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Banco BPM SpA — Investor Presentation 2021
Nov 5, 2021
4282_ip_2021-11-05_10f07ebd-7f3d-4ad7-9aeb-08cd3fd2b349.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Strategic Plan 2021-2024
Delivering value in a new growth-oriented environment
5 November 2021


Disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared by Banco BPM ("Banco BPM") and includes certain forward looking statements, projections, objectives and estimates reflecting the current views of the management of the Bank with respect to future events.
Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates" and similar expressions. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements and information were developed from scenarios based on a number of economic assumptions for a given competitive and regulatory environment.
Banco BPM does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to Banco BPM or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by this disclaimer.
The information contained herein has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be given by Banco BPM, its subsidiaries or any of their respective representative, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information contained in this presentation and no responsibility or liability whatsoever is accepted by the same for the accuracy or sufficiency thereof or for any errors, omissions or misstatements negligent or otherwise relating there to.
The distribution of this presentation in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law or regulation. Accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves of, and observe, these restrictions. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Banco BPM and its subsidiaries disclaim any responsibility or liability for the violation of such restrictions by any person.
This presentation does not constitute a public offer under any applicable legislation or an offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of Banco BPM or an advice or recommendation with respect to such securities. This presentation and the information contained herein does not constitute an offer of securities in the United States or to any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the "Securities Act"), as amended), Canada, Australia, Japan or any other jurisdiction where such offer is unlawful.
For the purposes of this notice, "presentation" means this document, any oral presentation, any question and answer session and any written or oral material discussed following the distribution of this document. By participating to this presentation and accepting a copy of this presentation, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations regarding the information disclosed in this presentation.

Agenda




Out of the Crisis:
A new promising scenario

Scenario: multiple sources largely converging on strong GDP growth with upward Euribor movement mainly in 2024


1.PNRR = "Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza", i.e. Italy's National Recovery and Resilience Plan Source: Prometeia, Banco BPM Research Department
PNRR: the "once-in-a-lifetime" occasion for Italy to re-establish enduring and sustainable growth within the wider "Next Generation EU" initiative

- A program aimed at transforming the whole Italian economy, fully endorsed by the EU
- Huge indirect impact on private investments – and thus on bank lending
- A life-time opportunity for our country and, therefore, for a group like Banco BPM, with its strong presence in Italy's most dynamic geographic areas and industries

- Total funding = PNRR €191.5bn + React UE €13.0bn + Complementary fund €36.6bn 2. Source: MEF-DT elaboration on QUEST results, PNRR, Estimated GDP impact of PNRR components (percentage deviation from baseline)

7
Banco BPM's performance track record
Well-established areas of strength, proven ability to deliver
BANCO BPM: Well-established areas of strength with clear potential
| Strong franchise in Italy's wealthiest regions |
Regional weight on total loans to customers1 Lombardy: 41% Veneto: 12% Emilia-Romagna: 10% Piedmont: 8% |
~70% of our loans together represent |
in 4 regions which GDP2 ~50% of Italy's |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ability to provide a full range of products & services |
One of the primary Private Banks in the Italian market |
Top Italian broker, market maker and issuer of structured products |
Integrated leading digital brand, online since 1999 |
|
| Solid delivery track record |
• Successful completion, well ahead of schedule, of a complex integration Strong delivery machine – able to far exceed efficiency and de • risking targets • Solid financials, built on well-recognized areas of operational excellence |
|||
| Significant value in partnerships with leading players |
Leading national player: significant contribution to Net Income combined with high growth potential Top independent AM player High growth potential especially in non-life, with the opportunity to fully internalize the value chain |
|||
| 1. On performing Loans - |
reference date: 30/06/2021 | 8 |
- Source: BBPM elaboration on Istat Dataset "Prodotto interno lordo lato produzione" Edition Dec. 2020
2016/2019 ("Merger") Plan: mission accomplished, with strong outperformance in Asset Quality, Cost Efficiency and Capital targets
| E-MARKET SDIR |
|---|
| CERTIFIED |
| Main items | 2015 | 20192 Target |
2019 Actual |
Challenging environment (2017-2019), % |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euribor 3M |
||||||
| Gross NPE stock |
€31.5bn1 | €23.2bn | €10.1bn | +0.1 | ||
| Asset quality | Gross NPE ratio | 24.8%1 | 17.5% | 9.1% | 0.1 2019 2017 2018 |
|
| Net NPE ratio | 15.7% | 11.1% | 5.2% | -0.1 | ||
| Branches (#) | 2,417 | 2,082 | 1,717 | -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.38 |
||
| Cost efficiency |
Staff (#) | 25,073 | 22,560 | 21,950 | -0.32 | |
| Operating costs | €3,086m | €2,909m | €2,604m | -0.5 | ||
| Total revenues | €5,117m | €5,209m | €4,293m | GDP | ||
| Profitability | Net income | €594m | €1,100m | €797m | 2 1.7 Actual 1.2 |
|
| Capital | CET1 ratio FL | 12.3% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 1.0 0.9 1.1 |
|
| position | Texas ratio | 162% | 114% | 52% | 1 |

Solid profitability despite the challenging environment3

-
Nominal values including write-offs
-
Strategic plan 2016-2019
-
Delta vs original assumptions: Euribor (+0.10% Target vs -0.38% actual); GDP growth (+1.0% target vs, 0.3% actual); Change in perimeter: disposal of Gestielle and others; Reduced NII contribution from NPE
9
Banco BPM reacted promptly to the Covid-19 crisis: acceleration towards a more flexible and digital-oriented Business Model

Business Model adapted to the new challenging scenario immediately after the outbreak of Covid-19
Service model
• New digital-based customer interaction, with strengthened use of remote banking channels and new tools and solutions (Advanced Customer Analytics, Big Data, Digital Identity, etc.)
Operating structure & employees
- Proven flexibility in cost management: ability to reduce Operating Costs by >€170m in 2020 vs. previous year
- Stronger focus on new patterns of agile work to preserve the safety of customers and colleagues, while ensuring business continuity and commercial effectiveness
Customers
• Dedicated commercial efforts immediately activated to provide our customers with adequate levels of financing, leveraging on public support measures

BBPM market share: Covid State-guaranteed loans vs. Core Customer Loans as at 30/06/20212


-
Include both Covid-related and Non Covid-related State-guaranteed loans
-
Market share of Covid State-guaranteed loans ABI/Bankit data as at end of June 2021; Market share data on Core Customer Loans as at 31 July 2021.
Back on track faster than expected: strong volume and profitability growth achieved in 9M 2021, with further derisking and solid capital


Cost of Risk, Progressive annualised data – bps

Net Profit from Continuing Operations, €m

+€227m Adj.
+€246m Adj.
+€251m Adj.
+€128m Adj.
Volumes Profitability Asset quality & solvency ratios


MDA Buffer FL, bps

- As per the EU Transparency Exercise
Solid commercial track record and reliability: ready for new credible and ambitious strategic targets

Strong evidence of commercial activity being already ahead of the 2023 targets included in the "old" strategic plan, notwithstanding a worse-than-expected macro scenario:
- Wealth Management: strong pace of investment product placements; 2021 progressively emerging as the best year since the merger
- Core Customer Loans: significant growth since 2019 – faster than previous plan expectations – seizing the opportunity of publicly guaranteed loans


2021-24 STRATEGIC PLAN
Financials & KPIs

STRATEGIC PLAN 2021-2024
New 2021-2024 Strategic Plan targets vs. old 2020-2023 Strategic Plan


STRATEGIC PLAN 2021-2024
A solid track record, fostering a strong future performance


- Calculated as Net Profit from P&L (year x)/ Tangible Shareholder Equity 31.12.XX (excluding Net Profit of the period and AT1 instruments) 2. 2017 and 2018 P&L data not fully comparable, due to different accounting standard (2017) and reclassification schemes (2017 & 2018) 3. Calculated as per the EBA EU Transparency Exercise
Key targets of the Strategic Plan 2021-2024 Profitability highlights



2021G data represent the management guidance already provided to the market with the H1 2021 results presentation
- Include net interest income, net commissions and net income from associates. 2. Excluding also AT1 from Tangible shareholders' equity
Key targets of the Strategic Plan 2021-2024 Pre-Provision Income evolution



Customer volumes
PNRR-enabled lending growth coupled with significant increase in AuM
€ bn
CAGR 2020-2024 CAGR 9M 2021-2024


- M/L-term loans (Sec. and Unsec.), Pool and Structured Finance (incl. revolving) 2. Investment products placements include AuM product and also Capital Protected Certificates
Key targets of the Strategic Plan 2021-2024 Asset quality, Capital position, Liquidity & Funding



CET1 ratio and MDA buffer
CET1 ratio Fully Loaded (%)
Solid capital position and wide buffers further improved


Capital Management actions: creating additional CET1 capital equivalent to +20 bps on a net basis over the plan horizon

| IMPACTS ON CET 1 RATIO | DETAILS | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative impact -42 bps |
Consumer Finance: expiration of Agos put option -26 bps |
▪ Expires in mid-2023 - conservatively assumed as not renewed Any restructuring agreement (e.g., put extension, IPO, ▪ etc.) might have positive impact on capital |
||
| Bancassurance -16 bps |
Base case, assuming 100% internalization and application ▪ of Danish Compromise, as in all similar Eurozone cases |
|||
| Before Basel IV tailwinds |
||||
| Capital absorbing |
Profamily run-off +10 bps |
▪ Progressive run-off of historical consumer finance portfolio (~€0.5bn RWA) coming from former BPM subsidiary |
||
| Positive impacts |
Real Estate Optimization +15 bps |
▪ Disposal over the plan horizon (~€0.7bn RWA) ▪ Focus mainly on properties held as investments |
||
| +62 bps | Balance Sheet Management +36 bps |
▪ Synthetic securitizations: cumulative impact of ~ +30 bps ▪ Other managerial actions (e.g.: cancellation of unused credit lines): ~ +6 bps |


2021-24 STRATEGIC PLAN
Based on 3 rock-solid Pillars, enabled by a comprehensive set of infrastructural measures

A comprehensive program embracing the whole business model


BBPM's DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION Ready for a new digital-driven service model

Main digital-enabled achievements Key focus areas
Significant reshaping and optimization of the physical distribution network
increasingly representing the key channel for customer interactions

Branch-based Remote-based


- Adoption of new Advanced Analytics and Digital marketing capabilities/ tools
- Accelerated Catalogue Remotization for Products and Services

volumes can still be
'digitalised'
Wire Transfers MAV/Bills/F24
- Data refer to 2020
3.9 4.2
10.6
2.5
2021E
Digital-driven service model – Matching the digital shift of customer attitudes and activities and pursuing paperless experience

26

-
Includes Cash Withdrawals, Wire Transfers and MAV/F24/bills
-
Annualized data based on 9M 2021 results
Digital-driven service model
Increasing the commercial focus of the distribution network


- Internal and external (outsourced) total Customer Center frontline FTE's
Digital-driven service model
Omnichannel and Analytics contributing to revenue growth


Digital-driven service model – Enabling a significant expansion of the revenue base and increased commercial focus of the network



- Annualized data based on H1 2021 results
Digital transformation enabling commercial growth throughout 4 main segments/business areas

Further development of our solid household client base through an innovative digital approach
| D I |
|---|
| 0 |
| t |
Specialization in the service model and adoption of new distribution formats to facilitate expansion into underpenetrated areas and to improve cross-selling

Family Banking Wealth Management
A constantly evolving omnichannel approach based on state-of-the-art products and financial advisory tools
SMEs Corporate & Investment Banking
Further strengthening our role as a key player leveraging on increased strategic focus and Group synergies

Family Banking Significant growth in core revenues



- Loans of Family Banking, excluding NPE 2. Core revenues of Family Banking, excluding NPE and AuM/AuC (management data; interest calculated using internal transfer rate) 3. Annualized data based on 9M 2021 results 4. Margins on loans and deposits include both volume and spread effects
Family Banking Strategic ambition, action drivers and commercial KPIs

| Selected KPIs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Omnichannel-based approach |
Target 2024 | ||||
| Fully implemented Omnichannel |
Customer-centric focus on financial needs • • Relationship Managers involved to provide advice and develop business opportunities ✓ Proactive commercial contribution from Digital branch |
Household Mortgages |
vs. €3.8bn in 2019 |
||
| Strategic ambition Futher |
Approach | ✓ Marketing automation supporting productivity/ commercial penetration realignment on selected areas (e.g. consumer finance) |
(new volumes) |
€4.6bn | vs. ~€4.3bn in 2021E1 |
| development of our solid household client base through an innovative digital approach |
Leverage on high standing product factories |
✓ Full exploitation of the collaboration with product factories: Agos and Bancassurance |
Consumer | vs. €974m in 2019 |
|
| Focus on ESG and | Customer value management approach leveraging ✓ on behavioral clustering and focusing on specific opportunities (e.g. Government guarantees on mortgage loans for younger borrowers, third age, etc.) |
Finance (new 2 volumes) |
€1.1bn | vs. ~€900m in 2021E1 |
|
| specific customer segment opportunities |
✓ refocalization on Millennials and digital customer acquisition, in full synergy with the branch network High impact of ESG driven by PNRR-related ✓ development of green mortgage loans as well as energy requalification of household Real Estate assets (Superbonus 110%) |
||||
Wealth Management
Exploit deposit base to increase AuM, with positive impact on revenues

- 9M 2021: AuM Growth of ~€4bn, of which ~€2.4bn net inflows and ~€1.6bn market effect
- 2022-24: increasing net inflows up to €4.4bn in 2024, with market effect prudently maintained below €1bn per year

- Consolidated data. Core Direct Funding includes Current Account and Deposits 2. Annualized data based on 9M 2021 results
Wealth Management
Strategic ambition, action drivers and commercial KPIs


✓ Full synergies with Anima
Wealth Management
Important contribution from

| Highlights on current status (forecast 2021) |
Strategic focus areas | Selected KPIs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Banking |
€17.4 bn volumes Direct & Indirect funding • Additional €14.8bn from other BBPM |
New Service Model |
• • • |
New customer segmentation (Institutional/UHNWI/Corporate) New ESG-focused WM approach, with a dedicated service model Reinforced network and central organization |
Indirect funding (dedicated |
Target 2024 €18.3bn |
vs. €14.6bn in 2019 vs. |
| customers/ activities1 |
Empowered | • • |
New family office services Expansion in private insurance and protection solutions |
HNWIs') | ~€15.4bn in 2021E2 |
||
| Dedicated HNWI Bank |
270 Private • Bankers/ Financial Advisors Aletti Fiduciaria • |
Value Proposition |
• • • |
Private Bankers recruiting plan New alternative and private market product offerings Empowered Academy |
o/w AuM (dedicated HNWIs') |
€14.3bn | vs. €10.5bn in 2019 vs. ~€11.3bn |
| and Aletti Suisse |
• | Dedicated SME and corporate synergies program |
in 2021E2 | ||||
| Investment Center |
~70 Financial Specialists dedicated to Banco BPM retail network |
Synergic growth strategy |
• • |
Cross-fertilization with investment banking & fiduciary services and Institutional clients dedicated digital solutions |
Fee income | €123m | vs. €87m in 2019 vs.~€100m in 2021E2 |

35 1. Includes: €7,4bn indirect funding managed deposits for Custodian Bank activities, € 6,7bn of Banco BPM customers managed by Banca Aletti (the so-called "Accreditati" ) and € 0.7bn of Institutional customers 2. Annualized data based on 9M 2021 results
New public measures generating significant business development prospects in Corporate & SME Banking
~76
~80
Super & Ecobonus: already contributing to P&L with a long-term perspective
- As of 30/9/2021: volumes ~€650m, total NII associated ~€58m, progressively booked in P&L according to maturity of underlying assets1 , net commissions ~€5m2
- Total volumes expected by end-2023: ~€3.5bn, leading to a cumulative NII contribution of ~€315m (to be booked progressively over time according to maturity of underlying assets1 )
| PNRR: a game changer for the Italian market, a unique opportunity for BBPM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambition: become a |
Reference Lending Partner: |
Impact on lending growth (Focus: B2B Loans, €bn) |
|||||
| distinctive player supporting our clients to explore and |
Financing/co-financing high-value added projects, either directly and/or through the purchase of tax credits |
31/12/2020 Growth "before" PNRR 31/12/2024E "before" |
~71 ~5 |
||||
| exploit the full potential arising from |
PNRR PNRR impact 31/12/2024E "after" |
~4 | |||||
| the PNRR throughout the whole value chain by playing 2 |
Advisor of Choice: Offering specialized consultancy services enabling our customers to seize the main |
PNRR PNRR full impact potential ~€8bn, conservatively reduced to ~€4bn in our estimates |
|||||
| pivotal roles | opportunities arising from PNRR |
• CAGR "before" PNRR: 1.8% • CAGR "after" PNRR: 3.1% |

- Maturity variable between 5 and 10 yrs depending on the characteristics of the assets 2. Net commissions generated on a one-off basis
SMEs Significant revenue growth outpacing increase in volumes



-
Loans of SMEs, excluding NPE
-
Core revenues of SMEs, excluding Wealth management, NPE (management data; interest calculated using internal transfer rate)
-
Annualized data based on 9M 2021 results
-
Margins on loans and deposits include both volume and spread effect
SMEs Strategic ambition, action drivers and commercial KPIs

Differentiated customer management Specialization in Strategic ambition
the service model and adoption of new distribution formats to facilitate expansion into under-penetrated areas and to improve crossselling
according to company size and needs
Action Drivers
Dedicated initiatives to pursue attractive opportunities

Transactional services
Advisory & financing services Relationship Manager
Composite Coverage Teams with dedicated Specialists supporting the local Relationship Managers in the most strategic service lines
- PNRR-related financing and services
- Agrifood
- State-incentivized finance
- Ecobonus/Superbonus

New Customer Loans

vs. ~€271m in 2021E1 vs. €249m in 2019 Net fees and commissions: strategic components2 €338m
Selected KPIs
Target 2024

- Annualized data based on 9M 2021 results 2. High-value added business: acquiring, trade receivables, non life insurance, consumer finance, structured finance, hedging, trade finance and other selected non-traditional services
SMEs Significant contribution expected from new SME Business Centers
New Management Model for SME clients (€5-75m turnover): serving ~45k SMEs, with loans of ~€20bn


➢ Of which ~70 SME Business Centers in areas with high growth potential for BBPM
in particular: Turin, Bologna, Padua, Vicenza, Treviso, Florence, Bari ...
➢ … with dedicated task forces of development-oriented Relationship Managers
Corporate & Investment Banking Building on a strong market position to deliver further volume and revenue growth


-
Corporate and Institutional, excluding NPE
-
Corporate, Institutional and Banca Akros, excluding NPE (management data; interest calculated using internal transfer rate)
-
Annualized data based on 9M 2021 results
-
High-value-added business: Corporate (trade finance, hedging, structured finance and pro-soluto) + Banca Akros
-
Margins on loans and deposits include both volume and spread effect
Corporate & Investment Banking
Strategic ambition, action drivers and commercial KPIs

| Action Drivers | Selected KPIs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic | Growth in high-value added businesses |
• Reinforce our Leadership position in the Structured Finance business, thanks to hiring new selected skills in structuring and strengthening syndication capabilities; Bolster our Trade and Structured Export Financing business • |
New | Target 2024 | vs. €10.1bn in 2019 |
| ambition Strengthening our role as a key player leveraging on increased strategic focus and Group synergies |
Seize the PNRR opportunity |
• Enhance liquidity and support the working capital needs of Corporate clients (Supply Chain Finance and Tax Credits) • Finance PPP projects and advise PA in funding key infrastructure projects • Focus on Specific Sectors/ Industries relevant within PNRR |
Customer Loans Fees |
€11bn | vs. ~€9.1bn in 2021E1 vs. €157m |
| Exploit Group Synergies |
Tailor-made approach and client centricity as the way to • exploit the full capabilities of Banca Akros and Banca Aletti • Facilitate clients' access to capital markets and to international M&A opportunities (through partnership with Oaklins) |
generated in high value added businesses2 |
€213m | in 2019 vs. ~€172m in 2021E1 |
|
| Core Business Optimizations |
Optimization of the risk-return profile: focus on capital • efficiency & EVA contribution • Increase in effectiveness through support/analysis tools, i.e. risk- adjusted pricing, forward looking evaluation of customer performance |
SoW3 | 12.0% | vs. 10.6% 31/12/2019 vs. 11.2% 30/09/2021 |
- High-value-added businesses: Corporate (trade finance, hedging, structured finance and pro-soluto) and Banca Akros 3. SoW of Corporate segment – target referred to end of period
Corporate & Investment Banking Investment Banking: further reinforcement of

4 business lines providing specialized support to the Group's customer base and generating "stand-alone" revenues
Core Income Breakdown and Net Profit

Main action drivers
- Investment Banking: support and develop Group client base leveraging on the international M&A network Oaklins – active in ~50 countries – with further M&A specialisation in new industry segments and facilitate Group clients' access to capital markets
- Brokerage: capitalize current leadership position in placing capabilities and brokerage activities/equity research, with further development of on-line customers and foreign investors
- Corporate & Institutional Banking: promote innovation in products (e.g. Direct Listing of Certificates and Structured insurance policies) and services (e.g. Hedging of selected commodities), with focus on digitalization and ESG-based products
- Global Markets: enhance trading/market making activities, financial engineering and hedging services
STRATEGIC GROWTH ENGINES Our high-value product factories

High growth potential, with opportunity to internalize the whole value chain
Bancassurance Asset Management

Top independent AuM player
Consumer Credit
Leading national player: significant and reliable contribution to Net Income, combined with high growth potential

BANCASSURANCE: partnerships restructured in 2021, enabling future Business Model evolution – full internalization by end-2023
Bancassurance participations: current set-up and recent developments

- Agreement with Cattolica granting Banco BPM a call option to acquire 65% of the Vera JVs
- Call can be exercised starting from mid-2023
July 2021
- Agreement with Covea granting Banco BPM a call option to acquire 100% of BPM Vita
- Call can be exercised starting from September 2021 until end-2023
Potential evolution: key elements to take into account


BANCASSURANCE
Significant opportunities, both in life and in non-life



-
"Europe" includes UK, Germany, France and Spain
-
Number of Sales transactions / Individual Customers, including automatic renewals where applicable (indexed, 2019 = 100) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Ania, ABI, ICEA, Finaccord report, EMF Group, Analyst Presentations and other market researches
BANCASSURANCE
Strong growth enabled by increased focus on the product

Highly sustainable volumes considering the total sales capacity of BBPM's network (total placements of investment products: (€14.2bn in 9M 2021; €19.6bn in 2024E)
GWP (€m)

NON-LIFE
Wide opportunity for BBPM to increase its productivity in the Non-Life insurance business (BBPM 2020 Non-Life Insurance product diffusion on individual customer base is below 15%; home insurance < 10%; health insurance < 3%) while exploiting expected market growth

ANIMA Independent asset manager, at the crossroads of potential market consolidation options

• Strong volume growth potential generated by Banco BPM's ambition in WM
• Further indirect benefits from Banco BPM's expansion in Bancassurance, leveraging on consolidated relationships with BPM Vita and with Vera Vita/Vera Assicurazioni

AGOS A consolidated value generation history in a solid business


- Relationship Managers dedicated at individual customer management level. Data refer to 9M2021


- Income from associates net of tax as equity profits are not relevant for tax purposes
BALANCE SHEET: Further strenghtening in Asset Quality and strong risk control in Financial Investments and Funding Strategies

Credit & Asset quality: Achieve and maintain the status of "low NPE Bank"
- Credible NPE strategy based on our strong derisking track record
- New monitoring & management systems set to improve our asset quality in the coming years
Financial Asset & Liability Management: Confirm and further improve Banco BPM's solid profile
- Strong Liquidity & Funding position, no reliance on ECB's extraordinary funding measures
- Active management of Bond Portfolio investments, with continuing trend aimed at reducing the share of Italian Govies



Credit & Asset Quality – Asset quality evolution elaborated starting from available estimates at national level, taking into account BBPM footprint + strong managerial actions

| Estimates at national level | "Inertial "evolution for Banco BPM | Initiatives 2020-24 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banco BPM's evolution |
footprint allows to assume a "better than-national-average" inertial |
4 strategic initiatives aimed at achieving further asset quality improvements vs. |
||||||
| Default rate, % | Analysis at district ("provincia") level: "Italian Banking Industry" Default Rate (DR) vs Banco market share. Reference date: Dec. 2020 |
"inertial" evolution | ||||||
| 2.7 | 2.0 | "Industry" DR |
BBPM loans market share |
Share of BBPM loans |
Credit risk data warehouse |
|||
| 1.6 | <1.5% | >6% | 96.2% | Credit policy strengthening |
||||
| 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 3.5% | Monitoring & EW system evolution |
||||
| 1.5%-2% | ~3% | New approach to NPE management |
||||||
| >2% | ~1% | 0.3% |

1.Reference date: 2020 for default rate; 31/12/2020 for BBPM market share and share of BBPM loans Source: Prometeia; Bank of Italy statistics
Credit & Asset Quality – New monitoring & management system set to improve our asset quality in the coming years
| ystem s | CERTIFIED |
|---|---|
| Advanced credit risk data warehouse |
• Integrated managerial and risk data Strengthen granularity enabling full data analytics –based visibility • throughout the organization supporting decision making |
1.8% 1.2% 1.0% Danger rate, % |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Strengthening of credit policies |
• Higher policy specialization by sectors (e.g. Agrifood and Real Estate) and inclusion of a dedicated Financial Sustainability module in line with EBA LOM guidelines Clearer focus on risk-reward perspective and support of ESG • initiatives (focus on CO2 reduction and energy savings) |
14.7% 12.3% Cure rate, % |
10.0% |
| Monitoring & Early Warning system evolution |
• Strengthened integration with budgeting and MBOs • New EW development, leveraging on daily bank account data and machine learning techniques • Improved risk control through workflow-driven strategies • Performance-based risk prevention, operational KPI setting and monitoring |
6.4% 3.5% 4.3% NPE Workout rate1 , % Proactive/accelerated usage of DPO/single name disposals 20.4% 18.3% 5.2% 5.1% |
21.9% 4.6% |
| New approach to NPE management |
• Full activation of the JV with Gardant allowing workout improvement in bad loans • Definition of more standardized UTP management approaches, defining quicker and more effective workout solutions • Activation of a more proactive and intense use DPOs and single name disposals |
17.3% 15.2% 13.2% 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022 estimates include conservative assumptions on exit trajectory Covid-19 pandemic |
from |
Default rate, %

New de-risking initiative: €650m additional disposals – already fully provisioned in 9M 2021
Balance Sheet – Liquidity & Funding strategy and Securities portfolio management
| Outstanding, € bn 37.5 |
Reduction of reliance on ECB funding • Progressive full reimbursement of TLTRO: leveraging on excess liquidity • Usage of "ordinary " ECB funding: ECB 9.0 |
Key Funding & Liquidity Targets |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity & Funding |
30/09/21 | funding outstanding at end 2024 expected at €9bn (wholly represented by L-TRO) YE 2024E • Reduction of ECB assets from around €28bn to around €3bn |
LCR well >140% throughout the Plan |
|
| • • |
Net Bond issuances (incl. LT repos) 2021E-2024E1 +€2.4bn unsecured bonds (Senior and Subordinated) +€11.8bn secured bonds (covered bonds, ABS & LT repos) |
NSFR comfortably >100% throughout the Plan |
Balanced share of Italian Govies
- Issues net of maturities
Securities portfolio
Further reduction of Italian Govies in a strategy oriented to preserve stable duration and sensitivities (down to <50% of total Govies at YE 2024E, vs. 59% as of 30/9/2021)
Solid buffer preserved vs MREL requirements on a continuous basis



Planning for the future
- A people-oriented approach aimed at attracting and retaining talents
- Skills and competence building, coupled with strong cost discipline
IT & processes:
New digital-enabled backbone to support the Group transformation
- Streamlined processes fully leveraging on digitalization
- €650+ m IT investments to support the architectural model, omnichannel, IT operating model and cybersecurity

People strategy – enhanced voluntary retirement scheme coupled with network rationalization actions to keep costs fully under control

- A voluntary retirement scheme involving ~1,600 HC in 2021-23 → +~500 vs. Old Plan Target
- Use of benefits from the solidarity fund, favoring generational turnover and youth employment, with ~800 new hires between 2021 and 2023
o/w: ~1,000 already retired in June 2021

• Increased ambition vs Old Plan target: > 200 further closures

People Strategy: planning for the future – A people-oriented approach aimed to attract and retain talents

People Strategy: planning for the future – Skill and competence building coupled with strong cost discipline




Technology enabling the Strategic Plan
Key initiatives 2021-2024 Selected KPIs
| Data & Analytics |
Using data to empower decisions • Evolve the Data architecture and adopt Advanced Analytics • Develop data-driven Customer Journeys |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging technologies |
Adopt technologies with transformational potential for our business • Boost IT transformation with new technology (es. Cloud native application, Machine learning, Microservices, API) • Open innovation to exploit new "external" opportunities |
Total IT investments… €650m+ cumulative |
… o/w digital-related ~€250m cumulative |
| Digital transformation |
Delivering outstanding customer experiences • Consolidate the 'Mobile first' approach in the adoption of the omnichannel model • Partnerships with fintech companies, innovation centers and universities for the use of Open Banking solutions |
'21E-'24E Evolution +70% ~135 |
'21E-'24E of IT investments, €m ~170 |
| Operational excellence |
Continuous Improvement and slimming down complexity • Create a stable operating environment leveraging on IT assets lifecycle process • DevSecOps lifecycle based on continuous development |
100 2020 2021E |
Annual avg. 2022E-24E |

Strengthen cybersecurity posture – Resilience and IT risk management

Key initiatives 2021-2024 Selected KPIs
| IT risk evaluation |
Manage security risks effectively • Deliver forward-looking visibility on IT risks to empower technology and business development • Continuous improvement of confidentiality, availability and integrity of customer data in line with regulatory requirements (GDPR, Privacy) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Security by design |
Build a future-ready cyber-resilient business Stay ahead with security research and innovation to unlock • technology adoption (e.g. Cloud, Online Services, Third Parties, ) Take advantage of DevSecOps to embed security in IT developing • lifecycle |
'21E-'24E |
| Defence in-depth |
Reduce exposure to threats and contain attacks • Layering security defence to improve detection, prevention and recovery from cyber attacks • Zero trust approach to keep pace with the evolution of threat landscapes |
|
| Resilience | A pathway from business continuity to organizational resilience Adapt the continuity plan to absorb shocks in a complex and rapidly • changing environment Enhance recovery solutions to face emerging challenges (e.g. • security threats, climate changes, etc.) |

Evolution of security investments,





ESG Integration Governance and accountability: important goals already achieved



ACTION DRIVERS
• Strengthening of our ESG commercial offering with dedicated workforce specialized in ESG
• Expansion of the range of ESG AuM products, aimed at channelling our customers' savings
• Advising Corporate and SME clients to face ESG challenges with training and workshops
• Enhancing our ESG proprietary investments
• Increasing the issuance of green and social
KEY TARGETS
| CUMULATIVE TARGET 2021-2024 | |
|---|---|
| SHARE OF NEW LENDING TO GREEN/LOW TRANSITION RISK SECTORS |
> 65% |
| (NEW LENDING)1 BBPM GREEN RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES |
€4bn |
| PURCHASE OF REAL ESTATE TAX CREDIT2 | €3bn |
| AKROS AS LEAD MANAGER OR BOOKRUNNER OF ESG BONDS |
€12.5bn |
| 2020 CORPORATE BOND PROPRIETARY PORTFOLIO: 8% SHARE OF ESG BONDS |
TARGET 2024 > 30% |
| CUMULATIVE TARGET 2021-2024 | |
| ISSUANCE OF GREEN & SOCIAL BONDS |
€2.5bn |
In addition dedicated "ESG financial" training planned for SMEs – over 1,500 hours

bonds
products and services
towards sustainable initiatives
- Mortgages granted to customers for property in classes A-B-C or renovated with energy efficiency improvements 2. Purchase of real estate tax credit related to "Superbonus 110%": tax incentives linked to energy redevelopment and seismic risk reduction operations
63


ACTION DRIVERS
- ESG factors fully integrated into BBPM's credit policies across all sectors, with tangible results already expected in 2022:
- − Exclusion or strictly selective approach for sectors with high environmental risk – representing only 2% of our loans1
- − Driving change: active support to the climate transition of our customers by dedicated forecasting tools to evaluate and stimulate the adequacy of ESG business plans
- Risk Management Framework integrated with Climate factors:
- − Full inclusion of Climate factors into RAF2 , ICAAP and stress testing starting from 2022
- − Climate-related and environmental risk factors fully embedded in BBPM's Internal Rating System by 2023
KEY TARGETS
OVER THE PLAN HORIZON
STOP NEW LENDING TO SECTORS STRONGLY AFFECTED BY CLIMATE TRANSITION:

- Mining and quarrying of hard coal
- Manufacture of coke oven products
- Coal-based energy production
NEW LENDING TO FOSSIL FUELS-RELATED SECTORS LINKED TO TRANSITION PROJECTS
> 80%
SIGNING OF:
- NET-ZERO BANKING ALLIANCE
- TCFD3
- SCIENCE BASED TARGETS INITIATIVE4

ESG Integration MILESTONE 3 - People Strategy

ACTION DRIVERS
- ESG accountability: management incentive schemes to include a selected number of KPIs connected to the different responsibility/unit/role, extended to a wider group of managers
- Diversity & Inclusion:
- Talent enhancement and increase in the share of women in managerial positions
- In-depth evaluation of the current status of D&I, including Gender Pay Gap, in order to define an effective action plan
- Reinforce programs for the reintroduction of personnel on maternity leave
- Attraction and retention of young talents: partnerships with universities, tailor made development programs
- Identification of ESG ambassadors in all corporate functions, accountable for the integration of ESG topics in our policies by 2024
| KEY TARGETS | |
|---|---|
| TARGET 2024 |
|
| SHARE OF WOMEN IN MANAGERIAL POSITIONS | > 30% |
| SHARE OF NEW HIRINGS BETWEEN 20-30 YEARS1 | > 90% |
| SMART WORKING DAYS | 500,000 |
| ESG AMBASSADORS |
> 100 |
OVER THE PLAN HORIZON
- 400,000 TRAINING HOURS FOR EMPLOYEES ON ESG THEMES
- ONGOING SUPPORT TO OUR EMPLOYEES THROUGH OUR SOLID INCLUSIVE WELFARE SYSTEM







| ACTION DRIVERS | KEY TARGETS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| • | Subscription of UN Global Compact | OVER THE PLAN HORIZON | |
| • | Supporting initiatives aimed at community resilience and wellbeing: Art and Culture, Charity, Research and Health, Education, Inclusive Sports projects. |
GRANTS FOR SUPPORT TO SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS |
~ €10m |
| • | Sustaining local social initiatives, in particular improving school equipment and rewarding talented students |
AIRC2 INSTITUTIONAL PARTNER |
5,000 researchers & 660 projects |
| • | Confirming BBPM as a strong financial partner for the Third Sector1 |
SOCIAL INITIATIVES FOR LOCAL COMMUNITIES, SCHOOLS AND STUDENTS |
> 300 initiatives |
| • | Investing in educational activities thereby fostering our ESG culture: financial education, ESG awareness, gender equality in STEM, campaigns engaging partners, suppliers and clients |
NEW LENDING TO THIRD SECTOR | > €700m |
| • | Involvement of our employees in corporate community services |
CORPORATE COMMUNITY SERVICES, ESG AWARENESS AND FINANCIAL EDUCATION |
> 10,000 hours |

- Non-governmental and non-profit-making organizations or associations, including charities, voluntary and community groups, cooperatives, etc. 2. AIRC Italian Association for cancer research. Banco BPM istitutional partner since 2019.

2021-24 STRATEGIC PLAN
Concluding remarks

Key targets of the Strategic Plan 2021-2024
| €bn | 2020 | 2021G | 2023E | 2024E | CAGR '20-'24 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit & Loss |
Total revenues | 4.15 | ~4.4 | ~4.3 | ~4.6 | +2.4% | |||
| o/w NII + Net Commissions | 3.65 | ~3.9 | ~4.1 | +3.0% | Delta'20-'24 | ||||
| o/w Associates | 0.13 | ~0.18 | ~0.28 | +21.4% | |||||
| Operating costs | (2.46) Adj. | ~(2.5) | ~(2.4) | ~(2.4) | -1.1%1 | ||||
| Pre-Provision Income | 1.69 | ~1.9 | ~1.9 | >2.1 | +6.0% | ||||
| Loan loss provisions | (1.09) Adj. | ~(0.68) | ~(0.58) | -14.6% | |||||
| Net income | 0.33 Adj. | ~0.53 | ~0.74 | ~1.05 | +33.4% | ||||
| Key ratios | Cost / Income ratio | 59.2% Adj. | ~57% | <57% | ~53% | ~(6) pp | |||
| Cost of Risk (bps) | 122 Stated | 80/90 | 58 | 48 | (74) | ||||
| RoTE2 | 3.2% Adj. | ~5% | ~7% | >9% | + >6 pp | ||||
| 30/09/21 | |||||||||
| Balance sheet & Capital |
Net customer loans | 109.3 | 108.7 | ~116.1 | ~121.1 | +2.6% | |||
| Direct funding3 | 120.1 | 121.4 | ~127.5 | ~132.0 | +2.4% | ||||
| Indirect funding4 | 91.6 | 96.6 | ~106.8 | ~111.4 | +5.0% | ||||
| Key ratios | CET1 ratio FL | 13.3% | 13.3% | ~14% | ~14.4% | Gross NPE ratio EBA definition5 2024E: 4.7% |
|||
| Gross NPE ratio | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | |||||
| Net NPE ratio | 3.9% | 3.2% | ~3% | ~2.5% |

- CAGR calculated based on 2020 costs normalized for lower variable remunerations and other covid-related savings for a total of ca. 90m vs. Adjusted data 2. Calculated as Net Profit from P&L (year x)/ Tangible Shareholder Equity 31.12.XX (excluding Net Profit of the period and AT1 instruments). 3. Excluding REPOs and including Cap. Protected Certificates. 4. Excluding Cap. Protected Certificates from AUC. 5. Calculated as per the EBA EU Transparency Exercise.
Concluding remarks


- ✓ A successful restructuring story
- ✓ Ready to start a new journey: a strengthened business model, allowing increasing effectiveness
- ✓ Ambitious targets
- Based on prudent estimates of key performance drivers
- Fully credible, taking our delivery track record into account
