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CANCOM SE — Investor Presentation 2013
May 8, 2013
71_rns_2013-05-08_ac89b82f-e386-4833-80d8-8ba434d2fb25.pdf
Investor Presentation
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CANCOM
(CDAX, Software/IT)
| Value Indicators: | EUR | Share data: | Description: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | DCF: | 17.20 | Bloomberg: | COK GR | One of the three largest independent | ||
| FCF-Value Potential: | 15.00 | Reuters: | COKG | system houses in Germany | |||
| EUR 17.00 | ISIN: | DE0005419105 | |||||
| Market Snapshot: | EUR m | Shareholders: | Risk Profile (WRe): | 2013e | |||
| Market cap: | 192.0 | Freefloat | 77.0 % | Beta: | 1.4 | ||
| Price | EUR 16.80 | No. of shares (m): | 11.4 | Karin Schick | 10.0 % | Price / Book: | 2.4 x |
| Upside | 1.2 % | EV: | 169.5 | ELBER | 9.0 % | Equity Ratio: | 43 % |
| Freefloat MC: | 147.9 | S. Kober (Superv. Board) | 2.0 % | Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA: | -0.8 x | ||
| Ø Trad. Vol. (30d): | 930.84 th | Klaus Weinmann (CEO) | 2.0 % | Net Debt / EBITDA: | -0.8 x |
Preview: Strong March and higher service revenues support Q1 Final Q1 figures
| Expected Figures Q1/2013: | Comment on Figures: | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY End: 31.12. in EUR m |
Q1 13e |
Q1 12 |
yoy | 13e | 12 | yoy | Preliminary figures have already been announced |
| Sales | 135.1 | 141.1 | -4 % | 569.1 | 558.1 | 0 % | |
| EBITDA | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0 % | 27.9 | 28.1 | 3 % | |
| Margin | 5.2 % | 5.0 % | 5.0 % | 5.0 % | |||
| EBIT | 4.8 | 5.3 | -9 % | 19.9 | 20.7 | 2 % | |
| Margin | 3.6 % | 3.8 % | 3.6 % | 3.7 % | |||
| EPS | 0.28 | 0.26 | 8 % | 1.16 | 1.09 | 12 % |
CANCOM will release final figures on May 15. A conference call with CEO Klaus Weinmann is scheduled for 3 p.m. (CET).
Q1 was stronger than initially assumed (both revenue and EBITDA were expected to be below last year's Q1) owing to improved business in March (January and February were weak).
- Nevertheless, EBITDA was approximately unchanged thanks to a more favourable revenue mix with a higher share of services compared to reselling revenues.
- During the conference call, questions might arise in connection with CANCOM's new majority shareholder Karin Schick. She is the daughter of Bechtle's co-founder Gerhard Schick. Karin Schick also holds a 35% stake in Bechtle, which is CANCOM's strongest competitor in the area of small and mid-sized companies. We maintain our view that a takeover is not the intention, but it might reduce competition between the two rivals. According to the German law, she will have to publish the intention of her share purchase by the end of May.
- Q2 should benefit from good business in April. Furthermore, management referred to the expectation of customer gains in the area of CANCOM's proprietary private cloud solution AHP. On the other hand, management also intends to invest in future growth (i.e. increase number of staff). This looks set to negatively impact profitability over the next few quarters.
- Given the limited upside to our PT we will review estimates, PT and rating after the conference call.
| FY End: 31.12. in EUR m |
CAGR (12-15e) |
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013e | 2014e | 2015e | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Change Sales yoy |
3.0 % | 422.5 16.0 % |
474.6 12.3 % |
544.4 14.7 % |
558.1 2.5 % |
569.1 2.0 % |
589.0 3.5 % |
609.6 3.5 % |
||
| Gross profit margin | 27.6 % | 29.4 % | 29.1 % | 29.7 % | 30.3 % | 30.4 % | 30.4 % | |||
| EBITDA | 2.1 % | 10.4 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 27.9 | 29.0 | 29.8 | ||
| Margin | 2.5 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 4.9 % | 4.9 % | 4.9 % | |||
| EBIT | 1.2 % | 7.0 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 19.9 | 20.7 | 21.4 | ||
| Margin | 1.6 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 3.5 % | 3.5 % | 3.5 % | |||
| Net income | 8.5 % | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 14.6 | ||
| EPS | 5.5 % | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.16 | 1.24 | 1.28 | ||
| EPS adj. | 5.5 % | 0.49 | 0.77 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.16 | 1.24 | 1.28 | ||
| DPS | 0.0 % | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | ||
| Rel. Performance vs CDAX: | Dividend Yield | 6.4 % | 2.2 % | 3.4 % | 2.9 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | ||
| FCFPS | 0.58 | 0.86 | 1.67 | 0.34 | -0.30 | 1.05 | 1.03 | |||
| 1 month: | 5.6 % | EV / Sales | 0.0 x | 0.1 x | 0.1 x | 0.2 x | 0.3 x | 0.3 x | 0.3 x | |
| 6 months: | 28.2 % | EV / EBITDA | 2.0 x | 3.7 x | 2.9 x | 3.5 x | 6.1 x | 5.5 x | 5.1 x | |
| Year to date: | 16.4 % | EV / EBIT | 3.0 x | 4.6 x | 3.9 x | 4.7 x | 8.5 x | 7.8 x | 7.1 x | |
| Trailing 12 months: | 7.9 % | P / E | 4.8 x | 9.0 x | 8.0 x | 11.0 x | 14.5 x | 13.5 x | 13.1 x | |
| P / E adj. | 4.8 x | 8.9 x | 8.0 x | 11.0 x | 14.5 x | 13.5 x | 13.1 x | |||
| Company events: | FCF Yield Potential | 27.0 % | 9.1 % | 15.7 % | 9.8 % | 8.2 % | 9.1 % | 9.5 % | ||
| 15.05.13 | Q1 | Net Debt | -3.5 | -0.8 | -20.5 | -29.1 | -22.5 | -31.0 | -39.2 | |
| 18.06.13 | AGM | ROE | 12.2 % | 16.5 % | 20.6 % | 16.2 % | 16.4 % | 16.4 % | 15.1 % | |
| 13.08.13 | Q2 | ROCE (NOPAT) | 15.1 % | 24.1 % | 29.0 % | 29.1 % | 24.9 % | 24.3 % | 24.1 % | |
| 08.11.13 | Q3 | Guidance: | So far, no guidance for 2013 has been provided by the company. | |||||||
| A n a l y s t |
Andreas Wolf [email protected] +49 40 309537-140
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This research report was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and is passed on by the M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA. It contains selected information and does not purport to be complete. The report is based on publicly available information and data ("the information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither does examine the information to be accurate and complete, nor guarantees its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH for damages of any kind whatsoever, and M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are not liable for indirect and/or direct and/or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA nor Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the statements, plans or other details contained in these analyses concerning the examined companies, their affiliated companies, strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in compiling this research report, it cannot be excluded that it is incomplete or contains errors. M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations and the conclusions derived from the information contained in this document. Provided a research report is being transmitted in connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and wilful misconduct. In case of failure in essential tasks, M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages. This research report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA, Warburg Research GmbH or affiliated companies may serve in a position of responsibility, i.e. on the board of directors of companies mentioned in the report. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved.
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DISCLOSURE ACCORDING TO § 34B OF THE GERMAN SECURITIES TRADING ACT AND FINANV
The valuation underlying the rating of the company analysed in this report is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental valuation, such as the DCF model, Free Cash Flow Value Potential, peer group comparison and – where applicable – a sum-of-the-parts model.
M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH have set up internal organisational and administrative arrangements to prevent and avoid possible conflicts of interest and, where applicable, to disclose them.
Valuations, ratings and price targets for the companies analysed by Warburg Research GmbH are subject to constant reviews and may therefore change, if any of the fundamental factors underlying these items do change.
All share prices given in this equity analysis are closing prices from the last trading day before the publication date stated, unless another point in time is explicitly stated.
Neither Warburg Research GmbH's analysts nor M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA's analysts do receive any payments directly or indirectly from any investment banking activity of M.M.Warburg Bank or an affiliated company.
M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are under supervision of the BaFin – German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority.
SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act in combination with the FinAnV requires an enterprise preparing a securities analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of the analysis. A conflict of interest is assumed, in particular, when the enterprise preparing the analysis …
| -1- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company |
|---|---|
| -2- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise was a member in a consortium which acquired the shares of the analysed company within the last twelve months |
| -3- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise manages the securities of the analysed company on the basis of an existing contract |
| -4- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise over the previous 12 months has been providing investment banking services for the analysed company for which a compensation has been or will be paid |
| -5- | … effected an agreement with the analysed company for the preparation of the financial analysis |
| -6- | … or companies affiliated with this enterprise regularly trade in shares or derivatives of the analysed company |
| -7- | … or the analyst responsible for this company has other important financial interests in relation to the analysed company such as e.g. the performance of mandates for the analysed company |
| Company | Disclosure | Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months) |
|---|---|---|
| CANCOM | 5 | http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0005419105.htm |
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
| -B- | Buy: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months. |
|---|---|---|
| -H- | Hold: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months. |
| -S- | Sell: | The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months. |
| "-" | Rating suspended: | The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company. |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 111 | 58 |
| Hold | 64 | 33 |
| Sell | 14 | 7 |
| Rating suspended | 3 | 2 |
| Total | 192 | 100 |
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING …
… Looking only at companies for which a disclosure according to § 34b of the Germany Securities Trading Act and the FinAnV has to be made.
| Rating | Number of stocks | % of Universe |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 99 | 63 |
| Hold | 49 | 31 |
| Sell | 6 | 4 |
| Rating suspended | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 156 | 100 |
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY CANCOM AS OF 08.05.2013
The chart has markings if Warburg Research GmbH changed its rating in the last 12 months. Every marking represents the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
CANCOM
RESEARCH
Banks, Financial Services [email protected]
Head of Equity Sales, USA [email protected] Head of Sales Trading [email protected]
Klaus Schilling +49 40 3282-2664 Gudrun Bolsen +49 40 3282-2679 Dep. Head of Equity Sales, GER [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Julian Straube +49 40 3282-2666
Philipp Stumpfegger +49 40 3282-2635
Henner Rüschmeier +49 40 309537-270 Jochen Reichert +49 40 309537-130
Software, IT [email protected] Technology [email protected]
Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Automobiles, Car Suppliers [email protected]
Real Estate [email protected] Steel, Car Suppliers [email protected]
Andreas Pläsier +49 40 309537-246
Scandinavia, Spain [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Matthias Fritsch +49 40 3282-2696 Thekla Struve +49 40 3282-2668
Marie-Therese Grübner +49 40 3282-2630 Jörg Treptow +49 40 3262-2658 France [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Michael Kriszun +49 40 3282-2695 United Kingdom [email protected] Support
Marc Niemann +49 40 3282-2660 Katharina Bruns +49 40 3282-2694 Germany [email protected] Roadshow/Marketing [email protected]
Dirk Rosenfelder +49 40 3282-2692 Austria, Switzerland [email protected]
Small & Mid Caps [email protected]
Australia, United Kingdom [email protected]
Engineering, Logistics [email protected] Utilities [email protected]
SALES SALES TRADING
MACRO RESEARCH
Macro Research [email protected]
Investment Strategy [email protected]
Roland Rapelius +49 40 309537-220 Malte Räther +49 40 309537-185 Head of Research [email protected] Technology, Telco, Internet [email protected]
Head of Research hrueschmeier @warburg-research.com Telco, Internet, Media [email protected]
Christian Cohrs +49 40 309537-175 Christopher Rodler +49 40 309537-290
Felix Ellmann +49 40 309537-120 Malte Schaumann +49 40 309537-170
Jörg Philipp Frey +49 40 309537-258 Susanne Schwartze +49 40 309537-155 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Telco, Internet, Media [email protected]
Ulrich Huwald +49 40 309537-255 Oliver Schwarz +49 40 309537-250 Health Care, Pharma [email protected] Chemicals, Agriculture [email protected]
Thilo Kleibauer +49 40 309537-257 Marc-René Tonn +49 40 309537-259
Torsten Klingner +49 40 309537-260 Björn Voss +49 40 309537-254
Eggert Kuls +49 40 309537-256 Andreas Wolf +49 40 309537-140 Engineering [email protected] Software, IT [email protected]
Frank Laser +49 40 309537-235 Stephan Wulf +49 40 309537-150 Construction, Industrials [email protected] Utilities [email protected]
Holger Nass +49 40 3282-2669 Oliver Merckel +49 40 3282-2634
Christian Alisch +49 40 3282-2667 Bastian Quast +49 40 3282-2701
Tim Beckmann +49 40 3282-2665 Patrick Schepelmann +49 40 3282-2700 United Kingdom [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
United Kingdom [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected]
Carsten Klude +49 40 3282-2572
Matthias Thiel +49 40 3282-2401 Macro Research [email protected]
Dr. Christian Jasperneite +49 40 3282-2439
Our research can be found under:
| Andrea Carstensen Sales Assistance |
+49 40 3282-2632 [email protected] |
Kerstin Muthig Sales Assistance |
+49 40 3282-2703 [email protected] |
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