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Aareal Bank AG — Call Transcript 2022
Nov 10, 2022
11_ip_2022-11-10_eb65c58a-628f-495a-8aaa-45f4b2839429.pdf
Call Transcript
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Analyst Conference Call Q3 2022 results
November 10, 2022 Jochen Klösges (CEO) Marc Hess (CFO)
Agenda
- Highlights
- Group results
- Segments
- Funding & Capital
- Outlook
- Appendix
Highlights
Ongoing strong operating performance in Q3 despite LLP on Russian exposure
| 1 | |
|---|---|
Q3 operating profit increased by 32% to € 66 mn, despite additional LLP of € 43 mn on remaining Russian exposure
Strong earnings momentum: Q3 NII increased by 19% (yoy), NCI up by 20%
2
Strict cost discipline, strategy of growth at low marginal cost successfully executed, CIR of banking business further reduced to 39%
5
2022 capital market funding plan already fulfilled CET1 ratio (19.4%) remains at a comfortable level
Operating profit outlook 2022 confirmed1) , despite 9M-LLP on Russian exposure and negative impact of ECB's decision on TLTRO in Q4
6 Investors expect completion of qualifying holding procedure in spring 2023
1) Developments in the macroeconomic environment remain uncertain
Agenda
- Highlights
- Group results
- Segments
- Funding & Capital
- Outlook
- Appendix
Group Results
Strong earnings momentum offsetting additional LLP on remaining Russian exposure
| € mn | Q3 '21 | Q4 '21 | Q1 '22 | Q2 '22 | Q3 '22 | 9M '21 | 9M '22 | 9M Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 155 | 162 | 159 | 171 | 184 | 435 | 514 | Significant increase of 18% mainly driven by portfolio growth and first positive effects of higher interest rates |
| Loss allowance | 39 | 54 | 49 | 58 | 63 | 79 | 170 | LLP dominated by additional provision on remaining Russian exposure (9M: € 126 mn) |
| Net commission income | 56 | 71 | 64 | 68 | 67 | 174 | 199 | Both Aareon and BDS contribute to 14% increase |
| Derecognition result | 7 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 24 | Includes positive effects of elevated |
| FV- / hedge-result |
-5 | -24 | 2 | 9 | 5 | -11 | 16 | market volatility |
| Admin expenses | 125 | 135 | 153 | 142 | 128 | 393 | 423 | Reflects investments in Aareon growth. Bank largely stable despite PTO one-offs |
| Others | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -18 | -3 | |
| Operating profit (EBT) | 50 | 32 | 30 | 61 | 66 | 123 | 157 | Strong earnings momentum offsetting add. LLP on remaining Russian exposure |
| Income taxes | 27 | 20 | 11 | 22 | 24 | 67 | 57 | |
| Minorities | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | |
| AT1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 11 | |
| Consolidated net income allocated to ord. shareholders |
20 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 89 | |
| Earnings per share (€) | 0.33 | 0,16 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.73 | 1,49 | |
| after taxes (%)1) 2) RoE |
2.3 | 4.3 | ||||||
| Cost/income ratio (%)3) | 45 | 52 | 43 | 39 | 35 | 50 | 39 | Successful execution of growth at low marginal cost strategy |
1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis
2) Annualized
3) Structured Property Financing and Banking & Digital Solutions (excl. bank levy and contributions to the deposit guarantee scheme)
Net interest income (NII) / Net commission income (NCI)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Strong earnings momentum
59 64
2021 2022
Significant increase of 18% mainly driven by portfolio growth and first positive effects of higher interest rates
▪ RSF
Strong new business generation focusing on attractive return profiles while strictly adhering to unchanged conservative risk standards
▪ BDS
Rising interest rates generated significant increase in NII
- Q3 up from € 11 mn to € 26 mn (yoy)
- 9M up from € 33 mn to € 49 mn
Both Aareon and BDS contribute to 14% increase
- Aareon
- 9M NCI increased by € 23 mn to € 180 mn (+15% yoy)
- Shift from license to SaaS/Subscription making further progress - SaaS shows strong growth of >20% in 9M (yoy), supported by strong organic performance
- BDS
- 9M NCI increased by € 3 mn to € 23 mn (+15% yoy)
0
Admin expenses / Loan loss provisions (LLP)
High cost discipline, LLP dominated by provisions on remaining Russian exposure
Admin expenses Reflects investments in Aareon growth, bank largely stable despite PTO one-offs Bank1):
- 9M € 245 mn (vs. € 237 mn yoy); incl. € 12 mn PTO one-offs
- Growing at low marginal costs; CIR2) beating own target
- Improved CIR at 39% demonstrates very efficient operations based on high cost discipline
Aareon:
- Increase driven by M&A related costs
- 9M: € 178 mn (vs. € 156 mn yoy)
Dominated by additional provision on remaining Russian exposure
- Additional € 43 mn provision on Russian exposure due to the worsening prospects of a rapid de-escalation in Ukraine
- Total of € 126 mn Russian LLP represents 60% of gross exposure of € ~210 mn2)
- Post provision net exposure is ~30% of 10/21 appraisal value
- 9M LLP ex Russia of only € 44 mn is evidence of high quality portfolio and strong recovery after Covid-crisis
1) Structured Property Financing and Banking & Digital Solutions
2021 2022 thereof RUS
33 49
7
39
2) Structured Property Financing and Banking & Digital Solutions (excl. bank levy and contributions to the deposit guarantee scheme) 3) Incl. interest
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Russia
6
Non performing loans (NPL) NPLs further reduced
- NPLs include € ~210 mn remaining Russian exposure
- One new NPL in Q3, office in New York
- Reduction predominantly in the hotel segment, in Q4 all US-hotels back to performing
- ➢ End of October 2022: Underlying NPL portfolio ex Russia significantly reduced by € ~390 mn (-25%) in 2022 witnessing post Covid-19 recovery
Agenda
- Highlights
- Group results
- Segments
- Funding & Capital
- Outlook
- Appendix
Segment Highlights
Growth in all three segments continued
Structured Property Financing
- Strong new business generation of € 6.9 bn in 9M strictly adhering to unchanged, conservative risk standards
- Portfolio increased to € 31.9 bn (12/2021: € 30.0 bn) above original target partly FX driven, continuously growing green loans portfolio
- Strong loan margins mitigate the temporarily elevated funding spreads
- Fast recovery of KPIs to pre-Covid crisis levels is evidence of high overall portfolio resilience
Banking & Digital Solutions
- NCI increased by 15% to € 23 mn in 9M (€ 20 mn in 9M 2021)
- Rising interest rates generate significant increase in NII
- Ø-deposit volume at € 13.5 bn (from € 12.4 bn in Q4 '21)
Aareon
- Switch of revenue model from license to SaaS/Subscription underpins healthy recurring revenue growth
- Share of recurring revenues above 70%
- New management focus on execution of Aareon's growth plan and efficiency of product portfolio
New business generation strictly adhering to unchanged conservative risk standards
Newly acquired business
- 9M Ø-margin1) of 227 bps (FY plan 2022: ~205 bps)
- Conservative 9M Ø-LtV of 56% (54% in Q3)
- 9M shows logistics with largest share
- Green loans2):
€ ~600 mn new business in 9M, additional € ~800 mn existing loans qualifying after clients' application
1) Pre FX
2) Governed by "Green Finance Framework"
Portfolio volume further increased, healthy KPIs at pre-Covid levels
KPIs continue to improve with the Covid-19 pandemic subsiding, overall portfolio-LtV and YoD back on pre-crisis levels
Overall LtVs are declining on improvements in all segment
- Hotel LtVs at 58% (62% at 12/20)
- Retail LtVs at 57% (61% at 12/20)
- Office LtVs at 57% (58% at 12/20)
- Logistic LtVs at 53% (55% at 12/20)
Overall YoDs are increasing on improvements in the hotel and retail segment, YoD in office segment down
- Hotel YoD at 8.1% (3.0% at 12/20)
- Retail YoD at 9.7% (8.8% at 12/20)
- Office YoD at to 6.8% (8.1% at 12/20)
- Logistic YoD at 8.6% (8.7% at 12/20)
Segment: Banking & Digital Solutions
NII benefitting from rising interest rates
NCI Positive development in NCI as planned
- CollectAI contributing to NCI development
- Growth on recurring revenues on banking-, software fees
Deposit volume increased significantly above target level of € ~12 bn supporting CREF portfolio growth
- Rising interest rates generating significant increase in NII at segment and group level
- Limited outflow of deposits expected due to
- Rising energy prices
- ESF1) reform in 2023
1) ESF: Deposit Protection Fund of the Association of German Banks (Einlagensicherungsfonds des Bundesverbandes deutscher Banken e.V.)
Segment: Aareon
Ongoing revenue growth, management focus on execution of Aareon's growth plan and efficiency of product portfolio
Note: Numbers not adding up refer to rounding 1) PS (Professional Services) = Consulting business
- Switch of revenue model from license to SaaS/ Subscription underpins healthy recurring revenue growth
- SaaS growth accelerated to > 20% yoy, supported by strong organic performance
- Run-rate recurring revenues is expected significantly above 70% going forward
- Sales revenues increased by € 27 mn to € 221 mn (+14% yoy); PS1) continues to be challenging
- Digital revenues up 22%, thereof 13% organically
- ERP revenues up 11%, thereof 4% organically
- Adj. EBITDA increased by € 5 mn to € 47 mn (+12% yoy)
- Integration of Swedish Momentum Software Group AB well underway
- New management focus on
- Implementation / Execution of Aareon's growth plan, organically and M&A
- Efficiency of product portfolio
- Improving Aareon in an evolutionary transition to a rule of 40 SaaS company
Agenda
- Highlights
- Group results
- Segments
- Funding & Capital
- Outlook
- Appendix
Funding & Capital Conservative line-up
Funding
- Funding mix further diversified
- Successful 9M funding activities
- 2022 funding plan already fulfilled despite PTO-related uncertainties and very challenging environment
Capital
- Comfortable capital ratios supporting controlled portfolio growth, strictly adhering to unchanged conservative risk standards
- Capital ratios significantly above regulatory requirements
Funding
2022 funding plan already fulfilled in Q3; funding mix further diversified
Funding mix further diversified
- Cooperation with Raisin/Deutsche Bank started in Q2 extended to include Weltsparen in Q3 to access retail deposits as additional funding source
- Commercial Paper Program successfully launched, offering ECPs in Green format and EUR, GBP & USD. Outstanding volume of € ~800 mn
- Second issue Rating from Moody's (A3) launched in Q2
Successful 9M funding activities
- Pfandbrief and Senior totalling € ~4.5 bn incl.
- 2 Green Senior Benchmarks (€ 1 bn)
- 4 Pfandbrief Benchmarks (€ 2.6 bn)
- € 1.2 bn ECP incl.
- € 700 mn conventional ECPs in EUR, USD and GBP (€ ~400 mn outstanding)
- € ~500 mn additional Green ECPs (€ ~400 mn outstanding)
- Strong and proven access to the institutional private placement market with unsecured and mortgage backed products of € >800 mn
Capital Maintaining robust capital base
CET1 ratio
- Very solid throughout Covid-19 crisis
- 9M increase mainly due to retention of originally announced dividend pay-out (1.60 € per share), retained profits for the current year and reduced pension liabilities
- Solid T1-Leverage ratio at 5.4%
RWA
▪ Increase from CREF portfolio growth compensated by portfolio quality improvements
1) Underlying RWA estimate based on the revised CRSA (phase-in) output floor, resulting from a "higher of" comparison with the RWA estimate based on the CRR in its current version plus revised AIRBA requirements for commercial property finance in line with the draft version dated 27 October 2021 of the European implementation of Basel IV by the European Commission which officially enter into force as of 1 January 2025
Agenda
- Highlights
- Group results
- Segments
- Funding & Capital
- Outlook
- Appendix
Outlook 2022
Operating profit guidance confirmed despite 9M-LLP on Russian exposure and negative impact of ECB's decision on TLTRO in Q4
| METRIC | 2021 | OUTLOOK 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▪ Net interest income |
€ 597 mn | € 660 - 690 mn (€ 600 - 630 mn) |
|
| ▪ Net commission income |
€ 245 mn | € 270 - 290 mn |
|
| p u |
LLP1) ▪ |
€ 169 mn | € 140 - 180 mn upper end incl. € 126 mn Russia (€ 100 - 140 mn) |
| o Gr |
▪ Admin expenses |
€ 528 mn | € 550 - 580 mn (€ 540 - 570 mn) |
| ▪ Operating profit Net income2) ▪ ▪ Earnings per share (EPS) |
€ 155 mn € 53 mn € 0.89 |
€210-250mn lower end (€210-250mn) €120-150 mn3) lower end (€120-150mn) €2.00-2.503) lower end (€2.00-2.50) |
Outlook 2022: Developments in the macroeconomic environment remain uncertain
| METRIC | 2021 | OUTLOOK 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| s | Structured Property Financing |
▪ REF Portfolio ▪ New business |
€ 30.0 bn € 8.5 bn |
32 bn4) € 31 - (€ ~31 bn) € 7.5 - 8.5 bn (€ 7 - 8 bn) |
| nt e m g e S |
Banking & Digital Solutions | ▪ Deposit volume ▪ NCI |
€ 12.4 bn € 28 mn |
€ >12 bn (€ ~12 bn) ~13% CAGR |
| Aareon | ▪ Revenues ▪ Adj. EBITDA |
€ 269 mn € 67 mn |
€ 305 - 325 mn € 73 - 78 mn |
Note: ( ) = original guidance Feb. 2022
1) Incl. value adjustments from NPL fvpl
2) Net income attributable to ordinary shareholder
3) Based on expected FY-tax ratio of ~36%
4) Subject to FX development
20
Key takeaways
Aareal's next level strategy pays off
Ongoing strong operating performance even in a difficult environment; operational profitability and efficiency sustainably strengthened
Outlook confirmed
Aareal Bank confirms its 2022 outlook despite 9M-LLP on Russian exposure, PTO-related one offs and negative impact of ECB's decision on TLTRO in Q4
Well prepared…
…for the challenges ahead, thanks to Aareal Bank's earnings power and financial strength
Group Results
Aareal Bank Group Results Q3 2022
| 01.07.- 30.09.2022 |
01.07.- 30.09.2021 |
Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| € mn | € mn | ||
| Profit and loss account | |||
| Net interest income | 184 | 155 | 19% |
| Loss allowance | 6 3 |
3 9 |
62% |
| Net commission income | 6 7 |
5 6 |
20% |
| Net derecognition gain or loss | 2 | 7 | -71% |
| Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) | 4 | -3 | |
| Net gain or loss on hedge accounting | 1 | -2 | |
| Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method | 0 | 0 | 0 % |
| Administrative expenses | 128 | 125 | 2 % |
| Net other operating income / expenses | -1 | 1 | |
| Operating Profit | 6 6 |
5 0 |
32% |
| Income taxes | 2 4 |
2 7 |
-11% |
| Consolidated net income | 4 2 |
2 3 |
83% |
| Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests | -1 | 0 | |
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG | 4 3 |
2 3 |
87% |
| Earnings per share (EpS) | |||
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) | 4 3 |
2 3 |
87% |
| of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders | 3 9 |
2 0 |
95% |
| of which: allocated to AT1 investors | 4 | 3 | 33% |
| Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) | 0.65 | 0.33 | 97% |
| Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) | 0.04 | 0.03 | 33% |
1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.
2) Earnings per ordinary share are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to ordinary shareholders of Aareal Bank AG by the weighted average of ordinary shares outstanding during the financial year (59,857,221 shares). Basic earnings per ordinary share correspond to diluted earnings per ordinary share.
23 3) Earnings per AT1 unit (based on 100,000,000 AT1 units with a notional amount of 3 € each) are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to AT1 investors by the weighted average of AT1 units outstanding during the financial year. Earnings per AT1 unit (basic) correspond to (diluted) earnings per AT1 unit.
Results Q3 2022 by segments
| Structured Property Financing |
Banking & Digital Solutions |
A a r e |
Aareon | Consolidation/ Reconciliation |
Aareal Bank Group |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.07.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.07.- 30.09. 2021 |
||
| € mn | |||||||||||
| Net interest income | 162 | 146 | 2 6 |
1 1 |
-4 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 155 | |
| Loss allowance | 6 3 |
3 9 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 6 3 |
3 9 |
||||
| Net commission income | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 1 |
5 0 |
-3 | -3 | 6 7 |
5 6 |
|
| Net derecognition gain or loss | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 | |||||||
| Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) | 4 | -3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | ||||||
| Net gain or loss on hedge accounting | 1 | -2 | 1 | -2 | |||||||
| Net gain or loss from investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| accounted for using the equity method | |||||||||||
| Administrative expenses | 5 4 |
5 9 |
1 7 |
1 7 |
6 0 |
5 2 |
-3 | -3 | 128 | 125 | |
| Net other operating income / expenses | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | |
| Operating profit | 5 1 |
5 1 |
1 7 |
1 | -2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 6 6 |
5 0 |
|
| Income taxes | 1 8 |
2 8 |
6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 4 |
2 7 |
|||
| Consolidated net income | 3 3 |
2 3 |
1 1 |
1 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 4 2 |
2 3 |
|
| Allocation of results | |||||||||||
| Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling interests |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | |||
| Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG |
3 3 |
2 3 |
1 1 |
1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 4 3 |
2 3 |
Results 9M 2022
| 01.01.- 30.09.2022 |
01.01.- 30.09.2021 |
Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| € mn | € mn | ||
| Profit and loss account | |||
| Net interest income | 514 | 435 | 18% |
| Loss allowance | 170 | 7 9 |
115% |
| Net commission income | 199 | 174 | 14% |
| Net derecognition gain or loss | 2 4 |
1 5 |
60% |
| Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) | 2 2 |
-7 | |
| Net gain or loss on hedge accounting | -6 | -4 | 50% |
| Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method | -2 | -1 | 100% |
| Administrative expenses | 423 | 393 | 8 % |
| Net other operating income / expenses | -1 | -17 | -94% |
| Operating Profit | 157 | 123 | 28% |
| Income taxes | 5 7 |
6 7 |
-15% |
| Consolidated net income | 100 | 5 6 |
79% |
| Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests | 0 | 2 | -100% |
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG | 100 | 5 4 |
85% |
| Earnings per share (EpS) | |||
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) | 100 | 5 4 |
85% |
| of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders | 8 9 |
4 4 |
102% |
| of which: allocated to AT1 investors | 1 1 |
1 0 |
10% |
| Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) | 1.49 | 0.73 | 104% |
| Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 10% |
1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.
2) Earnings per ordinary share are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to ordinary shareholders of Aareal Bank AG by the weighted average of ordinary shares outstanding during the financial year (59,857,221 shares). Basic earnings per ordinary share correspond to diluted earnings per ordinary share.
25 3) Earnings per AT1 unit (based on 100,000,000 AT1 units with a notional amount of 3 € each) are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to AT1 investors by the weighted average of AT1 units outstanding during the financial year. Earnings per AT1 unit (basic) correspond to (diluted) earnings per AT1 unit.
Results 9M 2022 by segments
| Structured Property Financing |
Banking & Digital Solutions |
A a Aareon r e |
Consolidation/ Reconciliation |
Aareal Bank Group |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.01.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2021 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2022 |
01.01.- 30.09. 2021 |
|
| € mn | ||||||||||
| Net interest income | 475 | 406 | 4 9 |
3 3 |
-10 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 514 | 435 |
| Loss allowance | 170 | 7 9 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 7 9 |
|||
| Net commission income | 5 | 6 | 2 3 |
2 0 |
180 | 157 | -9 | -9 | 199 | 174 |
| Net derecognition gain or loss | 2 4 |
1 5 |
2 4 |
1 5 |
||||||
| Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) | 2 2 |
-7 | 0 | 0 | 2 2 |
-7 | ||||
| Net gain or loss on hedge accounting | -6 | -4 | -6 | -4 | ||||||
| Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method |
0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -1 | |||
| Administrative expenses | 200 | 193 | 5 4 |
5 3 |
178 | 156 | -9 | -9 | 423 | 393 |
| Net other operating income / expenses | -4 | -21 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -17 |
| Operating profit | 146 | 123 | 1 6 |
-1 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 123 |
| Income taxes | 5 2 |
6 8 |
6 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 5 7 |
6 7 |
||
| Consolidated net income | 9 4 |
5 5 |
1 0 |
0 | -4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 5 6 |
| Allocation of results | ||||||||||
| Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling interests |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG |
9 4 |
5 5 |
1 0 |
0 | -4 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 5 4 |
Preliminary results – quarter by quarter
| Structured Property Financing |
Banking & Digital Solutions |
Aareon | Consolidation / Reconciliation |
Aareal Bank Group | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | Q2 2022 |
Q1 | Q4 2021 |
Q3 | Q3 | Q2 2022 |
Q1 | Q4 2021 |
Q3 | Q3 | Q2 2022 |
Q1 | Q4 2021 |
Q3 | Q3 | Q2 2022 |
Q1 | Q4 2021 |
Q3 | Q3 | Q2 2022 |
Q1 | Q4 2021 |
Q3 | |
| € mn | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net interest income | 162 | 163 | 150 | 154 | 146 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | - 4 |
- 3 |
- 3 |
- 2 |
- 2 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 171 | 159 | 162 | 155 |
| Loss allow ance |
63 | 58 | 49 | 54 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 58 | 49 | 54 | 39 | ||||||||
| Net commission income | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 61 | 61 | 58 | 64 | 50 | - 3 |
- 3 |
- 3 |
- 3 |
- 3 |
67 | 68 | 64 | 71 | 56 |
| Net derecognition gain or loss |
2 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
| Net gain / loss from fin. instruments (fvpl) |
4 | 12 | 6 | -23 | - 3 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 6 | -23 | - 3 |
|||||||||||
| Net gain or loss on hedge accounting |
1 | - 3 |
- 4 |
- 1 |
- 2 |
1 | - 3 |
- 4 |
- 1 |
- 2 |
|||||||||||||||
| Net gain / loss from investments acc. for using the equity method |
0 | - 1 |
0 | 0 | 0 | - 1 |
0 | - 1 |
0 | 0 | - 2 |
0 | - 1 |
0 | |||||||||||
| Administrative expenses |
54 | 61 | 85 | 63 | 59 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 60 | 65 | 53 | 55 | 52 | - 3 |
- 3 |
- 3 |
- 3 |
- 3 |
128 | 142 | 153 | 135 | 125 |
| Net other operating income / expenses |
- 2 |
1 | - 3 |
8 | - 1 |
0 | - 1 |
0 | - 1 |
0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - 2 |
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - 1 |
2 | - 2 |
5 | 1 |
| Operating profit | 51 | 69 | 26 | 31 | 51 | 17 | - 2 |
1 | - 3 |
1 | - 2 |
- 6 |
3 | 4 | - 2 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 61 | 30 | 32 | 50 |
| Income taxes | 18 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - 2 |
1 | 6 | - 1 |
24 | 22 | 11 | 20 | 27 | |||||
| Consolidated net income |
33 | 45 | 16 | 17 | 23 | 11 | - 2 |
1 | - 3 |
1 | - 2 |
- 4 |
2 | - 2 |
- 1 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 39 | 19 | 12 | 23 |
| Cons. net income attributable to non controlling interests |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - 1 |
0 | 1 | - 1 |
0 | - 1 |
0 | 1 | - 1 |
0 | |||||
| Cons. net income attributable to ARL shareholders |
33 | 45 | 16 | 17 | 23 | 11 | - 2 |
1 | - 3 |
1 | - 1 |
- 4 |
1 | - 1 |
- 1 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 39 | 18 | 13 | 23 |
Asset quality
CREF portfolio by country
€ 31.4 bn highly diversified
1) Performing CREF-portfolio only (exposure)
CREF portfolio by property types
€ 31.4 bn highly diversified
30
Non performing loans (NPL)
Deep dive
- NPL classification depends on a variety of triggers (e.g. arrears, NOI, DSCR, LtVs, yields, prices, marketability, …)
- NPL classification might be triggered even if no nominal loss will be made but contractual payments are or potentially will not be received in line with the agreement (timing / amounts)
- Current NPL portfolio:
- 27% of NPL portfolio with LtV <100%
- 32% of NPL portfolio with DSCR >100%1)
- ➔ Only 50% of NPL portfolio with LtV >100% and DSCR <100%
➔ Meaningful share of NPLs with decent risk parameters
Implications of the Russian war against Ukraine
New Russian NPL ~60% provisioned; No exposure in Ukraine
Russian operations
- Rep office with 2 employees in Moscow
- Russia defined as non-core market about a decade ago
- Last newly acquired business in 2012
- From more than € 1 bn in 2010 portfolio significantly reduced to a net exposure of around € ~200 mn (YE 2021)
Russian exposure
- Two financings with a net exposure of € 212 mn as of 30.09.2022, EURO denominated; one financing almost written off
- The second financing has been classified as NPL in Q1 as loan due in Q4 2022 and as of today on-time payback is uncertain
- In 9M 2022 € 126 mn LLP booked (Stage 3); remaining net exposure of € 86 mn
- Remaining net exposure equals ~30% of 10/2021 market value
- Property characteristics:
- Office complex in Moscow
- Nearly fully let to international and Russian tenants
- Client able and willing to pay (DSCR >> 100%)
- Currently Russian sanctions hinder cash transfer out of Russia
As of today impacts from geopolitical and macroeconomic environment are not predictable. However the markdown reflects volatility seen in other crisis in the past.
Spotlight: Inflation impact on real estate markets
General
- Various protection mechanisms installed between bank and client as well as between client and tenant
- Various mitigating factors depending on property type (eg. Structural changes, Corona recovery, Higher construction costs / material shortage supporting existing properties)
- Cap Rates: stable so far, still high spreads compared to alternative investments
| Protection mechanism | ||
|---|---|---|
| Property type | Relationship Bank – Client (loan contract) |
Relationship Client – Tenant |
| Office | + Generally DSCR/ICR covenants |
+ Rents in many cases index-linked + Mix of various tenants + Rental agreements with different maturities |
| Retail | + NOI 12M forward looking + Interest: Hedged rate (eg contractually agreed cap) or fixed rate |
+ Rent includes sales revenue based component → inflation caused sales revenue increase supporting rent + Mix of various tenants + Rental agreements with different maturities |
| Logistic | + Cash sweep in case of covenants breach |
+ In many cases portfolio transactions → mix of various tenants + Tenants regularly with group support + Rents in many cases index-linked |
| Hotel | + Various covenants (eg DSCR/ICR, YoD, LtV) + NOI 12M retrospectively1) + Interest: Hedged rate or fixed rate + Cash sweep in case of covenants breach |
+ Rent per room changeable short-term |
| Well protected against "normal" inflation. Stagflation could trigger challenges |
1) For risk assessment also considering forward looking NOI
Segments
Segment: Aareon Q3 2022 P&L and other KPIs
| P&L Aareon segment - Industry format1) € mn |
Q3'21 | 9M'21 | Q3'22 | 9M'22 | ∆ Q3 '22/'21 |
∆ 9M '22/'21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales revenue ▪ Thereof ERP ▪ Thereof Digital |
62 46 16 |
195 145 49 |
75 54 20 |
221 161 60 |
21% 19% 26% |
14% 11% 22% |
| Costs2) ▪ Thereof material |
-54 -12 |
-169 -38 |
-64 -14 |
-190 -41 |
18% 15% |
12% 9% |
| EBITDA | 8 | 25 | 11 | 32 | 42% | 25% |
| Adjustments2) | -5 | -16 | -4 | -15 | -19% | -7% |
| Adj. EBITDA | 13 | 42 | 15 | 47 | 17% | 12% |
| EBITDA | 8 | 25 | 11 | 32 | 42% | 25% |
| D&A / Financial result | -9 | -24 | -13 | -37 | 45% | 51% |
| EBT / Operating profit | -2 | 1 | -3 | -5 | 62% | <-100% |
| R&D, RPU and operating cashflow | |
|---|---|
| Revenue per unit (RPU) – LTM (€) |
22 |
| R&D spend as % of software revenue – YTD |
26% |
| YTD Operating Cash Flow (€ mn) | 19 |
- RPU (last 12 months) at 22 €. With cross-selling opportunities to be harvested
- R&D spend slightly above 25%, but expected to stay in line with communicated pattern of 25% threshold
-
Operating Cash Flow at € 19 mn (9m'21: € 16 mn) higher – better operational result
-
1) Calculation refers to unrounded numbers
- 2) Incl. New product, VCP, Ventures, M&A and one-offs
Segment: Aareon
Aareon is now the clear leader in Europe – with expansion potential and a total addressable market > € 2 bn
Growth of units3) from ~10 mn (2019) to more than 13 mn (H1/2022)
- 1) Acquisition of Momentum Software Group AB as of 27 June 2022
- 2) Combining Private SMB and Social Housing markets
- 3) Unit growth taken into account on a pro rata temporis basis; Additionally, Aareon has also expanded other related business models
ESG in our daily business
Putting sustainability at the core of our decisions
Aareal Bank "Green Finance Framework – Lending" put into place
- Aareal Bank's Green Finance Framework Lending confirmed through a Second Party Opinion (SPO) by Sustainalytics
- Ambition to incorporate an ESG assessment into our day-to-day lending activities
- Explicit customer demand in Aareal Bank's green lending approach internationally identified and interest is high for the new product
- First green lending within the new framework provided since Q2 2021
ESG in our lending business ESG in our financing activity
Aareal Bank "Green Finance Framework – Liabilities" to form basis for inaugural Green Bond
- In addition to the lending framework, Aareal Bank has implemented an accompanying liability-side/use-ofproceeds framework that allows issuance of green financing instruments (GFF - Liabilities)
- The Green Finance Framework Liabilities is intended to not only reflect our sustainable lending activities but also our strategic approach towards sustainability
- Bond issuances under this framework invite open discussion and engagement with investors on the progress we have made and on the path forward
Continue to enlarge climate transparency in the portfolio
- Portfolio transparency and data accumulation significantly improved in 2021 and improvement of transparency for both the existing and the new lending to be continued
- Aareal Bank involved in international initiatives to calculate financed emissions (PCAF)
- Additional disclosure will be made available following the issuance of a green financing instrument as Aareal Bank intends to issue an allocation and impact report in connection to outstanding green financing instruments
More than 21% of the portfolio fulfills Aareal's demanding Green Finance Framework
| Aareal Green Finance Framework (GFF) in place | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Property Financing: ▪ Meets EU Taxonomy criteria and / or ▪ and / or ▪ defined in Aareal GFF |
Requirements to qualify as green property Certified with an above-average ratings Classified as nearly zero-energy building (nZEB) / thresholds as |
+ | Green Loan Rider: Customer agrees to Maintaining "Aareal Green Finance Framework" requirements during the term of the loan |
Green Loan: Combination of ▪ Green property1) and ▪ Agreement |
|
| Eligibility category |
Eligibility | criteria (alternatives) | |||
| Green Buildings | 1. EU taxonomy compliant: Buildings meet the EU Taxonomy criteria according to the EU Commission Delegated Regulation, Chapter 7.7 "Acquisition and ownership of existing buildings" |
▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ |
2. Green building certification: BREEAM: "Very Good" and above LEED: "Gold" and above DGNB: "Gold" and above Green Star: "5 Stars" and above NABERS: "4 Stars" and above HQE: "Excellent" and above |
falls below 75 kWh/m² p.a. 140 kWh/m² p.a. 65 kWh/m² p.a. |
3. Energy efficiency: Classified as a nearly zero-energy building (nZEB) and / or property the maximum energy reference values Residential Office, Hotel, Retail Logistics |
| Energy efficiency upgrades |
1. EU taxonomy compliant: Modernisation measures meet the EU Taxonomy criteria acc. EU Commission Delegated Regulation3) |
2. Upgrade to Green Building: Completion of the measure brings the property up to the green building standard defined above. |
at least 30%. | 3. Energy efficiency improvement: Completion of the measure results in an energy efficiency improvement of |
1) All buildings within a financing have to qualify as green buildings according to Aareal GFF
2) Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials
3) Chapter 7.2 "Renovation of existing buildings"
ESG: Our goals
Contributing to green transformation of the economy
| Growing our impact - mitigating climate change and fostering transition |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green expansion of financing business | € 2 bn by 2024 Additional green loan volume |
||||
| 2 | Optimisation of funding mix | € 1 bn in 2022 New allocation of green funding |
||||
| 3 | Providing transparency for global CREF portfolio | 20% by 2022 Verified green properties |
||||
| 4 | Limiting our own Greenhouse Gas emissions | Carbon neutrality by 2023 Of our business operations worldwide |
||||
| 5 | Expansion of innovative solutions with ESG impact (BDS and Aareon) |
Growth targets by 2025 Identification of enabler products by 2022 |
||||
Setting the tone at the TOP - ensuring Aareal is run on strong ESG principles
-
- 6 ESG governance with enhanced Board's oversight
- ESG integration in business-, credit-, investment-, risk- and refinancing strategies as well as decision making process 7
CEO responsibility Regular Board engagement
Major Milestones in Sustainable Finance Strategy achieved
Increasing transparency reveals strong share of green properties
Significant progress1) in ESG transparency and performance:
Verified2) ESG-Transparency for
~45%
of our portfolio through documentation of proof in IT systems
Since the launch in June 2021
€ ~1.9 bn
qualified for Green Loan
Green Property Financings2)
21% 17% YE 2021
Since implementation of Green Finance Framework – Funding
> € 1.5 bn
has been issued via Senior Preferred Green Bonds as well as via the green Commercial Paper Program
of CREF4) portfolio
with more potential subject to ongoing validation
- 1) As at 30.09.2022
- 2) Valid certificate is documented
- 3) Conversions: Existing loans converted into green loans
- 41 4) CREF excl. not directly by properties collateralized business
21% of total CREF portfolio classified as Green Property Financings
€ 6.4 bn1) (21%) of total CREF portfolio fulfilling Aareal Banks Green Finance Framework and are classified as "Green Property Financings", thereof
- € 4.1 bn included in green asset pool for underlying of Green bond issues
- € 2.3 bn green property financings mainly for technical reasons not (yet) included
1) CREF excl. not directly by properties collateralized business Portfolio data as at 30.09.2022 – ESG Data as at 30.09.2022
42 2) Valid certificate is documented
Consistently positive rating results
Rewarding Aareal's ESG performance
Note: Results and Benchmarks as at 21/10/2022
Real Estate is transitioning to a more sustainable, digitised and connected future
Fostering this transition
| ESG1) is (and has always been) fundamental to our business |
▪ Lasting value of our properties is in our own interest ▪ No financing of controversial industry sites / projects ▪ Environmental quality is a major consideration in business origination and quality deficiencies will have an impact on the structuring of the loan or may reject the transaction |
|---|---|
| Integration of ESG in decision making initiated group-wide |
▪ 2011: Introduction of corporate ESG compliance ▪ 2017: Focus on developing sustainability performance of core business ▪ September 2020: ESG@Aareal initiative initiated - "ESG Integration" throughout the group embedding ESG strongly into the business and decision-making processes |
| Strategic sustainability management based on five criteria |
▪ Measurable contribution to sustainability transformation [AMBITION] ▪ Investable on the asset and liability side [INVEST] ▪ Retain existing customers and attract new ones [CLIENT] ▪ Manage relevant ESG risks [RISK] ▪ Comply with regulatory requirements [REGULATION] |
| We have impact! | ▪ Contributing to the transition to a low carbon economy with every green financing ▪ Enabling customers to improve their sustainability performance with every smart digital solution connecting multiple parties and equipment |
1) Environmental, Social, Governance
Treasury Portfolio, Funding & Liquidity
Treasury portfolio
€ 6.5 bn of high rating quality and highly liquid assets operates as collateral or additional liquidity
As at 30.09.2022 – all figures are nominal amounts 1) Composite Rating
Funding Strong Mortgage Cover Pool and Aaa Rating for Pfandbriefe
Pfandbriefe funding cornerstone of wholesale issuance
- Cover pool of € 15.3 bn incl. € 1.0 bn substitute assets diversified over 19 countries
- High quality assets: first-class mortgage loans (mortgage-lending-value 55.8%)
- Mortgage-lending-value with high discount from marketvalue
- Ø LtV of the mortgage cover pool 32.6%
- Moody´s has calculated a 'Aaa' supporting overcollateralisation ratio of 17.0% on a PV basis
- Over-collateralisation on a PV basis as of 9M 2022 22.2%
- High diversification within property types
- No assets in the covered pool from Russia and Ukraine
Funding & Liquidity
Diversified funding sources and distribution channels
Liquidity Well balanced maturity profile
Conservative liquidity management throughout the cycle
- Long-term funds on average have longer maturities than finance portfolio
- Substantial buffer in regulatory liquidity ratios (LCR / NSFR) despite strong growth in portfolio and difficult economic and capital markets environment
- High quality treasury portfolio with continuous efforts to further improve / optimise structure
- NSFR at 122%2)
- LCR at 222%2)
Funding & Capital
MREL ratios far above regulatory requirements
Senior Preferred have significant protection from subordinated liabilities and own funds
- Ample buffer to MREL requirements
- Senior Preferred remains the predominant senior product, though Senior Non-Preferred remains a key element of the funding strategy
- The rundown remains manageable with a number of long-term liabilities providing significant levels of subordination
-
8% TLOF is the bank's upcoming binding MREL requirement, to be met with 100% subordinated liabilities
-
1) 8% TLOF with 100% subordinated debt (i.e. Own Funds and SNP). MREL requirements are only updated once a year
- 2) MREL-eligible Senior Non-Preferred Debt >1Y according to contractual maturities
- 3) Considering regulatory adjustments
50
4) CET1 assumed to be constant over time
5) Senior Preferred, excluding structured unsecured issuances
Regulation
Capital - SREP (CET 1) requirements
Demonstrating conservative and sustainable business model
AT1: ADI of Aareal Bank AG
Interest payments and ADI of Aareal Bank AG
Available Distributable Items (as of end of the relevant year)
| 31.12. | 31.12. | 31.12. | 31.12. | 31.12. | 31.12. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| € mn | ||||||
| Net Retained Profit ▪ Net income ▪ Profit carried forward from previous year ▪ Net income attribution to revenue reserves |
122 122 - - |
147 147 - - |
126 126 - - |
120 120 - - |
90 90 - - |
30 90 66 - |
| + Other revenue reserves after net income attribution |
720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 840 | 840 |
| Total dividend potential before amount blocked1) = |
842 | 870 | 846 | 840 | 930 | 936 |
| ./. Dividend amount blocked under section 268 (8) of the German Commercial Code |
235 | 283 | 268 | 314 | 320 | 386 |
| ./. Dividend amount blocked under section 253 (6) of the German Commercial Code |
28 | 35 | 42 | 40 | 43 | 36 |
| = Available Distributable Items1) | 579 | 552 | 536 | 486 | 566 | 515 |
| + Increase by aggregated amount of interest expenses relating to Distributions on Tier 1 Instruments1) |
46 | 32 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 20 |
| = Amount referred to in the relevant paragraphs of the terms and conditions of the respective Notes as being available to cover Interest Payments on the Notes and Distributions on other Tier 1 Instruments1) |
625 | 584 | 560 | 509 | 587 | 535 |
Public Tender Offer
Public tender offer
Aareal remains committed to a strong reputation in capital markets and will continue to meet highest transparency standards after successful PTO
- Advent, Centerbridge and CPP Investments1), highly regarded investors managing a multi billion USD portfolio globally, are highly supportive of "Aareal Next Level" strategy and existing Aareal Bank Group composition
- Their sector expertise will support Aareal's accelerated growth ambitions
- Aareal continues to be a reliable player in capital markets and a transparent and rated frequent issuer of investment grade instruments
- Fulfilling highest transparency standards regarding our investor's engagement, disclosure content and frequency
- 84% of Aareal Bank shares tendered in June in response to Atlantic BidCo's public tender offer; closing is subject to finalisation of regulatory clearances by Atlantic BidCo. and is expected in Q4/22 or Q1/23
1) CPP Investment Board Europe S.àr.l, a wholly owned subsidiary of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board ("CPP Investments")
- 2) Indirect holding of participation in Atlantic BidCo GmbH
- 3) Minority representation in governance structure
56 4) Closing based on tendered shares of ~84% is subject to finalisation of regulatory clearances by Atlantic BidCo GmbH
Definitions and contacts
Definitions
| = New Business |
New business = Newly acquired business + renewals |
|---|---|
| = | CET 1 |
| Common Equity Tier 1 ratio | Risk weighted assets |
| = | Operating profit/income ./. loss attributable to non-controlling interests ./. AT1 coupon |
| Pre tax RoE | Average IFRS equity excl. non-controlling interests, AT1 and dividends |
| = | Admin expenses (excl. bank levy, et al.) |
| CIR | Net income |
| = Net income |
Net interest income + Net commission income + Net derecognition gain or loss + Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) + Net gain or loss on hedge accounting + Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method + Net other operating income / expense |
| = | Available stable funding |
| Net stable funding ratio | Required stable funding |
| = | Total stock of high quality liquid assets |
| Liquidity coverage ratio | Net cash outflows under stress |
| = | operating profit ./. income taxes ./. income/loss attributable to non controlling interests ./. net AT1 coupon |
| Earnings per share | Number of ordinary shares |
| = Yield on Debt |
NOI x 100 (Net operating income, 12-months forward looking) (without developments) Outstanding incl. prior/pari-passu loans |
| = CREF-portfolio |
Commercial real estate finance portfolio excl. private client business and WIB's public sector loans |
| = REF-portfolio |
Real estate finance portfolio incl. private client business and WIB's public sector loans |
| NPL-ratio | NPL-exposure acc. CRR (excl. exposure in cure period) |
| = | Total REF Portfolio |
Contacts
Jürgen Junginger
Managing Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 2636 [email protected]
Sebastian Götzken
Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3337 [email protected]
Carsten Schäfer
Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3616 [email protected]
Karin Desczka
Manager Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3009 [email protected]
Julia Taeschner
Group Sustainability Officer Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3424 [email protected]
Daniela Thyssen
Manager Sustainability Management Phone: +49 611 348 3554 [email protected]
Leonie Eichhorn
Sustainability Management Phone: +49 611 348 3433 [email protected]
Robin Weyrich
Sustainability Management Phone: +49 611 348 2335 [email protected]
Disclaimer
© 2022 Aareal Bank AG. All rights reserved.
This document has been prepared by Aareal Bank AG, exclusively for the purposes of a corporate presentation by Aareal Bank AG.
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include statements about Aareal Bank AG's beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them; and they are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, most of them being difficult to predict and generally beyond Aareal Bank AG's control. This could lead to material differences between the actual future results, performance and/or events and those expressed or implied by such statements.
This presentation refers to the voluntary public takeover offer published by Atlantic BidCo GmbH on 26 April 2022. These references are provided for general information purposes only and do not constitute an offer to enter into a contract for the provision of advisory services or an offer to purchase securities. Any decision by investors to sell their Aareal Bank shares should be based on the public tender offer documentation published by Atlantic BidCo GmbH.
Information from Atlantic BidCo GmbH or other third parties is considered to be reliable but has merely been compiled without having been verified. Therefore, Aareal Bank AG does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the third-party data.
The securities of Aareal Bank AG are not registered in the United States of America and may not be offered or sold except under an exemption from, or pursuant to, registration under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Therefore, Aareal Bank AG does not give any warranty, and makes no representation as to the completeness or correctness of any information or opinion contained herein. Aareal Bank AG accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this presentation.
Aareal Bank AG assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or any other information contained herein.