North Sea
D&P Norway D&P International MPR Impacted by exploration and US onshore
Peregrino: High production
Solid results from gas value chains
Good results from European gas business
| recommended as operator | in the North Sea | regularity | gas business | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOK bn Adj.earnings |
Pre tax |
After tax |
Pre tax |
After tax |
Pre tax |
After tax |
Pre tax |
After tax |
| FY2014 | 136.1 | 39.1 | 105.5 | 29.1 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 17.8 | 8.1 |
| FY2013 | 163.1 | 46.4 | 132.5 | 34.8 | 20.7 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 4.2 |
| 4Q'14 | 26.9 | 4.3 | 24.2 | 6.8 | (2.8) | (5.0) | 5.1 | 2.2 |
| 4Q'13 | 42.3 | 11.0 | 35.4 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
Strong production above guided level
- 4% organic growth YoY
- Record operational efficiency on NCS
- Record international production
Cash flow 2014 in line with expectations
NOK bn
- Dividends paid for both 2013 and first two quarters of 2014
- Investments in line with guiding
- Net debt to capital employed at year end: 20%
Organic RRR ~1
- Solid organic RRR in 2014; total RRR impacted by divestments
- − 96% organic RRR, 62% total RRR
- − Both organic and total RRR for liquids above 100%
- − 117% three-year average organic RRR
- IOR, revisions and extensions remain important contributors to reserve additions
Capital markets update Firm priorities, stepping up commitments
| High value growth |
~2% organic production growth 2014-16 Reducing organic capex level to USD 18 bn in 2015 FCF to cover dividend in 2016@100, 2017@80 and 2018@60 Robust financials: Maintaining 15-30% net debt to capital employed |
|---|---|
| Increase efficiency |
USD 5 bn in cash improvements Increasing efficiency programme target by 30% Cash flow neutrality reduced by USD ~30 per barrel |
| Prioritise capital distribution |
Firm dividend policy dividend maintained at NOK 1.80/share1) 4Q 2014 |
Prepared to use material flexibility
Material flexibility in portfolio
Johan Sverdrup
Sanctioned capex
Flexibility from onshore and non-sanctioned projects 1)
US onshore Snorre 2040 Johan Castberg Bressay Krafla Trestakk Vito
Bay du Nord Tanzania LNG Pão de Açúcar King Lear Asterix Peon Lavrans
Opportunity to enhance value
- Prioritising high value projects
- Lower costs
- Simpler concepts
Growth to 2020 based on projects under execution 1)
Start-up year
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valemon Goliat Edvard Grieg Corrib Big Foot |
Ivar Aasen Julia Heidelberg |
Aasta Hansteen Gina Krog Mariner Gullfaks Rimfaksdalen Hebron Hibernia SW |
Stampede | Johan Sverdrup 2) Peregrino phase II |
Steering through volatility with strong cash flow
Strong cash flow from operations (CFFO)
Well positioned across scenarios
Average Brent price
0
5
10
15
20
USD bn
25
30
Robust financial framework
- Strong balance sheet to be maintained
- A-category rating on standalone basis
- Net debt to capital employed at 15-30%
- Long term financing
- Average ~9 years to maturity
- Firm dividend policy
- 4Q 2014 dividend of NOK 1.80 per share1)
- Share buy back remains part of toolbox
USD 5 bn in cash improvements
Efficiency improvements on track
- USD 0.6 bn realised in 2014
- Stepping up 2016 ambition by 30%
- Efficiency programme covers full operated cost base
- Strong momentum across organisation
Production growth from 2014-18 from projects in execution
Equity production
mboe/d
- 4% organic growth YoY in 2014
- ~2% production CAGR for 2014-16
- Johan Sverdrup start-up 2019
2) Rebased 2014 is adjusted with 59 mboe/d for full year impact of transactions with Wintershall and Petronas.
Enhancing value
| Period | Outlook | Key messages | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | 2015 | USD ~18 bn1) | USD |
~2 bn reduction Prepared to use flexibility |
| Production | 2014-16 | ~2% annual organic growth |
| Improved regularity |
| Cash improvements |
2016 | USD 5 bn (total) |
neutrality barrel |
Reducing cash flow by USD 30 per |
| ROACE | 2015-16 | Maintaining returns at 2013 level adjusted for price and currency |
| Improving cost and capital efficiency |
| Exploration | 2015 | ~3.2 bn1) USD |
Investing |
for the future |
Investing for profitable growth
Investment profile 2015-16
- 65% in liquids
- 55% in new assets
- 60% in operated assets
- 90% upstream related
Sensitivities1)– Indicative effects on 2015 results
NOK bn