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Axactor SE — Investor Presentation 2021
Jun 2, 2021
3549_rns_2021-06-02_434616e7-6c8e-4aaa-b622-8573f6030def.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Company presentation
Xtrainvestor live event
June 2nd 2021
Axactor SE Company presentation
June 2nd 2021
Presenting:
Kyrre Svae, Interim CFO
Axactor is an established European debt collection company that has grown rapidly in targeted markets
- Established in Q4 2015 with headquarters in Oslo, Norway, and is one of Europe's top-ten debt collectors
- Main focus on collection and acquisition of unsecured nonperforming loans ("NPL") from financial institutions and third-party collection ("3PC")
- Operations in six countries; Finland, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden, with 1,095 FTEs
- Portfolio acquisitions north of EUR 600m for 2019 and 2020 combined
- Geveran owns 44% of Oslo-listed Axactor SE
3 1) Share of Total income 2020 adj. for revaluations on NPLs (to get normalized level) 2) Excl. REO
Our core business areas simply explained
Non-Performing Loans (NPL) Third-party collection (3PC)
- Buy defaulted debt at discount to face value
- Price variations between markets, age and type of debt
- Example: Credit card, personal loans
- Use own highly trained personnel and systems to collect
- Profit on collecting more efficient than banks
- Gross money multiple typically between 1.7-2.5x
- Valuation based on a 15-year collection curve
Combined deals
Operational synergies (systems, personnel)
Diversification
- Traditional debt collection on behalf of external customers
- Typically a fixed fee or a commission to Axactor on the collected amount
- Low capital requirements
- Creates strong customer relationships and recurring business
- Provides pricing support for NPL acquisition
- Focus on combined forward flow and 3PC deals
Axactor follows a clear and simple niche strategy
NICHE STRATEGY
- Six carefully selected geographies
- Business-to-consumer unsecured NPLs with claim size 500 – 50,000 EUR
- Only acquiring debt originated within bank/finance segment
- Focus on first-hand portfolios of fresh debt from well-known vendors
From start-up to established player
- After five years in business, Axactor enters a new phase with increased focus on earnings
Start-up (2016-2020)
Grow revenue & scale
- Aggressive growth
- Market entries
- Establish IT and operations
Established player (2021-2024) Steady state (2025→)
Grow return on equity
- Grow size in existing markets
- Operational excellence
- Initiate dividend payments
- Take part in consolidation of the NPL industry
Grow presence
- Steady state
- Competitive cash return to shareholders
- Use superior operations to enter new markets and segments
Key Financial Highlights Q1 2021
YoY growth
NPL active forecast aligned with current performance - Supporting correct portfolio valuations going forward
Business case and active forecast versus cash collected1
-21 -20 -20 -20 -20 -21 -24 -21 -21 -22 -22 -22 -22 -23 -23 -23 -23 -24 -24 -24 -25 -25 -25 -25
- Cash collected in 2020 did not meet the original business case primarily due to Covid-19
- Active forecast is aligned with current performance
- Historic underperformance assumed lost – prudent approach
- Axactor with one of the tightest performance criteria for revaluation in the industry
Business case Active forecast Cash Collected
Key industry trends 2021
Expect IRR to converge towards historic average
- Significantly above historic IRR for Axactor
Upwards pressure
- Overhang of unsold NPLs after the pandemic
- Increased regulatory pressure on banks - Prudential backstop
- Stronger industry discipline than in '16-'18
Downwards pressure
- Most industry players with high investment capacity
- New volumes needed to avoid declining revenues
- Lower loan volumes and default rates reduces size of 2021 NPL vintage
Portfolio price level
Increasing focus on cost level in the industry
- Axactor with industry leading cost-to-collect and aiming for further improvements
NPL Cost-to-Collect & total income per market 2016-20201 (EURm)
Cost-tocollect
2
- Axactor incepted to disrupt the industry on cost-to-collect
- Continued innovation and growing economies of scale to fuel further improvements
- Strict niche strategy supporting long-term competitiveness
Trend of improving utilization of collection platform
- Different strategies to reach optimal utilization
- Capital light, recurring revenue with good margin and diversification benefits
- Synergies with NPL on operation, customer partnerships and portfolio insight
- Volumes expected to recover to pre-covid levels as societies reopen
Increased focus on 3PC
3
ESG with increasing importance
- Axactor ranked #2 in consumer finance sector by Sustainalytics1
| Axactor ESG rating |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relative performance | Rank1 | |||
| Consumer finance subindustry | 2 out of 145 | |||
| Diversified financials industry | 79 out of 733 | |||
| Global universe | 1,840 out of 13,564 |
- ESG an important part of Axactor's DNA
-
Increasing attention from all stakeholders
-
Carefully selected goals where Axactor can make a difference
- UN sustainable development goals integrated in Axactor's strategy
ESG
Why invest in the debt collection INDUSTRY?
| Driver | Comments | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Revenue growth |
• Volume sent to debt collection expected to increase as societies reopen and moratoriums end • Large NPL-volumes expected for sale - Overhang from the pandemic and Prudential backstop rules |
||
| 2 Margin expansion |
• Expect IRR to be significantly above 2016-2018 levels |
||
| 3 Valuation |
• Resilient through the pandemic, and trading with relatively low P/B compared to 10-year average • Expect industry consolidation over the next 2-3 years |
Why invest in AXACTOR?
| Driver | Comments | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth 1 |
• NPL - Expect material revenue growth next 12 months EUR ~550m1 • in est. investment capacity limit • EUR ~130m in est. replacement CAPEX • 3PC - revenues reverting to pre-covid levels and beyond |
||
| 2 Margin expansion |
• Replacing low IRR portfolios with new acquisitions • Relative improvement expected to be larger for Axactor than competitors - coming from a lower starting point • Effects of cost reduction program and economies of scale • Phasing out REO |
||
| 3 Valuation |
• Material post-covid repricing potential • Attractive target for private equity & industrial players • Industry leading cost-to-collect platform |
Axactor SE Company presentation
June 2nd 2021
Presenting:
Kyrre Svae, interim CFO
Terms and abbreviations
APM / KPI definition
| EBITDA adjusted for change in forward flow derivatives, calculated cost of share option program, portfolio | Terms and abbreviations | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash EBITDA CM1 Margin |
amortizations and revaluations, REO cost of sales and REO impairments Total operating expenses (excluding SG&A, IT and corporate cost) as a percentage of total income |
3PC | Third-party collection |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | Total interest bearing debt as a percentage of total equity | APM | Alternative Performance Measures |
| Discount | The rate of discount of original debt balance used to negotiate repayment of debt | ARM | Accounts Receivable Management |
| EBITDA margin | EBITDA as a percentage of total income | B2B | Business to Business |
| Economic growth | GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth | B2C | Business to Consumer |
| BoD | |||
| Efficient Legal system | Governmental bailiff exchanging information electronically | CGU | Board of Directors |
| Equity ratio | Total equity as a percentage of total equity and liabilities | Cash Generating Unit | |
| Estimated Remaining Collection express the expected future cash collection on own portfolios (NPLs) in nominal | CM1 | Contribution Margin | |
| ERC | values, over the next 180 months. | Dopex | Direct Operating expenses |
| Gross margin | Cash EBITDA as a percentage of gross revenue | EBIT | Operating profit, Earning before Interest and Tax |
| 3PC revenue, REO sale, cash collected on own portfolios and other revenue, excluding change in forward flow | EBITDA | Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization | |
| Gross revenue | derivatives | ECL | Expected Credit Loss |
| House pricing | House price index, development of real estate values | EPS | Earnings Per Share |
| Interest changes | The interest charged to debtors on active claims | EUR | Euro |
| Interest level | Lending rate in the market | FTE | Full Time Equivalent |
| Net Interest Bearing Debt means the aggregated amount of interest bearing debt, less aggregated amount of | IFRS | International Financial Reporting Standards | |
| NIBD | unrestricted cash and bank deposits, on a consolidated basis | NCI | Non-controlling interests |
| Opex ex SG&A, IT and corp.cost | Total expenses excluding overhead functions | NOK | Norwegian Krone |
| Payment agreement | Agreement with the debtors to repay their debt | NPL | Non-performing loan |
| Recovery rate | Portion of the original debt repaid | OB | Outstanding Balance, the total amount Axactor can collect on claims under management, including outstanding |
| Return on Equity, excluding minorities, | Net profit/(loss) to equity holders as a percentage of total average equity in period excluding Non-controlling | principal, interest and fees | |
| annualized | interests, annualized based on number of days in period | PCI | Purchased Credit Impaired |
| Return on Equity, including minorities, | Net profit/(loss) after tax as a percentage of total average equity in period, annualized based on number of days in | PPA | Purchase Price Allocations |
| annualized | period | REO | Real Estate Owned |
| Settlements | One payment of full debt | SEK | Swedish Krone |
| SG&A, IT and corporate cost | Total operating expenses for overhead functions | SG&A | Selling, General & Administrative |
| Accumulated paid principal amount for the period divided by accumulated collectable principal amount for the | SPV | Special Purpose Vehicle | |
| Solution rate | period. Usually expressed on a monthly basis | VIU | Value in Use |
| Total estimated capital commitments for | The total estimated capital commitments for the forward flow agreements are calculated based on the volume | WACC | Weighted Average Cost of Capital |
| forward flow agreements | received over the last months and limited by the total capex commitment in the contract. | WAEP | Weighted Average Exercise Price |
| Total income | Gross revenue minus portfolio amortizations and revaluations | ||
| Tracing activity | Finding and updating debtor contact information | ||