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Deutsche Wohnen SE Investor Presentation 2016

Aug 12, 2016

113_ip_2016-08-12_86070445-c3c0-4a0c-979e-fa42fea57e0d.pdf

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Deutsche Wohnen AG

» H1 2016 results

Conference Call, 12 August 2016

» Financial highlights H1 2016

Operational development KPIs
In EUR m H1
2016
YoY In EUR m H1 2016 YoY
NOI letting 272.9 +15.2% FFO
I (after minorities)
196.7 +37.8%
NOI margin 78.5% +2.9ppt in EUR/ share1) 0.58 +24.2%
Like-for-like rental
growth
3.8% +1.3ppt FFO I margin 56.6% +11.1ppt
Vacancy
rate
1.8% -0.3ppt FFO
II (after minorities)
233.4 +23.6%
NOI nursing 8.7 +10.1% in EUR/ share1) 0.69 +11.3%
FFO contribution 6.6 +10.0% 2)
Adj. EBITDA (excl. disposals)
266.5 +18.3%
Occupancy
rate
98.4% +1.9ppt Adj. EBITDA margin 76.6% +8.4ppt
Earnings
from
disposals
36.7 -20.6% Cost
ratio
9.9% -1.8ppt
Gross margin
privatization
38% -6ppt per unit3)
Cost
(in EUR)
431 -14.1%
Gross margin
inst. sales
16% +8ppt In EUR m H1 2016 YTD
Free cash flow
impact
205.0 -43.4% 4)
EPRA NAV per share
(undiluted)
25.04 8.8%
ICR 5.7x +2x LTV 41.2% +3.2ppt

1) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (H1 2016: 337.43m; H1 2015: 304.05m); 2) Adjusted for one-off effects excluding disposals; 3) Corporate expenses annualized divided by avg. units in period; 4) based on 337.5m shares outstanding

» Focused and concentrated portfolio with attractive reversionary potential

Strategic cluster Residential units % of total
measured by
fair value
In-place rent1)
30/06/2016
EUR/sqm/month
Rent potential2)
30/06/2016
in %
Vacancy
30/06/2016
in
%
Strategic core and growth
regions
153,869 98.2% 6.02 21% 1.7%
Core+ 134,918 89.4% 6.09 24% 1.6%
Core 18,951 8.8% 5.53 12% 2.0%
Non-core 4,778 1.8% 5.11 n/a 5.5%
Total 158,647 100% 6.00 21% 1.8%
Thereof Greater Berlin 111,046 73.1% 6.00 23% 1.6%

Further rent potential in Core+ regions of unchanged ~24%

Vacancy rate in Core+ portfolio declined by 50bps over 12 months to c. 1.6%

1) Contractually owed rent from rented apartments divided by rented area; 2) Unrestricted residential units (letting portfolio); rent potential = new-letting rent compared to in-place rent (letting portfolio); 3) Including signed acquisitions and disposals with transfer of ownership after 31/12/2015

» Strong dynamics in Core+ underpinned by EUR 731m value uplift

Revaluation of EUR ~0.73bn or EUR 901) per sqm leading to a multiple expansion by 1.0x to 19.1x Uplift in Greater Berlin by EUR 971) per sqm or by 7% to EUR 1,457 per sqm (20.3x) Also positive development in Core regions by EUR 901) per sqm to EUR 984 per sqm or by 10% (14.8x) Key figures H1 2015 FY 2015 H1 2016 Total fair value in EUR 10.3bn 11.7bn 13.5bn Area (sqm) in m 8.9 9.1 9.8 Multiple (current rent) 16.7x 18.1x 19.1x Yield (current rent) 6.0% 5.5% 5.2% Annualized in-place rent in EUR 615m 648m 708m Summary

1) Without acquisitions and disposals

» Attractive spread between in-place and market rent multiples offer further potential for NAV growth 1) 1)

Regions Residential
units
#
FV
(30/06/2016)
EUR m
FV
(30/06/2016)
EUR/sqm
Multiple
in-place rent
(30/06/2016)
Multiple
market
rent
(30/06/2016)
Multiple
in-place rent
(31/12/2015)
Fair Value
(31/12/2015)
EUR/sqm
Core+ 134,918 12,071 1,453 19.8 16.4 18.7 1,347
Greater
Berlin
111,046 9,872 1,457 20.3 16.6 19.2 1,360
Rhine-Main 9,706 1,047 1,702 19.3 16.2 17.7 1,581
Rhineland 5,024 382 1,199 15.7 14.1 15.1 1,078
Mannheim /
Ludwigshafen
4,983 332 1,036 15.0 13.7 14.3 986
Dresden 3,161 261 1,204 18.8 15.8 18.5 1,153
Other Core+ 998 176 2,976 24.8 21.4 - -
Core 18,951 1,189 984 14.8 13.1 13.6 894
Hanover
/ Brunswick
9,242 595 972 14.4 12.6 13.5 908
Kiel
/ Lübeck
4,956 313 1,057 15.9 14.1 12.7 807
Core cities
eastern
Germany
4,753 281 936 14.6 13.3 14.2 918
Non-Core 4,778 238 740 12.6 11.0 12.0 641
Total 158,647 13,498 1,372 19.1 15.9 18.1 1,282

» Price development in Berlin outpaces other metropolitan areas

Valuation
by
Berlin cluster
(H1 2016)
Subcluster #
of
units
in % FV
in
EUR/ sqm
multiple in
place rent
multiple
market rent
Hot spot 34,046 31.8 1,716 22.2x 18.1x
Growth 44,141 41.2 1,443 20.0x 16.4x
Stable 28,837 26.9 1,231 18.7x 15.4x
Total 107,024 100 1,469 20.4x 16.7x
Source: Deutsche Wohnen
  • Price development in Berlin has outperformed the other top cities in Germany in recent years (+68% since 2012)
  • Average offer price at EUR 2,228 per sqm in H1/2016 significantly above Deutsche Wohnen's current portfolio valuation of c. EUR 1,470 per sqm
  • Deutsche Wohnen portfolio valuation ranging from EUR 1,231 1,716 per sqm depends strongly on micro location as well as quality of product
  • More than 70% of Deutsche Wohnen Berlin portfolio located in the"hot spot" and "growth" clusters
  • Recent portfolio transactions underpin further valuation upside

» Strong fundamentals support capital growth

Source: destatis, Amt für Statistik Berlin Brandenburg

  • Strong increase of disposable income coupled with lower unemployment support increases in rents and prices
  • Supply demand imbalance will tighten further in metropolitan areas, in particular in Berlin with expected supply shortage of 170,000 units until 2020
  • New construction not able to close the gap anytime soon
  • Significant increase of costs for new construction and land plots
  • Replacement cost in Berlin incl. land c. 2x H1 2016 book values of Deutsche Wohnen
  • At current rent level new construction only economically viable in higher / luxury segment of market and/or for privatization
  • Recent institutional portfolio transactions in Berlin support positive stance on Berlin market
  • Transaction prices ranging from EUR 1,500 to >2,500 per sqm or 20-30x net cold rent, depending on quality
  • Local investors and pension funds with long investment horizons dominate cycle
  • Price development fundamentally driven
  • Structural supply demand imbalance in combination with a liquid transaction market and significantly increased replacement cost will result in a further decoupling of asset values from the underlying rent development

» Nursing and assisted living market in Germany

Source: Pflegemarkt as of 17/12/2015

Source: RWI (Nursing Home Rating Report 2015)

  • Nursing market with c. EUR 40bn annual turnover 4 th largest sub-segment within healthcare sector (€27.6bn in- and €12.3bn outpatient nursing care)
  • Germany largest nursing market in Europe
  • Demand for inpatient care expected to grow by >30% until 2050 compared to 2013 figures
  • Highly fragmented market; observed consolidation through M&A in recent years
  • Nursing market favoured by (irreversible) demographic trends
  • Share of elderly people expected to grow from 20% in 2010 to 30% by 2050
  • Demand for beds will outstrip supply leading to higher occupancy levels for existing operations
  • All German regions expected to benefit from positive trends
  • Fundamentals are strong and promising for the long term while still showing significant yield premiums to other German asset classes
  • Key risks: Availability of skilled personnel and regulatory developments

» Acquisition overview

Object of
purchase

28 nursing (c. 3.700 places) and assisted living
facilities (c. 400
places) with 180k sqm

Only assets acquired, not the operating
business
Deal
structure

Asset deal
Lease
revenues

EUR 27.3m p.a.
Margins
(run rate)

Expected EBITDA margin of c.
95%
WALT
Weighted average lease term of c. 13 years
(c. 24 years including extension option)
Expected
closing

End
of 2016 (subject to supervisory board
approval of seller which is expected end of
August)
  • Facilities of high quality in good locations predominantly in West Germany
  • Good market positioning from a price/ performance perspective
  • Well-known operators with proven track record and high credit-worthiness
  • Mature operations with avg. occupancy of 87%
  • Among top 10 operators in Germany
  • Vast majority of lease agreements structured as triple net contracts incl. indexation
  • Contracts provide for defined investments to be undertaken by lessee to maintain quality of assets during lease term
  • No material capex backlog
  • All but one lease contracts linked to German CPI

Executed on communicated strategy to grow nursing and assisted living business – attractive add-on business with high earnings contribution at low risk profile

» Portfolio details (1/2)

=> Good positioning within competitive landscape with facilities located in strong local markets

» Portfolio details (2/2)

Pro Seniore Residenz (Oberau, Bavaria) Pro Seniore Residenz (Kempten, Bavaria)

Pro Seniore Residenz (Radolfzell, Baden-Württemberg) Sozialkonzept Cäcilienhof (Garbsen, Lower Saxony)

» Strong earnings and cash contributions from letting

in EUR m H1 2016 H1
2015
Rental income 347.8 313.3
Non-recoverable
expenses
(4.4) (6.9)
Rental loss (3.4) (3.5)
Maintenance (43.7) (39.2)
Others (4.2) (4.6)
Earnings
from
Residential Property
Management
292.1 259.1
Personnel, general
and
administrative expenses
(19.2) (22.3)
Net Operating Income (NOI) 272.9 236.8
NOI
margin
78.5% 75.6%
NOI
in EUR / sqm
/ month
4.63 4.36

in EUR m H1 2016 H1 2015

Net operating income (NOI) 272.9 236.8 Cash interest expenses (51.1) (68.2)

Development of
NOI margin
78.5%
76.2% 75.6%
H1-2014 H1-2015 H1-2016

Increased rental income and further efficiencies in operating business resulting in improved NOI margin

221.8 168.6

Cash flow from portfolio after cash interest

expenses

» Growing prices as demonstrated by disposal business

Disposals Privatization Institutional
sales
Total
with
closing
in
H1 2016 H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2015
No. of
units
749 950 1,505 6,379 2,254 7,329
Proceeds (EUR m) 90.0 93.4 130.9 413.7 220.9 507.1
Book value 65.2 65.0 113.0 383.8 178.2 448.8
Price
in EUR per sqm
1,518 1,408 1,114 952 n/a n/a
Earnings
(EUR
m)
19.7 22.5 17.0 23.7 36.7 46.2
Gross margin 38% 44% 16% 8% 24% 13%
Cash flow
impact
(EUR
m)
80 51 125 312 205 362

Disposal business contributed cash flows of EUR 205m in H1 2016

Privatization: Disposal of below-average quality at continued attractive margins

Institutional sales: consisted predominantly of a Berlin city-border portfolio with 900 units

» Attractive FFO contribution from Nursing and Assisted Living

in EUR m H1
2016
H1
2015
Income
Nursing 27.4 26.1
Living 3.2 3.0
Other 4.0 3.8
Total income 34.6 32.9
Costs
Nursing and
corporate
expenses
(8.2) (8.3)
Staff
expenses
(17.7) (16.7)
Total costs (25.9) (25.0)
Earnings
from
Nursing and
Assisted
Living (NOI)
8.7 7.9
expenses1)
Cash interest
(2.1) (1.9)
FFO contribution 6.6 6.0
#
of
facilities
# of places
KATHARINENHOF 20 2,048
Acquired portfolio 28 4,132
Total pro forma 48 6,180

NOI contribution including acquired nursing portfolio of EUR >40m (annual run rate) expected, translating into a ROCE of >7%

» Best in class EBITDA margin

in EUR m H1
2016
H1
2015
Earnings
from
Residential Property Management
292.1 259.1
Earnings
from
Disposals
36.7 46.2
Earnings
from
Nursing and
Assisted
Living
8.7 7.9
Segment
contribution
margin
337.5 313.2
Corporate
expenses
(34.6) (36.8)
Other
operating
expenses/income
0.3 (16.3)
EBITDA 303.2 260.1
One-offs 0.0 11.3
EBITDA (adjusted) 303.2 271.4

Significant step-up of adj. EBITDA margin by 8.3pp (excl. disposals) driven by improvement of NOI and reduction of corporate expenses

» Operational improvements and acquisitions drive FFO growth

in EUR m H1
2016
H1
2015
EBITDA (adjusted) 303.2 271.4
Earnings from Disposals (36.7) (46.2)
At equity
valuation
0.9 0.9
Interest expense/ income (52.7) (68.6)
Income taxes (14.4) (11.0)
Minorities (3.6) (3.8)
FFO
I
196.7 142.7
Earnings from Disposals 36.7 46.2
FFO II 233.4 188.9
in EUR1)
FFO I per share
0.58 0.47
in EUR1)
FFO II per share
0.69 0.62

FFO I per share increased by 23% yoy

Dividend expected to increase by 30% to EUR >0.73 per share for 20162)

1) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (H1 2016: 337.43m; H1 2015: 304.05m); 2) Based on FFO I guidance of at least EUR 380m and 337.5m shares outstanding

» Steady increase of EPRA NAV per share

in EUR m 30/06/2016 31/12/2015
Equity (before
non-controlling interests)
7,067.7 6,653.5
Fair values
of
derivative financial
instruments
64.8 44.8
Deferred
taxes
(net)
1,316.8 1,064.1
EPRA NAV (undiluted) 8,449.3 7,762.4
Shares outstanding
in m
337.5 337.4
EPRA NAV per share
in EUR
(undiluted)
25.04 23.01
Effects
of
exercise
of
convertibles
1,039.81) 952.1
EPRA
NAV (diluted)
9,489.1 8,714.5
Shares diluted
in m
370.8 370.2
EPRA
NAV per share
in EUR (diluted)
25.59 23.54
Goodwill GSW (535.1) (535.1)
Shares outstanding
in m
337.5 337.4
Adj. NAV per share
(undiluted)
23.45 21.42

1) Current strike price: 17.45 EUR and 21.01 EUR correspond to ~33.4m shares

» Guidance for 2016 increased (base case1 )

Guidance 2016
2015 H1 2016 Old New Mid-term outlook
EPRA NAV per
share (undiluted)
23.01 25.04 25 -
26
>26
FFO I in EUR m 303 197 >360 >380
Dividend per
share
0.54 n/a ~0.70 >0.73
LTV2) 43%* 41% <40% <40%

1) Without acquisitions and opportunistic portfolio disposal as well as excluding changes in goodwill impairment and valuation of financial instruments, based on current number of outstanding shares 2) * 2015 pro forma acquisitions

» Appendix

» Management board and areas of responsibilities

Michael Zahn Chief Executive Officer (CEO)

Areas of responsibility:

  • Strategy
  • Rent development & investments
  • Strategic participations
  • HR
  • PR & Marketing

Lars Wittan Chief Investment Officer (CIO)

Areas of responsibility:

  • Asset Management
  • Accounting/Tax
  • Controlling
  • Risk Management
  • IT/Organisation

Philip Grosse Chief Financial Officer (CFO)1)

Areas of responsibility:

  • Equity Financing
  • Debt Financing
  • Treasury
  • Investor Relations
  • Legal/Compliance

1) Starting from 1 Sep 2016

» Strong like-for-like development as of 30 June 2016

Like-for-like
30/06/2016
Residential units
number
In-place rent2)
30/06/2016
EUR/sqm
In-place rent2)
30/06/2015
EUR/sqm
Change
y-o-y
Vacancy
30/06/2016
in %
Vacancy
30/06/2015
in %
Change
y-o-y
portfolio1)
Letting
130,851 6.04 5.81 3.9% 1.4% 1.7% -0.3pp
Core+ 117,307 6.11 5.87 4.1% 1.4% 1.6% -0.2pp
Greater
Berlin
97,048 6.04 5.78 4.6% 1.4% 1.6% -0.2pp
Rhine-Main 8,426 7.45 7.26 2.5% 1.2% 1.5% -0.3pp
Mannheim/Ludwigshafen 4,762 5.71 5.64 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% -0.7pp
Rhineland 4,470 5.97 5.83 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% -0.1pp
Dresden 2,601 5.21 5.12 1.8% 2.4% 3.0% -0.6pp
Core 13,544 5.50 5.39 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% -0.7pp
Hanover
/ Brunswick
8,100 5.59 5.44 2.8% 1.6% 2.1% -0.5pp
Core cities
eastern
Germany
4,316 5.34 5.31 0.5% 2.4% 3.4% -1.0pp
Kiel
/ Lübeck
1,128 5.42 5.26 3.0% 1.8% 4.1% -2.3pp
Total 137,5273) 6.02 5.79 3.8% 1.7% 1.9% -0.2pp

Vacancy in Core+ letting portfolio at 1.4% - structural vacancy

  • Like-for-like rental growth in Core+ driven by re-letting (c. 1/3) and regular rent increase (c. 2/3) in particular driven by implementation of 2015 Berlin rent table
  • In Dresden like-for-like rental growth derived from re-lettings only

1) Cluster block sale of strategic core and growth regions allocated to letting portfolio; 2) Contractually owed rent from rented apartments divided by rented area; 3) Total L-f-l stock incl. Non-Core

» Focused and increasing investments into the portfolio

H1
2016
H1
2015
EUR m EUR m
Maintenance
(expensed through p&l)
43.7 39.2
Modernization
(capitalized on balance
sheet)
43.2 33.4
Total 86.9 72.6
Total EUR/ sqm1) 17.70 16.04
Capitalization
rate
49.7% 46.0%

1) Based on the quarterly average area

» Bridge from adjusted EBITDA to profit

in EUR m H1 2016 H1 2015
EBITDA (adjusted) 303.2 271.4
Depreciation (3.0) (2.7)
At equity
valuation
0.9 0.9
Financial result
(net)
1)
(58.1)
1)
(66.9)
EBT (adjusted) 243.0 202.7
Valuation
properties
731.3 705.0
One-offs 0.0 (50.0)
Valuation
SWAP and
convertible
bonds
(95.2) (51.2)
EBT 879.1 806.5
Current
taxes
(14.4) (18.0)
Deferred
taxes
(241.7) (245.7)
Profit 623.0 542.8
Profit attributable
to
the
shareholders
of
the
parent
company
605.3 524.0
per share2)
Earnings
1.79 1.72
in EUR m H1 2016 H1 2015
Interest expenses (53.2) (69.1)
In % of
rents
~15% ~22%
Non-cash interest
expenses
(5.5) 1.7
(67.4)
Interest income 0.6 0.5
Financial
result
(net)
(58.1) (66.9)

Thereof EUR (9.9m) from valuation of derivatives and EUR (85.3) m from convertible bonds

1) Adjusted for Valuation of SWAPs and convertible bonds; 2) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (H1-16: 337.43m; H1-15: 304.05m)

» Summary balance sheet

Assets Equity and Liabilities
in EUR m 30/06/2016 31/12/2015 in EUR m 30/06/2016 31/12/2015
Investment properties 13,454.4 11,859.1 Total equity 7,324.3 6,872.0
Other non-current
assets
615.8 614.3 Financial liabilities 4,444.0 3,780.4
Deferred
tax
assets
335.7 325.5 Convertibles 1,050.7 965.4
Non current
assets
14,405.8 12,798.9 Bonds 502.3 498.3
Land and
buildings
held
for
sale
362.9 66.9 Tax
liabilities
52.7 37.5
Trade receivables 30.5 13.4 Deferred
tax
liabilities
1,357.0 1,110.2
Other current
assets
85.9 159.3 Derivatives 64.8 44.8
Cash
and
cash equivalents
295.9 661.6 Other liabilities 385.2 391.5
Current
assets
775.2 901.2 Total liabilities 7,856.7 6,828.1
Total assets 15,181.0 13,700.1 Total equity
and
liabilities
15,181.0 13,700.1

Investment properties represent ~89% of total assets

Strong balance sheet structure offering comfort throughout market cycles

» Conservative long term capital structure with <1.7% interest costs

Rating A-
/ A3; stable
outlook
LTV 41.2%
ICR1) >5x
Ø maturity ~9 years
% secured
bank
debt
74%
% unsecured
debt
26%
Ø interest
cost
<1.7% (>80% hedged)
Key financial
principles
LTV: 35-45%
fully
flexible regarding
secured
or
unsecured
financing
  • Low leverage, long maturities and best in class rating
  • Flexible financing approach to optimize financing costs
  • No significant maturities until and including 2019, thereafter maturity profile evenly spread
  • Convertible bonds accounted 100% as debt (deeply in the money)
  • Base case LTV 2016 <40% expected3)

1) adjusted EBITDA/ interest expenses, 2) Pro forma 30.06.2016 incl. a refinancing of EUR 0.1bn at the end of July 2016; 3) Excluding changes in valuation of financial instruments

» Strong generation of total shareholder return

Development of EPRA NAV (undiluted) in EUR per share

  • Top line growth via acquisitions and operational improvements as well as refinancing/ debt paydown translates into FFO growth (CAGR 2012-2016e: 13%)
  • Beeing invested in the right markets delivers NAV growth over time, based on strong fundamental trends (CAGR 2012-2016e: 27%)
  • Via targeted modernization projects, further improvement of rents and capital growth
  • NAV growth results in further LTV reduction and improvement of the risk profile

» THE BERLIN-PORTFOLIO AT A GLANCE

» Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements including assumptions, opinions and views of Deutsche Wohnen or quoted from third party sources. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could cause actual results, financial positions, the development or the performance of Deutsche Wohnen to differ materially from the estimations expressed or implied herein. Deutsche Wohnen does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor do they accept any responsibility for the future accuracy of the opinions expressed in this presentation or the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, any information, including projections, estimates, targets and opinions, contained herein, and no liability whatsoever is accepted as to any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein, and accordingly, none of Deutsche Wohnen AG or any of its affiliates (including subsidiary undertakings) or any of such person's officers, directors or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document. Deutsche Wohnen does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation.

Deutsche Wohnen AG

Registered Office Pfaffenwiese 300 65929 Frankfurt/ Main Berlin Office Mecklenburgische Straße 57 14197 Berlin Phone: +49 30 897 86 5413 Fax: +49 30 897 86 5419

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